AB Ignitis grupe (IGN1L) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ignitis grupe's 3M 2025 Earnings Call and Strategic Plan 2025 to 2028 Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Head of Investor Relations. Aine, please go ahead.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ignitis grupe's earnings call. Today, we will present the results for the first 3 months of 2025 and outline our strategic plan for the period of 2025 to 2028. We will also address any questions you may have. Please be advised that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect management's current beliefs, expectations and assumptions, and actual results may differ materially. With that, I now invite the management team to commence the presentation.

Good afternoon, everyone. We entered 2025 with strong momentum reflected in the performance results and strategic plan execution. First, our first quarter adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 188.5 million, representing 3.7% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued strategy delivery, which is marked by Green Capacities portfolio growth by 0.5 gigawatts to 8.5 gigawatts. And with successful project execution among significant progress across our portfolio, our first Kelme wind farm, which is a part of the largest onshore wind project in Baltics has reached COD. Third, despite our investment program, we maintained a robust balance sheet with the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio standing at 2.98x. Let me now take the development of each business segment over the first quarter of this year. First, the progress of our largest business segment, Green Capacities. As mentioned, we increased our total portfolio by 0.5 gigawatts to 8.4 gigawatts. This growth is attributed to the acquisitions of a hybrid development project of 285 megawatts in Lithuania, which includes a 200-megawatt wind farm and 65-megawatt solar farm and 20-megawatt battery energy storage system and the acquisition of wind farm co-development projects of 204 megawatts in Estonia. Next, our secured capacity and installed capacity over the reporting period remains unchanged, stood at 3.1 gigawatts and 1.4, respectively. However, after the reporting period, we increased our installed capacity by 114.1 megawatts to 1.5 gigawatts. The first Kelme wind farm with total investments of around EUR 190 million has reached COD in April. In terms of composition of our portfolio, it continues to be dominated by wind projects with a share of 5.5 gigawatts. Most of the projects are being developed in Lithuania, accounting for 4.6 gigawatt, and yet the flexibility part remains a sizable part of our portfolio with a capacity of 1.5 gigawatts. Now an update on our project execution. Whilst already mentioned progress of the third Kelme wind farm project completion and acquisitions since the end of 2024, we also made a significant progress of our solar portfolio. Our solar portfolio in Latvia, which includes Stelpe, Varme and Tume projects with a total combined capacity of 413 megawatts is the largest solar portfolio under construction in the Baltics. There, we have now installed all solar panels for Varme project and around 75% of solar panels installed for Stelpe project. Both projects are expected to reach the COD in 2025. Meanwhile, the construction works are also underway and 2 main projects with expected COD in 2026. Next, we continue the expansion of Kruonis pumped storage hydroelectric power plant, which is one of the largest energy storage facilities in Europe according to the plan. The first segment of the new penstock made of rolled and welded sheet metal have already arrived. When completed, the new unit will bring the total capacity up from 0.9 gigawatts to 1 gigawatt. At the time, all 5 turbines will be able to run at full load for around 10 hours. We expect these projects to reach COD in 2026. Now let me cover the progress achieved in Networks, Reserve Capacities and Customers & Solutions business segments. In Networks business segment, we are successfully continuing the smart meters rollout. Total number of installed smart meters has reached 1.1 million. In total, we will install more than 1.2 million smart meters by 2026. In Reserve Capacities business segment, for the second time, we have won Polish capacity mechanism auction for ensuring 381 megawatts and 484 megawatt capacity availability in first and fourth quarters of 2026 for around EUR 8.2 million and EUR 11.5 million, respectively. We will ensure electricity supply during potential stress events in the Polish energy system. Additionally, after the reporting period, the regulator passed a resolution, which adopted the new mechanism for distributing additional profits earned. It applies to the new manual frequency restoration reserve services, both market was launched this year provided by Kruonis pumped storage hydroelectric power plant and Kaunas hydroelectric power plant and to the isolated system operation services provided by Elektrenai Complex. Adopted new mechanism ensures that the additional profit earned in the Baltic states is shared with Lithuanian consumers by reducing the regulated electricity tariff. Up to now to Lithuanian consumers, we will return around EUR 50 million. Finally, on Customers & Solutions business segment, we continue to expand the EV charging network across the Baltics. Since 2024, year-end, we installed 195 charging points and now our EV charging network in total [ concludes ] 1,286 EV charging points across Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Having covered our progress during first quarter 2025 on our business segments, I would now like to share the progress we have made in driving decarbonization initiatives. During the reporting period, we increased our net electricity generated by 57.4% to 1.2 terawatt hours, driven by the generation at Elektrenai Complex, which is a part of Reserve Capacities business segment in relation to the new services provided. Additionally, the growth was supported by new assets, including Kelme Wind Farm, Silesia Wind Farm II and Vilnius CHP biomass unit. On the other hand, the green share of generation decreased by 19.3 percentage points to 60.7% due to the proportionately higher electricity generation at Elektrenai Complex. Looking into our greenhouse gas emissions, our total greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 1.43 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, marking a 22.8% increase year-over-year. Again, the new services provided by Elektrenai Complex led to 103.6% increase in Scope 1 emissions. Scope 2 emissions decreased by 4.5% and Scope 3 emissions increased by 13.6%. Next, on safety. We recorded no fatal accidents with employee and contractor total recordable injury rate standing at 1.41 and 0.46, respectively. That concludes our strategic performance review. I will now pass it over to Jonas to cover the financial part.

