Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
July 30, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning. I'll now turn the call over to Scott Parsons, Alamos' Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations.
Scott Parsons
executiveThank you, operator, and thanks, everybody, for attending Alamos' Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. In addition to myself, we have on the line today John McCluskey, President and Chief Executive Officer; Greg Fisher, Chief Financial Officer; Luc Guimond [indiscernible] Officer; and Scott R.G. Parsons, Senior Vice President of Exploration. We will be referring to a presentation during the conference call that is available through the webcast and on our website. I would also like to remind everyone that our presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. As we will be making forward-looking statements during the call, please refer to the cautionary notes in the presentation, news release and MD&A as well as the risk factors set out in our annual information form. Technical information in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by Chris Boswick, our Senior Vice President of Technical Services and a qualified person. Also, please bear in mind that all of the dollar amounts mentioned in this conference call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Now John will provide you with an overview.
John McCluskey
executiveThank you, Scott. I'll start with Slide 3. During the second quarter, we produced 130,600 ounces of gold, in line with our revised quarterly guidance and 5% higher than the first quarter. The Island Gold District continues to perform well with a strong overall quarter offsetting lower-than-expected production from Young-Davidson and Mulatos. Total cash costs increased 6% from the first quarter while all-in sustaining costs of $1,728 per ounce were 7% lower, driven by the timing of sustaining capital spending. Financially, we continue to generate strong free cash flow of $144 million net of our reinvestment in high-return growth in exploration. Consistent with our balanced approach to capital allocation, we returned $67 million to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends in the second quarter. Through the first half of 2026, our shareholder returns increased to $84 million, already exceeding total returns in 2025. Turning to Slide 4, as previously disclosed, the seismic event that occurred in June at Young-Davidson has impacted our near-term operations and is the main driver of the revision to our full year production and cost guidance. There were no injuries, but there was localized damage to underground infrastructure at Young-Davidson, limiting access to higher-grade stopes in the 9410 level that were scheduled to be mined this year. This is expected to result in lower than planned mining rates and grades for the rest of the year, which Luc will touch on in more detail later in the call. In addition to the challenges we experienced at Young-Davidson, a slower-than-expected leach pad cycle at La Yaqui Grande is delaying the recovery of ounces previously stacked on the leach pad. As a result, we have updated our 2026 full year consolidated production guidance to between 510,000 and 560,000 ounces, a 12% reduction from the previous guidance. Despite this temporary setback, we expect stronger production in the second half of the year driven by higher underground mining rates and grades at Island Gold. Our full year all-in sustaining cost guidance has increased 18%. This is due to lower production, higher costs at Young-Davidson for rehabilitation work and enhanced ground support as well as increased labor inflation and contractor costs in Canada. Greg will provide more detail on these changes in his financial review. All growth projects are advancing well, including the expansion of the Island Gold District, which is the key engine of our strong long-term outlook. We expect significant improvements in both our production and costs in each of the next several years and remain on track to achieve our target of producing 1 million ounces of gold annually by the end of the decade. Turning to Slide 5. We significantly increased our shareholder returns in the second quarter with $50 million in share buybacks and our quarterly dividend of $17 million, which was increased in the first quarter. We also eliminated all the remaining 2026 gold hedges inherited from the Argonaut Gold transaction at a cost of $92 million, all funded by ongoing free cash flow. On the exploration front, we increased another series of exceptional high-grade results across multiple targets within the Island Gold District. These results highlighted the ongoing evolution of the Island Gold District and significant upside potential to what was outlined in the Island Gold District expansion study earlier in the year. Now looking at Slide 6, we have a clear path outlined to grow our annual production and decrease our costs over the remainder of the decade to reach 1 million ounces by 2030. This growth is expected to be internally funded from ongoing free cash flow generation and a strong balance sheet with $1.2 billion in available liquidity. The completion of the Phase 3+ [indiscernible] expansion at Island Gold is within sight. Our Magino mill expansion is well underway, and construction activities continue to ramp up at Lynn Lake and PDA. These are high-return projects, all lower costs and largely derisked, underpinning one of the best growth profiles in the sector. I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Greg Fisher, to review our financial performance. Greg?
