Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited (AGARIND.BO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Q3 and 9 Months Ended FY '25 Earnings Conference Call, hosted by Hem Securities. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Astha Jain, Senior Research Analyst from Hem Securities. Thank you, and over to you, ma'am.

Thank you. A very good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining the Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Q3 and 9 months ended FY '25 Earnings Call. Joining us on the call today from the management team is Mr. Vipin Agarwal, Chief Financial Officer. We will commence the call with the opening thoughts from the management, post which we will open the forum for Q&A round, where the management will be glad to respond to any queries that you may have. Before we go on to the main call, I would like to read the standard disclaimer. There may be forward-looking statements about the company and the subsidiaries, which are based on the belief, opinions and expectations of the company's management as on the date of this call. The company do not assume any obligation to update their forward-looking statements if those beliefs, opinions, expectations or other circumstances should change. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Consequently, listeners should not place any undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. With this, I will hand over the call to Mr. Vipin Agarwal, Chief Financial Officer, to take it forward. Over to you, Vipin, sir.

Good afternoon, everyone. I'm delighted to welcome you all to the Q3 and 9 months FY '25 earnings call of Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited. We truly appreciate your time and -- as we review our company's performance, key achievements and strategic outlook. Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited has solidified its leadership in bitumen logistics by specifically investing in fleet expansion, storage infrastructure and supply chain optimization. With INR500 crores deployed in shipping assets, the company has built a robust value chain that enhances cost efficiency and ensures uninterrupted supply. Management remains confident in sustaining margins despite market volatility, attributing stability to its backward integration and efficient sourcing from UAE and Oman. The company's growing PSU engagement now contributing nearly 20% of revenue, along with its 40,000 metric ton storage terminal coming up at new Mangalore port, strengthens its logistics network, which will generate revenue of around $2 million. Company has inducted its 11th vessel MT AQUILO with a carrying capacity of 11,500, expanding its fleet under AICL overseas as well LLC to 11 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 1,14,000 metric tons approximately. Also, secured a project from HPCL to supply 49,000 metric tons of VG30 and 9,000 metric tons of VG40 bitumen with a total billable value of approximately INR255 crores. As and when the company feels, we will be acquiring more vessels and more acquisition into terminals. India's bitumen consumption is projected to rise by approximately 14% in this fiscal year 2024-'25, reaching an estimated 10 million tons. The surge is driven by the government's focus on infrastructure development, including the construction of national highways and state projects. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has set a provisional target to construct 10,421 kilometers of national highways in FY '25, slightly lower than previous year achievement due to election-related delays in state clearance. Despite the challenges, the ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects are expected to sustain the demand for bitumen and related materials, positioning us to effectively support and contribute to India's expanding infrastructure landscape. I would now take you through the financial performance of the company. Let me now provide an overview of our financial performance for 9 months FY '25, compared to 9 months FY '24. Revenue for FY 9 months INR1,575.49 crores, reflecting a 16.80% increase from INR1,348.86 crores. Net income at INR85.15 crores registering a growth of 19.57%. Earnings per share INR56.93 up by 19.58%. EBITDA at INR154.47 crores, marking a 33.13% higher increase year-over-year rise. For Q3 FY '25, we delivered a strong performance. Revenue at INR542.11 crores, up 11.05% from INR 488.18 crores. EBITDA at INR55.76 crores, reflecting a 23.2% increase from INR45.24 crores. Earnings per share stood at INR18.52. These numbers are a testament to our focused execution, operational efficiency and ability to meet growing market demand. I would now like to take you through our business and operational highlights for the 9 months. Volume, the company has recorded a sales of approximately 350,000 tons of bitumen analyzed products, reflecting a notable 20.23% growth from -- approximately 292,000 metric tons in the 9 months last year. The ancillary Infra segment, which accounts for over 75% of company's business recorded a 13.46% revenue growth in 9 months FY '25 compared to 9 months FY '24. Company has inducted the 11th vessel MT AQUILO with a carrying capacity of 11,500 metric tons, expanding the fleet to 11 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 1,13,500. We also secured a project from HPCL to supply 49,000 metric ton of VG30 and 9,000 metric ton of VG40 with a total billable value of INR 255crores. Going forward, I would like to take you through the strategic outlook for the company. Company has targeted around 20% year-on-year growth in both revenue and volume. However, election delays in states, impacted the phase of infrastructure execution, leading to an expected growth of around 15% instead, aiming for a 20% CAGR in NPS in line with our historical growth. ROCE and ROE guidance plans to maintain a healthy ROCE and ROI of approximately 20%, consistent with previous years. The Indian bitumen market is expected to reach $6.8 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4% from 2023. Growth is driven by major infrastructure initiatives such as Bharatmala Pariyojana and PMGSY. In 2023, bitumen imports surged by 31% to 3.42 million tons, the highest since 2012, reflecting increased demand for road construction. The industry is shifting toward sustainable practices and modified bitumen products to meet future needs. I would now like to take questions, if any.

