Alfa Laval AB (publ) (ALFA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 21, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Emma Adlerton
executiveSo good morning, everyone. Good to see you here, all of you at our Capital Markets Day. So I will kick off this day by talking about the net zero journey in our value chain. So let's start with looking at -- okay, first, I should say to you that when we look at the net zero journey, I have some good news for you. But you'll have to wait a little bit for that. So let's start with where we are and where we are heading. So the targets that we have set for us is to be net zero in our own operational emissions, which is the Scope 1 and Scope 2, as you know, by 2030. By the same year, we have a target to reduce the Scope 3 emissions in the value chain, which means the upstream and the downstream in the value chain. So by 2030, 50% reduction. Then we have a total net zero in the entire value chain by 2050. And yes, we know that there are some challenges to reduce carbon emissions. And we know that the transition is moving not so fast. At least it's slower than we would hope. But you cannot always have tailwind, right? Sometimes you have headwind. And that is a good time to show leadership and walk the talk and actually do the things that you can and not focus about the things that you cannot do. So we have been focusing on the things that we can control, take actions on and influence. One part of that is our own operational emissions. So we have worked systematically to put plans in place to understand what do we really need to do to reach net zero. And we have been dedicated and firm to the extent that we have actually realized that we can do it even faster. So what does that mean? Well, if we start to take a little bit of look at where we are to look at the sources of the carbon emissions in our operations. So this is the waterfall bridge you see here. So a big chunk of what we have is natural gas. We are using natural gas for heating, heating buildings, heating tap water, heating furnaces and so on. Then we have one part you see here, the blue 15%, which is purchased electricity. We already now have 95-plus percent renewable electricity at our sites. But the last part is actually contributing as you see quite much to the emissions that we have at our sites. Then we have a big part here, which is company cars. I don't know if you see it, it's 27%. It's the company cars. And that is also a bit of a challenge. But also here, we are committed to reach net zero. Okay. So easy, right? We have some boxes that we need to fix. Well, it doesn't look like that when you look at reality, right? So this is reality. These are the sites that we have around the world. We're actually quite a big landlord, if you look at it. So beside -- we have 3 sites, one in U.S., one in Italy, not this one, and one in China, which are the biggest emitters in our opeations. But then you see we have plenty of sites where we need to go to net zero. And it's spread around the world. So it's really not one solution, fix everything. It's different countries. It's different operations we have. As you know, we have so many different products. So how we run the factories are very different. So we need to find solution in each and every place. But there are a couple of things that we are doing across. One thing is maybe not unexpected that we are working with energy efficiency. We have always done that, of course. But since we have put the targets in place, you know what happens when you put targets, then you start to work on it. So we have focused even more on energy efficiency to reduce the need for energy in the first place. So that we have done across with a very, very good result. Then we have also applied solar panels. And you see here in quite many places. Not all of them are done yet. We have some places, Japan and Korea, where we are not done yet, but it will come. So we -- this is what we have in our plans. We estimate that this will be around investments around EUR 50 million. So we have the plans. We know what to do. We know what it will cost. We believe it's very important to walk the talk and to show others, not least our customers, that this is possible. So we have decided to move up the targets for net zero in Scope 1 and 2 from 2030, end of 2030 to end of 2027. Isn't that great news? I think it's absolutely fantastic. And I hope to -- when we are here in a couple of years, I will show you also exactly what we've done in every place. Okay. So -- but the good news doesn't stop here. Our work doesn't stop here. As you know, our operational emissions is one part of our value chain or value chains, I should probably say, because we are part of many value chains and that's a bit more complicated than for some other companies, but it's also a huge benefit because being in many value chains gives you an opportunity to influence and we know what's going on. So I would like to give you a few examples on what we are doing in the upstream and the downstream by looking at 2 of our products. Starting with this beautiful T21 heat exchanger, Thomas is very happy now, I think. This is used for HVAC, CleanTech applications, but also heavy industry processes. This is produced at the Lund site in Sweden. We run that site 100% by renewable electricity. We are reusing the excess heat from the plate pressing. That's not only reducing the need for energy. It's also reducing the OpEx. Some additional heating we are -- we need and that it comes from district heating and then we are applying solar panels. And what's fantastic with this specific site is that we are growing. As you know, we are growing. We are investing in Lund, growing the operations and at the same time, we are reaching net zero. But before we can produce anything, we need to source. And if you see at the very end there, I don't know hope you all see even in the back, it's sourcing, which is the upstream part in the scope 3. So for this T21, we have basically 2 main parts for this reason. So it's the frames and then you have the plates, and it's metals. And metal is the biggest contributor to carbon emissions in the value chain for heat exchangers. So the frames, we are now sourcing from SSAB on their 0, SSAB 0 steel, which means 100% recycled steel. That means that we reduce the carbon footprint in the heat exchanger by 39%. The plate, it's a little bit of a different quality. We are sourcing that from Outokumpu and that is also low carbon emission steel. Exactly how much is not possible to say because, as you know, the plates -- the number of plates depends on the application for the customer. We believe that it's very important to contribute to buying zero carbon metals because we also need to participate in closing the price gap versus the traditional. So this is in small scale now, but we are scaling up this. All right. So once we have sourced it, we transported to the Lund site and then we also transport it to the customer. So we're using electric trucks where possible, also that in a little bit of a small scale now, but we are scaling that up. We also have a system, which I think is very good. This is a little bit of a low-hanging fruit. We have a system where we are making sure that when we are supplying spare parts to customers, we don't do that by default by air freight, which is very easily done. Customer calls need spare parts. Yes, sometimes yes, but not all the time, which is, of course, reducing the emissions. So once this T21 comes at the customer side. It has a significantly lower carbon footprint. But it doesn't stop there because as you know, the fantastic thing with the heat exchanger is that it is increasing the efficiency at the customer. So that means that the demand for energy reduces and we are avoiding emissions. We are not taking that into our calculation of Scope 3. As you know, avoided emissions is not included. We are following the greenhouse gas protocol. But it's quite difficult to stand here and talk about the value chain for this product, which includes the customer and not mention the avoided emissions. And it's not possible to say exactly how much for product. But if you look at all the heat exchangers that we are selling for 1 year, that means a 50 gigawatt reduction in the need for energy. So 50 gigawatt less energy needed. That is some 10, 15 millions of tonnes carbon emissions, it's pretty significant numbers. If you add the service, we're doing on the heat exchangers, it doubles. But again, it's not in our scope calculations. And at the end of life of the heat Exchanger, which is, of course, very long from we have sold them, but we have many out there in the installed base. It's a possibility for the customer to recycle the heat changer. We have a cooperation, for example, with Stena. So that means that if the customer chooses to recycle it, it goes back in the loop into recycled steel. So that's part of closing the loop as well. So again, this -- we do what we can in this, and we are starting at a small scale. We are scaling up, but we cannot do everything. So the customer needs to be willing to do things as well and other companies. All right. So let's have a few minutes on another product. This is the Clara separator. Now [ Sameer ] is happy, right? Yes. This separator is used for fruit juice, wine applications and other brewery or other yes, brewery and stuff. So this is produced in Eskilstuna in Sweden, and that is also a site where we are very close to net zero. The heat exchanger, it's a different story because the main contributor to the carbon emissions is not the sourcing. It's the use phase at the customer. This is a machine, a product that is rotating. So it's using an electrical motor, but it needs power. And the source of that power is up to the customer because it's their plant, right? So we cannot do much about that. But what we can do something about is how much energy the separator needs. So we have been working on that. And our great R&D team in Tumba, they have made some great innovations to solve this. There are a few of them -- many of them, but 2 of them are -- one is the hermetic design, which means it's something about the fluids -- the dynamics of the fluids in the bowl. Another one is [ e motion ], and that is the air friction around the bowl. And these together, they can actually reduce the need for energy with 50-plus percent, again, of course, depending on the process the customer is running, which I think this is also quite good. Again, I mean we do what we can. If the customer then do what we do, meaning net zero in their own emissions, then the source for the heat exchanger would be renewables. And then well, we would have a net zero there as well. So it's all about working together here, and everybody needs to do their part. Okay. And then we have recycling here as well. We have cooperations with another company called Aperam. It's a global one that we are using and offering to the customers for recycling. So this is some illustrations of what we are working on in Scope 3, where we believe we can influence the most and make the biggest difference. And we are continuing on this. And I remind you that we now have -- besides working with our Scope 3, we are moving up the target from 2030 to 2027 with our own Scope 1 and 2 emissions. And we are very proud of this. We think it's very important to show leadership, and we really hope and believe that this will influence others to do the same.
