Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining the Aldar Properties H1 2026 Financial Results Presentation. My name is Gabriel, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to your host, Mr. Faisal Falaknaz. Please go ahead.

[Foreign Language] Thank you all for joining today's call to discuss Aldar's financial results for the first half of 2026. As you know, the latter part of the first quarter and much of the second quarter coincided with a period of heightened regional tension, disrupting market activity across the UAE. However, the UAE has demonstrated remarkable resilience in many dimensions from security to continuity and economic activity. We have seen business activity continuing largely uninterrupted, public and private sector investment commitments reinforce and consumer confidence has held up well. Against that backdrop, Aldar delivered a resilient first half, underpinned by a sizable backlog, disciplined execution and the defensive qualities of our recurring income platform, notwithstanding softer development sales and a weaker hospitality performance, which I will cover in more detail. At group level, first half revenue increased 8% year-on-year to AED 16.8 billion, EBITDA rose 19% to AED 6.3 billion and net profit after tax increased 18% to AED 4.9 billion. Earnings per share rose 17% to AED 0.53. Within Aldar Development, group development sales declined 34% to AED 12.1 billion year-on-year, reflecting a more measured approach to new launches in the UAE in response to prevailing market conditions. EBITDA increased 21% year-on-year to AED 4 billion in the first half, driven by recognition of our development revenue backlog, which today stands at AED 71.6 billion. Aldar Investment delivered a revenue growth of 12% year-on-year to AED 4.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to AED 1.6 billion, supported by high occupancy, steady rental growth across core asset classes and contributions from recent acquisitions. Assets under management increased to AED 55.8 billion. We remain focused on prudent capital deployment while continuing to progress on our develop-to-hold pipeline, which now stands at AED 20 billion, supporting further diversification and income growth over the next 4 years. Our balance sheet remains robust with group liquidity of AED 37.1 billion, underpinning our strategy and countercyclical approach. On Slide #4, we summarize year-to-date recent announcements across the group. I will only highlight key developments that took place during the second quarter and into July. At the group level, we further enhanced our financial position in April by closing a AED 5 billion 5-year syndicated sustainability-linked revolving credit facility, attracting strong demand from regional and international banks and reflecting confidence in the group's credit strength. On land replenishment, last week, we announced Marsa Al Saadiyat, a landmark AED 100 billion waterfront destination on Saadiyat Island with Aldar as the master developer. In this role, Aldar will be responsible for securing overall master plan approvals, coordinating the district-wide development strategy as well as delivering the primary infrastructure across the destination and delivering over 7,000 units with a combined gross development value exceeding [ AED 70 billion. ] We plan to commence sales -- exceeding AED 60 billion. We plan to commence sales on Marsa Al Saadiyat during the second half of this year. During the quarter, we launched 3 new development projects in Abu Dhabi, Yas Park Place and Al Ghadeer Gardens and The Orchids at Yas Acres, which were all well received by the market. In July, we launched the second phase of Al Ghadeer Gardens in Seih Al Sedeirah; and The Canopies, which is the first launch at Yas Point, a new waterfront destination on the North Shore of Yas Island with a GDV of about AED 6 billion. During the quarter, Aldar Investment acquired 3 additional assets in KEZAD for AED 650 million and added 5 new develop-to-hold projects valued at AED 5.2 billion to the pipeline, which now totals AED 20 billion, which is expected to drive further scale, diversification and earnings growth over the next 4 years. The 5 new D-Hold projects are 2 affordable value housing projects in Abu Dhabi in collaboration with the DMT; a residential and community retail development in Dubai Studio City; and 2 schools in Abu Dhabi, first, the relocation of Cranleigh Abu Dhabi to a new purpose-built campus on Saadiyat Island; and second, the new Al Ghadeer British School as part of the recently launched Al Ghadeer Gardens community, scheduled to open for the 2030-2031 academic year and accommodate more than 2,800 students. Turning to Slide #5, where you will find more information on Aldar Development. The business delivered a solid first half performance, supported by continued project delivery, backlog conversion and a disciplined launch strategy. Revenue increased 10% year-on-year to AED 12.4 billion while EBITDA rose 21% to AED 4 billion, reflecting steady delivery across key developments. As mentioned earlier, group development sales declined 34% to AED 12.1 billion, reflecting a more measured approach to new launches in the UAE from a deliberate pause at first, followed by a greater emphasis on mid-market product launches and response to prevailing market conditions. Nevertheless, first half UAE sales still came in at AED 9.4 billion with inventory sales accounting for 67% and the 3 new launches in the second quarter achieving over 80% sold status or in the case of Al Ghadeer Gardens, nearly sold out, demonstrating resilient demand for well-located family-oriented communities and providing us strong evidence to ramp up launch activity in the second half of the year, all while we remain disciplined on pricing and phasing and payment plans. Our international businesses continued to gain momentum with H1 sales of AED 1.4 billion at SODIC in Egypt and AED 1.2 billion at London Square in the U.K. The group development backlog remains substantial at AED 71.6 billion, including AED 59.9 million in the UAE, providing strong visibility on revenue and cash flows over