29Metals Limited (29M) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 29Metals Limited June Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. James Palmer, CEO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, all. It's James Palmer here, and thanks for joining the 29Metals quarterly activities update for the June quarter for 2024, my first as CEO. So today, we'll be speaking to the presentation released this morning alongside our June quarter report. And joining me here are: Ed Cooney, our Chief Operating Officer; Peter Herbert, our Chief Financial Officer; and Kristian Stella, our Group Executive, Corporate Development. So yes, look, it's great to be speaking with you all today. I've met a number of you since joining partway through this reporting quarter, and I look forward to meeting many of you over the coming days, weeks and months. I had to spend the first few weeks and months just listening, learning and, recently, shaping and executing our strategy and plans and look forward to speaking more about that over the coming days and weeks. In the meantime, let's get into the quarter that was. So briefly turning to Slide 3 before getting into the quarter results. This highlights many of the attributes of the 29Metals portfolio that certainly attracted me to the company. So specifically, large Australian-based copper endowments with lots of upside potential. In my first near 90 days in the role, I've invested time visiting our sites, meeting our people and many of our key stakeholders and doing a lot of listening. It's clear to me the enormous potential embedded in the 29Metals portfolio. And importantly, we have a team committed to realizing that potential for the benefit of all stakeholders. Slide 4 lays out our key priorities. So health and safety first always. And then across the group, discipline in productivity and in costs and in the way that we improve. At Golden Grove, it's all about the drumbeat of delivery to maximize free cash flow and moving Gossan Valley forward in the near term. And for Capricorn Copper, it's all about the imperatives for a sustainable restart with an immediate focus on meaningful water reduction. Slide 5 is the summary of the June quarter, a quarter that certainly provides a snapshot of the opportunity available for the company. So safety, single digits for the TRIF and our significant potential incidents reducing. Copper up, zinc up, OpEx down, CapEx up and mining at Golden Grove's highest grade ore bodies Xantho Extended, is ramping up, enabled by the significant investment in mine debottlenecking and surface infrastructure upgrades since the IPO. The value in the ground at Capricorn Copper was highlighted by the exceptional high-grade copper drill results received post quarter end, with reduction on the water levels, the immediate focus and first step towards unlocking that value as we progress the site towards a sustainable restart of operations. So I'll shortly pass to Ed to talk through Golden Grove in some additional detail. I'll then provide an update on Capricorn Copper prior to handing to Peter to provide the corporate and finance update for the quarter. So over to you, Ed.

Thanks, James, and morning, everyone. So moving on to Slide 7 of the pack. So copper production for the quarter was 6,400 tonnes. So that's the higher copper production in the quarter under 29Metals ownership and up 11% relative to the prior quarter, really largely driven by higher tonnes milled. Zinc production was also up at 15-odd thousand tonnes. It's about 200% up on the prior quarter and really driven by a higher proportion of zinc ore milled and higher zinc grades and recoveries. Further improvement at Xantho Extended in terms of development rates continued during the quarter, which combined with good paste fill cycles earlier in the March quarter enabled the higher zinc and precious metals production. And the site team continued to pursue continuous improvement opportunities in partnership with Byrnecut with multiple enabling technologies being adopted to improve mining efficiencies at depth. And some examples of this include commencement of remote loading of development ore, remote monitoring of air quality and ventilation fans to really reduce reentry times and maximize paste time. So the month of June saw another record for development advance at Xantho Extended. And for the remainder of the year, we'd anticipate maintaining sort of first half development advanced. Our second half ore production from Xantho Extended is expected to be higher than the first half in order to achieve our full year guidance for zinc production, which will obviously be second half weighted. Moving on to Slide 8. The higher production also contributed to a pleasing result on unit costs for the quarter with C1 costs and AISC of above USD 14 per pound and USD 2.83 per pound, respectively. Mining and processing unit costs were in line with the prior quarter, with byproduct credits and stockpile movements really the key drivers of the lower unit costs quarter-on-quarter. And on a full year basis, the site costs continue to track to 2024 guidance ranges. TSF4 project is important to us. It remains on track for completion early in the 2025 March quarter with approvals from DEMIRS now received. The civil contract has been awarded, mobilization and clearing activities undertaken during the quarter. Fabrication of the thickener has been completed and deliveries of components landing on-site, and the team are now focused on concrete floors within the thickener pad and finalizing remaining tender packages. Full year growth capital guidance range has been increased to $35 million to $40 million. Previously, it was $20 million to $25 million. And the priority for capital estimate for '24 was subject to final design and based on preliminary designs undertaken in late '21 and 2022. And approximately half of the TSF4 increase relates to additional scope, including certain electrical infrastructure and civils that were not included in the prelim design and the other proportion of the increased costs relates to labor, contract indirects, material supply, foreign exchange, et cetera. In addition to the TSF4 increased costs, we do anticipate some higher capitalization of Xantho Extended development over the year and also some additional activities to support Gossan Valley. And works during the quarter to progress Gossan Valley towards the final investment decision included submission of the application material for regulatory approvals. We undertook a mine plan design review, commenced some geotech drilling of the planned box-cut and raise bore locations really to derisk in future. And we also issued tenders for key work packages. And really upon development, Gossan Valley is expected to enhance overall oil production and scheduling flexibility by providing an additional independent and relatively shallow production front at Golden Grove. But I'll now hand back to you, James, to talk through Capricorn Copper.

