Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC (TAQA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the TAQA's Full Year 2024 Results Call. This is Asjad Yahya, the Head of Investor Relations. I'm joined by our CFO, Steve Ridlington. Please note that this session is being recorded, and by participating in this meeting, you consent to the recording. This presentation will follow the usual script. Steve and I will walk you through the operating highlights and the financial performance of this period. We will then open the floor for a Q&A session. I'll now pass over to Steve, who will guide you through the key highlights of 2024.

Thank you, Asjad, and good morning, good afternoon and good evening to everybody. I hope you're all well, and thank you for being with us today. Turning to Slide 5. 2024 proved to be another solid year of financial performance for TAQA. Transmission and Distribution and the consolidation of TAQA Water Solutions served as the main drivers of revenue and EBITDA growth. This increase was partially offset by lower contribution from the Oil and Gas segment, which was impacted by lower gas prices and a decline in production. Overall revenues grew 7% year-on-year, while EBITDA increased by a similar 6% on a clean basis. However, taking into account the one-off gain of AED 10.8 billion in 2023, which was recorded upon recognition of our stake in ADNOC Gas, reported EBITDA declined 31%. Net income was more muted 1% year-on-year, excluding the impact of one-offs, with the bottom line impacted by higher depreciation and amortization expense in particular. On a reported basis, net income was down 58% year-on-year after factoring in the one-off items in 2023. In 2024, we deployed AED 9.2 billion in CapEx, a 64% increase over the previous year. This was led by higher spending in Transmission and Distribution and Generation. We also made significantly higher investments of AED 8 billion in Masdar as it closed a number of key M&A transactions during the year. These factors, combined with the first installment we paid for our acquisition of TAQA Water Solutions, led to a drop in free cash flow compared to the previous year. The Board of Directors has proposed a Q4 dividend of 2.1 fils per share, including a 0.7 fils per share variable dividend. This brings the full year dividend to 4.2 fils per share. On the ESG front, we continue to be recognized by the wider market for our sustainability-related efforts. Most notably, an MSCI upgrade of our rating to A from BBB in 2024. Turning to the next slide, the highlights for the year. I will take you through key business developments in 2024, which are expected to significantly help us move towards our long-term goals. We launched a new brand identity for our UAE network companies. This is expected to drive awareness and understanding of the scale and breadth of TAQA's business, supporting our move towards the next phase of growth ambitions. At the same time, we merged ADDC and AADC under the unified brand TAQA Distribution. TRANSCO is now TAQA Transmission while ADES has been renamed TAQA Energy Services. We also completed the SWS acquisition last year, which now operating as TAQA Water Solutions. On the generation side, in the UAE, Taweelah RO achieved full commercial operations in the first quarter. We also made significant headway into our key international target markets of Saudi Arabia. Notably, as part of a consortium with JERA and Al Bawani, we signed PPAs of 2 new CCGT plants in the Kingdom with a combined capacity of 3.6 gigawatts. TAQA is the largest stakeholder with a 49% share in both the project and O&M companies for both plants. Moving to Masdar, the company had a very active year, completing several greenfield and M&A transactions. With regard to the latter, notable acquisitions included a 50% stake in Terra-Gen, expanding Masdar's footprint in the U.S. In Europe, the company completed 3 key acquisitions across Spain, Portugal and Greece in the form of Saeta Yield, Endesa subsidiary EPGE and TERNA ENERGY. On the financing front, Fitch upgraded our rating to AA, aligning with the sovereign rating. We also completed a very successful $1.75 billion dual tranche bond issuance, including our second green bond. We've also achieved financial close for the Juranah Water Reservoir [indiscernible] projects in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. With regard to sustainability, as a reflection of our commitment to continuing improved reporting transparency, we commenced Scope 3 disclosure. Last but not least, in Oil and Gas, we are transitioning our U.K. operations towards safe decommissioning in the North Sea with the cessation of production achieved at 4 platforms in 2024. We also completed the sale of our share in the Atrush oilfield in Iraq during the year. Overall, 2024 was a strong year setting us up firmly on the path to achieving our 2030 goals. Turning to the next slide. We'll take a look at the financial performance for 2024. Our revenue grew 7%. As I mentioned earlier, T&D and TAQA Water Solutions were the main drivers of this increase. In terms of our individual businesses, T&D revenues increased 11% year-on-year on the back of higher pass-through items and recovery of corporate income tax. Generation revenues were down 2% year-on-year, mainly due to lower pass-through revenues in Morocco. TAQA Water Solutions started contributing to our financials from the first of January 2024 and accounted for 4% of total revenues for the year. Lastly, the Oil and Gas business was impacted by a 49% year-on-year decline in realized gas prices and a 6% reduction in production on the back of a natural decline in production and decommissioning activity. Moving to EBITDA. Clean EBITDA increased 6% year-on-year, while reported EBITDA saw a significant decline after taking into account the impact of one-off items in 2023. Similar to the case of the top line, Transmission and Distribution and TAQA Water Solutions proved to be the main drivers of the growth of the company's EBITDA. In terms of the business lines, T&D EBITDA grew 6% year-on-year, benefiting from continued positive impact of RC2 and higher inflation. Generation EBITDA was 1% lower year-on-year as OpEx remained largely unchanged in contrast to a reduction in revenues. TAQA Water Solutions added AED 1.6 billion of EBITDA, accounting 7% of the total. Meanwhile, lower commodity prices and a decline in production remained the main drivers of a decline in profitability for the Oil and Gas business. Turning to Slide 8. In terms of the P&L items below the EBITDA line, an increased depreciation and amortization expense had a notable impact on the bottom line. This increase resulted mainly from the consolidation of TAQA Water Solutions. Net interest expense also increased 7% year-on-year in 2024 on the back of 2 things. First, higher interest expense due to new issuances at the corporate and subsidiary levels; and second, consolidation of TAQA Water Solutions. As I mentioned earlier, on a clean basis, net income was up 1% year-on-year. However, taking into account the impact of one-off items in 2023, namely an AED 10 billion gain on recognition of TAQA's 5% stake in ADNOC Gas offset in part by a AED 1.2 billion deferred tax charge associated with the introduction of UAE corporate income tax, reported net income declined 58%. Turning to the next slide. Our balance sheet remains the cornerstone of our financial strength and the foundation for achieving our growth ambitions. Total debt increased by 4% year-on-year to AED 64 billion compared to year-end 2023, mainly on the back of a significant increase in CapEx and M&A spending across TAQA and Masdar. This impacted both our net leverage with net debt to EBITDA increasing slightly to 2.6x by end 2024 and available liquidity. That being said, we remain at very comfortable levels on both metrics. Almost all of our debt is characterized by fixed rate debt at an attractive level of 4.8%.The increase in average interest rate from 4.6% last year is mainly attributable to repayment of lower cost debt, maturing bonds and consolidation of TAQA Water Solutions debt. Board of Directors has proposed a fixed dividend of 1.4 fils per share for Q4 2024, in line with the '23 to '25 dividend policy. Additionally, a variable dividend of 0.7 fils per share has also been proposed by the Board, bringing the full year 2024 dividend of 4.2 fils per share. This translates into a 6% year-on-year growth over the dividend for 2023. I'll now pass back to Asjad who will lead us through an overview of performance of the individual businesses.

