Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 9, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. So my name is Mohit Bansal, I'm one of the biotech analysts here at Citi. And I'm very happy to have today team Agios. So we have Jackie Fouse, the CEO of the company. We also have Kendra Adams, she's the VP, IR; and we also have Holly Manning, the Director of IR with the company. Thank you, Jackie, Kendra and Holly for joining us today.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveThanks for having us, Mohit. Happy to be here.
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. So maybe just to start with, why don't we start with you giving us a brief overview of Agios. It has been -- I think it was 2018 biotech conference that morning because announced that you are you're joining Agios as a CEO, you did not join right there, but it has been a little less than 2 years now. So last year, you have had success with the thalassemia as well as sickle cell program. So the company is kind of looking a little bit different than it was in last 12 months. Just talk a little bit about the last 12 months for Agios and the overview of Agios and where you are going next.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveTerrific. Thanks for that. And I'll try to be relatively brief because many of you out there know the story. Some of you may not know it so well. But there's one thing that has not changed for Agios since we started the company or the company was started back in about 2008, and that is the focus on cellular metabolism of our science platform and that means then diseases of dysregulated metabolism. So that's our bread and butter. That has allowed us to bring IDH inhibitors to the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia and we're now taking those into solid tumors. So there is IDH1 and IDH2 mutant cancers. The treatment for those came out of our cellular metabolism platform. And by exploring adjacent areas of biology, we've also taken our cancer portfolio into some other mechanisms, including MTAP-deleted cancers with our MAT2A inhibitor, and we have a brain-penetrant pan-IDH inhibitor that's in glioma as well. So you can see success of that scientific platform in cancer, starting in blood-born cancers and now moving into solid tumors and moving into some mechanisms other than IDH inhibition, but very successful. So what's happened to, part of your question, Mohit, around the evolution of the company, we think that there's as much and maybe more opportunity even in non-oncology indications for the application of the biology that's coming out of our cellular metabolism platform and diseases of dysregulated metabolism. And now we've seen success with a drug called mitapivat, where we have data across 3 indications, where the first label would be in pyruvate kinase deficiency, a genetically defined rare disease, where we expect of the readout of 2 Phase III trials very shortly that would allow us to get mitapivat approved in that indication. And because we -- the drug is also working to activate -- it's a PKR activator, it's also -- we found along the way as we studied it for the mutant enzyme associated with PKD, we found that it activates wild-type PKR. And so now we've generated data for that drug in thalassemia, both alpha and beta-thalassemia patients, and I'm sure we'll talk a little bit about that program as it is ongoing and in sickle cell disease patients. So it's the same scientific platform that has produced these therapies that have applications in oncology as well as a non-oncology, and we're very excited about the potential to evolve both mitapivat across multiple indications to treat a variety of hemolytic anemias, and we're also very excited about the research that our teams are doing in both areas, but it's the current wave of things coming for Agios has been a little more skewed to the non-oncology space recently and -- but with the same scientific route. So we're very excited about that. We're looking forward to sharing data on an ongoing basis. And we're looking forward to some key milestones that are going to be coming up soon. The other thing that we did related to where we are and the inflection points that we see in our business and our portfolio, because sometimes people ask me, "why do you -- I mean -- I have a bit of a track record in the industry, providing longer-term guidance, and they say, "why do you do that? How can you do that? Too many things change". Well, I happen to think that you need to have some visibility into your portfolio to be able to talk about certain aspects of your long-term guidance because these programs take a little while to read out, things like that. But so for the first time at the beginning of this year, we talked about our vision for Agios in 2025, and we're able to do that based on the visibility that we have today into drugs that are in the clinic and how those drugs can evolve from the standpoint of both label expansion strategies for our IDH inhibitors as well as going into new indications and bringing along a drug like mitapivat in the non-oncology area, where, again, now we have data from patients in 3 different indications. And it's a mechanism that we've been studying for over 6 years. So we think we know as much about that as anybody in the business. So with that, we see a clear path with drugs that we have in the portfolio today and in the clinic and the ongoing productivity of our discovery engine. Because remember, all of these drugs have been discovered internally at Agios or by Agios. We see a path to having $1 billion of revenue in 2025 and having multiple programs, at least 6 programs in the clinic and the potential to be approved in at least 8 indications by 2025 and significant growth trajectory ahead of us even after that. That's very strong growth between now and then. And we see much more optionality across the portfolio as we get out into those later timeframes based on our assumptions for approvals and things like that. So maybe that's enough of an overview for -- to get us started.