Sammy Hulpiau
executiveOur presentation will be basically 2 parts. I will start with a quick introduction. And then we will zoom in, in one specific topic on the topic of biofuels and how food and water also contribute on the decarbonization of our society. So -- and that will be by an expert speaker. So I will introduce that person in a few minutes. So first of all, I took over the Food & Water division since September. And I'm not new to Food & Water. I have been part of the Food & Water management team for the last 8 years from the moment it was created in 2017. And I have been running the business unit High Speed Separators over the last 8 years as part of the Food & Water division. And the journey over those last 8 years has been quite exciting. I think the whole organization has been an exciting journey we have gone through. And I think also the results are quite exciting if you look at it. And as you can see, both on our order intake and on our EBITDA development, the numbers have basically more than doubled. If you look at order intake, when we started the division, we were a division of SEK 12.5 billion. Today, we are over SEK 25 billion. And it has been a fantastic development both on our capital sales, but also, as you can see on the dark blue on our Service business. The same goes for our profitability we were below SEK 2 billion EBITDA, SEK 1.8 million, and now we are close to the SEK 4 billion. And that is also a fantastic development, as you can see. If you look a little bit on the development over the last 5 years, the growth basically have accelerated over the last 5 years. Our organic growth last 5 years has been 7.5% and also this year, '24 LTM, we are pacing at 7.5% in organic growth. Of course, we have also had a quite substantial acquisition we made in August '22 with the acquisition of Desmet. That was a very big acquisition for Food & Water. And it is, for us, a fantastic new member in the family because it is a really very well-established company in both food, feed, but also biofuels. And that's -- we'll come back to that later. And the development has been very nice. The company has integrated very nicely in the group and has continued to perform very well. So we're very excited about that acquisition. If we then look a little bit about -- and I'm not going to go into the details, what is all the structural changes that are behind to enable this growth. There are many structural things that have been implemented over the years. But if I would highlight one specific element that has definitely helped us grow our business is our capability to innovate. In the Food & Water division, we have put a lot of time and effort in looking on our innovation processes, and we have managed to accelerate the pace of new innovations. Today, we are, I would say, in average, launching more than 20 new products every year across the different business units. And I think that's a powerful thing. And if you look at the pipeline that we are having, it's a pretty impressive pipeline also from innovation that will come into the market in the next couple of years. A lot of that now is also around sustainability, how we can help our customers to produce food, medicine and of course, clean water in a more sustainable way using less energy, using less water and, of course, still increase the yields in their production. So I feel if you look also to the future, I mean, we have had a fantastic growth so far, but I'm also quite convinced that, that will continue. And the reason for that is that basically, our market is us, people, you, me, everybody on this planet. And today, we are 8 billion people. And in 35 years from now, according to U.N statistics, we will be 10 billion, which is an increase of 25% on this planet. To compare it, it's 24x the population of Germany that will come on this planet, needing food, needing medicine and needing clean water. Also from a pharmaceutical perspective, we expect a very strong development because if you look at the population, it will not only grow with 25%, but the elderly population will be more than doubling in this period. So also the need for medicine is going to grow substantially. So basically, we could say we are operating in a market which is structurally growing for the next 3 decades, basically. That's a fun place to start working, right? So I will end here. We will not go further more in the details about the food. We're going to very specifically now zoom into the biofuels. And my next speaker here is Tim Kemper. Tim has been the Managing Director, the President of Desmet. He Is also now part of our Food & Water division, has more than 40 years of experience in the food industry, have been more than 25 years with Desmet and has a wealth of experience in -- specifically in the biofuels market. So Tim, please, could you share your insights about this market going forward?
Timothy Kemper
executiveThank you, Sammy. Welcome, everyone. Good morning. Great to see everyone. Now let's jump into the very interesting topic of biofuels. First of all, what is the opportunity for biofuels? Well, if we look at it, it's mostly the transportation sector, 27% of all the world's energy is used for transportation. And 90% of that comes from 3 liquid fossil fuels, diesel fuel, gasoline and jet fuel. And the numbers are somewhat staggering, 6.9 billion tonnes per year of diesel fuel. 4.1 billion tonnes per year of gasoline and jet fuel smaller, 0.3 billion tonnes per year. In total, around 11 billion tonnes per year of fossil fuel use within the transportation sector. So that's the opportunity. And even with those huge numbers, they keep growing. We see around a 2% increase in diesel fuel, a 1.5% increase in gasoline despite electrification of cars and a 2.5% increase in jet fuel. So it's a growing market, a big opportunity for renewable fuel. So what are the practical renewable fuels available at scale today? There are 4. The first is ethanol. Ethanol is basically a blend that you put into petroleum gasoline. It doesn't have the same thermal characteristics as gasoline. So it's used as a blend. Quite often, it will be about a 10% blend referred to as E10. Then we see biodiesel. Biodiesel doesn't have the same cold flow properties as diesel fuel. So in cold weather, it can only be blended in a small portion. In warmer weather, it can be blended in a larger portion. So we see practically 2% to 40% blend. If you have a 10% blend as an example, it's referred to in the industry as B10. Then we have hydro-treated vegetable oil, often abbreviated as HVO or sometimes called renewable diesel. HVO is a complete drop-in fuel. That means it has thermal and cold flow properties very similar to diesel fuel. And the great part of that is that you can use the same infrastructure, the same tanks, the same pipelines. So HVO is very popular with the petroleum industry. They can maintain the same infrastructure and switch to a renewable fuel. The fourth is sustainable aircraft fuel. And sustainable aircraft fuel is also a drop-in fuel. So you can basically directly displace jet fuel with sustainable aircraft fuel. And it can be used as well in all the same infrastructure. So the tanks at the airport, the pipelines to get the fuel to the airport, they can all still be used with SAF as they are today with jet fuel. Now if we look at where these biofuels come from, all from renewable sources. First of all, we start with ethanol. Ethanol comes from primarily corn, but not corn as a whole. Corn is divided into 3 parts: the starch, the protein and the oil. And only the starch portion is converted to biofuel. That's about 60% of all ethanol is made from corn. About 25% is made from sugarcane. And the balance of the 15% is made from other starchy crops. Then if we look at biodiesel, HVO and sustainable aircraft fuel, those are made from oils and fats. So the most common source is excess edible oils. And what do I mean by excess edible oils? Well, we grow oil seeds such as soybeans and rapeseed, not for the oil, we grow them to produce the protein. And in producing the protein required for the world, we have about 20% oil in excess. That excess oil is available for making biofuel. As well, we have animal fats. So basically, when we have meat scraps, they can be rendered into protein used in pet food and also having animal fat that can be converted to HVO. The same is true for used cooking oil. It used to be the used cooking oil, you cooked in it, you took it out and it was disposed, went to the landfill. Today, used cooking oil is being collected all over the world in order to convert it into HVO and SAF and distillers corn oil. So in that process of making ethanol, we have the starch, the protein and the oil. That oil can also be used to make HVO and also SAF. So these are the sources of which become the different biofuels. Now what's really important about biofuels is what are their real benefits? And there are 3 key benefits that I'll cover. The first of which is not so intuitive, enabling farmers to maximize protein production. How does that fit with biofuels? Well, first of all, about 20% of the world's population has malnutrition. They don't have the basics that they need, especially amino acids. Those amino acids come from protein, protein primarily from meat. So when we talk about meat, chicken, fish, pork, beef. In order to maximize the production of that so that we can help bridge this protein gap, we need to maximize the vegetable protein that's fed to those animals. That vegetable protein is primarily coming from soybeans, corn, rapeseed. In