the next 2 to 3 years. Turning now to Slide #6. You will see further detail on UAE development sales, notably UAE sales to overseas and expatriate resident buyers totaled AED 7.6 billion, representing 80% of UAE sales, highlighting continued international confidence in Abu Dhabi as a global living and investment destination. We handed over 1,000 units in the first half already surpassing the full year 2025 total of about 850 units, reflecting strong delivery momentum on the ground. Cash collections totaled AED 7.6 billion, in line with contractual payment schedules and demonstrating continued buyer commitment. Default rates remained low and manageable with 90-day-plus default at 1.3% to 2%, a modest uptick from historical levels of around 1%. While we have seen some upward pressure on construction costs following the geopolitical developments, the impact has been selective, and we have mitigated a significant portion of these pressures through competitive tendering, early procurement, forward purchasing of materials and advanced payment to contractors where cost increases have occurred, they have been partially offset by stronger pricing. We, therefore, continue to expect project margins to remain broadly unchanged. On Slide #7, you will find details on Aldar Investment, which has continued to grow as well as a well-diversified platform with AED 55.8 billion of assets under management, delivering a strong base of recurring income. Revenue increased 12% year-on-year to AED 4.2 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 18% to AED 1.8 billion. Performance was supported by high occupancy, long-term lease structures and rental growth across investment properties as well as contributions from recent strategic acquisitions and completed D-Hold projects and finally, from continued growth at Aldar Education and Aldar Estates. The second quarter reinforced the defensive and diversified value of the business with every segment performing well through the disruption other than the hospitality segment. Turning to Slide #8. The investment properties portfolio delivered strong growth in H1 with adjusted EBITDA increasing 30% year-on-year to AED 1.3 billion. Performance was supported by portfolio-wide occupancy of 95%. Commercial adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to AED 478 million. Occupancy remained high at 99%, driven by strong demand for Grade A office space from a diversified tenant base that includes government-related entities and established corporates and further supported by the newly acquired buildings at The Link in Masdar City in April, contributing about AED 15 million of adjusted EBITDA in the period. Residential adjusted EBITDA was AED 261 million, down 1%, reflecting the turnover of a bulk lease and temporary vacancies related to refurbishment at Eastern Mangroves. Nevertheless, occupancy remained high at 96%. Retail adjusted EBITDA increased 68% to AED 463 million, supported by strong fundamentals across the core portfolio and contributions from The Galleria Luxury and the recently completed D-Hold asset, the Grove Mall expected to open in Q4. Overall retail portfolio occupancy stands at 96%, excluding Remal Mall and Grove Mall. Yas Mall specifically maintained occupancy of 96%, with tenant sales and footfall down 2.5% and 9% year-on-year, respectively. Industrial & Logistics adjusted EBITDA increased 173% to AED 95 million with occupancy at 97%. Growth was supported by continued organic growth, the acquisition contributions of Al Markaz and 2 KEZAD assets last year as well as the 3 additional purpose-built multi-let warehouses in KEZAD acquired this year. And finally, the completed D-Hold project of 20,000 square meter build-to-suit facility for Emirates Snack Foods. A quick note on the recent [ Abu Dhabi ] rental measure whereby rental caps were introduced from 5% to 0%, our understanding is this remains a temporary initiative. And to date, our exposure has been limited. As a reminder, our largest commercial assets are excluded as they are located in a free zone and the majority of our residential units set a long-term bulk corporate leases with contractual escalations. Therefore, the impact on EBITDA is immaterial. And if anything, this initiative only confirms how under-rented and in-demand Abu Dhabi residential remains. Turning to Slide #9 in Hospitality & Leisure. Adjusted EBITDA was AED 140 million, a decline of 18% year-on-year with performance impacted by regional geopolitical developments. Occupancy was 54% in the first half with RevPAR decreasing 7% to AED 430. However, ADR increased 21% to AED 800, demonstrating the portfolio's ability to maintain pricing even in a challenging operating environment. In Education, adjusted EBITDA increased 4% to AED 133 million, driven by steady organic performance and annualization of new schools such as Noya British Academy and Muna British Academy. Term 3 retention remained high. And more notably, we are seeing a very positive trend in enrollment for the upcoming academic year, which could be regarded as an indicator of demographic stability in the UAE, 75% of students across our 13% operated -- sorry, across our operated 13 operated schools have reregistered for the next year, which is ahead of July of last year. Meanwhile, we have received applications from over 4,000 new students, which is in line with this time last year. Aldar Estates adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to AED 227 million, reflecting strong contract momentum across PM and FM and integrated community services. The business now manages approximately 146,000 residential units and 2.5 million square meters of prime retail and commercial space with contracts valued at more than AED 2.9 billion. Turning to Slide #10 and our key balance sheet metrics. Over the last couple of years, we have taken a countercyclical approach to funding and liquidity management aimed at reinforcing our financial resilience and building a robust capital buffer that positions us well to navigate periods of volatility, and this approach has served us very well throughout the recent disruption. The AED 5 billion sustainability