ACEA S.p.A. (ACE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call operator. Welcome to the presentation of results of the ACEA Group as of December 31, 2022. [Operator Instructions] Let me now yield the floor to Ms. Ira Angrisani, the Head of Investor Relations for ACEA, please.

Thank you. Good afternoon. Thanks for connecting to the presentation of results of the ACEA Group as of December 31. Mr. Fabio Paris, the CFO of the company; and Mr. Stefano Songini, the Director of Investor Relations and Sustainability will now present the results, and then we'll go on with the Q&A session. Fabio?

Thank you, Ira. Good afternoon, everyone. So let's move on to the presentation. We will begin with slide at Page 2. So of course, the market situation and the market environment in 2022 is well known to all of us. It has been characterized especially in the second part of the second semester by a macroeconomic scenario, which was heavily affected by the price of energy and the inflation and the consequent increase of rates which made for a very challenging environment in the second part of the year. Despite that, the group's performance has posted, performance is in line with the results we expected. So basically, we had excellent performance for the whole group. Let's switch over to Page 3. This slide summarizes the main dealings and the main highlights that have been carried out throughout the year. I would only like to point out the highlights of the last quarter because all the others have been already announced at the previous quarter. During the month of October, in particular, we completed the acquisition of Tecnoservizi. In November, we completed the acquisition of Italmacero. And in December we completed the business combination and acquisition of stake in ASM Terni. Of course, as we understand these transactions are concentrated on the environment area in keeping with the strategy that the group adopted during previous periods, and we keep emphasizing the key focus of the group on ESG factors. Another relevant event which occurred in the fourth quarter was the appointment of Mr. Fabrizio Palermo as CEO of the group. Ever since he was appointed, the whole management refocused the company to contain costs and to enhance the strategy of the group. This yielded good results in terms of obtaining the quarter's performance, and it's actually offset the increase of some extraordinary cost and events which occurred in the last part of the year, including the increase of profit taxation, the increase of interest rates and the increase in credit provisions that the -- sorry, credit impairment that the group has set aside considering the scenario that may have a negative impact on credit quality. Special attention was also due to some strategic elements, including the unblocking of [indiscernible]. So besides the actual work being unlocked, we also obtained public funding for plant, which has already been set aside in the stability of 2023 for about EUR 700 million. We also obtained funds from the PNRR for about EUR 733 million. We obtained authorization and we started the process to create the fourth line in San Vittore. And finally, we presented the project for the City of Rome. Another important thing that happened on February 17 was Barbara Marinali been appointed as Chairperson of our Chair. Now let's shift over to Page 4. As I said already, we are proud of the results that the group has achieved during 2022. Revenues stand at EUR 5.130 billion -- EUR 5.138 billion, so plus 29%. The effect of growth is due mainly to the increase of energy prices. EBITDA stands at EUR 1.305 billion, plus 4%, in line with the reviewed guidance which was recently reviewed. EBIT stands at EUR 566 million, slightly decreasing minus 3% over last year. And in this particular case, the decrease of EBIT is due to the increase of impairments, as I said earlier, because of the worsening we introduced in the last quarter. As far as this factor is concerned, I would also to point out that actually the performance that the group is actually accounting for now under the credit heading, is in line with our expectations, and there's no worsening of the situation. Net profit is EUR 280 million. It's minus 11% versus last year. In this particular case, the most relevant effect is the windfall tax, which has an impact of EUR 38 million on net profit. Without that, net profit would actually be EUR 318 million, which would mean an increase versus the performance we had last year. CapEx stands at EUR 1 billion, which is plus 8%. Let me also point out that as far as CapEx is concerned, this includes gross increase due to law decree #50, which is the price review on public tenders, which accounts for about EUR 49 million. And on that particular component, the group also started some possible activities to account for that in the future, but this is something which will appear in 2023 as an outcome of reimbursement requirements. Net financial position stands at EUR 4.440 billion, plus 11%. And I think when we announced the guidance review, we also said net debt is mainly affected by the energy scenario we have observed throughout the year. And this is due to a greater absorption of working capital because of the change of mix in the procurement of energy on over-the-counter and different over-the-counter markets, which meant significant shortening of payment terms. So [indiscernible] is now paid at 8 days which is not shorter than before. The net debt to EBITDA ratio is 3.4x. So we can confirm the robustness of the group. The EBITDA is 87% from the regulated market and CapEx which we invested in 2022, 88% in the regulated markets. These percentages also include the environment business. Since 2022 for the first year of implementation on this, virtually all of the group's plants are managed under the regulation regime. Dividend will remain stable even in this challenging scenario we have described. So unit dividend which was suggested by today's Board of Directors meeting, is EUR 0.85 per share. So the payout is 65% and the dividend yield is 6.6%. Guidance for 2023 is still up because EBITDA is expected to grow by anywhere between 2% and 4%. CapEx is broadly in line with 2022. