AIA Group Limited ($1299)

Earnings Call Transcript · March 19, 2026

SEHK HK Financials Insurance Earnings Calls 102 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#1

Good morning, and thank you for joining AIA's 2025 Annual Results Presentation. Today, we have announced record results with double-digit growth in new business earnings and cash generation and a new share buyback of $1.7 billion. This performance demonstrates AIA's ability to convert our competitive advantages into strong growth for shareholders. Let me start with the financial highlights. Value of new business increased by 15% to a record $5.5 billion. EV equity rose to $79.7 billion, up by 14% per share, and this is after returning $4.7 billion to shareholders during the year. Underlying free surplus generation grew by 11% per share and operating profit after tax was up by 12% per share, on track to meet or exceed our 2026 growth target. The Board has recommended a 10% increase in the final dividend per share and approved a new share buyback of $1.7 billion in accordance with our capital management policy. As you can see, we are delivering compounding new business that drives both cash generation and earnings growth. This performance reflects the execution of a clear and consistent strategy. It is fully aligned with Asia's long-term structural growth drivers and built on competitive strengths that are developed and enhanced over many years. Each of these strengths reinforces the other. And taken together, they are incredibly difficult to replicate. And this is what gives me confidence in AIA's ability to capture the significant opportunities across our markets. You can see this most clearly when we look at our individual businesses. In Hong Kong, we delivered record VONB of $2.3 billion, an increase of 28%. Our Premier Agency continued to lead the market with almost 25% of agents achieving MDRT membership. Agency contributed 70% of Hong Kong's VONB, growing by 26%. This reflected a 9% increase in active agent head count and a 14% rise in productivity. New recruits grew by 12%, supporting growth in future capacity while MDRT qualifiers rose by 20%, reinforcing our focus on professionalism and quality. Partnership's VONB in Hong Kong grew by 46%. Within this, Bancassurance delivered 41% growth supported by improved customer targeting and higher productivity. And our IFA broker channel grew by 49% and from deeper engagement with preferred brokers driving an increased share of wallet. Demand remains very strong from both domestic and Mainland Chinese visitor customers. Across both segments, our focus is on sustainable growth through regular premium protection and long-term savings solutions. The domestic business, which accounts for around half of our VONB grew by 21%. The outlook for future growth is strong as we add new customers and deepen relationships with our 3 million existing customers needing even more of their needs. VONB from Mainland Chinese visitors increased by 35%, mainly driven by sales to more than 50,000 new customers. We now have around 530,000 MCV policyholders, highlighting the enormous potential remaining for future growth from new and returning customers. With a leading distribution platform and a comprehensive product range, AIA's Hong Kong business is exceptionally well positioned to meet growing demand well into the future. Moving now to AIA China. VONB in 2025 exceeded $1.2 billion. For the full year, growth reflects economic assumption changes but momentum accelerated materially in the second half to 14%. This strong momentum has continued into 2026 with combined VONB for January and February, up more than 20% year-on-year. AIA's geographical expansion in Mainland China provides a unique long-term growth opportunity. Since 2019, we have established operations in 9 additional regions, including 4 new launches in 2025, adding almost 200 million potential customers within our target market. VONB from these new regions increased by 45% to $118 million, accounting for more than 9% of AIA China's total. Looking ahead, we expect VONB from new geographies to grow by 40% per annum over the next 5 years to more than $600 million by 2030. Our differentiated professional premier agency sets AIA China apart, contributing 85% of VONB in 2025. Agent productivity is 3x the market average, built on long-term relationships and the provision of personalized advice. This results in a more advantaged product mix and an industry-leading VONB margin of 65%. Our Premier Agency model is fully digitally enabled and increasingly powered by AI. This helps to raise professionalism as we attract and retain the best candidates while driving scale and productivity. In 2025, active agents increased by 8% and new recruits grew by 14%. New agency leaders were up by 4% and strengthening the foundations for continued growth. Alongside Agency, selective bank partnerships broaden our reach in the growing affluent and high net worth segments, delivering higher average case sizes and attractive profitability. Our solid foundation and strong momentum give me confidence in AIA's ability to capture the large and growing opportunity in Mainland China. Turning to ASEAN, where AIA is the #1 life and health insurer. We delivered VONB of $2 billion in 2025, representing 34% of the group's total. Thailand, our largest market achieved VONB of $1 billion, up 13%, driven by a strong agency performance and double-digit growth from partnerships. We have also provided a separate presentation on AIA Thailand's growth strategy, setting out how we intend to capture the tremendous life and health insurance opportunities in that market. VONB from Singapore increased by 14% to over $0.5 billion, with agency growth of 10% and partnerships up 31%, including strong momentum from offshore business. In Malaysia, performance improved in the second half as agency productivity and recruitment began to recover. Partnerships VONB grew by 17% in 2025 with strong results in bancassurance and our market-leading corporate solutions business. Across ASEAN, Premier Agency is our main source of new business delivering a high-quality product mix, and we are the leader in protection products across the region. Overall, the quality of our distribution and product mix position AI well to meet the evolving customer needs across the region. In India, Tata AIA Life delivered another excellent performance with VONB increasing by 33%. The business continues to focus on quality, ranking #1 for persistency and retail protection. Our agency is the market leader and contributed around 60% of VONB. Agency VONB grew by 44%, supported by improvements in activity levels, leader development and recruitment. Brand and broker partnerships are complementary to our agency distribution, extending customer reach and driving additional strong growth. Overall, Tata AIA is focused on protection disciplined distribution and consistent execution and ensure we are well on our way to capturing India's huge potential. Across the group, this consistent focus on quality distribution underpins our performance. AIA's proprietary Premier Agency is the core driver of profitable new business, contributing 73% of the group's total VONB. Our agents build lifelong relationships with customers focused on meeting evolving needs through trusted advice and best-in-class products. We have the world's leading Thai agency, which has been the #1 MDRT globally for the last 11 years. This is the outcome of a differentiated strategy honed over decades that supports high-quality profitable new business growth, attractive agent incomes and higher shareholder returns. The success of our model is self-reinforcing as it helps us to hire and retain the best agents, further extending our industry leadership. Continued investment in talent development and advanced digital tools has driven growth in agent numbers and a step-up in productivity. This has laid the right foundation to further strengthen our Premier Agency leadership through the use of artificial intelligence. Our agents provide ongoing reassurance and support through face-to-face guidance that helps individuals and families navigate complex choices and adapt as circumstances change. AIA enables deeper customer engagement and helps agents focus on what matters most: high-quality, tailored advice grounded in empathy, accountability and understanding. AIA, our all-in-one customer super app now manages interactions for more than 23 million users, providing powerful insights on needs and preferences. In 2025, our customer data mart captured and structured around 200 million customer interactions, enabling advanced analytics and more personalized and targeted engagement. As a result, we provided 5 million actionable leads to agents with a 17% conversion into sales. These leads generated more than $2.1 billion of VONB. This highlights how technology and analytics are amplifying our long-term advice-led model, supporting higher productivity and sustainable growth across our distribution. Fast-growing partnerships extend our reach to hundreds of millions of potential customers through strategic bank partnerships. We focus on selective high-quality partnerships aligned around shared growth ambitions and long-term value creation. By integrating AIA's technology and analytics capabilities into partner channels, we are able to improve customer targeting proposition relevance and productivity. As a result, Bancassurance' VONB has more than doubled over the past 3 years from higher numbers of active insurance sellers increase productivity and enhance profitability with 45% margin. Together, our agency and partnership channels create a powerful distribution model that supports long-term growth and advances our purpose of helping people live healthier, longer, better lives. By delivering protection and long-term savings solutions that support financial security at every stage of life, we help customers guard against unforeseen risks, accumulate wealth and plan for the future, and we do this through best-in-class products, combined with an ecosystem of health and wellness services that is backed by personalized professional advice. In 2025, we added 2.3 million new customers while existing policyholders accounted for around 50% of the group's new business through repeat purchases. 91% of the group's VONB comes from protection and fee-based insurance products ensuring sustainable and resilient earnings and cash generation for AIA's shareholders. In closing, today's record results demonstrate that we are executing a clear strategy that leverages our core strengths, deepens our competitive advantages and deliver sustainable shareholder value. Our ambitions are bolder than ever and the scale and resilience of our business, ensure we are well placed to realize AIA's full potential. I will now hand over to Garth, who will take you through the financial results in more detail. Thank you.

