AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the AdvanSix Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Kressel, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Debbie. Good morning, and welcome to AdvanSix's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. With me here today are President and CEO, Erin Kane; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Patrick Day. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advansix.com. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that light. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC. This morning, we will review our financial results for the second quarter 2026 and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to AdvanSix's President and CEO, Erin Kane.

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us here today for our quarterly call. As you saw in our press release, our resilient second quarter results reflected a significant sequential improvement in earnings and cash flow amid what remains a highly dynamic macro environment, particularly in plant nutrients. Patrick will dive into the financials in a moment, but I would like to start the discussion today framing our key strategic priorities. To drive through-cycle value creation and support total shareholder return with higher highs and higher lows, we remain focused on commercial execution, operational excellence, and disciplined capital deployment. These are the controllable levers that are critical to anchor our performance. On commercial execution, we continue to focus on winning with customers to profitably fill our plants and shifting product mix towards higher-value applications. Our commercial teams continue to leverage both formula and market-based pricing mechanisms to recover inflationary raw material costs. In the quarter, strong pricing across plant nutrients, chemical intermediates, and nylon solutions offset higher sulfur, benzene, and propylene costs. Importantly, our year-over-year net price over raws impact was neutral in the quarter, which is a notable improvement from the first quarter headwind. On operational excellence, we are well positioned through our integrated asset base, global low-cost position, and continued focus on productivity. Our base capital investments support safe, stable, and sustainable operations. As we discussed on prior calls, our ammonia turnaround was moved to the second quarter and scoped to align with our suppliers' natural gas pipeline inspection. We are pleased to share that we executed to our expectations. Lastly, we are focused on generating meaningful operating cash flow to support disciplined capital deployment. From a working capital perspective, our cash conversion cycle benchmarks in the top quartile among peers. Our significant runway of opportunity on 45Q carbon capture tax credits also supports future cash generation. As we allocate capital, our discretionary organic investments target greater than 20% returns. Our sustained growth program is generating returns in excess of 30%, and we remain on track to deliver product mix optimization with 75% ammonium sulfate granular conversion. This is an important milestone as we continue to align our production output with growing demand for sulfur nutrition. We will continue to ensure a well-managed balance sheet that will afford the investments for performance and growth. We continue to expect improved earnings and cash flow in the second half of the year compared to the first half as we build momentum into 2027. While the near-term market environment has been mixed, our durable competitive advantage, portfolio resiliency across a diverse set of end markets, and our long-term positioning for growth underpin what we believe is a compelling investment thesis for AdvanSix. Let's turn to Slide 4. Based on our expectations coming out of the first quarter earnings call, a number of items played out as anticipated. Notably, the sequential improvement in net pricing over rising raw material costs was a primary driver of our earnings improvement. Both Nylon Solutions and Chemical Intermediates performed at or better than our expectations with strong commercial performance and mix optimization supporting margins. Plant Nutrient volume, however, was lower than anticipated. The spring planting season saw a significant increase in grower input costs, while crop and grain prices remained steady at lower levels. This unfavorably impacted farmer profitability and resulted in a reduction of fertilizer consumption overall. Despite these challenges, we ended the full fertilizer year at near-record volume performance for domestic granular ammonium sulfate. Lastly, our utilization rates were lower on operational performance, including the impact of our ammonia plant turnaround. With that, I'll turn it to Patrick to discuss the financials.