Greg Fisher
executiveThank you, John. Moving to Slide 7. We sold 130,800 ounces of gold in the second quarter at an average realized price of $4,504 per ounce for quarterly revenues of $594 million. Total cash costs were $1,303 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs were $1,728 per ounce. Operating cash flow before changes in noncash working capital was $287 million in the second quarter or $0.68 per share. This was down from the previous quarter, reflecting the lower realized gold price and $92 million or $0.22 per share of cash that was used to repurchase and eliminate the remaining 35,000 ounces of legacy Argonaut Gold hedges maturing in 2026. These hedges were scheduled to mature in the second half of this year and by eliminating them, we have increased upside to higher gold prices. To date, we repurchased approximately 280,000 out of the 330,000 ounces hedged by Argonaut prior to maturity, including 50,000 ounces repurchased this year. We will continue to monitor opportunities to repurchase and eliminate the remaining 50,000 ounces of gold forward contracts maturing in the first half of 2027. Our reported net earnings were $270 million in the second quarter or $0.64 per share. This included after-tax gains on commodity derivatives of $27 million, an after-tax inventory net realizable value adjustment of $7 million, unrealized foreign exchange gains recorded in deferred taxes of $4 million and other losses of $1 million. Excluding these items, our adjusted net earnings were $248 million or $0.59 per share. Capital spending in the quarter totaled $181 million and included $36 million of sustaining capital, $130 million of growth capital and $15 million of capitalized exploration. We continue to fund our high-return growth internally while generating strong free cash flow. This included $144 million of free cash flow generated in the second quarter. During the first half of the year, we generated $245 million in free cash flow, of which nearly 90% was used to return capital to shareholders and reduce our gold hedge exposure. We were active on our share buyback in the second quarter, repurchasing 1.4 million shares at a cost of $50 million. Including our quarterly dividend payments, we have now returned $84 million to shareholders and spent $135 million on repurchasing hedges for a combined spending of $219 million this year. As John noted, the $84 million return year-to-date already exceeds our total shareholder returns from last year. We are focused on delivering increasing returns to our shareholders, including evaluating opportunities to continue to be active on our buyback while also balancing our other capital allocation priorities. This includes reinvesting in our high-return growth projects and capitalizing on opportunities to repurchase the remaining gold hedges set to mature in 2027. We ended the quarter with a healthy cash position of $637 million and net cash of $437 million. We expect continued free cash flow generation through the remainder of the year with significant growth starting in 2027 while continuing to self-fund our organic growth plans. Turning to Slide 8. Following the seismic event at Young-Davidson, and due to a longer leach cycle at La Yaqui Grande, we revised our 2026 production guidance to between 510,000 and 560,000 ounces. This is the largest driver of our increase in cost guidance this year, with an expected $190 per ounce impact on all-in sustaining costs, given the similar level of gross costs spread over lower production. On the labor front, we are seeing increased contractor costs in Northern Ontario as well as ongoing labor inflation, which is expected to increase our all-in sustaining costs by approximately $90 per ounce. However, this also reflects a new compensation and retention program that was implemented midyear at all our Canadian operations, which is expected to improve recruitment and retention to further support our ramp-up at Island Gold and overall productivity at our operations. Additionally, required rehabilitation work and enhanced ground support on -- underground at Young-Davidson are expected to increase consolidated all-in sustaining costs by an additional $15 per ounce. These increases are expected to be partially offset by a $20 per ounce benefit due to the weaker Canadian dollar. As a result of these factors, our 2026 total cash cost guidance has increased 14% to a midpoint of $1,225 per ounce and all-in sustaining cost guidance is 18% higher to a midpoint of $1,825 per ounce. This is a temporary increase in costs in large part driven by the lower production and higher costs expected from Young-Davidson in the second half of the year. We expect a significant decrease in our costs in 2027 and over the next several years driven by improvements at Young-Davidson and low-cost growth at the Island Gold District. I will now turn the call over to our COO, Luc Guimond, to provide an overview of our operations. Luc?
