Aktieselskabet Schouw & Co. (SCHO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to Schouw & Co. and to our annual report 2024 presentation. I will, as usual, do the full presentation, and then afterwards, open for questions. Our business model, we think, is more resilient to turbulence due to a few -- or some factors: among other things, our diverse portfolio of relevant business-to-business companies, our long-term and active ownership philosophy, and not least, our focus on results are created by people. 2024 was a year of turbulence but also with a solid progress from Schouw & Co. I'm really very satisfied and also pleased with the way we managed to maneuver through. Let me just take you through some of our key figures. Starting with our revenue, we didn't grow our top line in 2024, but it was reduced 7% to DKK 34.7 billion. However, we delivered record-high EBITDA, up 3% to DKK 2.93 billion. Cash flow from our operations was very positive and all-time high, up 44% to DKK 2.5 billion. We continue to reduce our emissions. And our net working capital steady down to DKK 6.77 billion. We think we built a very solid base for also continue to deliver in the coming years. Looking into our net working capital, we reduced it with DKK 450 million, and we will also, in the coming year and the coming years, continue really to drive and push our net working capital and also continue really to deliver very strong cash flow. We have programs going on across the board. Our customers, however, they are becoming more demanding on payment terms, and we really need to balance the risk and look after what's going on, on the receivable side. From that on, just looking a little bit in also to our net debt, which increased -- decreased following our very strong cash flow generation. We are now well below 2-point leverage on EBITDA. And I think we built our cash flow from 3 different things. We had a very decent investment level going on. We have been prudent on the investments in 2024, investment level of DKK 685 million. We provided dividend and share buyback to our shareholders of DKK 644 million. And as I said, our leverage, well below the 2-point marker, and it's well in our leverage target of 1.0 to 2.5. We think with this net interest-bearing debt position, we are very well positioned also to take opportunities in the future, what might come. Then pushing on to our portfolio companies, starting with BioMar, the largest company in our portfolio. It performed very, very well throughout 2024. BioMar have really continued its strong focus on innovation and thereby also built strong positions in the market. Top line, however, was down 70% (sic) [ 7% ] to DKK 16.6 billion. Volume delivered was 1.37 million tonnes across all companies. We saw volume in our big salmon markets lower than previous years, but that was on purpose. We continue to push our strategy to leave nonattractive tenders and contracts. The EBITDA, however, was very strong, up 18% to DKK 1.47 billion. Our large markets performed very well. We had continuously focused on our commercial excellence and also a very positive effect from good sales of our strong functional feed offerings. BioMar delivered a very strong cash flow of DKK 1.6 billion, which was also very satisfying. Especially, Q4 '24 was very strong on cash flow. We are continuing to investigate a potential IPO of BioMar. It's still ongoing. And to be honest, there are not much news to report on that. It's still in the investigation phase. BioMar, however, expect to continue its profitability journey also in 2025. Turnover now expected in the range of DKK 1.6 billion to DKK 1.7 billion (sic) [ DKK 16 billion to DKK 17 billion ] and EBITDA in a range of DKK 1.47 billion to DKK 1.57 billion. BioMar really continue to drive innovation and also really pushing hard on their profitable market strategy. From BioMar, then moving on to GPV. GPV operating in the real -- as a sub-supplier in the -- to the global industrial companies. GPV saw, in 2024, very volatile markets, and demand was soft from some of the very large global customers. Top line was, as expected, lower than '23, 15% down to DKK 8.9 billion. EBITDA also down 16% to DKK 625 million. Of course, here, we experienced full effect from lower volume, but also we had -- took on quite significant amount of costs to continue to develop. GPV also prepared GPV for future. We are implementing a new IT system throughout the company and also looked a lot into our global footprint where we had some one-off costs going on. However, also the organization and cost base has been prudently adjusted throughout '24. I think as we speak, we are around 1,000 employees low than in 2023. A lot of footprint initiatives has been decided to get full effect of synergies and also to increase efficiency. Looking into 2025, we will continue that journey, and we have put aside one-offs in the tune of DKK 40 million to cover that in 2025. We expect the soft demand to continue in the first half of 2025, but we are cautiously optimistic also on that business globally will take off in the second half. Top line expected to be DKK 8.7 billion to DKK 9.3 billion. EBITDA in the range of DKK 590 million to DKK 650 million, and that's including the expected one-off of DKK 40 million. We have an all-time high project pipeline really to support our future. A lot of interesting customers are knocking on the door with GPV, and we are quite optimistic on the future potential of GPV. Moving on from GPV to HydraSpecma. We experienced that HydraSpecma really delivered very strong results in rather difficult markets. Top line was up 2% to DKK 3.0 billion turnover. That was really a mark for