Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 15, 2026

NASDAQ US Health Care Life Sciences Tools and Services conference_presentation 32 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#1

Okay. It looks like we're running a couple of minutes behind, so we can quickly get started. Kallum Titchmarsh here from the life science tools and diagnostics team at Morgan Stanley. Really pleased to be joined by the team from Adaptive. We have Chad Robins, Co-Founder and CEO; and Kyle Piskel, CFO. Thank you both for being here. Just before we get started, research disclosures morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures because someone will tell me off if I don't call that one out.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#2

Lots to discuss. Obviously, let's dive into. Maybe we can just start with the state of the union. I know there was also some updates today that you want to hit on out there in the market. So maybe just set the scene. What is exciting you the most run now, Chad?

Chad Robins

executive
#3

Yes. relevant today and kind of unexpected we had a major guideline update in multiple myeloma. And I'm actually going to look at my notes because this came in from my team recently. But -- the NCCN multi myeloma guidelines were updated, but they now include a dedicated page for MRD testing. This is very kind of similar in parallel structure that they do in ALL guidelines, and it really -- what it does is it signals that the panel views MRD as an assessment is essential for management of patients [indiscernible] myeloma but kind of more specifically, the recommendations for MRD, we said that MRD is recommended using an FDA-approved assay such as clonoSEQ or flow cytometry, but this is the first time that clonoSEQ is being specifically named in the NCCN guidelines. And it's actually pretty rare that a test manufacturer is named in guidelines. So we're pretty excited about that. The second thing that's really important is that while 10 to the minus 5 minimum sensitivity is recommended, it's now stated that 10 to the minus as stated as preferred. So this is huge because that's what clonoSEQ does is 10 to the minus 6 in -- and then it gives you all of the different points throughout the patient care continuum that clonoSEQ should be used. But the 1 that I want to highlight specifically is at regular intervals during maintenance and surveillance. And so kind of MRD assessments during surveillance. This is an entirely new thing. So I'll kind of stop there. But multiple points of those guidelines are specifically again of what we've been talking about, what we think is critical for clinicians to use on their patients for clinical decision-making to really guide interventionally to guide treatment decisions. So we couldn't be more thrilled and frankly, surprised of how comprehensive this update was for us.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#4

Very exciting. Yes, how could that evolution look, do you think? Obviously, it's still super early days, but any numbers you could perhaps give around that and how you think the scale-up could look more broadly in the market?

Chad Robins

executive
#5

Yes. I mean it's interesting because as soon as we did this, we did this a few months ago, we had an updated TAM number, increasing the TAM by kind of $800 million. And frankly, we knew when we put it out. And that goes from 2.5 test to 3.5 tons per patient per year. on the overall addressable market. And this, I would say, it's a very minimum kind of reinforces that. But it's also going to going to allow us to dust off some of those assumptions. And a lot of these things work together, kind of -- it also called out peripheral blood for the first time that you could use blood and multimyeloma assessment. This was in the guidelines. And we've been talking about kind of increasing the use of peripheral blood over bone marrow and multimyeloma, all these things kind of work together to talk about more testing per patient, per year. So the net-net is I think this is a nice opportunity to look at further TAM expansion.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#6

It sounds like I might need to revisit my model, but...

Chad Robins

executive
#7

Karina Cal can help you on that.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#8

Maybe just rewinding a little to Q2, strongest you've had in and you obviously raised both the revenue and volume outlook for the year. What do you think the biggest source of that upside was versus your expectations through the first half of the year? And then what gives you confidence that, that momentum can continue? Just let us know what you're seeing out there in the field.