Luc Guimond
executiveThank you, Greg. Over to Slide 9. The Island Gold District had a solid quarter with record production of 67,500 ounces, up 10% from the first quarter. The operation remains on track to achieve its original full year production guidance with further growth expected into the second half of the year, reflecting higher underground mining rates and grades. Underground mining rates averaged a record 1,550 tonnes per day, consistent with our ramp-up schedule. Grades mined at 9.15 grams per tonne were in line with guidance and are expected to increase slightly in the third quarter with a further increase in the fourth quarter. Open-pit operations continue to perform well with mining rates averaging 55,000 tonnes per day, including 13,000 tonnes per day of ore during the quarter. Total milling rates from the Island Gold District averaged a new high of over 10,000 tonnes per day in the second quarter. This included nearly 8,900 tonnes per day from the Magino mill and 1,230 tonnes per day from the Island Gold mill. Second quarter total cash costs and mine site all-in sustaining costs were $1,304 and $1,715 per ounce, respectively. Both are expected to decrease in the second half of the year, reflecting the increase in underground mining rates and grades as well as higher mill throughput at Magino. However, given the increased labor and contractor costs reflecting the more competitive labor environment in Northern Ontario as well as energy -- as well as increased energy costs, the 2026 total cash costs and mine site all-in sustaining cost guidance has been revised higher. The Island Gold District generated record mine-site free cash flow of $100 million in the second quarter. That is a significant capital investment related to the Phase 3+ [indiscernible] project, Magino mill expansion and exploration. At current gold prices, the Island Gold District is expected to continue generating strong free cash flow while funding its expansion plans and a significant exploration program. Moving to Slide 10. The ramp-up of underground mining rates at Island Gold is a key driver of our production growth in the second half of 2026 and over the next several years. During the second quarter, mining rates steadily increased every month and averaged a record 1,550 tonnes per day. With an increase in personnel, equipment and mining fronts, our mining rates have continued to increase into the third quarter. We remain on track to reach a year-end rate of 2,000 tonnes per day, with a further increase to 2,400 tonnes per day in the first quarter of 2027 following the commissioning of the shaft. Moving to Slide 11. Magino's milling rates also increased to a new quarterly record of 8,900 tonnes per day, an 18% increase over the first quarter. This included steady improvements on a monthly basis with June averaging a monthly record of 9,800 tonnes per day. The increase is being driven by improving performance and reliability of the overall circuit as well as the addition of supplemental ore feed from the temporary pressure. This improvement has continued into July, with milling rates on pace to average approximately 10,000 tonnes per day. Given the substantial increase in milling rates over the last several months and greater overall consistency of the operation, the mill is on track to average similar milling rates through the remainder of the year. Moving to Slide 12, during the quarter, we spent $66 million in growth capital at the Island Gold District advancing both the shaft and mill expansion. Substantially, all capital for the Phase 3+ shaft expansion has been spent or committed. Since shaft sinking was completed late in the first quarter, progress has been made on shaft equipping and the shaft bottom infrastructure with commissioning expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027. This is an important catalyst to increase underground mining rates to 2,400 tonnes per day in the first quarter of 2027 and ultimately to 3,000 tonnes per day in 2029. The Island Gold District expansion is also well underway with 33% of the growth capital spent or committed. As shown on the slide, cladding and roofing activities for the new mill building are now complete, with all 8 leach tanks and 2 detox tanks erected. With all the earthworks, concrete foundation and steel erected, the key elements of the mill expansion have been significantly derisked. The Island Gold District remains on track for completion in the first quarter of 2028, and we'll turn the operation to one of Canada's largest, lowest cost and most profitable gold mines. Over to Slide 13. Young-Davidson produced 33,000 ounces of gold in the second quarter, 10% higher than the previous quarter, but below plan. Production was impacted by the seismic event in June and weather-related power outages in May. The seismic event in June impacted access to higher-grade stopes that were supplying approximately 2,500 tonnes per day. This contributed to lower than planned mining rates of 7,132 tonnes per day and grades of 1.75 grams per tonne. As previously disclosed, we are expecting lower mining rates through the remainder of the year as well as lower grades. As a result, our full year production guidance for Young-Davidson has been reduced to between 110 -- sorry, 100,000 and 115,000 ounces with a corresponding increase in our cost guidance. Despite what was a challenging quarter for Young-Davidson, the operation generated strong mine site free cash flow of $67 million. At current gold prices, we expect the operation will continue generating positive free cash flow through the second half of 2026. Turning to Slide 14. I'll now provide more detail on the seismic event and impact. Seismicity is a normal part of underground mining and seismic events are not uncommon. Our ongoing focus is to extract our mineral reserves with a disciplined and geotechnically sound approach that manages and mitigates stress underground in order to ensure the safety of our workforce and minimize any disruptions. We experienced 2 seismic events in June, one of which had no impact. The other cause damage to the drift access on the 9410 level. In both cases, there were no injuries given the systems and protocols we have in place. Seismic event near the 9410 level has delayed access to higher grade stopes that were supplying approximately 2,500 tonnes per day and scheduled to be mined during the second half of this year. As a result, our mining rates are expected to average 5,000 tonnes per day for the remainder of the year, and we expect mine grades to average similar levels as the 1.75 grams per tonne mined in the second quarter. We have not lost any reserves in the impacted area, and we will be completing rehabilitation work to reestablish access to the 9410 level during the second half of 2026. We also will be implementing enhanced ground support and other measures, which are all expected to support higher mining rates beyond 2026. These include longer primary support through the use of 8-foot dynamic ground support bolts, additional cable bolting, use of [ Harrier ] gauge screen and