AGL Energy Limited (N9Z1.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for a briefing on AGL's 2025 Climate Transition Action Plan. My name is James Thompson, and I'm AGL's Head of Investor Relations. In terms of format for today, I will shortly hand over to Damien Nicks, AGL's Chief Executive Officer to present, and then there will be time for questions at the end of the presentation. [Operator Instructions] Over to you, Damien.

Good afternoon, and welcome to everyone on the call. For those of you who don't know me, I'm Damien Nicks, MD and CEO of AGL. Today, I'm joined by Gary Brown, AGL's Chief Financial Officer; and Suzanne Falvi, AGL's Executive General Manager of Corporate Affairs. I'd like to begin by acknowledging the traditional owners of the land on which we meet today, the Wurundjeri people of the Kulin Nation, and pay my respects to their Elders past and present. I'd also like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the various lands from which you are all joining. It's a pleasure to speak to you about AGL's second climate transition action plan, our 2025 CTAP. Hopefully, you've had a chance to read it. Our CTAP builds on our ambitious decarbonization commitments and is a reaffirmation of our strategy and our unwavering commitment to decarbonization. As I reflected in our investor presentation last week, we are undertaking a multidecade decarbonization of our business to allow AGL to continue to deliver shareholder value into the future and to support our customers through the energy transition. Three years ago, in September 2022, we released our inaugural CTAP. It was a bold step forward, committing to exit of coal-fired generation by FY '35, up to a decade earlier than previously planned. We set targets for new renewable and firming capacity, and we laid out a pathway to net zero for our Scope 1 and 2 emissions. With our 2025 CTAP, we're building on those foundations. We're enhancing our targets, deepening our commitments and demonstrating that we're not just planning for the transition, we're getting on with delivering it. Let me take a moment to reflect on what we've achieved since 2022. We've deployed or committed over $3 billion to support our decarbonization strategy. We safely and respectfully close Liddell Power Station, marking the beginning of our exit from coal. We've exceeded our target to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 17% compared to FY '19 levels each year since FY '23. In FY '25, we achieved a reduction of over 29%. We've grown a significant pipeline of renewable and firming projects, increasing it threefold since September 2022 to 9.6 gigawatts. We commenced construction of the Liddell Battery and brought the Torrens Battery online. And in late July, we made a final investment decision on the 500-megawatt 4-hour Tomago Battery, which we expect to be operational in late 2027. And we completed our exit from AGL-operated upstream gas production, more closely aligning our portfolio with our transition goals. On the customer side, we've been focused on delivery of our strategy of connecting every customer to a sustainable future. We launched Electrify Now, a digital platform helping customers to electrify their households with over 500,000 visits since May last year. We've expanded our VPP, and now we're orchestrating the hot water loads of nearly 100,000 customers, demonstrating how smart technology can reduce emissions and can save money -- customers money. We've expanded our EV ecosystem, including partnerships with bp pulse, PLUS ES and Everty, and launched an EV plan and subscription service. These aren't just milestones, they're evidence that AGL is getting on with it and taking decisive action on decarbonization. As you can see on this slide, our 2025 CTAP sets out the next phase for the decarbonization of our business. We've charted a pathway to be net zero for Scope 1 and 2 emissions following the closure of our coal-fired power stations and to be net zero for Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 2050. We've strengthened our interim Scope 1 and 2 targets, prioritizing direct emissions and reductions. We're increasing our current target to reduce annual Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 17% compared to FY '19 levels to a 19% gross reduction from 2027 on an ongoing basis. We've also added a 90% gross annual emissions reduction target following the coal closure to ensure our net zero Scope 1 and 2 target is met primarily via direct emissions reductions. Post closure of our coal-fired power stations, we may offset up to 10% of a residual Scope 1 and 2 emissions. Importantly, we're not planning to use offsets to meet our interim emissions target -- reduction targets. That is the targets that apply before the closure of Loy Yang A power stations. These targets are gross targets, meaning we plan to achieve them via direct emissions reductions. You'll also see that the CTAP refers to some discussion we have underway with the South Australian government, recognizing the importance of having sufficient long-duration firming capacity to ensure secure, reliable and resilient electricity supply in South Australia. The South Australian government has requested that AGL consider extending the operation of the Torrens Island B power station for 2 years. While the discussions have not yet resulted in a legally binding agreement, AGL has agreed in principle to request and continues -- sorry, in-principle to the request and continues to engage constructively with the South Australian government. We consider that this extension, if agreed, would not impact the delivery of the commitments outlined in the CTAP in relation to our emissions reductions targets or the approach to responsible transition. We've also set an ambition to reduce our Scope 3 emissions by 60% from FY '19 levels, following the closure of our coal-fired power stations and exit of associated mining operations and a long-term ambition to reduce Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 90% and be net zero for Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 2050. We recognize that achieving Australia's goal to be net zero by 2050 will take a whole economy decarbonization approach. Looking more closely at our Scope 3 emissions reduction pathway on this slide, we are committed to helping our customers decarbonize the way they live, move and work to deliver on our Scope 3 ambitions. The majority of our Scope 3 emissions arrived from 3 activities: the supply of natural gas to our customers, the supply of electricity to our customers, and the supply of brown coal to Loy Yang B power station. Looking first at our gas supply to our customers. As I noted earlier, AGL is actively investing to support customers to transition away from natural gas, particularly through electrification of our customers' homes and businesses. Turning to electricity, increasing uptake of consumer energy resources such as rooftop solar and behind-the-meter batteries by our customers, and effective orchestration of that CER, can help to drive down our customers' grid electricity demand as well as playing a role in supporting the decarbonization of the grid. As our customers electrify their homes, businesses and transport, we may expect to see an increase in grid electricity demand to power more electrified