AGCO Corporation (AGCO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. Thanks, everyone. We're moving along here. So happy to have the guys from AGCO with us today. Directly to my left, Damon Audia, who's the CFO. To his left, Greg Peterson, who's run IR for -- who does a great job running IR.

So maybe just -- we'll start kind of more high level, Damon, and set the stage on AGCO being it founded as effectively a roll-up of a number of tractor brands with a heavy presence in Europe. Some of the household names in the U.S. are 150-plus year-old companies. AGCO is a 35-year-old company, so maybe not on as many radars. So maybe just start at a high level in terms of how the company has grown over time and what you see as the -- we'll start there in terms of where the company sits.

Sure, no problem. So as you said, Tim, AGCO is a 35-year-old company. We are the largest pure-play ag company in the industry. So last year, we did just over $10 billion in ag revenue. We go to market from an equipment side under 3 primary brands. So we have our Fendt brand, which is our premium or think of that as the best of the best. And then we have 2 more volume-orientated brands under Valtra and Massey Ferguson. So we have 3 major equipment brands. And then we have a technology portfolio, which we sell both to 100-plus other OEMs as well as through a separate distribution channel, a retrofit channel, and we go to that market under the PTx brands. So Precision Technologies multiplied, which would include both the legacy Precision Planting brand as well as our joint venture with Trimble called PTx Trimble, so under those equipment brands in that technology brand, last year, we delivered an operating margin of around 7.7% with an industry is around 85% of the mid-cycle. We delivered 7.7%, which was about double or almost double the last time we were at that point in the cycle. And we did that through an array of portfolio changes and a change in our strategy, which is really based on 3 cornerstones: one, which is growing our Fendt business in North and South America. So we've created a full line in the Fendt brand, which legacy was just more of a tractor portfolio. So added a combine, added a sprayer, added a planter, and we've begun to bring that into North America and South America and roll that out through an array of dealer networks. And we've seen good growth in market share with Fendt in both of those regions, and we had our largest market share growth ever in North America last year across our portfolio, and we'll touch on that maybe a little bit later. But we have Fendt becoming a global brand. We have that PTx portfolio I touched on. So with the joint venture with Trimble, last year, we had around $860 million in revenue under the PTx technology. We see that growing to around $2 billion by 2029 between both the OEM sales as well as that retrofit channel sales. And then we have our parts business, which has been enhanced by farmer core, and we'll probably touch on that a little bit later, but we see our parts business growing from around $1.9 billion up to $2.3 billion by 2029. So all 3 of those together have really been delivering the mid-cycle margins improvement. Last year, that [ 7.7 ], driven by all of those performing exceptionally well. And longer term, we see those 3 growth engines, coupled with our cost savings initiatives, coupled with the portfolio changes that we've made, delivering a mid-cycle operating margin of somewhere in the range of 14% to 15% by 2029.

And as you think about the kind of the regional contribution and getting to those margins, can you maybe just give us some help in terms of the competitive positioning of AGCO, Europe being your largest market, but maybe talk to the regional dynamics that give rise to the margin dynamics in those 3 regions. I assume market share being a big contributor, but maybe just talk to your competitor positioning?