Great. Thanks, Ed. So yes, with operations at Capricorn Copper now ramped down and suspended, attention turns to progressing the imperatives for a future restart, which are outlined on Slide 10. So short-term water reduction, long-term water solutions and life of mines tailing capacity. So in the mid- to long-term, we need to invest in replacement of the water treatment plant damaged in the March 2023 extreme weather event, and we need a pathway for long-term tailings for the asset. In the short-term, the priority is on reduction of water levels and works to establish this sustainable water balance footing to the asset. To this end, I'm going to spend some time to provide some clarity on just how much water we have on site and what our water reduction plans are and also provide a brief update on where we're at on tailings. So Slide 11 outlines some of the investment made to progress the site towards a sustainable water balance post the March 2023 extreme weather event. Specifically, the enhancement of water diversion infrastructure, additional mechanical evaporation and investment in bulk release infrastructure, which was commissioned during the June quarter. So while mechanical evaporation is an important component of the overall water management strategy, bulk release of treated water will be required to rebase site water levels in the nearer term and effectively manage future high rainfall wet seasons. On Slide 12, we outline the key work streams that have been completed and those that are in progress, so to optimize the capability for efficient and responsible release of treated water during the upcoming wet season and beyond. As mentioned, the infrastructure to enable treated water release from the Mill Creek Dam, or MCD, was commissioned during the June quarter. This increases release capability up to 100 megaliters a day. So a tenfold uplift on rates achievable during the last wet season. In addition, 2 key work streams are in progress to allow us to utilize the full potential of this infrastructure. Firstly, works in progress to repurpose the processing plant as an interim water treatment plant, which will provide additional and more efficient water treatment than existing options. And then secondly, engagement with the regulator to streamline the approvals process for bulk release. Slide 13 provides a summary of the water reduction task ahead of us. So overall, we have around 1.5 gigaliters of net water reductions required to dewater Esperanza South and bring water levels below the maximum operating levels and towards the water levels prior to the extreme weather event. So how are we going to do that? Slide 14 shows a simplified flow sheet outlining how we're going to reduce the water levels on-site. As mentioned, utilizing the recently commissioned treated water release infrastructure, which releases from the MCD, is critical to enabling meaningful reduction of water levels in the short term. Once we convert the process plant to an interim water treatment plant, we'll treat the water in the MCD ahead of the wet season, and then, again, 1.5 gigaliters of water inventory is required to dewater Esperanza South and bring water levels below the maximum operating levels. The MCD holds just under 0.5 gigaliter. So without accounting for wet season additions or evaporation, we need to release the equivalent of the MCD volume 3 to 4x to remove 1.5 gigaliters of water. So is that possible? A lot will need to go right in the upcoming wet season to achieve that outcome. The team will work hard to control the things that we control, but some things, like weather, are not in our control. So more than 1 wet season is likely required to achieve the meaningful water reductions that we need. Hence, this puts the timing of a potential restart into 2026. So tailings, Slide 15, an options review was initiated post suspension of operations to ensure the optimal path forward for [ assigned ] tailings. Prior to the suspension of operations, the team were pursuing TSF3 as the preferred option, as this was seen as having the highest likelihood of supporting continuity of operations. The review to date is identified, particularly an alternative site, Magazine Creek, which has the potential to provide a lower cost option along with other potential benefits, but with likely longer approvals time frames. Prior to the suspension decision, approvals for additional capacity from historic facilities were being pursued, again, with continuity of operations in mind. So although they remain as options, with the time afforded by the suspension of operations, focus has moved to long-term tailings solutions. So in summary, for Capricorn Copper, our immediate focus is on the reduction of water levels on site and preparedness for the upcoming wet season and beyond. We see a pathway for the site towards a sustainable water balance and life of mine tunneling solutions, and these are critical steps towards unlocking the significant value in the ground of Capricorn Copper, highlighted by the exceptional high-grade drill results we received post quarter. So to this end, Slide 16 highlights the opportunity ahead for us at Capricorn Copper. I've talked a lot about how we're going to deal with the immediate challenges, but I did want to put the recent drilling results on this slide, as I think it talks to the opportunity at the asset. So 2 days ago, we released fantastic drill results that included 7.2 meters at 4.8% copper and confirmed the discovery of a new mineralized zone. We also had resource extension intercept of 45.4 meters at 2.5% copper beside the existing Mammoth Mineral Resources estimates. The results from this shore campaign were to follow up the previous phenomenal results released last year that included 36 meters at 3.9% copper into the Woolly target zone, as well as 70 meters at 2.8% and 48 meters at 2.7% copper, which will resource extension drilling to Esperanza South. So 7.2 meters at 4.8%, 45 meters at 2.5%, 36 meters at 3.9% and 70 meters at 2.8% copper. And all of these results around existing 64.8 million tonne resource with established development and infrastructure, all in a 1,900 square kilometer land position within the highly prospective Mount Isa Inlier. There's lots of copper yield. We just need to take care of the water issues, so that we can unlock the value of the copper in the ground. So with that, I'll hand over to Peter to provide a finance and corporate overview of the June quarter. Peter?

