ACEA S.p.A. (ACE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining ACEA Conference Call on Results of the First 9 Months of 2022. [Operator Instructions] At this point, I'd like to hand you over to Ms. Ira Angrisani, Head of Investor Relations of ACEA.

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you very much for joining our conference call on the results of ACEA on the first 9 months of the year. Mr. Paris, CFO of the group, will outline the results. And later on, together with Mr. Songini, who is the person responsible for Investor Relations and together with me, we will take your questions.

Good evening. Now Page 2 of the presentation, and we start illustrating the performance of the group for the first 9 months of the year. As you can see, the good performance of the group continue, thanks to the good growth and the operational efficiency of the group. As you can see, the EBITDA is at EUR 1.2 billion plus 8%, EBIT EUR 485 million, plus 5% and net profit at EUR 257 million, plus 4%. Now the drivers that are at the basis of this performance are the improved operating results, the gain on sale of majority stake in ACEA's photovoltaic assets, EUR 9 million. And then the windfall tax that we mentioned before. As you can see, EUR 26 million. The capital structure is sound and sustains the business growth. CapEx of this period, EUR 700 million, up 5%. Now here, I'd like to say we also have the effects of a law decree, some EUR 50 million. And then the net debt is growing by 10% EUR 4.393 billion. Leverage net debt over EBITDA 3.3x. We confirm the guidance of the EBITDA growing between 4% and 6%. We confirm also the guidance on CapEx, which are going to be broadly in line with what we did last year, net of the effects of the law decree which I mentioned before. We are reviewing the guidance of net debt, which is growing with a range between EUR 4.4 billion, 4.5 billion, it was before EUR 4.2 billion, 4.3 billion. Let me now move on to Page 3 of the presentation. And here you can see the growth of the EBITDA, which is mainly driven by regulated businesses accounted for 78%. The non-regulated business are mainly driven by infrastructure businesses, environment and generation, particularly. The EBITDA is at EUR 1.2 billion. And here we have positive contributions by water, EUR 115 million, infrastructure EUR 264 million. Here, we had a decrease by some EUR 10 million because of the regulatory WACC that we're going to see later on. Generation contributing EUR 78.5 million, growing by EUR 24.8 million, which is mainly driven by the difference in the scope of the photovoltaic business and growth of energy prices recorded in the period. And then positive contribution also by the commercial and trading business and environment business, which contributes EUR 83.2 million, up EUR 34.2 million. Here, the factors are the elimination of the CO2 contribution of the WTE plant and then the growth of the energy prices. Page 4, we are now going to consider the different businesses. Water EBITDA growing by 5%, EUR 515.8 million. The main drivers here are the quality price, actually, the technical quality bonus that the group received and that was awarded to EUR 26.9 million. And then we have a positive performance of ACEA ATO2 and ATO5 because of operational efficiency and technical quality bonds. We also have a positive contribution by EUR 6.1 million of Equity Accounted Water Companies. Here, EUR 2.5 million are related to the water bonds and EUR 1.5 million of amortization and depreciation decrease and then post-closing adjustment. Basically, when we close the accounts of the individual companies, we have, on the contrary, a negative contribution of GORI, EUR 6.4 million because of higher costs of sludge disposals, which will be made up for [indiscernible] by financial items. Page 5, Energy Infrastructure. As you can see, the performance under the EBITDA is going down by 4% to EUR 164 million. The main drivers as we said before, is the reduction of WACC by 70 basis points versus previous year, which is now at EUR 5.2 million. The fact is basically EUR 20 million here. This reduction of margins are made up for by increase of efficiency and investments made on a RAB basis, especially investments to increase the resilience. We started again installing 2G smart electricity meters. As at the end of September, such meters amounted to 771,000. This activity had spun down because of a shortage of materials by suppliers. The energy distributed goes up to 7,142 gigawatt hours. And this is due mainly to the effect of summer temperatures, which absorbed basically the total electricity distributed. Page 6. We analyze the performance of the generation business. While this business is growing considerably, EBITDA is growing by 46%. The EBITDA stands at EUR 78.5 million. This is mainly driven by the energy price, which have partly made up for the reduction of hydroelectric volumes managed by the hydroelectric business decrease of volumes here by 78 gigawatt hours. The performance, which is driven by the price effect is growing by EUR 24.2 million. As to the pipeline of management of development of the photovoltaic plants, at the moment, the total pipeline amounts to 923 megawatts, 201 have already received the authorization and therefore, are under construction and ready-to-build, 722 megawatts