linked revolving credit facility closed in April further diversified funding sources and strengthened financial flexibility. We have maintained a prudent leverage profile with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.4x and adjusted EBITDA to interest expense at 7x. These leverage and coverage metrics include the impact of debt accounted AED 12.9 billion in hybrid capital notes. Total available liquidity stood at AED 37.1 billion at the end of June, comprising AED 16.8 billion of free and unrestricted cash and AED 20.3 billion of committed undrawn bank facilities. The debt maturity profile remains well spread with an average senior debt maturity of 4.5 years and no material refinancing requirements in the near term. Looking ahead, our focus remains on our disciplined capital deployment aligned to long-term value creation and strategic priorities. You will find our approach to sustainability and key highlights on Slide 11 and 12. We have continued to make tangible progress under our sustainability framework while maintaining our MSCI rating of A, our #1 ranking among GCC real estate companies in Dow Jones Sustainability Index and our inclusion in the FTSE4Good Index Series. All new developments launched in Abu Dhabi in the first half achieved a 3 Pearl Estidama design rating, while all new developments achieved a 2-star Fitwel rating. We also remained ahead of our 2026 efficiency targets with a 34% reduction in energy use intensity by design against ASHRAE 2007, a 42% reduction in water use intensity by design against the Estidama baseline and a 39% reduction in embodied carbon in construction materials. Across our existing assets, energy consumption reduced by 12% and water consumption by 20%, while 98% of construction and demolition waste was recycled. All investment opportunities also underwent ESG due diligence and lost time injury frequency rate remained low at 0.04. On human capital, we outperformed our NAFIS commitment to recruit 1,000 Emiratis by 2026, reaching the target ahead of schedule with UAE nationals now representing 46% of the group's employee base. Turning to Slide 13 on guidance. This has been no ordinary year. Against a more challenging regional backdrop, we are pleased with the resilience of the business and the solid performance delivered in the first half. We remain confident in the long-term outlook for Aldar and the UAE, supported by the company's resilience, continued investment and clear commitment to economic growth and diversification. That said, in light of the current ongoing environment, we are updating certain full year 2026 metrics. We now expect full year group development sales of AED 30 billion to AED 35 billion -- AED 30 billion to AED 34 billion, revised down from AED 45 billion to AED 49 billion, reflecting the impact of launch timing and a product offering in the first half of the year given the more measured demand environment. Despite this, demand remains healthy and we continue to see strong customer interest across our key projects and destinations. Delivering the revised guidance will require a substantial stronger sales contribution in the second half, and we expect a busy year H2 launch calendar with a faster pace of releases across established and new destinations, including the planned first launch at Marsa Al Saadiyat. This will be supported by continued sales of existing inventory and contributions from our international platforms. As our development EBITDA guidance is revised to AED 8.9 billion to AED 9.3 billion from AED 9.5 billion to AED 10 billion while our UAE development gross profit margin guidance of 37% to 39% is unchanged and was supported by a first half margin of 38%. Group adjusted EBITDA guidance is revised to AED 12.3 billion to AED 12.7 billion, still representing strong growth over the AED 9.9 billion delivered last year, reflecting the resilience of our backlog, project execution and recurring income. Guidance for Aldar Investment adjusted EBITDA of AED 3.7 billion to AED 3.9 billion is unchanged, reflecting the strength, defensibility and visibility of our diversified recurring income platform where performance continues to be supported by high occupancy, long term lease structures, organic rental rate, contributions from recent acquisitions and the completion of develop-to-hold assets. Our capital development guidance is also unchanged at AED billion to AED 4 billion from M&A and AED 3 billion to AED 4 billion for D-Hold CapEx. We remain fully committed to our 2030 ambition and to the strategic priorities that underpin it. That said, on our previously communicated 3-year guidance, we are not reaffirming nor updating those targets at this stage. They were established against an earlier operating backdrop and as we enter our annual budgeting and business planning cycle, we believe it is more appropriate to reassess the medium-term outlook comprehensively rather than update individual elements today. We expect to provide an updated medium-term guidance alongside our 2026 full year results. And until then, the revised guidance presented today should be the principal reference point for investors. The timing does not reflect any change in our long-term ambition. It will simply allow the revised medium-term guidance to be based on the fully updated business plan and the latest operating environment. In summary, the strength of first half performance and our financial position are the result of the strategy that we have executed consistently over many years to scale and diversify the business. We entered the second half with substantial earnings visibility from our development backlog, a growing recurring income platform and balance sheet capacity to pursue opportunities through the cycle. Our priorities remain unchanged, which are to calibrate launches carefully to demand, protect pricing and margin, progress on delivery of our residential backlog and develop the whole pipeline and deploy capital with discipline. With that, we conclude today's presentation, and welcome your questions, and thank you very much.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Taher Safieddine from JPMorgan.