Thanks, Erin. I'm now on Slide 5 to discuss our results for the quarter. Sales of $421 million increased approximately 3% versus the prior year, comprised of 18% favorable pricing, partially offset by a 15% decline in volume. Raw material pass-through pricing was up 13%, following a net cost increase in benzene and propylene. Market-based pricing improved 5%, primarily driven by an increase in plant nutrients, reflecting higher nitrogen pricing amid increased sulfur input costs. Lower sales volume was primarily driven by more challenging agricultural fundamentals, including farmer economics, which resulted in a reduction of in-season fertilizer purchases. Adjusted EBITDA was $32 million, down $24 million from last year. I will highlight the key year-over-year variances in a moment. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.19 declined $1.05 versus the prior year. The higher effective tax rate compared to last year was driven primarily by 45Q carbon capture tax credits claimed in the prior year period and changes in taxable income. We expect the full year 2026 effective tax rate to be in the range of 10% to 15% prior to any additional 45Q claims. On a sequential basis compared to the first quarter, earnings and cash flow improved significantly with tailwinds across the portfolio from net favorable pricing over raw material input costs. So overall, a testament to the commercial performance in the first half of this year. Now let's turn to Slide 6. In the quarter, we drove pricing improvement across the portfolio on both a year-over-year and sequential basis. This was supported by higher raw material pass-through pricing as well as an increase in market-based pricing. The primary driver of lower volume, both year-over-year and sequentially was plant nutrients due to the in-season dynamics we observed. To a lesser extent, we saw modestly lower volumes quarter-over-quarter in Nylon Solutions and Chemical Intermediates. Across Nylon Solutions, resin volumes increased year-over-year on improved operational performance, while caprolactam volumes moderated in a soft demand environment for carpet applications. We saw a reduction overall in export volume sequentially in the second quarter. A more constrained production environment, including the planned turnaround activities, shifted our focus to serving our North American customers. Consistent with our ongoing operating approach, we evaluate the optimal product and geographic mix to ensure the best economic outcome for the integrated enterprise. Let's turn to Slide 7. Here, we highlight the key drivers of our second quarter adjusted EBITDA performance year-over-year. We completely offset the significant raw material cost increase in the quarter through commercial execution and pricing actions. We thought it was important to highlight in this environment, the magnitude of the input cost inflation that we were able to offset through pricing in the quarter. As you can see on the right side of this slide, raw material costs were a headwind of $72 million in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis. This was primarily driven by rising benzene and sulfur prices. We were able to fully recoup that impact through strong commercial execution with favorable market and pass-through pricing across the portfolio. On a sequential basis, while we incurred a $10 million headwind in 1Q, we saw that flip to a $39 million tailwind in 2Q. This was also supported by strong pricing in each business line, more than offsetting rising benzene, sulfur, and propylene costs. Natural gas costs were seasonally lower in the second quarter as compared to the first, which is typical for our business. Now back to the bridge on the left side of the chart. Volume represented a $17 million unfavorable impact, primarily driven by lower sales in plant nutrients in the face of more challenging agricultural fundamentals, including farmer economics. Operationally, we saw an approximately $4 million unfavorable impact from the timing of planned plant turnarounds. Lastly, all other items netted to a $3 million headwind with the impact of reduced production output, partially offset by lower SG&A as planned. Let's turn to Slide 8. On the left side of the page, we've shown our first half free cash flow generation for 2025 and 2026. Our year-to-date performance is largely tracking to last year when taking into account approximately $26 million of insurance proceeds in the prior year period. Working capital, although improved year-over-year, has been a seasonal use of cash in the first half as expected. The primary driver of the improvement was disciplined inventory management. As we've shared previously, there is nonlinearity in our cash flow on a quarterly basis. As we look forward into the second half, we anticipate significant sequential improvement, notably as a result of our reduced CapEx run rate, working capital tailwinds, including our fourth quarter prebuy program in plant nutrients, timing of annual payments paid in the first half, and 45Q cash tax credits. Let me turn the call back to Erin.

