Aedas Homes, S.A. (AEDAS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. I'm Rafael Cruz from Aedas Homes' Investor Relations department. On behalf of the company, I'd like to thank you for attending this call on our fiscal year results, which run from April 2024 to March 2025. This presentation has been published on both the regulators and Aedas Homes' website. Today's session will be covered by David Martínez, CEO; Maria Jose Leal, CFO; and Tamara Marañón, Director of Capital Markets. Afterwards, we will move to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Before we get started, let me remind you that this event is being recorded, and it will be available for playback on our website. I'd also invite you to review the documents legal disclaimer. And now I will hand things over to David. David, the floor is yours.

Thanks, Rafa. Thank you for joining us today for our full year 2024 webcast. Let me start off by saying that Aedas Homes has delivered an outstanding operating performance this past year, bringing in over EUR 1.1 billion in revenue. Before we get into the details, I'd like to share 4 key drivers of this success.  First, the Spanish economy continues to enjoy a very positive outlook. And with the structural imbalance between supply and demand and benign monetary environment, growth prospects for our sectors have been strengthened. Here at Aedas, we have made the most of these tailwinds and have had a record-setting year for forward sales with over 3,200 units sold, giving us an order book at year-end valued at nearly EUR 1.7 billion.  Third, we continue to lead the sector in terms of delivery volumes and revenue with over 5,200 units delivered. And for the second year running, have generated revenue over EUR 1.1 billion. And fourth, the diversification and growth of our platform, which has made Aedas the go-to industrial partner in Spain. Now I'd like to recap how we have consolidated and diversified the platform in the past year. And then Tamara and Maria Jose will take you through the operating activity and financial results in greater detail. Thanks to our team's ability to originate attractive opportunities. This past year, we were able to double our annual investment, committing to a total new volume of EUR 450 million overall, including the pending CapEx for these investments. These investments volume comprises our entry into the flex living space through 3 co-investments, new concessions for affordable housing in Madrid, organic investment via one-off acquisitions like every year, the acquisition of Grupo Priesa and the acquisition of a landbank from Habitat.  All in all, we added over 7,400 units to our landbank under management with a very strong focus on Madrid. And 85% of this newly invested land is ready to build, meaning that it is highly liquid. Keeping with our strategy of optimizing the use of capital on those new investments, which are 100% owned by Aedas and have a ready-to-build cost of EUR 343 million, we have been able to defer EUR 170 million in payments, which correspond to acquisition price, pending CapEx and transactions not yet formalized. Furthermore, we have also deferred EUR 143 million in pending payments for investments in previous years.  Now let's take a look at the deals we closed to manage developments for third parties. This past year, we cemented our reputation as the go-to industrial partner in Spain by boosting our affordable housing and new living solutions offer and exporting our leading build-to-sell practice across the portfolio to our joint ventures and management-only contracts. This activity brought the developments we managed for third parties to a new high at EUR 1.1 billion of new investments under management. This represents around 3,400 units, and we expect to generate over EUR 40 million in fees from our management services for these units from fiscal year 2025 onwards.  Of the nearly 4,000 active units in our landbank under management, 80% are on the market and around 7,500 are under construction, meaning the company is well-positioned in terms of converting these assets into cash in the coming years. Our push to scale up and diversify over the past year means that at the end of March, our total landbank under management stood at 20,200 units with an expected attributable gross development value of EUR 6.8 billion. 77% of this managed landbank is 100% owned by Aedas, while the remainder is in co-investment vehicles and management-only contracts, and 81% of the landbank is for our core build-to-sell product. These volumes will cover our needs to maintain annual revenues at the EUR 1 billion level while generating a stream of fees to continue to improving our return on equity. Now I will hand things over to Tamara to take us through our operating performance and then Maria Jose for financial results.