Thank you, Darius. Let me start with the financial highlights of the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 3.7% year-over-year and reached EUR 188.5 million, driven by stronger results in Green Capacities and Networks. Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.3% and amounted to EUR 107.8 million, mainly due to higher interest expenses. Our investments amounted to EUR 146.5 million. Around half of the investments were made into Green Capacities segment, mainly into new solar and onshore wind farms. However, with several projects reaching COD or nearing completion, total investments decreased compared to the first 3 months of 2024. Return on capital employed decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 8.9%, mainly due to the lag between deployment of capital and investments and the subsequent realization of returns as well as the lower results of the Customers & Solutions segment. Our leverage metrics remained strong with FFO to net debt ratio at 28.8% and net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.98x. Finally, in line with our dividend policy, we paid a dividend of $0.663 per share for the second half of 2024. Now let's take a closer look at each of our KPIs, starting with adjusted EBITDA. Firstly, Green Capacities' EBITDA grew by 41.8% to EUR 109.3 million, driven by higher captured electricity prices due to flexibility of our assets, new assets launched and new services provided. Secondly, Networks' EBITDA grew by 8.6% and reached EUR 74.1 million, mainly due to higher RAB as a result of continued investments into our electricity network and higher WACC, which reflects higher interest rate environment. Thirdly, Reserve Capacities generated EUR 17.4 million of EBITDA, which is lower by EUR 2.6 million compared to the previous year. The decrease was driven by lower captured gross profit margin in relation to lower captured electricity prices and higher natural gas prices. Finally, on our Customers & Solutions segment, its EBITDA was lower by EUR 31.6 million and amounted to negative EUR 14.2 million, and the decrease was driven by natural gas supply results, mainly because of more favorable margins, which were secured in 2024. Next, let's deep dive into the EBITDA performance of each segment, starting with Green Capacities. It remains the largest contributor to the group's’ adjusted EBITDA, contributing for 58% of the total. The main drivers behind 41.8% increase year-over-year were: firstly, higher captured electricity prices, mainly due to flexibility of our assets. Secondly, we launched new assets, including Silesia II wind farm, Kelme I wind farm and Kelme II wind farm, which is expected to reach COD later this year. Moving on to the Networks segment. The main factors contributing to the growth in Networks' adjusted EBITDA were higher regulated asset base, which increased by 13.3% from EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.8 billion as a result of continued investment in the electricity network and an increase in the WACC set by the regulator, which increased from 5.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, reflecting the higher interest rate environment. Next, Reserve Capacities segment. Our performance remained strong across both Q1 of 2024 and 2025. However, the results fell by 13%, totaling EUR 17.4 million. The decline was driven by lower captured gross profit margin in relation to lower captured electricity prices and higher natural gas prices. And lastly, Customers & Solutions' adjusted EBITDA was lower by EUR 31.6 million year-over-year and amounted to negative EUR 14.2 million. The decrease was driven by 2 factors: Firstly, natural gas decrease, which was driven by natural gas supply results mainly because more favorable margins were secured in 2024; and secondly, by lower electricity supply results driven by prosumers under the current net metering scheme. As we now cover the key factors driving business segment performance, let's turn to the investments. Our investments amounted to EUR 146.5 million, 48.7% of investments were made in Green Capacities, while 44.7% in the Networks segment. Driven by several Green Capacities projects reaching COD or nearing completion, our investments reflected a 30.1% decrease year-over-year. Therefore, Green Capacities investments reached EUR 71.4 million, reflecting a 48.6% decrease, and it was partly offset by ongoing investments in solar, onshore wind and Kruonis pumped storage hydropower plant projects. In the Networks segment, we invested EUR 65.5 million, marking a 2.8% year-over-year increase as a result of higher investments into the expansion of electricity distribution network. And all in all, as you can see from our free cash flow metric, which was positive and amounted to EUR 16.7 million as EBITDA offset the investments made. Next, our leverage metrics. Our net debt decreased by 1.2% and stood at EUR 1.6 billion at the end of Q1 2025. Looking at our main credit rating metric, FFO to net debt, it marginally decreased to 28.8%, well above the 23% threshold of S&P credit ratings agency required for BBB+ credit rating. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA has also slightly decreased from 3.1x to 3.0x. Finally, our guidance for 2025. Following our Q1 performance, which was in line with our expectations, we reiterate our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of EUR 500 million to EUR 540 million and investment guidance of EUR 700 million to EUR 900 million. There have been no changes in the directional guidance for adjusted EBITDA by segment nor in the main drivers behind it. With that, I will hand over to Darius to conclude the presentation.