optimization of the extraction sequence to manage and mitigate stress as underground mining moves deeper. The rehabilitation work and additional ground support is expected to add approximately $10 million of sustaining capital. Combined with the lower production rates, Young-Davidson's costs are expected to temporarily increase in the second half of the year with total cash costs averaging $2,100 per ounce and mine site all-in sustaining costs averaging $3,300 per ounce. Looking beyond 2026, we expect the rehab work, optimized mine plan and enhanced ground support will drive mining and production rates higher and costs considerably lower. We are currently working on an updated mine plan, and we'll provide further detail our 3-year guidance release in early 2027. Over to Slide 15. Production from the Mulatos district totaled 30,100 ounces, including 25,100 ounces from La Yaqui Grande. Production was 8% lower than the previous quarter, driven by lower tonnes and grade stack as well as slower-than-expected recoveries at La Yaqui Grande. Due to a longer leach cycle and increasing pad height, it is taking longer to recover ounces previously stacked on the leach pad. As a result, we have reduced our production guidance from Mulatos to between 120,000 and 135,000 ounces with a corresponding increase in costs. Our overall recovery expectations for La Yaqui Grande remains unchanged, and the 2026 production guidance revision only reflects the impact of timing. The Mulatos district generated strong mine site free cash flow of $61 million, consistent with the first quarter, while funding construction of the PDA project, a significant exploration program and paying $27 million in cash taxes during the quarter. Over to Slide 16. The PDA project remains within budget and on schedule for first production in mid-2027. Work during the quarter included [indiscernible] construction, underground mine development and structural steel and concrete foundation work for the mill. A total of $21 million of development capital was spent at PDA during the quarter. We expect capital spending to increase in the second half of the year as construction activities ramp up. PDA is the future of Mulatos and just a starting point as the operation transitions to processing higher grade sulfide mineralization. The addition of a mill for PDA is opening up a number of new near mine and regional exploration opportunities for additional higher-grade mineralization within the district. Over to Slide 17. At Lynn Lake, we spent $36 million in development capital during the quarter, advancing several key construction milestones. Major achievements included completing the temporary camp expansion, progressing work on the permanent camp and continuing site preparation and earthworks for the mill area and other site-wide infrastructure. We also began the [ Collins ] starter pit visible on the top left corner of this photo taken earlier in July. The project remains on budget and on schedule for completion in the first half of 2029 and will be a key contributor to achieving our goal of producing 1 million ounces annually by the end of the decade. With that, I will turn the call over to our Senior Vice President of Exploration, Scott R.G. Parsons to discuss our recent exploration results at the Island Gold district.
Scott R. Parsons
executiveThank you, Luc. Turning to Slide 18, in June, we provided an exploration update for Island Gold District, which outlined why we have confidence the operation will continue growing well beyond what was detailed in Island Gold District expansion study. In addition to ongoing success in the main Island Gold structure, we have continued to define high-grade mineralization across several other targets in the district. These targets are being evaluated as potential sources of higher -- additional higher-grade mill feed that would allow us to increase the proportion of high-grade ore to be processed with an expanded Magino mill and push production rates well above the 534,000 ounce annual average outlined in the study. These target areas include Island Gold West extension, Island Gold West [indiscernible] located in proximity to existing underground infrastructure as well as the past producing Cline-Pick and Edwards mines located 7 kilometers from the Magino mill. Turning to Slide 19. One of the highlights of the release was the discovery of a new high-grade zone located between 250 and 500 meters west of existing underground reserves and resources. This new zone is a long [indiscernible] gold deposit, measures 200 by 300 meters based on drilling completed to date and remains open down plunge into the West. We also further expanded high-grade mineralization closer to surface within Island Gold West upplunge area. The West [indiscernible] is accessible via the existing ramp, offering a low-cost near-term opportunity to further increase underground mining rates beyond the planned 3,000 tonnes per day to be skipped via the shaft. Additional high-grade underground ore would boost the district's future annual production by displacing lower grade Magino open pit feed in the expanded mill. Turning to Slide 20. Looking regionally, drilling the past producing Cline-Pick and Edwards mine continues to extend high-grade mineralization beyond the limits of previous mining. Earlier this year, we reported the best hole drilled to date at Cline-Pick having intersected 178 grams per tonne gold over 3.5 meters. Step-out drilling from this hole continues to successfully intersect and extend additional higher-grade mineralization. This included another highlight hole announced in June, which intersected 68 grams per tonne over 3.1 meters. Over to Slide 21. Taking a step back, this 10-kilometer long section highlights the significant potential across the district. Island Gold main structure has grown in each and every year that we've owned it from less than 2 million ounces of reserves and resources in 2017 to what is now approaching 7 million ounces, net of the 1.7 million ounces produced. High-grade mineralization at Island Gold has so far been defined to a depth of 1,600 meters, and the deposit remains open laterally and at depth. Over to the east, the deepest hole drilled today at Cline-Pick to a vertical depth of 540 meters, and the target remains open in multiple directions, including at depth. By comparison, underground mines within the Canadian Shield are being mined beyond depths of 3 kilometers, highlighting the significant potential for growth. Additionally, limited drilling has been completed with a 7-kilometer gap between Island Gold and Cline-Pick and further along strike to the northeast across our broader 60,000-hectare land package. We have no shortage of high-quality, higher grade targets and believe we're only starting to scratch the surface of exploration across the district. As we further define these targets and additional sources of high-grade ore, we see excellent potential for this to support further production growth by leveraging our existing and planned infrastructure. With that, I'll turn the call back to John.