Hydra to pass the DKK 3 billion turnover. Continued very good traction in Renewables. EBITDA also increased 5% up to DKK 339 million. Across the board, in HydraSpecma, we experienced very high efficiency, strong cost control throughout the company, and we continue to see benefits from the investments from previous years and also synergies from the acquisition of Ymer. HydraSpecma is preparing for future and adjusting both footprint and costs. We expect one-off costs of that exercise of the tune of DKK 30 million in 2025. However, a sale of a previous production facility in Poland will be able to offset part of these one-off costs. We expect to continue to grow HydraSpecma and build profitability also in 2025. Top line, DKK 2.9 billion to DKK 3.2 billion; EBITDA, in the range of DKK 340 million to DKK 370 million. We'll also push hard at HydraSpecma to continue to drive innovation and look for new solution provider opportunities across its markets. Then moving on to Borg. Borg managed to deliver growth in a market with a really fierce competition, particularly strong competition on some of our key products. Top line, however, up 5% to DKK 2 billion. Especially, our Newman segment and what we call low-volume segments drove this uplift. EBITDA also up 11% to DKK 171 million. Here, we saw the effect of product mix and also efficiency with a very positive effect. However, our salaries in Poland increased significantly. It has been very difficult to offset these very large increases in our pricing. Borg is building an even stronger position in best-cost countries. We acquired ERT in Tunisia, a company that has been supplying Borg with the starters and alternators over the last years. But now, we are 100% in control of this company, and we really intend to develop that platform even further. Borg expects, despite very tough competition, to grow market share. Top line expected in the range of DKK 2.1 billion to DKK 2.3 billion; EBITDA, in the range of DKK 170 million to DKK 200 million. And this guidance is built on full focus on efficiency and utilizing its entire footprint also in best-cost countries. Then, moving on to Fibertex Personal Care. Fibertex Personal Care is really hampered by declining Asian markets. We are, as you know, rather big here with 2 large factories in Malaysia. Flat top line of DKK 1.9 billion, despite a volume increase of 4%, coming from especially our European markets. They performed very well and underlined also Fibertex Personal Care's very strong position in these markets. EBITDA, however, down 29% to DKK 187 million. We saw a full effect of very low margins in Asia, also a negative effect from lower volumes and efficiency in Asia, when we also decided to close down temporarily our -- one of our factories in Malaysia, and one-off costs from that is also in the actual EBITDA figures. We have a full focus on regaining volume and utilize our Malaysia capacity, trying to open new geographics, new markets, driving innovation. Maybe we have seen that the demand -- the soft demand in Asia start to bottom out. Let's see. But it could be potential that in 2025, we would see a small take-up in the market. Top line, expected to be DKK 1.4 billion to DKK 1.6 billion, again, building on Asia, low volume in Asia. EBITDA, DKK 130 million to DKK 160 million, also impacted by our rejection of very low-margin contracts in the Asian market. Then last but not least, our Fibertex Nonwovens continued to grow despite challenging U.S. market. Top line increased 4% to DKK 2.2 billion, and our volumes were up 10%. Especially, our European segments have been doing very well, continue to do very well. We also saw a satisfying EBITDA development, up 15% to DKK 194 million. Here, positive effect from margin management and product mix, tight cost control in general and then a negative effect from a difficult production start-up and low profitability in U.S. However, productivity and efficiency in U.S. really improving. We have full focus on lifting profitability in the U.S. over the coming years. Fibertex Nonwovens has a very attractive customer pipeline in U.S., and we intend to deliver on that and then, of course, continue to drive efficiency and output. Fibertex Nonwovens expect to build on strong platform and continue to grow. Top line, DKK 2.3 billion to DKK 2.5 billion; and EBITDA, in the range of DKK 200 million to DKK 230 million. Then just a few words on our CapEx investments. As you all know, Schouw & Co., we have, over the years, invested quite significantly in capacity. It's part of our business model to secure sufficient capacity in the markets. But we continue to have a very strong focus on capital. We intend to drive even harder on cash flow, reduce our net working capital and then continue to be prudent on CapEx and spendings throughout 2025. As you see here, we expect CapEx a little higher in 2025 than in 2024, but let's see what happens over the year. But however, also Schouw & Co. continue to grow and invest when needed. So concluding, just looking at the guidance for 2025, I would say that we are cautiously optimistic on 2025 in spite of how the world is looking. We have a very solid and well-invested platform. We have very important, strong and long-lasting customer relations. And we have, throughout all our companies, a strong focus on profitability and continuous improvements, meaning turnover expected in the range of DKK 33.4 billion to DKK 35.9 billion and EBITDA in a range of DKK 2.83 billion to DKK 3.12 billion. And that is, as we speak, what we see, and that's what we guide, and we are optimistic on our solid platform. So with these closing remarks, I would like to open up for questions.