First question is from the line of Yash Kukreja from Equitree Capital.

Sir my first question is our asset base has increased by INR184 crores Q-o-Q and also our liabilities have also gone up by INR150 crores. So out of this INR184 crores, I am assuming INR60 crores will be for vessel, INR40 crores will be for the storage terminal. What is the remaining INR84 crores for? And also what will be the debt position by March '25?

Thank you for your question. The debt has generally increased due to vessel acquisition. And on the terminal side, there is no debt increase as on date. And by FY '25, we assume the debt to be increased by approximately INR100 crores.

And sir, my second question is, do we stick to our guidance of doing volume of 6 lakh tons with EBITDA of INR3,900 per ton EBITDA in FY '25?

Yes. You mean to say for EBITDA per ton?

Yes.

Yes, we are sticking to that level of EBITDA per ton approximately near -- between INR3,800 to INR3,900. And as informed in my opening remarks, we are targeting 6 lakh tons. However, due to the clearance from various projects due to elections, central elections and government, other state elections, we may reach somewhere near the targeted metric tons or maybe a growth of around 10% to 15% from last year.

And my last question is, sir, as we look ahead, what will be our primary focus? Like will it be enhancing EBITDA per ton or driving the volume growth? So this question is, as we get more contracts from BPCL and HPCL now, so how do we plan to approach such opportunities? Like are we willing to accept lower margins for higher volumes? Or do we prioritize margin projection, now?

It would be a mix of both the things. But of course, EBITDA margins, as you are seeing the growth for the last few years, it is always on the higher side. So we -- our primary target would be increasing the EBITDA margins as well. But keeping in mind the volume growth -- keeping in mind the volume, we would try to balance both the sides.

Next question is from the line of Dhananjay Mishra from Sunidhi Securities.

Sir, just to -- if you have already indicated the volume for this financial year is close to 6 lakh tons.

That was already in the previous call.

Yes. So in next year, I think you have in your initial remarks guided for 20% growth in volume. Is that correct?

Sorry, can you just come back again, please? Sorry?

When we'll talk about next financial year in terms of volume growth that you are envisaging, can we expect 20% growth going forward into FY '26 also?

Yes, that is always the target of -- for the company by growing at least at 20%. But if you see the past few years, we have maintained a growth percentage in terms of volume between 15% to 20%, which we target even in the future.

Just to get a sense because now you see that the budget, the last financial year FY '25, which we are ending is not that good in terms of major awards for the infrastructure sector and especially roads. But we have heard in the recent con calls, which has been done by a couple of large road players, they have hinted that by March, the government is going to come up with almost -- NHAI will come up with INR1,50,000 crores worth of order announcements, awarding of orders. And we have seen lull for last 6 months to 9 months, but next 1 month or 2 months before March, they are talking about this large number and the similar trend is expected in FY '26. So your take in terms of order awarding, not only from NHAI, but maybe from a couple of state governments. What is your sense on that will be really helpful?

As informed, we are in line with the growth volume that we have projected. But yes, what you are mentioning is totally true. There are numerous projects which are already in pipeline, which have already been allotted and which are going to be allotted in the next few months. And considering all these projects which may exhibit in the next financial year, we may target a higher volume. In that sense, your question and the information that you have is totally true that there will be more projects that would be allotted in the next few months, which may result in higher volumes in the next financial year.

