Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the AkzoNobel Q4 and Full Year Results Call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the floor to Kenny Chae, Head of Investor Relations to begin the call. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and welcome to AkzoNobel's Investor Update for the fourth quarter of 2024. I'm Kenny Chae, Head of Investor Relations for AkzoNobel. Today, our CEO, Greg Poux-Guillaume; and CFO, Maarten de Vries, will take you through our results. We'll refer to the presentation, which you can follow by webcast or download from our website at akzonobel.com. A replay of the webcast will also be made available following the event. There will be a Q&A session after the presentation. For additional information, please contact our Investor Relations team. Before we start, a reminder of our forward-looking statements disclaimer on Slide 2. Please note, this also applies to the conference call and answers to your questions. I will now hand over to Greg, who will start on Slide 3 of the presentation.

Thanks, Kenny. Good morning to everyone on the call. In Q4, we increased adjusted EBITDA by 3% and continue to deliver underlying growth in mixed market conditions. Organic sales increased by 1%, driven by price/mix. Organic volumes were flat in the quarter, with growth in Coatings offset by declines in Deco, mainly in Deco China. OpEx in constant currencies was flat year-on-year, a sequential improvement in operational cost as the benefits of our self-help measures begin to materialize. Q4 adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 321 million, in line with consensus expectations. Looking at the full year, we delivered growth in profit while navigating a complex operating environment of inflation, adverse currencies and unstable markets. Despite these challenges, we grew organically while accelerating our efficiency measures, which are only starting to hit the bottom line. We achieved full year organic sales growth of 2%, supported by a 1% increase in volumes. Our adjusted gross margin expanded by 130 basis points. Full year adjusted EBITDA before hyperinflation accounting reached EUR 1.5 billion, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 14.1%. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased to 3x, higher than our target as we ended the year with lower payables driven by inventory reductions in Q4, but also accelerated restructuring activities. It is 2.6x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. So, therefore, 2.6x on an adjusted basis. More on this later. Let's now turn to Slide 4. Q4 organic volume growth was flat, distorted by Deco China. Excluding Deco China, we grew 2% at the group level in Q4. Looking at our businesses one by one. In Deco Europe, Middle East and Africa, Q4 volumes were slightly down in a seasonally small quarter. For the full year, volumes were flat with the mixed local conditions delaying the market's return to pre-COVID levels. We're expecting 2025 to remain flattish overall. In Deco EMEA, Q1 volumes will be slightly down, but this is driven by our actions in Turkey, where we are changing our commercial terms to rebalance our supply chain, which tended to be very front-loaded. Said in a less cryptic manner, people were using paint as an inflation hedge and impacting our operations in terms of our production. This effect will actually correct during the year. So that means lower volumes in H1 in Turkey, but higher volumes in H2. We're just rebalancing. Turkey is not changing in terms of the prospects of the market. Turning to our emerging deco markets. Latin America continued to deliver mid-single-digit growth driven by Brazil, while Colombia and Argentina showed signs of improvement. In Southeast Asia, Q4 delivered low single-digit growth, driven by a solid rebound in Vietnam. For 2025, we expect mid-single-digit growth for these 2 regions. In China, Q4 demand remained weak with the decline year-on-year in the teens for the reasons you all know, a stalled real estate market and low consumer confidence. We see clear signs that the market has bottomed out. And we expect low single-digit growth in 2025 on New Year comps. Now moving to our coating business units. Our Powder business continued to outperform its markets, achieving low single-digit growth despite weaker demand in automotive. In 2025, we will grow further by leveraging our differentiated technology and services. Marine and Protective continued to be a standout performer, delivering double-digit volume growth, driven by a technical new-builds in Marine. We expect mid-single-digit growth for both businesses in 2025. Automotive and Specialty volumes were slightly lower in Q4 as automotive and vehicle refinishes remained weak. The demand remained weak in both automotive and vehicle refinishes. While aerospace demand is strong with full order books throughout the industry, OEM challenges continue to limit our growth. In 2025, for Automotive and Specialty, we expect flat to slightly positive volumes driven by Asia and aerospace. In Industrial Coatings, packaging volumes faced tougher comps in Q4, as we had stepped in last year for a peer, which had a temporary supply outage. This was contracted volumes to the peer. They had an outage, we stepped in. The volume was always going to go back to them once they fix their problems. But once again, that's part of the customer relationship, and I'm sure that will pay off for us over time. We also saw softer demand across the other segments. We anticipate some softness to continue in Q1, with volumes likely flat to slightly down for the full year. Looking ahead, we're not planning for a significant market rebound in 2025. Our flat to low single-digit growth will be driven by Marine, Powder and Emerging Deco markets. Turning to Slide 5 to discuss our ongoing efficiency measures. I'm pleased to report that our industrial transformation remains on track. Last quarter, we said that we will exceed the initial announced recurring benefit of EUR 250 million. We now expect an additional EUR 50 million, bringing the total to EUR 300 million by 2027. Out of the EUR 300 million, EUR 200 million of that is cost savings and EUR 100 million is efficiency gains. Efficiency gains is things like unlocking additional capacity from existing assets to fuel growth, which is important for businesses like Powder as an illustration. For 2025, we reconfirm our target of delivering EUR 70 million in benefits in the year. The program is progressing well. We're optimizing our network with 3 Deco EMEA sites having closed in 2024, plus 3 other sites in Europe and Asia. There's at least 5 more sites -- 5 more site closures to come in 2025 with the final round of closures to be announced in 2026. And we continue to make strategic investments to enhance and modernize our anchor sites around the world. I'm encouraged by the progress we're making in operational efficiency and the debottlenecking of critical assets. These efforts have been critical in addressing past supply chain constraints that impacted our ability to meet customer demand. We're able to fully restore our ability to deliver with service levels measured as on time in full, OTIF, now in excess of 90%. This was achieved despite driving a cost -- host, I'm sorry, of industrial efficiency measures and headcount reductions across our manufacturing assets. Moving to Slide 6. Incremental to our industrial transformation, we announced SG&A efficiency targets last September, so functional targets. The focus is on removing complexity to become leaner and more agile, eliminating internal roadblocks to growth. Actions are progressing quickly and accelerating. Initially, aimed at reducing functional staffing by 2,000 people, the scope has now been expanded to 2,200. We expect to deliver over EUR 150 million of annualized gross savings with the full run rate achieved by the end of this year. Progress is evident in our group headcount figures with 1,100 reductions already in the second half of 2024, only part of which are functional. The underlying impact is even higher when factoring in 200 in-sourcing hires in finance. Consultations are progressing ahead of schedule, and we will have fully executed these measures within the first half of 2025. As you'll see on the next slide, only EUR 15 million of that EUR 150 million of savings has hit the P&L in 2024. So there's plenty more to come in 2025. Maarten will now cover what these programs mean from a financial perspective in the next slide. Maarten?