Thank you, Steve. Starting with Transmission and Distribution. The business continued to deliver strong operational performance, which is reflected in the network availability of 98.7% in 2024. CapEx spending also picked up significantly during the year on the back of timing and phasing of project execution throughout the sector. Our RAB remained stable at AED 76.9 billion. In terms of financial performance, as Steve mentioned earlier, the Transmission and Distribution revenues increased 11% year-over-year, driven by the combination of an increase in pass-through revenues, particularly BST and tax recovery under the regulatory regime. EBITDA, on the other hand, benefited from continued positive impact of RC2, including regulated returns on new capital investments and inflation. Moving to generation. From an operational standpoint, commercial availability improved 30 bps to 98.2%, primarily due to higher availability in the UAE plants. CapEx jumped to AED 2.3 billion as construction progressed on the Mirfa 2 and Shuweihat 4 reverse osmosis desalination plants. From a financial perspective, generation revenues were down 2% year-over-year, mainly due to the lower pass-through fuel revenues from Morocco. This was partially offset by higher revenues in the UAE, driven by increased availability, inflation indexation and corporate income tax recovery. EBITDA was lower 1% year-over-year, primarily due to stable OpEx compared to 2023. Moving to our latest business addition, TAQA Water Solutions, which joined our portfolio at the start of last year, it accounted for a very healthy 4.5% of group revenues and 7.4% of group EBITDA in 2024. EBITDA margin for the business stood at 64% in 2024. Moreover, asset availability for TAQA Water Solutions stood at 95.3%, reflecting strong performance for TAQA managed assets during the year. Moving to our last business, Oil and Gas. Oil and gas business continued to witness a decline in production, mainly due to natural decline in production and decommissioning activity. Our CapEx for the business decreased 15% year-over-year, reflecting the life cycle stage of TAQA's U.K. platforms as more assets enter decommissioning, resulting in lower capital spending. The financial result of our Oil and Gas continued to be impacted by a combination of lower commodity prices and a decrease in production. While realized oil price increase is 1% year-over-year, this was more than offset by a 49% year-over-year decline in realized gas price. This resulted in a 28% decline in revenues and a 24% decrease in EBITDA. Moving to the fourth quarter of the year. Taking a look at the results, revenues increased 9%. This growth was largely driven by the consolidation of TAQA Water Solutions and our Transmission and Distribution business. EBITDA, on the other hand, was down 4% year-over-year, driven lower by a contribution from Generation and the absence of dividend income from ADNOC Gas in Q4 '24. Note that we received the first half dividend from ADNOC Gas in Q4 last year, while it was distributed in Q3 this year. The absence of dividend income in Q4 had a more significant impact on net income, which declined 47% year-over-year. The fourth quarter also witnessed negative free cash flow on the back of significant capital expenditure, an AED 8 billion investment in Masdar to fund its acquisitions. I'll now hand over back to Steve to provide an update on how we are progressing towards our 2030 targets and to wrap up the presentation.

