AB Volvo (publ) ($VOLVB)

Good morning, and welcome to the Volvo Group First Quarter Press Conference. Today, we'll listen to the presentation from Martin and Mats about the first quarter results, and then we will follow up with a Q&A session later on in this session. So with that short introduction, I hand over to Martin.

Thank you for that, Johan. And also from my side, good morning to this quarter 1, 2026 press conference. Great to have you here. First and foremost, the group and all colleagues and business partners delivered a solid result in the quarter with an adjusted operating income of SEK 12.2 billion and a margin of 11% and continue to demonstrate strong earnings resilience despite that market volumes moderated compared to last year. And despite many moving parameters, as you're all aware of, such as geopolitical turmoil and tariffs. Performance was good across all business areas with a high customer confidence in our products and services, reflected in good order intake and low cancellations throughout the quarter. We also launched several new business offerings as well as portfolio moves to further improve our competitive set and enable continued profitable growth. To mention a few examples in the intro here from the first quarter, we have further reinforced the regional haul and conventional business offerings in North America for Volvo, Mack. Super excited about that. We are continuing to roll out these new offerings. And as you did see also here in the intro movie, Volvo has launched our next generation of battery electric offerings, including also the new FH Aero Electric long range with up to 700-kilometer range, which is, of course, a significant and benchmark step. As regards to our company portfolio, we continue to optimize our structure and capital allocation with a number of important moves in the quarter. First, the intention of Toyota to step into cellcentric, being an equal shareholder together with us and Daimler Truck, paving the way then for the hydrogen journey. The intention and execution, I should say, we are waiting for a merger clearance there on the Flexis divestment, our 45% share to Renault Group, still then having a considerable, so to speak, lineup of LCV, including the Flexis vehicles. So that will further clarify that part of the business for the Renault Trucks. The [ Swecon ] integration, strengthening the retail sales presence for VCE started during the quarter and also the announcement of discontinuing the Rokbak brand when it comes to our hauler business within Volvo Construction Equipment that has been subscale and low profitability not at least with our decision in '22 to leave Russia, amongst others. Here and now, and despite uncertainties order intake also developed positively, as you have seen with, for example, an increase year-over-year of 14% for Group Trucks. As one example, and when it comes to the market forecast for the full year, we are [ for ] trucks down then slightly revising upward for Europe and Latin America while reiterating the forecast for North America on the back of stronger order momentum. I guess it would be certain questions about, I mean how that is playing out, obviously, but we will come back to that more in detail why we are reiterating that and see gradual now coming back in the North American market. And operationally, I think that is also important. We are utilizing our flexibility toolbox, both for upwards and downward correction to maintain balance between demand and supply and to keep inventory levels on the right level, so to speak and that has been well done during these more stormy waters, and we will continue to do so. Focus is also on effective cost control, generally speaking, but also further optimizations of our structures across the group that we have done during the quarter, primarily in the truck segments. Commercial discipline continues, of course, to be very important. We have a very strong total offer, and we should utilize that. And what is very, very positive is, of course, also the service business growing with 6% organically, showing that our customers around the world continue to utilize their equipment. But also that we have an increased share of wallet, and that is, of course, driving loyalty and customer centricity, but for the group, of course, also resilience. So while the recent geopolitical tensions and the Middle East conflict have so far not caused any major disruptions in our operations, we are, of course, keeping a watchful eyes whether and when they might affect primarily if they will, the general economy more broadly and thereby our demand. But with our flexible business model with an increased service business together with strong market positions, and disciplined cost control, we are well positioned to navigate potential short-term swings in demand. And you have heard me saying that before, in times like this, we focus on what we can affect and what we can impact and staying close to our customers and business partners to continue to drive resilience and growth. Moving forward, there will be an increased structural need in the world of efficient and effective transport solutions, infrastructure and energy solutions, and the group is well positioned moving forward. If we go into the figures then. The first quarter, net sales amounted to SEK 111 billion with an organic sales growth of 2%. And we have, and you will hear that from Mats and myself, we have introduced a term organic sales growth to illustrate the underlying sales development pace and thereby neutralizing also the M&A effects, for example, if you take VCE then the Swecon and SDLG effects in the quarter and, of course, also FX. More granular information about this is disclosed as part of the key ratios section in the quarterly report. And we continue to focus on earnings resilience, as I've said, adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 12.2 billion, with the margin expanding to 11%. For trucks, our European business performance compensated the under absorption cost for the -- from the U.S. truck manufacturing operations that was standing still approximately 25% to 30% of the time -- available time in the quarter. That was a conscious -- tough, but a conscious decision. And eventually, as we see it, the right decision, to have these stop weeks as we now have available production capacity to meet the increased demand we have seen recently. As for May, we are in balance in North America. Operating cash flow had a normal seasonal effect and amounted to SEK 400 million. Net financial position end of quarter 1, SEK 56.8 billion. Return on capital employed, 24.5% and earnings per share, SEK 4.09 per share. So we can then conclude another strong and resilient quarter here. Group news, as I said, quite a lot of things have happened or a very busy quarter, I have to say. First and foremost, and as you can see here, the Toyota Motor Corporation aiming to join the Volvo Group and Daimler Truck as equal shareholder in the fuel cell joint venture cellcentric. The combination of the parties' complementary experience and know-how will support and accelerate the joint objective to develop, produce and most importantly, then commercialize fuel cell systems for heavy-duty vehicles but also for other heavy-duty applications, such as energy solutions, for example. And this is a very, very good industrial move and industrial fit as these 3 significant OEMs joined forces to drive decarbonization. Super happy, obviously, to have Toyota on board with a long-lasting story when it comes to this journey of hydrogen and the hydrogen economy. This will further strengthen an already well-functioning joint venture actually. Also, as I alluded to, Volvo Group, Renault Group and CMA-CGM has been an agreement now on a strategic change for the current joint venture Flexis that contains the next-generation electric light commercial vehicles. And