Chad Robins

executive
#9

Yes. Yes. So first, I mean, clinical volumes continue to be great. We've -- we're really excited about what we're seeing and what we continue to see into this quarter. it's been really nice kind of 1 of the components of clinical volume that I think was -- I don't want to say -- I -- really a surprise that we're just really excited about is if you look at the number of clinicians that are clicking on the repeat ordering button and the flat going , I know we'll talk more about it later. That's just -- the [ cereal ] testing has been a really nice kind of source of upside for us. And the compliance rate on that is also extremely high. Other areas of upside, our pharma business is really doing well. I mean if you look at the ODAC decision in 2024 that was codified into draft guidance earlier this year saying that you could use MRD as a primary endpoint in multi myeloma. That's not only had an impact on the myeloma business but that's also bled over to the other -- I said, bled over, no pun intended, in heme malignancies. But it's bled over to the other indications, particularly in ALL and CLL One area that we're kind of monitoring is if you look at our -- related to volumes is kind of our we need that increasing volume -- that increase in volume may put some short-term kind of transitory pressure on ASP. There's a lot of ways we're solving it. We'll talk about that. But overall, I should also say we have a submission into kind of MolDX to increase the number of tests per the episode, which will kind of immediately alleviate that pressure, and we're expecting to hear back relatively soon on that. But overall, the business is in really strong shape, volumes, pharma, et cetera, everything is kind of moving up into the right.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#10

Great. I want the first just hit on the separation that was announced or the intent to separate. You had a strategic review a couple of years ago and you decide to keep the 2 businesses together. So I guess what changed since then and what made now the right time to pursue that separation?

Chad Robins

executive
#11

Yes. Kind of the results of the strategic review a couple of years ago was to have -- to keep the business in-house, but to start having a very disciplined focus on capital allocation towards those businesses and to allow them to mature to the point where it was kind of a natural separation. We feel like that's happened. And MRD for some of the following reasons I just mentioned, we've hit -- we've become the gold standard within the market. It's being used clinically interventionally. It's gotten to a scale and profitability, where we want to have kind of a dedicated focus around leveraging that platform in MRD and more broadly, diagnostics. At the same time, if you look at the immune medicine business, we've developed what I would say is 1 of the most important data sets in immunology, which is kind of the next iteration of alpha fold, which is going to -- which solves protein folding. Now we're solving an in silico model of protein-protein interactions, which is T cell receptor to antigens we can kind of double click on that, but it's the applications of that and what's happened from a macro standpoint within the industry with now because we have got this incredible data set with the advances in AI in the last 2 years since we've done that strategic review, the utility of that to true clinical applications has gone -- has really gone up even to mention 1 of them, if you look at kind of the news coming out of Moderna and Merck and the [ first allied ] cancer vaccine, the application to that is -- so I just think the time is right to allow our MRD business and our Diagnostics business to kind of be able to flourish on its own and at the same time, get a set of really focused, dedicated investors in the tech AI data space to capitalize that business. But we're doing it in such a way that kind of adaptive shareholders are going to own a piece of vendor benefit from kind of whatever comes out of it.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#12

Yes. And as you consider different options for separating the immune medicine business, what's your value there? What does that look like? And I guess how are we spending your time today through that?

Chad Robins

executive
#13

Yes. I mean the first framework I have is what's going to be the best for shareholder value of Adaptive shareholders. And I see that in the context of like 1 decision could be make, okay, you've got this great data set, you can go -- you just go sell the data. That may be, kind of, a "short-term win," but that may not be in the best interest of -- if we're really trying to capitalize on kind of what's going on with AI and the fact that we're sitting on a data set that's proprietary and has significant moats around the business, the -- we may be -- I believe that we're kind of at the start of something that could have durable long term and potentially outsized value for our shareholders. And that's kind of the framework we think about it. As you know, also, we hired some folks on the other side of your business at Morgan Stanley to help us, kind of, evaluate the potential options. We're having some really good conversations around those options. And we've committed by year-end, kind of, outlining what the path forward looks like.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#14

And Kyle, maybe for those investors a bit newer to the story, could you talk through the different financial profiles of the businesses, the MRD business and the immune medicine business, I know obviously nothing formally out there today but just directionally would be helpful.