Thank you, Jonas. Before we turn to our next 4-year strategic plan, let me briefly recap the performance we delivered in Q1 2025. We entered 2025 with strong momentum reflected in the performance results and strategic plan execution. First, our first quarter adjusted EBITDA amounted to EUR 188.5 million, representing 3.7% year-over-year increase. Second, we continued strategy delivery, which is marked by Green Capacities portfolio growth by 0.5 gigawatts to 8.4 gigawatts. And with successful project execution among significant progress across our portfolio, our first Kelme wind farm, which is a part of the largest onshore wind project in the Baltics has reached COD. Third, despite our investment program, we maintained a robust balance sheet with the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio standing at 2.98x. And lastly, for 2025, we expect adjusted EBITDA of EUR 500 million to EUR 540 million and investments of EUR 700 million to EUR 900 million. Now let us move on to the presentation of our strategic plan for 2025, 2028 period. If it is the first time you have joined our earnings call, let me briefly introduce you with our group. We are renewables-focused integrated utilities with the purpose to create 100% green and secure energy ecosystem. We will deliver it by sticking to our promise-driven priorities: to be green, flexible, integrated and sustainable growth. Over the last 5 years, we have delivered a strong track record with the focus on the strategy execution and continuity. We target to reach 4 to 5 gigawatts of installed Green Capacities by 2030 and become net zero by 2040, 2050. We will achieve these targets by focusing on green generation and green flexibility technologies and utilizing the key advantages of our vertical integrated business model by benefiting from the largest customer portfolio, the largest energy storage facility and the largest network in the Baltics. With that, let us now go through the strategic plan for period of 2025 to 2028, which outlines the next steps in consistent strategy execution and highlights opportunities to contribute to Europe decarbonization and enhance energy security in our region. By utilizing our integrated business model, we are maximizing our full potential. This is our backbone for the strategy execution. It means that, first, we focus on delivering 4 to 5 gigawatts of installed green generation and green flexibility capacity by 2030. Second, we expand the resilient and efficient network that enables the electrification. Third, to enable the Green Capacities build-out, we utilize and further expand our customer portfolio, which is currently the largest in Baltics with 1.4 million customer base in our Customers & Solutions segment. And finally, Reserve Capacities is foreseen to be mainly operating as a system reserve with a strategic focus on contributing to the security of the energy system. Next, let me briefly outline the current European energy transition trends and the potential in the markets we are active in. First, let's talk about European trends. European electricity and hydrogen demand is set to grow, but currently, it looks like it will come later than expected. The EU is potentially at risk of being late in reaching the decarbonization targets. There is a gap in meeting 2030 targets and EU could be late in reaching its net zero by 2050. So we need to accelerate the green transition. Although nearly 20% of hydrogen projects across Europe are currently experiencing delays or even cancellations, hydrogen continues to be an essential component in EU strategy to decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors with around 99% of hydrogen still produced from fossil fuels. Power and heat production, manufacturing, transport and buildings remain among the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in EU as they emit over 70% of the total emissions. Additionally, new challenges are emerging due to the geopolitical factors and the priority of ensuring energy affordability and security. And finally, grids are seen as yet another key element to enable the [ EU ] energy transition. There is a growing demand for investments into TSO and DSO networks. The investments are needed to reinforce cross-border transmission, to increase DSO capacity for the rising electrification needs and to address aging DSO grids. Now let's look at the potential in the markets we are active in, and there are significant opportunities in the Baltics to contribute to Europe's decarbonization. The Baltics and Poland present significant opportunities for green energy expansion with up to 28 to 30 gigawatts of new capacity expected by 2030. Poland is transitioning away from coal generation. Estonia is phasing out its oil shale generation, Latvia is dependent on the seasonal variations of hydro output. Lithuania is closing the gap of structural electricity deficit. Regarding the potential in Lithuania in more detail, Lithuania power sector carbon intensity today is the lowest among the Baltics. Lithuania is set to become self-sufficient by 2030 and ready to pursue opportunities for green electricity exports as well as to cover additional demand that potentially could emerge driven by data centers or military production sectors. Zooming out, the Baltics are uniquely positioned to contribute to regional transformation with a potential to become substantial suppliers of both electricity and hydrogen to Central Europe as energy surplus in the Baltic states is projected around 2030, 2035. The Baltic countries are expected to generate a green electricity surplus with around 7x more green generation potential than local consumption. We see the potential to exploit the interconnection capacity with the Baltics with renewable electricity exports and trading. The Baltics are set to become one of the most interconnected regions in EU with around 4 gigawatts of new interconnection capacities expected by 2035, 2037 on top of 4 gigawatts currently existing ones. To summarize, there is a need to accelerate the European energy transition and the Baltic region is uniquely positioned with the significant opportunities to contribute to Europe's decarbonization efforts. With the forces behind the change and our business model wrapped up, let us now deep dive into strategic priorities of our business segments. Jonas, passing the word to you.