Yes. Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everybody, on the call. As we expand our self-help programs, I thought it would be helpful to share an overview of the phasing and impact analysis of our 2 programs. Starting with the industrial transformation program, as Greg mentioned earlier, we've completed the 6 site closures, and the visible benefits are expected to step up materially from 2025 onwards. The program is set to deliver EUR 300 million in total benefits, supported by EUR 200 million in restructuring costs, of which EUR 175 million will be cash. CapEx deployment is aligned with our plans with EUR 50 million per year over 3 years being invested in anchor sites and debottlenecking critical assets. Turning to the SG&A actions. This initiative is well underway and is expected to deliver over EUR 150 million in total gross savings with EUR 100 million already expected in 2025. While EUR 80 million restructuring costs were booked in 2024, the timing of cash out is more weighted towards the first half of 2025. Both programs are off to a strong start with expected gross savings of EUR 170 million in 2025. While we are seeing the initial benefits materialize, a significant amount of work has already been done, and we are confident for sustained improvements in the years ahead. Turning to the next slide. Our organic sales grew by 1% in the quarter, while reported revenue increased by 4%, supported by favorable foreign exchange rates. Our volumes remained flat overall, with growth in Coatings offset by declines in Deco China. On a group level, price/mix contributed 1% to organic sales. Coatings delivered the strongest quarter with double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA. On the other hand, Deco's profit was impacted by lower volumes in Deco China and a soft Q4 in Deco EMEA. Foreign exchange movements had a positive effect on revenue, contributing 3%, mainly driven by the Argentinian pesos. This temporary benefit resulted from prior year comps, which included a year-to-date adjustment subsequent to a sudden devaluation of the peso in Q4 last year, in fact in December last year. If we exclude the impact from the pesos, underlying FX was flat for the quarter. We delivered an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 321 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.3%. Moving now to Slide 9. Our operating working capital as a percentage of revenue came in higher than expected at 15.7%. This was primarily due to lower accounts payables on the back of late inventory reductions in the latter half of Q4. Exiting Q3, our inventory levels were higher than market conditions required. We work these down throughout the quarter, and DIO improved by 6 days sequentially and 2 days compared to the prior year. This temporary impact on accounts payables also impacted Q4 free cash flow, which came in at EUR 284 million. So on Slide 10, the development of our leverage ratio. Net debt to EBITDA was 3x. This was higher than previously expected due to accelerated restructuring costs, which we took in Q4 from our efficiency programs and higher-than-expected working capital. Excluding identified items, net debt to adjusted EBITDA remained stable versus prior year. As highlighted earlier on, restructuring costs will remain elevated through 2025, as we continue to execute our key initiatives. This will result in our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio increasing further in the first half of the year before we are able to work it down to below 2.5x. On a midterm basis, we aim to reduce leverage to around 2x, but remaining committed to retaining a strong investment-grade credit rating. Turning now to Slide 11. Return on investment improved to 13.3% in 2024. We expect further progressive improvements ahead as we enhance our asset utilization through our industrial transformation initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 increased to EUR 1.48 billion, driven by organic volume growth and pricing discipline, which more than offset FX and operational cost inflation headwinds. Based on our 2024 results, we proposed a final dividend of EUR 1.54. And for 2025, we target an adjusted EBITDA of more than EUR 1.55 billion. With that, I hand over back to Greg.

Thanks, Maarten. Looking ahead, we don't expect a significant market rebound in 2025. The self-help measures we are implementing will increasingly contribute to the bottom line, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver sustainable profitable growth. We expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA growth to above EUR 1.55 billion. This will be driven by our ability to grow at flat to low single digits in mixed market conditions and the benefits from our industrial and SG&A savings programs of EUR 170 million, as seen in our summary table on Slide 7. These structural programs will serve us well for the long term, especially when end markets start growing again. Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be slightly lower than the prior year on lower volumes due to the China Deco market underperformance and the realignment that we are undertaking in Turkey. China Deco has bottomed out and will have lower comps in the second half of the year. And as for Turkey, we tweaked our commercial conditions, I explained, to rebalance production within the year. So it's merely a volume shift from H1 to H2. Moving on to the final slide. A reminder of our midterm ambitions. We remain on track to deliver on our midterm ambitions, including adjusted EBITDA margins of over 16% and ROI between 16% and 19%. The acceleration and expansion of our self-help measures will further strengthen our confidence in achieving these goals. With a clear strategy, disciplined execution and a focus on long-term value creation, we're well positioned to navigate market challenges and seize further growth opportunities ahead. I'll now hand back to Kenny to close and on upcoming events and start the Q&A. Kenny?

Thank you, Greg. Before we start the Q&A session, I would like to draw your attention to the upcoming events shown on Slide 14. On February 26, we will publish our annual report, and we will announce our first quarter results on April 23. Our AGM will be held on April 25. The ex-dividend date of our 2024 final dividend is on April 29, and the record date is April 30, followed by the payment on May 7. This concludes the formal presentation, and we would be happy to address your questions. [Operator Instructions] Operator, please start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Thomas Wrigglesworth of Morgan Stanley.

First question, if I may. Just in terms of the full year outlook, you've clearly given us the volume assumptions, but could you just help us understand how you're thinking about pricing? Have you started any? Are you pushing for higher pricing starting this year? Is that upside that maybe isn't captured? And can you also talk about cost inflation, both raws and also the labor cost inflation? That's the first question. Second question, just on the Akzo -- sorry, the Southeast Asian strategic review, could you just clarify any updates there? I saw that there was some discussion about Akzo parent company taking out the Industrial Coatings business, so I'm keen to better understand that.