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will be below 3.8x. So on that particular component, let me point out that actually the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is the outcome of a pretty accurate assessment. In the scenario we have worked out on those metrics. We did consider some elements that keep absorbing working capital in view of the energy scenario and in view of the impact on -- of regulations on our business. The underlying scenario, the value of the price of energy we assumed when working out our assumptions is EUR 280 per kilowatt hour. And even as we speak, we can actually observe that the scenario is a lower price of energy. On the other side, we imagine the introduction of a cap on the water tariffs that has the possibility to totally recover the price of energy for the year 2023. So just to give you an order of magnitude on those metrics, both accounts for about EUR 320 million of worsening in our account, and that partially justifies the very cautious assumptions we are using for next year. Let's move to Page 5. And we can actually look at some financials for the group. EBITDA is increasing by EUR 49 million. As we said, it stands at EUR 1.305 billion. We know that 86% of the business comes from the regulated market. The most relevant effect, which we'll see in the next few slides, they have characterized the performance of 2022 are the impact regulation which brought about a decrease of WACC, which meant a reduction of about EUR 26 million versus the year before. The technical quality bonus for water services was plus EUR 27 million and the release of the Terni plant from the obligation to purchase CO2 allowances meant plus EUR 18 million. So let's move on to Page 6. As we said earlier, EBIT is reduced -- is reducing by about 3%, and it stands at EUR 565.9 million for 2022. The most relevant effect over and beyond the increase of depreciation which is mainly due to the constant investment policy that the group has embarked in the last few years, including in 2022. So besides depreciation, the extraordinary components that had an impact on EBIT in 2022 was the increase of the credit loss provisions that now stands at EUR 113 million versus EUR 86 million for 2021. And this was decided because of the introduction of the stress scenario we used to measure possible credit deteriorations which may occur if payments contract in the future. Net profit stands at EUR 280 million, as we said. Net of the windfall tax, this could have been EUR 318 million. Tax rate because of this windfall tax effect stands at EUR 37.6 million (sic) [ 37.6% ]. Without that, the tax rate would actually be slightly lower than the year before because the normalized tax rate for 2022 would be 29.8%. So let's move on to Page 7 and look at investment. CapEx is EUR 1 billion for 2022, with an increase of EUR 70 million versus the year before. As I said, the most relevant CapEx would be invested in energy infrastructure and water. And starting this year, we also included environment under regulated businesses. And altogether, they account for 88% of CapEx for this year. Throughout the year, investment and CapEx have been affected by some variations in the scope by about EUR 21 million. So that includes the impact of law decree #50 for the reduction of prices on regulated contracts. Page 8. Page 8 shows cash flow for this year. This is cash flow for 2022. Should we compare working capital between 2022 and 2021. Well, it seems to be very similar in both years. But actually, compared to our original forecast, there's an extraordinary absorption of capital because energy scenario situation. To give you some quantity on the impact of procurement, procurement energy versus GME, which had an input in '22, and it meant an extra absorption of about EUR 70 million because of this change in payment mix. Another element which has characterized that the cash flow in this period is a windfall tax which in terms of the economic weight over the year is EUR 39 million. And during 2022, the average paid is EUR 26 million. As to the other changes in cash flow, we see CapEx here. We talked about that before. Debt fund includes the effect of losses on pension funds too. Under taxes paid, we have already specified the effect of the windfall tax and M&A transactions would actually give a positive contribution. We should actually consider this is a net effect between the deals that have been concluded or better paid during the year and the positive effect coming from cash in from the disposal of the photovoltaic business, which gave a positive contribution of about EUR 150 million. Finally, let me point out the impact of IFRS 16 which is EUR 36 million increase, which means that this effect comes from the postponement that the group made on the photovoltaic disposal strategy. You may remember that we have a pretty important pipeline under development now and the group's strategy was that of contributing within the joint venture to the development of photovoltaic assets. During 2022, we have not worked on that disposal. To manage, let's say, the immediate effect and the price increases that have been posted throughout 2022. However, this strategy is confirmed. And IFRS 16, I'm referring to is virtually connected to the use rights of the stretches of land where we are developing the new photovoltaic plants. So this particular component will be deconsolidated as we go in keeping with the strategy we have announced already. Let's now move on to Page 9. We already gave you some elements that actually characterize the group's financial structure and the effect we had on the increase of the net financial position, which is now EUR 4.450 billion, which is increasing by EUR 450 million versus last year. The structure of the group is very robust also considering the financial component. 