AirAsia X Berhad (AAX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hi everyone. Greeting, everyone. Welcome to Asia X (sic) [ AirAsia X] First Quarter Results briefing. Today here with me, I have Bo Lingam, Group CEO; Farouk Ahmad, Deputy CEO; Kar Chuan, Group CFO; Lavinia, Group Head of Finance; Amanda, Chief Commercial Officer. The Bursa results has just been uploaded, and we would like to go through the results. But before that, I can give you some reporting structure guide. [Technical Difficulty] So in -- on 16th January, we completed the acquisition by AirAsia X of acquiring AirAsia Berhad and AirAsia Group. However, under accounting standard [Technical Difficulty] -- however, under accounting standard, this is treated as a reverse accounting. For reporting purposes, AAGL (sic) [ AAAGL ] is treated as the acquirer. In the Bursa statement that you will see today, there is no comparative P&L and cash flow as it is not an apple-to-apple comparison. So therefore, we have only the first quarter 2025 comparatives for P&L and cash flow. As for the balance sheet, the 31st December 2025 actually refers to only AAAGL, which is the Thai, Indonesia, Philippines and Cambodian entities, but excludes the original AirAsia X and AirAsia Berhad. Therefore, it does not represent the enlarged group. And at the back of this presentation, we have included the pro forma financials for your guidance in terms of when one to do the comparison. I'll pass the presentation to Farouk.