the move is that Renault will buy, Volvo's 45% ownership and CMA-CGM is 10% in Flexis. But Volvo Group through then Renault Trucks, that is the counterpart will remain a partner and investor in the vehicle project and will commercialize and distribute Flexis developed products from 2027 adding to the lineup that we already have together with Renault Group, also a very successful setup by the way. AGM of AB Volvo, Annual General Meeting of AB Volvo was held at World of Volvo in Göteborg, very proud of that. I can say, I mean, that is a manifest also of both the history and the future for Volvo. And as always, of course, it is a special moment to meet with our shareholders. The AGM decided also along with the Board's different proposals and amongst those, of course, also to -- not of course, but to shift SEK 26.4 billion to the shareholders or SEK 13 per share. On volume side, the truck deliveries decreased by 3% to 47,500 vehicles with lower volumes than in North America and somewhat also in South America, but partly then compensated in Europe. And Volvo Construction Equipment, Volvo-branded volume, that is the relevant these days now, I mean, since we have completed the divestment of SDLG. It did grow with 12% in the quarter driven primarily by the European market. Electrification, first and foremost, with different uncertainties related to the electrification still in our key markets. Demand continues to be slow. Orders of electric vehicles decreased 22% adjusted for SDLG, mainly on the back of a broadening offering from competition. That is natural. I mean, we have been rather alone with some players, but we see more and more players coming in. And I think that is a good sign. But also the general uncertainties in the market. The reality is that the base of calculating market share is very, very low. So you will see rather big swings here moving forward as well. But deliveries of electric vehicles and machines did grow with 15% adjusted for SDLG. And this growth was mainly supported in this quarter by a strong growth of light commercial vehicles, electric business. When it comes to the total vehicle and equipment sales that was flat in quarter 1. Trucks organic sales decreased 3% on the minus 3 truck volumes showing generally then continuous price discipline in the market. Construction Equipment grew 16%, driven by Volvo branded machines in Europe. Organic sales growth for buses, 14% driven by Prevost, mainly in North America. And since we are doing complete buses for Prevost, of course, the sales value per vehicle is rather high here and Volvo Penta grew sales by 14% with solid growth both in Europe and North America. One example, as I alluded to last time is also the growth in data center segments continues showing -- a continuous high activity levels. I think it's 14%, 15% now of the portfolio and growing for Penta. So that's very interesting. Underlying service sales growth also amounted to impressive, I should say, 6% in the quarter with positive service developments across business areas, while it was flat for VFS, and that was, of course, related to volumes in the other business areas. They were keeping penetration, as you will see. VCE and trucks did grow with 7% and Penta 10% organically. And the 12-month rolling service sales amounted to SEK 123 billion and represented over 26% of the group's revenues, and it was actually 28% for the quarter. And again, coming back to the importance of that, that we have diligently worked with, I mean, the service penetration and the rolling fleet and getting higher penetration per unit here, loyalty and closeness of course, but also resilience. On the truck side, a busy quarter as well, came with a lot of product news and launches. Here, you see the Mack Granite, it's the iconic Mack Granite. That is now fully updated still with this typical Mack look. And we reveal that the ConExpo together with a brand-new Mack Keystone that is also for the demanding heavy haulage application amongst others. And of course, a very, very important launch for Mack since these 2 models are also part of the 2 core segments of Mack moving forward and also as we speak. Also in North America, Volvo Trucks and Mack Trucks started production of their new regional haul trucks, the Volvo VNR and Mack Anthem. So as I said, we are more and more now completing the rollout and are getting ready for having a well-greased system in North America and up to a level that we have seen in Europe before. Volvo has begun also on-road testing. Maybe some of you did see that in the introduction movie here also heavy trucks powered by hydrogen combustion engines, and we are continuing this 3-pronged approach, obviously, with battery electric, combustion engines driven on renewables and also fuel cells and the commercial launch is planned before or around 2030. On the electric side, as I said, Volvo revealed a number of new executions now in April. For the versatile and vocational, you can say also FH, FM and FMX Electric models are now available with up to 470-kilometer range on 1 charge, which means that the absolute, I should say, I mean, the absolute, absolute majority of missions in those segments will be handled with overnight charging. And that is, of course, a change in the game for our customers. You remember it was the time when you could live a complete day with one charge also on the phone, that they changed the way you're thinking about that. Volvo has also, as you did see, showcased a new long-range FH Aero Electric with a range up to 700 kilometers, and that is a true benchmark, obviously. Same there, then you can do missions even really the most advanced long haulage operations and also coming with mega charging as you did see. Market forecast. For North America, we repeat our market outlook for 2026 at 265,000 in retail sales. Order levels have been elevated, as you have seen in recent months, while retail sales, that is how we measure the market or retail deliveries, pace is lower because that is related to the order intake at the end of '25, but is expected now to regain momentum in the second half of the year. And the EPA '27 prebuy is included in that view. So we don't expect any material prebuy, which I think is a good thing for the market dynamic generally speaking. European registration pace continues to gradually increase. We have lifted our market forecast with 5,000 units to 310,000 units for '26 and similar, even if we have a falling trend still in Brazil, market contracted through '25, as you know, and we see that continuing, but still we are lifting the forecast from 75,000 to 80,000 heavy duty trucks in '26, so plus 5,000. Indian market is driven also by a healthy replacement demand, infrastructure investments and a general increased freight demand. And here, we lift with 20,000 units for medium- and heavy-duty trucks up to 400,000 vehicles. And on a side note, I have to say that I'm very proud of also our joint venture in India, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles that actually sold for the first time because they have their fiscal year ending at the end of March, as companies normally have been in Asia and sold over 100,000 vehicles for the full year, which ended now done in March 31. And what is interesting is, obviously, this is a 15% growth and historically, we have been thinking about Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles, a slightly medium duty, but the reality is that it's more than 25,000 heavy-duty trucks, but we are also calling heavy-duty trucks. So that is starting to give real leverage and also carry back opportunities for us when it comes to technology. You know that we are already doing the 5- and 8-liter engines in India with very, very good results and the industrial system is gearing up here. We announced -- so I think that is a great achievement by the team and a great asset moving forward. And for China, we