order to get farmers to grow more of that, they have to be profitable. So the role that biodiesel fills, biodiesel increases the value of the side products. So when you're producing corn, the starch portion has a higher value now, thanks to the ethanol industry. When you're producing soybeans or rapeseed, the oil portion has a higher value now, thanks to biodiesel and HVO. So these biofuels play a very important role in increasing the overall value of the crops. When the value of the crops is higher, that means the farmers are profitable. They can then use all the latest technologies. The best planting seed, adequate fertilizer and spend the CapEx needed for sophisticated planting and harvesting equipment. Just as an example, I grew up on a farm. And today, that same land is growing 2.5x more soybeans than it was when I was young. That just goes to show, if you put the technology into farming, how much more we can get from the same space. So this is the not so intuitive, but very important benefit of biofuels. The second is much more intuitive, clean air. So when we look at the different biofuels, ethanol is an oxygenator. So it helps gasoline burn cleaner. So we have up to 25% reduction in CO2 when we produce ethanol compared to when we're running with pure gasoline. Biodiesel and HVO reduce carbon monoxide by about 10% and particulate material. So the black soot that you see on buildings that come from running diesel, it's dropped down because of burning biodiesel. And then if we look at sustainable aircraft fuel, that is the one that has the biggest potential impact, up to a 50% total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Especially when aircraft take off from an airport, there's an immediate big fuel burn, a lot of pollution. And around airports, the air quality is not very good. So if we can move those jets over to sustainable aircraft fuel, we can dramatically reduce the amount of pollution around our major airports. So this is the second benefit of biofuels in that it brings cleaner air. The third benefit is circularity. So when we look at the different feedstocks, used cooking oil, as I mentioned, it used to be discarded. Today, used cooking oil is worth $1,000 per tonne, and it's being collected all over the world at a faster and faster pace. So we're recycling that used cooking oil. Animal fat, when you render -- so basically, when you have meat scraps at a production facility for meat, that can be captured, rendered, turned into animal fat and protein for pet food, that animal fat, again, now is recycled into biofuels. And lastly, the distillers corn oil. So we waste nothing in the ethanol making process. We make ethanol, we make protein for animals, and we make another type of biofuel using the distillers corn oil. So a complete recycling capability. So these are the 3 key reasons why biofuels are quite good, 3 nice benefits. Now with everything that is good, there comes an extra price. As Thomas mentioned, you have to pay a premium. What is that premium? Ethanol cost of production is about 1.5x what it costs for gasoline. When we look at biodiesel, it's about 2x what it is for gasoline. When we look at HVO, it's around 2.2x and sustainable aircraft fuel is around 2.5x the production cost of diesel fuel or jet fuel in that case. So we do have some cost challenges. Now you may ask why 2x more. Well, it's pretty simple because that used cooking oil, I mentioned that cost $1,000 per tonne to make those fuels compares to Brent crude that's about $500 per tonne. So when you look at the incoming cost, you basically are twice as high for those biofuels as you are for starting from fossil fuel. So how do we bridge this gap? Well, we have to have government intervention because you have to level the playing field across the country in order to make this work. And that government intervention comes in 3 types. The first is a blend mandate. This is very typical in biodiesel. So the government can say, it has to be 10% biodiesel mixed in with diesel fuel. When they do so, the petroleum companies are obliged to make that happen. They go out and they seek the supply of that biofuel that creates a market for creating the biofuel and then you end up with a market price. At the end of the day, the extra cost gets built into the price that the consumer pays. The second mechanism common in ethanol is a tax credit. So if you blend 10% ethanol into gasoline, you get a credit on the taxes owed, and it's typically the petroleum company gets to claim that as a tax credit. In that way, they keep the ethanol price to the consumer, similar to that of the gasoline. However, the government loses out on some of its income. And then the third type of government incentive is a subsidy. In that case, the government literally pays the producer or the blender the cost difference to make it viable. So these are the 3 government interventions that are occurring today in the space. Now I must say we've had some very positive tailwinds in 2024 in the biofuels area. First of all, in Indonesia, the government passed a law to increase the blend mandate from 35% up to 40% for biodiesel. In Brazil, we had an increase in the blend rate of biodiesel from 12% to 13% this year, but they've got a scale that goes up to 30% in 2030. In the U.S., there's actually a bipartisan bill that's been put forth to extend the HVO tax credit until 2034. That's very important because if a petroleum company is going to invest $0.5 billion in a plant, they need to know there's a runway of time where they can secure that credit. And also India, India has another scheme where they basically give licenses to companies to make ethanol and to make biodiesel, and they've really ramped up those licenses. So we see very positive support coming from various governments. Now how much of the decarbonization journey have we accomplished so far? Well, what we see is in ethanol, we have now displaced 3.5% of the global gasoline consumption. With respect to biodiesel and HVO, 1% and SAF 0.1%. Now I will say ethanol has been around for 25 years, whereas biodiesel, HVO is more 15 years and then SAF is something quite recent. But there is no silver bullet that renewable fuel coming from these sources is going to completely displace. But it's one important tool in the toolbox of getting there and eventually having a reduction in the fossil fuels. If we look at the growth of biofuels, we see different segments having different growth. So ethanol is a reasonably good-sized industry at 145 million tonnes, 2.7% growth rate. What does that mean? An extra 3.3 million tonnes of production capacity is going in every year. If we look at traditional biodiesel, it's a market of around 43 million tonnes with a 2.3% growth rate, which means there's an additional 1 million tonnes of production going into place every year. When looking at HVO, that one is growing quite fast at 9.2%. It's up to a 20 million tonne market, and it's growing around 1.8 million tonnes per year. Sustainable aircraft fuel is the newest. It's only a 0.4 million tonne market with almost a 36% growth rate, which is an additional 0.1 million tonnes per year. But when we add this all together, there's around 6 million tonnes of extra capacity that's going in year-over-year in the biofuel area. So it's an important growing market for us to go out and capture. So what role do we play in biofuels? If we look at ethanol, we've got heat exchangers used throughout the process. When we look at ethanol, we also have the decanters and the High Speed Separators that separate the oil from the syrup in order to capture that oil from the corn. When we look at biodiesel, we have an A-Z scope. First of all, oil seed production facilities. So we can start out with soybeans and rapeseed, for example. We have all the processes to remove the oil. We have the complete biodiesel production facility from the starting of crude oil up until biodiesel. We make High Speed Separators that are used in the separation and cleaning of the feedstock as well as the purification of the biodiesel itself and heat exchangers used throughout the process. When we look at HVO and SAF, we also have a quite complete array of products available there. We have some partial animal byproduct rendering capability. We have full oilseed production capability in order to create the feedstock. We make complete feedstock pretreatment systems. These feedstock retreatment systems are not located where the oil seed is processed, they're located at the petroleum companies. We also have heat exchangers used throughout this process and as well effluent water evaporation systems used to reduce the total effluent water from those facilities. So a complete array of products for the biodiesel industry. So to wrap this up a little bit. There's a few key messages that I'd like you to think about when leaving today. First of all, there are 3 very important benefits of biofuel. Maximizing the world's protein. That's very, very important. The second is cleaner air. And the third, enabling circularity. So these are the 3 real benefits of biofuel. We are not using any of the protein in corn, in soybeans and rapeseed to make biofuel. That protein needed to meet the world's hunger is retained. So we're using the byproducts of the industry to make biofuel. And then secondly, it's a nice growing market. 6 million tonnes per year of additional capacity is going in year-over-year, and we have the opportunity to capture that with a terrific array of technologies. So Alfa Laval is well equipped to address this biofuel industry.