Garth Jones

Executives
#2

Good morning, everyone. I'll now take you through our excellent performance with double-digit growth across our key financial metrics. VONB increased by 15% to $5.5 billion, driving EV equity up by 14% per share to $79.7 billion, after returning $4.7 billion to shareholders during the year. UFSG, our key operating measure of cash generation rose by 11% per share, while under IFRS, operating earnings were up 12% per share. Through strong profit growth and our disciplined capital management, both operating ROEV and ROE increased to over 15%. Following the group's excellent performance, the Board has recommended a 10% increase in the final dividend. This brings the total dividend for 2025 to HKD 1.93 per share, also up 10%. Under our established capital management policy, the Board has also approved a new share buyback of $1.7 billion. The increased dividend and new share buyback and reflect our confidence in AIA's future prospects and financial strength. I will go through more details of the financial performance in 3 sections: First, the embedded value results to show how we create shareholder value. AE's growth strategy is focused on writing profitable new business, which compounds over time to support higher earnings and cash generation for the long term. VONB was up 15% from 9% A&P growth and a 3.6 percentage point increase in VONB margin, driven by proactive product mix shifts and repricing. Agency distribution was the group's primary growth engine, delivering a 13% increase in VONB. Partnership distribution grew by 22%, including strong double-digit growth from both bancassurance and our intermediated channels. With the majority of our markets delivering double-digit increases in B&B, we again saw broad-based growth in 2025. AIA's product strategy creates value for both our customers and our shareholders. Traditional protection products generate underwriting profits that are not dependent on capital market movements, while participating in unit-linked solutions generate stable fee-based insurance income. Over 90% of our VONB is generated from these most attractive product lines with very low average guarantees and strong and predictable cash generation. Our new business is capital efficient, with $3.8 of VONB generated for every dollar invested. And as we've reduced capital intensity, so the ratio has increased. The financial profile of new business is very attractive with rapid emergence of distributable earnings, driving high IRRs and short payback periods. Our capability to deliver large-scale, high-quality, profitable new business sets AIA apart and opens our confidence in the group's future growth. By consistently adding layers of profitable new business supported by prudent assumptions and active management of the in-force portfolio, we grow EV equity and in turn, cash generation. Higher VONB was the main driver of a 13% per share increase in EV operating profit to $10.9 billion. The successful execution of our integrated health care strategy and discipline in expense management supported greater positive operating variances, which added over $300 million to EV operating profit. As a result of the strong growth in operating profit, ROEV increased by 90 basis points to 15.8%. Over the year, EV equity increased by 14% per share after $4.7 billion paid to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. EV operating profit was the main contributor to the higher EV equity. Investment variances were positive following an improvement in the second half, reflecting favorable equity market movements in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Thailand. Positive nonoperating items of $1.7 billion mostly represent the effect of exchange rates. Net of shareholder returns, EV equity finished the year at $79.7 billion. A strong track record of positive operating experience demonstrates the prudence in our assumptions and the quality of our in-force business. Overall, consistently favorable operating variances have added $4.4 billion to EV equity since our IPO. While AIA is not immune to capital markets, you can see from the small sensitivities shown here that our EV remains highly resilient to short-term market volatility. A 50 basis point increase or decrease in interest rates has less than 1% impact on the group's embedded value. We also have a substantial allowance for risk in our discount rates, making EV equity a prudent estimate of the economic value to shareholders from the in-force business. Similar to our new business, future earnings from our in-force book are predominantly sourced from protection and long-term savings products, which provide recurring and resilient cash flows. The in-force is highly cash generative with earnings continuing for decades into the future. Over $53 billion is expected to emerge over the next 10 years. This figure is up 14% over the year as we added another layer of high-quality new business. Our strong cash generation allows us to both increase reserves to shareholders and reinvest in growing new business, which further expands our stock of future earnings. UFSG is our key operating measure of cash generation and is shown before reinvestments in new business and central costs. The key components of UFSG is the expected distributable earnings from the in-force business. which increased as we added new business written over the year. As a result of our proactive in-force management, operating variances improved compared with 2024. After allowing for the first time effect of global minimum tax, UFSG grew by 11% per share. Moving on to the IFRS results. Similar to our embedded value, continued growth in high-quality new business as successive layers of future profit to the CSM balance, which is gradually released into earnings over time. New business CSM grew by a very strong 17% and underlying CSM growth accelerated to 10.5%, together with positive variances and currency effects, the CSM balance increased to 64.9 billion at the end of 2025. As a result of a stable release rate and the larger stock, the CSM release increased by 10% to $6.2 billion. The CSM release remained the principal contributor to OPAT our core measure of operating earnings. Operating profit after tax increased to $7.1 billion. The higher CSM release and positive operating variances drove an 18% increase in the insurance service results, which added more than $1 billion to OPAT. This was partially offset by a small reduction in the net investment result reflecting the effect of share buybacks, higher financing costs and tax. Overall, OPAT increased by 12% per share, putting us on track to meet or exceed our 2026 target. Strong growth in OPAT and our ongoing capital management actions supported a 70 basis points increase in operating ROE to 15.5%. After returns to shareholders, allocated equity increased by 10% per share to $47.5 billion. Comprehensive equity at the CSM on a net of tax basis on to shareholders' equity, which provides a more economic view of shareholders' equity by including the value of future earnings. Comprehensive equity increased by 15% per share to $97.9 billion at the end of 2025. Finally, capital management. We follow a robust internal capital management framework. But by strong financial discipline, our unwavering focus on profitable growth delivers substantial free surplus generation. This supports a prudent, sustainable and progressive dividend. In addition, we look to return capital to shareholders that is surplus to our needs while retaining sufficient financial flexibility to capture the huge growth opportunities available to us. AIA's clear capital management policy sets out how we deliver sustainable and growing returns to shareholders over time through dividends and share buybacks. We Strong growth in UFSG supported an increase in net free surplus generation of 14% per share. As I mentioned earlier, despite the strong increase in VONB, a proactive shift towards less capital-intensive products most notably in Mainland China, saw a reduction in new business investment to $ 1.4 billion. Adjusting for unallocated expenses, finance costs and other items, net free surplus generation was $4.5 billion. As intended by our capital management policy, the shareholder capital ratio reduced over the year and remained strong at 221%. With respect to the 2025 financial year, total returns to shareholders under our capital management policy amount to $4.3 billion. Based on our excellent financial performance, the Board has recommended a 10% increase in the final dividend per share, which results in total dividends of $2.6 billion for the year. The Board has also approved a new share buyback of $1.7 billion. This comprises $0.7 billion to meet the 75% net FSG target and an additional $1 billion following a further review of the group's capital position. In aggregate, total returns to shareholders in respect of the 2025 financial results are $4.3 billion, up 13% per share compared with 2024. Our ability to write large scale high-quality and profitable new business with a very attractive financial profile is a key differentiator for AIA. Successive cohorts of profitable new business compound over time adding substantial layers of recurring earnings to our large in-force book, driving UFSG and PAC growth. With another excellent financial performance in 2025, we delivered double-digit growth across our key financial metrics of growth, earnings and cash generation and further extended our strong track record. Since 2010, dividends and share buybacks now amount to $40 billion. We believe that AIA's ability to deliver compounding growth across new business, earnings and cash sets us apart. We remain confident in our outlook. AIA is exceptionally well positioned to capture the enormous growth opportunities in Asia, the most attractive region in the world for life and health insurance. Our strong balance sheet, financial flexibility and clear growth strategy give us great confidence in execution. We're focused on driving high-quality profitable new business growth with highly attractive reinvestment economics. This adds further substantial layers of recurring earnings and cash generation that in turn will generate highly attractive returns for shareholders well into the future. Thank you.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#3