92% of the debt has maturities after 2023, and 84% of the debt we have is fixed rate. The average cost is 1.44% and the average term is 4.4 years. The ratings confirmed the robustness of the group Fitch rates as BBB+ with stable outlook, and Moody's is rating as Baa2 with a negative outlook. We also need to point out that in mid-January, early February, the group has once again gone back to the financial markets through the issuance of 2 bonds. It's actually one bond and one tap on the same instrument for a grand total of EUR 700 million, and we placed them successfully, also because they carry a very interesting rate considering the market conditions of the time. Now Page 10 shows some details on individual business areas. Water, here, we confirm a 2.1% growth. EBITDA is EUR 669 million. The growth in this period is characterized by the quality premium of EUR 27 million. The quality bonus ACEA ATO2 contribute for about EUR 24 million, thanks to the quality bonus. The other equity-accounted water companies contribute for about EUR 9 million. And also the equity-accounted water companies that did obtain benefits from the quality bonus, the technical quality bonus. And the other element is probably aqua, which actually saw a better performance compared to last year. The negative performance we have to report is that of the Gori company, and this is mainly due to 2 components. But the most relevant one is the absence of tariff increases for the social remuneration, which is a technical component within Gori. And in terms of regulations, the company was not able to obtain this for 2022. As for water, there's another interesting element, which is the growth of 6% of RAB, which now stands at EUR 3.886 billion. Let's now go to Page 11 and look at the performance in the energy infrastructure business. In this area, performance is affected by the decrease of about 5% of EBITDA, and this is due mainly to the reduction of WACC, which you may remember, decreased from 5.9% to 5.2% of last year. And the economic impact of that reduction accounts for about EUR 26 million. Part of that is offset through higher efficiency and better profitable investments, but we didn't totally offset the negative impacts. Once again, let me point out that RAB increased by 3%, and the value now stands at EUR 2.539 billion for 2022. In total, the distributed energy is increasing, 9.3 gigawatt hours. And the number of PODs is still stable at EUR 1.6 million. Now Page 12 shows detailed performance under generation. Here, EBITDA is up 13%, and the most relevant effect of this growth is the such of price, which contributed for an average of EUR 298 per megawatt hour for 2022. And this was actually partly offset by a reduction in the hydroelectric volumes, which accounted for a loss of 95 gigawatt hours. Both together -- both metrics together and the EBITDA for the period was plus EUR 21 million. As to the development of photovoltaic assets, as I said earlier, we confirm the group's strategy to grow in that business. The pipeline now stands at 170 megawatts under construction or ready to build of these 211 megawatts are already consented either under construction or ready to build whereas 859 megawatts are awaiting consents and authorizations. And eventually, we have the impact of the Sostegni Ter law decree which introduced the cap on the sales price of electricity. So the impact on the Sant’Angelo hydroelectric power plant was a reduction of about EUR 18.3 million for 2022. Page 13 shows the commercial and trading performance. This business posted an increase in performance of about 12%. The EBITDA shifted from EUR 80 million in 2021 to EUR 90 million in 2022. In this particular case, the energy sold decreased to 7 terawatt hours -- 7.7 terawatt hours, in line with strategy to limit the risk because the group is short on energy produced. And so there was a specific focus in trying to identify those supplies that show a law decree of risk. And so we intended to carefully focus on the choice of clients to be served and on the performance to be provided. Customers are decreasing slightly because of the disposal of some projection market customers. We lost 18,000 customers in 2022. Let me remind you that for 2023, the group will have access to 148,000 new customers as a result of the auction for small and micro enterprises on the enhanced protection markets. But these customers are only going to be accounted for starting in 2023. The growth of EBITDA for the financial year is mainly due to ACEA Innovation. Thanks to the energy efficiency projects, they -- that the organization embarked in. And also, this is thanks to an increase in value-added services for Acea Energia. Page 14 shows the performance of the environment area, the Acea Ambiente business. Here again, we posted a significant increase of margins. EBITDA stands at EUR 101.6 million in 2022, up nearly 60%, mainly this growth is due to the increase of margins and the increase of energy prices of San Vittore and Terni plants that accounted for a growth of EUR 16 million. Also the new scope of consolidation helped increase EBITDA by 12.4%. So the Meg group, the Deco group, the Serplast and Italmacero acquisitions changed the scope. And we accounted for the new scope starting when the companies were integrated in the group results, as you see on the slide. As a consequence, the new scope of consolidation increased the treatment and disposal of waste, which increased from 1.5 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes in 2022. And the electricity sold is virtually stable, which is the electricity produced through waste to energy installations. At the beginning, we said that the Terni plant also contributed EUR 18 million when it was released from the obligation to purchase CO2 allowances. Now having said that, I will yield it over to Stefano for the rest of the presentation.