Thomas Moller
executiveGood morning to you all. It's a big pleasure to have you here in San Bonifacio, one of the very important energy division sites, and I can't wait until you get out in the machine room and experience what has been developed here over the last few years. What we will do now is to make a deep dive on the Energy division, really go into the energy transition. So more looking at where are we now and how do we see the future? What is the pace? What are the opportunities? What are the challenges? And always link this to what role Alfa Laval potentially can play in this and what we're already doing. But before jumping into that, let's just have a quick look at the financial performance since the Energy division was started. So if you look on the left side, that's where we have the top line illustrated. So in 2017, we were just above SEK 10 billion division. Then there was a growth for a couple of years and then corona or COVID brought us back to more or less the starting point in 2017. But then since then, we have had a very strong growth in the last 3 years. And that growth comes really from all of our 5 industry segments. Some more than others, CleanTech, light industries like semiconductors and data centers has definitely driven this with the highest percentages. But even HVAC over a 3-year period, even though with the drop we have seen recently, still over the period, there has been growth also in the HVAC sector. Then of course, there has also been, especially in '22, inflation, which has driven up prices, which has also made some contribution here. But now you see we have more or less doubled up. We are SEK 20 billion division now. And then if we look at last 12 months, then you can say the growth journey has taken a bit of a pause. We have a slight decline. And that is naturally linked to the heat pump collapse in Europe that we all are so familiar with. But despite this heavy drop, we are actually quite pleased to see that we are almost on the same level as the peak in 2023. And this is due to mainly 3 reasons. So we have the data center boom kicking in. And despite all the bad news we can read about our CleanTech business is doing very well. And then we have had a solid service growth as well. And the service growth is the dark blue you have at the bottom, and it's actually now on an LTM basis, our service share is 28%, where just a few years ago, we had 26%. So the service has grown even faster than capital sales, which is, of course, very good to see from a customer experience perspective and a sustainability perspective. If we then move to the right side and look at the bottom line. This growth has lifted the profitability. So you see we had the first 4, 5 years since the division was created, we were more in the 15%, 16% return on sales level. That has now been lifted to, say, 18% plus return on sales. So the drop-through is coming through. Then again, we have a drop in last 12 months compared to '23 and again, of course, with the heat pump, we have underutilization in some manufacturing units. But I must say the Brazed business unit has done a fantastic job in keeping the profitability despite the collapse of the heat pump business. So sustaining this new level in a, I could say, a difficult year, we are pleased to see that. Okay. That was the financials. Now jumping into the energy transition. And I think we can all have -- we all have our view on the energy transition, and there are probably as many opinions in this room as there are people. So how fast is this going? What will happen in the next 3 years? What will happen over a 10-year period. There are so many scenarios flying around. I think what we all can say is that the rates -- or the speed we need, the pace we need to reach net 0 in 2050. We are behind that pace. But it's not like nothing is happening. And then I think there are 2 things everybody seems to agree upon. One is that the energy demand is rising. That is from a global perspective, is from a regional perspective, and it's from a national perspective. The energy demand is going up with population growth, living standpoints and the digitalization. Then another thing is the phasing out of coal. This was the COP28 pledge that everybody signed up to and there is a lot of activities in making this happen. And of course, India, China, Southeast Asia is majority of the coal. And if we look at coal, that is 26% of the energy production today. If we look at electricity production, it's more than 1/3. So of course, phasing out coal brings a lot of dynamics into the energy market. So that is the 2 things that I believe most can agree upon. And then if we take one step deeper, how to handle this situation. Then the energy demand going up, we can solve in 3 ways. And that's the 3 1st pillars you have. We can reduce the energy demand by working on our energy efficiency. 50% or more of the energy produced is never being used. So that's really the first fuel. And that's also where we have the COP28 pledge, where we need to go from a 2% energy efficiency worldwide to 4% by 2030. Then that will dampen the demand, but still, it cannot cover up for all the energy demand that we need. So a way to create more energy can be done by fossil-free power generation. That's where we have wind, solar, hydro, but also nuclear is a fossil-free power generation. So that can take some part of it. And then phasing out coal, it will be more than difficult to compensate the energy demand and phasing out of coal without having other fossil fuels kicking in. And here, we have a lower carbon fossil fuel, which is gas. So if you take the IEA Bloomberg outlook, gas is going to be a very important stepping stone in the phasing out of coal. And if we replace all coal with gas, we still will reduce the global energy emissions with up to 20%. So it is, of course, also helping in the decarbonization. Then there are other areas that we cannot electrify, where we need a clean molecule, and that is hydrogen for the hard-to-abate sector. And there are also sectors where we cannot decarbonize, we need to defossilize and I'll come back on this. Exactly how this plays out is -- there's tons of opinions on, but these 5 will all play a role. That's what we believe. And how does this look well for well then? Well, for energy efficiency, and that's indicated by the process we have at the bottom. For energy efficiency, that is 80% of what we do today. That is our core, and this is where we can contribute a lot. Then on the fossil-free power generation, that's where we don't directly have a lot in the solar PV, on the wind or on the hydro side. But when the renewable goes up, we need to have energy storage, and that calls for a lot of thermal applications. And there, we are very active. And we, of course, have a very strong historical position in the nuclear business. Then when it comes into gas, that has a lower potential, I would say, compared to the other ones. But still, we are in drilling, we are in transportation of gas. We are on the usage of gas. And we are definitely having more business in gas than in coal. So the shift from coal to gas will also have a positive impact for us. Then hydrogen and defecation, for example, at the chemical industries with green chemicals, bioplastics, that's where it can really be a game changer for the division, but we also know these are the most tricky things to get going over time. So exactly how this plays out, it's difficult to say, but we have a role to play in all 5 of them. And this means that we have, from an energy division perspective, a growth journey ahead of us. So let's jump into some of these examples in some of these areas and our role. So data centers. This is one reason for why the energy demand is going up. You see the data centers has gone from a 30 gigawatt power consumption to now 80 gigawatt. And the projection is that it will further more than double until 2030. So the data centers are really energy centers. And if we look at this outlook, there are 2 main drivers. So we have the traditional data centers, which is the dark blue. This is more people coming online, continuously, more streaming services, et cetera. That is driving more data center demands. But the big jump is the AI. So where you see in 2020, 10% of the energy for data centers went into AI applications, now soon it will be 30%. And end of this decade, it will probably be more like 50-50. And that is change in this industry. Because for conventional data centers, you can remove the heat by air. But in AI duties, they are much more energy-intense, you need to remove much more heat per area and then you need to go into liquid cooling. And that is illustrated what you have on the double down right corner here, where you have servers in a rack and each rack then have direct-to-chip cooling. You can also have these racks in submerged, but direct-to-chip seems to be the front-running technology at the moment. And then you have, for each of these rack, a cooling distribution units. And what makes that so beautiful is that there is a brazed heat exchanger in every single of these cooling distribution units. So if there are 500 server racks in a data center, there will be 500 brazed units. So that's a new application area for us. And that's the