Yes. So first on the full-year outlook 2025 and your questions, let's start with OpEx. We've clearly indicated that the gross savings we have underpinned and we will realize this EUR 170 million. Our assumption on wage inflation and other inflation is roughly EUR 100 million. So that means that our guidance is based on the fact that we will have a net saving or a net benefit of EUR 70 million. That is one. And from a pricing perspective and raw material and other freight inflation, first of all, raw material and other freight inflation, we expect a low single-digit inflation. So we do expect raw material to show further inflation during the year. And from a pricing perspective, we expect to offset that. So we are deploying price increases as we speak during Q1 and partly also during Q2. Progressively that will be done selectively, but with the aim to make sure that with the pricing we deploy to offset raw material inflation as well as freight inflation.

Thanks, Maarten. Now I'll take your South Asia question. As we announced, we are doing a strategic review on our business in South Asia. South Asia is mainly India. It's India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, but the main business is in India. It's -- there's a particular focus on the Deco positions because once again, Deco is about local scale. It's about local dominance. And we have a very strong business in India, which is a strong premium business, which is actually the premium business in that market, but we also have a low market share, a profitable position, but low market share. So we're looking at opportunities to make that business stronger and that could go from a joint venture merger all the way to disposal. And I think there's been plenty of coverage in the Indian press. So you can see that there are people bidding on the business. The carve-out that you're talking about is -- the players that we're talking to in India are -- they're liquid coatings players. And actually, many of them are Deco players. And the Powder business is one of the crown jewels of AkzoNobel, but it's also a business that's very different from what they know. So in order to facilitate these discussions, we are taking out the Powder business from the AkzoNobel India Limited publicly traded entity, of which we own 75%. So that's the transaction you're talking about. What essentially it means is that it's an enabler for something ambitious on the liquid side, and the liquid side is essentially our Deco business and some of our liquid coating businesses that have decorative like qualities. If you take, for example, something like vehicle refinish in India, vehicle refinish is distributed through retail stores, just like decorative paints. So, therefore, it's a very similar business. Hence, the fact that this is something that people we're talking to are comfortable with. So a long answer to your question, but hopefully, that kind of gives you clarity.

Just one quick follow-up. Is there a cash out associated with buying that, taking out the Powders business from Akzo India?

It's a very good question. So how the transaction will look like, is it that there will be an initial cash out for taking Powder out? And then, of course, it will be a cash in from the overall transaction. But what we do is -- I mean this is kind of in sequential steps we are taking as part of the overall transaction.

Our next question comes from Christian Faitz at Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes. 2 questions, please. First of all, you talked about weak demand in Q4 in automotive within the Powder Coatings business. Is that due to much lower electric vehicle growth? And the second question, also kind of an M&A question, can I ask for an update on your thoughts around the coatings assets that BASF is putting on the block?

Sure. Christian, Q4 Auto and Powder, yes, weakness. It's not linked to electric vehicle weakness. It's linked to the wheel business. We have very high market share in wheel coatings, essentially the coating of rims. And as that, the auto industry overall is under a little bit of pressure. That has led to our wheel customers lowering production. And therefore, that impacted our Powder business. So it's not EV-related. It's more general car-related, mostly linked to wheels. As for M&A...

Can I just...

Yes, please.

Sorry, can I just ask on that? So you continue to grow within the electric vehicles business OEM -- on the OEM side, right?

Yes, we do. Yes, we do. M&A, BASF, it's rumors and hearsay at this point. BASF hasn't put anything officially on the block. Clearly, they've made no qualms about the fact that they were carving out the business and thinking about the long term. I think this is a story for later in the year, probably for the second half of the year. There's a lot of things to like about that business, but it's just one of the topics that AkzoNobel will look at in general. So nothing new to add from this perspective. What I will say is that, clearly, we're focused on our cash flow generation, our deleveraging, and we're making sure that we're not getting overly distracted about with what's going on in the markets. So if anything changes, we'll update you. But for now, it's -- there's nothing on the immediate horizon.

Our next question is from Matthew Yates, Bank of America.

I'd like to actually just pick up on that last point you made about being focused on cash generation and deleveraging because -- yet again in Q4, the cash generation wasn't great. When I look at Slide 10 on your guidance for the leverage evolution, basically, it's saying that the business won't generate any meaningful cash in 2025 beyond the dividend. I appreciate it's going to be another elevated year of restructuring cash. But can you just help me understand some of the other moving parts? Given your volume outlook, I struggle to see any material swing on working capital. And I think you've also said some of your metrics are still suboptimal there. So can you just help me bridge a little bit why we don't see better or faster progress on the deleveraging? And then somewhat of a related question. Can you remind me why in 2026, that is the biggest year for cash restructuring associated with the transformation program? I know it was always the case that the benefits of that program was somewhat back-end loaded. But why is the cash outflow also somewhat back-end loaded?

Yes. So on your first question on the deleveraging, a few key assumptions to note. The most important assumption is that we do expect in 2025 a major cash out from our restructuring programs, the industrial program as well as the SG&A program, which is in total roughly EUR 220 million. So that is a key assumption behind the cash flow. And then from a working capital perspective, we ended at 15.7%. We've indicated that we will further work on working capital down to around 14.5%. And maybe to the working capital of the -- where we landed at the end of the year as well as the cash flow in Q4, what we saw is, as you know, we ended with a high, and in fact, higher inventory level at the end of Q3. We have taken measures to work that down. But finally, the reduction, the sequential reduction in inventories came late in the quarter. We sequentially reduced inventories with 6 days, but the fact that it came late in the quarter impacted our payable position, which is very much a timing issue in terms of cash flow.