Thank you, Darius. I will now cover our Green Capacities business segment. As previously, we have 2 main targets, medium and long term. In the medium term, by 2028, we expect to double our installed Green Capacities to between 2.6 to 3 gigawatts compared to 1.4 gigawatts at the end of 2024. And in the long term, by 2030, we plan to double it again and to reach between 4 and 5 gigawatts. Now in terms of our progress towards Green Capacities targets, 2.4 gigawatts out of the 2.6 to 3 gigawatt medium-term target for 2028 is covered with operational and under construction projects. This includes 1.4 gigawatts of installed capacity and 1 gigawatt of projects already under construction across onshore wind, solar and pumped storage hydro technologies in Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. The remaining portion of 2028 target is well covered with our current pipeline. The remaining 0.2 to 0.6 gigawatts required to meet our 2028 target is covered by a pipeline of around 1 gigawatt, offering a buffer of around 2.5x the required capacity. For 2030 target, the remaining 1.4 to 2 gigawatts is covered by a pipeline of approximately 2.8 gigawatts, providing a buffer of around 1.6x. To deliver these targets, we focus on combination of green generation and green flexibility technology. In terms of green generation technologies, we focus on onshore and offshore wind. And in terms of green flexibility technologies, we focus on battery storage, hydro pumped storage and power-to-X technology. Worth mentioning that part of our complementary assets such as hydro, biomass and waste-to-energy plants provide both generation and flexibility elements. I will now briefly cover each of these, starting with offshore wind. Offshore wind is very important for our Green Capacities' expansion strategy. We aim to build at least 2 offshore wind farms in the Baltics, one project in Lithuania and at least one more in the Baltics. On the progress of reaching these targets, so we currently have 2 offshore wind farm development projects in our portfolio. The first one, Curonian Nord project in Lithuania with a capacity of 700 megawatts, has seabed and grid connection secured and is in a development phase. The second one, Estonian offshore wind project with a capacity between 1 to 1.5 gigawatts has seabed secured and is in early development phase. Next, onshore wind. We target to reach more than 700 megawatts of onshore wind installed capacity by 2028. Our total installed capacity currently stands at 283 megawatts and additional 437 megawatts is under construction. Therefore, we expect to see around 7 gigawatts of new onshore wind capacity additions in the Baltics and Poland by 2030. Next, one of our complementary technologies, solar. We use solar technology only where it adds value, either by creating a more stable generation profile or better utilizing the existing infrastructure. We target to reach more than 400 megawatts of installed solar capacity by 2028. And currently, our total installed solar capacity stands at around 22 megawatts and capacity under construction is 437 megawatts. In terms of other complementary technologies in our portfolio, hydro, biomass and waste-to-energy, we deploy the existing green baseload generation profile with additional flexibility, meaning that they are able to capture prices which are above the average market price. Total installed capacity of these technologies is 216 megawatts of electrical capacity and 350 megawatts of heat capacity with no further expansion plan. Now moving on from green generation to green flexibility technology. First of all, hydro pumped storage. The asset which we already have in our portfolio is Kruonis pumped storage hydro plant with 900 megawatts of green flexibility capacity. We are currently running its expansion project by building an additional fifth unit of 110 megawatts flexible capacity, which will be launched in 2026. After the expansion, this 1 gigawatt plant will be able to run at full load for around 10 hours and provide a massive 10 gigawatt hours of storage capacity. Next, remaining 2 focus technologies on the green flexibility side, batteries for the short-term flexibility and P2X for the long-term flexibility. We target to implement our first utility scale batteries by 2027 with expected final investment decisions to be taken this year. And on P2X side, we plan to launch a green hydrogen production and e-fuel conversion pilot project. Now I would like to highlight one of the key elements of our operating model. It is a power offtake capabilities. This is one of our key differentiators, positioning us strongly among our competitors. Our current power supply portfolio is around 4x larger than our generation portfolio. We generate around 1.8 terawatt hours and supply 6.7 terawatt hours. The gap of 4.9 terawatt hours between generation and supply portfolio translates into around 2.4 gigawatts of new green capacity, which may sell the electricity generated to our existing customer base. With this, I will pass the word to Darius to cover the remaining business segments.

