AcadeMedia AB (publ) (V8T.F) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the AcadeMedia Q2 Report '25/'26. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers, CEO, Marcus Stromberg ; and CFO, Petter Sylvan. Please go ahead.

So good morning, everybody, and welcome to this presentation of AcadeMedia Q2 results. And I will take the presentation together with Petter Sylvan, and I will start with a few remarks. And the second quarter, we think it's a very stable, solid quarter and in line with our strategy. The Q2 quarter is usually a quarter where nothing so much happens, but we think that this quarter has been really, really good. And if we look at the sales, it has been affected by FX effects because of the changes in currency, but the growth is around 5.5% if you adjust it for FX effect. And the EBIT is developing stable and good in all our segments, but the real driver behind this is the International Group and the Adult Education. And if you look at Adult Education, we also have a very good result when it comes to the -- we have strengthened our position when it comes to higher vocational education, and we increased the market share. And just this vocational education is very important for us. We think that is a positive step, and we keep and improve our market share. And we have also continued to make acquisition. We have a very solid and stable balance sheet. So we made an acquisition of a group in Germany. And we also announced this morning that we make an acquisition in Finland with a bolt-on acquisition of a group of English-speaking preschools in Finland, and we think that is very positive. And we have had a very tough time in the recent years when it comes to the increase of voucher and decrease of cost because of inflation and post effects of the inflation. When we look at 2026, we think it's very positive that now the school voucher is up 3.4% and that is a little bit higher than the salary increase. And if we look at the lease contracts, it's more than double up. So that is also -- finally, it's a stable year when we are looking at 2026. And then if we continue to make some short remarks, we are very proud of Vittra. Vittra has been a brand part of the Compulsory group for many years, and they get really top results from the school inspection, and we just want to highlight that because Vittra is also schools that is working with some of the socioeconomic tough areas in Sweden, and they perform really, really well. They also put the right grades, and we really want to show you that Vittra is important to improve school results in Sweden. And then if we look at this difference between the natural test and the actual grade, that is a question that we get a lot because it has been in the media debate in Sweden. And we just want to focus and give you this information that AcadeMedia is performing very well when it comes to these results, better than the average in Sweden, and we have also improved the differences over here. So we could say without no doubt that we are very -- we're good at setting the right grades. And then if we look at this higher educational sector, and this is a very important part of the Adult Education, important for Sweden because we still have high unemployment rate. And every year, you get the number of school places and programs that you could run the coming years. So this is very important for us. And the result in this year's result was very good for us. The number of places was up, and we increased our market share and the total number of places was also up. So the overall result when it comes to vocational education was very positive for AcadeMedia's Adult Education, and this will also help us the coming year. And this just gives you the picture of the historical development of AcadeMedia's performance because we have stable profitability, stable over a year, and now we have also improved the International Group. So the rolling 12 numbers is positive, and the result in this quarter was up both margin, revenue and -- talking all segments, in fact, also. And our international strategy and the road map for AcadeMedia has -- we have had this focus for many years now, and we have built a very solid and good platform internationally, both in Finland, both in Norway, in Poland. We are starting to look into Poland. In Germany, we have a stable platform. In the Netherlands, we have a stable platform. And if we look at the numbers here now, we are a little bit above 40% of the revenue that is outside the Swedish court system, and we are aiming for 50%. And this is a target that we will reach through organic growth, but also mainly through acquisitions. And we have a good pipeline, a lot of discussions that we will be working with 2026. And now I hand over to Petter.