Yes. So I'll take the restructuring question. So to Maarten's point, our late inventory reduction made the payables look ugly, and therefore, the working capital look ugly at the end of the year. It doesn't alter in any way. There's no change to the cash generating ability of the Akzo businesses. It just created a shift, which I would have liked to avoid, but at the end of the day, it was more focused on reducing inventories and making sure that we started 2025 in a -- at a healthy level. Your question on restructuring, if you look at the table on Page 7, what you see is that the SG&A program, it's all happening this year. There's nothing in terms of 2025. Cutting functions is much faster than closing factories. So that is maybe an indication of our ability to operate at speed. If you look at the industrial side, you see that there's EUR 100 million of restructuring costs in 2025, but only EUR 50 million of cash out. So what that tells you -- and then there's another EUR 70 million of restructuring costs in 2026. So what that tells you is that in '26, we've got the cash impact of the closures we'll announce in '26 plus part of the cash impact of the closures that we'll announce in '25. Because '25 is not going to be like one announcement at the beginning of the year, there's going to be closures spread out throughout the year based on the timing at which we're ready to press on the button, but also the cyclicality of some of the businesses, you don't close right at the beginning of the high season. So hence, the distribution. But I think what it tells you is that we're going fast on the functions that the industrial stuff is more spread out. The quantum has increased. And it tells you that there's still more to come in 2026 because the cash out of '26 is only partially justified by the carryover from '25. Hopefully, that answers your question.

I guess, Maarten, sorry, just to come back. So you're saying the leverage only comes down by 0.1 turns next year despite the fact you still think you can improve some of your working capital metrics. I'm just structure -- is the emphasis there on the below sign? Or is there something else I'm missing?

No. I mean what we are basically saying is from a reported as well as adjusted level, it's 0.1x down, but we are clear that this is kind of the highest level. So we are aiming to be below the 2.9x at reported level and below the 2.5x at adjusted level. Just to be very clear.

I think there's an element of -- also from our perspective because if you look at '24, we got caught a little bit at the end of the year with a leverage ratio. I mean, the payables, I have explained. But the restructuring, it's good news that looks like bad news. We're doing the restructuring faster. It's impacting the EBITDA, and therefore, it makes our ratio less favorable. We could have a similar effect in 2025. If we go faster on the industrial closures, then the cash flow moves up, and maybe some of that moves into 2025 from 2026 to your earlier question. So I think the focus is on the lower than.

The next question comes from Chetan Udeshi at JPMorgan.

I was just curious, historically, especially last year, you guided to a range for full year '24. And this time, you are guiding to more like more than EUR 1.55 billion. I guess it's much more semantics than anything else. But just curious, is there any anything we should read into it? Because like Maarten said, EUR 70 million net cost savings. If I just add that to the last year's number, that gives me about EUR 1.55 billion, and then, maybe you have hopefully some volume growth and maybe FX. I was just curious why not a range and just the different style of guidance this time? And the second question was beyond the comp impact in Q1, are you seeing any material changes in business environment in any of your regions or segments? We heard you talk about key phasing, which makes -- which is fine. I'm just curious, we've seen some improvement in China maybe in home sales and activity levels. I'm just curious if that's sort of resulting in any improvement in market trends in any of your markets. And last question, just going back, sorry, on free cash flow working capital. I think the reality is in the past, with Akzo, one thing we could always depend upon was good consistent strong free cash flow. I think in the last 3 years, you had phases where it's ended up much worse than better, if anything. So I'm just curious where -- is there some difference that you are managing the working capital maybe differently than in the past because of the supply chain issues that we've consistently had? Or is it just maybe a delay in probably bringing the working down as fast as you would have liked? I'm just curious. Because if I look at working capital -- just inventory levels today as well, the inventory days are 98 days, you used to run the business with 80 days inventory levels prior to COVID. So I'm just curious why we've not seen that go down even more.

Chetan, we'll take your questions. I'll take the first 2. Maarten will take the last one. Maybe -- and I say Maarten will take the last one, but something you said right at the end of your senses makes me react, which is we never operated at 80 days of inventories. The lowest we've operated at was something like 92 days. And this was in 2019 or before. And at a time when we were using higher levels of consignment stocks, over the raw material crisis, when everything was challenging, we struggled to procure, and we struggled to forecast. And we moved away from consignments, and we haven't really gone back. And the reason why we haven't really gone back is that you're in an environment where there's a lot of things happening on the raw mat markets. And consignment stocks are a trade-off between working capital and margin essentially. You're making your DIO look better by having consignment stock, but you're taking away your ability to reshuffle the cards and maybe generate some procurement savings. So the metrics look a little bit different for those reasons, but Maarten will explain in more detail. I'll take your first question, which was the guidance, Maarten and I are not smart enough to send subliminal messages to you guys. We -- what we tried to do for 2025 because it's a year where we're guiding for volumes that are flat to low single digit is that if you look at the EBITDA, it's the bottom -- that bottom of the range, that EUR 155 million is a EUR 70 million step, and Maarten explained that the self-help measures are EUR 170 million that you met with EUR 100 million of cost inflation. So that's a EUR 70 million delta. So essentially, he also said that pricing aims to cover the raw material and logistics increase. So essentially, we're neutralizing effects. We're giving ourselves the benefit from the self-help measures, which is something that we control. And we're essentially flagging that anything above that is going to be volume-driven. And a lot of things can happen this year. So we see that as with a focus on above. We see that as -- this is the number we can get to through self-help with neutral volume, neutral pricing. And then depending on market conditions, we could be able to achieve something higher. Your question on whether anything changed in the market, are we seeing significant shifts? As you rightly pointed out, we're saying Q1 is going to be a little bit lower than -- it's going to be a little bit lower than Q1 last year, but it's really the China comp for Deco and the Turkey rebalancing. So if you exclude that, it's -- you're talking -- essentially, you're talking flat markets versus last year. And essentially, H1 2025, for us is a -- in terms of market momentum looks a lot like H2 2024. The first half of last year was more dynamic. The second half was more tepid. We see a first half, which is -- this year, which is going to be also kind of muted. And the areas where there's the beginning of an improvement, China Deco, yes, bottom has been hit. There's a -- I think there's upside opportunities, and we see volume going up throughout the year, but we don't -- we're conservative in terms of at which rate that's going to happen because China has struggled to take off from a domestic consumption perspective. And then everything else is kind of a mixed bag. There wasn't anything that's slowing down significantly. There isn't anything that's picking up significantly, at least not in the first half of the year. Maarten?