Thank you, Jonas. Let me begin with the Networks segment. In the Networks segment, we own and operate the largest distribution grid in Baltics with over 131,000 kilometers of electricity and almost 10,000 kilometers of gas network lines, both covering the entire Lithuania. In this segment, we operate as natural monopoly following a market standard regulatory framework, which ensures a return of investment above 5%. Overall, we see the grid as one of the key elements of our energy transition, and therefore, our core focus is on electricity network and customers. First, we invest to ensure an efficient and resilient electricity distribution with additional focus on physical security of critical infrastructure and cybersecurity. Second, we expand electricity network capacity and maximize its utilization. This will further enable green electrification and facilitation of the energy market, including transport, industrial and heating electrification and energy efficiency. And the third priority is on enhancing end-to-end customer experience, including energy market participants. Next, Customers & Solutions business segment and its 3 priorities. First, we utilize and further expand the customer portfolio, which is currently the largest in Baltics to ensure the green capacity build-out through internal power purchase agreements and to increase the share of green electricity supply to the customers. As a result, our electricity supply portfolio is expected to reach from 9 to 11 terawatt hour by 2028. Second, we keep building a leading EV charging network in the Baltics, which will become one of the offtakers of green electricity in the future. We focus on developing key public EV charging network and expanding in the Baltics across public, commercial and home charging segments. And the last, we contribute to the transition from fossil fuels by providing cleaner alternatives for green transition, for example, biomethane, while ensuring the security of energy supply, grid flexibility and energy affordability during the transition. Now Reserve Capacities business segment. Its key role is contributing to the security of energy system, mainly by participating in the market for provision of balancing capacity services. In total, generation portfolio in this segment [ concludes ] 1.1 gigawatts, primarily providing ancillary services with a load factor of 6% and high availability of around 98%. On top of that, we will further utilize additional optionality to generate electricity in the market during low renewables generation, positive clean spark spread periods and participate in market tender and capacity auctions for provision of ancillary services to other countries. With that, again, I give the floor to Jonas to cover our financial targets.

Over the next 4 years, we plan to invest EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion. Around 59% of our investments or between EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 2.4 billion will be directed to Green Capacities. Out of that, around 41% will go to the assets, which we plan to launch throughout 2025, 2028 period to reach 2.6 to 3 gigawatts of installed capacity. Around 55% will go to assets which we expect to launch post 2028. Another significant part of our investments, around 36% or between EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 1.3 billion will be dedicated to our Networks segment. 55% of this amount will be allocated to electricity network expansion, while 41% to electricity network maintenance. By that, we will increase electricity network resilience and enable the electrification of other sectors, at the same time, increasing our regulated asset base by around 36% to more than EUR 2.1 billion by 2028. Sustainability-wise, more than 85% of our investments are expected to be aligned with the EU taxonomy over the next 4-year period. Next, our target returns, which all these investments are expected to generate. Firstly, in terms of IRR-WACC spread, we target at least 100 basis points in nonregulated activities and more than 0 basis points in regulated activities. Secondly, our adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach between EUR 600 million to EUR 680 million in 2028, which represents up to 7% annual growth rate over the strategic period, mainly driven by the Green Capacities and Networks. Finally, we target our adjusted return on capital employed to be at the level of 6.5% to 7.5% over 2025, 2028 period. Despite our sizable investment program, we continue our commitment towards financial discipline and therefore, a solid investment-grade credit rating of BBB or above over the strategic period. In addition to that, we also target to keep our net debt to adjusted EBITDA below 5x. Finally, in terms of shareholder returns, we will continue to grow our dividend by at least 3% every year, which represents an implied dividend yield of 6.4% to 7% over the 2025, 2028 period. With this, I pass the word back to Darius.