Thank you, Fabio. Good afternoon, everyone. Let me give you some quick ESG highlights. So we'll begin with our environmental performance. In 2022, it was excellent again. We did achieve very good results, and we are at Page 15 now. So we confirm our role as the key water operator in Italy with 8.6 million inhabitants served. And the water loss reduction, which is something that is very important for the group was minus 6% versus the year before, which means a savings of about 30 million cubic meters of water versus the year before. Another very important factor we're very proud of is ATO2, where water losses were reduced to 27.8%. In 2019 losses were 34%. So this was a major performance and major improvement. Let's go on with energy infrastructure. We distributed 9,355 gigawatts of electricity. And we keep improving the efficiency of consumption and raising awareness about consumption since we have now installed about 600,000 2G smart meters and this will make our consumers more aware of their consumption. As far as generation is concerned, we generated 941 gigawatt hours, of which 68% from the renewable sources. Of course, that 68% includes very limited production this year from the hydroelectric plants because of very dry conditions. It's about minus 25% compared to the year before. An interesting factor is the amount of prosumers clients. There are now 14% more than the year before, about 18,000 and the energy produced and fed into the grid is 74% from photovoltaic. So this is a very important development also in view of the developments connected to energy communities. ACEA Ambiente produced 36 gigawatts hours of energy, about 220,000 cubic meters of biogas produced through anaerobic digestion, which is plus 16% from the year before. And also through our composting plants, we produce 37,000 tons of high-quality compost, which is plus 31% versus 2021. Commercial and trading, of course, as Fabio said, in the 3 markets, we keep pushing green offers. So 100% green energy and offset gas and 42% of the energy source on the free market is actually green energy. One final thing on ESG, our engineering and services division, which has actually worked on 365,000 analytical determinations on drinking water at ATO2 alone.So it's a major quality effort. Slide 16 shows our social, governance and economic performance. So in particular, we worked on the community. I'm referring in particular to the vaccination hub that we had at ACEA. We closed in January this year after delivering over 171,000 doses of vaccines. We keep opening new water kiosks. We now have 166 in the areas where we have operations. Workforce. We're very proud to be still a top-quality employer. 99% of employees are permanent. During 2022, we hired about 427 new people, of which 43% are aged 30 or under. So obviously, we're pursuing this renewal of the workforce also in terms of upskilling them. As far as suppliers are concerned, we have been certified as top employers in 2023 as well, January '23. And recently, we also created equality, diversity and inclusion committee, which we combined to an equality, diversity and inclusion policy. And their activities will be managed by committee reporting to the CEO directly. So we are the first listed Italian multi-utility utility to obtain certification on gender equality. Now, suppliers. Here again, in view of the new directives we are implemented in terms of ESG and sustainability, of course, 78% of our suppliers are qualified. They actually completed the set assessment questionnaire on sustainability aspects. And this year, we increased by 129%. The amount of suupliers rated with the Ecovadis platform, they are now 339 and this speaks for supplier quality. In terms of suppliers quality, again, we performed over 14,700 inspections on work sites this year. As Fabio said earlier, besides issuing 2 green bonds in January and February this year, another very interesting issuing was another credit line. We have negotiated with [indiscernible] last year for EUR 200 million and revolving sustainability rating linked to revolving credit facility, which is actually connected to the improvement to specific ratings we have agreed with the counterparty. Now let's look at Page 17. Our ratings. So as you see, we improved in virtually all of our ratings with the only exception of CDP where, unfortunately, we have not yet communicated science-related targets. And so we suffered a downgrade in there, but we're working on it. And so we are confident we can improve, too. And ACEA in '22 has been included in the MIB ESG Index too, which means, of course, that our position as ESG conscious company has been formally approved and certified. That's all from us. So if you have questions, we'll be happy to take them now.