Yes. And then to further build on Greg's messages, so inventory at the end of Q4 sits at just above the 100 days of DIO. As I mentioned earlier, a sequential improvement of 6 days versus Q3, but also an improvement versus last year. And the aim is to further bring the inventories down at least into the high 90s. From a free cash flow perspective, no underlying -- there is no change in the ability to drive free cash flow from the business because ultimately, the business has a relatively low CapEx level, so -- and high cash conversion level. And I just want to note that if you look, for instance, in 2023, we had a strong free cash flow. So I do see what happened, especially with the cash flow as Q4 just as a timing issue with our payables. But underlying, there was still a strong cash generation for the business. And what I've pointed out is also to take into account what we have laid out the cash outflow, which we will see from restructuring costs in 2025.

The next question is from Aron Ceccarelli at Berenberg.

I have 3. My first one is on your wage inflation figure of EUR 100 million you mentioned before. Maybe can you elaborate a little bit on what's your degree of confidence on this figure? Or in other words, what is preventing a similar situation like last year where you basically had to revise this figure up? My second question is on the Indian assets. And I see there's a lot of interest in the inbound interest and on the assets. What is kind of -- what is preventing this asset to go maybe sooner rather than later? And if we assume that tomorrow you strike a deal, how would you rank your priorities in terms of capital deployment? My final one is on China. We've been hearing about China Deco bottoming for quite some time, but we haven't really seen it. Maybe could you be a little bit more specific on what channel is improving its DIY versus pro?

Maybe I'll take them backwards. China Deco, we see -- we have quite an extensive commercialization network with stores that we own and stores that -- and many more stores that are third-party stores. What we see in our control stores, the ones that we have a lot of data on because we run them, we see that the numbers are trending up. And we see that the inventory levels in the channels have normalized. So positive signs from that perspective that the market is getting healthier. And the market leader has been selectively increasing prices. So I think there's a number of signs that point to rebound potential. Certainly, volumes are no longer dropping, but -- and pricing is no longer dropping. Yes, I'm not betting on the timing of an exact rebound because it's China, there's a party conference in March. There's high expectations that there will be measures to drive domestic consumptions at that party conference. But I'm not in the business of predicting politics. So we'll cautiously wait. But we think we're in decent shape for a rebound in China starting in Q2. The India business, all you have to do is read the Indian press and see that there's a flurry of activity and interest for our business. What's preventing a decision sooner rather than later? It just has to be the right decision for Akzo and for the business. And there's different possibilities to different outcomes for this business. Once again, we could combine it with somebody and remain as a shareholder, as an owner of that business to -- at some level. We could also sell it outright. But whichever way we go, we have to -- we have -- we want to extract the Powder business for the reasons I've explained earlier. It's a different animal that the bidders don't really understand. And also, it's a business that's really important to us on which we have differentiated technology and which we don't want to put in the public domain. So that -- the complication of India is just that it's a public traded entity and that we have to extract the business out of that public trading entity. But we're moving at speed. We're not updating because we don't comment on ongoing discussions. But we have no interest in dragging out this review. We think that getting to a decisive decision will be a positive sign, and we're working towards that. And then your comment on wage inflation, the EUR 100 million, the EUR 100 million is not all wage. It's about probably -- I don't want to say -- give an exact ratio because then you're going to start calculating our salary increases backwards. But it's -- a lot of it is wage, but it's not all wage. Why do we have confidence that it's not going to be like last year, where last year, the inflation for us was more like EUR 200 million, and I think more than EUR 150 million of that was wage. Well, it's because it's a very different world. Last year, it was already a world of lower inflation, but the collective labor agreement negotiations were reflecting the pain to employees of the year before, which is that they were essentially fighting for a catch-up. So we ended up, like a lot of companies, having a significant wage increase impact last year despite the fact that the inflation had already fairly normalized across the world. This year, we're a year further, inflation is even lower and more under control. And as we see data points around us of companies that are ahead of us in terms of the CLA negotiations, you see clearly that the market is normalizing. And we'll make sure that that's the case for AkzoNobel, too. It could lead to social tensions in some areas because there are countries and areas where people are more pragmatic than others. But this is a year where we have to be willing to have that fight, and we will. I think that answers your questions, Aron. Anything else?

Yes. No, just maybe on the priority of your proceeds from the Indian business actually. During that PPG, they are more -- potentially more active on the M&A side as well.

It sounded like I was reluctant to utter the words share buybacks and greatly disappointing this audience. Once again, we're not at all focused on incremental M&A, incremental M&A or bolt-on M&A, these smaller transactions that we've done in the past. This would not be a good sign to the market at a time when we're trading at a multiple which we find low for what AkzoNobel is and buying something at a higher multiple when our own shares are where they are, doesn't make a whole lot of economic sense. We'll -- to the question that was asked earlier by, I think, Christian, we still look at these large kind of combinations that you see when you have -- somebody talked earlier in one of the questions about consolidation in the industry. There's all sorts of things that can happen. But Akzo is not in the business in 2025 of bolt-on M&A. We're in the business of generating cash, demonstrating our ability to delever and coming to decisive decision on the Indian assets that we have. And once that's done, then I think you'll see us go back to a more traditional capital allocation. Does that answer your question?

Yes, it answers it.

Our next question is from Geoff Haire at UBS.

I just had 2 quick questions. One was, Maarten could you just help us understand what the hyperinflation impacts will be as we go through into 2025? Or was the Q4 impact a one-off? And then secondly, just on China, could you comment on market share? Because I've seen a number of the domestic players have seen fairly big increases in volumes in their Deco business. So I just wanted to understand what your -- have you seen lost market share in China?

I'll address China. Maarten will address hyperinflation. Actually, Maarten can address both. He's our China expert. Maarten, go ahead.