reiterate also our 2026 total market forecast for of 760,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks for the China market. Book-to-bill, positive, obviously, as you have seen, 135% for medium and heavy duty in the quarter and 99% rolling -- 12-month rolling. North America, we had a book-to-bill of 192% on the back -- on one side, on the back of strong order intake, mainly from fleets, but also retailers coming in, but also that we still had planned stop weeks. So you have that, so to speak, effects on the 2 sides between 25% and 30% of the total availability. So that was quite extensive. But we said, keep the balance but keep ready. We had still also some stop days during April. But from May, we will use the installed capacity. So we feel that the right decision to utilize that flexibility tool for quarter 1 here, even if that came with under-absorption cost, and you will hear Mats talking a little bit about that later on here. Europe, 150%; South America, 134%, and the Industrial Systems may need to be tuned upwards given the gradual increased customer demand. We have been in balance here already as we speak. And now when we see, so to speak, support from order intake, we will have the flexibility tools necessary here. And you can say primarily Asia, Africa, Oceania and good balance. Market share side. In Europe then continued to deliver strong market share for the quarter with the Volvo at 19.3%, the Renault Trucks at 9.4%, giving a total share of almost 29%. On the battery electric side, as we said, as more OEMs are now delivering Volvo Renault Trucks delivered 23% combined market share for the quarter. And we will still see these swings now moving forward as the market still is rather low. Now we are coming in with new executions and that will come back, et cetera. I think it will be this type of stepwise approach. But more importantly, we proceed with our efforts, we proceed with our 3-pronged approach, as I said, pronged approach with combustion technology, electric and hydrogen to drive decarbonization. And in North America, we had a combined share of 17.2%. So starting to go in that right direction. Super important that Mack Trucks self-help is giving results. We are now at 8.7%, and we see a good momentum here that we are not hampered by our own industrial system and other deficits. And one example is the cab-over engines. I mean, the waste collection units where Mack has always had a leading position when we had, so to speak, the problems here, 1, 1.5 years ago, we're down to 30% market share in that specific segment, now we're back to plus 50%. And so that shows also how important it is that we have the capacity in the different type of segments here. And also, Volvo Trucks are back on the right track, absolutely not on the level where they should be, but back on the right track and regains their position. And of course, it will be further support when over the road is expected to become better here. Brazil is strong, 23.7% and also a good start, I should say, 22.5% combined for Volvo and Mack in Australia. Construction Equipment. Closing of the acquisition of Swecon in this quarter. So Monday has passed. We always talk about Friday in Monday. But Monday has passed a very good sentiment when it comes to the integration. We are super happy to welcome all new retail and service colleagues into the group in these core markets. It's Germany. Sweden, it's Baltics. And all our great colleagues here will further strengthen the Volvo CE service and market position in core markets. And that is, of course, one of the key factors also of continued success and such an important part of the TCO for our customers. So a great opportunity to further strengthen customer centricity, competitive set through total offer in resilience. By the way, one of the areas that we will further discuss at the CMD. It is also with regret that the decision has been made, as I alluded to in the introduction to later in the year, discontinued the subscale and loss-making Rokbak articulated hauler business. We have tried all together to be frank. But given also the fragmented footprint here, we have decided that the Scottish Motherwell site will be focused into a center of excellence for large rigid mining business carrying the Volvo brand. And the onetime costs related is under the adjusted section and you have seen that. When it comes to the market forecast, it can be rather swift, we are not changing anything in relation to the last report, the full year report of '25. So plus 5% Europe and China, flat for the other regions. Book-to-bill, I should say, also a positive sign that sends 110% in the quarter driven primarily by North America, but also somewhat by Europe. North American demand is broad-based, as stated last report, similar pattern, data center energy sector onshoring of manufacturing as well as the possibility of -- for customers to write off quicker. And the European demand is still encouraging but with also here increased uncertainty among customers due to the conflicts in the Middle East. Buses, important launch actually. You know that Mexico is super important for us when it comes to buses. The new 9800 was launched for the coach market in Mexico, marking another milestone in the Mexican passenger transport industry. The Volvo 9800 has the new aerodynamics and the comprehensive design, fuel consumption improvement of 4%. And coach is a very important tool for passenger transport in it. So 4% with the miles produced is very, very important. Book-to-bill 130%. It was mainly driven by somewhat lower delivery volumes. However, with higher sales value per bus, as I said, because it was a lot of Prevost into those figures. But we have a solid field rate for the full year, Volvo Buses. And Volvo Penta, great to see on the marine side to start with recognized for its leadership in marine innovation -- sustainable marine innovation with its hybrid electric IPS propulsion that was named the Technical Development of the Year at the Motor Boat awards in Düsseldorf maybe you have visited the Düsseldorf Boat Show. I always find it interesting, by the way, that it is in Düsseldorf. It's not a lot of lakes or seas out there, but it's a great show anyhow and a very important one. And also strong market interest. What you can see on the slide here, that is the Volvo Penta G17 the 17-liter gasified power generation offering for mission-critical applications such as data centers. And that I said also that is growing, obviously, not at least then for standby and backup power and good order board there. Book-to-bill reached 95%, and 92% 12-month rolling. But generally speaking, a good activity level, what we have seen basically during quarter 1 is if you take the 4 main segments, marine commercial, marine leisure and industrial speed, all stable levels when it comes to order activities and deliveries. It is really in the power generation, Europe, Middle East slowing down temporarily, and that is related to the conflict because you have an instant effect of that. But obviously, that depends on the length of the conflict here. Yes, I can also mention, sorry for that. No, I think we're ready with that. And VFS finally continue to grow the portfolio on a currency-adjusted basis through solid new retail financing penetration, as I said, sustained at 30% and portfolio performance continued to be good, although delinquencies and write-offs remained at the high levels that we have seen during previous quarters, but it's still well within the bandwidth, depending on where we are in the cycle. So no signs of worries in that regard. And we also continue to focus on enhancing the portfolio when it comes to utilizing, so to speak, the VFS capabilities insurance offering is now on the rise, for example. So that was the business update. So I will leave the word to you, Mats, for the financials. So the one in only Mats Backman.