Good morning from AIA Central in Hong Kong, and welcome to AIA's 2025 Results Analyst Briefing. My name is [ Sami Taipalus ], and I'm delighted to be joining you today. in my new role as AIA's Group -- Chief Investor Relations Officer. With me on the stage today, I have -- we have Lee Yuan Siong, Group CEO; Garth Jones, Group CFO; and other regional chief of executives, Jacky Chan, Fisher Jang, Hak-Leh Tan and Leo Grape. We also have other members of the group executive committee with us in the room. Before we begin the Q&A session, I want to highlight that we have a separate video on AIA China's growth strategy, which we published on the website today. If you haven't had time to look at it yet, please do so later. We will now begin the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Operator, over to you.

Operator

Operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Thomas Wang of Goldman Sachs.

Thomas Wang

Analysts
#5

And the congrats on the results. If I have 2 questions. Firstly, so I think we welcome definitely the color on 2026 for Mainland China in the first 2 months also for Thailand on the first quarter. Just wondering if you could give us some color on Hong Kong because that's obviously very, very strong growth in 2025. How do you see growth momentum trending in the first couple of months? And what's your outlook? And the second question, thank you for the additional video in Thailand -- around Thailand. It's definitely a highlight over the last years. Just wondering, I'm sure you're working on sort of expanding some of the initiatives that you deploy in Thailand to other markets. I'm just wondering, from your perspective, how do you think about that the success in Thailand? How much is kind of done to your execution? And what -- how much sort of the market-specific factors that played into your success. The reason I'm asking is that if you deploy -- obviously, if you put some initiative to other markets, they may not be successful as the line. So I'm just trying to get a sense sort of how much you may need to kind of fine-tune that strategy in other markets.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#6

Thank you, Thomas. I'll just start with a few comments, and I'll hand over to Jacky on Hong Kong. Very happy with our performance by Hong Kong developed very broad-based momentum across customer segments and excellent performance across our all distribution channels. As you know, we have the market-leading agency force which contributes to 70% of AIA Hong Kong's VONB. Number 1, MDRT, 25% of our agents in Hong Kong, our MDRT qualifiers and all the fundamental drivers of agencies is performing strongly. In terms of demand, we have a very -- we are very positive on the outlook for demand growth both in domestic and MCD segments. Maybe Jacky, yes.

Jacky Chan

Executives
#7

Yes. Thank you, Yuan Siong. I just want to add that the Hong Kong and Macau momentum is very strong in 2025. First half VONB grew by 24% and second half, VONB grew by 42%. And as we launched innovative participating product in July last year, and that was getting a lot of attraction and also traction in the market, and that will actually continue. And we continue to see that both our premier agency and our select partnership with both our bancassurance partner, Citibank, BA and our selected partners in IFM brokers area, all these channels continue to maintain strong momentum going into the first quarter of this year.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#8

Thank you. Thomas also on Thailand. Clearly, talent is a very important market for us, and Thailand has delivered strong performance in 2025. VONB growth of 13%. In fact, Thailand has been growing consistently over many years. Our VONB in 2025 was double the level of 2019, pre-COVID...

Hak Leh Tan

Executives
#9

There's certainly a question mentioned to explain the there contributed to an exceptionally strong first quarter results in 2025. On a full year basis, the growth of Thailand was broad-based, saw strong growth in Life cloud medical cost both CD and AGC China. In fact, our market-leading agency channel continues to grow in scale and in productivity with an increased market share of close to 4%. Our strategic partnership with a big bank with Banco Bank, growth in productivity as well as case size through our segment focus for the strategy. So overall, we are in Thailand with an extremely strong taco on delivery. And as you can see from the presentation that was uploaded this morning, we have a very clear growth strategy to build on the competitive we have entire recapitalize opportunities that still been the [indiscernible].

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#10

Thank you, Hak-Leh. So I do encourage I do encourage you to watch the video. Thank you, Thomas. I do encourage you to watch the video on Thailand. If you look at the video, you see that a lot of what we are doing in Thailand is very similar to what Fisher introduced in the China video in last year. So this demonstrates that we are learning from the best practices across our markets and industrializing it across the AIA group, yes.

Operator

Operator
#11

The next question comes from MW Kim of JPMorgan. [Operator Instructions]

M.W. Kim

Analysts
#12

I would like to ask 2 questions, one on solvency capital and one on India. Firstly, following the strong capital return, the solvency ratio loaded to the 221% as of the December 2025 with a more ambitious growth initiative planned for 2026 and additional share buyback announced. Could you briefly share your year-end solvency ratio projection? Is 200% of the recurred capital still the company for target capital ratio? On India, the India JV delivered another strong new business value increased 33%, could you please share the time line for providing stand-alone disclosure on India business Additionally, do you view the regulatory environment, including GFE, the exemption and potential changes to upfront fee commissions a supportable view of the growth outlook in India?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#13

Thank you, Kim. I'll just start again with a few comments, and I'll hand over to Garth on the capital question. As you know, we have executed consistently on our capital management framework over the recent years, leading to a much more optimal balance sheet and higher returns on capital. We are -- so maybe I'll hand over to Garth to elaborate.