No, but let me address the hyperinflation question, and then, Greg can move to China. On hyperinflation, what we see is in Q4, the impact has been EUR 3 million, so significantly lower compared to the previous quarters. For the full year in '24, it was EUR 28 million. So in fact, what we see, we see the impact of hyperinflation tapering off, and that is a good sign. What I was mentioning earlier was more from an FX perspective on the revenue and that was the whole devaluation, which we saw in December 2023 in Argentina. The underlying FX on our revenue perspective was flat. And that is, I think, more important to take that into account. So I just wanted to be explicit to that.

Maybe I'll start asking my own questions to Maarten. But hyperinflation in 2025, what would you say to help these guys in terms of do we think it's a recurring kind of ongoing issue? Do you think that it's changed because our main countries for hyperinflation are Turkey and Argentina? What's your view on that, Maarten?

The situation is changing, and the impact is basically tapering off. So where we've seen over the last, especially 2 years, massive impacts of hyperinflation, that should not be any more of a case in 2025.

Thank you. I'll take the China question. Hopefully, you'll give me credit for the quality of the questions I'm asking Maarten. The China question, the other players, if you look at Nippon or [ Shanghai Shu ], we're playing a different game in a way. They have an issue that we don't have, which is that they had really significant volumes in projects. Projects is essentially selling cheap paints to real estate developers. And those volumes dropped significantly. And both companies reacted by stepping up their efforts and being very aggressive in the mass markets in Deco, which are similar lower-end products. We're not a big player in the mass market. We're more of a premium player in China. What that led to is essentially somewhat of a price war in the mass markets led by Nippon and [ Shanghai Shu ]. That led to a further market consolidation in China. Essentially, they're squeezing out some of the smaller Chinese players and consolidating those volumes. On our side of things, it's more about protecting and stabilizing our premium business. And, therefore, we were more defensive from that perspective. I mean it doesn't sound great when I voiced it being defensive, but it was about making sure that we don't weaken a franchise, which is a quality franchise over time. And on their side, it was volume over price, particularly in the mass market. So where that converges is essentially a market shape up, which will lead to the Deco market in China emerging from this crisis as a more consolidated market with less players, which I think is healthy for all of us over time. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Our next question is from Jaideep Pandya from On Field Investment Research.

I will stay on China. I guess you've lost quite a bit of volume because of the reasons already discussed. I just want to understand what have you reacted with regards to costs to reduce your cost there. And also sort of from a strategic point of view, is China something you want to be committed to longer term because, I guess, fundamentals of that market have changed given the real estate market? The second question is on Marine and Protective. On the flip side, you've seen very good growth in Marine for the last several quarters now. Just want to go back to that point, Greg, you made when you started as a CEO of recovering the margin profile of Marine. And I think there was a EUR 100 million catch-up EBIT that we discussed at that time. Just want to understand -- where are we with regards to that?

Thank you. The volume versus cost in China and Deco, China is a highly adaptative business for us, if I can phrase it that way. We're able to flex our cost really well. Part of that is that the ability of our team to react is well demonstrated. Part of that is that it's a really short supply chain because we procure locally and there's a lot of flexibility in terms of procuring locally. And part of that is that it's a flexible manufacturing setup because we have a combination of own manufacturing and third-party tolling. So we're pretty good at flexing our cost in China, which means that despite the fact, I think we mentioned earlier, that the volumes decline year-on-year in '24 versus '23 were in the mid-teens, we're able to flex our cost in order to minimize the damage during that down phase. And we're emerging from this down cycle in a market that has stabilized, that has rationalized in many ways because we see signs of prices going up again, driven by a few signs by Nippon. We see inventory levels at a healthier level. And we see our cost base at a lower level, both in terms of structure costs, but also in terms of product cost because we took a lot of product cost out of our products as we fought to stay competitive. So I think that, that sets us up for a rebound, both in terms of top line and bottom line. And to your question of the future of China, it's -- I'm really interested to see how our business will perform within Chinese market that will have rationalized. Once again, there's more concentration. It's a healthier market. And I think all the players will be focused on recovering the profitability that they lost, and I think that will serve us well. So we'll see how that evolves in the next couple of years. But we're -- Maarten and I are optimistic as to how the Chinese market in Deco will rebound. Your Marine, Protective question, I said EUR 100 million when I came in, it's -- we've been improving the bottom line significantly in that Marine, Protective business. It used to be a mid-teens profitability business from an operating profit perspective. We bottomed out in 2022, pretty much breakeven. In '23, we were low single-digit profitability. In '24, we were high single-digit profitability, where we aim to floor it with the teens in 2025. And the adventure continues beyond that as we recover our rightful position, both in terms of market position, but in terms of performance. Simon, who runs that business, I joke with him that every semester, I say that he's got increased by EUR 100 million despite the fact that he's already increasing. But that there's more to come from the Marine, Protective business. It's you've seen the growth, but you haven't really seen the operational leverage yet, and that remains to come. So we like that business, and it will continue to drive our performance in the next few years. Did I answer your questions?

Yes, you do. Yes. Just on China, just a couple of short follow-ups. Is this business still sort of in the profit zone? Or are you actually in a loss zone right now? And then just curious about, when you look at your Southeast Asia business, which is very profitable, you want to exit that potentially, if the market is rationalizing, and I'm sure people like Nippon have always looked at Akzo's franchise with a great deal of respect, what is holding you in this market? Like why invest in China, if you're not going to compete with -- on the volume end for that matter? Why don't you put China as well on the list? Is it because the profitability is not there right now, you want to fix it first, and then, potentially it comes on the list or if China will always remain strategic for Akzo?

Now let me -- I mean, your question is on the profitability in China. Let me be very clear that China is a profitable business for us. Yes, the profitability has been under pressure given what happened, and Greg laid it all out in the market. And the market is at the moment in a different state from where it was before. But again, it's a profitable business. And overall, if you look at China broader, we have a very strong position in China, where 15% of our revenue comes out of China. We have a strong -- very strong coatings franchise, supplemented with our Deco business. So...