awaiting authorization. The company ACEA Solar has received the authorization to build a plant in Sardinia with an installed capacity, installed power of 75 -- 77 gigawatts. This plant will start operating in 2024 with 175 gigawatt hour of yearly production. Now let's move on to Page 7, commercial and trading business. Here, you can see the EBITDA is growing by 3%. And this leads the EBITDA of the period to EUR 58 million. Here, the drivers of this performance are represented by the reduction of margins, which are related to the electricity and gas sales, EUR 13 million. This is due to higher consumptions recorded by customers, which have a fixed price contract, especially actually in the summer where we had greater consumption of electricity, which we also recorded in the infrastructure business. Now we lost a number of customers because of result of auctions for small and micro enterprises. Our enhanced production market minus 18,000 customers. Here, we partly made up for this thanks to lower external costs and by ACEA innovation and value-added services. Page 8 of the presentation, where we have the environment business. The EBITDA of this business goes up considerably. As you can see, the EBITDA of the environment business stands at EUR 83.2 million. The drivers of this growth are represented by the EBITDA from WTE plants at EUR 24.67 million, mainly driven by higher prices of energy, then EUR 10.5 million -- EUR 10.7 million, I'm sorry, the change in scope of consolidation. We now have also the consideration of the Deco Group in November 2021, EUR 8.6 million, Meg consolidated in October 2021, contribution EUR 1.6 million surplus consolidated in February 2022, EUR 0.5 million of contribution. And then the other positive effect is the release from obligation to purchase CO2 allowances for Terni plant with a contribution of EUR 11.1 million. Negative contribution by DEMAP because of the closure of a plant due to a fire at the end of 2021. And the restarting of operations partially, not totally in February 2022. Please remember the ACEA that was awarded the Polo Cirsu. It's a treatment and storage sector in Abruzzo in June 2022. ACEA Ambiente acquires 70% stake in Tecnoservizi, a mechanical treatment and recovery of recycled urban waste and nonhazardous special waste in October 2022 and ACEA Ambiente acquires Italmacero, a company specialized in mechanical treatment and recovery of recycled urban waste and nonhazardous special waste November 2022. Page 9 of the presentation. Here, we run through the EBIT and pretax profit. EBIT is growing by 5% and stands at EUR 484.7 million at the end of the first 9 months of the year. Net profit or pretax profit growing by 12%, stands at EUR 445.8 million. Here, we have gain on sale of photovoltaic assets and technical quality bonds provide a positive contribution. The effect of the ladder goes down to EUR 18 million when we take it to the pretax profit. Net profit is growing by 4%, EUR 257 million. Here, we have the contribution of windfall tax by EUR 26 million. The tax rate because of this windfall tax, 36.4% and normalized or netted on this effect, the normalized tax rate would be 30.6%. The depreciations in the period following the investments made in 2021 and also in the first 9 months of 2022, depreciations are going up by 10%, impairments, 11% and provisions minus 3% related to a specific phenomena. CapEx, as you can see on the next page, they basically are a stable period-on-period. You can see that the investments are 84% on regulated businesses, 16% for non-regulated business. The CapEx for the period amounting to EUR 700 million. As you can see, they are net of investments that receive investments. Here, we have the positive contribution of law decree #15 by EUR 14 million. The performances of the group are in line with last year and have an increase of the CapEx of the water business by EUR 38 million. Page 11 of the presentation, you can see the cash flow of the period. Cash flow is positive, as you can see and it is mainly driven by the effect of the sale of photovoltaic assets. The cash-in of technical quality bonus in the water business. We have a negative effect given by the energy scenario and then the reduction and the -- sorry, the application of the windfall tax. Let me make a comment on the energy scenario that had an impact on the net working capital, net of the good consumptions registered or recorded in the period and also because of the increase of the PUN recorded in the summer PUN. At this point, let me move on to Page 12 to my comments on the financial position of the group. As we said before, the net debt is at EUR 4.393 billion, growing by EUR 376 million versus the same period of last year. And net debt EBITDA ratio at 3.2, 3.3 versus December. Now the debt of the structure is 84% fixed rate. 1.41% is the average cost. The average maturity, 4.6 years, ratings are confirmed. As far as Fitch is concerned, a stable outlook, Moody's Baa2 negative outlook. Sustainability ratings are confirmed as CDP-A leadership, standard ethics, EE outlook upgraded to positive in July 2022. Bloomberg GEI improved to 80.66, improved in January '22, and Gaia rating improved to 82 out of 100 in January 2022. Have a revolving credit line with a sustainability-linked bond related to ESG factors which -- that occurred in August 2022.