appliances and vehicles. This may drive an increase in Scope 3 emissions in the short term, but is key to unlocking in deep emissions reductions in the longer term across the economy. The key driver of reduction in our Scope 3 emissions from the electricity we supply to our customers will be the decarbonization of the grid. Delivery of our new renewables and firming commitments and the closure of our coal-fired power stations will help drive down the emissions intensity of the grid. Our largest stream of Scope 3 emissions come from the sale of brown coal from the Loy Yang mine to Loy Yang B power station. We are planning to cease AGL's operations of the Loy Yang mine following the closure of the Loy Yang A power station, targeted by the end of FY '35, and in line with the Victorian government's 95% renewable energy target. This will be a key driver of delivering our 60% Scope 3 reduction ambition. As a leader in Australia's energy transition, we are building on our decarbonization commitments. We've set clear targets to drive performance. We've just talked about our net zero emissions pathway. This slide shows how we plan to deliver this by supporting our customers on their decarbonization journeys. Recognizing the importance of increasing CER uptake by our customers and effectively orchestrating it, we are driving our performance through a short-term target to deliver 300 megawatts of cumulative customer assets installed by FY '27. We also have a strong focus on accelerating CER adoption and coordination and have set a new ambition to have 2.5 gigawatts of demand-side flexibility by FY '27. We're also committed to being our customers' partner of choice for e-mobility services. We have products and services that are designed to encourage customers to switch to EVs. We forecast that we will power over 1 million EVs by 2035. Turning to our development pipeline. We're on track to deliver on our ambition of adding 12 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity by the end of 2035, powering our customers' demand and we'll continue to look for opportunities to accelerate the transition of our energy portfolio. We've increased our interim target from 5 gigawatts by 2030 to 6 gigawatts by FY '30, and set a new target to have at least 3 gigawatts of grid-scale batteries by FY '30. We have, and we will continue to evolve our capital allocation over time to support our strategic priorities. Over the next decade, we expect to now allocate 67% of capital towards climate solutions. We will continue to optimize our balance sheet based on capital availability, risk allocation and our future energy portfolio needs. We plan to invest approximately $10 billion on balance sheet to support the transition of our energy portfolio guided by robust capital allocation and ESG frameworks. This investment will be weighted towards a mix of short and long duration firming assets, and has been the case for the last 3 years. We expect renewable generation will be mostly sourced via offtakes and partnerships. As we decarbonize, we know that how we transition matters just as much as how fast we do it. AGL is investing in a responsible transition, one that supports our people, our customers, and the communities we serve. Starting on the left-hand side of the slide, to support our people, we've developed clear principles to guide how we support employees impacted by site closures. For example, there'll be early and ongoing consultation with employees through transition working groups and individual transition plans will be created for impacted employees to help them prepare for success following asset closure. We'll also offer dedicated resource hubs at major sites, offering job placement services, retirement advice and well-being support. We've already put these principles into action at Torrens Island B power station. Turning to the communities. We're committed to engaging with community stakeholders respectfully and inclusively. We have best practice community engagement plans for our operating assets and proposed projects, and we keep the community informed of how their feedback is considered in decision-making. We also offer communities the opportunity to share the benefits of projects. A key aspect will be supporting the specific needs and aspirations of First Nations communities where our projects are located. We're also transforming our existing large thermal sites into integrated energy hubs, repurposing land and infrastructure to support new industries, jobs and regional development. Our vision for these hubs is to catalyze investment in low-carbon manufacturing, recycling, sustainable fuels and more. We look forward to working closely with government on policies that incentivize and derisk the creation of new industries and supply chains that will be integral to the success of this vision. Our customers are front of mind as the energy system evolves and we recognize energy affordability and accessibility are key to a successful transition. Through AGL community power, we're sharing the benefits of the energy transition, including with those who cannot purchase solar and batteries or who may be locked out due to barriers related to homeownership. We're integrating customer support into our operations with tailored programs for those experiencing vulnerability. And we're advocating for affordable electrification, simplified tariffs and stronger consumer protections. As we transition, we are not just building assets. We're helping shape the policy and market settings that will define Australia's energy future. AGL is advocating for responsible energy transition that balances reliability and affordability with the need to decarbonize. We strongly support Australia's commitment to the Paris agreement. Decarbonizing Australia's energy system requires collaboration and a collective effort from all participants. To lead this, we are clear on what we stand for, and our plan sets out 5 key advocacy areas. We recognize that we have an important role to play in the energy sector's achievement of a nationwide energy transition at pace and at scale to contribute to Australia achieving its climate goals. And we think this is best achieved through long-term policy certainty, effective market settings, improved infrastructure delivery and a supportive investment environment. This is about more than AGL. It's about helping Australia decarbonize with confidence, with clarity and care. We're advocating for the frameworks, reforms and partnerships that will unlock the next wave of investment, innovation and impact. We stand for a future that's reliable, affordable and sustainable, and we're proud to be helping lead the way. Our 2025 CTAP is a plan for action. It's a plan that reflects our delivery today, our strategic ambition and our commitment to lead responsibly. We're focused on execution. We're building the assets, delivering the products and the solutions and shaping the policy environment so that AGL remains a leader in Australia's energy transition. I wanted to thank you all for dialing in to hear about our CTAP today, and we encourage you to support the commitments outlined in this plan at our upcoming Annual General Meeting. Together, we can shape a more sustainable future for AGL for our customers and communities. Thank you for your time, and we'll now open to any questions.