Mohit Bansal
analystWell that's very helpful. Maybe 1 question I have with this vision of $1 billion by 2025. Could you just touch upon, briefly touch upon -- you talked about the expansion opportunities as well. What are the key drivers to meet this target? And I'm sure you always have this buffer, as it sounded like, what -- if like there are 1 or 2 things which don't go right, you can still meet those targets. So can you talk about a little bit about those legal rooms there as well? Like what has to happen? And does this also include something in sickle cell or beta thalassemia as well for mitapivat? Because that could be cutting it close.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So it's -- we're not going to cut it too close. I'll assure you that we don't want to do that. But most of those -- that $1 billion of revenue is driven by the ongoing label expansions for TIBSOVO. So significant growth in acute myeloid leukemia as we continue to move through relapsed, refractory into frontline label expansions both in the intensive-therapy eligible patient population, which is the largest patient population in AML and that will have the longest durations of treatment, that's our ongoing HOVON trial and as well as the non-intensive patient population in newly diagnosed AML. So the lion's share of those revenues come from AML. We have some revenue assumptions in there for cholangiocarcinoma, where, as you know, we've had a positive Phase III trial readout in a very severe disease that has no current treatment options in the second line in greater setting, where -- which was a setting for our trial, and we await this quarter an overall survival readout, and maybe we'll talk about that a little bit later as well, we're on track for that. So TIBSOVO is the largest driver there. Then we assume an approval in pyruvate kinase deficiency. So the first label for mitapivat in that rare disease. And that starts to contribute in that time frame as well. We have very, very, very modest contributions from thalassemia in that time frame because it's very light. Our assumption is very light in the time frame and very modest contribution from glioma as well. We assume those 2 indications in that base case plan get approved in 2025. So you're just launching, you're just starting. So I think we've got some nice room or some margin for error there. We have not included anything for sickle cell yet, and we are moving fast with our sickle cell program. I'm sure Mohit wants to talk about that a little bit this morning as well. So that's not included in those numbers yet.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. No, I don't have any questions on sickle cell at all.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveWe hear that we're going to be terrific in sickle cell.
Mohit Bansal
analystYes. No. I mean, I think -- half of my questions are related to sickle cell, beta thalassemia and PKR. But maybe just covering the basis on TIBSOVO as well as -- I mean, we saw a little bit of a little bit of disappointing news from IDHIFA from the regulators here. Obviously, you have a royalties team. So I think from the financial point of view, it really doesn't matter for the company at this point. But in terms of thinking about TIBSOVO and its expansion opportunities, one, that particular regulatory issue, do you think it matters for TIBSOVO as well? That's number one. And then number two, what -- how do you plan to push TIBSOVO as a front line -- you are doing AGILE as well as HOVON trials, you -- what is your strategy to put TIBSOVO as a front-line AML drug with IC as well? I mean, what is the strategy there? How do you get to that? How do you put this as a drug where it should be actually? Because it could be a longer time frame.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveSo this could actually be a really long conversation. So I don't want to turn it into that. So we have some time to get to sickle cell and some of the other questions that I think that you're going to have. The -- but the short version of it is that Celgene and Agios had slightly different clinical development strategies supporting IDHIFA and TIBSOVO. And so Agios never ran the -- what would have been an equivalent of the identify type of trial approach, which was more of a confirmatory trial for IDHIFA in the relapsed refractory setting. In the end, the products -- both products got full approvals in that setting. The Agios strategy was to run the AGILE trial with TIBSOVO in combination with azacitidine compared to azacitidine alone to go for