African Rainbow Minerals Limited (ARI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 6, 2023

Johannesburg Stock Exchange ZA Materials Metals and Mining earnings 89 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. And thank you for joining us this morning for the presentation of the African Rainbow Minerals results for the 6 months ending 31 December 2022. Just to note that this is a hybrid presentation. And I wish to remind participants that there will be a Q&A session at the end of the presentation. Please feel free to submit any questions that you may have during the course of the presentation. These will then be addressed at the end. Without further ado, I would like to invite the African Rainbow Minerals' Executive Chairman, Dr. Patrice Motsepe to take us through the results. Over to you, Chairman.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#2

Thank you. Where is Betty? I was asking, are those real flowers, Betty? Okay. They're not real flowers. Yes. You know I have got a sight -- I'm from the rural area. So when I see flowers, I want to see [Foreign Language] Thank you so much for all of you attending the interim results presentation. It's a great honor. And the documents have been distributed, Mike. So I'm really going to highlight a few specific points and then Mike and Tsu and Phillip and André and Thando will answer the questions. And usually, the difficult questions goes to them and the easy questions -- I'm seeing the real easy ones, I might try and answer. Our headline earnings for the first half of 2023 increased by 20 -- sorry, increased by 40% to ZAR 5.2 billion. And the equivalent period last year was ZAR 3.7 billion, and we declared an interim dividend of ZAR 14 per share. Our financial position remains robust with net cash of ZAR 9.6 billion at 31 December 2022, after settling the acquisition price for Bokoni Mine in cash. We paid about ZAR 3.5 billion for Bokoni in cash. And what I usually do in the morning is to listen to Bloomberg, CNBC, and they were talking about the Chinese Central Communist Party Congress that took place last week and the 5% GDP growth that they pronounced and the impact that, that will have on commodities and specifically on the minerals that African Rainbow Minerals mine and market and sell in partnership with our partners. I want to Sumitomo -- express our gratitude for seeing our partners from Sumitomo. It's -- we're so grateful that you are here with us and our partnership is working very well. Overview of results. Our safety and health statistics indicate that there's been a 22% decrease in lost time injury frequency rate, and our total recordable injury frequency rate went down by 5% to 0.62%. We unfortunately had one fatality at Two Rivers, and we once more express our condolences to our colleague and to his family and friends. And post the period end at Black Rock mine, we achieved 11 million fatality-free shifts. The issue of safety and health cannot be sufficiently overemphasized. I was at the meeting of the ICMM. I think sometime last week with the CEOs of the largest mining companies in the world. And all of the ICMM members and ARM as well is committed to 0 tolerance of circumstances and environment that can put our employees, in fact, put it more in the positive. We want to make sure that the work environment is as safe as it possibly can be. Headline earnings increased by 4% at ARM Ferrous to ZAR 2.5 billion and ARM Platinum increased 7% to ZAR 1.3 billion. ARM Coal, now this is -- manganese is black. So when we make money out of manganese, some of the -- Mike tells me black is beautiful. And when we make money out of all of the other minerals, whether they are green, orange, white, I don't know, as long as they create value for shareholders, they're also beautiful. But coal has been a big, big challenge to us. And our duties to shareholders, not just in the short term but also in the long term, but Mike and others will talk more about coal. What I do need to overemphasize is our commitment to a green economy and our commitment to what is regarded as a just and equitable and fair transition is very important to us. I think there's a global recognition that there's a total commitment to 0 emissions pollution and the gases, CO2 emissions that harm and destroy our government -- destroy our [indiscernible] there's absolutely no doubt about it. But there's an equal realization that our commitment is to human beings, is to people. When we talk about climate change is because of the impact, of course, of our commitment to the climate, but also how the living conditions and the lifestyles of our people worldwide. So we have committed this ARM to our shareholders in the medium -- short to medium term in relations of coal. We will continue to deal with it in a manner that's responsible that's, as I said, essentially committed to the just transition, but also recognizing that everything we do has to be in the best interest of our shareholders, our employees, our workers as well as to our country as a whole and to the continent and to the world. Okay, that's on Ferrous. 6-monthly headline earnings, you see that there's been a steady increase over the last 4, 5 years in our 6-monthly headline earnings. I think that slide is self-explanatory, ZAR 5.1 billion. Dividends per share. Shareholders, we -- shareholders own the company and we have a duty to the workforce, the communities that live near our mines. We also have a duty to all of the stakeholders in its totality, women businesses, young boys and girls, job creation, the transition of skills and expertise. But dividends are key. Shareholders want to know when is my next dividend and what's happening to the share price. So we are committed to being a globally competitive company in relation to the results because it's the results that speak. André Joubert was reminding me that we are a shareholder in the Blue Bulls now. When the Blue Bulls don't win, don't remind me about them, particularly when it's bonus time, because -- Mike supports Western province and Phillip supports all of them. Phillip is politically correct. But -- so the issues -- shareholders want to see the results. They want to see dividends that consistently increase and they also want to see a share price that is competitive and that's growing. And that's why you will see when Mike talks about our performance, we can't blame everything. Of course, we -- our dividends are good and the revenues have been good, to a large extent to the diversified portfolio as well as to the contribution of coal. But -- and what we cannot deny is that Transnet and Eskom are critically, critically important. Now you cannot -- I cannot sufficiently emphasize the importance of a Transnet that is world-class, the importance of an Eskom that has 0 tolerance on load shedding. Those are critically, critically important issues. So you will see in our results not just African Rainbow Minerals, but all of the mining companies and the economy as a whole have been negatively impacted by what has happened both in Transnet and Eskom. And our commitment as a company is to work together with the mining industry, and work together with all other stakeholders and partners and businesses and also to work together with both Transnet and Eskom to make sure that those essential utilities are well managed, well run, globally competitive. And the best people are employed with the best skills and expertise. And there's absolute, absolute 0 tolerance on corruption and improper behavior and favoritism and all sorts of nonsense that is contrary to global best practices. But the point I want to make is, we were talking last week that we take cognizance of the impact of both Transnet and Eskom on the increase of our cost, but we have to look beyond that and ask ourselves 2 issues. Those circumstances major steps that are under our control, we have to be innovative. We've got to be creative and make sure that despite the serious challenges of Eskom and Transnet that we consistently create equity -- create value for shareholders. Mike will talk a little bit about that, but also that those factors that are under our control, the way we manage our employees, our efficiency, our productivity, and those operational management measures that are under ARM's control that we are world-class in that regard. Dividends received from Assmang, ZAR 3.5 billion. Dividend -- distributions received from ARM Coal and there's a footnote there, ZAR 1.1 billion. And then the dividends received from ARM mining consortium ZAR 500 million. You never stop learning in the mining industry because there are times when things are so, so bad. Either because the rand is too strong or because -- usually because the prices of our commodities are going down. And it's -- I was going to say that there's blood on the floor. So we have to make sure that -- and then that gets followed by periods when there's good profitability and occasionally, a super cycle. So we've got a use the profits that we derive during the periods when the prices of our commodities are very good and invest in the future in the long term. And consistently over an extended period of time, create value for shareholders. The dividends we received from Two Rivers are ZAR 400 million. Segmental EBITDA split by commodities. Commodities, you can see it speaks for itself. I mean, PGMs have been growing over the years. If you look at 2018, 19% of our segmental EBITDA came from PGMs, and that has sequentially increased over the years. And we said that we want the fairness division to grow, both in terms of revenues and profitability and volume, but specifically in terms of profitability. But in the overall mix of our portfolio, we want -- there was a time when there was a disproportionate dependence on Ferrous. So I think the management team has done great work and the benefits of diversification are coming through. The ARM strategy. You can place your strategy and put it forward in the best possible manner. But again, as we've always said, we are judged by results over an extended period. And the growth projects I think, Mike, I wanted to talk a little bit on Bokoni and Two Rivers and the Two Rivers plant expansion, the Two Rivers Merensky, as well as Two Rivers plant expansion, and what's happening at Black Rock and Gloria. I think these slides are self-explanatory, but in the mining industry, you have to extensively invest in the future. But you've got to be careful as well because you've got to buy the best possible ore bodies. You've got to make sure that your cost structure is at the lowest possible percentile. And what is also important is you've got to have a competitive growth strategy. So we are very privileged that some of the smartest people this company when they reach retirement age, we're always try and persuade them to continue delivering their unique skills and expertise and, in particular, contribute to the growth of the company. But that slide is self-explanatory, I'm not going to spend too much time on that. Strong PGM growth expected, and you can see in 2027, in terms of the ounce contribution of PGMs, and there are some creative things going on. I spent a little bit more time going to Silicon Valley than I used to. And it's partly because of the disproportionate impact on technology, not just on the way we live, but also in the way we run our businesses. And many of the things they tell me on technology goes above my head, I don't understand it because it's highly technical. But we've got smart, bright and usually younger people in African Rainbow Minerals that see what -- how technology can indeed be a game changer. Mike and André, we've spoken about [indiscernible] direct and [indiscernible] previously. And we've invested hundreds of millions of rands on -- in how we can use technology to be more efficient, more profitable and to create more value, okay? Can we clap hands for Mike as he comes to make his presentation.