Just maybe two questions from my side. Let me start with the guidance and in particular, on the sales. If I look at the revised FY '26 versus H1, as you said, you are talking about potentially growing from AED 12 billion in H1 to somewhere around AED 20 billion at the midpoint of the guidance into H2. So clearly, that brings us maybe back to a very solid precontract run rate. So the question here is how confident are you on delivering this guidance, especially that if I look at H1 and Abu Dhabi, the uptake has been relatively slow compared to one of your largest direct peer who has been maybe more aggressive on new launches. So maybe your thoughts on that? And do you need Marsa Al Saadiyat and Yas Point and Dubai all working so that you can deliver this guidance? That would be my first question. If you can maybe elaborate more, please, on that.

Sure. The answer is, we feel very confident. As we speak, we have customers downstairs lining up for The Canopies, which was the first launch of Yas Point. For reference, Yas Park Place, which we launched in April, was priced at around AED 27,000 per square meter. The Canopies is averaging about AED 31,000 per square meter. So not only are we ramping up. We continue our disciplined approach in terms of margin accretion and capitalizing on pent-up demand. And then to your point, yes, we're going to have a busier calendar in the second half. We already have a ready product in the cultural district that we have proactively decided to push to the second half, so that will be coming in the next few months. [ Far ahead ] is something that we have not launched this year, so we'll be coming up with a new launch also in the second half. Marsa Al Saadiyat is something that we've been working on for quite some time now. So we're also quite advanced on that master plan. And then finally, the Dubai master plan that we've been talking about, we have not only started working on when we announced the acquisition. We had taken the risk of starting the master plan works even before agreeing the deal with the Dubai holdings. So we actually feel extremely, extremely confident. And to the point you made about some of our other competitors obviously being more aggressive. We are taking a more balanced approach that we believe protects shareholder value, which is a balanced approach when it comes to payment plans and pricing and providing product that we believe is going to serve the demand that is out there in the market. So you need to look at things not only what is the price per square foot, but ticket sizes is also an important thing to look at. So again, to reaffirm, we feel quite confident about this guidance.