In fact, I can give a little bit of context, too. We keep saying that China is about 15% of our sales. And what's interesting is that 2 years ago, it was evenly split between Deco and Coatings. But we're all focusing on the fact that the Deco market has been really tough and declining by mid-teens. But our Coating businesses in China have -- they were up last year by -- from a volume perspective, it was close to 10%. So actually, the ratio has shifted. And China for us today is about 2/3 Coatings, 1/3 Deco if you take the revenue base. So first, the point I'm making is that China is -- has been good to us in Coatings and China has been challenging in Deco. But even in Deco, we're profitable. Your question about where we play over time, in retail, in China, we're the #2 player. In -- if we don't fight as hard as [ Shanghai Shu ] who is the #3 in the mass market over time. From a volume perspective, clearly, they'll overtake us. The debate over time is how we can function -- how well we can function as a more premium player in the Chinese market with a very recognized brand and really strong assets. And historically, we've been able to do that really well. We'll see how the market behaves when the dust settles in a more consolidated market with a healthier cost structure and a healthier level of inventory for all. But the reasoning -- I think the point that you're trying to make, or at least that I understand in your question is, does the reasoning that we're applying in India, which is that in Deco, whenever we are not a market leader and there's an opportunity for a combination that would create value, we'd be open to discussions. I think we're always open to these types of discussions where we're not a market leader. But for China, it's very premature because our business, once again, in retail before this challenging cycle, was the #2 player and has good cards to play. And we are curious to see how the Chinese deco market will function, at which level of profitability when the dust settles. And the dust looks like it's just about settled and the rebound is starting. So let's see how that goes.

The next question is from Peter Clark at Bernstein Societe Generale Group.

I had 2 on Deco, again, I'm afraid. EMEA Deco, was really a mix drag in Europe? Because I see Western Central was the weaker part. I know overall, you had a mix that was up probably. And then just a bigger question, and it's for Greg, I think. When you stand back, you look at Deco, Europe's half the business structurally is challenged on volumes and great businesses in there. Latin America, you're not prepared to put new resources in some okay businesses there. Asia, obviously half used to be China, it's smaller now, I guess. There's some fantastic businesses there like Vietnam we should sound out again. But when you stand back and look at all this, it does appear to be something that's going to be driven much harder for cash really. And I think you made clear that resource going forward is going to be more focused on Performance Coatings. So it's how you look at that Deco as a company in itself sort of thing, just standing back in the view of that. Because I know there are some great businesses in there, but as a whole, there's some big question marks as well.

Thanks, Peter. I mean it's always fascinating because everybody has a natural attraction towards the Deco businesses because I guess we all understand them, we all shop. So the company, which is 40% Deco, where we're saying that we'll invest more in Coatings in the future. And in the quarter where we outperformed in Coatings, we still get 80% Deco questions, but -- I understand it. I'll answer your questions. The -- you're right to say that we're not deploying further capital in Deco in Latin America, but it's because we bought Orbis 3 years ago and that we're still extracting value from the Orbis acquisition. And we have leadership positions in 3 major countries: Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. So it's a good business and -- but it's also already a significant part of our capital base and of our business -- our Deco business overall. And we think it's healthy to let the team drive it to optimal performance before we think of anything else. If I take the Asian businesses, as you said, there are businesses in which we're a strong leader, like Vietnam, there's businesses in which we are the clear premium leader, but with a lower market share like China and India. It's more of a multiparameter approach. We continue to invest to support these businesses. But at the same time, Deco is a local dominance play. It's not a global business. It's a multi-local business. Your success in India has just about zero bearing on your ability to compete in Vietnam. So we look very much at the Deco businesses in terms of what is our local strength and how can we make ourselves stronger, and if we don't believe we can, is there a better owner for some of these businesses? And I think that's the kind of strategic review you have to have on the Deco businesses because once again, the global view overestimates how connected these businesses are from one geography to the next. And then Deco Europe, it's -- we're the market leader. We have the best platform with anybody else. We have an integrated production and supply chain and that allows us to operate very successfully, even in countries where we have lower market share because the product comes from a very sizable industrial platform, which has operational scale. So we really play different games in Deco in different geographies, and we have to reflect that also in our capital allocation. There was another question. Did I forget a question?

Yes, there was a question...

Europe. Europe, I'm sorry. Yes, let me answer the question. I remember it. It was -- what happened in Europe in Q4, and you said, was there a mix issue? Yes, there's a mix issue. There's 2 things. There's a mix issue between retail and professional, the professional market, which is more construction related, although there's not a whole lot that's construction-related, but -- at Akzo, but in Deco in Europe. But the professional market, which is more profitable, was lower than retail. So there's a little bit of a mix effect, a bit of a geographical effect, too. But -- and also for those of you based in the U.K., Q4 was when Homebase in the U.K. went into receivership. And that disrupted things a little bit for us. They're a significant customer of ours. And we had to make sure that our interests were protected, they are, because we had a strong legal framework that essentially means that we were -- we retained ownership of the stock that they had. So it was really just a question of making sure that we were in a position to operate with the people that bought some of the stores and with the receiver who's running the other stores and to make sure that our exposure was minimized, which it has been. So that's the Q4 story in Deco EMEA. There's no bearing on anything going forward, but I do agree that Q4 Deco EMEA is weak from a bottom line perspective.

But maybe to add there, Greg, that we only need to take into -- that Q4 for Deco EMEA is the smallest quarter. So I think we should be careful to read too much.

Yes, don't extrapolate going forward. Yes. Peter, you have something else to say?

Sure. Sure. There's, yes, the seasonal effect. Just on the first point, I'm not arguing with anything you're saying about the Deco business as a whole. But obviously, to rebuild your re-rating or get your rating back, I can imagine you're looking at this in terms of driving much stronger consistent cash flow out of it because it sounds at the moment, obviously, it's not delivering enough for any sort of re-rating to start, I think. That's just my -- the perception. It has to be run much harder. Is that essentially what you're trying to do, I presume, through the industrial transformation and the cost cutting?

I mean, you're talking about running these businesses for cash, and you're saying, are they disappointing in cash generation? Once again, they delivered strong cash flow in 2023 and 2024. Our numbers look weak and are weak because of the Q4 payable shift. Once again, we ended up low on payables. We -- but it -- there's nothing that's changed in the ability of these businesses to generate cash. Maarten, do you want to add anything?

