ABG Sundal Collier Holding ASA (ABG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

A warm welcome to ABG Sundal Collier's Q1 results presentation. Before we kick off the presentation, I would like to mention that we will, as usually have a Q&A session after the presentation. And should you want to raise a question, please use the Q&A function in Teams, and we will answer all questions in turn. This morning, I'm also joined by Geir Olsen, our CFO, as always. So let's start with some initial reflections. I think it's fair to say that our markets have continued to be challenging in the first quarter with basically no IPOs in Q1, save for a micro main -- non-main list IPO done in Q1. There were no other IPOs made in the Nordic equity capital markets during Q1. And overall volumes were down heavily in terms of primary activity. But debt capital markets and M&A activity was more healthy, which combined with a continued stable performance from our Brokerage and Research operations contributed to our relatively strong performance in soft markets. We've also started to see some early signs of a broader risk appetite coming back in markets. And even though we don't expect a seismic shift in capital markets activity, we think it bodes well for improved activity later in the year. Our responsibility towards shareholders, employees and all stakeholders also requires us to never lose our eyes on our own profitability, and we'll talk about that later on, what we're doing more specifically in terms of things we can control. So with that, let's flip to next slide and look to -- look in the numbers in more detail. And looking at -- on the left-hand side of the chart at our revenue development over the last couple of years, it's not obvious we are operating in a rather cyclical industry with 2022, 2023 and now after Q1 LTM revenues basically stuck around NOK 1.7 billion. Obviously, volatility is higher on a quarterly basis with lumpiness in our revenues from investment banking contributing to that volatility. That said, and in light of soft markets, as previously mentioned, I think it's fair to say our Q1 performance is strong with revenues at NOK 403 million, which is slightly down from the same quarter last year. As you can see in the middle of the chart, margins continued to be negatively affected by various things such as continued weakening of NOK as well as new business initiatives and obviously slightly lower revenues. We have, on the right-hand side of the chart, earnings per share that is down slightly, but less so than you might expect from looking at the revenue decline from NOK 0.12 to NOK 0.11 in the quarter. So with that, let's flip to the next slide and look at the macro and the market backdrop. The Q4 rally in stock markets from end October, early November continued into Q1, even though the momentum in lower inflation and thus interest rates going lower faded somewhat towards the end of the quarter and early in Q2. A slight disappointment in recent U.S. inflation data has caused some uncertainty in the markets. And the key question short term is when the likely slightly delayed first move from Fed in terms of lower interest rates actually will take place as well as how the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will pan out, obviously. Having said that, mid-term, we are cautiously optimistic and believe we will see stronger development in equity markets throughout the year again. So let's look at the next slide and how -- more specifically how our core markets, how they have developed during the quarter and starting off with the capital markets and the equity markets activity in terms of volumes raised. It's obvious the activity has been muted to say the least, lack of IPOs with, as previously mentioned earlier, one conducted in Q1 in the Nordics, is clearly contributing to a sluggish primary markets and overall primary volumes down by 65% year-on-year. Debt capital markets are doing better and save for a spike in, as you can see in volumes, Q1 2023 last year. I would categorize that market as more stable than the headline of minus 31% indicates. That market is more driven by liquidity, i.e., if investors are overweight or underweight cash at the moment with companies doing okay, paying interest, et cetera, combined with fund inflows, this market has been quicker to recover than equity capital markets. Looking at the right hand side of the slide and on M&A. It's obvious that this market segment is more stable as usual, more or less flat Q1 this year over Q1 last year and on LTM basis, very flattish. That said, we think that activity will increase, even though visibility in terms of timing is hard to guesstimate given that there are less structural processes out there, but we think activity will increase. So let's flip to the next slide and look at our performance in these markets and start off with corporate finance. Obviously, we have been impacted by the soft markets in the Nordics with revenues down to NOK 122 million from NOK 182 million last year. That said, as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we have been able to close a pretty wide range of different transactions during the quarter, both in ECM and DCM and across geographies as well as sectors, meaning that we are well positioned to participate in stronger markets once they reappear. Moving over to the next slide and looking at our M&A business. It's clear we have performed well even though this segment by nature is rather lumpy, but it's always pleasing to see it's in -- lumpiness in the right direction, so to speak, with a sharp increase in revenues, as you can see, quarter -- year-on-year. And we have been able to conduct quite a few large transactions with broader participation also from more geographies this quarter around. So let's continue to the next slide, please, and have a look at our Brokerage and Research operation that has continued to deliver, what I would say, a very stable and solid performance with revenues only slightly down to NOK 153 million versus NOK 166 million Q1 last year. And we should bear in mind that, that was a rather tough comparison given that we had quite a lot of volatility at the end of the quarter last year spurred by some problems caused by regional banks in the U.S. and also the UBS' rescue takeover of Credit Suisse that short term had a positive effect on trading activity. We seem to -- it appears to us that looking at overall trends in the market, we have gained share in the falling market. Not least, looking at the performance from our Norwegian equity sales desk. And as previously mentioned, we see signs of improving risk appetite especially at the end of the quarter. So with that, I thought I'd leave the word over to Geir, who will talk a bit about our cost development and head count.