Thank you, Marcus, and good morning, everyone. I will start with an update of the political reforms in Sweden. We have had 3 reforms currently -- 3 major reforms currently proposed. It's the profit inquiry, the principle of publicity and the school voucher inquiry. First report from the bottom, the school voucher inquiry. It has been announced since some time that, that that legislation proposal will be delayed until after the election. The principle of publicity has just recently come with a more detailed proposal. So I will talk a little bit more about that in a few minutes. And the property inquiry, we are still waiting for a potential proposal to come in the near future here. Next page, please. So on January 19, the Swedish government presented a legislative proposal to extend the principle of public access to all independent educational providers. And the legislation is now expected to be adopted in January 2027, which is about 1 year earlier than previously anticipated. And under this proposal, the public will have the right to request access to documents from our operations on essentially the same basis as for public authorities. And all requested documents will be subject to confidentiality assessment and formal decisions will be required in cases where information is not disclosed. We are closely monitoring the legislative process, and we have prepared for some time for an implementation. The ongoing implications, however, are assessed to be manageable within existing financial frameworks and in accordance with the principal equal conditions. Next page, please. I strongly would like to highlight our investor podcast, which is available wherever you find your podcast. And these episodes are in Swedish. For instance, in our latest pod, we did describe the proposal of public access legislation potential impact on AcadeMedia more thoroughly. And the purpose overall of this podcast is to engage with Swedish investors and other stakeholders through short focused episodes, delivering clear insights in just 10 to 15 minutes. This far, we have released 7 episodes. And as I said, you find it on all platforms, 4 pods. You can use the QR code here also. Next page, please. So let's start with the financial insights. As Marcus outlined earlier, we achieved a good growth of 4.1% year-on-year, and all segments contributed to the positive development. Additionally, our adjusted EBITA margin increased to 6.6% compared to last year's 5.8%, reaching SEK 345 million in absolute terms, up from SEK 289 million. And the increased profit has translated into higher free cash flow. Now turn to Page 12. The improved adjusted EBITA are evident across all segments, as mentioned. In the Preschool and International segment, the increase of SEK 43 million is positively impacted by acquisitions, higher volumes and efficiency improvements in our international operations. The Compulsory School segment is up SEK 11 million year-over-year. The Upper Secondary School segment saw increased earnings of SEK 5 million, primarily attributable to higher capacity utilization. Earnings were negatively affected by purchase of literature together with increased costs for libraries. Adult Education continues to report strong results, driven by increased volumes in higher vocational education. Group costs increased compared to the same period last year. We also have some nonrecurring items affecting comparability, which amounted to SEK 13 million. These are personnel costs related to harmonization of employment terms within Upper Secondary Education. Now turn to next page. The 12-month rolling net sales continued to grow and amounts to SEK 19.5 billion. The rolling 12-month adjusted EBITA amounted to SEK 1.388 billion, corresponding to a margin of 7.1%, which is within our profitability target of 7% to 8%. We continue to have a solid free cash flow. Okay. Now let's look at the quarter's development within each segment. We then start with the Preschool and International segment on Page 16. So the number of children increased by 7.7%. Our growth was primarily driven by new preschool openings. The international operations account for more than 30% of the group's total sales. Net sales increased by 5.9% year-over-year, positively affected by acquisitions. Currency changes had a negative impact of 3.9% and the organic growth was 7%. Adjusted EBITA was SEK 115 million, and the acquisitions during the first half year last year contributed positively to the performance. Okay. Move on to Compulsory School on the next page, and we note 1.3% decrease in student numbers. Adjusted for units that are to be closed, the number of students decreased by 0.6%, primarily explained by a lower number of children in the integrated preschools. Net sales rose by 2.9%, primarily explained by the annual school voucher revision. Adjusted EBITA grew by 14.3% year-over-year, reaching SEK 88 million. This is corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.2%. Moving on to Page 18 and Upper Secondary School segment. The number of students here grew by 0.5%. We saw a stable growth in sales while profitability was somewhat softer year-over-year with an adjusted EBITA of SEK 114 million compared with SEK 109 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.3%. The increased result is primarily attributable to higher capacity utilization. Higher costs connected to purchase of literature and the expansion of library staff had a negative impact on the result. Okay. Next Slide 19, and -- Adult Education, where we continue to see a strong performance with profitability now improving for the 10th consecutive quarter. Sales increased by 1.8% to SEK 501 million, mainly attributable to higher volumes in higher vocationall education and labor market services. Adjusted EBITA came in at SEK 67 million, up to 6.3% year-over-year. The adjusted EBITA margin amounted to 13.4%, which is up from 12.8% in the same period as last year. In January, AcadeMedia was awarded approximately 7,700 new study places, which is an increase of over 60% compared with the previous year. Okay. Continuing to Page 21, which is free cash flow and investments. And just in short, free cash flow for the last 12 months amount to SEK 1.342 billion. The free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA is now 71%. Maintenance CapEx as a percentage of sales continued to decline. This is a consequence of fewer openings and expansion units. Okay. The financial position on next page. Net debt excluding IFRS 16, decreased by SEK 288 million compared to last year, with the leverage ratio, excluding IFRS 16 at 0.4, well below the financial target of less than 3. Even including property-related lease liabilities, the net debt is lower. In the period, repayment on revolving facility and credit line amounted to SEK 491 million. Okay. Finally, on Page 33 here, our financial performance is against targets. Our last 12 months organic growth, including small bolt-on acquisitions, stands at 5.3%, which is within our financial target of 5% to 7% growth. Our adjusted EBITA margin is 7.1% within our target range of 7% to 8%. Under our former profitability target of adjusted EBIT, that typically is 20 basis points lower than our adjusted EBITA. As previously communicated, it would have been just below the target range. The leverage ratio of 0.4x remains well below the required threshold of 3, which leaves further room for acquisitions when opportunities occur. And with these words, I end the presentation, and we open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] the next question comes from Jonny from Jin (sic) [ Jin from SEB ].