Yes, sure, absolutely. So as you allude to, so about 60% of our business comes from Europe. That is by far our strongest market. It's where we have the best share. Our 3 brands there, Fendt is an industry leader, largest share in many parts of Western Europe, but also very strong presence with our Valtra brand as well as our Massey Ferguson brand. Europe is a critical market for us in a lot of different ways. A, it's because of our base and our strong market share, but also from a stability standpoint. Again, when you look at the 3 major regions that we play in, Europe tends to be the most stable. Western European farmers usually get around 50% of their income through subsidies. Those farmers usually have better crop diversity, so grain diversity, and there's also a higher percentage of livestock and dairy in the European farm base. And so because of that crop diversity and the mixture between livestock and dairy coupled with subsidies, you tend to see that market less volatile. So the order patterns tend to be more consistent there. When you look at our business, our European region has usually delivered mid-teens margins even last year, well below mid-cycle. Europe delivered around a 15% margin. So we see that market staying relatively stable. We still see good growth opportunities. Fendt has done quite well in growing share in Europe despite its already strong presence. But that's sort of the innovation engine for us from an equipment standpoint is what you see coming out of Fendt starting in Europe and then moving into other parts of the world. So a strong part of our business, very stable part of our business. Our growth opportunities sit more here in North America and South America. So if I start with South America, more of an emerging market. As I said, it's around a little under 15% of our business there. We see tremendous growth potential heavily in Fendt. So we've had a strong presence in South America for years with Massey Ferguson and Valtra. But as that CERRADO region or the Mato Grosso part of the state in Brazil has really started to grow, and if you recall, Cerrado does 2 to 3 plantings per year. And so you have a very high use, high big farms there, and that's where Fendt plays quite well because Fendt is the most efficient tractors in the market. The Momentum planter does infield adjustments versus the competitors. So really allowing the farmers to maximize their productivity and maximize their efficiencies. So Fendt plays very well in that Cerrado region, and we're seeing good growth there as we start to roll the Fendt brand out there. So today, the market share for AGCO overall is good, say, around 30% from a tractor standpoint. But if I look about Fendt and Cerrado, we see significant opportunities to grow the brand there. That market right now is probably -- is a little bit more challenged than the rest. There's not a lot of subsidies that go into the Brazilian market. And so farmers there are driven more by commodity costs. Currency, the real versus the dollar and how trade dynamics are affecting them as a global exporter. And so what we've seen in the South American market last year is that large ag part of the market really has not performed well because of all the trade uncertainty, because of low commodity prices, you haven't quite seen that international demand for Brazil yet. Longer term, we know they're continuing to grow. They're the only -- really the only country that's adding arable land. And as grain demand continues to increase longer term, we know that Brazil is a critical market to help service those needs. So lots of opportunity, lots of optimism for us for South America long term, but current industry environment is a little bit lower, but hopefully recovering in the back half of the year as we start to see the election and some of the stimulus that we would expect to occur during an election year. North America is also a tremendous opportunity for us. As again, we said as we're bringing Fendt into this market. We're rolling out our dealer network here. It's of the 3 regions, it's the area we have the lowest level of large ag market share. When we think about bringing the Fendt products, coupled with our Massey Ferguson products here, we see significant opportunity to grow share. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we had our largest share growth ever in North America last year, and it's really facilitated by several things. One is we talk about the Fendt products. So better-performing products, more fuel efficient than the competitors. So farmers who are looking at minimizing their outflows, Fendt products run at -- have better fuel efficiency. So you're saving on diesel fuel. We offer the best warranty in the industry. We call it the Gold Star warranty here in North America. So that's 3 years bumper to bumper. So if anything goes wrong with that tractor, that combine, that dealer is going to bring you a loaner and we cover it for 3 years versus the industry of 2. Industry-leading parts and service fill rates in North America and in Europe by third-party measurement. So again, if that machine goes down, you have the best fill rates in the industry, hopefully getting you back up and running. And then one thing that we introduced last year, which is different than our competitors is FarmerCore. So FarmerCore think of that as the old philosophy of the mall where you used to have to go to the mall, these big bays. FarmerCore is more like Amazon. So how do we bring the service to you? And with our dealer network that we're rolling out in North America, we've shown them with our own company how FarmerCore where we can do 85% of the parts and service or 85% of the service on the farm. So for that farmer who no longer has to bring his or her combine to the dealership, we're out there with a mobile truck, with the crane doing 85% of the work on the farm, making it easier for the farmer, better for that dealer because their absorption costs have gone down because they're building a smaller store. They're covering more white space with those mobile trucks, and it's better for AGCO because with those connected machines, we're getting better parts revenue for that dealer to do the service on the farm. So we've seen great traction with that. And when you look at FarmerCore, the quality of the products, we saw the highest Net Promoter Score we've ever had. So how likely are you to vote for in that case, we've seen the highest level. And when we look at that Net Promoter Score FarmerCore, the products that Fendt has brought to the table, coupled with the strength of our Massey Ferguson brand, we feel very good about the traction that we've gained here in North America. When I looked at that market share, it was both Massey and Fendt, and it was across the portfolio. It wasn't like it was one product. It was planters, sprayers, tractors. So we're seeing good momentum between Net Promoter with what we're doing with the dealers, how we're helping the farmers and what we're bringing to the table, coupled with FarmerCore to really, I think, create a differentiated value proposition for the farmers here in North America.

So the FarmerCore is almost like -- I think of the legacy dealer base, a lot of the bigger, stronger AGCO dealers were and/or are Cat dealers. And a lot of those, you see a lot of Cat service shops running around on wheels, a similar concept. It's something that they're certainly [indiscernible].