John McCluskey
executiveThank you, Scott. I'll turn the call over to the operator and open the call for your questions. .
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Sathish Kasinathan with Bank of America.
Sathish Kasinathan
analystMy first question is on the cost guidance for the year. Thanks for all the details that you've provided. Can you provide a bit more color on the $90 per ounce increase in costs related to labor inflation? More specifically, what assumptions were embedded in your original guidance at the start of the year? And what changed over the last 6 months? And how much of this increase should we see as structural as you move into 2027?
Greg Fisher
executiveSathish, it's Greg here. The $90 per ounce is a combination of contractors and labor, like our internal labor, so it's not all in our internal labor. But our assumption at the beginning of the year was about a 4% increase in labor rates and contractor rates. We've seen more profound increases on the contractor side, especially with respect to underground development. And as we've -- as we're ramping up Island Gold, we're relying a little bit more heavily on contractors, and we've seen that cost pressure there. So it's a little bit on that side. It's also on the open pit side with our mechanics and on the contractors that help with the big open pit equipment that we've seen a little bit of pressure as well and also just a higher reliance on it this year. But as we move to put the [indiscernible] in place by the end of this year, we'll wind that reliance down. But then the last piece is just we implemented what we call a retention program for our Canadian operations midyear. And that had a cost impact of about $30 per ounce at our Canadian operations. And it's something that is much more retention focused. So it will be payable in future years, but we need to accrue that cost over the next couple of years. And that's just something that we had not budgeted, but we implemented midyear just in response to the competitive market environment that we're seeing in Canada.
Sathish Kasinathan
analystOkay. Maybe my second question is on the underground mining rates at Island Gold. Second quarter saw solid improvement 1,550 tonnes per day. As you think about reaching 2,000 tonnes per day by year-end, can you walk us through the key operational milestones required over the next 6 months? What are the primary gating factors today?
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. Sathish, it's Luc here. So it's a continuation of our ramp up. Certainly, it's been tracking quite well in the first half of the year. And as we continue to advance with our development rates in the second half of the year to support additional mining fronts, we'll continue to be able to meet the second half expectation with regards to the ramp up. So it will be a gradual ramp up over the next 6 months, but our plan is to exit at the end of the year at 2,000 tonnes per day.
Sathish Kasinathan
analystOkay. My final question is on the capital allocation side, with $1.2 billion in liquidity, strong free cash flow and the portfolio of organic projects already underway, how are you thinking about M&A today? Has the recent disruption at Young-Davidson changed your appetite for acquisitions as a way to diversify your portfolio?
John McCluskey
executiveWe're not really that focused on M&A right now. We have a watching brief across the market as you can appreciate all mining companies do. But I think we outlined for you in the in the presentation on the call so far that we've got plenty of things to focus on over the next 6 months in terms of getting our Young-Davidson operation back on track, completing the -- all the development work we need to achieve over the course of the balance of this year and into next year, to sustain higher mining rates at Island Gold. We are -- we've moved underground now at Mulatos. We've got 2 [indiscernible] going underground. We've got a mill under construction there. And we've got a full-blown construction project at Lynn Lake. That's basically a $920 million project, building a brand in mine. So we've got plenty of organic growth underway as we speak and plenty of things to focus on. And I think for Alamos at the moment, while we see the market as being fairly attractive, especially with gold prices having pulled back so strongly over the last number of months. It's just not a focus for us right now.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies.
Fahad Tariq
analystSorry if I missed this, but on La Yaqui Grande, the longer leach cycles, is that expected to -- can you just provide a bit more detail as to what's causing it. I saw that it was related to the height of the pad. Is there any way to kind of resolve that? And does it impact, I guess, 2027?
Luc Guimond
executiveYes, it's Luc here. It's 2 things. It's just the ore characteristic itself that's being stocked as well as the height of the leach pad, which is resulting in the longer leach cycle. But overall, recoveries are still expected to be 85%, just taking a bit longer to come through over the course of the plan that we expected for 2026. So no loss of ounces. The ounces will just end up being deferred into the 2027 plan, and we'll provide further clarity on that as well once we certainly update our 3-year guidance at the end of the year with regards to our mine plans moving forward for for Mexico, including PDA.