Michael Schmidt

executive
#3

Thank you very much, Patrice. Okay. I'll just test my sound. Can everyone hear me? Patrice, thank you very much. I mean I normally say this, and I'll say it again, you've said anything. I'm not sure what I can add. But I think you touched on such an important points about cost and cost control. And whilst we can look at issues like logistics, power and water concerns, that's maybe for our vault but certainly no excuse for our Platinum operations. And that's where there's a lot of work to be done. So these [ economist ] factors as important as they are and need to be addressed. And I want to give you and hope to give you some comfort before I move off this podium that we absolutely recognize the importance of dealing with that -- with those costs and particularly within the Platinum operations. With that, I just really acknowledge all of our executive teams, management teams, our partners, and most important Patrice, to you and our Board who have been so supportive of us, and an indicative of that we have a number of Board vendors online and quite a number of our Board members present today, and thank you to you all. So a very warm welcome to everyone. For those of you who joined online. So generally, we're pretty pleased with the overall performance, notwithstanding the logistical award and power challenges experienced over the reporting period. Above inflation unit costs at the Ferrous operations, we're negatively impacted by logistic power and water constraints together with big increases in diesel exposures and [ reduction ] costs. Sorry, Betty? Can you see? So the unit cost increases in the Platinum, and I want to dwell on them. We're undoubtedly still impacted by diesel and explosives together with some power constraints. It has impacted us. But by far, the biggest challenge we're seeing is grade and volume drops, which we need to put a lot of time and effort improving grade recovery and output. We remain pretty cautious, but optimistic that many of the above challenges I've referred to are showing early signs of improvements. Evidence, in fact, is we see fuel prices that are well off the highs of the second quarter. And other local and global inflation readings are trending downwards in the last couple of months, which is pleasing. We are also seeing early signs of improved performance at our rail and our ports. Grade challenges, I alluded to that, and I cannot overstress that at Two Rivers and Modikwa are being addressed with positive indicators, albeit early signs. We have realized the improvements to all our safety indicators.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#4

[indiscernible] operation.

Michael Schmidt

executive
#5

I want to -- I'm just doing an overview. Apologies, I can put the headline earnings up. But I'm sticking to that slide. I'm not moving off that slide for a while.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#6

Great.