Finally, let me now move on to the most important asset, our people, who altogether contribute to the execution of our strategy. We are a purpose-driven organization of around 4,700 diverse individuals working together to create 100% green and secure energy ecosystem for current and future generations. Together, we innovate to shape the future energy sector and create new opportunities for our customers. We're actively pursuing innovations across our strategic pillars to unlock further values by harnessing ideas and knowledge through open innovation activities, which includes open funding, open infrastructure, open culture and open partnerships. This fosters the development of innovative solutions and establishment and spin-off of new strategic business activities. Next, sustainability. We continue to align our business goals with the fundamental ESG principles and strategic priorities on decarbonization, safety, employee experience, diversity and sustainable value creation. Our decarbonization path is aligned with our business ambitions. Our first priority is to reduce the carbon intensity of our Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by growing installed green generation and green flexibility capacities and by increasing share of own green electricity used for our own operations. Next, we are further providing our customers with alternatives for using green electricity and enabling their transition away from fossil fuels. This will lead to an increase in the supply of green electricity and biomethane across our home markets. Finally, we remain committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2040, 2050. Let me now sum up the key points of our strategic plan for 2025, 2028. With the purpose to create a 100% green and secure energy ecosystem, we will exploit our renewable-focused integrated business model and pursue the purpose-driven priority: green, flexible, integrated and sustainable. For that, we set a clear strategic goal. We target to reach 2.6 to 3 gigawatts of installed Green Capacities by the end of 2028 and 4 to 5 gigawatts by the end of 2030. By 2028, we expect to reduce our carbon intensity of Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions to 190 grams CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour and by 2040, 2050 to reach net zero emissions. To ensure this growth achievement, we will invest from EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion over the next 4-year period while maintaining BBB or higher credit ratings and expect it to translate into EUR 600 million to EUR 680 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2028 and 6.4% to 7.0% implied dividend yield over the period of 2025 to 2028. With that, thank you for patiently listening to us today.

We will now begin the Q&A session. Our first question, could you please indicate if power price volatility in Q1 significantly contributed to strong EBITDA growth in Green Capacities via increased profitability of hydro assets on top of increased generation in onshore wind farms?

So the short answer is yes. The flexibility of our assets indeed benefited in the volatile environment. And maybe it's worth mentioning that even in the low wind quarter historically, we have managed to achieve strong results. And also another addition to that is that flexibility is incorporated not only in our hydro assets, but also in our biomass and waste-to-energy CHP assets.

Next question. Could you please indicate what portion, if any, of next 4-year CapEx in Green Capacities is attributed to the offshore wind project, Curonian Nord and Estonian offshore wind project?

So we don't provide guidance by splitting CapEx into different projects. But to guide you a bit, all the investments necessary to proceed with these projects are included in the numbers. However, that being said, because FID for Curonian Nord is not earlier than 2027, which means that the majority of CapEx for these projects falls after the strategic period.

The following question. Could you please indicate what long-term power price assumption is implied in your 2028 estimated EBITDA from EUR 600 million to EUR 680 million?

It would be difficult to guide you on one precise number because it varies across the years and across the different markets in which we operate. But in general, we are using the average of power forecast providers. So it's in line with the market consensus.

One more question. First Latvian solar projects are almost finished. Why it is not still producing electricity? Are there problems from Latvian grid side? When is the first electricity is expected?

So we are indeed progressing well with Latvian solar projects. There are no issues on the Latvian grid side. And if you bear with us, you will see the first power quite soon.

Next question. Earlier, you announced that Vilnius CHP part of stocks would be sold. We have not heard any news after that. Is the selling process still actual? Would we soon see any news or maybe you have not found any acceptable buyers and the process is canceled?

No updates regarding this. We will announce the information regarding asset rotation program in accordance with legal requirements.

The following question. When should we see first battery projects? When the [ earliest ] COD off or could be expected?

So for battery projects, we are committed in our strategic plan to launch first assets by 2027, and that's our intention.

Next question. There were some fires associated both with Vilnius and Kaunas CHP assets. What is the impact of those fires? Would it affect the work of those plants?

The fire in the neighborhood area did not affect the assets or activities of Vilnius CHP. Vilnius CHP operations are running as usual with sufficient waste supplied to maintain full capacity. Last week, a fire broke out in Kaunas CHP waste bunker, where incoming waste is stored. The fire was promptly extinguished and the plant's operations were not halted. Temporary gas was used instead of waste at that time. Currently, the unit is operational at full capacity with a temporary limitation of accepting waste to the plant around 50% of capacity.

Here is another question. There was an announcement that you will sell Moray West project stocks. When approximately we could expect that sale?

Yes, so that is correct that Moray West is not the asset which we intend to hold for the long term. Currently, there are no updates regarding this, but I think it would be reasonable to expect the exit within the strategic plan period.