Hi, good evening, everybody. So I'll just run through the presentation before we go to questions. The first Q headline is underpinned by strong underlying operating profit, albeit we faced some higher fuel prices seen in March. On 16th January, we undertook the massive strategic milestone, which was the aviation consolidation, bringing seven airlines under a single streamlined platform. So as everyone is aware, this is our first ever results as a combined entity, unlocking network and cost synergies together with it. In terms of 1Q operating statistics, it is underpinned by resilient demand. We carried 90 million passengers, a 9% increase with a 10% expansion in capacity. Load factor remains very healthy at 85%, which validates our brand dominance in the region. Financially, the underlying results prove our new structure works. We achieved an NOP of MYR 199 million and an EBITDA of about MYR 1 billion, representing 17% and 3% margin, respectively. This is also despite absorbing approximately MYR 200 million additional fuel bill, ringgit in March. Bottom line PAT loss of MYR 129 million is due to non-FX -- noncash net FX loss of about MYR 232 million, if you strip that away, our core airline operations remains profitable. The challenge in March was when fuel surpassed $200 per barrel. In Malaysia, we faced a weekly pricing mechanism. In some of the jurisdictions under our group, the pricing mechanism is adjusted monthly. Regional markets benefited from a lag effect due to that, which provided a temporary buffer for the first Q. Due to the fuel prices, we've pivoted to a marginal volume strategy despite -- we've been disciplined with capacity cuts, which is approximately 10% year-on-year. For the second quarter and higher fare adjustments have been incorporated to defend our yield integrity. This is something that we, of course, do and monitor on a week-to-week basis, day-to-day basis amongst the senior management group. And for the quarter also, we improved the liquidity by securing approximately USD 300 million of financing, which demonstrates the resilience of our business also despite the difficulties in the market at the moment. In terms of future proofing our fleet, the first 321LR (sic) [ A321LR ] has been delivered to us at the end of April. And also, as you are aware, we've recently announced also order book of A220s, which is also for us to plan for the future. So given the current fluidity in the markets, we have to temporarily withhold the 2026 internal targets. I think we will come back with them once we have a bit a bit more certainty in how the Middle East outcome pans out. In terms of focus, the priority remains to maintaining robust cash flow and maintaining strict hurdle-rate discipline. I move to Page 5. Again, the results is defined by resilient core operations despite a fuel spike in March, top line of about MYR 5.95 billion, 2% increase year-on-year. Fundamentally, it's been volume-driven growth, which is a 9% surge in passenger traffic. Volume successfully neutralized the softening of average fares and RASK, which is roughly about 4%. So demand was strong as we restored capacity to 98% of pre-pandemic levels, achieved an EBITDA of about MYR 1.01 billion, 17% margin. Again, performance was moderated by a 4% increase in fuel expenses, which was driven by an 8% fuel price spike for the period. We cushioned the impact through aggressive operational discipline. Maintenance costs was down 7% year-on-year. And again, as highlighted, NOP 200 million, 3% margin, capacity ramp-up, the higher depreciation offset was offset by a 25% reduction in lease finance costs. Okay. Bottom line, as highlighted, was hit by the MYR 232 million noncash unrealized FX, but the core profitability remained robust at MYR 100 million ex ForEx. Page 6 just talks about some statistics. We carry 18.9 million passengers, 9% year-on-year with a strategic capacity expansion of 10%, sustained load factor of 85% and our strategic deployment matched the market and we were adding the right seats. In terms of pax, pax growth March such -- pax growth of 19% outpaced capacity by 15%. This was, of course, driven by the positive demand during the period with strong pricing leverage. We proactively adjusted fares and fuel surcharges to offset rising costs during this period. We were one of the first movers to do so. and maintaining agility was key to protecting the margins during the cost spikes. We successfully captured redirected European-Asia flows via Central Asia corridors in March, geopolitical shift drove our Fly-Thru synergies across our Asean network and the multi-hub strategy that we have offered global alternatives to passengers. Ancillary spend was about MYR 55 per pax. It continues to be 18% of our total revenue ancillary. It acts as a high margin cushion against fuel and currency volatility. Per pax spend was down, but this was driven by tactical baggage pricing used to protect market share on certain competitive routes. Ancillary remains a fundamental pillar of our profitability model, and we continue to fine-tune it in line with market conditions. Okay. We go to operating cost, Page 7. Total operating cost improved to MYR 0.185, which was a 3% drop. We successfully managed to spread cost over a large capacity base, which is a 6% increase on the ASK. This was driven by a drop primarily driven by user charges, maintenance as well as finance cost lease liability. In terms of user charges, there was a reclassification into other OpEx. And the maintenance and overhaul charges dropped 12%. savings was driven by the normalization of our maintenance profile. Operating CASK ex-fuel improved by 13% to MYR 0.141. This again