Kyle Piskel

executive
#15

Yes. I mean, I think starting with the MRD business, that's what we are referring to now as the core business going forward, which is healthy revenue profile with a healthy margin, and it's generating the majority of our revenue growth and has been generating the majority of our revenue growth over the last few years. I think when you step down to the operating expenses, again, most of our investment has been focused in the MRD business. I'd say about 75% of our OpEx is dedicated to Currently, we have a segment in immune medicine, which we've been ring fencing and prudently managing the investment with the opportunity in front of us. And then there's a corporate unallocated piece. I think when you fast forward to post separation, the MRD business will absorb much of that corporate unallocated and those corporate functions. But the scale of the MRD business and the growth profile we're seeing is not going to financially hamper the MRD business. Both the capital we have on the balance sheet and the cash flows that the business is starting to generate will be sufficient enough for the entire adaptive company to start to generate free cash flow in the fourth quarter as well as adjusted EBITDA.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#16

Yes. Makes sense. Maybe just a little bit more on the guide for the rest of the year. when I go through, kind of, unit growth in Q3, Q4, consider all the top line drivers we're aware of and see momentum you had in the first part of the year, seems a little conservative. So is that -- are you seeing anything out there in the market that would imply that unit sequential unit growth take a little step back -- or are you feeling very comfortable with kind of...

Kyle Piskel

executive
#17

I think we're extremely confident in terms of what's happening in the volumes, what we're seeing in the field. the adoption rates are continuing to outpace, kind of, even some of our own internal expectations. And so I think as it relates to the volumes and the sequential comps I'm comfortable with where the Street is at, but I think there's opportunity to, kind of, drive past that. We said 38% to 40%. We're confident in that guide, and I think there's potential upside on that front. And as Chad mentioned, even in the pharma business, we're seeing good momentum in that business, and I think that can be underappreciated in the story. Strong momentum in the pharma business, and I think we'll continue to see that play out in the back half of the year.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#18

Yes. Makes sense. And the mix shift from bone marrow to blood-based testing has been an important unlock for clonoSEQ. I believe -- I think it reached 51% of volumes in Q2. So how has that impacted the size of the market and the realistic number of tests we can be performing per patient?

Chad Robins

executive
#19

Yes. I think that's related to a couple of different topics. Number one, is the ability to test in the blood versus the bone marrow is obviously less invasive, also very specific, not specific and confined only to the community, but the community doesn't really do bone marrow testing. So we also have this whole KOL initiative for the academic medical institutions. You've got KOLs from there going out and teaching the community that you should be using peripheral blood at least as the initial work up and then the MRD, kind of, follow-up testing. So we've had, along with, kind of, serial testing from [ Flatiron, ] there are certain indications that are only blood-based tests, but it's really that conversion. If you now see kind of multi myeloma has now gone up to 30% of testing is now done in the peripheral blood. So it's been increasing across the board, close to 48% in ALLs done in the blood. So it's the ability to serial monitor test and to test in blood to do more in the community, all those are leading to kind of the increased volumes that we're seeing across the board.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#20

And how does that blood-based testing factoring to the recent strength you've seen in the community setting? I guess, how does that also think -- when you think about your, kind of, ambitions from here, how does that play into it?

Chad Robins

executive
#21

Yes, it's been a great driver of growth in the community center, one of many. But if you look at it now, kind of 36% of overall volumes are coming from the community, that's up from 30% a year ago. And I wouldn't attribute that only the blood-based testing, but blood-based testing is a major factor along with kind of the cereal testing button as well. All of this is underpinned by data, like so what we're seeing is that instead like, in relation to, kind of, like, solid tumor, where they're now showing their data is prognostic. -- our data has been prognostic for maybe over a decade, but now we're showing the data sets are coming out and saying, how do you intervene on a patient clinical decision using an MRD test. So it's being used in the transplant setting, it's being used in a maintenance therapy or escalation/deescalation and then in maintenance to take a patient off of therapy. So they're using our test, making a decision on how to treat the patient. And that's what's also been responsible for driving more uptake, both in the academic medical institutions and in the community hospital setting.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#22

And you've invested pretty heavily into the EHR integration and just making that process for the position as seamless as possible. How much friction do you think you've removed from that ordering process? And I guess is there anything else you could do from here to make it even easier?