No, plus, of course, what you said, Peter, that the industrial transformation is really driving further optimization and asset utilization, specifically with the -- all the actions we're taking in Deco EMEA, for sure.

So as a summary, yes, we'll invest -- we'll deploy more capital in Coatings and in Deco in the future. That in Deco, we're focused on running our Latin American assets to the full potential of that business. We're focused on benefiting from our operational scale in Deco Europe to continue to grow in that market despite the fact that there is structurally no growth in the Deco market in Europe. And in Asia, we're focused on figuring out where we're a long-term winner and where we're better off either with somebody else or by selling our business to somebody who's a better owner. So with that -- I can't simplify it much more than that.

Our next question is from Stefano Toffano at ABN AMRO and ODDO BHF.

3 left for me. So one quick question on Powder Coatings, which seems to -- I mean, it has done well, but less than expected. Maybe a few details on why that is. And now I have to look at the business into the next quarter. Then maybe in general, on this volume development slide that you have in January, Slide 4 or Slide 5. So if I'm not mistaken, looking back over the past quarters, you have a tendency to guide volumes a little bit higher than what they were actually realized. And I'm a little bit wondering where that is coming from. Maybe I overestimated the visibility that you have in the quarter. But then again, you give this guidance sort of 1 month into the quarter. So I'm just wondering what's going on there. And the last question is a simple one on the FTE reduction, 2,200 now, up from 2,000. Just may be a big picture question. Where can this number go? Because it continues to grow over the quarters. And obviously, every time that you look back at the business, you figure out -- you continue to figure out where to cut costs. But -- I don't know if it's possible to say, we have 34,600 people, and we could run -- be running the business with, I don't know, 30,000 maybe in a few years.

Your Powder question, the business did really well in 2024 from a growth perspective. It's a business that was operating in the market where the market was flat at best and down in quite a few areas. And actually, it managed to deliver a good level of growth in 2024. So we're happy with our competitiveness in Powder. We're twice the size of anybody else worldwide. In Europe, we're even stronger. Our focus is on making sure that business is also the clear market leader in the U.S., where we're actually closer in terms of positioning to -- at least in terms of size to a few competitors. So it's really about leveraging the products that we have, which are better products than what the market can offer and the services that we have, which are also recognized as second to none by our customers. So if anything, the -- if I had to be disappointed in anything related to Powder in 2024, it would be that it's a hard market in which to drive pricing currently because there's quite a few players that are -- that realize that the Powder market is an attractive market over the long term and that has been pushing aggressively for volume in order to build their position. So despite our leadership, we haven't always been able to drive pricing. We've increased pricing and seen competitors not following in some geographies. So that's -- if there's anything that I'd like to have seen differently in 2024 in Powder that -- it's that. But, otherwise, our momentum is good. Our technology once again continues to increase its gap to competitors. So I feel good about the Powder business. Your question on our -- do we tend to guide too optimistically? I mean, I've been here 2 years. I don't know that I have a long-term view on that. It's -- I'll do statistics based on 2 data points, which is not ideal. And then before that, you had COVID and the market was all over the place. But in 2024, we were -- when I look at how we guided at the beginning of the year and how we ended at the end of the year, our guidance was fairly accurate in terms of market development for the first half of the year. And then we ended up overshooting in terms of guidance for the second half because there's a number of areas that slowed down, like automotive, vehicle refinish because of insurance premiums. There's a number of things that caught up with the market that kind of slowed things down. So you're right that if you look at it in hindsight, it feels like we've overpromised maybe to some extent. But we're saying low -- flat to low single digit in 2025. And if you read [indiscernible], maybe you can also see that as our desire to make sure that we don't end up having to work down inventories in the second half of the year. We're talking ourselves down also to make sure that we don't build a trend of being too optimistic about the market. Maarten, there was another question.

Yes. There was another question on the FTE reductions. Indeed, we increased our program from the 2,000 to the 2,200. That, by the way, doesn't mean that there are potentially more opportunities because we constantly look at opportunities, how we can drive more savings. But I think more when we go through the year, and we will keep on updating you, but maybe a broader overriding issue is, of course, in an inflationary environment, it's extremely important to continuously to drive productivity. And that's not only the case for 2025, that continues to be also for beyond 2025. So productivity is a key topic for us and to also leverage more and more of automation, whether that is in the industrial side or in the SG&A side.

If I can step in again, I'd add to what Maarten said that we don't want to be -- we don't want to create the impression that restructuring is a recurring item at AkzoNobel. So we're really focused on making sure that we execute these plans and move on. So from a functional perspective, we said 2,000, now we're saying 2,200 positions. Are we saying that 2,200 positions is the full potential? We're not. But what I'm saying is that whatever the number ends up being, you'll know this year because it will be something that we will finalize this year, and then, we'll move on. And then any further functional reduction would be essentially business combinations, which are not in the card. So 22 might not be the -- 2,200 positions might not be the final number, but we -- whatever we do, we'll do this year. And on the industrial side, same thing. We announced a multiyear program, a 3-year program. What we don't want to do is give the impression that there's a creep and that every year there's like a new story. So we'll execute our plan. We have closures in '25. We said we have closures in '26. We actually gave you numbers. And then everything else beyond that, it's not like Akzo will never close a factory ever again, but this will become continuous improvement. And we'll be at identified item levels or they are going to be much lower than what you're seeing in these 3 years.

This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand the floor back to Greg for concluding remarks.

Thank you very much for your time and attention today. We thought that we might be impacted by the fact that we're competing with the SML for people's attention in the Netherlands today, which is a lonely place to be. But '24 -- we closed the books on '24. If you give us the benefit for the hyperinflation, we actually hit the bottom of the range of our EBITDA guidance for the year. We would want it to be higher, but once again, the market softened in the second half of the year. Our cash flow generation was looking pretty good, but the payable thing shifted some of that to 2025. We'll have to do a better job of timing these things so we don't get caught at the end of the year. But the businesses are healthy. They are increasingly cost competitive. The company is also more agile and less heavy in terms of its structures. And our ability to deliver both profit increases and significant free cash flow remains intact, and if anything, reinforced. So we look forward to a good 2025, and we thank you again for your time and attention.

Operator, please close the call.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.