[Operator Instructions] The first question will be asked from Javier Suarez of Mediobanca, please.

Good afternoon I have 2 or 3 questions. So the first is about guidance and debt for 2023. Net debt seems to be higher than EUR 5 billion. Considering that the operating cash flow generation and CapEx of the company are virtually the same amount, the credit of the company should increase year-over-year, in line of -- with debt payment about EUR 200 million. So the increase of debt year-over-year is about EUR 700 -- sorry, EUR 700 million. So that seems to be similar to the previous situation, which was EUR 500 million. So I would like to understand the reasons why there was this EUR 500 million working capital negative assumption in 2023. In your presentation, you said the working capital is worsening and there is an assumption on the review of water tariffs too, which would offset the recovery in energy costs. So could you please tell us how do you expect this split between these 2 factors to play around? And do you expect any recovery in working capital absorption in the following years? And as far as water regulation is concerned, is that something that's going to happen again in the future or not? So my second question is what does it mean for ACEA to have an EBITDA, which is nearly 4x the previous business plan. So you were mentioning 3x in the previous forecast, and that was quite comfortable to the company. Now apparently, the debt-to-EBITDA is about 4x and not 3x. So what implications does that have for the company in terms of CapEx and dividend, too? My third question is about guidance for 2023. I was interesting to understand whether you can provide us with guidance on the level of provisions, which you consider fair for 2023. So we know that credit loss provisions are increasing quite significantly, especially for credit loss provisions. So I'd like to understand from your viewpoint, what kind of net income is compatible with the guidance you have provided for 2023. Also considering that the market consensus is about EUR 310 million.

Thank you, Javier. Okay. Let me try and answer your questions in the order you asked them. So let's actually start with guidance on debt. So Javier, the numbers are correct. Of course, the variation is about EUR 700 million. As I was saying at the beginning, we tend to be very cautious in providing forecast for 2023. In particular, what I said about supply is about the continuation of switching offers between fixed price and variable price. Ever since the beginning of 2022, as the offers to free market clients were expiring, the group started to offer to existing customers on the contracts with indexed prices. For the group, that implies a change in the way we purchase and procure energy. Because within the group, we cannot count on enough generation to meet all the needs of our sales. So switching to that mode means that all the contracts we used to serve at fixed price were based on procurement of energy through bilateral agreements, which were over-the-counter agreements with leading suppliers and payment conditions that ranged anywhere between 60 to 90 days of payment terms. Indeed, the procurement of energy for variable price offers for the group is now done by the group directly from GME. And the payment terms of GME is 8 days. So we assume that, of course, the strategy that the group adopted here is that of continuing to affirm index price offers. Since we assume the average, every energy scenario for 2023 should be EUR 280 per megawatt hour, the progressive switching of procurement towards GME means that of the EUR 300 million I said earlier, about EUR 150 million would be given to GME. Of course, there are some measures that can be adopted to contain that effect, certainly the assessment of procurement possibilities with bilateral contracts is one. We're not considering that today because the trade-off could be -- that have been able to negotiate with counterparties financial effect, which would be due to this delay in payments. But the other effect is based on the energy scenario we have assumed, which is, of course, the reduction of the energy scenario, which would bring about remarkable reduction in the possible absorption of working capital. To give you an order of magnitude, 30 days payment terms on the parts on this tax boat from GME for the ACEA group account for about while anywhere between EUR 40 million and EUR 50 million of working capital absorbed. Another element we've mentioned to explain the cautious position we've taken in our assumptions for 2023 is relevant to the water business. As we speak, ARERA has not taken any position on the introduction of caps on tariffs to acknowledge the price of energy. The assumptions we've made for the possible implementation of a cap during 2023 is that we may see a cap of the same size of the cap we assumed in 2022. Now since we have no benchmark for different forecasts, we believe that the 2022 cap is a pretty cautious gap, and in case ARERA were to implement it, hopefully, this should be a worst-case scenario. Something else is -- we consider this to be timed measures. So the cap may be implemented in a specific moment in time, but then we should go back to normal in the 2-year time horizon, which is what we would normally expect. But the real answer is that we're all waiting for ARERA to make a decision on this and to provide its measures or if any, in this respect. As to the planned scenario, this will be a top priority for the new Board of Directors. Of course, the business plan will be best, which will include a number of measures, which normally should be used to manage and prioritize strategies and programs for the group. So as we speak, we don't see any particular difficulty in managing this transition, in managing the debt position we have now. We also know that in our 2023 forecast, we have included no strategic action to contain the net debt, whereas this is absolutely something which the group may decide to do. As to provisions for 2023, we assume it's going to be pretty much in line with the standard performance of the group, which is about EUR 90 million on a yearly basis. We have introduced worsening for 2022 because we decided to adopt a credit impairment system we built on top of the existing model. So the existing model, like all possible models developed before we came to this conjuncture has a floor, meaning it doesn't include any possible sudden change of conditions observed on the market. So it doesn't provide for any sudden worsening of payment performances. We do imagine this is a one-off measure. We may need to manage a possible sudden worsening of this situation. We do not expect that to impact 2023, too. Also because the 2 fundamental elements that characterize ACEA business is that as far as regulated businesses are concerned, the defaults will have to be recovered in our tariffs, depending on what scenario will have to come to terms with. And as far as the customer services concerned for the free market, the risk management provisions will also mean that the customer set default will no longer be served if they keep being defaulting. So what we did is identify a possible sudden worsening. It's a possible one-off negative effect, which may actually be suffered in the time between when performance deteriorates, and we acknowledge that in our accounts. So I'm not sure, did I answer all of your questions?