Thank you, Asjad. This slide tracks performance against our 2030 targets. As you may be aware, we announced our original growth targets in 2021 and revised them to higher levels in 2023 following the acquisition of Masdar. We want to take this opportunity to provide an update on the progress towards these ambitious goals. In terms of gross generation capacity, TAQA has more than doubled its capacity compared to 2020, ending 2024 with 56 gigawatts versus 24 gigawatts in 2020. Given the pace of growth of both TAQA and Masdar, we remain confident about achieving the 150 gigawatt target for 2030. The share of renewables within our gross capacity has also jumped significantly to 61% by the end of 2024, compared to only 5% in 2020. The 2030 target remains a 65% share of renewables in the total. Our net generation capacity has also been tracking well, reaching 22 gigawatts by 2024. We remain confident of achieving our targeted 50 gigawatts of net capacity by 2030, keeping in view the growth opportunities available to task TAQA and Masdar. In water generation, we ended 2024 with 1,250 million imperial gallons per day of gross capacity, largely in line with our 2030 target. Going forward, the primary change in this segment will be a shift towards a greater reverse osmosis with a more environmentally friendly method of desalinating water increasing to 41% share last year to 67% by 2030. The 2030 target encompasses a total spend of AED 75 billion between 2021 and 2030. AED 40 billion of this is focused on Transmission and Distribution, while remaining AED 35 billion is allocated to generation. Over the 2021 to 2024 period, we have invested AED 27 billion, which is roughly equally split between Transmission and Distribution and Generation. Our spending on Transmission and Distribution in particular, has picked up pace in recent years, while Masdar has driven the bulk of the spending with Generation to date. Note that for Transmission and Distribution, the AED 40 billion target is focused on expenditure that will directly contribute to a regulated asset base, while the Generation target reflects equity investment, whether it's in greenfield projects or acquisitions. Overall, we are comfortable with the pace at which the business has been progressing. We remain confident in achieving our overall 2030 targets. Finally, to wrap up on this slide. Looking at 2024 in summary, our generation portfolio is significantly developed, both at TAQA and at Masdar, and we continue to see attractive expansion opportunities. ESG remains embedded in how we conduct our business, and we received the rating improvement by MSCI to a single A as a recognition of this fact. Capital markets continue to remain readily accessible to us as reflected by the highly successful intraday execution of the $1.75 billion dual tranche issue last year. CapEx and investments have ramped up significantly as we pick up the pace of delivery on the growth we have committed to. Last but not least, we remain on track to achieve the ambitious 2030 targets that were laid out 2 years ago. Thank you.

Thank you, Steve. I will now open up the floor to questions. If you have any questions, please raise your hand and we'll open up the mic for you. Luke, please introduce yourself and ask your question.

Luke from Barclays. Just a quick question from me on the generation segment. So it looks like EBITDA was a bit lower in Q4 to pick up in OpEx, looking both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. So I was just wondering if there's any color you could share behind what's driving that? And also, will you expect profitability to look like this year for Generation.

Just so I know the question you're asking about the comparison of Q4 versus Q4. And on the OpEx side, you're saying that it looks -- the comparison you're asking for?

It looked high for Generation. So I was just wondering...

So there's some noncash items in there. In particular, there was an exercise done in terms of reorganization of the business as part of this rebranding as well. We mentioned that before. And it's a phasing of that expense that is noncash item that comes into Q4.

Okay. Understood. So you don't expect more of those noncash items in 2025. Is that correct?

We haven't really provided explicit guidance, so I would need to take a look on what we can share, and I'll come back to you on that. I'll let you know. [Operator Instructions] Susan, could you please just introduce yourself and ask your question?

Certainly, Susan Wisialko with Global Infrastructure Finance. Could you please just remind us the strategic plan for 2030, I know that's 2 years old. Could you talk a little bit about how that process evolves because over the decades, your strategic plan has shifted significantly over the past like 2.5 decades, I'm just thinking about the likelihood of it shifting again in the future.

Yes. Susan. Well, I think the shift that we announced in '23 on the strategic plan was really around the acquisition of Masdar. And if you look at the details of the shift. The major change to the plan was to incorporate what Masdar is setting out to do, which is to achieve 100 gigawatts gross by 2030. That aside, there was very little change to the overall strategic plan. And I think that provides you with the answer to your question about whether it will change in the future. Unless we have a significant change in the shape of TAQA, which I can't see at this point in time, I think you can see these targets as being enduring and to be delivered by 2030.

Again, if anyone has any question, please feel free to raise your hand, and we'll open the mic to you. Okay. It looks like no more questions. So I really appreciate you joining the call. Looking forward to having you on the next call and meeting you in between whether a conference, road show or at our offices. Thank you very much.