Next question. Second Silesia wind farm, have it already reached full power production?

The current status at Silesia II is that it's fully completed. From the construction point of view, it is -- all turbines are able to generate power. However, at this stage, we don't have yet the full grid availability, which means that we are generating at 80% plus of long-term expected volumes.

Following question. Could you [ analyze ] the net loss that prosumers generate totally for Ignitis?

In Q1, the loss from prosumers was around EUR 6 million.

One more question. What are the improvement areas or what steps do you have to take in order to improve Customers & Solutions division's profitability?

On improving the Customers & Solutions' profitability, the key elements are solving the prosumer model. So there is a regulatory update needed which we think will not yet happen this year. The second thing is we will -- we are still seeing impact of customers which have moved to lower priced tariffs from high fixed tariffs during the energy crisis. And because our hedges were made in that high price environment, we still see an effect from that. This should end this year to the most extent. The final thing, which I would mention is that on EV network, we are progressing quite well with the expansion, and with the pickup of EVs in the upcoming several years, we will see an upside from that part of business.

Following question. What new services are provided by the Green Capacities segment that are mentioned in the quarterly report? What is their share in the segment's revenues?

The new services, which are mentioned are mainly the ancillary services and especially mFRR, which appeared in our market post synchronization. In terms of revenue proportion, I don't have an answer right now. And it's important to note that when we manage our assets, we try to optimize between the different services. So whether it goes into Nord Pool or into balancing services, and it's not necessarily correct to look just at the share of revenues because it's an optimization exercise. Whichever the market gives us better return to that market, we dedicate our assets.

Here is another question. Regulator announced that partial extra profit from mFRR and aFFR would be returned to Lithuanian customers. Is that returning calculated from year ‘25 January 1? Is that returning already included in the announced Q1 results?

Yes, so both answers are yes. So we -- the regulatory mechanism is working from the beginning of this year. And our Q1 results fully reflect the regulation impact, and we have accounted a provision of EUR 50 million in relation to the amount that will be returned to the customers.

Next question. Q1 of this year, Customers & Solutions' adjusted EBITDA was significantly lower compared to the Q1 2024 results. Can we expect segment adjusted EBITDA improvement in 2025?

So just maybe to repeat some of the parts, but we don't expect big improvement in 2025 numbers because prosumer effect will still be there for at least this year. We will also see still a negative result from customer migration, which happened a few years ago. And on gas market, we have seen margin contraction because, again, high margins, which were -- which we were able to earn in the high price environment, they are no longer there. So on gas side as well, we don't expect a material improvement. So 2025 will be a challenging year for Customers & Solutions, and that is what we expected, and that is where we guided the investors with our annual results as well.

Following question. We are observing a trend of an increasing number of negative electricity market price hours in the Nordic and Baltic region. How can this trend impact Ignitis’ financial results? What are the measures that Ignitis takes to mitigate the potential negative effects?

We do see some level of negative price hours, which are essentially those hours with high solar production and during weekend mainly. And we will continue seeing that because especially on the prosumer side, those solar assets are not turned off during the cheap -- the negative hours. So we will see some of that impact going forward. But in terms of what it means for us, due to our integrated business model and flexibility of our assets, we are able to capture an upside from these hours because, as I mentioned, a number of our assets have flexibility incorporated in them, be it hydro assets or waste-to-energy or biomass assets, they all can benefit from it. And on top of it, when we progress with batteries, that will be another upside for us. So flexibility part of our business, as we highlighted multiple times, is a very important value driver in our business model.

Next question. Regarding Customers & Solutions natural gas supply business, could you please elaborate a bit more on the compressed margins? Also, could you please share the outlook for the rest of the year?

I think it's natural because after the energy crisis, everyone has sorted out their natural gas supply contracts, which wasn't the case during that time of the gas prices, the TTF has declined. So that brought us to the lower margin environment, which essentially brought us back to normal course of business this year, and we expect that normal course of business to continue on the gas side.

One more question. Free cash flow was positive, mainly because of lower investments in Q1. Should we expect this investment's decline in 2025?

In terms of investments, we have provided the investment guidance, which hasn't changed since our full year 2024 results presentation. That's what I can say at this point.

Next question. Offshore wind. Are you still planning to participate in the second offshore wind auction in Lithuania, bearing in mind changes in conditions? Are there any news about Curonian Nord offshore project?

We are assessing the tender conditions that are in the final stage in the Parliament at the moment. Should we decide to participate, we will inform the market accordingly. No news on Curonian Nord development is ongoing.

The following question. Can you elaborate on electricity prices development in the Baltics? What trends do you see? And if you can provide more details to the development of your hedged prices for 2025?