Yes, very similar concept. And what it allows us as we're rolling out the Fendt brand specifically is rather than building new stores, how do you leverage parts depots and mobile trucks to cover a larger white space -- rather than having to have an infrastructure, a large store every 45 miles, how do you have them 100 miles apart and let this mobile truck cover the white space more effectively. That way, if you need all of your service trucks on the east side of your store or the west side, you're able to cover a larger area. And more importantly, for that dealer is it takes their investment cost down. So you're looking at this market here in North America that dealer is trying to manage his or her absorption through parts and service. And with the FarmerCore model, we've shown them they can deliver higher absorption with the FarmerCore model versus the more historical larger brick-and-mortar stores, which helps improve their profitability, especially in these down years.

Just sticking on North America, what do you make of your -- the largest -- by far, the largest player in the industry have recently cited some green shoots. I'm not sure that view is shared by everyone, but what's your kind of thoughts or perspective on that in terms of large ag green shoots?

So we've been -- we communicated, I think, like the others that we do believe '26 will be the trough year here in North America. We have the industry down -- large ag down around 15%. So it will be another challenging year. I think the way I would look at it is things are not getting worse. If we look at 2025, every quarter, there was a new surprise, things tend to get a little bit worse. When we look at our dealer inventories in the fourth quarter, we were able to reduce the level of dealer inventories. Pricing in North America was better than what I had expected and what we had communicated. Market share came in stronger. So we're seeing some good momentum. Order boards look good for North America. I think at this point, we're sort of seeing things stabilize. I'm not sure I would say they're getting significantly better. They're just not getting worse in relative to how we've been over the last year. That's probably not a bad place to be right now.

Yes. One more, just more kind of cycle question. If you look -- if you pull up a long-term chart in Europe, just look at tractor registration -- high horsepower tractor sales over time, the line is just steadily lower. I think underneath that, though, there's been ongoing growth in terms of just amount of horsepower tied to farm consolidation. So maybe talk to the market from a unit, but also underlying profitability. Meaning does the market necessarily get -- as you see those the tractor and just horsepower increase, kind of speak to what that means from a profitability standpoint, kind of 2 separate points.

Yes. So I -- you are seeing the number of units come down over time as farms tend to consolidate. Now Europe, you generally have more family. You generally have smaller farms versus the U.S. or versus Europe or versus South America, excuse me. That will likely continue to be the case, but you are sort of seeing the size of the farms grow there. For us, though, it's offsetting that with technology. When you look at the average price of a tractor today versus, say, 5 or 10 years ago, given the level of technology that we've added, that's in theory, sort of helping offset some of that volume decline that you would just see as the farms become larger and farmers tend to upgrade to larger equipment. The other strength for AGCO is we usually do much better from a profitability standpoint with the larger equipment versus that medium or that low horsepower type equipment.

Fendt market share as you move higher up becomes...

Yes, Fendt's done exceptionally well the last couple of years with its new product introductions, gaining share in some of the Western European markets and has done quite well over last several years with the new Fendt 700, which we introduced 1.5 years ago, again, for those farmers who are looking for productivity, had a smaller engine. So it gave them better fuel efficiency, but didn't compromise on the power or the torque. So it let them do all the same things they need to do, but with a smaller engine, so driving better profitability to them without compromising the quality of the work product they were getting with that tractor. So again, Fendt tends to be an innovation leader from a technology standpoint, and it just continues each generation of products come out, push it to a new level for there.

Yes. Maybe one more then before we move on, just on Brazil. You're calling for kind of a flattish market in '26. I think some of your peers are maybe a little bit more cautious. Maybe just highlight there in terms of what you're seeing and hearing from dealers.

Sure. I think we have the industry being flat. I think as we tried to elaborate on our call, we do see the first half of the year being quite challenged. When we look at sort of what we view the industry versus maybe the competitors, we've looked at our data analytics models. And historically, in the year that there is an election, there's usually stimulus that is put into the ag market to drive sort of favorable outcomes in the election. So our flat assumes that there is some sort of a stimulus in the back half of the year. As we've talked to the teams down in South America, we expect interest rates to start coming down, hopefully here in March, some sort of a stimulus in the back half of the year. And I think if we listen to the competitors who said they've taken a very conservative view of the world, I'm not sure they've necessarily reflected that stimulus. So I think that's probably the delta between our outlook and theirs is whether something does happen or not.

Yes. But needless to say, a market that can move and often does move on a dime relative to the other...

Yes, it can move very quickly here. And obviously, between currency, commodity prices, global demand, things can move quite quickly in Brazil.

Yes. Maybe shift to margins. It's been a good story for AGCO in recent years. And you outlined a mid-cycle margin target of getting to kind of 14%, 15%. You've gotten to that level in absolute terms once before. So I think there's some skepticism that we've heard from investors. So maybe speak to what some of the key drivers are in terms of driving that higher structural profitability.

