Agilyx ASA (AGLX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, we warmly welcome you to the H1 2026 Earnings Call for the Agilyx ASA. Please note that this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available later. Your participation in the call implies your content to this. I am pleased to welcome Agilyx's CEO, Ranjeet Bhatia; and CFO, Bertrand Laroche, who will guide us through the presentation in a moment, after which we will move on to the Q&A session. And with no further ado, let's move on to the presentation.

Thank you very much, and good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Ranjeet Bhatia, Chief Executive of Agilyx, and I'm joined today by my colleague and Agilyx Chief Financial Officer, Bertrand Laroche. I've personally been a shareholder in this business in Agilyx and a Director since 2009, Chief Executive since 2024. I also serve as the Chair of GreenDot Global. We will have a Q&A period at the end of the presentation, as was mentioned. If you have any questions during the presentation, please do feel free to include them in the chat box, and we will try to answer your questions during the Q&A or of course, take audio questions afterwards. Today, we'll step through an overview of Agilyx and highlights from H1 first half, provide an operational review and the current market outlook, and we'll discuss and Bertrand will lead us through our H1 financials in more detail. This presentation will also be posted on our website after this session, so you feel free to download it from there as well. Firstly, a brief summary of Agilyx. We are listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and we have 2 business units that operate in parallel. The first is the primary operating platform. We own a majority of GreenDot Global, one of Europe's leading integrated plastic recyclers and which is fully consolidated into Agilyx from the end of April this year. And GreenDot receives, just in brief, GreenDot receives and owns plastic waste and operates mechanical recycling facilities in multiple EU countries. This segment is really what generates our group profitability and today's cash flow. The second segment is arcLABS, our wholly owned technology and analytics firm arm in the United States. It has 20-plus years of chemical recycling, research and development experience, 22 patents, and it markets lab services that support both our own facilities and third parties. It's really the R&D arm of our company. This slide is intended to answer a common question, which is what do we do and why does owning all of it together present an advantage in the marketplace. So we structured Agilyx to meet the needs of a really rapidly evolving market in plastic recycling and the strategic and industrial logic is to control high volumes of plastic waste through collection programs to own the mechanical and the chemical recycling and feedstock plants and thus have the capability to route plastic volumes through the most profitable channels, which is a dynamic decision, which is evolving as the market is moving quickly. In addition, controlling plastic from source to recycled products to recycled end products enables us to develop into a one-stop shop for brands and retailers who are already our customers and are now working on pan-European recycling strategies. The left 4 columns on this slide are services provided by GreenDot. So moving from left to right, it's a contracted supplier of waste handling in Germany under its extended producer responsibility rules. It's a significant producer of recycled plastic with mechanical recycling facilities across 5 European Union countries. It's a supplier of chemical recycling feedstock. And lastly, it's a co-developer of an AI-powered EPR compliance software platform in collaboration with osapiens, a German software business to address increasingly complex reporting requirements. Needless to say, it takes years to develop these customer relationships, the brand awareness, the market insights and of course, the operating permits and expertise. The right 2 columns are the capabilities of our technical platform, arcLABS, which I referred to, again, our U.S.-based R&D center, which qualifies feedstock and licenses technology. I'd say that some of our peers may own 1 or 2 of these capabilities, but difficult to find one with the full breadth of Agilyx. Our position across the value chain really gives us operational flexibility and strategic synergies. Focusing for a moment on the highlights of 2026, the first half of 2026. A central highlight is our increased ownership in GreenDot Global, which Agilyx now owns 50.1% and is consolidating results as of April 20 and the expansion of that platform through multiple acquisitions that have occurred over the last 9 months of our involvement. In H1, we also implemented -- Agilyx implemented a strategic restructuring where we exited all of our U.S. project development activities and obligations and repaid our outstanding senior debt, which has been allocated for that purpose. We're now focused primarily on Europe, where GreenDot is our key asset. And as part of our pivot, we placed EUR 26 million of convertible bonds during the period, and we extended our runway -- our operating runway to at least late 2027. For H1, we reported EUR 85 million in revenue, an EBITDA loss of EUR 1.9 million and a net profit of EUR 9.7 million. GreenDot, just for transparency, GreenDot on a stand-alone basis for the full 6 months booked EUR 229 million in revenue, EUR 8.9 million in EBITDA. So we only consolidated 2 months of those operations given the date of our -- the control transaction. But on a pro forma 6-month consolidated basis, we would report a solid EBITDA profit. So while Agilyx has been through really significant transformation over the last 2 years, in H1, we really emerged as a stronger company and on solid financial footing. Focusing on operations. The essential business here, as I mentioned, is the EPR, which has 15% market share in Germany and over 30-year operating history. It has near universal brand recognition in the German market, and it licenses its brand and logos across Europe, including