In terms of electricity market prices in the Baltics, we are seeing a trend. So if we look at Q1 2025 versus Q1 2024, we have seen more than 20% price increase in the Baltics. In Lithuania, the average market price reached almost EUR 110 per megawatt hour. So that's on the price development. We probably don't see prices staying at these elevated levels, and they will go down somewhat from these. But over the long term, we think power prices will remain supportive in the Baltic region. In terms of our hedge levels, so we have hedged around half of our production for this year at the prices of EUR 112, if I remember correctly.

The following question. In strategic plan, you expect return on capital employed between 6.5% to 7.5%. What return on equity should be expected for the same period?

You are right. We do expect return on capital employed between 6.5% and 7.5%. That being said, this return on capital employed includes the CapEx, which is not generating -- which is not yet generating EBITDA. So this return on capital employed of 6.5% to 7.5% is with the inclusion of construction in progress. If we would eliminate that, the number would be closer to 8%. In terms of return on equity, we are not providing guidance for this number. But to give you a sense for every single new investment, which we make on Green Capacities side, we expect double-digit equity returns in the current market environment.

Next question. What returns do you expect on the 0.5 gigawatts of battery pipeline?

Our general rule when we make final investment decisions is that the project needs to generate at least 100 basis points above our WACC. For batteries, because of it being on the riskier side of our investments, because it doesn't have secured revenue levels, the returns will be -- expected returns will be higher than for our other investments such as wind or solar power plant.

Following question. What developments do you expect in the natural gas supply business in the rest of 2025?

I have already commented on this. So no major changes from what we had in Q1 2025.

One more question. What impact from the new regulations do you expect in the Green Capacities business and in the Reserve Capacities business?

In terms of the impact, we don't expect any significant impact, especially comparing to our full year guidance, which we published in the beginning of this year with 2024 annual results because the thing which is shared with the regulator is the upside. So we are sharing the upside, which was unplanned and which we are actually earning on top of our bidding levels. So because the upside, which we are sharing was unplanned, that means there is -- we don't expect significant impact.

Next question. Perhaps you could discuss the profitability of the projects that you need to develop to reach 2028 and 2030 targets. Is the targeted absolute gigawatt level first priority or are you willing to adjust this number if there are projects profitability risks?

Again, in terms of target returns, we are targeting at least 100 basis points above the WACC. So that's minimum. For more risky projects, we target more. And as we communicated before, we are not building gigawatts for the sake of building gigawatts. The required return level is mandatory for us to proceed with final investment decision. So we will only proceed with a new project if they meet target return criteria.

The following question. Should we expect that as you increase your own electricity production, the performance of Customers & Solutions division will also improve as you will rely less on external purchases and can control your margins better?

To some extent, yes, but it won't be a major impact because we need to acknowledge that the margins are controlled now as well. And we need to acknowledge that the results are not great in Customers & Solutions due to 2 one-off events. One is the prosumer impact, which we expect to be solved probably not this year, but in the upcoming years. So that's one effect, the negative prosumers from net metering. And the second impact, which is, again, temporary is the customer move from higher fixed tariffs to lower fixed tariffs a few years back after the energy crisis, and we are still feeling the impact of that because we still have some high hedges in place. So those -- when those 2 impacts are sold, we will see better results in our C&S business segment.

Following question. Could you please provide a bit more details on the new mFRR service and the profit sharing with consumers? What is the planned regulated profit for 2025? How should we approach modeling this particular service?

In terms of planned or regulated profit for 2025, we are -- we don't have a number for that yet because it is a new market, and we are finding out how it develops as we go. What we do know is that for the first quarter, that extra profit was EUR 50 million, and we accounted that as a provision to be returned to the customers.

Next question. What are the estimated capture rates for new wind projects? What are the LCOE estimates, if you can share?

In terms of the capture rate, I can only say that, again, it depends on the market in which we operate. In the Baltics, we are seeing capture rate in the neighborhood of 20%. And in Poland, due to CfD optimization, we are managing actually to -- not to suffer from capture rate at all. And in some months, we even earn a premium. So it depends on market by market. And the same goes for LCOE. But we don't see different LCOEs than any other market forecasters and we look at each project individually because some of them have higher CapEx, some of them lower, some have better volumes, some lower. So it depends on project by project.

The following question. Do you see any deflation trend on wind turbines, solar panels, renewable parts? Or what do you see?

So far, since last quarter, we haven't seen any material trends. So the levels which we see on the CapEx side are relatively stable.

This concludes our earnings call today. For follow-up questions, please contact our Investor Relations team. Thank you for standing by, and stay safe.