Emil Haargaard, Carnegie.

Yes. I have a couple of questions, so I will take them one by one. I think I'll start off with a question to the announcement you came with in connection with the Q2 report regarding a possible separate listing of BioMar because this has, for obvious reasons, attracted some attention. So any flavor and comments you could provide on that? And if possible, a time line on when you expect to have a final decision on the outcome of this evaluation would be much appreciated.

Yes, we are still -- thank you for the question, Emil. We are still, as I said, investigating and working hard on it. We have nothing more really clear to say. Expect that it can earliest be second half of '25 if we are doing something. But of course, decision gets closer and closer on, and a lot of work is really going on, considering what to do.

Okay. So can you say, should we expect a decision before the summer? Or can you be any specific on that part?

To be honest, I would very much like to give you a specific date and so on, but we don't do that because then we know you remember. We work hard on it, and we also -- it's also important for the company and everyone that we really push on and get a decision taken, so everyone knows where they are. But we are working hard on it, but no confirmation of dates or anything.

All right. That's fair. So the next question is also on BioMar. So as you mentioned, BioMar delivered a very strong performance throughout 2024, with an EBITDA margin at the upper end of your long-term ambition of this 7% to 9%. And you're guiding implicitly for an EBITDA margin of 9.2% for 2025. So is this ambition now a bit conservative? Or do you still see this range as the, you can say, sustainable level in the longer term?

Yes. I think, as we speak, we do because you also know that this market fluctuates and also a matter of market mix, product mix, and so on. We are in -- as usually in huge contract negotiations, and we have had very good positions over the last years. But I just think when -- we think still that we are -- we have a good mix, good positions and so on, but we think it's around that area where we could be also long term.

Okay. And as mentioned that in 2024, BioMar, you had a very strong focus on profitability and maybe less on volume growth. So will you be more aggressive on volume growth now that you have entered into long-term contracts, especially in Norway, and improved profitability within these?

Yes. No, it's a very interesting question. And of course, we elaborated a lot on that because also how low, in brackets, can you go on volume before it really starts to hamper your efficiency and so on. And we intend to grow, but we have not changed at all on our profit growth mindset. But we have capacity to grow a little bit more, and we will try to pursue that within the frames of how we think commercial excellence.

Okay. So just a quick follow-up on this because as you mentioned, the guidance, you're implying revenue in line with 2024. So if you expect volume growth, does this imply that you expect raw material prices to decrease slightly in 2025? Or how should we view this?

Yes. We see that the raw material basket might decline, and you also see -- but if you look at our guidance, in the upper end of the guidance, it's a bit better than 2024, but a lot of things, of course, needs to succeed. But we are cautiously optimistic on the way commercial excellence, market positions and so on are run within BioMar.

Makes sense. And then just one last question on BioMar, and then I will jump back in the line. So I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Mowi's announcement a few days ago regarding the initiation of a strategic review of their integrated feed division because from a geographical perspective, it seems that there could be potential synergies for BioMar based on the location of Mowi's factory in Norway and the location of your 2 factories. And adding Mowi's capacity in Norway could significantly strengthen your position in the Norwegian market. But I assume Mowi would require a long-term contract to secure feed for their farming operations, which might, in my view, be -- make this less attractive, of course, depending on the contract terms. So could you provide some insights into your view and this -- on this and potentially the implication for the market if this strategic review results in a sale?