And sir, just one fundamental question there because when we see this number of expressways, which have been recently built up like this Nagpurwala, some were they have used the cemented one and not the coal tar based. So -- and then we are also hearing a lot more expressways, which are going to be built up in the immediate future, even Maharashtra is talking about 2, 3 larger expressway projects with even J. Kumar Infra talked about in the recent con call. So how are we going to tackle this fundamental question that instead of coal tar, if they use more-and-more cemented roads in expressways, how it will impact our business? Just your sense on that.

Yes. I have been answering this question even in the past few con calls. There are only a few projects that the government has allotted that are going -- that has been built on concrete. Most of the new projects are all bitumen. They are not concrete. They are all flexible. So there is no major reject work that are happening for NHAI. Maybe some state inside cities, they may be doing the concrete, but all the major highways are still flexible, which is bitumen.

And can we expect a similar margin run rate between INR3,800 to INR4,000 per ton EBITDA even in the next financial year?

Yes.

And sir, any more CapEx program that is there because I think the major CapEx that you do is towards acquiring vessels, which support your business. We are already at 11 vessels now.

In my opening remarks, I have highlighted that we would be going forward with any opportunity that we will be getting in terms of maybe setting up another terminal or vessel acquisition.

So what is the CapEx guidance for next financial year to support this volume growth?

Maybe around INR100 crores, INR150 crores as we have indicated even in the past.

And what is the typical working capital cycle? Will we operate with a similar working capital cycle? Or is there any scope for further improvement?

Maybe 10%, 15%, 20% maybe more working capital required to achieve more volumes.

But in terms of days, the cycle is going to be the same what we are right now.

Right. The cycle should improve.

Next question is from the line of Mudit Jain from Hem Securities.

So sir, my question was what is the realization value of bitumen in Q3 FY '25 compared to last year? And what is our expectation for bitumen prices going forward?

See, the realization value this year -- last year, entire it was around 43,000-odd. And this year, 9 months, it is around 45,000 tons. A difference of around INR1,500 per metric ton in terms of realization value.

And sir, what is your expectation going forward?

It should remain at this level.

45,000.

Yes. And 9 months we have in front of us because we have the results. Next quarter, it should be around the same level as there is no major volatility in the prices.

And sir, the margins in our chartering business and vessel operating business have fallen both sequentially and year-on-year basis. So any specific reason for that?

There were a few vessels that were in dry dock. Due to that, there are times when there are some vessels which have to do the dry docks. They don't operate in that quarter. So maybe that effect comes once in 2 years. Vessels that are under repairing because of some cyclone -- due to some cyclone repairs.

Sir, what are the sustainable margins in this segment, the chartering business and the vessel operating business?

20%, which has always been in the past.

20% in both the segments?

In the chartering.

Chartering business. Okay, sir. Sir, what is the current order book status?

Sorry?

What is the current order book status, sir?

We declared HPCL, BPCL, that is the major order book that we have. Rest of the sales is not order-based. It is a continuous business.

And sir, in one of the previous con calls, you mentioned that we would like to double the volumes in the next 3 years. So will it be fair to assume that FY '28 volumes will be double of what we'll achieve in FY '25?

We assume that we should be able to double the volumes as we have indicated in the past few calls. Going forward with the demand that we expect in the coming 2 years, 3 years, definitely, we expect the volumes to be doubled. And subject to the favorable conditions even from the government side wherein funds are available to -- in the state and from the NHAI and projects are executed in the manner they have been awarded.

Next question is from the line of Sangeeta from Cogito.

So sir, one question I had was that there was some concern post the budget that the allocations toward roads were slowing down. Is that likely to impact the opportunity for us? Or is there enough opportunity from whatever states may be doing? If you could just explain that landscape?

I'm just so sorry, can you just repeat the question again, please?

Yes. My question is that in the budget this time, we saw that the allocation for roads had not gone up that much. Is that likely to be a constraint for our growth in any way going forward?

No, thank you. I don't think any constraint for the growth in terms of what the allocation has been done by the government because there are already enough projects that has been in the pipeline and which are already under execution. So we are -- these -- whatever execution would be happening in the next financial year or the budgeted for the next financial year, those are yet to come. We are assuming the demand and the supply and the volume growth, assuming today's infrastructure projects that have already been allotted. But yes, all this is subject to the payment that the government, different state bodies or the central government makes towards these projects. So that is very important in terms of volume when we are considering, which hopefully should be favorable. There should not be a major constraint, maybe a 5%, 10% here and there. But even the state and the center wants to complete all the projects that they have allotted.