Michael Schmidt

executive
#7

So we have realized the improvements on all of our safety indicators. And our main focus is ultimately to achieve 0 harm to our people, our surrounding communities and to the environment at large. So ARM has been a member of ICMM and has long recognized that economic growth should never be at the expense of people and planet. Sustainability remains a priority for us. We continue to make significant contributions to the social and economic development in all the regions in which we operate. We aim to find the right balance in terms of short-term performance, requirements and the long-term ESG goals that embedded in this principle across all aspects of our business. In line with our commitment to paying dividends while pursuing quality growth and maintaining a robust financial position, we are pleased with the interim dividend. The fundamentals for the metals we mine remain robust. All of our operations maintain strong margins and remain well positioned on the global cost curve. A little bit on Bokoni. So the DFS, which we spoke about is proceeding well. It's on track to present the DFS to the investment in the Board by June of this year. It's a definitive feasibility study that to optimize and rightsize that ore body. So there's been a number of enhancements and improvements we've already recognized in terms of the pre-feasibility, and they also will be implemented. We have already put operational and specialist teams on site. We are busy with preparations for on-reef development and early stoping. A decision in the meanwhile has been made to recommission the 60-kt plant to process the on-reef development and stoping ore from Middlelpunt shaft until the main concentrator plant is commissioned, and we expect that around about 2026. The focus remains on developing the UG2 ore body while studies continue on the existing Merensky and the Brakfontein shafts and already identified further open pit for open cost opportunities. In terms of the Merensky, the construction of the Merensky concentrator plant has been delayed by approximately 8 months due to geotechnical challenges on the plant footprint, which require deeper excavations than initially planned with a redesigned strengthening of the [ civils ]. This however has been completed and plant construction is well on its way. The overall project completion date, however, remains unaffected. Pleasing, the mining is proceeding well with current stockpiles circa 400,000 tonnes on stock. The projects remains robust, value accretive and will deliver PGMs on the bottom half of the cost curve. The capital costs, as indicated on the previous slide with Patrice have increased by ZAR 1.5 billion. So moving to ZAR 7.2 billion by end of project owing to scope changes in geotechnical and some of the global procurement challenges and cost overruns we've alluded to similar pace by the operations. The [indiscernible] coal earnings was due to significantly improved realized prices, which we are now starting to see normalization to pre Russian-Ukraine conflict levels. We see that similar trend with other commodities like oil and gas. The logistical challenges still remain a serious problem on the coal line. As part of the EV and hydrogen evolution, the world requires much safer and cleaner and greener metals. That's a topic you hear all the time. So ARM is investing significant resources into technologies that will satisfy the above requirements by reducing costs, improving productivity and are lowering our carbon intensity. Some of the legacy around environmental issues and tailings dams are also being aggressively addressed. Our focus is on alternative smelting and metallurgical extraction technologies and the development of an autonomous recutting system, which, if successful, will enhance safety, productivity and certainly reduce our dependency on explosives. Coal margins will reduce, and I move on to Slide 16. So if we look at the margins, coal margins were induced as prices normalize. The manganese margins are likely to improve with increased volume and further efficiency improvements due to the upgraded ore handling belt systems and a reduction in our underground trucking. The manganese and iron ore are likely to be beneficiaries of China abandoning its zero-COVID policies and introducing stimulus measures to arrest its housings market slump. One more, Betty. I've got it. Thank you. As seen on the profit variance graph, we can see the huge impact on volume variance out of the Ferrous division. A drop in the manganese alloy prices will have a material impact on margins. The online unit costs will improve as input costs normalize and volumes increase over time. Khumani remains a flagship high grade, low stripping ratio, 2.6, 55% of our production is more than 65% hard lumpy, which is highly sort of with blast furnaces. We're currently doing 14 million tonnes and has a life expectancy still have more than 20 years. The mine has state-of-the-art rapid load-out facilities, a highly water-efficient pace disposal facility consuming 80% less of water per tonne than conventional processes. So there's a lesson tender to you in the Platinum, and operates a fleet of efficient and modern load and haul equipment. The mine has achieved and maintained very high -- I'm talking Black Rock now, particularly the mines achieved and maintained a high standard of safety and operational efficiency. This has manifested itself in the record-breaking 11 million fatality free shifts, which happened recently on the 23rd of February. I want to just well that a moment. So we look at our Northern Cape operations, you've got Black Rock, it's got been running 14 years fatal-free. Beeshoek underground and Black Rock underground. Beeshoek open pit mine has gone 19 years fatality free. Cumulatively, the 3 operations are setting more than 25 million fatality-free shifts, undoubtedly world-class record. This is a high -- the mine has achieved and this is a high-grade manganese ore mine with top class management team with a new mine shaft and infrastructure and I'll turn the capital we've invested in terms of the modernization and upgrade. So we've just, as I said, spent ZAR 10 billion over the last couple of years. The installed capacity on that is up to 4.6 million tonnes of saleable ore. The complex consists of 3 mines, also rapid load-out facilities and excellent facilities to deliver good quality, high-grade manganese into the market. We are starting to see the benefits of the capital program. And Black Rock through much lower unit cost, increases relative to the market, especially in this high inflationary environment. The mine has a life still in excess of 30 years. The mine has also recently commissioned a fleet of battery electric vehicles to reduce carbon emissions and diesel particulates underground to further improve efficiencies. There are a number of ongoing studies to review in terms of the alloy position, to review our options, to look at outputs and to improve our cost position. Input costs have been extraordinary high to raw materials, the reductants coming in. We've recently commissioned a bricks and a sinter plant at [indiscernible], which is performing exceptionally well. The plan is also then to move a sinter to Sakura. These technologies will undoubtedly assist in reducing our input and improving our furnace efficiencies. On the Platinum side, I think these graphs are self-explanatory. They indicate, they highlight the challenge and the focus area that need to improve and require to arrest cost concerns. I just -- on the next slide, I want to touch a little bit. So I think the major advantage or opportunity we have is grade. We've been talking about ever declining grades at Two Rivers, and we're seeing areas at Modikwa and we have to put a lot more focus in Thando. We are putting new teams, new sampling team, sampling crews. Every single face will remeasured every day. Grade, grade, grade is king. And that, together with volumes will drive our cost. There's no doubt that they have to drive costs on the controllables that are under our control, and there are many. So at -- we have also brought in additional development crews to improve the mining reserve and improve on our flexibility. At Bokoni Mine, the site establishment and debottlenecking is proceeding well, with first stoping expected as early as July 2023, and we intend commissioning the 60-kt plant by the end of September this year, that's probably more than a year ahead of what was initially planned, as I said, the DFS, which is a definitive study will be out by June 2023. Just briefly touch on Nkomati. The mine still remains on care and maintenance. We are -- continue with a lot of water study, closure studies and optimization studies if it presents itself. Understanding Nkomati is a pretty low grade operation. We closed it back in '20 due to the pit, which we said has virtually exhausted itself and the underground resources are complete, different bottle of fish that need to be attended to. On coal, we do see that on the profit variance analysis, you can see the material impact on the earnings due to price rally. Also reflected on the unit cost of production is the negative impact we've seen on unit cost, and that is primarily due to logistical constraints. Whilst prices are expected to normalize, too, as I said, pre Ukrainian conflict levels, we anticipate over the next couple of months, improve volume delivery. And both GGV and PCB are sitting on significant stockpiles to date, which need to be processed as we can move these logistically. We're doing about 30% of our volumes on truck. And everyone appreciates the impact on roads, the impact on cost and the trucking costs. So it really is in all of our interest to address the issues of -- in the first instance, logistics. I want to just maybe in conclusion, say as an industry, we do face a number of headwinds and ARM is included in that. And I say cost, probably to all is cost. I can use that [ poetic ] line, cost sustainability but costs our problem, we have to go. So whilst cost pressures we're facing are really -- it's only just type of costing. It still remains our collective responsibility to address and arrest these cost pressures to ensure a sustainable future. Pleasingly, there's a lot of positive engagements and collaboration on multiple funds to get us back on track. With that we do have a sense of determination and urgency to collectively address logistical challenges with all stakeholders and partners. Pointing fingers is not going to help the situation. We need collaboration, we need partnerships, and we will move our industry forward. Patrice, with that, thank you very much.