Thank you, Jonas. The headline is that our costs are down by 2% from NOK 338 million last year to NOK 331 million this year. That is a result in spite of say, Jonas mentioned, the Norwegian krona continued to weaken. It's now about NOK 7 million fixed cost increase caused by the FX. That is obviously something we cannot control. What we can control is headcount and to some extent, the non-compensation costs. So we have had a continued focus on trimming and slimming the organization. We see that we are now down by 7 people compared to the same period last year. That in spite of us continuing to build new businesses in private banking and alternative investments. And also a function of this is that our underlying fixed cost base on the current operational business is starting to come down as we have taken these measures and some other measures as well. So underlying costs down is the main agenda here.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Geir. We are always focused on keeping costs under control and we will not sit down, lay back and put our feet on the table and say we are done. We are continuously working with trimming our operations, obviously. Let's, with that, flip to the next slide. And if I may, let me summarize some key conclusions. We did well in spite of the sluggish markets on the capital markets side, on the back of strong performance in our M&A business. And we have built -- continue to build, especially towards [indiscernible] quarter a solid pipeline for future quarters to be executed upon. Our Brokerage and Research operations continues to deliver stable performance and is as such an important revenue contributor to our top line. As mentioned, we see signs that underlying ECM activity such as investor risk appetite and also interest from owners and companies to approach capital markets starting to recover from low levels, but still. Debt capital markets were in better shape and especially towards the end of the quarter, stronger with several completed deals and also a solid increase in the near-term pipeline. As Geir mentioned, we have taken and continue to take cost measures to protect -- to ensure we continue to be at a healthy profitable level. And finally, the establishment of our new business areas is proceeding well, and we are looking forward to launch of what we aim to be the best Swedish private bank later on this year. So I think that was the key takeaways I wanted to highlight before we open up the floor for any questions.

We have received one question. In the last 2 years, first quarter, you have commented on the corporate finance M&A pipeline. Could you please comment on this aspect today as well?

We have -- okay. If I understand the question right, we should provide more color on the pipeline. We -- our pipeline is worth nothing if the pipeline is kind of filled with projects that are difficult to execute upon given market conditions. So a headline number in pipeline might look good, but it all boils down to if it's executable or not. From that perspective, we and yours truly is more -- definitely, we are more comfortable that it is executable. It's more adapted to current market conditions. With more M&A, more DCM, we're not relying short term on the IPO market to recover.

No more questions from the audience so far.

Okay. Crystal clear seems like. We are obviously available for follow-ons. Do not hesitate to contact Anna should you have any follow-up questions. Until next time or any follow-up questions, thanks for tuning in, and have a great day.