proves the core airline operations becoming leaner and more efficient and benefiting from a stronger ringgit. Ancillary again, represents 18% of group revenue. There was -- we recorded ancillary of about MYR 1.1 billion. Baggage continues to remain core at MYR 676 million, 61% of total ancillary. It was down year-on-year due to competitive tactical pricing strategies. Seat selection increased 13%, driven -- was a strong growth driven by improved dynamic upselling at key digital touch points and higher pack loads. Fly-Thru, as highlighted, increased 9% due to improved network connectivity, including capturing high-value travelers moving between Europe-Asia through our hubs. As highlighted earlier, it was roughly about MYR 55 per pax. I highlighted also just now this continues to be a high-margin stream and it acts as one of the key shields against fuel spikes and currency shifts in the market. In terms of outlook, as highlighted in one of those remarks recently, the energy crisis has begun to weigh on what had been a great year, start to the year. In the first two months of 2026, we were firmly on track to meet our internal targets, achieving an NOP margin of close to 9% as we benefited from the peak travel season. But unfortunately, the sudden fuel spike in March resulted in an additional fuel bill of MYR 200 million. Because those tickets were sold in advance, there was a timing gap in our ability to pass through these costs, ultimately leading us to close the quarter with an NOP margin of only 3%. Our primary objective going forward is to continue to recover these margins. We are navigating this environment with tactical agility, pivoting our strategy to prioritize yield and margin protection over pure volume. I'll just run through some of the specifics towards that. In terms of how we manage this current environment. I think the sharp spike in fuel prices will continue to persist, albeit it has come down from its highs. I think it's trading now around $150, $160 levels. And we continue to be vigilant in monitoring this on a day-to-day basis in terms of how we react to this high price environment. In terms of managing this, we have a 2-phase approach to it. Number one is obviously to defend the top line. So again, as I highlighted, we were the first airline in the region to increase fuel surcharge and raise fares. This is something that we will continue to monitor on a day-to-day, week-by-week basis. On an ancillary basis, we will push high-margin products such as seat selection, meals and baggage to reduce our reliance on the fare increases. On Phase 2, we will protect the bottom line through network discipline. We suspended 21 underperforming routes and reduced frequencies. As conditions improve, we will look to reactivate them in due course. We also consolidate routes that fail to meet hurdle rates at current oil prices, and we are projecting 10% year-on-year capacity cuts for the second quarter at the moment. In terms of cost rationalization and efficiency, we've implemented hiring freeze, renegotiation with our supplier contracts and various other initiatives have also been done on the cost side. In terms of our fleet, Page 12, the top priority remains on getting the remaining aircraft out of storage and full reactivation. At the same time, we are also working proactively on our fleet management to ensure that we have optimal fleet utilization. We are returning -- we took advantage of the current environment to opportunistically return 14 aircraft for redelivery at favorable terms where we have accelerated another six aircraft for this year. In terms of future plans, as I highlighted, we have LR deliveries coming on stream into our fleet, and we also recently announced the 150 Narrowbody A220 order book. Next page, in terms of financial resilience and cash flow. We successfully drew down $300 million in March 2026 at much more favorable rates than our existing borrowings. Our objective is to continue to reduce our near-term principal obligations and then improving on the long-term financial stability. In terms of current initiatives, I think we've highlighted this also in the past. We're doing a new private/public bond issuance sometimes in 2Q to 3Q. We also actively engaged with local and foreign financial institutions to secure better financing terms and to strengthen our cash availability for the period. In terms of cash preservation, we suspended all nonessential OpEx and discretionary corporate spending. We have also reduced duty travel. There's also hiring freeze as highlighted. And we've also optimized our payment cycles with our key vendor relationships. We're working very closely also with the regional governments to identify and mitigate any cost burdens to the airline industry. Government advocacy is something that we are continuously doing, and we are seeing positive signs towards that and we should come on stream hopefully soon. Growth remains to be important because we need to look beyond this current crisis. So in terms of fleet activation (sic) [ reactivation ], the final hurdle towards full capacity this year is on target amidst active capacity management that we are currently undertaking. We target all aircraft back online by the third quarter this year. Again, as highlighted, we do have A321LR deliveries, which has extended range, and this will reduce our widebody aircraft needs going forward. And we recently just highlighted we had a launch customer for an A220 order book, which is 150 aircraft, 160-seat configuration with the potential to upsize to a further 300 in the future. I think that's it in terms of running through the presentation, we can open up for Q&A, I think.