And do you see any increased activities in terms of projects being undertaken by the states? There are a lot of state roads and smaller roads, et cetera, also which need to be constructed over and above highways. So is there any activity happening on that side?

There are activities happening, states which are already having good amount of funds at their disposal. They are definitely, they are doing. Other states, maybe they have some plans of maybe arranging the funds and then doing small roads, having to say the rural roads. But definitely, they are all working on all fronts because the center's focus is on the infrastructure. Even the states are focusing on joining all the roads within the state to smaller villages as well.

Sir, your role comes in largely when we are looking at imported bitumen. So recently, we've heard some news about some of the companies like BP, HP, et cetera, announcing increase in their bitumen supply, right? They're getting into more bitumen projects. Again, how does that impact you? Or will we remain a net importer for quite some time to come?

Ma'am, I am not able to connect to your questions because there is on and off breakage in the question that you have asked.

One second. Let me just try. So sir, my question is that BPCL and HPCL did recently announce they're going to be increasing some capacity for bitumen. Does that impact your business in any way?

No. I have not heard a major increase in the production from their side, but there are different plans by the refinery wherein they would be, in fact, taking products from other importers on the higher side than the product producing themselves.

I see. And one last question. We saw -- in the third quarter, we saw a big increase in depreciation, which kind of eat away into the improvement in EBITDA that we had seen. Is that because of the new ship coming on to the books and it's not fully utilized? And are we likely to, therefore, see this balancing out in the quarters to come?

So the depreciation is basically from the vessel side only, but it is on a quarter-to-quarter basis only. There is no new vessels that are depreciated in the last quarter, except for the bigger one, which was acquired last year. And I think 9 months is what it has been depreciated toward.

So was that vessel fully utilized in the third quarter?

Yes, yes. The vessel has been utilized, yes.

The vessel has been utilized.

Yes.

So then why is it that we actually did not see the improvement in EBITDA coming down to the PBT level in the third quarter?

As I mentioned a few minutes back, there was a dry dock of some other vessels, which was going on those vessels are not in use.

Next question is from the line of Suyash Bhave from Wealth Guardian.

Sir, I wanted to speak a bit about volumes and demand. So historically, H2 has been our -- Q3, Q4 have been our peak quarters. But in this year, in Q1 and Q2, we had a very good volume growth on a Y-o-Y basis as probably some of the best quarter volume growth we had in Q1 and Q2. But in Q3, we had a volume degrowth. This is supposed to be our peak quarter. So can you give an insight about that?

Yes. See, first half is basically, as mentioned, we have been supplying to PSUs as well. So that additional volumes may have reflected in the growth of volumes. But the third quarter there has been improvement. A little bit of quantity is there in this one thing. There is an increase by at least some percentage in the third quarter due to the elections going on, which resulted in lower road construction.

Sir, on the shipping side, on an average, after how much time period does a ship has to go into dry dock and what kind of maintenance or repair expense that will...

Actually, over-oiling of the vessel, which usually happens between anywhere after 2 years and within 3 years.

So -- and what kind of expense do we have maybe as a percentage of the capital cost of the vessel? Is there any trend as such for that?

Bigger vessels may have a lower percentage of CapEx compared to smaller vessels, which -- who is repairing is on a higher side. That's why we are primarily focusing on acquiring a bigger size vessels of nearly 10,000 to 13,000, which results in a higher margins. And even in terms of DD, it is -- in terms of percentage, the CapEx is lower and we do the dry dock.

Sir, just one last question. We -- if you don't count our latest Mangalore terminal, we have around 30,000 metric ton of all India storage capacity, so this storage terminal at Mangalore, I think it's 40,000 metric tons. So any insight as to why more than half of our future storage capacity will be at one port?

Yes. We are actually focusing on 2 things. It is a terminal not only for our consumption. It is a full terminal approximately 40,000 tons, wherein we will be storing our products and balance we plan to -- which will be in the second phase after starting the first phase, wherein around 20%, 25% of storage will be used for our own consumption, wherein the lease tank that we have today, we will be leaving that tank and utilizing our own storage tank and the balance 70% to 75%, we plan to lease it further. So that is a part of further business in the backward integration or even the -- our intention -- we will be leasing the tanks, which we -- with the company will not be using it. Totally, terminal business wherein we'll be leasing the tank as well.