Thank you for that introduction. So looking into the first quarter financials, then and starting off with the group net sales. So organic net sales increased by 2% comparing to last year. Vehicle sales were flat year-over-year, while service sales increased by 6% with contribution from all business areas. Looking down at the organic net sales development in the different regions. European volumes increased, which led to increased sales of 15%, driven mainly by trucks and Construction Equipment. In North America, sales decreased by 16%, driven mainly by trucks, while sales were higher for both buses and Penta. In South America, net sales were flat comparing to last year and net sales decreased by 2% in Asia. Overall, FX effect was negative with about SEK 9 billion due to a general appreciation of the Swedish krona. And the main driver was the U.S. dollar depreciating about 15% versus the SEK. The adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 12.2 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 11%. In Q1, earnings were again supported by the positive development of our service business, R&D net expenses and a positive product and market mix. The U.S. tariff net cost was on the expected level of about SEK 1 billion. Severe weather conditions in the beginning of the quarter led to higher freight costs. In the first quarter, we continued to see higher manufacturing costs on the back of under absorption from the stop weeks in North America. The R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.4 billion with a year-over-year effect of SEK 800 million. The year-over-year increase in selling cost is mainly due to selling costs from acquired business. And FX had a negative impact of SEK 1.1 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the SEK compared to our main currencies. In the first quarter, cash flow amounted to SEK 400 million. The limited cash flow contribution in the quarter was mainly driven by the seasonal buildup of working capital. Return on capital employed trend declined 24.5% on a rolling 12-month basis. Net cash in industrial operations amounted to [ SEK 57 billion ], but this is, however, before the dividend distribution of SEK 26 billion in April. Net sales for group trucks decreased by 1%, and this was driven by lower volumes, but offset by positive development of the service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 7.6 billion with an operating margin of 10.1%. The adjusted operating income and margin was flat currency-adjusted comparing to last year. Lower volumes in North and South America, higher manufacturing, freight and tariff costs were offset by continued good development of the service business and a positive market mix and currency had a negative impact of SEK 800 million in the quarter. Construction Equipment organic net sales increased by 14% versus last year. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 2.5 billion with an operating margin of 13.6%. Product mix with more Volvo-branded products and more heavy machines together with positive development of our service business were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, tariff cost and accounting effects from the Swecon acquisition had a negative impact on the result. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 150 million in the quarter. And then moving over to buses. Organic net sales increased by 11%, driven by both higher service sales and a positive vehicle mix. Bus delivered another strong quarter with adjusted operating income of SEK 492 million with 8.8% in margin. The result was supported by good price realization in combination with high efficiency in the production. In the first quarter, U.S. tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact on the financial performance. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 47 million in the quarter. Penta organic net sales increased by 13% which was driven by more industrial engines and the service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 1 billion with an operating margin of 19.8%. This was again on the back of strong volume development for both engines and services. But despite unfavorable market product mix and the U.S. tariff costs. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 145 million in the quarter. And then looking at Financial Services. The credit portfolio adjusted for currency increased slightly to SEK 264 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 9.8%. Portfolio performance continue to be good with delinquencies and write-offs under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 938 million, impacted by increased credit provisions, but supported by the portfolio growth. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 80 million comparing to the same quarter last year. And then finally, looking at the forward-looking guidance and starting with the FX. Based on the currency rate end of March, we expect the neutral currency impact year-over-year in the second quarter. The net impact from tariffs in the second quarter is estimated to be around SEK 1.2 billion. We reiterate our expectations on R&D net capitalization at approximately SEK 3 billion for the full year 2026. With a year-over-year negative effect of about SEK 1 billion. And finally, we also reiterate the guidance from last quarter for a tax rate of 24% for the full year 2026. So with that, I leave it for Martin to summarize.