Chad Robins

executive
#23

Yes. So first of all, it's been -- EMR integration has been amazing, but we consider it necessary but not sufficient, meaning we think it's the first step. But once you are integrated into the system, then those reps have the ability to go, kind of, really optimize within the account, kind of, the ordering profile, the whole workflow, kind of, process to make sure that we're, kind of, getting everything we can out of that on the clinician really knows how to not only use the system, but also clinically knows, kind of, when to treat the patient. One of the things I mentioned about serial testing, but I'll be more specific about it is there's a -- in ongoing EMR flat iron, there is functionality that we built in for repeat ordering where there's a serious -- essentially a radio button that says you can test a patient every 3, 6, 9 or 12 months. Over 70% of clinicians are clicking on 1 of those buttons. And of when they click on that, 70 -- we have 3 cohorts worth of data, 3 quarters. 75% are in compliance. After clicking that button the patient is coming back in and getting the test when they're supposed to get that test. That's -- I mentioned that kind of in your first question in the opening remarks, that's been a source of, kind of, surprise -- upside surprise, we didn't think those numbers would be quite that high. So we're excited about it. We have a team dedicated to working these accounts to really optimize the EMR integrations. Then I'll also, kind of, move over to Epic. In Epic, you can build in kind of the functionality of what's called a standing order. We've done that for our first account, which was Duke. Quarter-over-quarter growth, we saw 57% quarter-over-quarter growth in that 1 institution. Now it's not as easy where you can turn on 150 accounts at 1 time, but going 1 by 1 and getting those dedicated IT resources and the clinical mind share to be able to do that and to kind of map out the pathway as to when they wanted to test patients is something our team is very focused on because of the growth rates we're seeing.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#24

Any color you could give on the average test number per patient today and where that could get to with time. And obviously, you've spoken to EMR integration as being 1 of the potential drivers, but anything else you would perhaps point to?

Chad Robins

executive
#25

Well, clinical data that continues to develop across multiple indications is going to be a huge driver, blood-based testing is a huge driver, the EMR integrations, again, the focus on the community, the pathways that we're putting into their large network practices all those things got to work together. We talked about in the TAM going from 2.5 to 3.5 test per patient per year. Again, I think we got to dust that off. But guideline inclusion certainly is massively helpful to that as well. So it's not -- I mean, we talk about this a lot, and hopefully, this is becoming apparent because you're seeing kind of these different tactical layers going to build on each other. It's not 1 thing. These things are all kind of synergistic and work together in our multipronged strategy really across all of our indications.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#26

Had a question here on multiple myeloma catalysts, but I think we probably [indiscernible]. So just on CLL, what are some of the ways CLL management is being reshaped as a result of guideline changes just around MRD and serial terms?

Chad Robins

executive
#27

Yes. I mean, if you look at the guidelines, it's MRD guided regimen as opposed to fixed duration kind of regimens. So really specifying in the guidelines how to use MRD. It's been a real win for us. And remember, those guidelines came out last year. And what we said was within the community hospital study, kind of takes 9 to 12 months for the uptake of those skylines. And I can happily report over the last kind of 2 quarters, if you look at the growth in CLL, we're starting to see those guidelines really kick in, and we've got some really nice kind of trials around this as well that are starting to go read out.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#28

And then DLBCL and MCL becoming more meaningful contributors to growth -- what needs to happen clinically and commercially for clonoSEQ to succeed in lymphoma, I guess, when we look out the next few years.