Okay, clear. Maybe just a follow-up question on the development. If I look at the property development and sales, revenues for Q2, the growth was up around 10% on the revenues. I mean, clearly, you've done amazingly well on the margins. So margins have actually expanded on that portfolio. But on the revenues, it just feels that the rate of growth has slowed down significantly versus where we were in Q1 and FY '25. I just want to understand what was the reason behind that? Is it slower execution? Maybe you've taken more cautious approach on construction progress? If you can just maybe shed some color on that? And along the same points, with the margins, if I look at the EBITDA margin for the property development and sales, which is the UAE business, we are sitting at around 38% in H1 '26 on a gross profit margin. So you're still committing to that guidance over the medium term, 37% to 39%. You don't see any downside risk to that?

So let's talk about the drivers for the PDS business. The most important driver is value of work done. And despite the supply disruptions that we have seen, we have actually been pretty much on market in terms of our internal targets, in terms of hitting our value of work done, where we have missed as we had anticipated to have significantly more land sales, which are significantly more margin accretive. But given the environment today, we have decided to defer those land sales so that we do not discount the prices that we were anticipating on them. Actually, quite the contrary, we believe with some of the recent announcements that we have done, we can actually achieve better prices on those land sales. The other thing is we've obviously seen slower inventory sales, and inventory sales are also -- are somewhat of a driver for revenue growth. So I think it's pretty much that. Value of work done was as expected, but the other 2 were a bit slower given the circumstances.

And margins-wise.

And then on the margin, sorry. Yes, we do feel very confident about our margins. I think the best example I gave is The Canopies. We continue to launch projects that have significantly high GP margins. Marsa Al Saadiyat is a premium to ultra-luxury offering. Those will typically have a significantly high GP margin. So we remain committed to the targets that we have provided in terms of our margin guidance.

Our next question is from Harsh Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

So I have two questions. The first one is the downward revision in 2026 EBITDA estimate at the group level is largely flowing through the Property Development segment. Hi, can you hear me? Hello?

Gabriel, are you still there?

Hello, can you hear me?

Your line is now open, Harsh.

Gabriel, we cannot hear anything.

Am I audible now? Hello? [Technical Difficulty]

So our question was from Harsh Mehta from Goldman Sachs.

I actually posted a question on the chat box where I thought probably it was some issue on my side. But so my question was, we've seen downward revision and EBITDA estimates for the group for 2026. And that's pretty much flowing from the downward revision that we have seen for the Property Development segment. And I was hoping to understand if you could provide some more color whether it's the UAE business that's driving that downward estimate revision or is it the international business? Because we've also seen very weak EBITDA contribution from international business in 1H. So any clarity around that would be very helpful to get an understanding between what's happening on the EBITDA level at UAE versus international operations.

Sure. It is predominantly the UAE development business. Now the revision, I would say, is not that significant. Again, if you look at the drivers, we do have net sales, which are, again, a somewhat driver for P&L recognition on the awarded projects through the backlog. Land sales, we don't know if we're going to close those sales this year or we're going to have to defer them to next year. And then the year is not over. You still have somewhat of supply challenges, which we have been proactively managing again, and we remain on track. So there's a little bit of cautiousness, I would say, on that front. But again, I mean, you're talking about something in the range of like AED 400 million, AED 600 million revision, which is not a lot of money.