Thank you, Mats. I will be short on my summary, so we'll have time for questions. But I think what you should have with you a strong resilient quarter given external and moving parameters. Strong order intake coming back, obviously, that we are reiterating the main aspects of the market conditions and a growing service business. So with that, Johan, I think we are ready to start the Q&A.

Thank you, Martin. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have people on the line, and we have people in the room. We start with Agnieszka.

Agnieszka from Nordea. Maybe starting with your outlook for North America truck market. We're a bit surprised that you didn't actually raise the outlook given the fact that order intake was rather strong in Q1. So maybe just can you comment on what's your expectation or explain what was driving the order intake in Q1? Were you surprised by the strength? What's the quality in the order book? Is there any risk for cancellations? And how is also both the production planning and kind of delivery planning from that orders?

Thank you, Agnieszka. I mean -- and that is, of course, an important one I alluded to it . I suspected that there should be a number of questions around that. But if you look at, I mean, the build rate and the delivery rate, basically retail sales because, I mean, even if it goes a little bit quicker since it's retail sales that is constituting the total market than in Europe, where you have the registrations, it is still the lagging effect, obviously. And since we had still soft order intake in quarter 3, 4, -- and we were idling 25%, 30% in first quarter still keeping up our market share still even improving them. And also some but fewer stop days in April, and we are in balance in May. And then when you -- I mean, do the backward calculation and take out the medium duty of our registration is approximately a run rate in quarter 1 of 50,000, 50,000-plus. Then you have a total market of [ 200,000 ]. So to come up to the 265,000 means that now from now on, you will have a gradual recover. And what we have seen is also obviously, that the order coverage is, first and foremost, on the right level now in quarter 2, but it's also a number of fleets that would like to secure their slots. And that is, of course, a balance to your point, so you keep the quality and the pricing discipline given the uncertainty. And here, we have also, as we see it found the right balance. But for us, it holds when it comes to the figures of -- and if we should come to this, I think it's another positive effect is that you don't -- will have a negative overhang into '27 because it will be the underlying demand balance that is actually driving it rather than some prebuys. And I think that is a very positive thing for the market and the market dynamics. So we feel it's rather the logic actually. Take a follow-on. I think it's in the interest of everyone here. So please.

Maybe just a follow-up actually to Mats. Can you quantify the under-absorption costs you had in Q1? And how should we think about it in Q2 and going forward?

I mean, as we said, without giving any kind of exact numbers then, but you can see -- if you're looking at the kind of the bridge effect and the numbering on trucks, then it's a top 3 then on that. So it is a rather big effect and it was bigger than in the fourth quarter. And then going sequentially into the second quarter, like Martin said, I mean we are basically balanced with the current capacity then in May, meaning that this under absorption is that kind of declining, then we're getting into a normal situation, so to speak, in North America starting May.

And I mean, when you look at the bridge, if you take the truck bridge, I mean, we try to have them in a reasonable hierarchy also when it comes to the positives and negatives as you are well aware of. So it's also some guidance.

Good. We'll take one more in the room. Hampus from Handelsbanken.

Thank you. Sorry for staying in U.S., but on your 265,000 outlook, you're increasing run rate in May. Is that another step then after the summer? Or is it -- and is it in 3 steps? That's my first question. And second question is also in the U.S. relating to the orders, you're up 78%. Market is up 90%. We hear Freightliner international are kind of more guess on pricing. What's -- are you getting your share? Or are you holding back by being more conservative on pricing? Or how should we think about that?