Garth Jones

Executives
#14

Yes. Thanks, MW. You can see that the capital management framework that we set out is doing exactly what we expected it to. You have the 75% of net free surplus generation. the increase in the dividend, prudent, sustainable and progressive and an additional $1 billion. That brings the total payout to $4.3 billion for the year, which is up 13%. With the payout, you'll see that the shareholder capital ratio reduces. And I should say that the 200% that we have mentioned before, it's not an absolute limit. It's not a target. It's a measure, and we say we want to be comfortably above that 200%. It may dip below that in certain stress situations, but we look at the situation as that happened. I think the key thing is for us that we're actively managing the balance sheet, actively managing the capital position. You see the strong OPAT growth, 12% OPAT growth that's in excess of our to 11% OPAT target. We're on track to either meet or exceed that OPEC target. Combined with the capital actions we've taken have driven an increase in ROE to 15.5%. And with that, you can see that we are doing all we can to create shareholder value by not only growing the business but actively managing the capital position to an up to all place. We remain very strong. We see good flows from the businesses, good remittances, holdco cash is good. So overall, the business is in great financial shape, and we're very confident about the way we'll look in the future.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#15

On India, another excellent performance with VONB up by 33%. So I'll hand over to Leo to discuss India further. Thank you.

Leo Grepin

Executives
#16

Thank you for the question. On India, as you've noted, we've been delighted by the performance of our joint venture this year, as Jatin mentioned, up 33%. That growth has been broad-based across our agency channel, which was up 44%. And which was up 44% last year with very strong quality of the business, very strong recruiting double-digit, liter growth, double digit, active agents double-digit. And then also our partnership distribution channel, which also showed 21% growth last year in VONB and on the back of our banca partnerships, where we're seeing increasing productivity of our insurance specialists, as well as our brokerage partnerships where we continue to have the #1 wallet share across the leading brokerage firms. So very broad growth and importantly, for us, very high-quality growth. Our agency remains #1 in MDRT in the country. We remained #1 in persistency and we're very focused on growing protection, which is reflected on us being the #1 life insurer in terms of retail sum assured. So overall, very strong momentum for the business. And you referred to some recent regulatory changes and as well as broader reform. Broadly, MW, we view this as quite supportive of the growth of the industry. The recent GST reform in our view, is a progressive step in increasing affordability for life insurance in the country and supporting the development of the industry. Similarly, we've seen an amendment of the Insurance Act in December of last year with, for example, some measures to increase foreign investments in life insurance in India and we see all of these as liberalization of the industry, which we think will be conducive to continued profitable growth. Great.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#17

Before we go to the next question, we understand. that there's been a bit of an audio issue. So we're going to repeat the answer on Thailand that Hak-Leh gave earlier.

Hak Leh Tan

Executives
#18

Thank you. Thailand delivered an ear of strong VONB growth. VONB was up 13% to USD 1 billion, which is more than double the pre-corporate level. Our market-leading agency force in Thailand continue to grow in scale and productivity. We've been on in the market since IPO. And by end of 2025, our market share of agency is in excess of 40%. Partnership distribution continued to grow strongly our strategic partnership with Bangkok Bank to grow in case size as well as activity built upon our segment-focused strategy for the bank's various customer segments. As you can see from the presentation that we uploaded this morning, the AIA Thailand remains a clear market leader with an extremely strong track record of recovery of delivery apologies. We remain very optimistic about the growth potential in Thailand, and we have a clear strategy that spill upon our various competitive advantages to fully serve the time market.

Operator

Operator
#19

The next question comes from Charles Zhou of UBS Securities.

Cheng Zhou

Analysts
#20

This is Charles Zhou from UBS. I have 3 questions. First of all, I think congratulations for a solid set of results. The first one is about AI. I think in U.S. and European markets, AI is making material progress in reshaping the insurance industry such as AI automated insurance distribution and also autonomous driving, et cetera. So how do you view the potential AI disruption on AIA? And also, could you please maybe briefly outline the key AI use cases already in place today? And also how your AI strategy could evolve over the next couple of years? My second question is about the growth outlook for the whole group. I think for 2025, the 15% growth was strong, although part of that reflects some temporary tailwinds for example, the regulatory changes in Hong Kong second, third quarter and also first quarter in Thailand. So looking through those one-offs, how confident are you in sustaining the mid-teens value of new business growth this year? And also what are the key growth drivers behind? My last question is related to China. On Page 8 of your slide for China, I think glad to see very strong momentum of over 20% value of new business growth year-on-year in the first 2 months. So may I know if it is largely driven by bancassurance. The major domestic peers are accelerating the bancassurance development to capture the so-called causing migration opportunity. But I think AI has been focusing on the premium agency and protection products. So what is your distribution channel strategy? And also, how do you view the deposit migration in China?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#21

Thank you, Charles. I'll take the first question on AI, and then I will hand over to Fisher to talk specifically about how we are using AI in China. Very excited on opportunities for AI. I think it aligns and amends and elevates our agents or proposition which is providing trusted and personalized advice and we'll definitely improve efficiency and productivity. Over the years, the more than $800 million of our TDA investments that we have put in has placed us in a very good position. Our strong technology foundation, our large pool of structured data enable a range of AI and digital tools that are already delivering benefits to the business. We have the scale, we have the industry knowledge with the proprietary data with the financial resources to work alongside leading global technology providers to further improve distribution productivity customer experience and operational efficiencies through the use of AI. Our Premier Agency offers personalized advice on products which are critical to customers, physical and financial well-being in a highly regulated environment, making trust and accountability are key to our offering. And this is hard to replicate with the tech alone. We believe that AI will augment and elevate our primary agents. I'll hand over to Fisher to talk a bit more about how AI is empowering our agency force in China.

Fisher Zhang

Executives
#22

[Foreign Language] Let me quickly talk about how we use to transform, continue to transform our premier agency. As you know, there are 2 major development journey for the agency. One is the sales and the other is a leader development. For the sales journey, as I introduced in the interim result, in addition to the normal AI training, AI recruitment player -- we are able to provide the leads to the aging, help them to nurture needs from the coal to warm to hot and provide them with actionable customer insight. And since then, we continue to involve. Now with advanced agency data mark, we are able to provide aging with personalized development plan, benchmarked against those successful MDRTs and write down our advanced customer data mark and for each the aging of customer we can develop a personalized engagement plan, including how to better serve, how to better engage how to upsell and cross-sell. We already saw some early impact one indicator for the new aging success has been improved 20% in 2025. As for the leader development journey, the similar logic and a similar approach. We are able to provide a leader with personal-line development plan, benchmark against those successful leaders. And for their team members, we can provide the leaders with predictive insight based on the leading behavior data and also, we can provide each member the personalized development plan. As you can see, our number of leader -- new leader has increased by 40%, which is great in the last year. I think the AI support is a key enabler. So with more data, enrich the knowledge library, enhance the capability. We are developing an intelligent it will be no longer just a passive system. It will be a partner and adviser. It can provide the timely proactive, personalized and predictive support to aging and leader. I think the AI definitely will transform the agency channel and will definitely increase the agency value and the customer value significantly in the future.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#23

Thank you, Fisher. Just add on to these, Fisher is sharing -- by saying that we have actually set up a dedicated group innovation office to provide a very structured approach to launch prototypes in individual markets and to industrialize it across our markets and you see some of what Fisher discussed about in China in our Thailand video as well. So now on your question about the growth outlook, I just want to say that we are confident about very confident of our outlook going forward. We achieved very strong results, record VONB and the growth accelerated in the second half, all this supported by very strong foundational drivers. The growth, as we discussed today was broad based. We have a diversified pan-Asian platform very attractive markets with high growth potential in the majority of the markets, we have a leading market position. We have the world's leading primary agency channel, and this is our core growth engine. 73% of our group's VONB comes from a primary agency channel. And we have a complementary profitable partnerships, which provide additional revenue streams for AIA. As you know, we are very focused on writing high-quality new business and now with a very high-quality product mix, a very attractive new business economics. And I would also like to say that I believe that we also have the best balance in the industry, in the region with very strong execution focus. So this gives me the confidence in the outlook for AI going forward. On your third question on China. Again, China delivered a record VONB of $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2025. Very happy to see momentum recover. Actually, last year, when we reported in the first half of the 2025 for China, we explained that driven by economic assumption changes, the growth was impacted but the underlying growth of the business was very strong. And in 2025, the second half, we saw the growth return to 14%, and the momentum continued into 2026 January and February. And this growth is driven by across the existing and new geographies and also across primary agency and bancassurance channels. I'll hand over to Fisher to elaborate.