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#8

Good morning, again, ladies and gentlemen. On this slide, we have our guiding capital allocation principles that we have communicated in previous results. So when we look at our principles, we prioritize investing in our existing business as well as repaying debt. Now sustaining capital expenditure or stay in business capital is what we mean when we talk about investing in our existing business. If we then move to the next column after the debt repayment, we always actively seek to grow our existing business as well as pursue mergers and acquisitions that make commercial sense to ARM. These opportunities battle it out for capital, so people don't just get what they ask for. So they need to actually show that these are value-accretive projects if we were to pursue them. And really how we look at it is that we look at a number of metrics. And these include return on capital employed, payback period, hurdle rates, et cetera. And these are all used to assess the opportunities as and when they come. But we also look at returning capital to shareholders, and we look at doing that in the form of either dividends, so dividend payments and/or share buybacks. This slide on screen illustrates how we generated cash and how that cash was allocated in the 6 months in the 31 December 2022. We generated around ZAR 5.3 billion from the operations. This equates to an increase of approximately 10% compared to the corresponding period, and also takes into account a ZAR 641 million decrease in net working capital. We received ZAR 3.5 billion in dividends from Assmang, which equals the dividend received in the corresponding period. We also received a ZAR 17 million dividend from Harmony, which together makes up that amount to ZAR 3,517 million or ZAR 3.5 billion. These funds were applied as follows: We paid out ZAR 3.9 billion to ARM shareholders. Another sizable outflow was the acquisition of Bokoni with a net cash outflow of ZAR 3.4 billion. So it was the ZAR 3.5 billion consideration implies together with or offset against some of the cash that was actually already sitting within the Bokoni business. And then we also invested ZAR 1.8 billion in capital expenditure, which was for both, stay in business capital as well as expansionary capital. And if we look at the increase year-on-year, this was close to about ZAR 1 billion increase year-on-year. In terms of our net cash and debt, our total borrowings reduced by ZAR 200 million during the period to a balance of ZAR 289 million as of the end of December 2022. The balance really relates to mostly IFRS 16 lease liabilities as well as the RMBE Trust loan owing to Harmony Gold. So if we look at where we sit on our net cash position, we closed the 6 months at a net cash to equity position of just over 18%. Late last week, Assmang declared a dividend of ZAR 3 billion, of which ZAR 1.5 billion is attributable to ARM. This amount is not included in the numbers depicted on the slide. So the capital expenditure for the reporting period was covered -- partly covered by Mike in terms of his presentation, and it is covered in the presentation or the uploaded presentation in each one of the divisions sections. Some of the things that you can note, so segmental capital expenditure, which is capital expenditure on an attributable basis was ZAR 2.9 billion for the 6 months under review, which is ZAR 1 billion up when we compare it to the prior corresponding period. Most of this was spent at our PGM operations, about ZAR 1.7 billion of it was spent there. ZAR 1 billion was for Ferrous and then ZAR 230-odd million for Coal. If we look at guidance for 2023, financial year ending 2023, full year, that guidance has increased by ZAR 1.1 billion to ZAR 8.3 billion or ZAR 8.275 billion that you see there on the slide, relative to the ZAR 7.2 billion we had communicated last year in August. This is due to the increase in capital expenditure at our ARM Platinum operations as we see an increase in cost for the Merensky project that Mike mentioned as well as capital brought forward for Bokoni to deliver early ounces. If we look at CapEx from 2024, '25, those figures there, the 7 -- roughly ZAR 7.8 billion for both years, include approximately about ZAR 3.5 billion on a normalized level of sustaining CapEx per annum. Thank you very much.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#9

Thank you. Are we on, Betty? Okay. So what is the next issue now?

Operator

operator
#10

So Chair, next, we'll go to our Q&A. So Chairman, I'll read them out. So the first question comes from Martin Creamer from Mining Weekly.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#11

Asking why is it not here? We miss him very much because it's always great to see. What is his first question?

Operator

operator
#12

What, in your view, should be done to ensure that South Africa's energy and logistics are globally competitive?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#13

Sorry, just repeat.

Operator

operator
#14

What, in your view, should be done to ensure that South Africa's energy and logistics are globally competitive? That's the first question.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#15

Okay. What is the other question? So we'll answer that. What is the other?

Operator

operator
#16

The next question is, can you please provide details on the options you're exploring from Nkomati? Would you say the current nickel fundamentals are supportive of a restart of operations at Nkomati?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#17

Very good. I think, Nkomati is very simple. I think Mike will make announcements in that regard in due course. I mean he'll just make a few broad remarks. Mike will say a few remarks on Nkomati in terms of the status quo. What else?

Operator

operator
#18

Next question. Congratulations on the robust results. Question, with the likelihood of commodity prices going up in the foreseeable future, do you anticipate any M&A or mergers and acquisition opportunities at these lost devaluations?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#19

At these lost devaluation. Do you want to take that? Okay, Phillip will take that.

Operator

operator
#20

Okay. And then the last question, Chair, for now. One of South Africa's iron ore producers has disclosed unsuccessful attempts with Transnet to operate the North Cape, Saldanha Bay rail line privately. Has ARM, together with its partners, made any progress with engagements to improve efficiencies on the rail line?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#21

André, you'll deal with that, yes. Let me just -- is it the last?

Betty Mollo

executive
#22

That's the last.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#23

And then others will come later, and we'll take questions here as well. Just 2 issues. There are serious challenges with both Transnet and Eskom. And of course, as always happens behind closed doors, there is hard, hard, there are hard and very, very serious discussions taking place. And that's why in the public domain, it's critically important to over-emphasize the commitment for results long term. We have found over the years that you don't actually solve the problem. You don't achieve what you want to achieve by making pronouncements in public, which pronouncements are factually correct in relation to deficiencies and poor performances in parastatals. But the key issues, we've learned that what we want is we want to get out of this mess. And make sure that there's significant progress both from -- in relation to our companies in the mining industry and in the South African economy as well. But I've got no doubt that government as well needs the taxes. The taxes that comes from the business has been able to export more and the efficiency that goes with the Transnet and Eskom, that functions that they should. There should be more income, more taxes for the government and the government should be able to use that to build infrastructure and improve the living conditions of the citizens of this country. So in our response on these issues, you will find that we tend to be a little bit more objective in saying what needs to be done. But as I said, we find that there's a commitment on the government side, but we need more than commitments, all of us. We need results. We need properly, globally competitive Transnet. I mean if you look at Australia, what is the difference in Australia is that their rail is privately owned. And every time when I go to China, they tell me that Australia, including Brazil, their rail network is world-class. World-class. And when the price of your commodities are very high and you don't increase your exports, not only have you lost revenue and income for the companies, but I can over-emphasize from a government perspective as well. You've lost its important and essential funding that this country desperately needs. So I want to conclude more on a positive outlook in terms of the commitment, both on the government side. And I'm proud of the companies this country has and the CEOs in the mining industry and in the South African economy as a whole. Business doesn't always get the credit it deserves. And I think we've got world-class, world-class. We've got some of the best managers, executive, CEOs, companies in the world. And that's what gives me confidence. And that's why the partnerships and our commitment to work together with Transnet in particular, And whatever contributions can be made to make Eskom much more efficient, much more reliable and stop this nonsense of loadshedding. Loadshedding is not good for the economy, for business and for ordinary citizens. Will you respond, André, the first question about -- so we need to give hope, and we need to stay on the positive side. And as I said, we need to get results. Yes, André?

