ADF Group Inc. (DRX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the ADF Group Inc. results for the 3-month and 9-month periods ended October 31, 2024, conference call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded on Thursday, December 12, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jean-Francois Boursier, CFO. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to ADF's conference call covering the third quarter and 9 months ended October 31, 2024. I am with Jean Paschini, Chairman of the Board and CEO of ADF who will be available to answer your question at the end of the call. I will first update you on our quarterly and year-to-date results, which were disclosed earlier this morning by press release and then proceed with a quick update about our operations. First, a word of caution. Please note that some of the issues discussed today may include forward-looking statements. These are documented in ADF Group's management report for the third quarter and 9 months ended October 31, 2024, which were filed with SEDAR this morning. Revenues for the quarter ended October 31, 2024, at $80 million or $2.2 million lower than last year. Year-to-date, revenues reached $262.2 million, $19.6 million or 8.1% higher than last year. Given that ADF carries out projects that defer in complexity and duration, upward or downward fluctuation from one quarter to the next may occur. In light of this, revenue growth as well as the order backlog variations must be analyzed over several quarters rather than from one quarter to the next. The positive gross margin level observed in the first 2 quarters continued. We closed the third quarter ended October 31, 2024, with gross margins of 30.4% as a percentage of revenues, up from the 24.4% for the quarter ended October 31, 2023, while adjusted EBITDA reached $24 million compared with $17.8 million for the same quarter ended a year ago. Year-to-date, gross margins as a percentage of revenues at 31.7% is up from the 21.1% margin for the 9-month period ended October 31, 2023, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $72 million, which is 78.1% higher than last year's figure. The improvement in margins is in line with the increase observed in recent quarters and is largely attributable to a better absorption of fixed costs, the continued favorable impact of the investments in automation at ADF's plant in Terrebonne, Quebec and a favorable mix of projects. The mix of products and fabrication continues to be favorable. Again, this quarter, the mark-to-market valuation of our DSUs and PSUs impacted our SG&A expenses. For the quarter, considering the decline in ADF share price, the mark-to-market valuation and related DSUs and PSUs expenses decreased SG&A expenses by $2.9 million when compared to last year. While the year-to-date net increase in stock price increased the year-to-date SG&A expenses by $100,000 when compared with the 9-month SG&A expenses last year. We, therefore, closed our third quarter with net income of $16.4 million or $0.55 per share compared with $11.2 million or $0.34 per share for the corresponding quarter a year ago. Year-to-date, net income reached $47.7 million or $1.53 per share compared with $27.1 million or $0.83 per share for the same period ended October 31, 2023, a 75.9% year-over-year increase. Even considering the $2.8 million share repurchase finalized this past June, which required $48.4 million we closed our third quarter with $65.5 million in cash and cash equivalents which is $6.9 million lower when compared to the January 31, 2024, closing balance, while working capital as at October 31, 2024, reached $1.4 million. Year-to-date, operating cash flow stood at $53.3 million, $7.6 million higher than for the first 9 months of last year. In light of these liquidities and considering our forecasted cash generation, ADF's Board of Directors authorized yesterday an normal course issuer bid. The corporation also announced that the Toronto Stock Exchange had accepted its Notice of Intention to Proceed with a NCIB. Commencing on December 16, 2024, and ending on December 15, 2025, ADF will be authorized to repurchase from time to time, a maximum of just under 1.8 million subordinate voting shares representing approximately 10% of the public float as of December 2, 2024. The subordinate voting shares will be repurchased for cancellation. We believe that the repurchase of subordinate voting shares that we may make from time to time in connection with this NCIB represent the best use of the corporation's funds for both the corporation and its shareholders. Finally, we closed the quarter with $330.3 million in our order backlog. We are obviously very pleased with our results. The increase in adjusted EBITDA and net earnings as well as a strong inflow from our operating activities reflect our past year's investment and operating improvements. Although our backlog level is down from the beginning of the year, we are still seeing very good opportunities in our markets. It is still too early to see what the recent tariffs news will bring, but ADF management has obviously taken notice of this possibility. As we have done in the past, we will assess the situation as it becomes or not more specific and will adapt accordingly. Between our recent automation investment and our U.S.-based Great Falls fabrication complex we do have options to counter headwinds. In light of this, the next few months may see some hesitation in the markets served by ADF. However, given the requirements in public infrastructure, mainly for the U.S. market, we remain optimistic about our growth prospects. Independent of this, we will continue our efforts to pursue our growth and achieve improved results, and we remain focused on continuing building ADF on the know-how of our personnel, our long-standing industry expertise and our state-of-the-art facilities. Thank you for your interest and confidence in ADF. Jean and I will now answer your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Nicholas Cortellucci with Atrium Research.