Yes. I think, first of all, interesting that Mowi is out there with this announcement, also maybe showing that even it might seem quite commoditized, feed is a complicated business. It requires a lot to be innovative continuously within feed and so on. So I think interesting move they are doing. We haven't looked too much into it because the announcement first came out the other day. But of course, we know very well the Mowi operation and their positions and so on. Of course, looking into it -- it's something BioMar needs to look into, and then we will take our position on that. But I think as what Mowi is saying is, I think their intention is quite open that they want to get out of feed because they want to invest more upstream in the value chain. And I think they realized that being innovative and efficient in feed production is not just a walk in the park. So we will, of course, evaluate, and then let's see. Claus Almer?

Yes. Also some questions from my side and more question regarding BioMar. You mentioned in your presentation this focus on more profitable contracts. Has this move come to an end? Or should we also expect further negative volume impact in '25? That'll be the first one.

As I said, it's an interesting discussion, and it has not come to an end because we have also lessons learned that if you really start the volume race, then all by a sudden, things happen on your margins and so on. But of course, also you need to have sufficient volume and so on, and we have that still. But we could maybe also get more capacity, more through our factories. And so, of course, we are not denying volume, if it comes within what we call our commercial excellence mindset. So then we would look for more volume also. But we are not going into a market share race as we tried some years ago. I think that's a clear answer to that, but we could take more volume, yes.

I was actually thinking the other way around, Jens. So you've been through some years where you have been saying no to low/no-margin orders. And I guess that's a constant process. But did you still, in '24, due to historical reasons, have some low/no-margin contracts in your mix? So i.e., if you continue being very strict on your margin assumptions, you will have isolated negative volume impact from that?

Yes. No, I don't think so, to be honest. No, we don't have that. I think we have a base now. And also, it's difficult to -- because when you get into a contract, you get a certain percentage of the contract. The customers are so big, so you cannot be too small, but maybe there are 3 steps or 3 levels of volume you can take with a customer and so on. So we will not see -- depending, of course, on if we lost a big contract or so on, but we don't expect that. So we won't see any volume decline in 2025. That's not the intention.

Okay. And then I know you won't say a lot about the strategic review process, obviously. But maybe you could put some color on, has there been any discovery, meaning, wow, that is interesting, we can do this, or we can't -- we shouldn't do that.

Not really, to be very open. I don't think we have seen anything that we haven't been around or discussed. Of course, there will always be things that you get a new insight into, but not really something that has changed our mindset and so on. So no, we are just working down the line and preparing ourselves. And of course, decision is coming closer and closer, Claus. But no really surprises. And we're happy for that.

Sure. So then margins, maybe you could give some color to the margin split or the new information about the margins, both from salmon and shrimp.

Yes. We tried to open more up and try to make it more interesting also by our new -- 4 new segments. And you can see we have had a very strong profitability within our Salmon segment in 2024. But also, of course, our Shrimp segment is rather big, growing. I think also you might remember when we introduced the first acquisition of Shrimp, margins were different than they are today. But we have also changed our strategy because to continue to develop the Shrimp segment, you need to push harder for volume and build more capacity and so on. And thereby, we have entered into a lot of very, very big customers, shifted our customer focus from rather small with risk to very big, large global-oriented customers with security and, of course, also being prepared to offset a little on our margins.

Fair enough. Then the final question, and not to disappoint you, Jens, of course, I will ask you about your net working capital. And congratulations with 2024 and BioMar. But there's always a but here. GPV is flattish, and Borg even up in Q4 year-over-year. So what's going on in those 2 divisions?

Yes. Let me start with Borg. And you're right, Claus. Borg, unfortunately, Q4, we produced a lot to stock also because of the -- especially the demand on reman were soft. So we produced a lot of -- to stock, and cost came in. And we think we are not satisfied with the net working capital development within Borg. Management is the same. We have a strong program going on to reduce that over the next half year. However, GPV, also the same, but a lot of pressure also on terms from very large customers because of financing. A lot of things has been going on. So in fact, GPV working with a very, very hard program on also reducing net working capital. And I think also I said at the start when I was a little bit -- I was proud of our net working capital reduction, but I knew also that it's -- we cannot stop that. We need to continue the strong push into 2025, and especially the 2 companies you are naming -- mentioning, they need to improve.