André Joubert

executive
#24

All right. Thank you, Patrice, and to the questions. I think the Transnet issue, of course, we were -- we're not happy and not very satisfied about the performance of Transnet, but that doesn't help us much. So we've taken the approach of to say, well, it's not -- maybe it's not our fault, but it is definitely a problem. So through various engagements, we started in late last year, and also with the help of Transnet. And I must say very, very good support from the Transnet Board. We set up a joint working sessions. And to that effect, I think we're making -- not I think, we are making very good progress. I'm actually leading the program in engagement with Transnet related to the manganese channels. And I really have to say that there's very, very positive engagement with the Transnet management team. In fact, I'm meeting with them almost on a -- not almost. I'm meeting with them on a weekly basis. We also have input from the Transnet Board on a biweekly basis. So at this point in time, if you look at the first half of the year compared to the second half of the year, I can definitely say there is improvement. We're not there yet. There's a lot of challenges. And also taking into account that Transnet did go through a very difficult patch with the state capture and all the challenges they had with their locals, et cetera, et cetera. But there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel. And we are making good progress. It's not going to be a quick fix. This is a long term. There's been some short-term issues identified and we can already see the fruits of that bearing. And then there's, of course, a longer-term issue to grow the industry, to grow the export capacity of South Africa. And again, I'm very hopeful that there is going to be improvement in output. Now I'm not basing my hope just because I want to be positive. I'm basing my hope on the actual results that I am seeing. So from that perspective, ARM is really taking -- and in collaboration with not only our partners, but also the other players and other participants in the various export lines. And we are making very positive progress in that regard. And as I said, I think, from an industry perspective, it will take us another 2 years, maybe a little bit longer, to get back to the contractual commitments and the nameplate capacity that we've seen before. But definitely, a positive outlook, and good, positive energy and progress has been made to date.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#25

Thank you. Phillip?

Phillip Tobias

executive
#26

Thank you very much, Chair. And thanks for that question that was asked regarding the appetite for mergers and acquisition. I mean going back to Slide 31, where our colleagues basically took us through the allocation of funds. You would have realized that one of the basket there talks through mergers and acquisitions. And the fact that we have it as a consideration really talks to our intent that we're not just satisfied where we are, as is. Obviously, we continue to look for opportunities. And then those opportunities should really be value-accretive. It's not just going to be an issue of merger or acquisition at all cost. We need to continue to look at what is our investment criteria, investment metrics. If there's an opportunity, is it really going to add or is going to be very destructive. And our commitment is to make sure that we continue to improve the quality of our portfolio, the quality of our assets. And as and when these opportunities come our way, we basically review and reflect on that objectively. And I think a classical example is the Bokoni Platinum mine acquisition, which is a recent one that we're basically looking at. We have seen an opportunity. We saw a gap, and we believe that the price was right and the timing as well, and we went for it. So it's not going to be just acquisition for the sake of doing it. It's in line with our growth and our investment proposition and also investment criteria as well. Thank you very much.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#27

Absolutely. Phillip is 100% correct. Mike, on then Nkomati?

Michael Schmidt

executive
#28

Thank you. There was a question raised around the Nkomati. I did touch that on one of the slides to say the options are still open for consideration. We are pursuing current appropriate rehab as we talk. We are pursuing all our optionality around closure and water requirements. I trust everyone, you know that we're in a very eco and environmentally sensitive area. Now we did announce a couple of years ago that the open pit by and large, had come to its economic end. The ore resource that remains is underground. Some of the limitations, it's not that well defined or drilled. Access or limited access is quite a challenge with the current shaft infrastructure, and these things have to be carefully considered with the partners over time. So that's the position we still stand, and Nkomati remains on care and maintenance. Thank you, Patrice.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#29

Just 2 key points. On the Martin Creamer question. What should be done -- what do we think should be done to make Transnet and Eskom globally competitive? I mean if you look at some of the most successful companies, there are some examples of parastatals that are really world-class. I mean Aramco in Saudi, world-class and various others. Step #1, employ the best people. Employ the people with the best skills and expertise, non-negotiable. Step #2, pay them well. Pay them what they -- as close as what they would get in the private sector. Many years ago, I was on the Board of -- I was on the advisory council of JPMorgan, and worked with one of the most respected people in the world, Lee Kuan Yew, from Singapore. Singapore employs some of the smartest and the brightest in the private sector and makes them ministers and make -- let them run corporations or enterprises, some of which either the government has a huge amount of equity or they are essentially government-owned. But you've got some of the smartest and the most talented people in government. And that's one of the things I think developing countries, including South Africa should do. We should attract some of the best skills and expertise. And the last thing is zero tolerance on corruption, absolute, absolute zero tolerance. Don't talk about it. We should be seen to be taking the right steps that reflects this zero tolerance of corruption. And if we do that over an extended period of time, not even over extended period, in the medium to short term, both Transnet and Eskom should be globally competitive. We're going to answer rather short and quick because we don't usually want to keep you longer than what is required. There are some questions here? Yes. Just introduce, tell us what your name is, and we'll try and answer quickly. And of course, at the end, we're going to stay behind. Mike and the team will stay behind. Mike will be going for all interviews and deal with -- whatever questions you have will be dealt with. We saw a hand there.

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#30

My name is Thabang Thlaku from SBG Securities. I've got 3 questions on my side.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#31

Only 3.

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#32

Only 3, Patrice. So the first question is, when you guys put together your current dividend policy, wasn't in a fantastic cash position. So we understood why you wanted a conservative guiding policy. But now you're sitting on ZAR 12.5 billion of cash, including the cash being at Assmang. And the market is expecting that you pay a dividend that's perhaps more related to your earnings. Can you give us some idea as to how you're thinking about your dividend?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#33

Tsu says she'll answer. That's an excellent question. Tsu will answer it. Question number two.

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#34

It's directed specifically at her, Patrice.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#35

Yes, absolutely. Question number two?

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#36

My second question is around coal. I mean you're talking about price increases of 56% to GGV and 63% at PCB, and granted your cost increases are double digit, but one would have still expected a margin expansion, but your EBITDA is actually 9%. Can you please explain that to us, Thando?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#37

Very good question. You already know who you like. Thando, she's chosen you. Remember when we were at high school and we had a high school dance, and the wonderful girl said I think I want to dance with you. And when she does it, you freeze up. "You mean me?" Thando, she chose you.