So there was another question about net financial position being 4x and up 3. And what does it have on dividends?

Yes. Thanks, Ira for reminding me. Yes, so actually, we don't see in this debt scenario -- well, as I told you, the group is pretty confident about this management of net debt. And so we can actually confirm in our guidance about the ability and about to run CapEx, which is in line with the regulated business performance. So in 2023, too, the investment mix will be in line with the group's standards and habits. So we don't see any particular challenge in actually achieving that performance, nor do we expect any negative impact on dividend distribution. Thank you. I think we answered everything.

We have another question from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo, please.

I also have 3 questions. Can you help me reconcile some accounts? So if I look at leverage and what you said, RAB is about EUR 6.4 billion, EUR 6.5 billion at the end of 2022. If I'm looking at the RAB for water, in particular, are you also closing companies that are equity accounted for, besides that accounted for line by line. And if that is so at EUR 3.9 billion, what's the difference between the target of EUR 4.9 billion, which I think I saw in some of the presentations that have been uploaded on the website recently. So can you give me some color and reconsolidate some of the accounts there? And also connected to this, considering your -- looking at the CapEx for waste business, so you're actually considering waste and regulated CapEx. So the evaluation of the RAB of those treatment plans may actually become a part of the consolidated RAB for the group in the future, too. My second question is about the possible prices and possible leverage on the 2023 targets. So we're talking about EUR 280 per megawatt hour. Now considering that cautious level on leverage and the end-of-year targets, I was wondering are you using the same assumed prices for the operating part of the business? In other words, if for electrical generation, are you assuming the same price? And are you assuming the same price for energy you're going to purchase, too? And one final question is about -- well, I think I understand that the company wants to become more geared towards full regulated markets. So considering the possible sharp increase of debt, are you considering you may want to dispose of some liberalized companies, energy supply, in particular, even though, as you said, the debt level of the company is just a phase of transition, so it's sustainable on your side?

Thank you very much. I'll also try and answer all your questions. Now as far as RAB is concerned, and the numbers you mentioned, do not include the equity-accounted companies. So the value of water is EUR 3.886 billion, including Terni, Gori and not the equity-accounted water companies to give you an order of magnitude after EUR 2.660 billion in terms of RAB. Should we include the RAB of equity-accounted water companies to the total group RAB for water would be EUR 5.420 billion. As to the RAB for electricity distribution, it's EUR 2.539 billion and this all belongs to the areti company. As to CapEx for the environmental area, this RAB is only for water and energy distribution. So it does not include environment. But your question is well pointed. I mean, the evolution of regulations in the environmental area tends to become more and more similar to the previous business we've run. So what we can say today is that it's just 1 plant in ACEA group and a pretty small one, by the way, which is not included in what we may call minimum plants. So in the extreme synthesis, we can do today in the regulation of the environmental area. That means we are still remunerating WACC over investment. So that's kind of broad-based mechanism, too, WACC over CapEx. So 2022 is actually the first year for this kind of accounting. So it's a component we'll have to assess as we go. And definitely, the ACEA group installations because of their features are installations that tend to close the cycle of waste management. And so they have been identified by individual regions where they're located as total waste management and recycling plants. So every 3 years or 4 years, their so-called minimum plants classification is reviewed. And so it's a bit too early to understand how things will evolve over the longer run and how regulations will change. As to the generation price scenarios, well, thanks for your question, actually. I was forgetting to highlight this. Let me remind you that a cap is introduced on the prices for the generation of energy without using gas, so EUR 180 per megawatt hours. The current limits, I think, will hold until June. And for the whole of 2023, we actually assumed this cap is going to continue unchanged. So we assume that the revenue recognition cap for the generation will continue throughout 2023. So as far as possible, we assume a cautious position on generation, too. Then ACEA is indeed a multi-utility, which is specializing in the regulated market, which is actually shown by the CapEx which isn't we've made and the EBITDA position we have. As to the strategic assessment we'll perform, this will be a priority for the new business plan and the new Board of Directors, which will certainly follow along these guidelines. So we've always highlighted that this group is a multi-utility manager in the regulated business.

Next question from Stefano Gamberini of Equita SIM, please.