that non-intensive therapy patient population in AML with an IDH1 mutation and that label expansion. Celgene did not run that equivalent trial for IDHIFA. So the company has had 2 slightly different approaches. So I think the identify result while unfortunate, I actually, in many respects, don't think it will have a huge impact on the IDHIFA's growth trajectory given the other very strong data that IDHIFA, but that's a question more for Celgene and Bristol. And I don't think it will have an impact on TIBSOVO's commercial position in the market. We already -- we've continued to generate very strong data updates for our Phase I programs. The real-world experiences with TIBSOVO have been -- the feedback has been very good from both patients and physicians. And we're already seeing a spontaneous use of TIBSOVO in combination with hypomethylating agents in the market today. So our approach is continue to run the AGILE trial, continue to run the HOVON trial, and that's where HOVON has both IDHIFA and TIBSOVO. So the companies are well aligned in terms of how to approach the clinical development strategy behind -- for that intensive therapy eligible, newly diagnosed AML patient population with the IDH mutation, which is the largest section population in AML, as we said earlier. And so those are very much on track. The other thing that I think is important is the competitive landscape has a volume is our commitment to working with investigators like Courtney DiNardo and others on novel-novel combination trials as well. So you've got the triplet regimens emerging, so in combination with Venclexta, in combination with Vyxeos. And we continue to support those sorts of data generation efforts as well and we see a number of investigators being very excited about those. So we think the strategy behind label expansion for TIBSOVO is very much on track, and we keep moving things along. We are on track to have a CHMP opinion in Europe by the end of the year. If anything, I think those geographies can be a little bit challenging when you're taking dossiers forward on the basis of Phase I data. And so we do keep those sorts of things in mind. But I think we're in a pretty good place generally with TIBSOVO in the marketplace, particularly in the U.S.
Mohit Bansal
analystOne related question on that, still sticking with this. I mean, 1 related question is that -- the CC-486 approval recently, how do you think it helps TIBSOVO -- helps or hurts TIBSOVO, I don't know what you're thinking about. But because, I mean, on one hand, you can think that it is -- it could be a good oral combination because doctors are already using TIBSOVO in combination with azacitidine. And now you have a perfect replacement for azacitidine. So how do you think the market would evolve, which could help TIBSOVO in this combination?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveI think -- I was -- that there was a long time coming, so to speak. I have to say that I was very excited to see the trial read out the way that it did on behalf of patients. Because I -- as you say, I mean, I think it's terrific to have the potential for these oral combinations. I think those are great things to have, no matter what. The label for oral aza is a maintenance label, as you know. So I think there's some nice potential there and some good synergy between the drugs. So I view it as only being helpful for patients and the potential oral combinations in that regard.
Mohit Bansal
analystDo you think you need to do trials to solidify the position? Or do you think it is just a replacement for why it is?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveI don't think that we would do those trials. I think investigators typically in a situation like this where you now -- and this has happened with multiple myeloma over the years, as you'll recall. But there's been -- compared to the past, there's been a nice wave of new drug approvals for AML over the past 2, 3 years, and then we'll continue to see that evolution. And at a certain point, it's just impossible to run every set of combinations that you might want to envisage doing. And when you've got a mechanism in a drug class that's as well understood is azacitidine is in whichever form. I mean, I don't think it's necessary to actually run registration trials for that. I think physicians are going to start using these things and playing around with them a little bit and figure out which patients benefit the most from which regiment. So it's good for patients, and I think it's good for the dynamic in the marketplace, too.