Fisher Zhang

Executives
#24

Okay. Thanks for the question. I think there are several questions here. Number one, you asked about January and February. The answer is quite short. It's the momentum of the aging and the banks are all very good. So it's driven by both channel and the agency remained the core channel and the core contributor for the group. So that's the number 1 question. Number two, you asked about the can strategy. I think particularly in the bank issuance, I know quite a lot of the domestic company are pushing more the benches. I want to I mentioned a couple of points. Number one, I think the bank insurance channel, as you know, is getting more healthy because some regulatory requirements like [indiscernible], which is kind of alignment with reporting and actual use of the expense and also to reduce the bank fee, reduce the PIR and now gradually shift the parcel, the banker chance is getting healthy. But number two, our strategy is to be differentiated profitable bank insurance. So we kept emphasize that our strategy is we work with selected partners we are doing the deeper collaboration. We focus on those affluent and high net worth customer. And very importantly, we clearly implant those activity management, and we are now exploring the data-based customer-driven strategy. So I think as you can see, our bancassurance channel, the profit margin. The revenue margin is 36% in the last year. So that's our bank strategy. But last but not least, I also want to emphasize the premier agency is still our core strategy. It's still our core advantage, our main channel strategy. I'm very pleased to see the solid growth fundamentals in 2025. As you can see, our number of active new aging increased by 20% and have a number of new leaders increased by 40%, that lay a very good foundation for the future growth. So overall speaking, regarding the channel strategy, I think the premium agency is our core channel and the differentiated profitable bancassurance is highly complementary. Number -- the third question is talking about the deposit migration. I think firstly, we do notice this trend and I think it's a good opportunity for the life insurance industry because now more customers are willing to consider the insurance. And in particular, we also noticed that high net worth is a unique opportunity. That's why we continue to strengthen our high net worth solutions. We continue to strengthen our high net worth ecosystem to innovate induced proposition and also the ecosystem of best of service. But lastly, I also want to emphasize our response to the deposit migration is very selective and the discipline. As you know, our product strategy we focus on the protection and the long-term saving. We try to provide a comprehend source of the product and supported by those ecosystem best service, and together with our professional advice service to satisfy the customer with different needs at a different life stage and the financial stage. So we are not volume driven. So overall speaking, I think for this, our attitude is we are and try to make use of this opportunity, I remain committed to our core strategy.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#25

Just a minor correction to Fisher's answer. The VONB margin of our bancassurance channel in China is 35%.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#26

Thanks, Charles, for the question. And let's move on to the next one.

Operator

Operator
#27

The next question comes from Kailesh Mistry from Deutsche Bank.

Kailesh Mistry

Analysts
#28

First one, simple one, active agent numbers. how did they change in Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. Number two, Singapore NBV, what proportion of that comes from offshore why do customers buy offshore products in Singapore? Is it similar to Hong Kong? And where are they coming from? And what's the outlook for that growth in that offshore segment? And then on the share buyback, just coming back to the earlier question. If I look at Slide 97, is the way to think about this that at the end of the year, you bring the solvency ratio back down towards 200% and then the following year, you reload and then do it all over again. Is that the best way of thinking about how you distribute this excess amount above the 75% payout ratio? And then sorry, lastly, -- just on coming back to AI and tech. Obviously, you've done a lot of great stuff on through your TDA initiatives, et cetera, to prepare for this. But specifically, how are you thinking about the threats and the opportunities from these LLMs that may end up moving the younger generation towards greater personalization and/or price comparison, so on and so forth?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#29

Thank you for your question, Kailesh, and good to see you again. Good to hear from me again. Yes, Premier Agency is our core distribution channel. We have the world's leading agency and it contributes 73% of group VONB and we have #1 MDRT globally for the last 11 years consecutively. And #1 in many of the markets that we operate in, including the markets that you referred to just now. So in terms of active agent numbers, I'll hand over to Jacky to talk about that.

Jacky Chan

Executives
#30

Yes. In fact, I'm very happy to say that we keep tracking all our pages across our business unit. And if you look at our Slide 12, you talk about growing headcount, going new recruit growing new readers and growing a new active agent productivity. I just want to add that our number of active agents did have consistent growth across our major markets. So Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia too.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#31

Thank you. And then I hand over to Hak-Leh to talk about Singapore. Again, Singapore delivered very strong results in 2025.

Hak Leh Tan

Executives
#32

Thank you, Yuan Siong. Thank you, Kailesh, Yes, Singapore delivered a strong VONB growth of 14% in 2025, which was the third consecutive year of strong double-digit growth. As you can see, we have a very broad-based approach in Singapore. It's a multichannel distribution with agency remain the core our agency force has been #1 MDRT for 11 consecutive year and continue to grow in both quality and scale. The number of new recruits increased by close to 5%. Likewise, we also saw a very healthy growth in a number of new leaders. Just in terms of the mix of business, as I mentioned, we are a very broad-based business. We serve both the domestic as well as the offshore market through our agency channel as well as partnership distribution. Our product mix spend the traditional product, unit link as well as participating product. Singapore being a financial hub, we experienced strong growth in offshore business mostly from the region. But I would say, overall, the business in Singapore are still majority from the domestic market to meet their both protection and long-term savings needs.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#33

Garth, on the capital?

Garth Jones

Executives
#34

Yes. Thanks, Kailesh. Yes, I think with the capital management framework well set out, you can see that the net free surplus generation piece is dealt with through the 75% mechanism. And then what we do is we look at the situation each year where we are and look if there's anything in excess of that, that we will return to shareholders. You saw the additional $1 billion that gave us $ 1.7 billion overall for the buyback today. I think we're obviously very comfortable with the 200% level, and we assess that. In some ways, it's a mechanism that makes it more accessible, Kailesh. I think one thing that perhaps helps is to say that we tend to think of it in terms of the absolute amount I think the disclosures you referred to will show how the absolute amounts of each item have moved, including just natural growth in the business. I think that's probably a better guide for you.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#35

Yes. And on your question on AI, as I explained earlier, I'm very excited about the opportunities afforded by AI to augment and elevate our premier agency channel. As I explained, our Premier Agency channel, agents offers personalized advice on products which are critical to customers' physical and financial well-being in a highly regulated environment. So trust and accountable is a key -- is kept offering, and this is hard to replicate with technology alone. In fact, customer survey that we did recently tells us that 85% of our server customers still prefer advice from trusted advisers and only 2% will offer pure digital or AI model. So -- so again, we believe that the investments that we are making into AI as described by Fisher will really elevate and augment our premier agency channel.