Thank you, David. Our 2024 fiscal year was exceptional in terms of sales with absorption levels of an upward trend and surpassing the 7% threshold, we recorded a 56% increase in the value of BTS transactions. This means that the company surpassed the EUR 1.4 billion mark, thanks to the forward sale of 3,224 BTS units at an ASP of EUR 436,000, up 5% over last year, focused on the primary residence market and our Spanish customer base.  This past year, we not only hit a milestone in our net annual sales volume, but also in the number of units we handed over to customers and institutional clients. Excluding the 2,060 affordable units delivered under Plan Villa 1, given that there was no direct economic exposure in delivering those units, the company once again demonstrated its strong operational capacity with a 7% increase in total deliveries, handing over 3,151 units for a total value of EUR 1.1 billion.  Of this total, over EUR 1 billion corresponds to the delivery of 3,070 units from our residential development business line, while the remaining EUR 49 million in value comes from the delivery of the first 81 units from co-investment vehicles formalized in fiscal year 2023. Product mix drove the 4% increase in the ASP of deliveries as 511 units from BTR projects were delivered during the year. Excluding these BTR deliveries, ASP will have improved by 6%, with those deliveries concentrated in the primary residence segment delivered to financially solving customers with low financing needs.  The outcome of these sales and deliveries activity, coupled with the impact of Grupo Priesa corporate transaction is a robust order book value at EUR 1.66 billion, 100% comprised of BTS product at an ASP of EUR 444,000 with a significant weight of projects in our East and Costa del Sol regional branches. This order book, of which 74% is under private contract, 8% points above last year, has shown great resilience with the private contract cancellation rate remaining below 1%.  The company has a strong visibility over its revenue goals in the coming years, 100% of the residential development project scheduled for delivery over the next 2 years, which are expected to generate EUR 1 billion annually are already on the market. Sales and marketing on this project are going very well, with delivery coverage levels of 76% for fiscal year 2025 deliveries and 39% for fiscal year 2026 deliveries, well above those coverage ratios at the end of last year. This project also benefits from optimal construction progress as we have already broken ground on 80% of our fiscal year 2026 deliveries, which is a 6-percentage point improvement over last year. In addition to these coverage levels, let me point out that on the co-investment front for BTS, we expect to deliver product value at over EUR 630 million over the next 2 years.  As part of our corporate responsibility strategy and following the successful rollout of our first ESG strategic plan, we launched our second ESG strategic plan in April 2024, covering the period '24 to '26. This new plan, now in its second year, maintains the core lines of action of the previous plan while incorporating 3 additional actions and also adding a new strategic action line, the circular economy, which we consider material and key to achieving our sustainability goals. During the past fiscal year, we made significant progress on the eco sustainability front, notably in, first, improving energy efficiency with 71% of our completed projects receiving an AA energy performance certificate versus 42% 3 years ago. Second, calculating Scope 3 emissions for the first time; and three, defining and implementing our decarbonization road map. And on the social front, our commitment to facilitating access to affordable housing has achieved major successes, not only through the unscheduled delivery of the first 2,060 units under Plan VIVE I, but also by intensifying our efforts in this area, having broken ground on 944 additional units designated for affordable rental under our concession model and acquiring land zone for development of over 900 affordable units. Now I'll hand things over to María Jose, who will take us through the evolution of our key financial metrics.