Thank you very much, Fabio. The presentation has reached its end. We can now move on to the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is by Javier Suarez with Mediobanca.

I have 3 questions to ask, if I may. I'd like to have a more detailed explanation of the increase of your debt net that you gave us with your guidance. An increase by EUR 200 million more or less. Can you please tell us a bit more the reason below it? If I look at the Slide #11, the change in the working capital is very similar to what it was the previous year. I wonder whether this is logical or whether you are absorbing the effects of a higher debt and that in -- at the end of the year, you may have problems in taking care of the working capital absorption. Now the other question is about the supply business. I'd like to have a bit more details about what you say in Slide #7. The electricity or the gas price goes down to EUR 13 million. Can you give us an indication of the year-end performance in terms of a reduction of EBITDA of the supply activity? So far, this has been made up for -- by ACEA Innovation and value-added services. Do you think that these 2 businesses will help you make up for the performance also by the end of the year? Page 9 of the presentation, I see a growth of impairments and also a growth of -- sorry, a decrease of provisions. What can we expect by the end of the year in terms of general provisions? And what is then the effect on the net income at the moment, the net income guidance is at EUR 318 million. Is that a realistic figure? Are you comfortable with that? Or do you think that you will not be able to achieve this?

Thank you very much, Javier. I'll take the questions in order. The increase in net debt is mainly due to the absorption of working capital and this is affected by the energy scenario that we were in in the period under review. As we said in the past, now the group in 2022 wanted to offer customer, they renew their contracts carried out by the group by the GME. We always observe the PUN curve. And during the summer, the PUN curve kind of went up. You need to think in account that this switch, which was part of our projects of our pipeline has been strongly affected by the price trends recorded during the summer. What we have observed is that this phenomenon can hardly be solved or stopped from here to the end of the year. We're all observing the volatility of energy prices. The review or the revision of the guidance is because of this phenomenon difficult, if not impossible, to foresee, but which we think that it will generate its effects from here to the end of the year, but we are constantly monitoring the energy scenario. Let me move on to the question about the energy supply and the loss of margins related to energy or existing gas margins. Now let me remind you that the gas business we have is a very little business within the trading and commercial business. The loss or the reduction of margins here are basically driven by the energy world, let me call it like this. Here again, during the summer, we recorded the so-called perfect storm in terms of abnormalities in the summer and in particular, in July and in August. We had the highest temperature ever recorded by our historical trends or the figures that we have available historically. And I have to say that we have -- we go back quite a few years. Now of course, that led to an absorption of energy. Those customers that had a fixed price contract had a negative effect. Please remember that we cover all of the needs and requirements of energy sold at fixed price and we sell it to the market, although the quantities are very small. The prices are very high. And of course, this led to a reduction of margins. Can this continue from now to the end of the year? No. Can we recover it? Not really because this belongs to the past as data and we just hope that there is not going to be a change in consumption with these prices. Let me move on to the question about impairments. So far the performance of the group continues to be positive. We confirm today the positive performance of the first 9 months. What is quite clear that the effect of energy prices that we recorded in the very same period that we are reviewing where we hope that we think is going to have an effect on the behavior of our customers going forward. That led to an increase in impairments that you rightly noted. This is a component that we constantly and carefully monitor. And that's it. And of course, we also need to have a prudent approach. And then the other question about the impact on net profits. Well, we believe that taking all of these factors into account, we believe that it is going to be aligned with the year-end net profit of last year. Javier, are you satisfied of your answers? I'm not sure I understood the last part of your question. Are you comfortable with the EUR 322 million in terms of net profit? Yes, I would say, in line with the net profit of last year, it was around EUR 315 million.