Operator

Operator
#36

The next question comes from Leon Qi of CLSA. Leon, please press the new button shown on your screen and ask your question.

Leon Qi

Analysts
#37

This is Leon Qi from CISA. I have 3 questions if possible. Firstly, I want to ask about the capital efficiency. I appreciate in our -- on our slide, Page 21. We have a chart on our capital efficiency. Our per dollar generated from new business investment actually improved a lot. Just wondering how much it has to do with our new product mix. I do understand that, for example, in Mainland China, our participating products is making a much larger portion of all our products. So I just want to understand how much is the contribution from product mix and are other significant factors behind these significant capital efficiency improvement? And secondly, I want to ask about our Hong Kong partnership channels. Very good to see that last year, both our IFA and also bancassurance channel grew more than 40% year-on-year. Interestingly, earlier this week, one of the other Hong Kong insurers has given a very aggressive picture on the Hong Kong broker channel so far this year. And the other Hong Kong insurers seems to have a very different view on the market. So it will be very helpful for us to know our stance on the IFA channel in Hong Kong this year and what is our strategy in this channel? And thirdly, last but not least, I do appreciate our additional disclosure on Thailand and our dedicated video on this interesting market. We have highlighted both our FA and also bank assurance channel in Thailand. But how do we try to materialize the significant opportunities there. I mean, other than Bangkok Bank, which has been very conducive to our results, do we have plans to explore new partners? What about the broker channels there? Agency channel, I understand FA has been doing great. new initiatives on the product front. So what's our plan for the next stage of our Thailand business, which has been very successful over the past few years. So what's next in Thailand?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#38

Thank you Leon, for your question. I'll just start off by saying that we are committed to designing products to address the protection, the long-term savings, life and health insurance needs of our customers across different life stages. We are also committed to writing profitable new business, which will deliver sustainable cash returns to shareholders. So you can see that the new business economics of the new business that we write each year is very, very attractive. We have ample capital resources to support our new business growth ambitions. Garth outlined our capital management framework. And one of the priority uses of the capital is really to support new business growth. Now specific to your question on capital efficiency, I'll hand over to Garth.

Garth Jones

Executives
#39

Yes. Thanks, Yuan Siong. Thanks for the question, Leon. Yes, you can see that the business is highly capital efficient, and we've improved the capital efficiency progressively, not only in terms of the VONB efficiency, but also if you think about it, the IRRs are still very attractive, short payback periods. And importantly, when you look at the cash return in the first 10 years that we get a good cash return from the business as well. So very attractive reinvestment economics in terms of the new business. and that's the first port of call for any access we have. To your specific question, you're quite right that the capital intensity as it were came down over the year. What is driving that, as always, is a mixture of product and country. It's not just product alone. On the product side, the biggest driver there was the move to participating products in China. On the country side, we clearly had more business in Hong Kong with its strong growth, our largest market, and that is very capital efficient business. So there's a country and product mix. But needless to say, we continue to look at ways in which we can improve the capital efficiency even further product by product, country by country.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#40

In terms of Hong Kong, we have a leading position in Hong Kong, the leading brand for insurance in Hong Kong. We are, as I highlighted just now, very strong performance across customer segments, very strong performance across distribution channels, Premier Agency, our core channel. I'm very proud of this agency, 25% of our agents qualifies in 2025. And we have a very good portfolio of our partners, whether it's bank partners or whether it's IPs in Hong Kong that we work closely with. I'll hand over to Jacky to elaborate.

Jacky Chan

Executives
#41

Yes. Thank you for the question. So I also take this opportunity to say that in Hong Kong and Macau, we do have a strategy for IFA broker, which is a selected partnership with a high-quality preferred IFA and brokers. So you know there are thousands of brokers in Hong Kong, but we don't contract more. We are very selective. And you also recall that early last year, AIA Hong Kong, I think from now, we're still the only one. We have step up our requirement for the broadcast to have transparency for referral fee payment to those cases that come from referral business. And then as you know, the Hong Kong AIA also step up some regulator requirement including a referral fee cap, including our commission spending. And for AIA, we have been spending commission for broker for years. We have been giving not just first year, but also spread it to renewal. So in fact, I'm very happy that since last year, with this strategy of partnering with a preferred focus really drive up, I would say, is fight to quality. And our share of wallet at all depends with our preferred partners and there will be growth from IFM 49%. I want to say that this strong momentum continue into first quarter this year.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#42

On Thailand, again, we are the #1 life and health insurer in Thailand with the leading insurance brand. Our premier agency channel, which is our core distribution channel, again, it has a dominant market position in Thailand. And we are also working with a number of bank partners in Thailand, I'll hand over to Hak-Leh to elaborate. Thank you.

Hak Leh Tan

Executives
#43

Thank you, Yuan Siong. Thank you, Leon, for the question. Yes, we are a clear market leader in Thailand with significant competitive advantages across wide spectrum, the business. As Yuan Siong mentioned, our agency force remains our core distribution channel. We are particularly proud of the strong and continuous growth of our FA program. FAs are the program that grow highly productive and professional agents and FA is now contributing to more than 40% of agency force and our agency force is more than 40% of the industry. And despite that, we believe there is still significant room to grow both in scale as well as quality of our agency force in Thailand, so that we can serve the market both the master fund as well as a network market even better. In terms of product proposition, our focus has been on protection and long-term savings. In fact, in third quarter last year, we launched an innovative long-term savings plan for the upfront and high net worth segment, and that's gained very strong traction in fact, by December 2025, our new product contributed to more than 10% of our total long-term savings business. And then we see enormous potential to further broaden to scope our proposition to gain an even bigger share of the front and high network segment as what we've seen in several other markets. So overall, with our clear market positioning and then the clear strategy as what you can see in the presentation that we uploaded this morning, we are very confident that AIA Thailand is even in a position to continue to growth of business in Thailand and continue to serve the customers better.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#44

Okay. Thanks, Leon, for the question. Let's move to the next one, please.

Operator

Operator
#45

The next question comes from Gary Lam of HSBC. Gary estimate shown on your screen and ask your question.