Thank you, James. And I'll be speaking to Slide 18 of the presentation materials. I'll start with the revenue outcomes of 29Metals unaudited revenue of $127 million for the June quarter was a decrease on the prior quarter results of 18%. This decrease was due to lower copper and zinc metal sales realized during the quarter. Copper as a percentage of total revenue was approximately 50%, a decrease on the prior quarter of 59%, reflecting lower production of sales at Capricorn and a greater proportion of byproduct revenue in Golden Grove sales relative to the prior quarter. These sales included a sale of a lead concentrate parcel. Efforts to identify costs and productivity improvement opportunities continued in the June quarter. Specifically, corporate cost reductions and rightsizing post suspension of operations at Capricorn were implemented. This reduces our full year 2024 corporate cost guidance to between $28 million and $31 million, previously $32 million to $36 million, with pursuit to further cost reductions ongoing. Capricorn Copper June quarter cash outflows reflect lower copper sales and the unwind of working capital, including a reduced -- a reduction in accounts receivable, one-off costs associated with the suspension of production, including employee and contracted termination payments and ongoing capital works to ensure readiness for the upcoming wet season. Going forward, cash outflows are expected to more closely align with the lower suspension period operating and capital expenditures. The expected ranges for rest of the year capital and operating costs are between $10 million to $15 million and $20 million to $22 million, respectively, and incorporate increased commitments during the quarter towards the '24-'25 wet season preparedness. Reduction of cash outflows are expected into 2025 as compliance and water reduction capital projects are completed and operating costs reduced to reflect lower steady-state activity levels and ongoing efforts to implement cost reduction opportunities. During the quarter, we strengthened the balance sheet with the finalization of the subordinated offtake finance facility with Glencore and drew USD 20 million under that facility before the quarter end. Debt servicing during the quarter included a USD 10 million term loan principal repayment and for the rest of the year, term loan repayments stepped down to USD 2.5 million per quarter. The assessment of stamp duty payable in relation to the acquisition of Golden Grove was finalized at $27 million, consistent with our disclosures in our financial statements. An installment payment arrangement was also finalized with stamp duty plus interest payable in 12 equal monthly installments, which commenced in July. The applicable interest rate prescribed for this arrangement is 11.7%. Discussions with insurance continued during the June quarter, advancing the company's claim in respect to the 2023 extreme weather event. These discussions continue to be constructive and seek to resolve all matters in connection with the balance of the surface claim and matters relating to the underground portion of the claim. 29Metals finished the quarter with unaudited available liquidity of $130 million, consisting of $85 million of cash and the undrawn offtake facility remaining of USD 30 million. This compares to available liquidity of $106 million at the end of the March quarter. Thank you very much. I'll hand back to you, James.