Thanks, Patrick. With the moving parts in our end markets, let's first take a deeper dive into what we're seeing in the Plant Nutrients market and specifically sulfur input costs, which have been key drivers of our first half performance. We realized lower in-season plant nutrient sales as a result of reduced grower application of nutrients. Ammonium sulfate demand softened significantly in 2Q after strong early season purchases as farmers prioritize applying nitrogen in the peak of the season above all nutrients, most notably ammonia. As the season progressed, growers applied fertilizer, including ammonium sulfate based on purchases and inventory that was in the channel. Despite weaker in-season sales, we still achieved one of our strongest fertilizer year performances in terms of total domestic granular volume. It is clear that we structurally improved our output and mix supported by our sustained growth program. From an input perspective, sulfur costs have moved up to record highs over the course of the last year. It is evident that elevated sulfur prices, amplified by the conflict in the Middle East, created demand destruction across the industry, most notably in phosphates, which represent approximately 50% of sulfur demand. The Tampa sulfur market closed at another record of $705 per long ton in the third quarter, following $655 per long ton in the second. Third-party industry experts are forecasting a roughly $200 decline in sulfur prices entering 2027, which will be a tailwind for the next planting season amid what is likely tighter domestic ammonium sulfate supply. As a sensitivity for impact to AdvanSix, every $100 per long ton change in sulfur raw material price equals an approximately $35 million cost impact on an annual basis. In this environment, we have flexed optionality to incrementally increase ammonia sales availability based on market dynamics across the entire value chain. Our plan for the full year 2026 is expected to be up 30% on ammonia sales volume compared to 2025, which was a prior record year. This reflects our ongoing debottlenecking efforts and the benefit of targeted replacement and maintenance capital investments over time. With our positive experience securing our existing USDA grant in support of our SUSTAIN program, we're now planning to apply for the new FIELD grant to expand our ammonia capacity and increase nitrogen nutrition availability for domestic farmers. In addition, our previously announced DEF project is progressing through its evaluation phases as planned and if moved forward would unlock more value of our integrated ammonia platform. Let's turn to Slide 10 to highlight what we're seeing across the rest of the portfolio. Moving beyond ag to our key nylon end markets across building construction, engineering plastics, and packaging, North American demand has not materially changed. Global pricing has moved up with higher input costs, while raw material shortages, logistics constraints, and lower operating rates in China have tightened supply. Similar to nylon, end market demand across chemical intermediates into construction, coatings, and downstream industrials has been broadly stable. Phenol demand remains soft overall, driving lower global operating rates, coupled with reduced acetone imports into the U.S., all of which are supporting tighter ammonia -- acetone supply and demand dynamics. Let's move to Slide 11. Looking ahead, we have line of sight to several drivers in place to support second half sequential EBITDA and cash flow improvement. On earnings, we expect benefits from the absence of the first quarter winter storm impact and the completion of our larger planned turnaround in the second quarter. We continue to target approximately $10 million savings exiting 2026 from our multiyear non-manpower fixed cost reduction program. In Nylon Solutions, we expect steady volume performance and continued focus on price relative expansion through disciplined commercial execution and mix optimization. In Chemical Intermediates, we continue to expect cycle average performance for acetone spreads, while our other products in the portfolio are performing to expectations. In Plant Nutrients at this point in the year, we've historically realized a $10 million to $15 million sequential headwind on earnings due to the reset of the North American fertilizer year beginning with the fall fill program. This year, we expect the impact to be greater given pricing dynamics amid higher sulfur input costs that have impacted the fill program outcomes. Due to the softer late season demand as discussed, there was fertilizer inventory left in the channel, which prompted competitive intensity as players, including traders of imported and other domestic volume, sought to liquidate their positions without regard to producer economics. While this has near-term impact, we remain focused on serving our customers with a strong sulfur nutrition value proposition we have long built through sound agronomic research and grower yield benefits. Moving to cash. There are several tailwinds, which Patrick highlighted, supporting our stronger second half performance. Let's turn to Slide 12 before moving to Q&A. We remain confident in the through-cycle value creation opportunity at AdvanSix. Our unique combination of assets and business model are core to our durable competitive advantage and long-term positioning. Key to our strategy is a focus on the levers we control, commercial execution, operational excellence, cash generation and disciplined capital deployment. As we move through the remainder of 2026 and navigate the current industry environment, we are well positioned to support our strategic priorities as a U.S.-based integrated manufacturer aligned to domestic supply chains and energy markets, as well as a diverse set of end market applications. We believe the actions we're taking and strategic priorities ahead support AdvanSix to deliver improved performance and sustainable long-term value. With that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.

Thanks, Erin. Debbie, can you please open the line for questions?

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Pete Osterland with Truist Securities.