Mohit Bansal
analystGiven the development in AML pretty lately, do you think it is going multiple myeloma maybe? Because it used to be a small market, and it has become -- multiple myeloma has become a huge market because patients are surviving longer. Do you think AML has the potential to get there?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveWell, I mean, given the number of patients, it's unlikely it's ever going to be as big as multiple myeloma, right? Just when you adjust for... I do think the general fundamentals, when you have more effective treatment options for any of these diseases, what will happen over time is you'll have the same incidence rates, but you'll start to have greater prevalence rates. And you'll have -- I mean, a few years ago, it was unheard of to have AML patients go on to fourth line and fifth line and sixth line therapy. And so it was hard to even maybe the third line therapy. And now what we see is increasing prevalence, patients are living longer with a good quality of life in there. We're just now moving into the point in time where they'll be able to maybe move through a different sequencing of different therapeutic options than in the past. They may even, at some point, get rechallenged with an agent at some point in time. So I think we're on the brink of higher prevalence more lines of therapy and over time across the portfolio, an increase in durations of treatments for AML patients as the drugs are affective. We still got a ways to go with AML. There's still too many people who die from it and die from it too soon. But as you know, with multiple myeloma, we have started to transform that disease into a chronic disease where people live long enough with a great quality of life to die of something else. And let's hope that we do that with AML patients eventually. We have some long-running AML patients on TIBSOVO. So hopefully, over time, we'll build up more and more and more of those patient experiences.
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. So let's just pivot to mitapivat. Just thinking about -- so starting with PKR -- so PKD disease, so you have Phase III ACTIVATE and ACTIVATE-T trials reading out from probably end of this year to mid-2021. For -- so we have seen a nice data in Phase II trials, but just trying to understand, if you can set a bar for success in ACTIVATE trial, what sort of transfusion reduction in ACTIVATE-T. So more success in ACTIVATE as well as transfusion reduction in ACTIVATE-T that could be meaningful for clinicians and patients. What kind of what kind of data are you looking at?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveSo let me start with ACTIVATE. And I'll -- the stats plan for ACTIVATE assumes that we would have 35% response rate in the active arm and a 5% response rate in the placebo arm. In these sorts of trials, you wouldn't expect for your placebo arm to meaningfully increase hemoglobin. So the primary endpoint, as a reminder, is a 1.5 gram per deciliter increase in hemoglobin. That's where we -- the response rate would be according to that definition and the trial is powered at 90%. So when we talk about thalassemia and sickle cell disease, the hemoglobin bar is at 1 gram per deciliter, which we think is a clinically meaningful. But in PKD, given the mutant characteristic of the disease, we set it at 1.5. And the response needs to be sustained at 2 time points within the scheduled assessments, which are at weeks 16, 20 and 24 in the trial. So we think that, that type of increase in hemoglobin allows you to address the hemolysis that's going on. It allows you to start to address the underlying implications of the disease in terms of the arm overload and eventual organ involvement, things that these patients experience, not to mention the quality of life of the patients and the reduction of fatigue and some things like that. So with the transfusion dependent -- that was for the non-transfusion-dependent population. With the transfusion-dependent population, the primary endpoint is a reduction of equal to or greater than 33% in transfusion burden with being in measured over the 24-week fixed-dose treatment period of the trial and compared to the previous standardized 24 weeks. So that's the bar there that is similar to what the data point was for luspatercept, as you've seen from that particular transfusion-dependent trial setting. So that's where we are. We're looking for those trials to read out sometime between the end of the year and the middle of next year. We updated that guidance back early on -- in the virus pandemic that the 2 trials could read out at slightly different points in time in that window. We haven't tightened the window just yet, not because we're not optimistic about the trials reading out and all of that, but we just are being mindful of being a little bit conservative around potential second waves with virus and your ability to get into sites and lock databases and things like that. But we've established a coronavirus task force and our clinical operations team early on back in February, and we're literally following all of these patients on an individual patient basis to make sure, one, that they could stay on trial and meet the requirements of the trial protocols over this pandemic time. And two, that we are monitoring the quality of the data, working with the sites, making sure we have complete data sets and things like that. So fingers crossed, but we're really looking forward to the readout on those 2 trials and then filing -- and hope that we will have an approval for PKD and be off to the races in 2022.