A couple of questions from my side. I think I will start with the Preschool segment. I mean the margin looks very strong in that segment here in the quarter. And I think you mentioned some increased school voucher funding in Germany, which I think you haven't mentioned in previous quarters as well as some temporary reduced vacation expenses in Sweden. So can you maybe elaborate a little bit on these line items, respectively? And if there were any unusual timing effects that benefited the margin in this quarter? That's my first question.

So the factors that we mentioned in the report that contributes to the margin are the overall increased volumes, the higher school voucher in Germany and a lower cost level in Norway. And all of these 3 are sustainable changes, so to speak. However, we then also, as you mentioned, the temporary lower cost of vacations in Sweden. And that is, as we mentioned, more temporary nature. So it's a phasing effect.

Yes. But what is the effect from the temporary lower vacation expense in Sweden in the quarter?

You mean how much financially?

Yes.

Yes. Okay. The financial effect is about SEK 15 million.

SEK 15 million.

SEK 15 million, yes.

Yes. Okay. And the higher voucher in Germany, is that now a catch-up effect we're seeing that now? Or did you have that in the previous quarter as well?

We had partially that in the previous quarter in Q1. It's more amplified in this quarter. But all in all, I think all other factors are in line with the expectations of the improvements we have had for the margins this year for the Preschool International.

Okay. Then moving to Upper Secondary School. I think you said in the last quarter that you expect some margin pressure from the Gy25 reform and that -- I think you said that even if you increased efficiency, it wouldn't translate to high profitability during the year. Now yet 1 quarter later in this quarter, we can see that margin -- adjusted margin is up 10 bps here year-over-year. So can you maybe elaborate what happened? And did you get any extra compensation for that.

You are talking about the upper secondary, right, not the compulsory.

Yes, upper secondary school.

Sorry, yes, I heard you. I thought you talked about compulsory.

So no, upper secondary. That's right.

No, we still continue to mention, we continue to have those increased costs that put pressure on margin. But what counterbalanced is a higher capital utilization than we had expected. So there are 2 factors that balance each other. I also said that even though this margin negative effect quarter-by-quarter will be negative on the margin on the Upper Secondary School, these higher cost levels. I also said that we don't believe that it's a huge effect on the margin. I summarize that it will be difficult to increase the margin over the year in the upper secondary compared to last year's. But we will be happy if we can sustain the margin or perhaps a couple of percentage points below.

Okay. So these levels are representable going forward, would you say?

Excuse me.

The margins you do now in the Upper Secondary School segment, the adjusted EBITDA margin, that is representable going forward, would you say?

I mean between -- it depends what you mean with that because you say -- we are increasing the margin from -- to this quarter, 7.3% from last year, 7.2%. So that will imply -- that could interpret that will imply that we would expect a higher margin year-over-year this year and last year. We don't expect -- I think you should look at these 2 quarters combined, Q1, Q2. And if you look at them combined, you have a little margin reduction. And I think we continue to say what we have said before that we would be happy. It might be possible to maintain the margin year-over-year, but we don't expect the margin increase for the full year.

Okay. Moving to the Adult segment. I have one question there. It looks like you are losing some organic momentum there in the quarter and earnings momentum compared to previous quarters. And we're now starting to see lower unemployment rates in Sweden, where I suppose that higher employment rate has benefited you historically. So as this reverse, when do you expect that effect starting to hit your numbers or show in the numbers for you?

You mean if the lower unemployment rates now previously have been seen, when would that be something that would have an effect in our operation? Is that your question?

Basically is that you mentioned higher volumes in Adult segment, and I suppose that is due to higher unemployment rates. And now unemployment rate in Sweden is going down. So when do you expect that to show in your numbers?

Yes, I understand. I think first question is we have just seen just recent data that it level out slightly going down. I think it's first to be seen if it sustainably actually is going down. But we used to say that if it did go down sustainably, it probably will take a number 4 to 8 months or something until we have any clear effects on our volumes. There are some delays in the system, I would expect. Is that sufficiently or -- is it the case? I just -- yes, you can complement.

Should comment because if you look at the Adult Education and compare the different part with how this segment looked maybe 6, 7 years ago, it was more depending on the unemployment rate because then we had a lot of businesses with the labor market agency. Now it's a bigger part that is vocational program, and that is that we comment in the report that we won a lot of these places, and they are not so affected by the unemployment rate because they are almost like high schools and university. A lot of people want to re-train. So even if the unemployment will go down, it will not affect us so much as it did 6, 7 years ago because now we have built a more solid[ route ].