Because in GPV should have a significant tailwind from bringing down the stock, I guess.

Yes. And we will push out on that. I think you will see that also in '25, yes.

Great. Then I know what to ask for the coming quarters, Jens.

Yes, of course. In fact, I intended to say thanks to Claus, we brought our net working capital down to DKK 500 million. And to be honest, pushing is okay because it also gives a good opportunity for us to say, look, what they are asking for. So thank you for it, Claus. André?

Yes. I also have a few. So just coming back to this Mowi announcement, and I just want to be sure, does this announcement affect your IPO considerations in any way?

Not as we are speaking, but we will never promise something we can't keep. So of course, we need to look into what's going on because it's such a big move within the business we are in. And things could happen and so on. But as we speak, we are still full intentions on investigating this and taking a decision in not too long time. So that's where we are. But of course, it's a big thing, an interesting announcement.

Okay. And then just another thing around Mowi because they recently acquired the last ownership in Nova Sea. How does that -- or how will that affect you in -- I think it's mainly 2026. Can you say anything about that?

Yes, you're right. It is in 2026. As, of course, it's one of our good customers, we don't disclose volumes from there, but we have been with Nova Sea for many, many years. But let's see if something happens on the Mowi feed. All by a sudden, they are not producing their own feed, and then maybe even they need a larger supplier for Nova Sea and so on. So a lot of things is in play. But of course, if nothing happened, then we might -- could lose some of the volume with Nova Sea, but then there are other opportunities in the market. But you're right.

But is it a profitable customer?

Yes, it is. We don't have any customers that are not profitable within our business for the time being. It has been part of our commercial excellence, really working on that.

Okay. And then just regarding current trading because we are more than 2 months into the year, so can you comment anything around current trading on both BioMar and GPV?

Yes. I think we maintain the guidance we already came out with in January. And then that's -- of course, things are going as expected, so nothing really new on that, I think. Of course, you are always a little bit nervous on what's happening in the world and so on. But we have seen the first 2 months starting as expected, underlining our guidance.

Okay. And just a follow-up on that, mainly regarding GPV because I understand that it will be H2 loaded. So have the first month been weak in GPV?

I would not say really weak. I think -- no, as expected and not very weak. Of course, not a lot of uptake, but yes, it has been soft but controlled.

Okay. And then just my last question regarding working capital because I understand there is mainly potential in GPV in 2025. But I think you have also been surprised about BioMar in 2024. So is there more that could surprise you to the upside on working capital in 2025 for BioMar specifically?

They have worked very well with the net working capital, cash flow and so on. So -- but we continue to push, and it's really one of the most important KPIs and focus areas within Schouw also into 2025, also because of, in general, it's very good housekeeping that you do that, but also, of course, it comes with a cost on interest and things like that to have too high net working capital. So we are pushing hard on it, continue to do that.

And then just one last question. I know I said it before, but that's just regarding CapEx for Fibertex Nonwovens. Just to be sure, so why is it so much higher? And is it worth continuing to spend money here?

Now that's a very relevant question. We are spending on -- we have already -- we did already -- in 2021, we acquired a line that we didn't finalize. We had it literally standing in boxes. Now we are finalizing and implementing it at our factory in the Czech Republic. And in fact, it's finished and ready for production in 2025. And in fact, we have a very, very strong pipeline on that. We are sold out on our European businesses and so on. So it's to support capacity there. So in fact, very positive on that, but it's finalizing that huge investment program we started back in 2021. SEB? Yes.

Can you hear me?

Yes.

It's Wei from SEB. Actually, most of my questions have been answered. And maybe just a follow-up on the BioMar margin. Could you please comment on your current production utilization in 2024? Your volume was down in 2024, but please correct me if I was wrong. I can see that what is embedded in your revenue guidance and also the current raw material price trend. I understand you expect quite a positive volume growth in 2025. Do you expect a better utilization of the production capacity to be the main margin driver or just a marginal margin driver in 2025?