Next question is from the line of Dhananjay Mishra from Sunidhi Securities.

Just a follow-up question Sir, if we see the last 9 months, we have done closer to rounding it of closer to INR1,570 crores or INR1,600 crores top line, assuming this INR45,000 realization on the bitumen. And if you do 6 lakh volume, we are expecting close to INR2,700 crores top line. Is it something which is possible in these 3 months means we are asking rate is close to INR1,100 crores for this quarter. This is something which is doable?

Total turnover you mentioned?

6 lakh tons and average realization INR45,000.

9 months, what you mentioned? I think you mentioned higher number than.

Close to INR1,600. The first quarter was INR700 crores. Second was INR326 and this, December quarter was INR542.

31/12, the total turnover is around, yes, INR1,582.

Correct, close to INR1,600 crores. And if we assume 6 lakh volume and INR45,000 realization, we are talking about almost INR2,700 crores. So the asking rate for fourth quarter is close to INR1,100 crores.

Assuming that we will be considering completing 6 lakh tons, but maybe due to the ongoing government scenario in the last 2, 3 months, we may end up 10% to 15% from the last year's volume that we have done.

What was the volume last year, sir, FY '24?

FY '24, it was close to 5 lakh tons.

So we might be a little short to 6 lakh, maybe 570,000 or 530,000.

Our target is always higher than what we achieved.

So maybe we can work with 570,00-550,00 that is something which is realistic considering only 2 months are over?

Maybe. To put a number, you know it is all futuristic, so I can...

Yes, yes, I know. But just to get -- because we are almost completed 2 months, January, February is over.

Yes. We assume, yes, we can say around 10% easily because 9 months, we are at a growth of around 15%.

9 months, we have done 15% growth on last year numbers, right?

Hopefully, we assume that at least 15% or maybe 12%, we will be growing.

And sir, if we see purely from a cash flow or the working capital perspective, let's say, we do 7 million tons next year and maybe 8 million tons in FY '27, assuming that we maintain this 15%, 17% sort of growth -- sorry, 7 lakh tons and maybe 8 lakh tons, close to 15% to 17% sort of growth. And assuming that we get this INR3,900 crores to INR4,000 EBITDA, we will be generating almost INR600 crores cumulative EBITDA for next 2 years. And assuming that close to, let's say, INR100 crore tax payout, we will be left with INR500 crores sort of cumulative cash flow. And your interest cost is something that you can guide us. But even if I assume the current run rate, let's say, almost INR70 crores, INR75 crores goes for the interest cost will be close to INR400 crores-plus sort of cash flows, which will be free to us for doing CapEx or maybe for working capital. So even if we do, let's say, INR100 crores to INR125 crores CapEx for next 2 years, even we will be having the INR100 crores to INR150 crores cash, which will be available to support the working capital requirement. So can we work with an assumption that this INR400 crore debt is going to be the peaking debt for us for next 2 years? That is something which is possible?

See, as what numbers you are predicting, it looks good, but we are also reinvesting in the business, wherein if you see debtors are on the higher side because of the increase in volume, we are doing the CapEx as in Mangalore, we are doing. So it is all -- even we are putting money in the CapEx from our own pocket as well. So whatever the company is generating, we are already planning to put the -- we have the plan for CapEx. So it is not we will have the entire funds in -- at the disposal because we are already investing the money for the expansion of the company.

So what is your judgment in terms of debt for next 2 years? Because this year, probably we'll end up with INR400 crores. But what is your sense for next 2 years? That is something that you're envisaging because the calculation is showing that probably the internal accruals will be sufficient to fund the CapEx and the working capital requirement.

There is sufficient in doing the CapEx, but just not to hamper the cash flows. We always keep a mix and match of debt and equity because we -- if you see my debtors total my facilities that I have, I am not using in 100%. That is in the credit rating that has been given by CRISIL as well. So we have all the facilities intact in case of any requirement. Necessarily, we are not using in 100%. We may be using 50%, 60%, but the company is having -- keeping the disposable of working capital in case of any requirement.

So whatever differential will be there, that will be funded through debt. So probably, we might need another INR100 crores to INR150 crores debt that is something that...