Chad Robins

executive
#29

Well, one is guidelines, we need -- we have this kind of land-and-expand strategy within guidelines, and we've gotten guideline in DLBCL, but we need to really expand and really strengthen kind of the wording around those guidelines. And the second is really commercial coverage. So we have Medicare coverage on DLBCL, but very -- we need to get much stronger commercial coverage to get our ASPs up really from a commercial perspective. And the third is really getting on more pharma trials, more data, et cetera. I mean the more data that we have in those indications showing how to use, when to use throughout the patient care continuum, the more. But we're seeing nice growth in both of those. You said DLBCL and MCL, right? And then MCL, we've got really, really nice guideline inclusion. One of the areas that we're seeing in MCL is like you can make a transplant decision based on MRD status, which has been -- which is really, really nice for the patients, right? Because if you can avoid a transplant because you're MRD negative, I mean, obviously, that's a huge benefit.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#30

Amazing. And I guess outside of the indications we've discussed, any that you think investors or the sell-side perhaps don't pay enough attention to further down the line that could be interesting.

Kyle Piskel

executive
#31

I mean I think the opportunity in front of us, the DLBCL is a bit understated. I think what we're seeing with our ability to generate -- use our own clinical data to generate new data and insights into how the assay is being used and the clinical actionability that could come in the future is a massive opportunity for us. We talked about CLL, we talked about myeloma. I think those are things and playbook catalysts that we'll use as we go into these other lower-penetrated indications to continue to see strong growth and strong adoption and it's an area we're going to continue to invest in and get better at data generation and how can we provide more utility, more touch time points for clinicians to use our assay.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#32

And how are you feeling about the competitive mode. Obviously, when you see a market with good growth opportunities and more people want to come into it. But you have the data, the guidelines now. So I guess relative to perhaps a couple of years ago, how are you feeling about that competitive positioning in spite of, obviously, new entrants coming in.

Chad Robins

executive
#33

I feel very strong about our competitive positioning. The 1 area that we have competition entering the market is in DLBCL with Natera's acquisition of Foresight. I said this at the time, I continue now out of the data is playing out and market -- our competition really isn't Natera or Foresight in DLBCL. It's PET scans. I mean MRD is not really being -- we're 2% to 3% penetrated. The -- when Natera entering the market disproportionately benefits clonoSEQ in the short term because it's telling the using a big pulp it to say you should be doing MRD testing in DLBCL, who's in all those doctors' offices with a great reputation and brand with clonoSEQ. So we're -- I'm not -- this isn't to say that Natera is -- they're going to take some market share in DLBCL, but it' very, very, very early on. And I do think in the long term that our technology will win the day. We're looking for something very specific, which is rearranged immune receptor in this case, a rearranged B-cell receptor, that doesn't suit or randomly generate. So our specificity rounds to 100%. It's like 99.99% with an incredibly high sensitivity of 99-plus percent, right, you can't get that data if you're looking at rearranged mutations or mutations and as we will get some false positives. Anyway, that being said, again, have a lot of respect for Benitera. They're going to take some market share. But again, this is -- and I'll just say in the other indications, it's going to be very hard to compete, especially on any disease that's cellular because, again, our specific and sensitivity is so high. We've got a ton of competitive moats around the business. We're on every -- take myeloma run every pharma trial, every KOL were in guidelines specified by name now. That's going to be a tough 1 to compete in.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#34

Indeed. And when I think about the masses of data you're starting to generate in MRD, how are you thinking about leveraging that data to make the test smarter? And how, I guess, internally -- has the team adapted in this era of AI drug discovery to, kind of, shift to, I guess, commercialize it in a more meaningful way.

Chad Robins

executive
#35

Yes, that's a great question. That's -- that's the entire premise of the immune medicine business, and we can maybe talk about that and take that separately. But I do think within the MRD business, we're sitting on a very valuable data asset. Now I'll talk about it in a couple of different contexts. The first is we've invested in real-world data capabilities, I'll give you 2 examples of where we've specifically used it. Number one, is supporting our MolDx submission for increased number of time points for the episode. Number two, we have an ASH abstract on DLBCL that's come directly from our data. So that's really -- I think we're going to continue to make significant investments in the data from that side of things. And then secondly, it's early, but they're certainly ways to monetize the data and potentially look at kind of selling this data to pharma as they look at different use cases, patient stratification for their trials, things of that nature, I think is a potential future business opportunity, again, not to get out of our skis, but you -- ahead of our skis, but you asked the question. I think there's -- I think we're going to be sitting on a treasure trove of the most comprehensive heme MRD data by far out there. And I think that will have significant value. And then the third area, just you mentioned AI broadly, I mean, operationally, we're using AI across many areas of the business, one of a couple of -- particularly in the revenue cycle management for appeals processes, prior authorizations, whether medical necessities, time to cash, things of this nature in our call centers, in our account ops. I think there's a lot that we're doing to just make the business better than, frankly, every business should be doing.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#36