Yes. And then just one follow-up. So similar to your earlier comment on your expectations of presales really rebounding in the second half. And you've kind of explained key drivers, what makes you bit confident about second half. I mean even when we look at the EBITDA guidance, again, the second half seems a decent acceleration versus 1H EBITDA that you've reported. And even on a year-on-year basis, when we look at the numbers, the growth rate looks much better compared to the weakness compared to the first half growth. So do you expect a much rapid rebound in terms of execution in second half that's going to drive that recovery in second half EBITDA?

I mean you have projects that are at different cycles of the S-curve. You had projects in the first half that we're starting to reach at the end point of the S-curve as we're starting to hand over. But then at the same time, we have awarded a number of projects this year where the contractors have mobilized on site. So we're going to start recognizing a decent amount on that front. And then again, I go to my other point is we have seen a decent pickup in terms of inventory sales as well, which is also going to help gap that difference. So yes, I'd say the second half generally, you should see a good uptick in activity.

Our next question is from Rahul Bajaj from Citi.

This is Rahul Bajaj from Citi. I have two questions mainly. Both are actually quite linked. So I'll go together. I mean I just wanted to focus on the international development business because that seems to have done sales and the international business seem to have done really well in the second quarter. Just trying to understand what are the drivers for this kind of sudden jump in sales in the international business, both in SODIC and London Square? And is the sale in the international business anyway linked to sentiments or what's happening in UAE and in the broader GCC region or that is completely separate and they're not really impacted? And so they pushed through even if there are maybe sentiment issues here locally? So just trying to understand what has driven international sales. And linked to it, since you provided kind of the updated guidance for full year sales, which points to roughly around AED 20 billion of sales for the second half of the year. Trying to understand, will international continue to be a large part of it kind of a run rate at which it was in the second quarter? Or it will be more domestic driven in the second half of the year?

On sentiment, I think you said is it related to the UAE sentiment, I think. The current situation is not a UAE specific thing, right? This is, for us, more of a global crisis that has affected the sentiment globally in general in terms of the disruption that has happened to energy supply and supply costs in general and shipping and global travel. So I don't want to make a point, but this is not a UAE crisis. This is a global crisis. The other thing is I would not read too much into what's happening in terms of the sales as something that is linked to the UAE. If you look at last year, SODIC, for example, had a very busy second half compared to the first half. They really caught up in terms of their sales. So I think it's just launch specific in terms of what they're offering in the market. And in general, the North Coast in Egypt tends to do extremely well. Like their sales, if you've noticed, have come from Ogami in June, and those developments and prices have continued to perform really well given how attractive that destination has become. London Square, I think, is a function of the investment that we have done over the past 2 years. We have a number of drivers that go into those sales. You have private sales and you have BTR, build-to-rent, which are sales to institutional investors, forward purchases to build the buildings on their behalf. So I think London Square is just in growth mode, and Egypt has generally launched specific driven. How much is international sales going to make up of the overall numbers? I don't want to give you a specific number today and commit to it, but I would say the majority of our numbers, the guidance is UAE led.

Our next question is from Steve Bramley from HSBC.

Well, firstly, well done, champs. Both to you, Faisal and Talal, for the profitability number actually, which I think is ultimately the most important mine.

They just let me say the good news, Steve. I don't do anything. I just carry on the team's success.

No. Well, that's a good outcome. So congratulations. Look, as everyone else is asking multiple questions. I've got three, though short. Q2 sales, I actually thought you might post bigger numbers in Q2, possibly from carryover from Q1. So I was a little bit disappointed this morning to see your Q2 sales numbers. But having said that, when we published last week, our full year numbers are in line with your guidance. In fact, they're right in the middle of it. So I'd just like a little bit of comfort on how you are supporting your full year guidance? That's question number one. Question number two, The Wilds this year, your sales rate is pretty low, no surprise, all things considered, but just how you're thinking about that? And then thirdly, you mentioned payment plans, Faisal, about being disciplined. Why are you being disciplined? I mean I was at one of your major competitors, actually, probably your major competitor in Dubai about a week ago looking at one of the sites, and I got a very favorable payment plan if I pushed. So what's the point in being disciplined?