John McCluskey
executiveAnd I think it's important to note that the mine is right at the very end of its life. I mean, we've -- we'll continue stacking ore into Q1 of next year. But by that time, it's pretty much done. And after that, it's residual leaching. So it's not like this is some sort of an ongoing issue for us over many years to come. We're talking about a number of months, additional months to get out the balance of the gold that we stacked on the leach pad.
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. The other thing I would add there is given our experience with the Mulatos operation as well. We stopped mining there it a couple of years ago, and we've been still residual leaching, but from the point of view of the number of ounces that we stack at the Mulatos district over the life of that mine, it would take that amount of time to be able to get all the ounces out, but we've been actually getting all the ounces, and we expect to recover all the ounces that we had in inventory. So we don't see anything different with regards to La Yaqui Grande. Obviously, it's not a similar scale to what we did at Mulatos from a point of view, height of the leach pad and the amount of tonnes that we stock. But at the end of the day, we still expect to get all of the ounces in a shorter time frame over the course of 2027.
Fahad Tariq
analystOkay. That's helpful. And then maybe just switching gears to Island Gold. Obviously, a prolific kind of exploration upside there, really high grade, lots of kind of other additional deposits that are being explored. Can you just remind us, theoretically, if we think about the underground rates, I recall that it's not constrained, but that 3,000 tonnes per day could be kind of the upper limit or close to the upper limit. Can you just remind us how the ore feed could theoretically change if there's additional high-grade ounces that are discovered underground and that can be mined.
Luc Guimond
executiveSorry, Fahad. Could you just repeat that question for me?
Fahad Tariq
analystI'm just trying to get a sense of what Island Gold underground, what could be the theoretical kind of upside to the 3,000 tonnes per day because there seems to be a lot of underground ounces that are high grade that are being discovered additional deposits, more upside. I'm just trying to understand like how much higher than 3,000 tonnes per day could be mined underground at Island Gold.
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. Well, there's certainly opportunities with regards to the infrastructure that we have in place. I mean, ultimately, with the shaft infrastructure we're putting in place, we'll have capacity to be able to handle 5,500 tonnes a day of ore and waste through that infrastructure. Certainly, we're embarked on -- the first step is getting us to 2,400 tonnes a day when we move into 2027 and ultimately 3,000 tonnes a day once we move into 2029. Regionally, there are a number of targets within the Island Gold District that provide opportunities for additional mill feed at higher grade, displacing some of the lower grade that we get out of Magino. Certainly, in the Upper West area, where we're starting to have some success there with regards to exploration as well as within the region itself with Cline-Pick and Edwards, those are other independent access points for infrastructure requirements that would provide additional mill feed to be able to support higher grade over the long term for that district. And really, that's one of the big visions that we have for that camp and which was really the driver for overall -- looking at that overall mill expansion as well to 20,000 tonnes per day.
John McCluskey
executiveIn the time frame Luc's referring to, 3,000 tonnes a day is -- that's a pretty good rate for that shop to handle and you've got to realize it's as much a function of having enough faces open across the mine in order to supply that 3,000 tonnes a day, where the opportunity lies is utilizing the ramp. Where we're having success in the Upper West extension, that's on a much shallower level than where we're mining underground right now. It's up around the 700-meter level. And we would we would envision with the operations shifting from ramp to shop, we'd open up the possibility to bring us as much as 1,000 tonnes a day up from the Upper West zone utilizing the ramp. So that's where I think the immediate opportunity lies for us to increase mining rates from underground at Island.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Ovais Habib with Scotiabank. .
Ovais Habib
analystJust a couple of questions from me. Just starting off with Island Gold District. In terms of -- mining rates seem to be improving at Island Gold, milling rates and mining rates seem to be improving at Magino as well. I was just wondering in terms of you brought the upper end of the guidance down a little bit on the Island Gold District. Any color on that front? And what's the plan kind of going into then 2027? Is that what we should be expecting going into 2027? Or this is just the ramp-up period that we should be kind of considering?
Greg Fisher
executiveSo Ovais, it's Greg here. I mean we've kept the original guidance. I mean, ultimately, our low-end previously was 290,000 ounces. That stays the same. So we have strong confidence that we're going to hit our guidance as a starting point. As you pointed out, the mining rates are ramping up exactly as we expected. Q1 was over 1,400 tonnes per day. Q2 was 1,550. We're starting to see that improve even into July as we expected. So mining rates are going very well. On the Magino side, Q1 was a slower start. But since then, we've seen a significant improvement with June being at 9,800 tonnes per day and into July, we're at 10,000 tonnes per day. . So the mine is performing very well as expected. I think where we just viewed it as we were in a position that we were revising our guidance overall, given the seismic events at Island -- sorry, seismic event at Young-Davidson. So we just took the opportunity to tighten the range. Ultimately, it was a 40,000 ounce range, and given the first half has already been completed, we just felt that 40,000 ounces was a big range for the second half. So we just tightened that down to 20,000 ounces, but it's not indicative of our view on this asset, meaning its production guidance for for 2026 and no impact into 2027 onwards.