Yes, we feel good. I mean our target is 14% to 15% adjusted operating margin by 2029. And maybe I'll just walk you through the different components here. So if I look at our -- I'll use our outlook right now, I'll use that 7.5% to 8% adjusted operating margin. So I'll use 8% because the math is easier for me. So we're sitting at around 85%, 86% on mid-cycle. The 29% is a mid-cycle target. So to go from 85% to mid-cycle, that would add around 150 basis points just from the overall industry lift. So that's the industry dynamic. It's not anything unique to AGCO, it's all of us will get that. Then there's 3 specific things that we're doing or have done that will take us up to that 14% to 15%. One is the portfolio change that we've already executed. So in the last 1.5 years, there's been 2 significant changes to our portfolio. One is we did the joint venture with Trimble. So we now have PTx Trimble where we've acquired 85% of that. When you look at that business, it runs at around a 30% EBITDA margin. And so when that moves back up to mid-cycle that's accretive to our margins. At the same time, we divested our Grain & Protein business late last year. So that was a single-digit margin business, relatively low growth. So when you look at us at mid-cycle, those 2 together, the addition of PTx Trimble, the elimination of Grain & Protein, that adds around 150 basis points to our margin at mid-cycle. So those 2 are already done. We just need the industry to sort of pick it up, pick back up to mid-cycle, and that will deliver margin enhancement there. The second one is the restructuring actions that we've done. So for the last year, 1.5 years, we've been talking about significant headcount restructuring, offshoring some of our work, outsourcing some of our work and really pushing AI throughout our portfolio of products, both in customer and revenue generation, but also in cost and productivity. When you look at those things together, we said by the end of '26, we would be run rate savings somewhere in the range of $175 million to $200 million of cost savings. At the end of 2025, I said we were already run rating $190 million. So we're very much in line with what our plan was. This year, we'll save around $40 million to $60 million of incremental savings year-over-year, but because a lot of that cost started in the fourth quarter, the run rate will probably be around $200 million. So I'm very good in delivering my cost savings. Most of this is coming out of SG&A. So think about $200 million of cost savings run rating by the end of this year that delivers about another 150 basis points of margin enhancement at mid-cycle. And then the third bucket is those 3 growth initiatives. So Fendt going up to about $1.7 billion by 2029, parts growing from $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion and then the PTx portfolio getting to around $2 billion by 2029. Those 3 growth levers together will deliver another 150 basis points to 200 basis points of margin. So when you stack those 3 on top of the industry, you kind of get into that 14% to 15% range.

Got it. Got it. Certainly not impacting the longer term. But in more near term, given the tariffs being a significant factor for you, obviously, a lot of potentially moving pieces there. What are you seeing? What -- did the IEEPA ruling, is that something that you can potentially go after refunds? Where do you sit on that?

Yes. So the ruling a couple of weeks ago has definitely created a little bit more of a dynamic situation. We'll need to see whether we're able to recover any of that. Obviously, we're still going through the analysis of the new 15% global tariff, the rollback of the IEEPA tariffs and what that means for us. I think, generally speaking, I don't see a significant change to what we gave our investors as our outlook on the fourth quarter call. So what we have said is total tariffs for us are in the range of $105 million to $110 million. It may fluctuate a little bit, but generally speaking, of the total tariffs, incremental -- [ '26 ] is around $65 million of incremental tariffs this year versus last year. So that is flowing into our cost of goods sold, it will be heavily weighted here in the first half, and then we'll start to lap some of those tariffs in Q3 and then by Q4, we'll have lapped that. So when I look at that from a total cost standpoint, plus inflation, we've said that our pricing this year will be in the range of 2% to 3%. And at 3%, we would be offsetting our inflationary cost and the tariff cost on a dollar basis. So it will be 0 from a dollar basis. It will be margin dilutive to us if we're at 3% because I'm only covering on a dollar basis. And if we hit the midpoint, it would be negative margin and negative EPS. But generally speaking, we feel good when we look at that. Now we got to see how this new -- how the new world is and whether there's any opportunity for us. But I think today, at least we're still in that $65 million-ish range of incremental tariffs this year.

Okay. On the pricing guide of 2% to 3%, how would you frame that in terms of -- are there certainly -- dynamics are different as you look across the key markets. Where do you see kind of maybe the most risk to that? Or where do you feel more versus least confident...?