Mohit Bansal
analystGot it. This is helpful. Maybe so looking at the papers, I think the paper came out sometime last year, at the same time last year when, I think it was when it was published for PKD Phase II trial. And it seems like about half of the patients respond really well with this agent. And so what about the other half of the patients? Is this a fair way to think that it doesn't work in those other half? Or it's just that they're not responders, a different level of responses that are there? And how does the next-generation PK-R activator 946 come in the picture for those patients? Do you think it could be complementary to expand the horizon there? It is more like it would work similarly to mitapivat responders? How do you think about that?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So there's a couple of things to keep in mind about the Phase II data. And what we now know is that somewhere between 15% and 20% of PKD patients have a double non-missense mutation, and we've excluded those patients from the Phase III trial. So if you take that 15% to 20% that would have been in the Phase II program, now they're not enrolled in Phase III, you can adjust for that. We also know that there are some mutations that don't respond that well to mitapivat. The R510Q mutation is one of those. So the Amish population. So we've we think we understand many of the mutations associated with PKD. I think you'll hear people talk about, including our Chris Bowden, that there's probably over 200 of them. We don't -- we haven't characterized all 200-plus of them, but we think we know enough about this. And with the Phase III trial design where we know that certain patients won't respond, we've excluded those patients because it's better for them not to spend in the trial that the drug won't work, and it improves your chances of success with the trial. So that's how we think about that. We're very optimistic about the readouts on these trials. You mentioned 946. The 946, we know does work in some mutations that mitapivat does not work in, including the R510Q patient population. 946 now has moved into healthy volunteers. We've dosed healthy volunteer patients. And now there was a bit of a pause on healthy volunteer studies, as you know, during the pandemic, and now we're back on track with that. So we look very much forward to getting that healthy volunteer data for 946. And then thinking about what our options are for taking the drug forward, we're riding the mitapivat horse very hard now since it's a drug that we have data on from PKD, thalassemia, both alpha and beta and sickle cell, and we love the drug, we think it can be a blockbuster drug. And we're going to look at the potential portfolio options, life cycle management options with 946. 946 is, at least preclinically, potentially more potent than mitapivat. As I said, it potentially does work in some mutations for PKD that mitapivat doesn't work in. Will -- it has, at least, preclinically no aromatase inhibition, which, by the way, for mitapivat, and we will be taking to mitapivat into pediatric trials as well, we have the regulatory support for that, so the aromatase inhibition as it turns out, I mean, mitapivat has been essentially a lab of value where you see some of that. But the data still stays in the normal range, and we've seen no clinical manifestations of it. So we actually don't think that, that characteristic of mitapivat is going to be a hindrance in in the commercial space, and we're hearing that back from physicians as well. But 946 theoretically has no aromatase inhibition. So there's some characteristics around 946 that may make it helpful to have in the portfolio, but not necessary to have in the portfolio, is the way that I would put it, and maybe gives us some life cycle management opportunities. There's also some other hemolytic anemias that you can think about that we don't have data in yet. There's a broader range of those that would include some of the rare ones like Diamond-Blackfan and others. And so I think we're going to have some choices with how we think about the portfolio around this mechanism.
Mohit Bansal
analystSo it -- just to understand it, the Amish patient population would not be the target initially at least with mitapivat because they don't respond to the drug?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveCorrect.