Ovais Habib
analystGot it. And then just a follow-up to Fahad's question in terms of increasing mining rates and taking more from Island to displace some of the ore from Magino. I mean, John, you talked about the West side, and that's been showcasing fairly well in terms of what Scott is doing on the exploration side. When would you be in some sort of position to start talking about or start including that into your mine plan? And just how should we look at it? Is that more of a 2027 situation? Or do you think it's more longer term?
John McCluskey
executiveJust a second, I'll get my crystal ball. That's -- we're in the exploration phase there right now. It's going very, very well. We started the year with roughly 300,000 ounces of inferred. I'd like to see it grow into that 0.5 million ounce range because that's when it makes sense to start putting a mine plan around the zone and really focused on the effort that it's going to take to develop it as a, call it, theoretical 1,000 tonne per day ramp operation. And we've -- obviously, this is a real focus for us it's such an immediate -- it's very low CapEx and a very, very quick payback, utilizes an existing infrastructure, all falls within our permits. I mean, there's very little that we would have to do and very little capital required in order to get that all rolling. So you can imagine it's a real high priority for us, but precisely when we -- I'd love to see it come in by 2029, that would be a big win. If we get any earlier than that, it would be a massive win. But we're throwing everything at it right now, and that started with a big big portion of our exploration budget. Thankfully, the numbers are coming in very, very nicely. And I think we're going to start putting some shapes around those resources at the end of the year and see if we can expand on the reserve. And then from there, we would be working on mine plans and so forth.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC.
Cosmos Chiu
analystMaybe my first question is on CapEx, especially growth CapEx. I see that in Q2 for Island Gold District, for example, growth CapEx decreased from Q1. And Lynn Lake, on the other hand, increase. But if I were to look at those 2 assets, if I took a look at first half spend, still below 50% of your full year guidance. So I guess my question is, the Q2 spending, was it as planned? And if that's the case, what's the plan in terms of increasing that velocity of spend in the second half to get to your guidance?
Greg Fisher
executiveThis is Greg here. So the -- it's timing related. And with Lynn Lake, it's obviously a ramp-up. So as we continue on with the project, we're going to be spending a little bit more. So Q2 was a little bit lower, but as we move into Q3 and Q4, we're going to see that continue to step up, and that's going to continue to step up even further into '27 as part of that ramp-up. On Island Gold, it was just simply timing. Ultimately, we still plan to spend what we had put in our guidance for the year, and that's going to put us on track for the shaft being completed in in the first quarter, and it's setting ourselves up well for the Magino mill expansion to be completed in the first quarter of 2028.
Cosmos Chiu
analystGreat. Maybe talking about guidance here. As you mentioned, you increased your cost guidance for all 3 assets. And I understand Young-Davidson, the reasons behind in [indiscernible], the reason behind it. Island Gold, you talked about inflation as well. But as you mentioned, Greg, production really didn't change. Production guidance didn't really change for Island Gold. And so even on that cost guidance went up by about 17%. So again, is that really pure inflation in terms of Island Gold that cost increase? And would you say Q2-wise, did you see a lot of the inflationary pressure come through in Q2 versus Q1? Was there any kind of impact on Q1? Did they all come through in Q2? And if that's the case, what have you factored in, in terms of further inflationary pressures as you formulate your full year guidance for costs? Like are you seeing another straight line in terms of did you factor in even more inflation into Q3 and Q4 to come up with your new guidance for Island Gold in terms of cost for the year?
John McCluskey
executiveYes. So breaking down that, I mean, you're right, production doesn't changed. So it's not a production driver. It is what I'd call inflation and a little bit of scope change on the contractors. And I touched on this earlier in the call -- we are relying -- given the fact that we're going from 8,000 meters of development to 10,000 meters of development this year to -- we're ultimately getting up to 15,000 meters of development over the longer run at Island Gold, we're hiring, but at the same time, we need to bring contractors in to support that extra development. Those contractors are costing more money than what we had anticipated. We've seen that more profoundly in Q2 than in Q1 and we expect that to continue through the rest of the year. The other piece is in -- as I mentioned, midyear, we put in a new compensation structure, really a retention program for all for our Canadian operations, that was implemented in June. So that is having an impact on the second half of the year, and that will continue into 2027 as something that's impacting the cost structure at at Island Gold, but it's also critically important to making sure that we hit our ramp-up to achieve what we want to achieve this year and moving into higher -- even higher mining rates in 2027.