On Q2 sales, see, whatever we put out has sold pretty well. So if you look at the first launch that came out was Yas Park Place. Year-to-date, I think we've sold about AED 1.4 billion, AED 1.5 billion, almost sold out. What's remaining is just large 3-bed units. And then in May, we put out Al Ghadeer that was completely sold out, AED 1.1 billion, which is why we launched Phase 2, I think, at the beginning of this month. And then in June, we launched The Orchids on Yas, that sold out in terms of what we put out. We still have a number of villa offerings, which we have not put to the market yet. Could Q2 have been better? Yes, I think if we put out more products, maybe it would have been better. But again, we took the decision that we wanted to play it a little bit more cautiously. The other thing is post the crisis in March onwards, we saw a significant dip in inventory sales. They were down in general, 70%, 80% compared to previous years on a weekly basis, but we've seen a significant recovery in that. I'd say today, they're somewhat around 20%, 30% down year-on-year. So still down, but having significantly recovered. And I think that will continue to improve going forward. And then I think I answered the point about the confidence for H2. We have a lot of product that is ready now on the shelf. It's just a matter of putting it out, and we feel very confident about putting it out, especially around the height we created on those destinations. Again, the example of The Canopies, there was a lot of excitement around that product being on the beach, having a nice promenade, being in very close proximity to Disney, like the market really, really got excited about it and we are being rewarded for it. My team are showing me life sales, which is looking good, and we'll announce it probably in the next couple of days. The Wilds, you are absolutely right, that is not doing well. We are keeping our eyes on it. Slower than expected because of the time when it was launched, it was the week of the crisis. Apartments in Dubai today are quite competitive even in that corridor. So yes, today, it's not moving as we expect, but the market will rebound, never bet against Dubai, the market will come back. So we are not worrying about it too much. Payment plans, why are we being disciplined? Well, because discipline is our key thoughts, and it has served us well over the past few years. Payment plans are a significant driver of your IRRs and being a shrewd, prudent investor that we think we are drive significant accretion for our diesel projects. We generate somewhere between 25% to 40% IRRs on our capital, if not more. And then we are being somewhat flexible on projects where we have sold more than 80%, we have actually gone to the market and said, you know what, special offer, we'll offer you 40-60 payment plans, for example. And we don't mind because the average on those projects then end up being significantly above that because if we sold 80% of our projects at 60%, 70% during construction, then we don't mind being a little bit more lenient on the remaining to just to keep inventory moving. And sorry, the last point I'd like to make is if you want to scale, and we are scaling, the less disciplined you are on your payment plan means a significant jump in your working capital. And the more working capital you have to put, the less you can launch going forward. So we need to be very efficient and prudent in the way that we use our capital, and capital has a cost of capital. So that's the way we think about it. And defaults, sorry. That's the other thing we think about. If you are more -- if you tell a customer can pay me 5% and then see you in 1 year when the next milestone comes, this is a recipe for speculation and defaults. Quality over quantity. I promise I'll stop now.

Our next question is from Charles Boissier from UBS.

So just one from my side. Going through your develop-to-sell, a few projects appear to have slipped a little bit 2028 versus 2027 or 2029 versus 2028 in terms of the delivery, not on [indiscernible]. But given your supportive message on demand, on construction progress, supply chain. I just was wondering if you could just provide some context on the revised completion time lines. I'm looking at various projects like [indiscernible] Mandarin Oriental on the develop-to-sell and then on the develop-to-hold as well there, like Saadiyat and the DIFC Tower. And then related to that, apologies also just to check within the development to hold, you had Grove Mall, which is now completed, which is 60% occupied. I'm mindful that it may not be officially open, even you mentioned Q4 opening. But just was wondering what you expect in terms of the ramp-up in occupancy there.