My first question is about Slide 8, cash flow. You said there's been a major absorption of cash flow in 2022. And you said that the impact of GME is about EUR 180 million -- negative EUR 170 million. However, I that the delta working capital is slower -- sorry, lower than '21. So there's another element to it. And why is it there was a worsening of guidance? The change in working capital happened in the last 9 months and the delta is similar to last year. My second question is about debt, too. The leverage is 3.8x, slight or similar. So keeping BBB, well, Fitch has not really put in an observing position, but to keep investment grade, what kind of leverage should you have? Where do your risk being downgraded in terms of leverage? Something else I'd like to understand concerns guidance, again. So for next year, you see EBITDA increasing by EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million. Considering that in water, you have EUR 29 million of quality premium for '18, '19. So if we take out another EUR 12 million, which is the CO2 certificates that are no longer compulsory for the Terni plant and are helping, but they are one-off. That means another EUR 30 million less. So EUR 80 million, EUR 90 million of EBITDA are going on a like-for-like basis, but where do you think they're going to come from in 2023? What scope are they coming from? The third question is about electricity, again. And if I understand you well, waste meant EUR 16 million EBITDA more this year. I think it's 0.3 terawatt hours of production for -- from Terni. So it's about 50 to 60 megawatt hours more. So in 2023, we're going to have a negative impact on the energy price, which is capped from waste. And is the same going to happen in PowerGen, where you had EUR 10 million more. So I [Audio Gap] at EUR 50 per megawatt hours and the other part didn't. So next year, what can we expect, I'm trying to understand whether in year-on-year variations, the energy scenario will actually have a negative impact on the sale of electrical energy. Sorry, there's one final question, if I may. And the last question is about waste, again. So would you please tell us what kind of investment you have in mind for the fourth line of San Vittore. How much are you going to invest there? And what EBITDA and when are we going to have it, what year? And once again, the WTE of Rome installation is another question. I know it's a pretty sensitive issue right now. But I'm trying to understand with you if I'm investing in EUR 600 million to EUR 700 million in the next 4 years, and EBITDA is only going to increase in 4 years' time. So how can I fund that CapEx with the kind -- with the current debt structure?

Thank you. I hope I'll remember everything. Stefano, should I forget something, just let me know. Now cash flow. I was mentioning the negative effect we posted. Without that, of course, we would expect our original forecast on working capital, which was more, let's say, optimistic. For operations, we have a cash flow improvement of about EUR 88 million, which was in our pipeline already. Then 2 more effects have been reported in this period. So you've mentioned them as one-off, but let me try and explain this a bit better. So certainly, we did actually have an improvement from selling the CO2 stakes, which was an economic improvement and an improvement of the cash flow, too. Also, we cashed in the technical quality bonus for this period, which was about EUR 26 million. So that actually accounts for fluctuations in working capital in 2022. I had only talked about the negative side, but actually there were factors that offset that scenario. As to the guidance on EBITDA, well actually, we're not considering in this guidance, the effects of any possible technical quality bonus for 2023. Because, of course, if you are familiar with the regulations, you may know that this technical quality mechanism did not allow us to provide any advanced forecast on the possibility to achieve that goal. So this is the reason why we haven't accounted for it. However, let me mention that in the fourth quarter, the overall scope suffered a one-off reduction for 2 specific components, which were Gori, as we pointed out, in the slides for a decrease of about EUR 8.5 million, which we assume will not actually happen again in 2023. And also there is another impact of about EUR 13.2 million in Q2 for end of year liabilities because local regulators eliminated some regulations, which were about something that has been pending because of the transitory tariff system implementation. So it was dating back to 2018, 2012, and it was still pending since then. So these 2 components did have an impact on the performance and those were one-off effects in 2022, but they're not likely to have an impact on 2023. As to the energy scenario, as we said earlier, the implementation of a tariff cap we assume for 2023, is likely to remain unchanged throughout the year. So we assume that cap for the environment area, too. And to give an order of magnitude on the impact on that gap on the energy scenario for environment, we assume a reduction of about EUR 15 million. As to the rating impact, discussions with rating agencies are currently ongoing. For Moody's, we have already discussed this with them quite a long time ago, and they confirmed they feel confident about their rating for the group. Then the fourth line, yes. The fourth line of San Vittore, as we said earlier, we just received authorization and right now, and hopefully, we'll finish by March. We are completing auctions and identifying the company which is going to build it. So if everything proceeds as per our original plans we should be able to start building towards the end of the year. As we speak, the CapEx for the fourth line of San Vittore should be EUR 46 million, and we assume we'll expense that in 2023. So we think it will take 12 to 18 months before the plant is completed. So as per auction, the whole plant should cost about EUR 200 million, right?

Yes, EUR 200 million to EUR 230 million, that should be the total investment. Then the gentleman was asking about EBITDA and about EBITDA and about the WTE in Rome.