Cosmos Chiu
analystOkay. And maybe one last question, earlier this month, we're all kind of suffocating from those forest fires or the [indiscernible] of the forest fires in [indiscernible] even in Toronto. Any kind of impact on your Northern Ontario operations to both of them in terms of the forest fires up north?
Luc Guimond
executiveCosmo, it's Luc here. No, nothing significant. Young-Davidson had no interruptions at all due to any sort of forest fires in the region. Actually has been pretty quiet in that region. The Island District had more -- it was not necessarily [indiscernible] proximity to the mining operation was more related to smoke. We did have some -- a couple of minor interruptions with a couple of ships, but nothing significant and really had no effect on our performance through the second quarter. At Lynn Lake, we were evacuated for 1 week. It was a fire evacuation that was provided notice to the community as well as our project. But we were only out of the project for a week and remobilized within about a week after that. So probably about a 2-week effect overall from the notice of evacuating to getting back to full-scale construction activities other than that, nothing. It's been noneventful for the year.
Operator
operatorAnd your next question is from the line of Don DeMarco with National Bank.
Don DeMarco
analystLuc, just -- first question to you. you mentioned that in H2, at Young-Davidson, the rehabilitation work in the 9410 levels to be completed and you expect to get back into the stope and continue mining. With this, do you expect just a step change right back up to 2,500 tonnes per day? Or will it be more of a progressive ramp-up in mining rates?
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. I mean our focus is certainly to look at providing the additional enhanced ground support on 9410, but also a couple of other levels within that Western mining front area. And to your point, it was providing about 2,500 tonnes per day of of a mining rate through that district. Once we get the rehabilitation completed through the second half of the year, we will look -- our expectation is to get above 7,000 tonnes a day moving forward. But part of this is also just reviewing the overall extraction sequence of the ore body at depth below 9410. And that's part of the work that's ongoing right now. And we'll be looking to provide further clarity to that by the end of the year as part of our 3-year guidance. But our full expectation is to ramp up certainly as we move forward into 2027 and for the longer term. And with the expectation of being above 7,000 tonnes per day.
Don DeMarco
analystOkay. Just continuing with Young-Davidson, and you mentioned that maybe some of the other levels might require some additional support. Like is the higher level ground support? Is it mine wide? Or is it just the 9410 level or in the vicinity of that area? And how much of the increase in costs are just onetime versus those that might be structural like do you foresee requiring an indefinite level of higher ground support in some areas?
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. It's primarily in the lower levels, below 9410, Don, that we're talking about with regards to the enhanced ground support. So the areas that we've already developed, certainly, we'll look to apply that enhanced ground support, which, as I mentioned on the call, refers to a little longer embedded dynamic support, some cabling requirements as well as the gauge of the mesh that we're using as part of that enhanced ground support. So that will occur, like I said, over the rest of the year. The other advantage we have, just to be aware of, is there's a lot of the developments that's not actually in place in the lower mine. So that's -- those are areas that we just haven't brought into the mine plan yet. But over the course of the next number of years, we would be bringing into the mine plan. So that will be brand new development. And as part of that brand-new development, it will have the enhanced ground support that we're implementing currently with what we're upgrading in the areas that we've already developed.
Greg Fisher
executiveSo I mean just adding that it will be the standard going forward in the lower mine. We will have added costs associated with that, but it might be $10 million -- $10 million to $15 million a year. That is added to sustaining capital. It's not a bigger number than that.
Don DeMarco
analystAnd maybe just as a final question and sticking with Young-Davidson mill. Can you provide some color on the frequency and magnitude of seismic events over Young-Davidson operating mine? Just trying to get a sense of the probability of something like this reoccurring? I mean, you mentioned seismic is a normal part of mining. Have you noticed trends at Young-Davidson, are the events occurring at a higher frequency as the mine deepens? If you could just provide a little bit more color on the history and looking forward on these type of events.
Luc Guimond
executiveYes. I think we've touched on this before. It is a normal part of mining activity. Once you're underground mining, you are going to create seismic activity. It is just normal course of business once we started tracking the ore body. But as far as the frequency or the the magnitude of the events, it's not that we're seeing more events overall or higher events overall. It's just a function of, obviously, the extraction sequence and what we're doing from an underground perspective. And as part of this review that I'm talking about with regards to the overall extraction sequence in the lower mine and the development plan that we're putting in place with regards to the enhanced ground support in the existing development as well as where we're going to be in the new sections that we haven't developed yet. We fully expect with what we're going to put in place from a ground support point of view and a point of view of reviewing the mining sequence that we'll be able to effectively manage seismicity and manage the seismicity and extract the ore body responsibly as we continue to do all along and be more reliant on a consistent mining plan to deliver on.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. This concludes the morning's call. If you have any further questions that have not been answered, please feel free to contact Mr. Scott Parsons at (416) 368-9932, extension 5439.
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