Mohit Bansal
analystOkay. Got it. So that is one question we get a lot because, I mean, the market itself, it will take some time to generate the market, to develop the market for PKD disease. So can you talk a little bit about your efforts there? And I think you've had a registry open, so where is the registry right now? So just your efforts there.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So we've -- between the peak registry, our ongoing Phase II program, the patient finding efforts that we pursued globally, we have found well over 1,000 of these patients around the world in our estimate for the incidence rates in the U.S. and Europe is 3,000 to 8,000 patients. It's a pretty wide range, but we think it's an underdiagnosed disease. And when you've got treatment options, you're actually going to see better diagnosis. As we talk more and can contribute with the physician community to characterizing the mutations and even just finding them all and documenting them and things like that. I think that's going to be helpful over time as well. And frankly, going into a launch where you've identified more than 1,000 of these patients is going to put us in a great place with respect to how we take the drug forward. With all of these things, I mean, what you find with these underdiagnosed and undertreated diseases is many times, maybe not every time, but often, as soon as you haven't approved therapy and the awareness is raised, you improve diagnosis, you get more interactive or more engaged interactions from patients with their physicians when they know that there's a treatment option out there for them. A lot of these patients, if they know there's no treatment option, they're not actively going to their physicians asking because there's nothing for them to go for, right? So it's also the case with PKD that. Heretofore, there hasn't been a well-organized patient group. We've been starting to work with patients to help them connect, to help physicians connect. And at some point, I think there will be some momentum -- more momentum, we've been part of generating that already now, around patient advocacy for this particular disease as soon as there is a treatment for it. So we feel really good about where we are with that. It's going to be an ongoing effort for us. I think the -- for a company like ourselves to be investing in the disease and taking it seriously and wanting to do something for these patients has been very much appreciated, and we're also listening to them and physicians in terms of what they need, what we can bring to them in terms of value and how to together take this forward. So we're very excited to do something for these patients that are highly underserved. And we're excited about the ongoing label expansion potential for mitapivat because it's great to go into a rare disease. We love it. It's wonderful. From an investor standpoint, I think you'll also like to see us benefit in even more patients. So by doing the right thing for patients, we'll also potentially end up with a blockbuster drug here.
Mohit Bansal
analystSo that's always the case. And I think that is a nice segue into the least talked about program, sickle cell disease program here. So we have seen some interesting early data with sickle cell program. So can you please characterize that -- those data in -- because we have quite a bit of competition here as well in this particular disease area, you have Oxbryta, you have other agents as well. So can you please put that data in context? And then I have follow-ups on that.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So let me just talk about the program generally and a little bit about the competitive landscape. So if you for those who are following it, there are 2 approved products today. Plus you've also got something that people sometimes, I think, forget a little bit about -- you've got hydroxyurea that is still sort of a staple part of the treatment regimen for a number of sickle cell disease patients. And in the NIH-sponsored trial that we're working with them on patients can be on an area in combination with -- or in conjunction with mitapivat along the way. So I think that's something to keep in mind. But Oxbryta, the Global Blood product is a different mechanism. Adakveo, the Novartis product is a different mechanism. So we would we were the discoverers of PKR activation and the fact that it works both in the mutant PKD as well as activating wild top, which has taken us in the thalassemia and sickle cell disease. And I will just remind the audience that we've been studying mitapivat for almost 6 years in humans and well more than 6 years from the origination and the research program. So we think we know a lot about PKR activation mechanism. So Oxbryta is labeled for hemoglobin increase, Adakveo is labeled for a reduction in vaso-occlusive crises. We -- it's early days with our sickle cell data, but we're very happy about where we are. As you'll remember from the data that we disclosed back in June, we had 9 patients enrolled in the NIH trial up to the point where the virus caused a pause in enrollment. And we had 8 of those that were evaluable with 5 out of 8 meeting the 1 -- at least 1 hemoglobin -- 1 gram per deciliter increase in hemoglobin