Not necessarily, if the company is having enough CapEx or cash flows for the CapEx, we might not take any debt or a small debt maybe. And going forward, if you see after 2 years, the current debt will also be some of them repaid. So I think it should be near to the same level of 10% higher than what we are today.

That is what, sir, I am also of the opinion that probably this INR400 crore number should be the debt which will not materially go up in next 2 years' time, even if we grow 15% to 20%.

Yes.

Any other line of business that we are envisaging to?

Of course, we are focusing on the logistical advantage that we have and anything related to the logistical setup that the company set up, maybe as we have started Mangalore, some kind of similar CapEx we may look at, wherein you will be having your own terminal as we'll be having in Mangalore. So a few other places, we may take up that angle as well.

Next question is from the line of Tanvi Jain.

I just had 2 questions. One, I just want to understand, so this year, we received an order for approximately total 75,000 metric tons from BPCL and one order was from HPCL in December 2024. So even these 2 orders combined do not -- are less than the order that we had in hand from IOCL last year for 1,92,000 metric tons. So is there any decline in the order that we are receiving from these refineries? Because other than these orders, all our orders you've mentioned are as and when we receive them.

See, all the PSU orders are subject to their fulfillment. They are for a year, 1 year, which has an expiry date. So whatever last year's project they had allotted the LOI, that is being replaced by the current LOI that they have issued. Some of them are maybe extendable. So going next -- this year's LOI that we have received is extendable by 1 more year. So whatever orders that was declared in the last financial year that may have ended. That's why the new LOIs have been received from PSU.

No, I get that. So the LOIs, the orders -- the order quantity has declined from the last year. However, our volume guidance has increased by 20% year-on-year. So how do we look at that? Is that still achievable despite such orders getting reduced from these refineries?

We don't target anything. This is the PSU orders. PSU orders is what is reflecting in the growth in terms of additional volumes maybe. But we -- if you see in the past, even without the PSUs, we are able to maintain our volume growth.

And just one more question. Sir, how much share -- so earlier, you guided that your share from owned vessels would gradually go up to 75% to 80%. So what is the...

Actually, we will be trying to achieve that percentage. But I assume 60%, 65% would be a good number in terms of getting the product through your own vessels because we have 4 months of rainy season wherein we cannot do much business in India.

So that is a sustainable number going forward. And currently, what is -- at what percentage we are at in terms of getting the materials from our own vessels?

We are near to -- between 50% to 60% as of now as well.

Next question is from the line of Tejas Khandelwal from Prudent Equity.

Yes. So sir, my first question is on depreciation side. So the company incurred around INR16 crores in depreciation in last quarter, so which is nearly 50% jump from previous quarter. So why there is a sudden jump if you have not depreciated the latest vessel?

We have depreciated, I said.

You have depreciated the latest vessel, which is 11,500 tons, right?

No, no. 11,500 is not depreciated because this is in the fourth quarter.

So what depreciation can we expect in fourth quarter?

There is only 1 vessel that we are adding, that too will be starting now. So a month, maybe a month after the -- is put to use, the respective period in which the vessel is put to use and the year has ended. So maybe a month of depreciation addition.

Can I -- may I know what is the cost of the vessel, 11th vessel?

It is around 14 million.

14 million.

Yes.

And my second question is on the volume side. So you have cut the guidance from 6,000 -- 6 lakh tons to 5,50,000 tons. But in the latest press release, you have maintained the volume guidance of 20%. So why is that, sir?

See, we are focusing on that percentage, but we assume we have not completed the full-year-end. And maybe in March, we will be doing very good volumes. A few percentage here and there, we always be -- maybe it can go a few percent higher, a few percentage lower. But we are not sure that we will not be able to complete at all because there is 1 more month to go yet.

So are you confident, right, we will do above 5,80,000 tons or 5,70,000 tons, let's say?

See, 9 months, we are at around 15%. So I assume at least going by this percentage, we should be able to at least do 10% to 15% from last year.

And my another question is on EBITDA per ton side. So in first 9 months, EBITDA per ton is already about INR4,200. So are you still maintaining the full-year EBITDA per ton guidance of INR3,900, or do you see any room for growth in that?