I guess the first question here, I think the backlog has been in everyone's focus over the last 2 quarters here. So are you guys confident you'll be able to sign some new contracts over the coming months and again, post another year of growth in fiscal 2026? Or what should we be expecting?

First of all, let's not panic with the backlog, okay? We still have $330 million of backlog. So that's good for a few quarters in advance, okay? With the election, the U.S. election, we had a slowdown in incoming contracts. Right now, we're bidding a lot of jobs. We're negotiating a lot of jobs. So I'm very confident that backlog is going to go up in the near future. But it's not a -- how can I say that. I don't see any problems at all with it because the backlog that we have, it's a very good backlog with very good profit margins. So I could have signed jobs that -- you put up the backlog and margins are going to go down instantly. So we have to be smart. That's the way we did. That's the way we're doing our business to make sure to keep a growth because we're going to have a growth this year on top line and bottom line. So next year, it's going to be the same thing, but let's not panic with backlog. Backlog to me, it's very good right now.

Understood. Okay. And then the second question here, I was looking into your guidance history a bit. And I think the last NCIB was in 2016. So maybe give us a bit more rationale on why you guys got that approved. Mainly the valuation, I'd imagine, have you guys at 3x EBITDA, taking advantage of that going into the new year?

Yes. Well, definitely, I think that the -- we believe the recent valuation is a bit low as we...

3x EBITDA. It's a joke.

Yes. So yes, valuation, obviously, we are still in a situation where we do have what we call excess cash. We need some -- we obviously need some cash just to secure jobs and make sure that we're able to get new jobs going because we know that they are weighing a lot on our working capital. But above that we need to be smart about how we use the cash. And I think in light of that, in light of our forecasted inflows, in light of what we see coming from the market in spite of the decline in backlog, we still see a lot of opportunities and a lot of growth. So considering all these factors, we did consider that putting the -- setting up an NCIB would be the best use of our excess cash. We know that there might be some blocks that have been in the market in recent months and quarters. So if people are willing to put blocks and put undue pressure on the stock, well, we will repurchase it.

Great. Okay. And then I guess the last question here, mostly on margin. So about 35% of the backlog is fabrication hours now. So how should we look at margins going into Q4 and fiscal 2025, are these levels still pretty realistic what we saw in Q3?

Yes. Well, for Q4, definitely. And actually, I think the first quarter of next year should also see good margins. It's -- the projects we have in the backlog are favorable from that standpoint. Obviously, as Jean mentioned, we are looking. The bidding pipeline is good. So what will be the margins on the projects we'll sign in the coming weeks and months and quarters that remains to be seen. So at that time, there might be some downward pressure, but it's still even at 25%, it'd still be really good margin. So short term, we don't see a huge decline in margins. And obviously, we'll see what the next few months and quarters bring.

But getting back with the backlog a few weeks ago, I was asked to -- I was -- I had the contract, if I wanted to, to do an Amazon. Amazon, it's USD 150 million. But at the end of the day, there was only 8% profit in there. So we didn't take it. It's a strategy. That's what we want. We want to keep the bottom line very healthy.

Your next question comes from [indiscernible].

Congratulations on the quarter. I have a question about something that was described in Q2. You had an unrealized $35 million possible gain that was being possibly transferred forward into the next fiscal year. And I'm wondering if you could give us some status update on that particular deal at all, whether we're going to see that maybe in Q4 or it's being pushed into the next fiscal year?

Yes. The -- it was actually a delay on the installation portion of one of our projects. So it was $35 million of revenues, not of profit. The good news is since then, we have not only started to ship the material to the site, but we've also started installation. So installation is back on schedule. The problem with delay on the installation phase, as we had explained, is that we cannot recuperate delays very easily, there is a limit to the number of cranes and job you can actually do on site. So that's why we said that volume or that revenue is not plus, it's just really push to the right. So we're obviously working really hard with the client to see how we can try to recuperate because that was an issue not coming from us, coming from site preparation, so really not our responsibility. But obviously, if we can do things to try to catch up, but there is limited. So to answer your question, it is not going to happen by -- you can't look at our Q3 and add $35 million on top of it because of that additional revenue. It's something that will -- it's not going to be added to a quarter. It's just being pushed. So the project in total will finish $35 million later in revenue recognition. So most likely, the $35 million, you will see it sometime next year, but not as an addition to our quarter really just as the rest of -- as normal revenue -- across over the first 3 quarters.