Great. Thanks, Peter. Thanks, Ed. So just closing, as we spoke to in Slide 3, the team and I understand the immediate priorities for the business for the rest of 2024. We must continue to focus on safe, sustainable improvement in productivity and cost management across the business. We must continue the drumbeat of delivery. The Golden Grove is establishing now that we're firmly into Xantho Extended. And at Capricorn Copper, we must continue to manage our environmental responsibilities, manage costs and progress the imperatives for a sustainable restart of operations with the immediate priority and focus on reduction of water levels. And we must do all of this without ever compromising our commitment to health, safety and well-being. So I'm looking forward to work with the Board and the team here at 29Metals to deliver all of this and look forward to speaking to shareholders, other stakeholders over the coming days, weeks and months on our priorities and our plans. So with that, happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Daniel Morgan with Barrenjoey.

James, you've had a short period of time to review the business. So I was just wondering if you could just give us some perspectives on coming into the business, what was perhaps better than expected. And what are some challenges that maybe you haven't thought about prior to joining?

Daniel, yes, well, I think that we met very early in [ mine ] in the piece. So I probably gave you some of those perspectives. Maybe before I do, I mean, I definitely intentionally spent a lot of time, both inside the company as well as the outside really just listening to people's perspectives on exactly as you outlined there, what are the issues. And then from that, as you said, actually, some things were better and some things, I think, have been well-publicized challenges. Maybe within that, we've got some less well-publicized opportunities. So I'd probably put it into 3 buckets overall. For the ones that you raise there, what was better? I mean I was very impressed with Golden Grove the moment I walked in. Very good standards on the sites. I've seen a lot of sites, a lot of BHP sites over the last couple of decades and a lot of other sites over that time. Very impressed with the standards, which leads to safety, which leads to discipline. And then going right down to the bottom down there in Xantho, again, the standards and the partnership that we've got there with Byrnecut. So that was certainly was one of the highlights. On the challenges, yes, I mean, they were not necessarily worse than I already had the view. I just got more detail on them. So obviously, Capricorn Copper, the water issue there. And hopefully, as you've seen, really just then bringing clarity and spelling out what are the priorities, including near-term priorities, particularly around the water at Capricorn Copper has been a big part of in the conversation, particularly with the regulators as well as lots of other stakeholders. So yes, in these 2 buckets, I could probably add 3 or 5 to each of those, but that will be my first big impressions, Daniel.

And the opportunity at Xantho Extended, obviously, there's going to be -- or projected to be a big lift in grade and financial outcomes for the company. Just wondering, as a new person in the company, is that -- looking at that opportunity, do you think that's still on track? Or does it need to be further derisked because we're expected to receive that benefit in 2025?

Yes. So again, I was very impressed when I could see the investment that had been made, could see -- spend time with the mine planning team, time with the execution team. And I think you can see in one of the slides that we provided there. Again, that one struck me when I just saw the bill that the team had had. And then you can see there, leveling out had a very good number. So that's been substantially derisked. And I think you've seen that now in our quarterly results.

Yes. And a big feature of this quarter's results was just the lag of sales versus production. It's my estimation, there's about $70 million of cash you didn't book. Is that about accurate?

I think there's a few -- there's always a few moving pieces in there, Dan. It's Peter Herbert here. One thing to note is, this quarter, we had a sale of lead parcel. We typically sell only one of those a year, give or take, it depends on how quickly we can accumulate a commercial parcel. So you'd have to normalize for that. You also got to make sure you take into account the sort of the payabilities on the metals, not just take production less sales because we report on sort of payable metal basis. So I think I'd probably say we try and give a reasonable proxy here as being the sort of the stockpile movement as sort of a better sort of back of the envelope calculation there for that movement. We'd probably say that's on the more conservative side, subject to where commodity prices go, of course, because there's also some other moving pieces there, including the difference between ore mined and ore milled. So that's -- hopefully, that's a bit more of a steer as to where we see sales going. And naturally, the other moving piece here is just the timing of shipments, which always -- we're always trying to sell as much as we can each quarter, of course, but we are subject to those vagaries as sort of a general caveat. Hopefully, that's been helpful, Dan.

Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie.

Just wanted to maybe touch on your first few months at 29Metals. Maybe what your top 3 priorities are? How you see the strategy of the business moving forward? And I noticed in your opening remarks, you touched on moving the Gossan Valley projects forward in the medium term. Do you see that as a critical item over the next couple of years for 29M?