The next question is by Stefano Gamberini with Equita SIM.

I also have a few questions to ask. 2 about the results and 2 questions about the forecast of potential impacts of the macro scenario. First of all, the increase of PUN prices in terms of EBITDA, what kind of impact today have in the power generation and waste? Overall, the fact that PUN went up versus last year, how much EBITDA did this produce? And what is the part of generation on there that doesn't have any cap and that has no risk that you can sell at market prices? Second question, curious about the generation. Well, I see that I have a pipeline of GDV of 223 megawatts, but I understood that you're not selling the pipeline, but you are going to sell the assets installed. Can you please confirm that everything is in the JV and the company is no longer in this? Another question about that in the press release that you are underlining that there is a scenario effect, but also there is some difficulties on the part of customers to pay their bills. Are you witnessing or do you expect to have a deterioration of the capability of customers to pay their bills? And where will this end? And what kind of actions can you put in place? Can this have an effect on dividends? Will CapEx be decreased? So what are the measures, the actions that you can put in place? And then another question about this deleverage is going above 3x the EBITDA, it's now 3.3x. There's the risk for it to go up. How can we deal with the scenario, which in this moment since you're also committed for the new WTE, the tender is going to be issued at the end of the year, EUR 600 million, EUR 700 million of investments with returns not before 4, 5 years. How can you describe this situation, which led to the deterioration of working capital, new projects and the trend of CapEx for the next year? During the latest conference, you mentioned that you could probably increase the CapEx in the water distribution business where demand is particularly strong.

Thank you. I'll try to answer your question in order. Now the increase of PUN prices in generation in this 9 months amounted to EUR 24 million WTE and EUR 24 million of generation. As we said at the beginning, when it comes to generation, there is a small effect related to the reduction of the hydroelectric power EUR 5 million. The PUN effect on generation amounts to EUR 30 million, net of [indiscernible] hydroelectric component, EUR 5 million, therefore, EUR 25 million. As to the pipeline of the photovoltaic business, well, what you said is correct. The equity agreement envisages the elimination of the pipeline business, which is, however, still within ACEA. ACEA has the right of first offer to Equitix. And therefore, it will move in the direction of the agreement signed. The pipeline is at the moment within the ACEA portfolio. How much is already part of the Equitix agreement or within the equities agreement? 27 megawatts. Now as to the impairments, well, I go back to what I said before. At the moment, we are not recording a deterioration of the loss rate for the water business. But we expect in Q4 of builds for builds in the energy business. For these reasons, we introduced a number of sensitivity factors in our models to capture this eventual increase in the impairments and this is what you see in the presentation. We assume that the increase versus last year is going to be EUR 50 million as a full year data. However, because we are forward-looking, we have tried to capture and monitor this possible worsening. Of course, we need to check everything and monitor everything and especially those evolutions, which so far haven't given actual signals of real deterioration. Please remember that we entered an agreement with [indiscernible] as far as instruments to support the installment payments, which are guaranteed -- which are going to be guaranteed by [indiscernible] guarantee. As to the net financial position, as to the debt, of course, we are taking into consideration and assessing all of the possible alternatives to support the development of our business. Specifically, the WTE, the possible alternatives here on which we can work are of different numbers. It's difficult, however, to forecast things considering the evolution of the measures that or the indications that are going to be given by the commissioner within the municipality.