Thank you, Tamara. First, I'd like to highlight that this is the second consecutive year in which we generated revenues exceeding EUR 1 billion, reaching a total of EUR 1.156 billion this past year. Of this amount, EUR 1.028 billion came from revenue generated through home deliveries. Land sales contributed EUR 115 million. Of this, EUR 82 million corresponds to sales linked to co-investment transactions with third parties. Lastly, our service activity generated EUR 13 million, which represents a 40% increase over the previous year. As for gross margin, we saw a 2% decrease, mainly due to the increase in volume of build-to-rent deliveries as well as land sales to co-investment vehicles, which were plots acquired within the last 18 months.  The EBITDA margin decreased by 5%, driven by the greater volume of second home deliveries, which carry higher sales commissions than primary residences, and by the integration of Grupo Priesa, which added $4.4 million in unbudgeted costs, including severance payments. On a more positive note, the net profit benefited from the increased revenue from co-investment projects and in particular, from the impact of the Priesa acquisition as the value assigned to acquired assets exceeded the price paid by $52 million. Let's now break down the performance of each business line.  Starting with our build-to-sell line, revenue growth reflects the strong sales momentum that David and Tamara just described. Revenue from deliveries rose by 7%, of which 2% came from a higher ASP. This increase aligns with both our investment strategy and our price optimization strategy. In terms of margins, as anticipated, build-to-sell products completed during the fiscal year delivered a margin of 24.6%, while units completed in previous years and delivered this past year posted a 21.3% margin.  Looking ahead, we expect the gross development margin for build-to-sell to exceed 25% in 2025. Also worth noting is the rise in ASP across our entire build-to-serve portfolio on the market, reflecting our target customer profile and pricing optimization strategy. In the build-to-rent segment, we delivered 3 projects this year with a development margin close to 18%, which showcases the quality of these developments. Additionally, Aedas Homes was awarded 3 new projects under the Plan VIVE III initiative aimed at delivering affordable rental housing, a further demonstration of our commitment to affordable housing in line with our participation on Plan VIVE I.  Moving on to our real estate services line. I'd like to highlight the excellent performance with revenue growing by 40.2% year-on-year. During the year, we signed a new co-investment agreement, closed 2 new flex living deals, incorporated management contracts from Grupo Priesa, and signed a new management-only agreement that is without an equity stake. To support this growth, we reinforced our services team, especially in flex living and concessions, which naturally impacted gross margin. In 2025, we expect another significant increase in revenue from this business line, which will continue to drive improvements in return on equity in line with our strategic goals.  Regarding land sales, I'd like to distinguish between natural landbank rotation and sales to co-investment vehicles. In line with our land bank rotation strategy, we sold plots worth EUR 32 million with a gross margin of EUR 4.8 million, improving our operating cash flow. And on the co-investment side, we finalized a new agreement selling plots valued at EUR 82 million. It's important to note that this land was very recently acquired. Now let's take a look at the balance sheet.  I'd like to focus on 4 key aspects: inventories, cash, long-term investments in associates, and debt. First, inventories remained stable compared to last year despite higher delivery volumes, demonstrating our firm commitment to investment throughout the year. Second, available cash flow improved by $52 million, driven both by revenue growth and by optimized investment structures. On the asset side, we saw a rise in the value of our equity stakes, reflecting the new co-investments in alternative lines like flex living and concessions and our traditional build-to-sell line.  Finally, I'd like to highlight the stability and structure of our debt, which I'll explain further in a moment. Regarding our debt profile, 45% remains at fixed rates. In April 2024, we amortized $70 million of the green bond we issued in 2021, bringing the outstanding principal down to $255 million. The favorable interest rate environment allowed us to reduce our average cost of debt to 4.4% compared to 4.8% last year. We faced $103 million in maturities this year and $255 million in green bond maturities next year. As shown in the chart on the right, our available liquidity at year-end nearly covers maturities for the next 2 years. On cash generation, I'd like to emphasize that our free cash flow reached nearly EUR 175 million, allowing us to reduce net financial debt by EUR 44 million. This was achieved by maintaining inventory levels and increasing the value of our equity stakes. We closed out the year with moderate leverage, particularly when considering the high revenue visibility we have for the coming 2 years. Finally, I want to share the results of the landbank valuation as of year-end. Our 2024 investment strategy is reflected in the increased weight in the gross development product of nonactive units, up by 84%, tied to investments in the Habitat landbank, primarily located in Madrid and with a longer maturity period. Regarding gross asset value and considering only the landbank that is 100% owned by Aedas Homes, the value of these assets reached almost EUR 1.9 billion, including EUR 425 million in unrealized capital gains. On the other hand, the valuation of land held by our associates reached EUR 688 million. This growth contributed to an increase in the net asset value per share to EUR 33.89. And now I'll hand it back to David for his messages on shareholder remuneration and closing remarks.