Thando Mkatshana

executive
#38

Got it.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#39

Okay. Next question.

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#40

And my last question is for André. Next dance is for you, André. just wanted to clarify something with regards to the Transnet announcement on the 23rd of Feb, that they'd be giving allocation to junior miners. I just wanted to see or understand how it impacts your manganese operations. Obviously, you guys built Black Rock in anticipation of high capacity. And my understanding is, according to MECA2, you are sitting on about 4 million. Now of that 4 million, is the 4 full guarantee or only 85% of it guaranteed? And just as a follow-up to your earlier comment, André. When you say that it's going to take a few years to get back to nominal capacity, how many years are we talking about?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#41

Very good question. Just what is your company called?

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#42

Standard Bank Group Securities.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#43

Great. They're lucky to have you at Standard Bank.

Thabang Thlaku

analyst
#44

I agree, Patrice.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#45

Sam is an old, old friend we used to work together many years ago at Bowmans. I'm going to tell him he must look after you. Otherwise, we might steal you. We will compete. Are there any other questions? Let's take all the questions.

Operator

operator
#46

Are there any other questions?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#47

Yes, there's another question.

Brian Morgan

analyst
#48

Brian Morgan, RMB Morgan Stanley. Just a question on...

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#49

Great Company. Great company.

Brian Morgan

analyst
#50

Just a question on the Merensky project, quite a big capital overrun there. Could you just give us a little bit more color, a little bit more detail on what's changed there, if you don't mind?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#51

Perfect. Next question? Is that your only question?

Brian Morgan

analyst
#52

Yes.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#53

Okay. Mike will deal with it. Any other questions? Okay. So there's no other -- yes, there's another question there. There are no other questions, Tsu. Okay, let's take all of that.

Unknown Executive

executive
#54

There's one more question from the floor.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#55

Okay. Let's take the one from the floor.

Shilan Modi

analyst
#56

Shilan Modi from HSBC. You're guiding volume growth in almost all of your operations, what sort of loadshedding allowance are you expecting?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#57

What sort of?

Shilan Modi

analyst
#58

Loadshedding allowance. So are you expecting electricity availability to improve and, therefore, you're guiding growth? Or what allowance have you made? Specifically with the PGM operations, a lot of the processing or the companies that do processing are impacted a bit more than the mine is by loadshedding. What happens if they don't have enough capacity because of loadshedding?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#59

Very good questions. Very good question. Mike, you will -- you can do something about loadshedding, Mike? Okay. I think let's take this question as well, Betty, on the -- online.

Betty Mollo

executive
#60

Online.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#61

Online.

Betty Mollo

executive
#62

All right. No problem. Chair, so there are some questions. There's one question from Lisa Steyn from News24. Her questions are really around logistics. I think the first question André already actually answered. But it said that, please could you provide an update on how the joint steering committee meetings with Transnet are progressing?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#63

You've answered that, André.

Betty Mollo

executive
#64

Yes. The next question still on the logistics. If the benchmark coal price falls below $100...

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#65

Coal? Is it coal?

Betty Mollo

executive
#66

If the benchmark coal price falls below $100 per tonne, will ARM Coal continue to track 30% of its product? Or what is the percentage likely to fall to?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#67

Good question. Thando? Yes. Okay.

Betty Mollo

executive
#68

Still on Lisa's question. Please advise what sort of private sector participation is truly possible on the Transnet Coal/manganese and iron ore lines and what role could ARM possibly play.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#69

You'll deal with that, okay.

Betty Mollo

executive
#70

And then the last question, Chair, from online. From Warren Riley from Bateleur Capital. Iron ore export guidance for financial year 2023 implies over 7 million tonnes in export sales in H2. Is the iron ore line now running optimally? Please, could you give an indication of iron ore stockpiles at the mine and at the port?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#71

Okay. Now we should share that we shouldn't -- Mike, you think you can help André there as well? So that we don't let him answer all the difficult ones. Is it all?

Betty Mollo

executive
#72

That's all, Chair.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#73

Okay. Thank you. Let's start with you. So let's start with Thando. Thando is a member of the Communist Party, that's why I sit on the left.

Thando Mkatshana

executive
#74

Okay. Let me start with the first question from Thabang. Yes, Thabang, a good observation on that. But if you recall, about 4 years ago, we did announce the restructuring of the ARM Coal loans. So those earnings are really impacted with the loan remeasurements, if you look at the realized price increases compared to the earnings. So their measurement related to about ZAR 246 million on loans. Pleasingly, though, that loans have been paid off. So going forward, we won't be seeing those remeasurement on the loans.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#75

That's all. Thando is a social democrat, not a communist. Is it all, Thando?

Thando Mkatshana

executive
#76

I'll take the second question that's related to the trucking. So obviously, the trucking is an opportunity, which we are utilizing with the current challenges on Transnet. And of course, it is a process that we engage with the truckers all the time. And there are a couple of factors that affect the price that we pay and the margin that the truckers do make. So currently, it is still viable at the current prices of between $130 to $140 per tonne. Indications are that it will come under pressure if we were to come below $110 per tonne. So at $100 per tonne, I think most probably not. It's not viable, and that wouldn't continue if it is not viable.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#77

Thanks, Thando. André?