Let me follow up those questions. When is the WTE tender going to be issued? And then I haven't understood the EUR 200 million is a scenario effect, but also loss or lack of payments. Now you have already recorded EUR 200 million of higher provisions that basically which have increased or which are going to increase? Or is it an estimate?

No, no, it's not like this.

I was trying to understand the situation is as following, the unpaid ratio or the extension of payments, you mentioned such a guarantee the market is very concerned about what we are going to see in Q1 about these receivables. So what are the measures that you can take in this moment to avoid a strong worsening for shareholders? And of course, a negative effect on the dividend policy for next year.

Now as far as we're concerned, we expect a deterioration on pure losses, but we haven't just yet recorded such losses. So there is no negative effect on our performance. The deterioration that we can estimate are EUR 15 million between now and the end of the year, which, however, haven't yet materialized and didn't do so in the first 9 months of the year. The builds cash-in continues to be positive and the loss rate is still in line with past performance. So the measures that we can take to support households and companies is something that everybody is doing the first measures which are now available is the [indiscernible] guarantee, which does not relate only to ACEA. Other measures are going to be made available by the government. And whenever available, we shall assess them. And then the tender for the WTE and the timing of the issuing of the tender, we're following daily this process. We don't have as yet a precise date. It looks as if it's going to be released soon, but we do not know when the tender process is going to be launched.

Now the next question by Emanuele Oggioni with Kepler Cheuvreux.

I have just a couple of questions which were not answered. One about water distribution and then what you can expect about the tariff increases. Now you received the authorization of ATO2 by 5.2% for 2023. Do you have indications for other ATOs? And then also when it comes to water distribution, what do you expect? And what is the rationale behind the new prices or energy components, cost components are recognized within the tariff for 2023, considering that in 2022, it was EUR 177 per megawatt hour. And then I have one last question about ASM turning. Now we read in the press that you potentially may acquire a stake up to 50% of this EUR 110 million of enterprise value. Is this a transaction that you're thinking of making and is -- what is the timing of this? And then I go back to the questions from my colleague before. Now considering the deterioration of the working capital, you need to finance the working capital and this goes to the detriment of other investments, organic investments and the acquisition investments and then you need to keep debt under control and preserve the EPS, the dividend per share.

Now as far as the water business is concerned, and as far as tariffs trends are concerned, we believe that it is going to be in line, although that the authorization process hasn't been closed there, not even for ATO2, although we confirm a growth by 5.2%. Now the position of ARERA, the authority, about the cap to be applied for 2023 hasn't yet been formalized. And therefore, we should have to see what the overall position is going to be.

Now I do apologize for interrupting you, do you know whether this is going to be decided by the end of the year?

Well, usually yes, this is what [indiscernible]. Now the time for the definition of these items coincides with the end of the year. But considering all of the discussions we have about the measures which need to be taken to make up for the effect of the price increases on bills. Maybe we can't exclude these discussions, they might postpone the decision as to the turning, ASM turning. We operate in their area. The process hasn't been closed and we will give you the related information when the process is concluded. The amounts that you mentioned relate to the size of the business, which is the object of a possible transaction.

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, we do not have any other question from the conference call.

Well, then thank you very much. I would like to thank you all for joining our conference call. As usual, we are available should you have any other questions. Have a nice evening. Bye-bye. Thank you.

This is the Chorus conference call operator. The conference call is now over. You can disconnect your phones. Thank you. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]