main reason for why our data center business has more or less doubled in the last 6 months. And if we take an example, let's take a 100-megawatt data center. So focus on the upper right here. 100 megawatts, which is a large data centers, but it's not what we call a mega data center, but it's a significant one. Then compared to previously, those 100-megawatt now has to be moved, not by air, but liquid, and that's why we need and all these 100 megawatts are turned into heat. So we need to remove 100 megawatts in heat. So that's a new potential for us. Then that heat has to be moved out of the building and into another liquid loop, which is then another heat exchanger duty. And then what all these data centers are so being pushed on and also have ambitions on is that all that heat should not go up in the year. We have to reuse that heat. That is low-grade heat and it has to be boosted. And this is where industrial heat pump can be of help. That's our third opportunity. And then when it has hit the right temperature for the off-taker of the waste heat, then you have the fourth heat transfer duty. So on a 100-megawatt data center, we have a 400 -- or let's say, 350-megawatt heat exchange or heat transfer opportunity. So with this outlook, this is, of course, a very exciting area for us for a number of our heat exchangers, gas kits and brazed specifically. So speaking about energy efficiency. This is where we need to go from the 2% to 4%. It's not going in the right direction. This year, we will be only 1%, most likely. So we need to create more awareness around the energy efficiency. And this is where we have all the technologies ready. So we have created the Energy Efficiency Movement, which was launched as an association in the spring this year, together with ABB. And we have now more than 500 companies part of this movement. More than 40 countries, more than 20 industry verticals. And this is creating a very strong one industrial voice on the importance of energy efficiency and also how to do it and lifting the whole awareness but also educational level around energy efficiency. And the position of the movement has actually gone so fast that IEA have now asked the movement to host the 10th IEA Energy Conference in Brussels next year and hosting that together with the European Commission. So I think this is one way of lifting the thought leadership around energy efficiency and bringing industries together with other associations, together with policymakers and getting things into action mode. Then another area we work on in the energy efficiency is energy hunters. Our sales force is becoming an energy hunter organization, and they can help customers making business cases. And the obvious ones are where you can reuse the heat on the same site and a lot of things are happening there. The more difficult thing is when we need to do sector coupling. So one company producing waste heat but can't use it all themselves. And another one can take it, but there is a distance between these 2. So then we need to get the sector coupling going, and that's much more tricky. But we have good examples of this. One example is in Milano here in Italy, where we have Eni gas-fired power plants. They have waste heat. We have one data center. They have waste seats. Our sales force, our salespeople here in Italy, then bring Eni together with the data center people, together with the utility company, and then miracles happened. And now we have 16,000 homes in -- apartments in Milano, being heated via waste heat instead of fossil fuel energy. Now 3 data centers are more coming up, and these are really big data centers. And guess what, we are, of course, doing the same. Then it will be 500,000 apartments. So energy efficiency really is crucial in this energy transition. And here, we believe we have a major role to play. Continuing a bit on energy efficiency, heat pumps. And why is heat pumps also energy efficiency? Well, it's 3x more efficient at least than the alternative of gas and oil boilers. Here, you have from the European Heat Pump Association, the development over the last 10 years. And heat pumps is covering different technologies. And it's important when reading these graphs to understand where is Alfa Laval relevant. And we are relevant in the air through water, that is the blue that you have at the bottom, and then we have the Ground Source. So those are the 2 technology areas where we play a role. There, you can see that there has been a steady growth over the years. Then in 2020, 2021, things start to move even faster. That is the European Green Deal decarbonization, electrification of heating in homes as decarbonization tool in Europe kicking in, subsidies in place. And then with the Russia innovation of Ukraine, there is absolutely boom in the market because then it's also from an energy security. We don't want to be dependent on Russia gas anymore. How can we do, gas prices also going through the roof. So '22 was a mega jump. And then you see in 2023, and this is a number of installed heat pumps, then there's actually a decline. And that is because subsidies suddenly started to be lowered or put on hold in a number of countries, but it's also linked to gas prices coming down and also gas being subsidized in Europe. And there is a clear link between the penetration of heat pumps in the market and the gas electricity price ratio. So if it's below 3, then you have a case where the -- actually the monthly cost will be lower. If it's above 3, you need to do a high CapEx investment as a household, but you'll also have a higher monthly bill to pay. So when electricity prices are high, then in like U.K., Germany, the penetration is low and other areas, Finland, Sweden, Norway, much higher penetration per 1,000 households when the ratio is in favor of the heat pumps. Then this doesn't illustrate how our business has been. So 2023 was an absolute record year for us, much higher than 2022. And that is because the whole stock building in the whole supply chain happens. So despite the installations going down, there was still full power on component supply, building heat pumps, putting heat pumps out to the installers, et cetera. So there was continuous overheating of the market despite the numbers going down. So what is happening then in 2024. There are no official numbers yet, but we are well below 1 million heat pumps being installed in Europe. But there is also a stock build up from 2023, which means that we have absolutely rock-bottom numbers on heat pumps this year. And that's a mega change, and that's why I say that the business unit being able to handle and still protect profit in such a situation is great to see. So will '25 be as '24? No, because now the stock starts to be normalized, not yet, but we believe in the spring. Maybe early '25, 1 or 2 companies will start to move again. Other companies will be more April, May and the last one is probably around summer. So even though there are no heat pump growth, our business will come back to some level of business at least. We still believe in heat pumps going forward. It will take longer time. But the electrification of heating in Europe is fundamental and will happen over time. And especially now when also new builds are coming back will also help the heat pump business. Okay. That was the energy efficiency part and a couple of the industry verticals where we are playing an important role. Then we have talked about the energy demand going up, and we need to produce more energy. And fossil-free power generation is one way of doing this. That means a lot of intermittence. So we need to have baseloads -- baseload of power. That can be generated by energy storage, which we are very active in. So renewables, together with energy storage is a nice cocktail. Another really nice couple is the renewables together with nuclear. So nuclear is giving the base load that the renewables can't. So combining them gives a very good system. What you have here on the graph is yearly, either retirement or capacity additions of nuclear reactors, but clustered in a 10-years period. So what you can see is now that there is a absolutely shift for the nuclear for the next 3 decades compared to the previous 3 decades. Actually, the estimates are that 200 to 300 additional gigawatts of nuclear will kick in. And to give you some indication, 1 gigawatt is roughly EUR 3 million to EUR 5 million, EUR 6 million depending on the scope opportunity for Alfa Laval, and then you can do your math. Of course, it's over 25 years. So it's not exploring our numbers in the next 2 years. But it's a very solid business for us where we have a very strong position, very good technologies. What then is also happening is that nuclear is coming into small modular reactors. And this is where it's more instead of 1 gigawatt reactors to come into smaller plans, 300, 400 megawatts, which is off-grid solution, which can be perfect match with the data center needs, where they are really struggling to get the grid support or the grid development going fast enough. And our opportunity here is great because in the small modular reactors, where we have utility heat exchanges on the conventional side, we have an opportunity to go inside the reactor having heat exchangers inside the