Yes. Great. Yes. We've certainly outlined what I do see and what we as a team see as the priorities. But I think I would -- I mean, I never go past that safety first, always. And again, I've mentioned to Daniel there, I was very impressed with Golden Grove, but it's one that you can just never rest on good standards, good discipline leads to good safety, and it leads to good OpEx, good CapEx, good, everything else you're chasing. So discipline has been the thing that I've seen elements of and we just need to drive on delivery. Then specifics, so, I mean, Golden Grove, just getting -- now that we're into Xantho, just getting that delivery that I think you can start to see. That's where the cash flow is, obviously, going to come from. So maximizing that is a priority. Gossan Valley, as you mentioned. So yes, bringing that forward for decision as well as the next one. So Cervantes and it's a highly prospective area. So what are the longer-term plans for Golden Grove? But yes, they'd be the big 3 for Golden Grove. In Capricorn, yes, I mean, it is certainly when I have been speaking with regulators, actually, priority 1, 2, 3 are getting the near-term, short-term water reduction, that everything else becomes a possibility once we deal with that. But then you do need to quite quickly be moving to the long-term sustainable water solutions and the life of mine tailings. And then exploration at Capricorn Copper, you can see there, we've got lots and lots of copper. We just need to deal with the issues that are on the surface at present. So, yes, if I just sort of have those 3 buckets, those are the big ones. You mentioned there on strategy. So if I go right to the top on, we're playing in the right field around copper, megatrends of electrification, decarbonization, et cetera. We've got lots of copper. We just need to be able to demonstrate that delivery.

Maybe on the water release at Capricorn. On the bulk treated water release, my understanding is you can only do that during the wet season when the creek is flowing. What are those subject to regulatory approvals required to release that bulk treated water into the river during the upcoming wet season? And maybe if you could just talk through that.

Yes. Great. I might try to add for a bit more of the detail on that. But yes, certainly, I mean, we can release with the infrastructure that we've invested in now and as I mentioned there on Mill Creek Dam. So to the existing EA, we can release that Mill Creek Dam water once we get it treated to the right levels. What our conversations with the regulators are is, how can we release even more water? So we can release water as soon as the current EA is in the wet season when the creek is flowing when you meet the quality components. What we want to be able to do is to streamline that release, so that when we're able to, we can, and we want to be able to release the volumes that we need to be able to make a restart possible as early as we can. Just before I throw to Ed, if there's any more detail you want to add, Ed, I'll just say they're with the regulator. So -- and with the prescribed project status, so the coordinated general, we've been able to reset and then build some really strong relationships with the regulator, getting everyone focused, so internally, externally on that near-term water release being the priority. We'll have lots of time to talk around the sustainable water and the longer-term tailings. We need to focus on the short-term water has been the focus. But, Ed, anything you'd like to add?

Just very quickly, I mean, it's really the crux of your question. The current EA does authorize release up to the certain thresholds. So we have an annual cap and a limit imposed on a 72-hour window. So what we're seeking to do is remove those caps and update some of the release water quality criteria along with certain dilution ratios when the creek flows. So that's the essence of what we're trying to achieve. And that submission is in with the regulator, so engagement ongoing.

And maybe into 2025, the costs for managing that water, it seems to be about $15 million a quarter for the rest of this half of the year. What are you thinking it would be in 2025 to manage that?

Yes. So it will definitely step down. I mean just to understand the physical nature of the activity at the moment, we're investing a lot in terms of that Mill Creek Dam release infrastructure. We are refurbishing the lime slaking plant, installing new pumps pipeline. So there's a lot of physical infrastructure going in, and hence, the capital investment at the moment ahead of the wet season. Once that is in place, really the physical activity drops back to lime dosing and release probably the rental of some pumps, but order of magnitude, the cost of treating and releasing water or step down materially from the investment in the infrastructure.

Yes. I might just add to Ed's point there, when Daniel asked the question, what was sort of some of the first impressions? Actually, that was a really good first impression when I got to Capricorn Copper. You can see where the money has been spent, and you'll be able to see that from some of the photos. So we've just got much increased infrastructure there in pumping, piping, therefore, very believable. We'll be able to release, as you said, we've got tenfold capacity on it. You can see where the money has been spent. It's a good standard project.

The next question comes from Daniel Roden with Jefferies.

I just wanted to, I guess, unpack having the ability to release additional water is all well and good, but you still don't have effective tailings capacity at Capricorn Copper yet. And I understand it's with the regulator, but I just wanted to unpack, I guess, your expectations around Magazine Creek versus TSF3 versus potential other options in the near term. So when you do get to 2026 and the water levels are amenable for a restart in production, what are your expectations around the tailings situation is going to be around that time?