So just wanted to start on the comment on running Hopewell at lower rates than you expected. Was this a market-based decision driven by ammonium sulfate demand? Or were there any operational delays coming out of the turnaround? And then also, maybe if you could size just how far below your optimal rates you're running and how much line of sight you have into when conditions would be supportive of raising operating rates?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Pete. Certainly, in the quarter, we would have had Hopewell running around mid-70s, consistent with other turnaround quarters. So a large majority there would have been really being constrained through our ammonia production, which has implications on the full value chain. As we proceed forward, obviously, we're focused on, as we've shared, running the assets to the demand. So as you've seen, certainly, our Chesterfield operations are improving year-over-year in operational performance, that's important there. And then obviously, we're continuing to evaluate really the economics given the environment on both how we think about monetizing ammonia and sulfuric acid in the environment for ammonium sulfate. But we have to take the full enterprise chain all the way through to the mix to make those best decisions. So it's kind of an ongoing opportunity set for us to optimize.

Okay. Understood. And then a lot of moving parts with pricing versus raw materials. But just following the full offset of pricing versus raws in the second quarter, do you have an estimate or a range you could share of what you expect the net impact would look like in the third quarter just based on what you can see right now?

Yes. Certainly, as we shared, I can start and then Patrick can jump in as well. Given where sulfur has landed, I think that's going to be the largest headwind vis-a-vis certainly where ammonium sulfate pricing has reset, right, in the fall fill program. Benzene and propylene are going to move with oil, right? And certainly, we have moving parts there based on really how the Middle East is impacting that on a regular basis. So when you think about the pricing mechanisms, the formula and pass-through definitely play more to benzene being passed through in the formulas mechanistically. So it's really going to be how the sulfur plays out relative to the price performance.

Yes. I think we highlighted in our comments, the $10 million to $15 million year-over-year headwind. That's currently the range we're working with and what we expect.

Okay. Very helpful. So I just wanted to finish with a couple of questions on some of the cash tailwinds you're expecting in the second half. So just first on the ammonium sulfate prebuy advances with some of the challenges around farmer economics and fertilizer demand that you called out, do you expect the prebuy in the second half to be weaker than normal? And I guess, could you size what is normal? And what are your expectations for how that is shaping up this year?

Yes. At this point, we would anticipate that it's a bit -- on one hand, a little too early to tell, right? We're just getting through the fall fill. Obviously, this is something that we generally see as steady demand every winter. At this point, with Nutrition, we're really kind of watching now the fundamentals and the guideposts, right? So we're watching the current crop demand -- sorry, crop performance. If you think about -- we'll get more from the USDA this week. You've got certainly implications now that the corn rating has declined since mid-July, a little bit more in line with '22 and '23 crops in the last 2 years. So how that plays into yield estimates, how that will play into future corn prices, obviously, a reset in profitability. And so we would -- as we sit here today, there's no reason to think that there wouldn't be a positive view relative to that prebuy program setting up for next spring. You could see still a constructive setup, right, when you kind of look forward relative to where we sit today and head forward into the spring. We would see -- also see that ammonium sulfate will probably be a bit tighter as well as we move forward. As we sit here today, the input costs are not supporting, we believe, and what the feedback is from the industry that the marginal producer in the U.S. is not running. And so again, these are the things that we're going to continue to look at as we progress through Q3, Q4 and work to set up a constructive view as we get to spring.

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, on the reductions in CapEx for the second half. When you talk about risk-based prioritization, are these mainly deferrals of spending that at some point in the future, you have to catch up on? And what kind of activities are we talking about? Just maybe some more color around that would be helpful.

Sure. When you think about sort of historical approaches, in many cases, to repair and maintenance as well as just capital intensity on that same view. A lot of the techniques are time-based, right? A piece of equipment goes in with an expected life. The reality is in today's views, you can use better data, have quantitative risk assessments. And so when we talk about risk-based, it's using better indications on when we should be tackling the repair and maintenance type capital in the assets going forward based on how we need them to run to meet demand. So I wouldn't think about it as a deferral where there will be a catch-up, but rather an overall reslating or reprioritization, right, using data heuristics and new just ways to prioritize where we spend, when we spend it across the enterprise. And so the back half just reflects -- I mean, obviously, you've got a time lag here, right, for our actions to take place relative to the cash flow. So certainly, the first half heavier, right, as we exited 2025 and then putting this into place as we roll forward.