Okay. I appreciate that. My other question is that if you guys needed extra capacity for demand, would you probably be extending your existing plants? Or would you -- are you guys open to expanding into a new office at all, I mean facility?

Thanks for -- as of now, we still have capacity at both plants. So we're not near full capacity. Should we need to add capacity, we do have room at both locations, both at our Terrebonne plant here in Quebec or at our Great Falls plant to extend, to add fabrication base. So we don't need to look for new sites. We do have room to grow from a fabrication standpoint at both locations should we need it.

Okay. And my final question is, I'm trying to get an assessment of the valuation of your company compared to other companies. Is there a #1 competitor you have in the U.S. that you could name? Or are you guys pretty unique in terms of what you do?

Well, the problem we have is that most of the steel fabricators have gone private. So really, we're one of the sole remaining public publicly traded steel fabricator. So it makes -- and that -- I think that for the longest time and still today, probably one of the reasons why people are scratching their head. But what I've seen from a valuation standpoint is people are looking at steel mills, which we're not. They're looking at an engineering firm, which we're not and Canam used to be public. They've gone private. Schuff way back used to be public, they've gone private. So there's not really from at least for the size of the -- or the type of fabrication we do, there's not really any other publicly traded companies doing steel fabrication.

Your next question comes from Scott [indiscernible] Holdings.

Congratulations on hiring more people and with your EBITDA and a successful company. So just a question with all the cash on hand. I'm just trying to figure why you're not providing maybe a special dividend to shareholders. Please don't forget about us, too. Has there been any discussion?

Yes. The well, we -- internally and with our board, we obviously look at all the options. We're not ruling out special dividends, but for the time being, I think between -- as I mentioned, we do need -- especially since we were still pursuing backlog growth, and that does put pressure on the working capital. So we need to keep cash on hand to get projects going between that, between the increase in dividends we did in the second quarter, the NCIB that technically, it's 1.8 million shares. So at $10, it's another $17 million, $18 million of outlay. If the stock goes up, it's a bit more so -- and there are some, as we mentioned, we'll face it. But there are some uncertainties coming in the next few months, just see what happens following the U.S. election. So I think for the time being, we're really confident putting an NCIB up and repurchasing shares. So I think that will have a favorable impact also for our shareholders. If things go accordingly, we continue to grow the backlog, generate free cash flow and fall into additional funding then. We will have other discussion internally with our board, and we'll see. And if at that time, special dividends make sense, then by all means. I'm a shareholder, so I'd be thrilled. But we need to be -- we need to be prudent also. So we're obviously happy to return and really understanding of the patience of our shareholders would like to -- for them to have the best return, I think that by performing as we have done and continue to perform, that will reflect well on the stock, and that will reflect on the valuation. But if and when we get to the point where we reach another net level, we're comfortable with the backlog, we're comfortable with our cash generation strategy then I'm not saying no. But obviously, it needs to be discussed, as I said, internally and with our Board. But for the time being, I think we're happy with what we decided. I think it's still probably the best as I mentioned, the best use of our cash in today's -- considering today's factor in our cash position.

Okay. No I'm comfortable. It's a great company and with having an operation in the U.S. that makes me more comfortable. Is there any new contracts you might announce before end of December, like Eli Lilly or something? Or is it...

There's going to be a new contract that we're going to announce by February.

Okay. Great. This is not really a question, but I mean earnings per share at $1.65 and being a successful company, I mean, we should be somewhere between $16 and $20 share price, I think, here.

The EPS is at $153 million, but yes, valuation.

You go 3x EBITDA, there's a huge problem.

Yes, something is not right. Something doesn't add up. But again, very successful company, and I congratulate you.

Thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Jean-François for closing remarks.

Thank you. Again, we wish to thank you for your interest and support of ADF Group. Jean and I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you all a safe and happy holiday season. Have a nice day.

Happy holidays. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.