Yes. I mean -- and I think when it comes to the order share, I think that is, of course, an important information, but still to take a little bit with a grain of salt also given the fact that it depends on different companies, and I cannot -- I don't know the other companies strategy on that. But how ready do you ought to make order placements quite far out in time. And when we look at, so to speak, the reasonable step-up that we're doing now, now we did idle to Mats' point, 25%, 30%. So that capacity is what we have ready now and then obviously, as we go along and feel that, so to speak, the underlying demand is supporting this level and beyond, we will, of course, have the opportunity to further go up. What we can say at this point in time is that with the 265,000, it will be a gradual recovery and thereby a gradual ramp-up because we don't want to come too long -- too far out in the order guidance, so to speak. And that is related to your second part in order to also have the right balance when it comes to the commercial discipline also because -- or the commercial opportunity, I should say, also in a stronger market.

We move to the telephone line and to Jefferies, Michael Aspinall.

Yes. Michael here. I'll switch over to Europe, and I was a little bit surprised on that kind of upgrade to the Europe market guidance. So maybe you can just give us some context as to kind of what regions or end markets you see driving that? And what you kind of incorporate from a macro perspective, I see some of the European countries downgraded their GDP forecast recently?

Yes. Thank you, Michael, for that question. And first and foremost, I mean, there's no, I think, draw mine in the uptick. I mean we are talking about 5,000 units, but 310,000, to your point, is still a strong market. But we're also coming into a replacement cycle when we had also very strong shipments for I mean, with the exception of COVID, obviously about for a number of years. So it's also part of that dynamic. Rather broad-based, I have to say, then you can say that it's a little bit lower the order intake in relation to last years, quarter 1, but that was also not a very strong quarter. So comp figures are very tough to have here. So generally speaking, it's broad-based rather solid and it's supported by what we have seen now. But I mean, 310,000, good market but not extraordinarily strong, so to speak, in relation to what we have in replacement, et cetera.

Good. We'll take one more question on the telephone line, and we're leaving the word to Klas Bergelind from Citi.

The first on the tariff guide of SEK 1.2 billion into the second quarter mark. I'm trying to understand how the new Section 232 rules from April 6 will now impact your Construction Equipment and buses. I guess construction and buses could see a sequential increase in the tariff cost while trucks to go down or supported by the MSRP import credit. Is that the way to think about it? More color here, the split between the segments on the SEK 1.2 billion would be very useful.

It was a little bit difficult to hear them. But how much time do we have with -- starting with tariffs? But maybe to give kind of an overall view on where we are and the outcome for the first quarter, but also the guidance. So we had the SEK 1 billion for the first quarter, and then we are guiding for SEK 1.2 billion in the second quarter. And if I heard you correctly, then the question is the kind of the distribution between the different business areas. And the reason behind the increase of the net impact in the second quarter is mostly related to Construction Equipment actually because with the changes in Section 232 then from, I think it was April 6, that will also include excavators and wheel loaders, meaning that we will basically have the full product range when it comes to CE included then in Section 232 and that will increase the cost up. So it's on CE. So we say that we had about 50% in the first quarter was related to CE out of the tariff in the second quarter is probably somewhat more than 50%, and so that is increasing. Then we have trucks and I'm coming back to trucks a little bit in relation to the 2 other kind of moving parts with IEEPA and the Section 232 credits on the truck side. But we also have buses with an impact of about SEK 100 million on a quarterly basis, that is related to the Prevost bus system from Canada going into U.S., also Section 232 question. But what you can ask yourself, and that's probably the question then. So will we see any kind of positive effects then going forward when it comes especially to the truck side and driven by the Section 232. We have nothing included in the first quarter and not in the second quarter when it comes to credits on the Section 232, the 3.75. We don't have anything included on any claims when it comes to the changes on the IEEPA and that will probably be positive then, but we will have -- we will claim money also, but we will also have customers claiming money from us then, but net, probably positive. So it is probably an upside, but we need to kind of clear guidance in order to not the exact number. And secondly, also a kind of a clear a guidance on when we can get the credits done, but nothing of those kind of positive items are included in the first quarter.

Good. We'll take one more on the telephone. We'll leave the word to Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley.

Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley. I'd like to ask about North America. It seems like we're in an unusual situation. PMIs are up, spot rates have risen orders have increased freight volumes are not meaningfully improving. So what are the customers saying? Is the reduced capacity enough to warrant replacing the fleet? Or are they placing these orders with the view that freight demand improves in the second half of the year? And perhaps also wanting to secure build slots ahead of EPA '27. And then we've heard some reports that customers are increasingly pushing for delivery later in the year. Have you noticed this also? And can I confirm that there are no penalties in case of cancellation?