Thanks. On the back of this robust set of results that Maria Jose has just shared with us and given the strong visibility the company has over future revenues, the Aedas Homes Board of Directors has approved a new more attractive shareholder remuneration policy. According to this policy, the company will distribute a minimum dividend of 50% of the attributable net income and then have the possibility of distributing additional dividends up to a net loan-to-value of 25%. In line with this new policy, at the upcoming Annual General Meeting in July, the Aedas Homes Board of Directors plans to propose the distribution of a dividend of EUR 3.15 per share with the following breakdown: EUR 2.58 per share against the fiscal year 2024 profit and EUR 0.57 per share against the share premium account. This dividend payment of EUR 136 million, if approved, will take place post AGM and once payout occurs. Total shareholders' remuneration distributed via dividends since July 2021 will have surpassed EUR 580 million. Well, to close, I'd like to share 4 key messages with you. First, after a record-breaking sales performance, Aedas' consolidated order book is valued at nearly EUR 1.7 billion, and the company has unparalleled visibility of the revenue goals for this year and next. Second, thanks to the acceleration in deliveries this year and an improved cash position, the company continues to enjoy privileged financial stability. Our focus, as always, is on maintaining a stable capital structure while improving cash flow and return on equity, which is now above 15%. Third, on the back of an outstanding year for investment and asset diversification, the Aedas platform is fully dimensioned and consolidated. Our success and leadership of the sector is driven by a solid business strategy that we have honed over the years, fundamentally focused on location, quality and target market, as well as the more recent diversification of our platform to focus on services for third parties and affordable housing and flex living products. And finally, the strength of our landbank under management and the fact that it is 70% active means Aedas manages the largest active residential portfolio in Spain with 80% of these units on the market and over 7,500 units under construction. The past year has been an extraordinary period for the company. And as of today, the Aedas platform is uniquely positioned to capture opportunities in the Spanish residential market. This means that our outlook on growth and our capacity to continue generating significant value for our shareholders in the future is very positive. The credit for this success goes to our talented and dedicated team of professionals. We have come a long way together in a short period of time. Just 9 years ago, we were a small group of people with a vision of producing homes in a different way. Today, the Aedas platform has already delivered 17,000-plus homes, generated 41,000 jobs, shape the transformation of the sector and become the leading residential development platform, a benchmark in Spain. While I feel very proud of everything we've achieved and especially these record results, what I am proudest of is leading this committed team and having the -- [Audio Gap]

Okay. Now the Aedas management team will be happy to take your questions. Operator, please go ahead.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Fernando Bril from Alantra.

I have a couple of questions, please. First on BTS margins. Could you please give us a split between the land cost and the construction cost on your cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales? And also, how this has evolved in the past few years? And then also on margins, so you've shown improving trends in BTS margins along fiscal year '24. How do you expect margins to behave in this fiscal year in 2025? And last is on the land. So how do you see the land market? I mean, scarcity remains very high. So, I don't know if you are also foreseeing certain inflation in the land market. Thank you.

Thank you, Fernando. I will cover your questions, if that's okay. Regarding the weight of the components of cost of goods sold over the last 2 years, I can confirm that what has impacted 2024 margins, as we had already anticipated is mostly the hard cost and increase on hard costs we saw over 2021, '22. In 2023, our HPA pass-through to our customers was not as strong as it's been in 2024. And therefore, this has affected the '24 margin. In any case, it's been above the expectation we had at the beginning of the fiscal year where we anticipated gross margin for product completed this year around 24%. Regarding our guidance for 2025 margin, where you know we have already a very strong presales number. It's expected to be around 25%. I will let David comment on the land market.

Fernando, well, regarding the land market, as you know, we are starting to see some shortage of ready-to-build land in some areas. But one of the strengths of Aedas, it's the capacity and the ability to source land from its regional branches. Last year was a clear example of this. And we front-loaded our landbank with enough ready-to-build plots till -- which will allow us to keep securing revenues over EUR 1 billion until fiscal year 2029 included.  So, this gives us an excellent position to keep having a dynamic approach to land investing and exploring other areas. This year, we have a new operation in Andorra. We have operations in Almería. We're exploring other operations in other regions, not traditional areas of the company. So, on one side, it's true that in some of the spots, the ready-to-build land market is having scarcity, but there are some other areas and the configuration of the company will allow us to keep sourcing the land we need to maintain these revenue levels in the long-term.

Our next question comes from the line of Ignacio Romero from Banco Sabadell.

I have 2 technical questions. The first one is on Page 26 of the presentation. I see that GDV is going up 23%, but gross asset value is basically flat. So, is that because of the co-investments that are included in the GDV and not in the gross asset value figure? And I'll ask the second question if you want later.