André Joubert

executive
#78

Yes. Thank you, Thabang. I'm also going to take your question first. I think, firstly, on the manganese side, we're not opposed to new entrants entering onto the railway line. And in fact, at our Khumani mine, we've been assisting a new entrant since -- if you can just help me, since 2011, right? Yes. So it's called [ Citybank iron ore, ] and we load close to 1 million tonnes for them through our loadout facility for quite a while before -- even before this latest issues evolved. So our guaranteed allocation is 85%. So there is that 15% discretionary portion that Transnet is -- can allocate to us at their discretion. But there's also legal issues in terms of the contract, in terms of notice periods, et cetera, et cetera, that we are defending at this point in time. But if you look at beyond that time in the next -- also the manganese industry, we formed a consortium with a few other -- 5 other mining -- excuse me, manganese producers. And to that effect, we're going to put a bid in for the -- to transform the Port of [ Ngqura ] into that capacity that we feel we can get out of that new port. Unfortunately, that's going to take about 5 years to get through that process. So in the meanwhile, with our capacity, if you take that 15% out, then it's about 3.4 million, 3.6 million tonnes depending on Transnet's actual performance of the day. And then we will be able -- because of our economics and finances and payback and profitability of manganese ore, which we will continuously monitor, we should be able to move about 500,000 tonnes of manganese ore on road. So making our package still in the order of the 4 million tonnes per annum as per the current MECA2 contract. And then in 5 -- and also, I have to stress that we're also working really hard with Transnet. And all the issues that I mentioned before is not just hype and a nice talking. So I think that based on those results that we're seeing an improvement that's been identified, that in about 3 years from now, we will not be on road anymore. So the effort is to replace that road on rail again. And then once [ Ngqura ] is commissioned in 2027, we will be able to get back to our 4.5 million tonnes on manganese ore. So the other question that was asked is the one about the Transnet performance in the second part of this year. Yes, we are predicting the 7 million tonnes. Currently, remember, the first half of the year, we had the Transnet strike. And we also had a shutdown of the Transnet in that period. So there were those 2 major events that impacted our business. Going forward, the next 6 months, if I can say that is a relatively clean period. And in that period, we're currently seeing that we're performing at about 95% of our contractual commitments on Transnet. So I'm -- yes, the 7 is maybe a push, but I'm pretty confident that we're going to get there. In terms of the different models, public/private partnerships, we know what happened to one of our other big iron ore producers in terms of privatizing that line, but we're still engaging with Transnet. We're still working. There's many options. There's many possible permutations in terms of improving the output and working together, and we're still continuing with Transnet in that regard, both iron ore and the manganese. We saw recently where -- as manganese producers, we had a meeting with the CEO of Transnet. I'm talking a week ago. And that meeting was very positive in terms of working together and maybe finding a solution, to funding some of these projects that we need to improve the output of South Africa's iron ore and manganese export. And then finally, we also -- on the manganese side, we're not just looking at the [ Ngqura ] side of things. We're also looking at the Saldanha side of things. And there's a lot of initiatives. And again, very encouraged by that. For instance, on the iron ore side, we're looking at the load-out station in Port Gamsberg, where it's very inefficient. They're loading 100-tonne payload wagons at 63 tonnes. And we're working with Transnet to see if we, as the majors, can absorb and assist the new entrants in getting those, better efficiencies through our load stations. And that will improve the overall throughput and efficiencies of the iron ore line, and it will have a knock-on effect on the manganese side. So there's a lot of engagement. There's a lot of talk. There's a lot of brain power. There's a lot of positive engagement. Yes, it's still a long road. It's not going to be easy. It's not going to happen overnight. But at least, I can see a positive trend and the outcome to the benefit of everybody on the long run. And that long run, I'm talking 2 to 3 years. And the other important thing, I don't see a deterioration in performance. I certainly see an improvement in output.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#79

Just one quick issue. We want new entrants, not just want new entrant, we want to support them. But the strategy clearly has to be to create new capacity to expand the infrastructure rather than to diminish and to reduce the capacity, the rail infrastructure and capacity for those who were currently exporting and have invested huge amounts for increased exports, whether it's manganese or iron ore. So these are really the sort of strategies that are in the interest of the country, the new entrants, the industry is just -- it's self-explanatory. Did you want to say something?

Thando Mkatshana

executive
#80

Just on the issue of the logistics, Chair, as André says, I mean, we start where we are. There's already installed capacity. There are some bottlenecks and that will basically yield the low-hanging fruits. Some of the investments will require additional capital. So we basically have to prioritize and make sure that at least you bank those low-hanging fruit create that additional capacity, get to the 100%. Because as André says, we are currently operating, obviously below that. We need to get to the 100%, increase the piece of the cake so that all the players can really benefit from that. You can't want to increase the piece of the cake when it's already under the installed capacity. We have to sweat that installed infrastructure from Transnet. And collaboration is very key. We come with some technical skills. They bring in their experience as well. And I believe that through that, we'll be able to really come up with long-term sustainable solutions.

André Joubert

executive
#81

If I may just add -- sorry, yes. I just may add one more thing. In ARM, we also not just stuck on logistics. We're also doing very good and very positive work in terms of research and development. And Mike mentioned that in terms of our smelting technology. We're through that process. We can actually reduce our dependency on both Transnet and Eskom by being -- by exporting. If you can benefit here, you export less, you export 50% of the product that you need to export and then also the energy efficiency side of things, a lot of work has been done. And so far, very promising results in terms of reducing our energy consumption, which will also put ARM in a very positive position into the future.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#82

Excellent. Mike?

Michael Schmidt

executive
#83

Brian, thanks for that question. I mean I'm probably not going to do justice to you on this platform, but I am going to sit -- talk with our lead project up with you, so I can get the granularity. But I'm going to touch the highlights. And maybe the key lessons probably more important. Did we make a mistake? Could we have done something better? Undoubtedly. So I think the key lesson to us and that's what we're going to apply with Bokoni is don't assume the front-end engineering is absolutely key. So here we sit with Two Rivers where we have 2 plants, enhanced 2 plants, on extensions, all the silos, all the [ service ] done and virtually a stone's throw from that, the new Merensky plant. So we had a number of infill holes, which determine what the grounding or founding conditions look like and what's required. And on that balance, move forward in terms of starting with the excavations or the civil expirations. What we found is that we anticipated we have to go down approximately 2 meters to get solid, do the right G5 backfill, stability engineering and move forward. As we went, we found laminations and cross-faulting, and we found ground instability. And we ended up going down in some places as much as 6 meters to get into solid. Now I don't have to share on this -- around this back from the implications of a 6 meter excavation on a plant of that magnitude, plus take out all that material, bringing solid G5 material, do the civils and get back out of the ground. And in essence, Brian, front-end engineering has probably cost us 6 months of the 8 months we're talking about. So the -- we've also experienced a lot of challenge with lead times, with long lead items like mills and delays. We've also seen IT challenges. We've seen a lot of changes with suppliers and challenges in terms of delivery times and lead times. One thing we've also realized is where we would conclude these contracts within 6 to 8 months. It's now taking 12 to 14 months to conclude contracts because most contractors and suppliers have become extremely cautious and risk averse and are not taking any of these risks on. Then there were a small -- a couple of smaller issues, but not insignificant in terms of machinery delivery. And in terms of changes to legislation that came about, previous legislation require that the full suppression and fire-resistant bells away in the main declines. Legislation change and wants all strike bells to comply with that same type of legislation. You would appreciate that strike belts are by magnitude tenfold, the amount of belting that's required to be installed to get the project going. And last not least, Brian, is we're simply seeing quite significant above inflation, cost increases on steel. But those -- the granularity lies with Jacques, and I'm going to ask him to please sit with you, if you don't mind.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#84

Thanks. Have we answered all the questions?

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#85

Yes, Chair. Just one from Thabang on the dividend.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#86

Yes, no -- do you want to deal with it privately?

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#87

No, no. I can speak to it. It's fine.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#88

Yes, do that because you see usually when there's a complicated question, you want to talk privately. But this is a beautiful one. This is an easy one. Why don't you go ahead?