reactor to do the steam generation. And then you can multiply the previous potential I've set with at least a factor of 10 for us. The small modular reactors is still emerging technology. So SMR, there will be demonstration plans coming and so on, but to really have them reliable, robust, the right generation of it, we are more talking about 2032, 2035 before this will be a serious business. But it's still an area where we are early involved and we'll be making a big difference in making this system reliable and ready to scale. Now we have talked a lot about the energy efficiency, the energy demand, then we come into the hard-to-abate sectors. This is where we need to get the cost down. Of course, things are too or very expensive, first time you do it. And there will be a very high price to pay for the output of the first plants. But we need the first plants in order to bend the cost curve. We need the flagships to demonstrate new technologies to get the efficiency going, the learning curve and then deploy, standardize and scale. And then costs will come down to an acceptable premium because there will be a premium to pay. Because it's more expensive to produce in a sustainable way than where it just can pollute everything. But it has to be an acceptable premium. So if you take hydrogen a sample, A year ago, people said we are probably $5, $6 per kilogram hydrogen. In reality, I think most can say we are probably $6, $8 when we start to see the bigger plans being in operations and that has to come down. So really have hydrogen scaling is probably below $3 per kilogram. But we can only get that going when we get the flagships going. And this is where we need to have the entire value chain working together to take the pain in the beginning. First move of collisions but also have banks kicking in, governments to share the risk or give bank guarantees for the important flagships. And as Emma mentioned, our engagement in, for example, fossil-free steel, where we pay very high price but we also find customers that are part of the value chain that want to contribute where we all take some pain, and then we actually get things moving. So if we move into hydrogen. All -- there's so much fair talking about hydrogen. We can all read the articles of this is not happening, this is not happening, but hydrogen will be needed. And the pace is not what the pace was expected to be just a year ago, but things are still happening. So you see from 23% to 24%, there is a tripling of hydrogen production. And when I say hydrogen here, it's really green hydrogen. So it's electrolyzer produced hydrogen, where you split the water molecule by electricity. And then if you look at the announcements, there are more announced projects last 12 months then has been taken out. So there is still a growth in the announcements. The problem is that they don't get the FID quick enough. So there is a difficulty in getting the cost curve down because we don't get enough flagships moving. And that is mainly due to 2 things: it's the hydrogen infrastructure; and it's the cost of hydrogen. The infrastructure will take time. So what we believe in is that the hydrogen will happen with point-source production. So you produce hydrogen, where you use it. That is fossil-free steel. It's e-fuels, et cetera. There are no infrastructure challenges. There, you just have to work with the very high premium to start with. But those things are moving forward. So it's not all dark here. And we believe in the hydrogen in the long term. And this is where we created the new business unit. And if I was convinced about our role in that a year ago, I'm even more convinced about our role to get that cost curve down based on what we have seen during this year with a partner dialogues. So if we go into hydrogen production, the picture you have on the left side, this is alkaline module, 20 megawatts. In the heart of this, you have our new heat exchange range, the T range from business unit GPHE and that's because the electrolysis and exothermic reaction. So the energy efficiency of the system is super critical in order to get the cost down. And this is where we play an important role. This module here on the left side goes to Neom, the big 2 gigawatt project in Saudi and hundreds of those modules are delivered that -- or skids are delivered to that plant. Then on the right side, we can do the balance of the module. And with there, we need new heat exchanger technologies, but we can also come inside the stack where we can contribute a lot with our thermal know-how, fluid dynamics, how to mass produce and really make the signs that can be industrialized. And this is where we have created the new business units. I'll not go more into it now. It will be one of the stations where you can actually touch and feel some new exciting high tech. So we leave it hanging still there. Then another important stepping stone. Natural gas is one. Another one is carbon capture. So there will be things still the fossil production. You have cement plans et cetera, where carbon capture is the short-term solutions. And this is an area where things are actually happening in certain regions. And it's happening in regions where there is a storage opportunity. So if you look at 3 examples here on the left side, we have Habshan in Abu Dhabi. We are very pleased to be part of that flagship, 1.5 million tonne CO2. This is where you have an Amine process or a solvent to take out CO2 from waste gases. And roughly, we have, say, a handful of million euro for each million tonne CO2 captured. That is our business in the larger scale. Then on the direct air capture, so that is where you just take the air around you and you take the PPMs of CO2 out and you concentrate it and then you store it. Those processes start to be relevant where you have free heat available. And 2 examples, 2 flagships moving. One is Iceland in construction mode, the same in Texas, and we are part of both of those 2 flagships, securing energy efficiency from day 1 and also being part of getting the cost down over time by working very close in these designs. Then I have talked about the defossilization. What is defossilization? Well, that is when you need -- you cannot electrify and you cannot use the hydrogen atom. When is that? That is when you have polymers. Polymers have a lot of carbon atoms, and that has to come from somewhere else, then fossil carbons. This is where we can, for example, use organic waste. So chemical plants, plastic production will have another source in the future and a completely different process. And this is also where we play an important role. All the examples so far I've given is on heat transfer. This is actually where separation, high-speed separators is in the middle of this process to make -- giving the right performance, the right yield and also being part of bringing renewable plastics down to a reasonable level. Here, we don't have -- I would say, there is more demand activation here. Consumers are more focused on this, and we have some big plastic offtakers that have strong ambitions on having bioplastics and decarbonize their sourcing. So here, we have a number of demonstration plans ongoing, and I think we will see the first couple of full-scale plants already next year. And then we get that cost curve down because we get the first flagships going. So now I've talked about a number of the transition areas, application areas, but this is also driving demand for a lot of new minerals. Just the hydrogen in the electrolyzer, you need a lot of rare earth minerals. When we electrify things, we need so much more copper than we have ever used before. And this picture is lithium. So with the explosion of batteries, both for EVs, for energy storage, we need so much more lithium. And here, in the lithium processing, our decanters is in the lithium processing step. You can do the extraction of lithium in several ways, but one of them use separation technology. And of course, also when you have the tail -- the mine tailings, you need to take care of that. And also there, you need separation technologies. So it's really in the whole energy transition plus the new feedstocks where we can and are playing quite an important role in the early days to get flagships going so that when things really start to scale, we are ready. So now I've talked about a lot of business development activities. But there are some other areas where we believe is crucial in order to take the thought leadership and the clear market leadership position in the energy transition. One of those is manufacturing capacity and capabilities, and Tom will cover this more in his presentation. Then we have 2 other areas. When we sell equipment, it's a 30-year service commitment. And the other one is innovation. More than half of the technologies needed in the energy transition still doesn't exist. So those are 2 key areas that we also need to handle in order to be successful during the coming years. And if we start with service, this is where we have brought service to a new level. We have now had double-digit growth in the last 3 years, and it's not just coming for free. This is a lot of pulling up sleeves, making the groundwork and getting a lot of basics in place. What you see here on the map