Jia Wei Lam

Analysts
#46

Two questions if I may, 1 big 1 more question. The bigger question is perhaps, can we understand how does the management sort of see the impact from the Middle East contract? Maybe part of that is I can see in Slide 85, over the last year, there's an increase in equity allocation from your investment portfolio. Would you, with some of the elevated market volatility adjust the sort of investment mix of the portfolio? I mean more broadly, which are the key channels that you would focus on, like interest rate channels, distribution channels as a potential impact implications there? Question #2 is part of a follow-up on the Hong Kong business. On VONB, if my calculation is right, actually for the group, it might have slowed down to 10% growth relative to 18% or 19% growth in the first 9 months. So can we understand the key driver underneath is it primarily on Hong Kong, China and particularly on Hong Kong. I here, of course, Fisher's comment that we have been following the commission spread sort of rules similar to HKIA's. But what should we sort of as an understanding of the likely slowdown of Hong Kong 4Q VONB momentum, I guess, particularly maybe on IFA and broker channel? Just trying to differentiate what are the one-off factors versus whether it's a fundamental like just not as strong as before in terms of the momentum?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#47

Thank you, Gary. On the Middle East, like many, we are monitoring developments very closely. And we also, like many hope for please full resolution. We have no direct operating or investment exposure to Iran. And our exposure to the broader Middle East is very small, and we have disclosed it this time now. So any impact to AI would be indirect through movements in the global capital markets rather than any direct exposure, right? So -- but given the very long-term nature of our business, we manage our investments through a disciplined asset liability matching approach. So this helps reduce the impact of market volatility on both profitability and our balance sheet. So also AIA, as you can see, we maintain a very strong capital position, and we calibrate this against a wide range of very severe stress scenarios, which supports our resilience in times of uncertainty. So AIA, we've been around for a long time, and we are a long-term business. and we have proven to be very resilient through multiple cycles and challenges. So now I think that's how -- that's our answer for your question on Middle East. Now in terms of the performance of the group, again, like I said before, very strong performance in 2025, record VONB supported by very strong foundational drivers. Second half actually accelerated growth in second half accelerated versus first half. We have said many times, there are many seasonal factors affecting unique factors affecting quarters. So we don't really manage on a quarter-by-quarter basis. The foundational drivers of our business remain very strong, and we are confident of the outlook going forward.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#48

All right. Thank you for the question, Gary. Let's move to next one.

Operator

Operator
#49

The next question comes from Michael Li of BofA Securities. [Operator Instructions]

Michael Li

Analysts
#50

This is Michael Li from Bank of America. And congratulations on the solid results. I have 2 questions. The first question is about private credit. So I see the slide, you -- on your slide, you disclosed the size, you disclose the percentage. But I still want to confirm something that have you ever talked to your asset managers, those for private credit asset managers if any kind of liquidity limits currently in their phones and if any quality issues in their phones? And what kind of measures will take in the next like few quarters in terms of like private credit investment will increase or decrease? The second thing is still about China business. So I think Fisher answered the questions about China bancassurance business. I think the bankers, the definition of backlashes in AIA and other banks, other insurers could be very different. You focus on your target clients, high net worth and the margin at like 35%, while others had like 10% to 15% margin. So my question is, are you interested in 10% to 15% margin bank business? Are you interested in the mass market in China, if you want to develop your business in those less developed provinces?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#51

Okay. Thank you, Michael. I think you have a specific question on private credit, but before handing over to Garth to talk about the private credit. I just again emphasize that given the long-term nature of our business, so we manage our investments to very disciplined asset liability matching approach. We have very long-term liabilities, very strong balance sheet and large recurring premium. So we have ample financial and liquidity flexibility right? So private market assets actually form an attractive part of the overall matching strategy, providing us with enhanced long-term returns and diversification. So our private asset portfolios are diversified across strategies and across our many asset managers. And we do a lot of testing. And in terms of the liquidity requirements and stress tests, we actually, I think, a very conservative approach by assuming 0 liquidity and no recovery value for -- from our private assets. So we are quite comfortable with the quality and allocation of our private market portfolios. On private credit, actually, is an even smaller proportion. Maybe Garth can elaborate.

Garth Jones

Executives
#52

Yes. Thank you, Yuan Siong. I think as you said, the stress tests are extreme. But you can see the key thing is that it's just 2% of our non-par and surplus assets. It's part of our asset liability matching, which we have a very disciplined asset ALM structure and so on. We're in constant dialogue with the fund managers. We only deal with a very large and a select group of managers and not only in terms of their outlook, but where they're investing and so on. So we think if managed properly, private credit can be an attractive asset class. Perhaps I could ask our CIO, Chief Investment Officer, Dr. Mark Konyn, to perhaps add a little more color. Mark?

Mark Konyn

Executives
#53

Thanks, Garth, and thanks for the question, Michael. Private credit, obviously, is an asset class that has grown very significantly. As a result of changes in the regulatory framework in -- particularly in the United States in the banking industry. And we've kept abreast of those developments very closely. If you think about, as Jensen has mentioned, the underlying ethos of our investment program is to back our long-dated liabilities, both in terms of long-term returns, cash flow, exposure duration exposure. In that context, the private credit has a role to play, but it's relatively small as Garth said, about 2% of the asset base. We have established a number of strategic relationships with key providers largely in the U.S., but not only the U.S. And if you look back at our program, fixed income really is a core competency within our organization and particularly credit. We've developed our own credit capabilities for underwriting going back decades. And if you look across that period, we've suffered de minimis levels of default through that whole period. And this is because of the quality of our underwriting, the risk controls that we apply and the constant reviewing and reporting that we have internally to make sure all times, we understand our exposure. We are extending that approach to private credit. And our teams internally over the last several years have been working closely with our asset management partners to make sure that we understand the exposures that we've got and that we are comfortable with the exposures, to Garth's point. If you think about the exposure that we do have over 60% is to senior secured lending. And this remains the sort of underpin of what we're doing. Obviously, we're conscious of what's going on in the market. It's largely related to retail investors who perhaps didn't fully appreciate the nature of the investments. But I think as Yuan Siong has said as well, liquidity is a key focus for us, and we are not dependent on our private asset program for liquidity.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#54

On your question on China, AIA China, we have a very robust operating model, a very differentiated premier agency channel, and very selective and differentiated partnership distribution channel as well. We are very focused on serving the life and health insurance and long-term savings needs of middle class and affluent families in Mainland China. Many of our -- on average, the middle class and affluent customers, of our agencies of our planning agents in China on average have 5 products with AIA, AIA China. We are also in a very unique position that whereby we are able to expand into new geographies over -- since 2019, we have entered 9 new provinces giving us access to 200 million additional middle class and affluent customers, and we will continue to expand our footprint across China. So AIA China really very much focused on the life and health insurance and long-term savings needs of middle class and affluent customers.

Operator

Operator
#55

The next question comes from Michael Chang of CGSI Securities. [Operator Instructions]

Michael Chang

Analysts
#56

It's Michael here. I have maybe 3 questions. First one is directed at Yuan Siong. Sorry, I have 3 questions here. First one is directed to Yuan Siong. Yuan Siong, just taking a look at the briefing thus far, the questions and taking a look at AIA across time. because talking to investors, prepandemic, AIA, just looking at the VONB growth, it seems to be at a different level from right now. And right now, looking at the outlook, there's a lot of uncertainties introduced by distortions caused by regulation in Hong Kong, in Mainland China. Some of your peers have tried to reduce the uncertainty about the outlook with guidance on, say, new business CSM or VONB, what do you think of the necessity of providing forward guidance on say, key important metrics? So that's one. Secondly, I really appreciate the changing of the wording of the guidance of the operating EPS growth targets, 9%, 11% from 2023 to 2026. But having said that, if I go with that range, this only applies only implies 3% to 9% operating EPS growth for 2026, which I would think should be easily exceeded, at least on my forecast. How should we think about the operating per share growth going forward? Because the CSM is clearly recovering. I think the metrics are clearly improving from the point of AIA. And maybe the last question then relates to the capital front because that's been another area of focus. If I take a look at the required capital under the shareholder capital ratio, there's clearly a slowdown in the required capital growth. It's up 8% year-on-year, 2025. Last year was up 13%. I think that's pretty much a shift to par. And I hear what Garth and Yuan Siong said just now about calibrating this against the CBS stress situation. It's clearly that part products can absorb stress much better. Just want to understand, thirdly, under what conditions would AIA consider changing that are prudent, comfortably above 200% capital ratio level? And then on the leverage front, say considering acquisitions, could there be a change in the leverage as well in the bridge ratio?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#57