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#89

Okay. So Thabang, to your question on the dividend in terms of how we're looking at it going forward. So yes, currently, our dividend guiding principle is we look at the cash coming through from the underlying group companies, which I think it's not a bad way of thinking about it because you look at how much cash that you're actually controlling at corporate that you're then able to declare as a dividend. But in terms of going forward, we are looking at perhaps other fix or another way of calculating dividend, which is more predictable, I would say, or easier to model. Because I think the concerns that we have heard is that it's very difficult for the market to be able to see what the dividends are actually that comes through from the underlying companies, and to model it on that basis. So in terms of going forward, what we're looking at a number of iterations, but we haven't landed. We still need to work, shop it and discuss it in detail with our Board. Our investment committee firstly and then our Board. But it's looking at perhaps a percentage of headline earnings, but then also looking at the project pipeline as well, taking that into consideration and then maybe working that into some kind of minimal buffer at a corporate level. So those are the discussions, but we haven't landed as yet, Thabang.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#90

I just want to add on the question. Yes. I think there's much, much more...

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#91

Work to be done.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#92

Good progress that has been done because I think, Tsu is correct. What is the dividend policy? A dividend policy has to be as concise, as consistent, as predictable, as it possibly can be. Because it's meant to give not just shareholders, but the investment community a reliable, clear perception of what the policy of the company is. So there's nothing more hopeless. Maybe I shouldn't say there's nothing more hopeless. There's more ineffective than a dividend policy, which is all over the show. So we spent specific time looking at how do we make sure that this dividend policy is as reliable, as consistent, as sustainable as we possibly can be or as it possibly can be. And I think what Tsu is saying is that we have to listen because -- and that's why we put the parameters and describe it the way it is because it was as specific as we could be at the time, taking into account the volatility and the unpredictability of the prices of our commodities and the income in the medium to long term. There's a greater degree of comfort and confidence right now, and that's why there has been ongoing discussions. And as I said, the issue for us, one of the issues for us is to listen what people like yourself, Thabang, and various others are saying because we can think that we've done a good job. And when you consistently say that, it's not as good as you think it is. We've got to review and respond accordingly. So it's significantly more positive and significantly more definitive than it might appear. And I think Tsu is correct. We'll make announcements in that regard. But it's for -- where we are now, it serves the purpose of where we come from. But there's a request that we should tighten it and we'll do so. We are looking at it. Is there anything else, Tsu?

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#93

Yes, Chair. There is one question from the floor from Nedbank.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#94

From Nedbank. The bank that always gives us loans. Banks give you loans when you don't want the money. And when you want it, they say, oh, we've got the interest rates are high. Continue.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#95

My name is [ Tom Kline ] from Nedbank. My question is actually related to, I think, the topic that you just spoke to now, which is capital allocation. And I think given your capital allocation that you have mergers and acquisitions ahead of shareholder returns, could you maybe tell us a bit more as to why that is the case that you have mergers and acquisitions ahead of shareholder returns. From companies that we look into usually, it's the other way around? So that's the first question. And then I think your capital allocation perhaps suggests that you are saying that you can deploy capital better than you can -- shareholders can. Therefore, maybe if you can tell us as to what are the next growth avenues for ARM in terms of commodities that you're perhaps excited about. And then finally, I think 2 questions, but they are related. One is could you care to tell us as to what your IRR targets and payback periods are, And also speaking specifically to Bokoni as to what return metrics you currently see in that project? And I think it's important for us to understand those because, like I said, your M&A activity comes ahead of shareholder returns. And therefore, I think getting an understanding as to what your targets are when it comes to return is quite critical for shareholders.

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#96

Good. Your plan is to be CEO of Nedbank at some stage. Brian Kennedy was one of the most senior people at Nedbank, and thank you for those excellent questions. And I'll vote for you to be CEO, maybe we should start buying shares in Nedbank. Just 2 issues. It's incorrect to say that our mergers and acquisitions are ahead of shareholder returns. I mean that's incorrect. The -- when you're a listed company, the success of a listed company doesn't just depend on the plans and the strategies of management and their goals. It depends significantly more on what the market perceptions are of the company. And sometimes, I guess, we don't do a good job in telling the investment community what our plans are and where we are going and maybe even convincing them. And I think this is the excitement of the free market economy and listed companies that if we consistently do the things that excites our shareholders and the investment community, our share price would benefit from that confidence that people like yourself from Nedbank and others have. So there's a clear commitment on our side to make sure that, at all times, we run ARM as a globally competitive company. But equally importantly, that our shareholders and investment communities have got confidence in the track record we build, And when it comes to mergers and acquisitions, in particular, and capital allocation. The mergers and acquisitions are done primarily because they are value-accretive. They create value for shareholders. They may not create significant value in the short term, but there's a clear expectation that they will create value for short -- in the medium to long term. If we've got money on our balance sheet and money at ARM and we think that the shareholders -- that the money is better in the hands of shareholders, rather than in ours hands, we will give it to shareholders and increase the dividends as we have. I mean I'm -- we are a big, big, big shareholder. We started this company and the people that are critically important to us, the shareholders. And the future of this company is in their hands, not in our hands. We've got to make sure that they are excited and confident based on what we -- the value we create in the medium to long term. I don't know what was the other questions he was asking. I mean it's just a whole litany of them. What is the other one, Tsu? But I think that was the one that I think is the most important.

Tsundzukani T. Mhlanga

executive
#97

Yes, Chair. If you can just remind us?

Patrice Motsepe

executive
#98

Well, he mustn't remind us. I think we have to finish now because we have to go to -- I think what we will do is you'll spend some time with him and address those questions. I just want to conclude by saying management has to run in a -- we don't, we can never abuse the word globally competitive. And it starts with attracting and training the best managers and executive. And as Mike mentioned, the Board we have, I mean we are so privileged to have world-class Board members. And thank you so much for those Board members, who are with us. And the third thing is that the investment community listens, but they are more interested in your track record. And the issue of how -- and we have to listen as well and respond as best we can. And there may be instances where shareholders say, "Give us the money." But we think that the best manner to create value for shareholders is not to give the money back to them by way of dividends, but to make a value-accretive acquisition because that will create significantly more money in the long term. And the last issue that our stakeholders, the communities that live near our mines, we've got duties to women-owned businesses, to businesses that are owned by the youth. We've got a duty to create opportunities to all South Africans, black South Africans, white South Africans. We've got a duty to the poor, to the marginalized and make them part of the economy. And we recognize that as much as we have to create dividends that are globally competitive. We've got a duty to stakeholders and we have to make our contribution to making South Africa a better place for all our people. Thank you so much, and we are honored that you came to join us. Thank you once more.

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