And just, I guess, we have 5 minutes, so maybe shifting on to immune medicine and keeping with AI, how would you describe the value of that immune medicine business in the context of AI when it comes to things like training models, increasing target discovery, efficiency or guiding clinical trials.

Chad Robins

executive
#37

Yes, I'll give you 2 examples. First of all, I think there's -- I'm going to talk -- I think there's immense value in that data as, again, the next kind of big problem in immunology that we're solving, which is moving from [ AlphaFold, ] which was generated on public data. This is proprietary own dataset. Think about like [ AlphaFold ] was owned by 1 company, think about it from that perspective or context, number one, but like in terms of particular applications because I mentioned it earlier, but I'll highlight, kind of, personalized cancer vaccines cell therapy. But even personalized cancer vaccines, there's kind of 3 things that you need to do. You have to be able to deliver the vaccine. You have to be able to pick out the antigens that go in the vaccine contracts and then you've got to be able to kind of monitor kind of the vaccine. Moderna and [ Biotech ] have figured out #1 with mRNA. Number two, what antigens to pick right? We don't have to guess, right? We can tell you kind of what the TCR responses to epitopes or the antigens that go into that vaccine contract. So we can essentially help design for each for each patient of personalized cancer vaccine, here are the antigens that should be put in the construct. Now such -- I don't want to say getting lucky, but now what they're doing is they're putting more and more antigens in hoping that kind of 1 or more of them will elicit immune response. We can be much more efficient and effective and increase the rate of effectiveness on that vaccine by telling it. Well, these are the antigens you should pick. It's really a similar exercise with TCR-based personalized cancer cell therapy. By the way, this is where we started with Genentech, we were doing really well on our side of that program. That did not shut down because they basically had an internal restructuring kind of moved away from the cell therapy, not related to adaptive. It allowed us to essentially get off and running and building this. The other area, and you mentioned it, but I'll highlight something specific is in the area of target discovery and really understanding the root cause and biology of diseases by understanding what the antigen targets are that the T cell receptors are hitting. We anticipate that a publication will be coming out in the next, I'll call it, several months in a very high impact journal that we basically, with our technology we've been able to, kind of, unravel the mystery of what drives type 1 diabetes. It turns out that these HIPs or hybrid insulin proteins are kind of rearranging and these are the targets that your T cell receptors are attacking self tissue with. And this is just the tip of the iceberg, we believe that we think that so many discoveries are going to be coming out of this ability to connect your immune response or your T cell response to clinically relevant antigens and to be able to do this kind of in silico where you can -- if you have the T cell receptor going to reverse engineer or impute what the antigen is, and vice versa. The applications of this are significant across many different disease states. So -- and but I'll say this, in the context of having had thousands of investor meetings who have said, focus -- just focused on the MRD business that I think that even if the decision was -- which isn't going to be that, hey, you shut it down, don't spend any money and focus on the MRD and grow the diagnostics business. That would be a win and what we -- the value we create, which I do believe it could be significant, could be a massive upside from there. And we've committed just to be clear on the time we committed by year-end -- everything won't be done and separated, but we will kind of outline what the path forward is with and working in conjunction with your colleagues on that.

Kallum Titchmarsh

analyst
#38

Amazing. Chad, Kyle, thank you so much.

Chad Robins

executive
#39

Thank you.

Kyle Piskel

executive
#40

Thank you.

Chad Robins

executive
#41

Appreciate it.

Kyle Piskel

executive
#42

Appreciate it.

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