Well, Stefano, as you said, the waste-to-energy plant of Rome, we did present our project. It's so-called manifestation of interest so far. And as far as timing is concerned, we are going to get to know something more about it as the city works on it. Timing will be determined by the auction plan if the City of Rome decides to continue with this project of ours, but this is likely to happen after the summer. So after -- as we speak, we are not in a position to tell you anything more about it.

Next question, Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux, please.

I have a few questions, too. The first is a recap on the moving parts you have assumed in 2023 for the net working capital. Can you give me a brief summary to break down the EUR 700 million of increase from EUR 4.4 billion to EUR 5.1 billion or 3.8x? So the extra EUR 700 million in -- for the worst case scenario, how do you break it down? Is this net working capital connected to pass regulatory in water or to diluted payments from end customers or other moving parts? So help me reconcile that better. So that's my first question. The second question is on water. In ATO5 and Gori, EBITDA decreased in 2022 in Gori. This was explained by the lack of tariff increases. But apart from what happened in 2022, I'd like to understand what do you expect for ATO5 and Gori in terms of growth of their EBITDA in 2023. And on water, again, the Terni water integrated system, it was supposed to bring about EUR 20 million of EBITDA per year. So here again, 2020 was lower. So how much EBITDA do you expect from 2023? Then I have another question on working capital, again. So part of the EUR 700 million of worsening of net working capital, is it due to the negative effect of the worsening of the working capital for water? With the cost of energy at EUR 280 per megawatt hour, well, I think eventually, you should indicate a threshold, which is not higher than generation EUR 180. So if we decreased that by EUR 100, what kind of sensitivity do we have? What delta improvement of net working capital could we have? Then finally, as for the moving parts of EBITDA 2023, for the organic growth of '23, this is quite clear for water. And for regulated electricity infrastructure, I'd like to have some guidance on waste. Because we have a negative impact by about EUR 15 million from waste to energy in '23 versus '22. Overall, I expect waste EBITDA to grow by about EUR 100 million altogether in 2023. So can you give us some guidance on that? And also for retail, do you expect a positive performance of retail in terms of EBITDA for 2023, too, after the very good performance in 2022. And then one final question. Do you have any idea of when the new plant might be released?

Let me quickly tell about the EUR 700 million. EUR 700 million is actually the worsening. And of that EUR 700 million, EUR 300 million would be due to extra absorption from the supply of water. Of that EUR 300 million, about EUR 150 million, so 50% from supply and EUR 150 million from water. As to the other component that absorbs net financial position, between 2019 and 2022, the absorption of the net financial position of the group is about EUR 460 million, EUR 470 million per year, and this is basically driven by the performance of investments on RAB. And so that is the biggest factor of absorption. But as I was pointing out at the beginning, in this assumption, there is no room for any strategic measures that the group may adopt, which, if any, will be implemented with the new business plan. As to ATO5 and Gori, I didn't say it during the presentation, but actually ATO5 will be submitted to tariff review -- structural tariff review. So for 2023, the EBITDA of ATO5 should be around EUR 30.5 million. And for Gori, we are assuming about EUR 76 million. And for ASM Terni, it should be EUR 15 million to EUR 16 million. So these are the expectations that we are actually working on for 2023. For the environment business, we confirm -- we expect performance to be confirmed and so EBITDA should also be confirmed for 2023. It's now in excess of EUR 100 million. And so that's the overall range we're assuming. As for the commercial and trading area, we assume it will be pretty much in line with 2022 in view of the risk containment actions since this business cannot satisfy all of demand autonomously, we do have some risk in that, and we are implementing actions to limit it and manage it. When will we have the business plan? Well, as we speak, I cannot give you a specific date. But of course, this is the #1 priority for the new Board, which is going to take office anytime soon. And so I'm sure this will be the top priority in their agenda. So the existing business plan is going to come to an end in 2023. So of course, this will be the top priority.

I have a follow-up session -- question, sorry, on the sensitivity in case of EUR 280 per megawatt hour of energy costs, should we have a CapEx EUR 180 million? What would happen to working capital, I think you should recover at least EUR 100 million.

Well, today, I wouldn't give you a sensitivity figure because there's a lot of question marks on the position of ARERA and their decisions as we go. What I can tell you as far as the group is concerned is that the positioning should not be calculated with a CapEx EUR 180 million. But whether it's connected to the average prices and that have been posted during the period that ARERA going to observe, but -- so we can certainly deliver a lot of assumptions, but we should have better clarity on the scenario we're going to have in the near future. Thank you.

Ms. Angrisani, we have no more questions.

Very well. So thank you very much for connecting. As usual, we'll be available if you need any further information. Thank you, Fabio, Stefano and everyone. Thank you. Bye-bye. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]