No. But I think generally speaking, you did a good analysis yourself there about the different dynamics that are coming into play. We have had more or less over-the-road freight recession for quite many quarters, obviously. So there is a replacement need coming in. And then also, to your point about, I mean, also number of underlying effects on that, but both spot rates and contracted rates getting better. And then there is probably also a certain element, not necessarily only on EPA '27 that is not significant as we see it, but more of also getting availability of the slots, both from a dealer perspective as well as a customer perspective because dealers also what we see in the inventory levels are on the right level. We don't have any excess inventories. We didn't need to have that, obviously, since we are building in North America as well. And that's the reason again why from the order figures, it can look like that we are a little bit on the lower side of share in relation to the total. But I think at the end of the day I remember Putte Kock said, that we own the midfield, but we lose with 3-0. So I mean, at the end of the day, I think order share is one thing. But at the end of the day is registrations that count. And then Shaqeal, to your point, it's important to have the right balance in the order board because if you are taking it too far out in time, that is our view, then you need to introduce a number of rather complicated mechanism of the cancellation fees or what have you in order to not having a hedging into the order board.

Good. We take a question from Mattias from DNB.

Mattias Holmberg, DNB Carnegie. I would like to go back to Europe, and I think that your raised market guidance is pretty clear. But I would be interested to hear about the ramping. I understand that you might have increased capacity gradually through the year. Are you sort of at the level where you need to be? I know that this is a quite small revision to the guidance, but still. And then also on that topic, we heard from one of your peers that they had sort of canceled the planned capacity increase in Europe due to customer demand hesitancy on the back of what was going on in Iran. I take it that this is not something you're seeing given the raised guidance, but it would be interesting to hear any comments on this as all.

Thank you, Mattias. If anything, as we said, I mean, not a material change in that sense. But I think more importantly, that is supporting a rather good level and that is what we see. As I said also in the introduction here in the presentation, if anything, we are planning for some adjustment upwards. But that is well within our flexibility tools because with the current levels that we have both in [indiscernible] for Volvo, but also Borg, we can also contain this type of flexibility moving forward. We did see also Mats you said that, well, also in -- I mean, Europe did a very strong quarter 1. Good capacity utilization, good leverage and that was an important thing of offsetting, so to speak, the rather big under absorption that we did have in North America. So I feel that in Europe, we are in a -- we start from a good balance, and we can support, so to speak, this upside absolutely during the course of the year. I don't know if you would like to add something?

No, nothing dramatic. And we have a really good flexibility both upwards and downwards in Europe. So...

That is a really strong machine that is going on for us in Europe, actually.

We move to Bernstein and Harry Martin.

The first question I had, I'm interested in your conversations that you've had with customers about the Iran crisis and the rising fuel cost. Does the fact that you haven't seen any cancellations mean that the customers are just confident the crisis won't be a long-term one or that however long it last, that they will be able to pass on higher diesel costs into their customers in the freight market?

Thank you, Harry. I think it is I mean I was in U.K. at the end of last week and talked with quite many of our bigger haulers that are, of course, mainly then British-base, but also doing quite a lot of hauling into Europe as well and in the U.K. I think it's a mix actually of the 2. First and foremost, I mean, how it will play out when it comes to the duration, to your point, eventually, I mean, I think the bigger topic will be how that will affect, so to speak, the general economy and the general demand. And that was a conversation that we had there, and I have quite many customers. And to your other points, even if that is coming with a certain time lag, especially when it comes to the more fuel consumption-based applications like long and regional haul, you have fuel clauses, obviously. But of course, there is a time lag of that as well, but that is not abnormal that it's fluctuated. Now it has been very dramatic in a short period of time, obviously. But I should argue that it's more the general economy and the sentiment there that will eventually affect the need of transport and thereby demand.

Good. Karl Bokvist from ABG.

The first one, if I remember correctly, when you look at Europe, the Volvo Aero of orders or something was a material part of the order intake for the full year last year. And if we then think about North America, either if you're willing to comment the first quarter or how you think about this year, the new products as a share of your order intake and what that effect could be then?

Yes. I mean, of course, we are -- as we have said, we have had a staggered approach, and we are not doing clean cuts, obviously. But for the sleeper segment, we will, more or less, as from now have the, so to speak, the full effect that it will be the all new VNL. It's -- we are phasing out, so to speak, the legacy on the sleeper. As we said also, we are starting now with the VNR that is the second big segment for Volvo Trucks in particular, the regional haul now, and that will be a mix during the course -- during the year on that side. For Mack, it is still a big proportion of that is legacy because what we presented now with the Mack Granite and Mack Keyston, the vocational segment that is very much of the core pieces of max volume that will come later this year. So the absolute majority will be legacy. But more importantly, for Mack is really that we have got the machine to be more smooth. We have not had the same type of industrial capability, as I have alluded to in North America, and in particular, for Mack that we've had in other regions. And there we have seen considerable improvement. So we feel more confident now when demand is coming back also on the Mack side. And then again, I have to say that even if we don't talk so much about it, but the CE part of the cab-over engine for waste collection and other type of construction activity, et cetera, is on very high volumes in relation to what it has been. So it's a mix.

Good. Thank you for that. We turn to UBS and Hemal.

Hemal Bhundia from UBS. I appreciate the color regarding the transport operator. Would it be accurate to say that when transport operators start to pass on these higher fuel cost to end customers is when you possibly saw an upward inflection in order momentum? Or has it been relatively stable throughout?

Yes it's probably the same question.