in Norway, where I'm currently a resident, where it's familiar to many as [indiscernible]. In 2026, the EPR business is processing 400,000 tons of recycling volumes, including circa 200,000 tons of waste plastic. And if we take into account recent acquisitions, the total input mechanical recycling capacity has increased to 175,000 tons. On the chemical recycling feedstock side, we have a prep facility, preparation facility is in construction in Austria, which is on budget and on time for commissioning in Q2 of 2027. And combined, that Austrian plant, combined with our plant outside of Milan, will bring our chemical recycling feedstock production capability to close to 60,000 tonnes per annum. Importantly, again, I come back to EPR business. It's a central part of our financial structure. The GreenDot or EPR segment is paid upfront for plastic before plastic is sold. So revenue that comes in does not necessarily depend on commodity prices of plastic, and we have good visibility early each year on the full year performance. You can see from the slide, the left side of this page that gross profit has been consistent over 5 years, and we expect this to continue with modest or moderate growth. But the stable waste volumes and the predictable and stable cash flow of EPR really helps us insulate GreenDot from the cyclicality of the recycling sector and has enabled or empowered the company to make opportunistic investments to expand its platform. So to that end, mechanical recycling throughput capacity has expanded 2.5x in less than a year by way of acquisitions in France and Spain earlier this year and the addition of an Italian acquisition completed late last year. So integrating and consolidating these acquisitions into Green Dot's portfolio has been a real focus of the management this last year, and we're seeing immediate contributions from both the Italian and the French mechanical operations. We won't see full potential from these and from the Spanish acquisition until 2027 and onwards, where we are already seeing the benefits of the network. So what's driving this market and why particularly now is there's so much catalyst is that the EU legislation is really set to transform the industry. The EU's packaging and packaging waste regulation came into legal force on August 12 of this year, just a couple of weeks ago. Its mandates requires that recycled content targets kick in, in 2030 and that all packaging placed on the European -- in the European Union must be recyclable -- must also be recyclable by 2030. And then critically from November 21 of this year in a few months, the EU will ban plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries. And that means that waste that used to leave Europe will primarily need to be processed inside the EU. So right together, you get really 2 effects that works to our benefits. The demand for recycled content is becoming mandatory rather than voluntary which is a structural tailwind for those of us who can supply product. And the export ban decreases input costs, which will have a positive effect on supplier operating margins. So the demand impact of that legislation is pretty significant. It really, I would say it's not an overstatement to say we expect a wave of demand as a function of the legislation. Plastics Europe projects that the EU will require over 11 million tons of recycled plastic for packaging by 2040. To meet this demand, the 2.5 million tons currently used for packaging will need to double by 2030 and double again by 2040. Our mechanical recycling capacity will directly benefit from increased demand for high-quality recycled plastic. And we firmly believe that, that demand is going to outstrip current capacities, and therefore, it's also going to accelerate the need for chemical recycling to meet targets. So while we have a strong and operative and profitable mechanical recycling platform, our footprint in chemical recycling also provides us an optionality on that growth by providing feedstock through Green Dot's facilities and conversion technology from arcLABS, which in combination allows us to really be a player in that sector. We have previously shared some indicative 2026 performance figures for GreenDot. So we're very pleased that the company is substantially on track to achieve these expectations. We've made a small downward adjustment in mechanical recycling EBITDA forecast due to the acquisition of Anviplas in Spain, which was not in our previous forecast and will require some investment over the balance of the year. We expect Anviplas to breakeven by year-end, though and make a positive contribution in 2027. We have high visibility on circa EUR 19 million of EBITDA at GreenDot in 2026, growing from EUR 11 million in 2025, so very substantial growth. And I made a comment that as an Agilyx shareholder recently observed to me that she was absolutely correct in saying it that anyone who wants to win in 2030 needs to be a player in 2028. At GreenDot, we're moving very quickly to consolidate an integrated fast-growing and profitable platform, and we're confident that we're tracking to a 2028 target of EUR 50 million in EBITDA. And lastly, before we turn over to the financial section, I do also want to mention or comment that on our projects around digitalization, which are very important to the future of the industry. As regulation expands across the European Union, companies are under increasing pressure to navigate compliance and complexity. In H1, GreenDot entered into an exclusive relationship with osapiens, a German AI software unicorn backed by BlackRock and other prominent investors to develop and market a recycling compliance solution for the EPR market. The first modules are expected -- are currently under development. We expect them to start coming to market at the end of '26. And combined with GreenDot's other activities to digitize packaging information, we're very excited about the potential software-like margins and meaningful growth that this segment can deliver over the coming years. With that, I'd like to pass the microphone to Bertrand, who will review our financial performance in more detail. Bertrand?