Yes. Thank you for the question. As I said, it's rather difficult to really be very precise on capacity utilization across the board because it's very different. If you look at the big salmon market, especially Norway, there is a high-season thing going on, meaning Q2, Q3, very high season; Q1, low season. We don't utilize capacity full out. But in the high season, we expect to utilize our capacity full in Norway and so on. And some of the other factories, we are quite high on capacity. Looking into Ecuador, where we just put in 2 new lines, capacity is, more or less, full and so on. But still, we have a few opportunities around. And of course, utilizing capacity efficient, improving productivity and so on will be a margin driver. But again, also I think the most important margin driver will be our constant focus on innovation, functional feed, using a much broader-based raw material basket that can really move margins a lot. We have capacity to continue to grow, but not a lot of excess capacity, to be open.

Okay. Great. And is it possible to indicate the share of your long-term contracts with your customer?

We don't do that, but we have -- and where you really work with long-term contracts, that's mainly salmon, 2 markets -- 3 markets. It's in the Salmon segment, let's say it like that. There, you work with longer contracts than in the other segments. Then you could also, especially in Ecuador, with some of the large customers, look a little bit into long-term contracts. But it's not a normal long-term contract-based industry.

Yes. And how often do you do the price negotiation with the customer?

That also depends on segment. If you look into the specialty segment, then you can do it. Yes, when things happen in the raw materials or other, you have pass-on mechanisms in your contracts and so on. So it's a very broad picture on when and how. Emil?

Yes. A few extra questions from my side, this time on GPV. So tariffs is, of course, an important topic these days. And if I remember correctly, and please correct me if I'm wrong, the U.S. accounts for just above DKK 0.5 billion of GPV's revenue, with around DKK 100 million of this amount currently coming from the Mexico plant. So I assume the impact from tariffs on GPV's performance will not be material. But could you quantify or provide some sensitivity on the expected impact on margins? And also, are any tariffs included in your current guidance, both for GPV and for the other companies where this might be relevant?

Yes. Thank you for the question. No, it's not. We haven't included anything because we are still -- yes, it's still so uncertain. We have rightly activities into the U.S. delivered from -- supplied from different factories in GPV. But we have a big Mexico -- a rather large Mexico setup, and we have increased capacity and so on because the pipeline of new customers, new products was very strong. Of course, we are also looking into what's going to happen with this. We haven't seen any consequences yet, although some of the customers has been holding back a little bit, but we are investigating and calculating on effects. We think we can supply U.S.-based customers from other production facilities around the globe. We have full capacity to do it. We are looking into what are we going to do in Mexico and what impact will it have. We don't have a clear picture yet, Emil, but it's really a top priority on our agenda now.

Understood. A question also on these one-off costs that you expect for 2025. Are there any specific quarters you expect these to materialize in? Just to have an understanding of the phasing.

Yes, we are not -- we have just announced in Sweden -- some of it is going to Sweden. We have announced. As you know, there's a lot of things going on when you have to do large layoffs and so on. So we announced in Sweden that we are going to do things and so on. And when they are going to materialize, I'm not quite sure. But we still expect it to be in the magnitude of around DKK 40 million. But I have not a very clear picture on quarter-by-quarter.

Okay. And just one last question from my side. Maybe on synergies from the integration of Enics, can you provide just a general update on the progress and where you're currently at in terms of the DKK 100 million that you expected in synergies?

Yes, we are more or less on the target with that. I think it has delivered it. We have been, of course, hit by the soft demand, but we have been doing most of the things on the sourcing, on the factory footprint. I think the last thing we really need to do now is Sweden that came in with the merger. So we really need to work hard on that. Otherwise, we are more or less on target with it. So, yes.

Okay. And is it possible to quantify how much of the total synergies that you have harvested so far?

I would say, a rough -- give and take, around 70% to 80%.

A question from the chat saying, [ can you ] comment on defense exposure?

Yes. A comment from the chat on defense exposure. We do not have that much exposure. Where we have is HydraSpecma. We have a production facility in Örnsköldsvik in the northern part of Sweden, where we are next to BAE. We are supplying into BAE and expect really to grow that. We have also -- within GPV, we are authorized to supply into defense and so on. And let's see -- of course, it's something we are looking into to see if we really can push hard on that because we have a lot of interesting products that could go into defense. We are not that big yet, but we intend to look more into that, and we have opportunities. Okay. I think I'm just hearing that there's no more questions, not from chat or any other ones. So thanks a lot for everyone listening. Thanks for the questions, and have a nice day. Thank you very much.