No, but I think, again, as we said, I mean this is, I mean, the more important effect. So if I understood the question correctly, Hemal, I mean, this is the more important question. I mean, what will happen with, so to speak, price pressure if that continues for -- I mean the transport being one, it could be chemistry or chemicals and different things and thereby bringing inflation and thereby us, in turn, affecting the general economy. I think that is much the bigger question than, so to speak, the immediate effect of fuel increases for the customers because they can pass it on in the fuel clauses. That is our review. Then, of course, I mean, it depends on what segment you are operating, how the contracts are looking, but more material volumes of our -- of our type of customers base have fuel clauses for sure. So again, it's coming back to the general economy more.

Good. We move to Goldman Sachs and Daniela Costa.

So I wanted to ask regarding the 900 head count reduction you did in the U.S. and in Europe. This is despite, I guess, the better outlook and the increasing production. So I imagine it's more on the fixed cost side. Should we think about that as it was kind of a one-off in 1Q? Or is it part of like a more broader revisit of your fixed cost base? How should we think about savings and impact sort of in margin from here? Maybe if you could address that.

No. I mean this is kind of a continuous ongoing process when it comes to kind of efficiency and savings. So I mean, more of a kind of a continuous improvement. But this time, we saw that we have had a couple of changes when it comes to our way of working and also the organizational changes that made it kind of possible to do a little bit of a bigger exercise this quarter. And like you said, it's affecting about 900 employees, and we had -- if you're looking at the one-off then about SEK 800 million on that one. But this will kind of continue going forward, but not to the extent that you saw here with restructuring costs and then it's something we're doing every day in terms of continuous improvement, though.

And if I may add there, I mean, just to give a little bit of flavor to it. I think also we announced a couple of, I mean, it was around Christmas that we are a little bit changing our way of working in our industrial and technology backbone with what we now call Trucks Technology and industrials and that is more regional based. And that has a structural impact of this. But also the technology development, we are working in different ways. And we see that also in our commercial business areas, both in North America and Europe. So this is a structural, so to speak, improvement in order to further make sure that we have the competitive set to be clear and also to increase speed. I mean the structure that we have had has really served us well, but we have also been rather stubborn in having that for 10 years. We are not super pro reorganizations all the time because that is causing a lot of confusion. Now it was the right time. More flow-oriented when it comes to our industrial backbone, regionalized agility and speed in order to make sure that we are fit for the future.

Yes. And you can summarize it as white collar kind of productivity efficiency, that's what's behind it.

Right. Maybe we take one more final question. And we turn to JPMorgan and Akshat.

Akshat from JPMorgan. A couple of questions, please. The first one, coming back to the conflict. Can you just remind us on your main sensitivities to energy costs or material costs on the P&L? And what's the time lag with which this should impact the different business segments, please? That's the first question. And the second question is on the truck margin. As we think about 2026, outside of fixed cost under absorption and U.S. long-haul sales, what are the other key drivers we should look at in terms of improvement in that truck margin through the year, please?

I can start maybe on the margin or on the truck margin then. So if you're looking at -- if we take the kind of the first quarter as a starting point then sequentially, so what's kind of changed in that. And in terms of the positive ones and what we can see is a kind of -- and this is a year-over-year effect as well. And so we see a declining kind of currency effect given that the development we have seen on currencies towards the later part of the quarter. So that's one item. Important, I mean, the North American production system that we talked about that we're starting to get in balance in May is kind of also positive from a sequential point of view than -- on the negative side, I mean, we don't know where it will end up if we're looking at kind of the Middle East and what's going on. But what's already now clear is that we will see increases when it comes to freight costs for an instance. And I mean that's something that we see fairly early then. We have not seen it so far, but it will probably come down -- and then it's kind of unknown the kind of general impact on the overall business cycle then from Middle East, but also a couple of the highlights then. And as we are taking up the guidance when it comes to the total market for Europe, we feel pretty kind of confident on Europe and our capabilities in Europe. So those are the kind of big ticket items.

And as you know, I mean, I fully agree. But I would also like to reiterate the strong development in services. And I mean it was 7% underlying in the quarter here. And when we look at, so to speak, the contract penetration, I mean, we can continue to focus on that and I mean, the portfolio growth that we have had. And then you should not only think about under absorption in North America, I think also, again, coming back to the better capabilities for Mack Trucks in particular, should not forget that Mack has been hovering around 6%, 6.5% market share. Mack is not a 6.5% market share company. It's an iconic brand with fantastic products, but we have not have the end-to-end capability. This is a year where I think we can take further steps in that journey as well. So it's as always, segment by segment. Latin America has been depressed. And we have guided for further deterioration. We have been holding up volumes well there anyhow in market share. Now we're guiding a little bit upwards. So again, average is the mother of nothing. So we need to continue to be very granular in our strategy execution in order to be successful. But I think it's a strength with a rather hefty under absorption that we had in quarter 1 to deliver 10.1% on the trucks.

And good that you stressed service. I mean one data point, 28% of the total in terms of the top line service for the quarter, it's a very, very strong number.

Good. On that note, we thank you all for coming and for tuning into the webcast. And with that, we thank you, and see you next time.

Thank you, everyone.