is our service centers around the world. And the red dots is where we have made bigger investments during the last 3 years. And those can either be greenfield plants or expansions of current capacities. So our service center capabilities has been lifted to a new level, and this journey will continue. Then we have also traditionally a strong field service organization, but it has been mainly a strong field service organization for separation technologies. What we have done now is we have built up much more field service technicians and resources on servicing heat exchangers on site. And that is where we have tripled the number of field service engineers already now. So this gives us much more a broader service offering. We can do more on site, which is also growing our service center activities, so we get a much more complete chain on this. Then we are also expanding our parts capabilities. So we are investing in parts distribution centers. The picture here is from the 20,000 square meter building we have in Lund, specifically for the heat exchanger spare parts, but there are other distribution centers around the world that we are planning, and that is ongoing. So a lot of investments going into service centers and field service and also our sales force on service that lays the foundation for continuing the service journey we have had the last couple of years. Then another important one is innovation. In the Energy division, we have made the strategy that we want to double up on our innovation capabilities. So -- and we have already taken the first step this year with the new BU, but also having bigger R&D budgets in each business unit. And here are some examples of innovations that we are bringing to the market. We have a new heat pump range for the -- replacing the high global warming potential refrigerants with propane or CO2. That will be one of the stations you will also have today. So more touch and feel on that. In the middle, we have a semi-welded heat exchanger, much bigger unit, bringing up the capacity. This was launched last week in the China International Import Expo and got really high attention. So it was brought on the main stage as a big news, and that is driving industrial heat pumps. It's driving energy storage and is fit for the hydrogen. And then we are coming also with a new gas heat exchanger range. So a lot of the new energy transition is also asymmetric applications where you need different designs. And this is where we are coming with a new range, big units that are also addressing the big industrial heat pumps, also energy storage, but also gas compression interstage coolers. So this is 3 examples of innovations, but there is a lot of things boiling that we will talk more about in coming years. So that brings this to an end. So we have 4 pillars that we are very focused on: innovation, doubling up our activity level; continue building on our market reach. We have a very strong position, but more on that. Service we have talked about and the whole CleanTech business development activity level. And what goes across this is scalability and building up the whole manufacturing footprint.
Sameer Kalra
executiveThe year 2024, seen from a Marine divisional standpoint is about exceptional volumes and a step change in our profitability. And my team said, please smile when you say that. We are really not good at celebrating the really good years in the really -- and being too sad about the really weak years when you're in a business like the Marine division, which is a long-cycle business. They will come. It's a part of their business. You just need to make sure you do the right things year after year, and the results will come in the end indeed My presentation today will cover 3 areas. I'll talk a little bit around the financials development we've had to date. This is the foundation we are going to build upon I'm going to talk a little bit around the market conditions in the maritime. We are a single vertical player, 1.5, a little bit with the offshore. These are the boundary conditions we work with. And last but not the least, I'm going to talk about the work we are doing around the energy transition. It is by far the opportunity that we have in our business. And with that, let's get straight to the financial development. If you look at our order intake in the new structure in the group since 2017, our development has been not too bad when you look at this graph here. And even if you discount the exceptional volume we have seen from Framo capital sales in 2024. And you especially taking into account that in the period 2018 to 2022 was characterized by a lot of volume coming from scrubbers and ballast water, that is not there anymore. So when you put it all together, the autos have developed rather well. And again, if you see how do you break it down, the M&A part, the inorganic development is just about $1 billion, $1.5 billion plus. All of the rest is organic growth. In the last 5 years, our service business has grown at a CAGR of double digits. Our offshore business has grown with a CAGR of double digits. Our energy transition portfolio, and I'm going to talk about it a bit later, starts to get meaningful volumes. But the most important thing seen from my standpoint is that in all the product verticals in capital sales, we have held or improved our market position in almost all product verticals. And this is actually hard work on the ground. Thomas, you mentioned the same. It's a lot of hard work on the ground every day doing the right things. If I look at our profitability, we've had a period of declining profitability when the market has been rather weak. You can see that a little bit later on the markets. And it has recovered now to a more normalized level as our market has normalized. And if you look a little bit deeper inside, of course, we have a better invoicing mix. We have a greater share of Framo in our delivery at this point in time. Our service business has grown significantly larger. This is a profitable part of our business. Our factories are better loaded. We are getting a lot of good drop-through coming from there. And if I look at our offshore business today, it is now accretive to the division profitability rather than being dilutive as it was 5 years ago. So a number of things have happened to make the lines look as they do today. Effectively, we get a really good drop-through from our sales into the bottom line at this point in time. If I -- the one thing that we normally don't talk about so much even in the quarterly calls that Tom, you are having inside -- on a quarterly basis is the fact that we have done a lot of work around pricing in the high inflation period. We have done a lot of work around costs inside the division, footprint, product, all of that on the S&A side in the period when we were in a low cycle. And a lot of the numbers that you see start to shine is simply because all the hard work we have done on price, on cost in the long periods when the markets were really rather weak actually and against us. And that is the reason why you see the numbers as they look today. This is what we've achieved so far. And I think if we just take a step forward and say what lies ahead of us. The shipbuilding market accounts for about 50% of our volume in the Marine division. And if I look at the market, the conditions are fairly supportive looking forward, and this is based on 2 reasons: number one, the supply-demand fundamentals in the market; and number two, unit economics of a new vessel versus a vessel that was 20 years old. In the period 2003 to 2008, there were about 20,000 ships contracted. To give you a sense, typically, depending on how you slice and dice and count, the marine market on a fleet basis is about 40,000 to 50,000 ships. So half -- close to half the complete fleet was ordered in a period of 6 years. This fleet is going to come up for renewal. Typically, the lifetime of a vessel economic life is between 20 to 25 years, and we have a massive replacement cycle standing up ahead. Compounding this effect is that a modern vessel today is 30% to 50% more efficient than a vessel that was built 20 years ago. And the reason I'm trying to flag is the supply side story in the Marine division is extremely strong going forward. And we know for sure, the future will absolutely not look like this, but it's going to be fairly close. This is a really good -- the best proxy we can make, assuming that sentiment will drive a little bit more volatility than you see here. But on a longer-term basis, this is the best view that we have. And we feel good about this from a supply side. The seen from an Alfa Laval standpoint, mix is as important as the number of ships being contracted. We like tankers more than other ships. The opportunity per shipset for us is bigger for a tanker relative to other vessels. From -- One is applicable only on product and chemical tankers, so we like tankers a little bit more. And we have had an exceptional tanker mix in 2024 that we don't expect it to be repeated. But if you look at the light blue bars below, the mix going forward is also fairly favorable for us. If you look at our service market, 30% of our volume comes from service. Our service volume is a function of our installed base for