Yes. Thank you, Farouk. [Operator Instructions] Any questions from the investment community? Daniel, you can go ahead and unmute.

Okay. On your minority interest, can you give me EBITDA on the minority interest?

And what?

Minority interest.

Minority interest. We have included a page in the last page for the NOP share of the minority interest.

Last page in the…

Yes, presentation deck. I knew you asked this question.

I'm not sure, we have this. [indiscernible].

Yes, it's right on the screen. It's MYR 104 million.

MYR 104 million I mean between Thailand, Indonesia, how much was?

We can e-mail you, Daniel, if you have any other questions?

And then on your ForEx loss, can you give me a breakdown where does it come from?

Yes, we e-mail you.

And then for this year, this first quarter, how many aircraft still in storage for this MYR 100 million cost that you say is now.

It's going through checks.

Yes.

One is in storage, waiting for engine replacement, five already undergoing checks now.

So in total there is six aircraft?

Yes.

In first quarter?

Yes.

Yes.

Is this aircraft under storage. And then, going in concern then… are the aircrafts not going on check now?

When undergoing check or when it's out of storage and going under check and most probably will be up today is what June. June will be all serviceable.

These are pending engines?

No, no, no. On aircraft pending engine, the rest all are just for your normal pre-checks.

That's [indiscernible].

Sam? Samuel?

I have some questions regarding capacity and fuel supply. So capacity is a 10% cut in capacity for the second quarter. Is that year-on-year or compared to precrisis?

Year-on-year.

Year-on-year. Okay. I understand in the third quarter, it will be more like 15-odd percent. Is that correct? Or should we go back.

Yes. We are actually watching it almost every day and every month. We have not done any forward capacity cut after Q2.

All right. So I just assume 10% so far, right?

Hmm.

All right. Okay. And then on the fuel side, I want to ask on the fuel price on the paper market as in the Bloomberg price, it's dropped about $150. But are you actually paying $150 because I heard in some regional areas, the so-called more rural or for lack of better -- the more urban areas, the fuel price should be a lot higher. So

Yes, that's the de facto. Yes, it's only clear, but maybe those were outside of the pipeline, then it's called a de facto.

All right. Is the de facto same as precrisis or the de facto, are a lot higher?

Contractor is the same.

Same de facto.

Yes, was only the fuel.

So I would say that the fuel market is right, whether it is $150 now but the de facto increase as to de facto [indiscernible], right?

Yes.

Okay. All right.

Having said that Malaysia, there is a more surcharge right extra MYR 0.08. Farouk?

Yes.

There is a $150 plus because of tankering it from -- so the extra war surcharge.

Is that $150 a barrel or $150.

It is about $0.08 per liter.

All right. Okay. Right, right, okay, okay. Understood. Also wanted to ask a more technical question. My understanding is that for Malaysia, jet fuel supply, we are okay until about mid-June -- sorry, mid-July to third week of July. But for the other countries, what is the situation like?

Other countries, no issue. I think why they say this thing because the current supply where they're getting -- so for Malaysia, they'll be going to other places to get just that the price will be a bit more higher. That's all.

Right.

So Vietnam earlier, they had an issue, but which they only had a quota, but now it's okay. Thailand is okay. China is okay. India, I'm only reading on what's on reports, but nothing has been given to us officially. So far, we have not had any issues anywhere yet. [Technical Difficulty]

Right. So is it fair to say that it's -- I mean the visibility is short, let's say, 2 months, 3 months, but this visibility is always rolling forward, meaning the countries that you operate in are constantly being resupplied, refilled. So there is no -- there's not much risk of going to like few cliff where…

Correct.

Okay. All right. Okay. So visibility is short, but no one is falling off a cliff.

No, no. I mean just to give you an example, in the case of Thailand, they have adequate supply for the whole year.

For the whole year?

Yes, yes.

Okay. That's right. That is very, very good to know.

And I think that's representative of the environment generally.

Okay. I see. All right. Just wondering all this -- I mean, just go back to AirAsia X, the old AirAsia X, the long-haul route. So all those newly launched routes like Istanbul, Almaty, Tashkent, are they still going to be served? Or is there a chance that they're going to get in?

Almaty and Turkey is there. I think Tashkent, we are suspending for a bit, right?

We do capacity management.

Capacity management, so we reduced the flight to Tashkent.

All right. Okay.

Others are still on that.

We have questions from the chat. Based on the current average fare yield and existing fuel surcharge, at what threshold for jet fuel does the group achieve operational breakeven?

It's hard to give an answer to this one.

Because it's always changing…

[Technical Difficulty] understand, the fuel dynamics are the -- a bit more monthly basis, more so [Technical Difficulty] are monthly i.e., the last month average, average for this month [Technical Difficulty] also, adjusting is one, I think it's all in the trailer, added fuel price and second we also looking at recovering whatever [Technical Difficulty] we got to be mindful of we monitoring of preference…

Preference, highest.