Thank you, Ranjeet. Good afternoon. Let me take you through the first half of 2026. GreenDot was consolidated only from April 20, so these results do not reflect the full 6 months. And with no GreenDot in the 2025 comparative, no line is like-for-like. Consolidated EBITDA was negative EUR 1.9 million, positive EUR 2.7 million from GreenDot since April -- since late April against negative EUR 4.6 million from Agilyx, which includes EUR 1.4 million of one-off costs, mainly on the fundraising cost for the convertible issuance. We expect Agilyx platform costs to run at around EUR 1.5 million per quarter going forward. Net profit for the period was EUR 9.7 million, which includes EUR 30.2 million of one-off gain I will come to on Slide 17. Cash was EUR 54.5 million at the end of June against EUR 4.8 million at the year-end. The increase is principally coming from cash coming on the balance sheet with GreenDot and Agilyx consolidation together with the convertible bond proceeds. We also show GreenDot on a 100% basis for the full 6 months. GreenDot is tracking well to its target of EUR 19 million EBITDA for the full year with EUR 8.9 million delivered in the first half. Anviplas, the Spanish acquisition that closed at the end of June is slightly dilutive on EBITDA for this year, while we integrate the business we acquired out of insolvency. We expect to reach EBITDA breakeven on that asset by the year-end and a positive contribution from 2027. Let's look at GreenDot performance under each segment. EPR revenues were EUR 189 million with volumes and margins stable year-on-year despite lower paper recyclate prices. Mechanical recycling is where the growth is. Revenue are up from EUR 17 million to EUR 40 million and EBITDA from EUR 0.9 million loss to a EUR 1.9 million gain, driven by the acquisitions over the last 9 months of 3 groups. RG Group in France is performing strongly. [indiscernible] is slightly behind plan as a bottle-to-bottle business ramps up more slowly than projected. And in Germany, a fire at our German plant at Ill slightly disrupted operation in June with the site coming back online from August. For context, mechanical recycling generated EUR 31 million of revenues in the whole of 2025 and already EUR 40 million in this half alone. Chemical recycling went from $1.9 million to a EUR 3.2 million EBITDA loss, mainly due to the fire at our Italian sorting facility, which was down around 7 months for repairs and reppermitting. It restarted in May and is ramping back up. Let's review the bridge from the operating results to the reported profit, an operating loss of EUR 5.3 million against, which is EUR 30.2 million of gains. First, EUR 11.4 million from the remeasurement of our previously held 46% interest in GreenDot to fair value. EUR 12 million on the [indiscernible] reorganization, where we took the remaining net assets for no consideration and EUR 6.8 million on EBITDA, both through a court supervised sale for a nominal sum well below the fair value of these assets. So none of these 3 recurs. Below that, EUR 15.2 million of net financial items, principally the cost of redeeming the senior bond in March, which gives EUR 9.7 million of profit, of which EUR 3.6 million goes to the noncontrolling interest in GreenDot and EUR 6 million to Agilyx shareholders. The balance sheet has changed significantly since December 2025, essentially due to the GreenDot consolidation. Total assets are now EUR 468 million, and we now carry GreenDot in full, replacing the EUR 41 million equity accounting investment, with EUR 136.9 million of goodwill and EUR 113.7 million of customer relationships and trade names. Equity includes EUR 64.7 million of noncontrolling interest. The balance sheet shows a net current liability position of around 58 million that is structural to the EPA cycle rather than a liquidity constraint. Licensing fees are billed annually upfront and the associated recycling costs are provided for and settled through the year. Against this, we hold EUR 54.5 million of cash and an undrawn EUR 25 million revolver facility. On the capital structure, the senior bond was fully redeemed in March, removing its covenant and releasing EUR 34 million of restricted cash from escrow. In its place, we issued EUR 26 million of convertible, of which only EUR 9.7 million was cash as the February tap was in exchange for senior bonds. No cash interest is payable on that loan, and it does not mature until June 2028. Interest-bearing debt has increased to EUR 142.6 million, mainly from the consolidation of GreenDot. At Agilyx level, net debt has declined by around EUR 20 million this year following the redemption of the senior bond and the issue of the new convertible. After netting the consolidated EUR 54.5 million of cash, the group net interest-bearing debt is EUR 88.1 million. Refinancing of the GreenDot facilities is targeted for early 2027. GreenDot has an undrawn EUR 25 million revolving facility and took in EUR 9.3 million of new equity from both shareholders in June. Neither Agilyx nor Green Dot has a near-term funding requirement and Agilyx is funding through at least late 2027. That concludes the financial review.