Yes. So if I think of the 2% to 3%, so I feel okay. We had about -- just over 1% carryover pricing from last year flowing into this year. And if I look at what we did in the fourth quarter, pricing came in better than what we had expected coupled with market share being better and dealer inventories coming down. So I feel pretty good with the carryover. If I look at the 2% to 3%, I would say North America is above the midpoint in our outlook here. Europe is kind of at slightly below the midpoint and South America is in between. From an industry standpoint, confidence level, Europe, again, given the stability of the market, we feel pretty good about that. North America is where dealing with the highest cost related to those tariffs. But overall, given the strength of that market of what we saw in the fourth quarter, still feel fairly good. But again, we watch what the competitors are saying, and we understand in our industry, it's often a relative gain. So if we think about that Fendt product and it's being compared to a competitor, we've got to make sure from a pricing standpoint that, that value proposition that we're offering to the farmer is in alignment with what that price delta may be. So depending on what the industry does, we've got to stay dynamic to keep our pricing competitive. But overall, we still feel good to be in that 2% to 3% as we start the year.

Okay. Yes. On the Precision side, I spent time with a number of your dealers back in January at a dealer event. And it was notable in terms of the -- just the mood and the sentiment that they have in terms of what AGCO has done in terms of delivering more products and just they have more products to sell. And so they definitely felt like a lot more -- had definitely more of a spring in their step despite what is a really soft market. So maybe just speak to that. That's a North American comment, but just speak to the Precision, this is a long answer, but what you've done globally to really improve the competitive position there?

Yes. PTx is -- it's phenomenal for us. It's a unique opportunity for us to differentiate versus the competitors. I think all of us are progressing on the technology stack. We're all driving technology. I think there's a couple of us who are probably leading in many aspects of the industry from a technology, whether that's targeted spraying, whether that's autonomy, all of us are pushing and some of us are pushing harder than others. But when I think about what's unique about AGCO is we have this unique retrofit channel where we service the mixed fleet. We talk about being the most farmer-focused company in the industry, and we want to give farmers the technology regardless of the color of iron that they're using. And we bring all of our new technology into this retrofit channel. And it's a completely separate channel than the new equipment. So these aren't usually new equipment salespeople. These are seed salespeople, agronomists, people who are more on the farm trying to drive productivity. And so we bring that technology there first, and it's all done in a retrofit mindset where you can bolt that on to your existing equipment. So you look at our targeted spraying application. Farmers for years have done broadcast spraying because they can't afford the risk of a weed escape. Well, now a couple of us have offered targeted spraying and you're telling a farmer, trust me that this machine can go through with AI and identify a crop versus a weed and it can reduce amount of pesticide that you're being spread, which sounds really appealing to that farmer because it reduces his or her input cost. Well, for us, though, you buy that hardware. So if for some reason, it didn't meet all of your needs, you can go back into that field 2 or 3 times and you're only paying for your fuel for your -- and your time, you're not paying for that targeted spraying every time. So we're trying to give them ways to experiment with the technology at a lower upfront cost. When we offer these products in our retrofit market, it's usually 1-year maximum 2-year payback for them. And so they can sort of experiment that as they get more and more comfortable with the technology, hopefully, they roll over into a new piece of equipment that has it with the Fendt brand or a Massey brand here in North America. So really trying to target technology for farmers to help drive them either incremental productivity or reduce their input costs, trying to drive their net farm income up. And so for us, it's been a unique opportunity for us to connect with farmers of different makes who use different types of equipment to drive the technology for them. And if I look at how that business performed last year, again, Precision or PTx was flat year-over-year, and there is the AGCO channel. There's the other OEM channel. Both of those were down with the industry, but the retrofit channel was down a lot less because for those farmers, it's a much slower entry point, much lower cost point, and they're able to either drive better yield or lower input costs. And so we see that channel performing better than the new equipment channel, and that's a big part of the growth engine for us as we bring more new products coupled with -- because of the PTx joint venture. Last year, we introduced 14 new products into the market. You saw at winter conference several new products like ArrowTube, so improving the yield to getting that seed. Targeting done the right way, so you get the right seed placement for better yield on the farm, coupled with a couple of the other innovations. So we see new product innovations being a huge part of our growth and then also the geographic rollout because we have a strong presence in North America with Precision Planting. PTx Trimble was in Europe, bringing those 2 together, cross-pollinating the portfolio and then the big growth coming in South America longer term.

Yes. All right. I think we hit it. There's a breakout session after if anyone has any questions that we want to touch on. But thank you, Damon, and thank you, Greg.