Our first question comes from Rob Koh at Morgan Stanley.

Can I just firstly ask a clarification-type question just to make sure that I understand the targets properly. So there's -- amongst the commitments or the targets, there's a $10 billion investment. Is that a 2035 time frame, please?

Rob, good to talk to you again. That's correct. So that reflects what we've been saying to the market for a period of time now, of which I think you're going to see us spending $3 billion to $4 billion between now and 2030, and the balance in between '30 and '35.

That's great. And then my second question, I guess, is a little bit more specific in relation to the potential extension of Torrens Island B, and I just wonder if you can give us your thoughts on if there's some kind of agreement there, what your approach will be to transparency about that agreement. And if it may come with obligations to provide the replacement capacity as well.

Thanks, Rob. Look, we have been asked by the SA government to stay open for a further 2 years on a reliability basis. We are currently in discussions with the South Australian government. We haven't yet reached any in-principle agreement. So it's too early for me to sort of comment there as to where we get to. But importantly, when you think about that power station, it is a peaker -- it's not a peaker, but it's a gas-fired power station. It operates roughly 10% to 15% of the time. There's 3 units still in operation and typically 1 to 2 operate at any point in time for the reliability of the system. So if you put that in context of our emissions, it's roughly 2% of the total emissions between -- in the current emissions profile. So importantly, we'll continue to work with the SA government on the reliability front.

Next up, we have Angela Macdonald-Smith from the AFR.

Look, I think there's still some criticism that the 2025 plan that's not fully aligned with Paris Climate commitment. And that was, I think, one of the criticisms of the 2022 plan. I'm just wondering to what extent that's concerned as you look to get investor support for this ahead of the AGM, particularly from your biggest shareholder?