response rate that was the definition of the primary endpoint there. So 5 out of 8. We actually had 7 out of the 8 patients have hemoglobin increases. It's just that 2 of them did not quite make it to the 1 gram per deciliter, but they did have hemoglobin increases. So we only had 1 of the 8 evaluable patients not respond. So I think that's relevant. And in the meantime, the NIH trial has reopened for enrollment. They started dosing patients again in the sickle cell trial back in the middle of August. We expect that data will be presented at ASH. We will have -- we expect to have a full data set for the 8 evaluable patients that you've already seen the high level data for, so there will be even more details around those patients. And based on enrollment, reopening and with the dosing period associated with the trial, we expect by the time we get to ASH, even though it certainly wouldn't be in the abstract as the abstracts tend to get turned in 3 or 4 weeks ago. But we would expect that there will be an additional number of patients that the investigator will want to talk about from the podium at ASH. 2 of the -- because we've talked some about the dosing schedule and the different dosing levels, as you'll remember, we added 100-milligram dose back at a time when we had already made the proof-of-concept decision to go forward based on the results that we saw with the 50-milligram dose. So we didn't have to do it, but we thought, given some of the experiences that we've seen in thalassemia and the fact that way back from the PKD trials, we knew that we could dose up to 300 milligrams safely with the drug. We decided to add 100-milligram dose in collaboration with the investigator in the sickle cell trial. 2 of the 8 patients that we spoke with you about back in June have received the 100-milligram dose. And all of the patients that are being enrolled starting back in mid-August, and that will finish out the enrollment for the trial, will also receive the 100-milligram dose. So you'll have the 5 20, 50, 100 for all of that next wave of patients, and you have it for 2 of the 8. So we would also expect for the investigator to speak about that 100-milligram data at ASH as well. I think that we've got a chance here, and many of you probably know the Oxbryta data, I think the response rates were around 50%, maybe just slightly greater than that in the label data. So we've still got half of the patients who -- for that response rate associated with hemoglobin increase that don't respond to Oxbryta. So we think there's plenty of opportunity there. But more importantly, I think with mitapivat and its mechanism because it lowers 2, 3-DPG, which then impacts oxygenation, which is a similar effect of Oxbryta, though through different mechanisms, and we increase ATP, we feel like we have a good chance of showing both hemoglobin increase as well as potentially, we're being very thoughtful about the design of our sickle cell pivotal program, and you'll hear more about that over time, we expect to initiate that in 2021, about how we can design that trial to hopefully show both hemoglobin increase as well as potentially a reduction in vaso-occlusive crises because we impact both oxygenation as well as hydration of the and the life span and the red blood cells. So we're coming at those 2 different biomarkers with the mechanism of PKR activation, which we think should give us the potential to have a differential profile in the marketplace. And that's a lot of talking I just did. So maybe I'll stop, so you can ask some supplementary or complementary questions.
Mohit Bansal
analystWell, this is very helpful. I mean these were the complementary questions. So you kind of addressed them all actually. How -- one question I still have is that how important it is to have a differentiation there? I mean, given that if -- let's just say, if you don't show any benefit on VOC, would that be that an issue? If you just have better response rates, would that be up? I mean, how do you think about that dynamic there?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveSo we think -- I mean we think that showing both will be a win-win. We think -- and our sort of base case assumption is that hemoglobin increase, given we do have a different mechanism than the existing approved product is enough and that we can be very competitive in the marketplace. So we're actually -- for our base case sort of revenue and regulatory approval, a chance of success and all that assumptions are assuming that we can get there on hemoglobin increase. But we're planning to throw everything that we can at this in terms of intelligent pivotal clinical program designed to generate as much data as we can to potentially have a very robust data set that we we've been highly differentiated, where you could think about really big win-win scenario there as a possibility with some upside potential associated with it versus what we would assume in any kind of base case planning scenario right now. So the mechanism supports coming out the disease from these couple of different impacts, as I said, on 2, 3-DPG and ATP, so mechanistically, we think there's a strong rationale there, and we want to give the drug we every chance to win in the clinical program in that regard.