Okay. Thank you, Michael. On your question about forward guidance, I think you can see that in 2025 and even earlier years since COVID. We have delivered a very strong performance, and I believe sustainable performance in our key financial metrics are including VONB, EV equity or OPAT and ROEV and ROE are at record levels now. So I think we operate in markets, as I said, with highly attractive growth opportunities for Asia. We are pan-Asian diversified business. And that gives us greater diversification. And the market in these markets, and the majority of them, we actually have market-leading positions with a very strong competitive advantages, including our Premier Agency channel. So I think the record speaks for itself in terms of the ability to deliver strong, consistent performance across market cycles, right? Now in terms of the OPAT per share target, okay, I just remind you that, first of all, we are actually quite well progressed to meet or exceed this OPAT per share growth targets were set for 2023 to 2026. As you recall, you may recall, this target was introduced during the transition from IFRS 4 to IFRS 17, and it was to help the market better understand the impact of the transition of the 2 accounting standards, which is not -- which is actually pretty complex. So that is why the main consideration at that time for us to give this OpEx per share target. Now by the end of 2026, you will have 5 years of historical data with each to more accurately model the IFRS 17 earnings trajectory. And with the transparency of the IFRS 17 model, I think it is quite entirely doable. And on the capital question, I'll hand over to maybe Garth.

Garth Jones

Executives
#58

Yes. Thanks, Michael. On the required capital, there are a number of things that drive the required capital. Clearly, product is 1 of those and participating business. You have to remember, that has to be added to the in-force business. So there's a slow progression as you change the mix of business. Required capital also depends obviously on things such as interest rates and our strategic asset allocation that goes behind that and any regulatory changes. We continue to review that. We've reviewed it in the past and we look at our stress tests. That's where we came up with the comfortably above 100% level. We're very happy with that level at present, and it's part of our overall capital framework. Okay. Great. Michael, did I cover your question? Leverage. Sorry, we got to over leverage certainly. We're very comfortable with our leverage levels, Michael. We're very comfortable with our ratings. We clearly have some headroom within the ratings, but we like where we are. We have strong financial flexibility. And we feel that the current leverage level is appropriate. We added some more debt during the year. But obviously, as the business grows, then the leverage ratio will move along but we're very comfortable where we are.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#59

We have time for one final question.

Operator

Operator
#60

Yes. The last question comes from Richard Xu of Morgan Stanley. [Operator Instructions]

Richard Xu

Analysts
#61

Sure. Thank you for the opportunity for the last question. I got 2 questions. One back to Hong Kong. So we're seeing some, obviously, RMB appreciation in the beginning of the year. Is there any impact on the Hong Kong business temporarily? And also, obviously, we heard there are some changes on the commission distribution to the agencies and whether that will impact the competitive landscape in Hong Kong were recruiting or some of these business growth in the near term, I guess, medium term as well? And secondly is on China. We see healthy outlook in the first couple of months. Can we get a little bit more on sort of like the volume versus margins and product mix on that front. And also on China, a lot of domestic life insurance are still heavily investing in health services, et cetera. Are we expanding any services or product on that front as well?

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#62

Okay. Thank you, Richard. On your question on Hong Kong and the demand, as I said, at the beginning. In terms of the outlook for demand, both from the domestic and the overseas segment and overseas segment as the vast majority. The outlook for demand from these 2 segments is a very, very strong and we are very confident of the -- that there will be sustained demand coming from these 2 segments. So any short-term movements in exchange rate actually does not affect this strong demand for Hong Kong insurance products. So maybe Jacky is closer to the market. He may like to elaborate further.

Jacky Chan

Executives
#63

Yes. I just like to add that the MCV business to Hong Kong has been here for more than 2 decades. And we went through different cycles of renminbi appreciation, depreciation. And in fact, the demand of MCV customer to the Hong Kong insurance product is largely from the attractive proposition available in Hong Kong and also the demand for the diversification of wealth management to Hong Kong we really don't see the renminbi appreciation has any major impact to our business. And as to your question on commission spending requirement, in fact, AIA Hong Kong has been applying a kind of commission spending already because of encouragement of servicing of our agent to the existing customer and also align more in the long-term interest of the customer. We are already applying renewable kind of compensation. So the necessary change to our convention actually is minimal, and it doesn't affect any of our business momentum from the agency force.

Yuan Siong Lee

Executives
#64

Yes. And on the question on China, in terms of like the VONB in the January and February, we did not disclose this information. But in terms of like your question on the proposition development in the Mainland China market. I'll hand over to Fisher to talk about.

Fisher Zhang

Executives
#65

So thanks for the question. Number one, I think we are focused on the protection and long-term savings. As I said, we provide a comprehensive suite of the product supported by ecosystem-based service. So maybe let me talk about the product first. As you know, AIA China is almost the very few insurance companies who are still very keen on the protection. So we have observed -- even in the last year, we observed a double-digit growth in the CI. We continue to innovate in the product. I give you some typical example. Number one is our part CI. It's very, very received in the second half of last year because with the pie can address upside potential. And then number two, we developed a module-based medical device which is also very well received by the market because we put the different key elements like VIP room, advanced drugs into the each module. So the customer can base on their affordability to choose a different package. We call it the DIY Medical. That is very well received by the market. And very importantly, I want to also let you know in this year, the Shanghai government launched a pilot allow the personal account of the social medical insurance to buy the commercial insurance through the aging. We are the first one to be chosen and now we already have sold to the more than 10,000 customers. That is a very good. We continue to also innovate in the long-term saving like a deferred annuity, immediate annuity, quite a lot of new innovation in the product side. And sadly, I want to talk about the ecosystem-based service. As you know, since 8 years ago, we already started to build a solid a comprehensive ecosystem, including the hospital network, the health care ecosystem and also the retirement-related ecosystem. We can provide a tailored service take retirement as an example, in the strong capable period, less capable period, disabled period, terminal period. So it's a very flexible tailor and we also provide a timely concierge of service. So that kind of a service has a strong enabler and empowerment to our strong proposition. So we also continue to strengthen the different segment. Number one, I'll give you a typical example. We are the first company to go to the substandard segment. We developed the SOCI, which is very well received by the customer. And I just mentioned the high network segment. We continue to innovate. Recently, we launched tech service example. We launched in the private family hospital. And for the product, we capped with trust. We launched the insurance charter 3.0. So in summary, I want to let you know our high-level strategy is we, again, a comprehensive suite of product is number one; and number two, equipped by same ecosystem-based service; and number three, please don't forget, that is our core advantage, professional adviser service by our premier agency and differentiated profitable bankers. I think that, that's a basic summary.

Unknown Executive

Executives
#66

All right. Thanks for the questions, Richard. I think that's what we've got time for today. If there are any follow-up questions or any further questions, please feel free to get in touch with us in Investor Relations. Thank you.

Operator

Operator
#67

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes AIA's 2025 Annual Results Q&A section. Thank you for your participation.

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