Or just to higher price also on market.

Second question is the margin over volume strategy implying structurally a slower passenger growth ahead. If fuel remains elevated for 12 months, what additional structural cost cuts remain available beyond hiring freeze and route suspension?

Well, I don't think it's representative of the passenger necessarily. But when we go to -- when we do this as a team, we look at route profitability route by route, right? So when -- as best as we can now in this current environment, we will preserve the margin for those routes, right, accordingly. So that's what we've been doing in the past 2 months and a bit. If fuel remains elevated, I think there are various levers that we can further incorporate. But I think for the most part, it would be those kind of initiatives, which is, again, driven by the route profitability of every single route that we look at. And we just need to manage the profitability of those routes accordingly in the next 12 months. The good news is that we see that at the moment, the price has come off. In our discussions with our suppliers, this is also driven by the panic element of the early periods subsiding. There was a lot of panic buying and a lot of uncertainty at the time. So that element has already gone away, and we see a bit more downward trending, so to speak, right, of the fuel price environment.

The next question is if jet fuel prices were to stay elevated around $150 per barrel for a sustained period, could you help quantify the potential downside to AirAsia X's profitability and margins under a worst-case scenario?

It's a tough question. I think it is very fluid at the moment to provide that kind of guidance. We do manage this and monitor this on a daily basis. But suffice to say that at the moment, the priority is to maintain cash flow and EBITDA positive for the period through the levers that we have driven by capacity as well as through the fares and cost discipline.

The next question is despite softer consumer sentiment globally, AirAsia ticket prices have remained relatively resilient. Question for Amanda. Are you still seeing strong forward booking yields? Are there signs of pricing pressure emerging in certain routes?

Overall, for April and May, growth has already gone beyond 80%. For May itself, we are targeting to close beyond 80% as well. In terms of fare wise, at this point of time, definitely, there's a fare hikes. Currently, we are trending around about 20% of fare hikes which is last year. And also, by the way, just to note is this quarter is always a lean quarter post all festives in some of the major markets like Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, after Easter as well as the Australian market as well.

Next question is, is there a need to beef up the shareholding fund to prevent PN17?

I mean we do explore all options. From -- I mean, I look at this more from a fundraising perspective. So we don't discount any avenues for fundraising. Of course, as you are aware, we do have the annual mandate that we can tap on as well as all the other fundraising initiatives that I highlighted earlier. But I don't necessarily rule out any fundraising opportunity at the moment.

Can you share more about the government support that you are getting?

Some of this, I cannot share yet because of the nature of the transaction, but there's been a lot of government advocacy in terms of reducing the cost charges that are incurred in the airline business from an airport perspective. We've also been discussing with the government to support on extending credit terms in order to match the cash flow profile of the business currently. So it's along those lines kind of currently.

Next question for Amanda. How is the China recovery progressing versus management's original expectation? Load factors and yields already back to pre-pandemic economies? Or is pricing competition still intense?

For China, it's a bit tricky right now as most of the Chinese carrier, we don't see much of a fare hike yet. And also the main Chinese carrier, we are seeing them cutting capacity. I think you have seen some of them in the news really quietly cutting capacity. And sort of overall, for us as well, we have trimmed down some of the nonprofitable routes for China market.

There's no more questions in the chat. Is there any more questions from the floor? Not floor, sorry, from call. Daniel, you have your next question.

As of today in operation now you guys already raised ticket prices to adjust higher fuel charges and [ major things on this ]. So are you guys profitable or breakeven more?

When you are asking?

Which period?

This May period.

Are we allowed to say, yes. [Technical Difficulty]

[Technical Difficulty] on going and of course, we price our [Technical Difficulty] certain key cost [Technical Difficulty] breakeven at this juncture [Technical Difficulty].

For your first half, what does I am looking at?

What the low factor [Technical Difficulty], the low factor.

We are targeting to go beyond 80%. Current pacing or today pacing is good.