Mohit Bansal
analystThis is very helpful, actually. I completely understand. Maybe just wanted to touch upon thalassemia, you have alpha and beta thalassemia both in development. What is next for the program? What could we see next from the data point of view? And I think you have a pivotal program in place for 2021. So can you talk a little bit more about that program?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So we've got a lot going on. There's many reasons we love our story. So I'm including that we've been engaged with regulators on the design of the pivotal program for thalassemia. We are moving it forward. We hope to disclose -- to finalize and then disclose the details of that pivotal plan for all of you by the end of the year. So I guess, ASH is going to be a big time for us, hopefully this year. And it will include both alpha and beta thalassemia patients. As you probably know, we're the only company that's generated clinical data in alpha thalassemia patients, and they represent about 30% or so of the total thalassemia patient population and haven't gotten a lot of attention. I think we have some opportunities to educate on why those patients may need to be treated as well as treating beta thalassemia patients. So our program will include both of those patients, the pivotal, it include transfusion-dependent as well as non-transfusion dependent patients. So we're really trying to go for across a broad spectrum of thalassemia patients, share the details of the pivotal program with you around the end of this year, and then we'll be initiating that trial next year in 2021. And it's probably on a little faster time frame than sickle cell just based on the fact that we had data, the proof-of-concept data a little earlier for thalassemia, 6 months or so compared to sickle cell. But we're excited about both indications, moving full speed ahead with both of them. And the non-dilutive financing that we did in collaboration with Royalty Pharma back in June, has allowed us to start to fund those pivotal programs. So they're now both included in our base case plan. So we're funding those as well as we, at the time, extended our runway of 6 months. So we're able to take those 2 new things on and extend our runway with that financing. So we're very excited about that.
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. So this was 1 more question I had, so we covered it. The -- so 1 question, I just wanted to understand your thoughts on. So going back to oncology, you have such a great capability in-house and you have developed some molecules in-house. MAT2A seems like it doesn't have monotherapy impact, but it could be a combination agent eventually. A bigger picture question, where is the -- so like now there is so much focus on synthetic lethality as an approach, trying to target cancer. And if I understand it correctly, MAT2A is a synthetic lethal program, basically. That's exactly what it is. So can you talk a little bit about your capabilities in the oncology program, where it stands in terms of your criteria, your priorities because you have quite a lot going on. And is there a partnership opportunity for MAT2A or outside of MAT2A which you could explore further?
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveYes. So I think it's been really interesting because we were able to bring the IDH inhibitors out of our scientific platform into oncology as monotherapy agents. And then what you see is that the more significant expansion opportunities for those as you take them forward, in terms of label expansions likely are in combination, then you see the interest in combining with Venclexta and Vyxeos and all of those sorts of things. So -- and we all know that the oncology space is probably largely a combination-driven approach for many, many patients. So we have some cool targets coming along. We still think that MTAP-deleted cancers is an area of opportunity in a time-met medical need. So we like our MAT2A inhibitor concept. The preclinical data shows the potential for combining MAT2A inhibitor with multiple agents, and we saw very strong rationale for that, in combination with taxanes, which is why we expanded the Phase I program to include the 2 trials in pancreatic and lung in combination with taxanes. We know there's other options there as well. So including some combinations that we generated preclinical data on that maybe we haven't talked that much about, and we think there is some mechanistic rationale in combination with PRMT5. So I'll remind everybody that we -- it was only the month of May, and that maybe seems like a long time ago with everything that's been going on for the last 3 months or so, that we completely exited the previous relationship with Bristol that was on both the discovery research side as well as the MAT2A inhibitor development. And as we continue to generate data on AG-270, we think the current combo trials are going to be informative for that much of the preclinical work we've done is informative. And we know we have an active drug from the monotherapy data despite the fact that it was a basket trial and we can talk about the efficacy levels, but we know it's an active drug. So there's some openness that we have, quite a bit of openness, in fact, to potential partnerships. And I've said many times, if AG-270 is successful in the current combinations or if there's a potential other additional combination strategy, we'd be very happy to partner that drug with somebody to optimize its value creation potential for patients and for the company. We have some other interesting targets coming along out of the discovery group. It is a very productive group. And science doesn't come in linear progression. So sometimes there's waves and things like that, but we've got some, we think, cool targets coming along that we'll find the best way to talk about it at the right moment in time and think about our clinical strategy approaches for those as well.
Mohit Bansal
analystGreat. Thank you, Jackie. I think we are 3 minutes over the time. But thank you very much for this candid conversation. Really appreciate, always. And thank you for all the insights.
Jacqualyn Fouse
executiveThanks, Mohit. Thanks, everybody, out there. Take care.
Mohit Bansal
analystThank you, everyone, for joining us today. Hope you have a great day.
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