Okay. We'll see. But I mean, when I talk effect for you, I mean, the margin in Adult segment is already now above your target in that segment. So I suppose that you expect a lower margin ahead. And that's my question, when do you expect that to hit you?

It's difficult. That is not what we see today. We have a lot of application to the vocational training. So the adult segment is still positive.

The next question comes from Philip Ekengren from ABGSC.

So starting off just a follow-up to Jonny's questions, and I apologize if I didn't get it. But could you specify the amount of the increased costs related to new literature following Gy25 and also the increased library stuff? Could you split out the cost for it in SEK, please?

No, we don't specify that. But as I said, if you look at the combined Q1 and Q2 in terms of margin, that's a little bit decline compared to last year's margin. I think it's 0.2% or 0.3% down or so. And as I said, I think that's close to our expectations for the full year that we -- in the best case, we'll be able to sustain the margin over the year versus last year. And in a more negative case, we might have to lose the margin 0.2%, 0.3% or so.

Okay. Got it. And on the sort of principle of public or open or what we should call it, announced or presented in January, you talked of a one-off effect. Could you -- I mean, this is highly speculative from your side as well. I understand that. But could you -- and what sort of size do you think it will be because of that?

Yes, I understand. I mean, what essentially it means is that we will need to develop processes for the group. We will need to assign few dedicated resources, and we will need to not the least have established functional IT support tools dedicated for this purpose. And I think the major investment will typically be cost for running an IT project, if you think of it as an IT project, establishing these systems and processes and developing the systems and the size of that project and the terms of system. I think it's -- my best guess is it's equal to establishing or changing an ERP, but not a huge ERP without kind of risk, but rather a minor small midsized implementation of ERP in terms of size of money, if that makes any sense.

Yes. Got it. And then finally, perhaps going back to sort of the straight in adult again. Higher vocational from the Swedish state, up 60%, if I'm not mistaken. Why is that? What's the driver behind it? Why is it up so much?

So you could say that this is a little bit above our market share, but our overall market share is reflected in this what has happened now from the authorities. So of course -- but we really have the right programs because what is important when you get these sort of places is that you have the right programs that will help the students to get jobs. And we always develop our programs into that direction. So in this application, we made good success with a good market share. And of course, we will -- we hope that we will continue to do that. But the key is that we have the programs that will result in jobs, and that is what we are focused on.

The next question comes from Johan Lonnqvist Sunden from DNB Carnegie.

We talked a lot about the Adult business. Just curious to hear your -- what you say about the visibility for the spring on volumes. Do you have decent visibility or how does things look like?

The volumes look continuously strong. We don't see any negative -- even though we did discuss the just recent announced slight falling rate of unemployment, it doesn't show any at all effects on our demand here and now. So volumes continue to be good in all parts of the Adult Education. Demand is high and business is good.

And the cost ramp-up that you talked about during the year, is that still to come? Or with the still high volumes that margin should be maintained on this high level?

Yes. We have seen the ramp-up of costs. And I've said that, that might actually lead to a margin reduction. I think that what we have seen is that the risk for any significant margin reduction isn't really there because the volumes is so good and strong. But on the other hand, margin is obviously leveling out. That's what we also see if you look at the rolling 12 margin outcome.

But maybe one thing, your eyes on when it comes to this year is the increase of the school voucher. I guess you have seen that -- because if you compare with last year, we have a school voucher at the same level, but the cost development when it comes to leases was higher.

And how much of an impact can that be on, say, margins for the Swedish school operations during '26?

It's difficult to say, but we just want to comment and show you that, that is what will happen in 2026.

But are we talking about 100 basis points in Swedish school operations or it could be...

It will help us to maybe handle the cost increases that Petter mentioned. We will invest in libraries. We will invest more in teachers. We will invest more in books and so on to really get the top quality. But the recent years, we have been struggling with the high cost development. And finally, we have more of the right cost situation with the school voucher development.

Makes sense. And my final question is on the Preschool business, and we've talked a little bit about margins there. You have -- I think also in the last report, you highlighted that you have an ambition to reach 6% margin in the segment for the full year here -- the fiscal year here. Strong performance here. Is there any reason why not to believe in the 6% ambition for the full year? Or have you hiked your target given the strong performance?

No, we don't have any higher targets. So I mean, we have a strong performance in this quarter, but I don't -- it will not reflect that margin increase expectation we have going forward since part of that increase is real and substantial and part of that is a phasing effect of the vacation -- cost vacations.

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

So thank you very much for listening and questions, and have you all -- wish you all a good day. Bye-bye.