No, I think it should be at the same level of 9 months, it is around INR4,200 -- it should be around INR4,200 to INR4,300.

And sir, another question is on the tax rate side. So what tax rate should we expect at blended level next year because there are discussions around the potential corporate tax increase in the UAE, right?

There is no clarity as such for this financial year, even in UAE in terms of corporate tax. So we assume the blended tax percentage to be in line with last year.

Okay, sir. And sir, what gross debt level we can expect in next year in FY '26?

I would not be able to comment on that number as of now for '26.

But will you be able to give the guidance -- give the volume guidance for FY '26?

No, not yet. For volume, we will be giving in after the first year -- the financial year con call maybe.

Next question is from the line of Mohit from Hem Securities.

On the industrial side, I wanted to understand a bit more about the industrial outlook. Like this year was a severe slowdown as far as highways was concerned, highway ordering was concerned. So in the next 1 year to 2 years, what will be the growth triggers for the company for the industry? Are we also eyeing something apart from the highways, maybe because Bharatmala or the highways in the other sense are kind of wet jitry this year? So are we eyeing more projects from the government or any new announcements? How are we seeing the next 1 year to 2 years in terms of growth of the industry as such?

Thank you so much. Next 2 years, we assume that there will be a lot of infrastructure projects, but we are not only focusing on NHAI. We are supplying to all the departments, all the state governments, which are giving work orders for making roads, maybe PMGSY, rural roads or RMB. We are supplying to all the departments. It is not necessarily that we are supplying to only NHAI. We are still supplying to all the states and highways. And going forward, with the execution of more-and-more infrastructure work, the demand of bitumen is presumed to go to 12 million by maybe FY '27. Assuming that growth, we should be ending up anywhere between year-on-year growth of around 20% or 22%.

In your investor presentation, I also saw that India -- I mean, like the bitumen consumption is lowest in India as compared to other countries like China and U.S. for road. Do you see it improving? Or is it something which is static in nature? And since the roads are built, it is not meant to be changed that much. I mean what is the outlook on the bitumen consumption as far as roads are concerned?

Every country is having their own criteria for making the roads. India is following a standard process. China and U.S., they have a different process. But every road consumption bitumen is also depending upon what is the width of that road, what is -- what do you say, depth in terms of thickness of that road. So all these also contribute to the requirement of a particular bitumen in the making of 1 kilometer. But going -- in the current scenario, India is consuming more-and-more bitumen with the new awards of tenders.

So the bitumen import growth trajectory seems to be stronger as we move ahead in the years 2026 and 2027, you mean to say, right?

Because that is the reason even all the PSUs are taking products from private players like us, those people -- any companies who are importing because they are not increasing their production to the level the India's total demand for bitumen is heading towards.

As one of the participants earlier asked that some NHAIs are using cement, but you said that bitumen is...

We have addressed this question in multiple times even in the past. All the highways cannot be built with concrete. Most of the India's today's work orders or the works that have been allotted are all flexible. Most of them are flexible. Flexible means bitumen growth.

Next question is from the line of Mohammed Muzaffaruddin, who is an individual investor.

Sir, I'm a retail investor in Agarwal Industrial Corporation. Sir, I have a general question that where does the company see itself in the next 5 years, 6 years? And what are the initiatives and the strategic priorities it sees for its long-term growth? And when we can see that our top line will be $1 billion or something in the range?

Thank you for your question. A very futuristic question that you have asked. We are in line with the volume projections that we have been doing. Maybe in the next 2 years, 3 years, we would be targeting around INR4,000 crores to INR5,000 crores of top line with additional -- maybe additional volumes or top line coming from a few other products that we may plan to do going forward in the same line of business. In the next few years, we see ourselves around a level of $600 million to $700 million of top line.

And if may I ask, so at that level of top line, where do you see our bottom line? Like where do you see the PAT at those kind of...

If we are doing our volumes, double the volume, our PAT would also be double.

As there are no further questions from the participants, I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Astha Jain from Hem Securities for the closing comments.

Thank you. On behalf of Hem Securities Limited, I thank Agrawal Industrial Corporation Limited team for giving the time we spend on this call and responding all the queries in a detailed way. I would also like to thank all the participants for joining this call. Now I would like to hand over the call to moderator for the closing remarks.

Thank you. On behalf of Hem Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.