Thank you, Bertrand. And just to wrap up and to conclude, GreenDot's EPR really anchors the platform. It provides consistent cash flow and margins while controlling high volumes of plastic waste. EU regulation is catalyzing a wave of regulatory-driven demand. We are seeing increasing momentum and engagement as brands work to meet pending PPWR requirements. We're moving up the value chain by increasing product quality through investments in higher-quality capacity in our mechanical recycling business to drive EBITDA growth. Agilyx's conversion technology and technical expertise gives us real optionality to close the loop as that market develops, building on our successful deployment in Japan, where we have credible and proven technology already deployed. And we are well funded, as Bertrand mentioned, we are well funded to meet our objectives with excellent debt refinancing opportunities at GreenDot. I would add finally that the macroeconomic and industry and at times, company-specific headwinds over the last years has been a clear challenge. We've worked through them. We've navigated those waters and we've pivoted our strategy to meet the opportunity. And we really emerge today as a transformed company, well positioned to compete and to consolidate our position as an innovator and a market leader in the European recycling sector. I'm very excited for the balance of the year and be able to report our progress next time we are able to speak about it. So I want to thank you for your time today, and we will be happy to take any questions.

[Operator Instructions] And there is already one hand from [indiscernible]

Two questions, actually kind of one for each of you. In the deck, you've got the phrase fully funded until at least late 2027. The GreenDot refinancing is early '27. So I'm wondering why that date? And my wonder is it's less connected with the finance more with the strong tailwinds you're seeing from the regulatory change. Are you thinking that in late 2027, you're going to want to be looking at maybe significant new investment to meet the demand that's out there? And related to that, what sort of utilization levels are you at? How much spare capacity do you have in just what you have at the moment? And then I'll go with the second question for a little bit more technical. Just on the EPR working capital. I think I'm right in saying looking at the notes, it's the waste licensing accruals figure, EUR 88 million. I'm wondering, is there any seasonality in that? And just looking forward, would we expect that kind of level to kind of be maintained, maybe growing with the EPR business, but not for the rest of the business?

Bertrand, do you want to take that? The last part there?

That's correct. There is some seasonality to it. The working capital at the licensing business is all year negative, but there is like some swings. It tends to start on the higher side, like the building up in the early side of the year. So receivables tend to be at the highest early in the year, then go down. So there is a bit of a seasonal swing over the years, but the net working capital is actually roughly stable and always negative.