Yes. Thank you, Ignacio. If I understood your question correctly, regarding the evolution of NAV, considering that, as you mentioned, gross asset value is flattish versus last year. Yes, the increase relates to 2 factors, as you mentioned. One is our percentage of stake on associates. The second one is as well our cash flow or our cash available at hand and net debt position at the close of the fiscal year. That is explaining the improvement in NAV per share.

But I was referring to the gross development value on Page 26 of the presentation on the top of the chart. I see gross development value going up 23%, but GAV only goes up basically flat.

Sure, yes. On gross development value, as you mentioned as well, yes, we are including the gross development value of the associates over which we have a participation. And in GAV we are not reflecting the total valuation of those assets, of those stakes. You can see in the comments on the right, we are providing the value or the GAV of those co-investments without multiplying that through our stake.

Very clear. And my second question is related to the contribution of the co-investments going forward. Could you please give us a guidance? I know you mentioned something in the presentation before, but I couldn't hear it well. I just would like to know what you expect profit and loss in terms of income from these co-investments in the next few years.

Ignacio, this is Tamara. So, as you can see in the presentation, actually in Page 14, where we are talking about the coverage ratios, we are seeing the total amount of value of those units that we are expected to deliver over the next 2 years, and we are expecting to deliver more than EUR 630 million. So obviously, this will revert into dividends in our income statement and cash flow. And from the management point of view, in terms of fees, we are expecting to generate with the new co-investment signed throughout this year, more than EUR 40 million, and this is throughout a period of approximately 4 to 5 years.

Our next question comes from the line of Ignacio Domínguez from JB Capital.

I have 3 on my side if I can go one by one. So firstly, on the recent news, the press reported on Castlelake's potential exit. Could you provide any updates on how the process is going?

Hello, Ignacio. Well, as you know, we are a trending topic today. But as you can understand, this is something I can't comment on.

Moving to the next one. My second question is on full year '25 guidance. What can we expect in terms of revenues and EBITDA?

Ignacio, as you know, we usually don't provide guidance on full EBITDA, but we do provide guidance on margins on build-to-sell, which is 90% probably of the business. For next year, you know that we don't have scheduled any build-to-rent deliveries because we just have deliveries for 2026. And on that front, our expectation is to be again above EUR 1 billion in revenues. I have already provided guidance on gross development margin for build-to-sell.

And finally, my last question concerns the bond refinancing. How do you see the market? And what terms do you anticipate for a potential refinancing?

Yes. On the refinancing front, we are working on different paths. And I have to say that the Capital Markets is still strong. There was some uncertainty over the month of April, but it's gotten back to recent transactions, and the pricing and what we see on the market is still within expectations. So, it's a strong market. But there is other avenues we can pursue.

Okay. We can now take questions coming from the webcast platform. So, the first question comes from Mariana Santander. Most of your portfolio is in what we could consider Tier 1 regions. Could you please share some thoughts on how Tier 2 and 3 are evolving? And on top of that, if you are considering at some point entering those markets?

Well, this is very similar to the question I answered at the beginning. Yes, during 2024, we have front-loaded our landbank. So, we are very comfortable with the landbank we have to keep providing revenues until the end of 2029 fiscal year. It is true that the land market is evolving and, in some areas, there's a scarcity of ready-to-be land and some prices are going up fast.  Possibly Costa del Sol is one of these areas that traditionally when the residential markets boom, land prices go up really fast. As I mentioned before, we have a really close approach and dynamic approach to land sourcing. And our teams keep exploring different locations, which I wouldn't refer them to Tier 1 to Tier 2, or Tier 3 because depending on the evolution of the markets, some land which today might be scheduled in Tier 2 group, in 6 months' time can be Tier 1 easily, same land, but because of the evolution of the demand can be in Tier 1. So, the goal here is to read the market to see where the opportunities might arise and to have the teams ready to acquire this land. And this is what these teams, our regional branches have been doing during all these years and keep doing so.

Okay. So, all the following questions that we have received have been already answered. So, this concludes today's presentation. If you have any follow-up questions, the Investor Relations team will be delighted to take them. Thank you very much for joining us. And I remind you that Aedas Homes will be publishing a trading update on our Q1 operating activity on July 2023 -- 2025. Have a nice day.