the most, which is, in turn, a function of the world merchant fleet. And if you can see on the graph on the top left, the world merchant fleet size is expected to grow moderately. There's not massive growth coming there. However, if you see the growth in the multi-fuel fleet, this is growing at a tremendous pace. Multi-fuel vessels are more complex. They require more service, and we have a better market position on these vessels relative to plain vanilla fossil fuel vessels. What is not included in the picture is there is also going to be a massive demand for retrofitting multi-fuel solutions on the existing fleet when market-based measures come into play. If you look at the world fleet, it's aging over time. Older vessels require more maintenance. And if you just look outside the maritime market, if you look at the offshore business, our offshore installed base has also been growing in the last 5 years. And the reason I flagged the offshore installed base is our offshore installed base is high-value installed base. You're looking at numbers 5x, 10x, 20x depending on the kind of equipment that we talk about. So growth of the offshore installed base is super important seen from a divisional standpoint. So when I look at just the market conditions looking forward, I would say they are fairly supportive seen from what we have been witnessing in the past and compared to what we expect going forward. We've had Thomas talk about the energy transition today and the energy transition that hits other industries impacts shipping as well. As you can see from the picture, the share of multi-fuel vessels is increasing over time. In 2024, 1 in 3 vessels have been contracted multi-fuel. And for those of you who are not familiar with it, a multi-fuel vessel is one where the primary fuel is either a low-carbon fuel, could be LPG, could be LNG or a zero carbon fuel, could it be green methanol, could it be green ammonia, backed up by a liquid fossil fuel. That is what you define a multi-fuel vessel. And what's driving this complete transition is regulation, regulation from EU, EU ETS, EU FuelEU and IMO, which has got the carbon intensity indicator progressively tightening over time. That is what drives regulation because increasingly so, shipowners have to pay a penalty or a tax on their greenhouse gas emissions when you're trading into EU. And what we expect going forward will be -- this will be rolled out globally through IMO as well. Now if you put on a shipowner's hat here, and you see from an industry standpoint, green fuels at the moment are actually not available in any significant manner. There is no green fuel trading on the water today. No ammonia traded on the water, no green ammonia, no green methanol. And if you need to bunker vessels in different ports, you need to have this trade going. At the moment, it's 0. Shipowners, their strategy now is to say, okay, let me start with the fossil fuel vessel, dope it with HVO, maybe a biofuel and then eventually move to methanol. If you decide to go for LNG as a primary fuel where the infrastructure is in place, maybe you could do it first with bio-LNG, then go to e-LNG and hopefully move to ammonia one day. So seen from a shipowner standpoint, the industry is moving to a structure where everyone is looking for fuel flexibility as one and then solutions around being able to deploy the green fuels when they become available at scale one day. And the way we see this happening at this point in time is we have decided we will facilitate this transformation of -- towards the energy transition in 3 dimensions: energy efficiency, clean fuels and operational practice. I think energy efficiency and clean fuels are rather similar to what is happening in the Energy division as well. And operational practice is something probably is a bit more unique to what we are trying to achieve in the Marine division. And the reason to select these 3 dimensions is any fuel in the future, the one thing that is a given is going to be more expensive than the fuel we have today as it would already be part of the mix, which means energy efficiency becomes paramount. Clean fuels will come eventually, and there is a need for the current solutions to be fuel flexible and also a need for new solutions around deploying these new fuels. And finally, we know working smarter makes good sense every day wherever you are, and we are driving this through our digital solutions that we have inside the Marine division, primarily StormGeo. Let me give you a slightly deeper insight into what we are doing around each of these 3 areas. We are -- for one, we have started to extend our energy efficiency portfolio. And typically -- I have given 3 examples. One is of a product enhancement, one is a new product and one is a new technology platform. We have been delivering freshwater generators to the industry for decades. Effectively, you take waste heat from an engine and you use it to convert seawater into freshwater that you can use for portable duty on board a vessel. Our new generation freshwater generators, the AQUA Blue E2, uses 50% less energy for the same amount of water to be produced compared to our previous generation. This has been extremely well received by our customers. We have a very strong growing pipeline for this particular product. An example of a new product itself, we deliver cooling water on offshore platforms to FPSOs, to converter platforms for the topside cooling. And these are coming from Framo, and these are typically really large power consumers. This is just not a small pump. A typical pump solution for something like this consumes 8 to 10 megawatts of power to be able to do the cooling duty required on an FPSO topside. On an FLNG, it's even bigger actually. And the new product that we have developed is a submerged overboard turbine. So when the water returns after calling duty and goes back overboard over this big height, you recover the energy from the potential head in the water and you're able to recover 20% to 30% of this energy and it goes back to the ship's grid. This product doesn't take -- did not exist before we have produced it in Alfa Laval. It is becoming increasingly specified in new offshore assets being contracted today. We invested in the OceanGlide technology platform, 2023. To those of you who are not familiar with it, effectively, this solution delivers the carpet of air or micro bubbles between the hull and the water in order to reduce the frictional drag between the ship. So you can reduce -- so you reduce the amount of power needed to drive the vessel through the water. I must admit this has been a bit of a learning journey for us as well, not just in terms of having the product to perform because we have this sailing on 10 ships operational already. But even when we have been running this technology platform, there is no industry standard to measure how do you actually measure savings achieved by a ship owner when the technology is actually implemented. So not only are we developing the next generation of product here, but we have been working with classification to develop an industrial standard of how to actually measure savings on a vessel at different speeds in different sea conditions and different heel, trim, all the different ship's -- the condition the ship has. So there has been a lot of learning here, and we are releasing the next generation, and we have actually already contracted 2 ships that will be -- where this will be deployed in 2025. In terms of the addressable market, all 3 solutions that you have as an example here can be deployed as a retrofit on the existing fleet and also on a new building vessel with slightly more skew on a new building because the payback time on a new building, when you don't have to retrofit is a little bit better on new buildings. In the clean fuels areas, we have a tradition of supplying fuel supply systems in 2 ships. We have been doing for years in the past. Typically, it has been liquid fossil fuels. What it does is effectively, it takes fossil fuel oil from the tank, brings it to the right pressure, right temperature, right viscosity, cleans it and then make sure it's in the right quantity being sent into the engine for use in a ship's engine. We have enhanced this product in steps. First, we developed a system that could also do LPG, then it went to LNG. We have then went -- gone to methanol biofuels. And this year, we have released the ammonia fuel supply system. It's the first of its kind in the world. There is no other company who has delivered an ammonia fuel supply system into the world. And it is going to be operational to one of the engine makers, WinGD sometime in quarter 4 this year. So we expect this will also be a good growth area for us going forward. Framo, as all of you know, deliver -- most of you think they only deliver cargo pumps, but they do much more than that. They deliver pumps for ballast water. They deliver pumps for aquaculture. They deliver pumps for anti-heeling. They deliver a vast area of pumps. And using this technology platform, we have developed what we call liquified gas pumps, the first version of which is an LNG fuel pump. So it's a cryogenic fuel pump. The first unit has been delivered in 2024. We expect it to be operational in 2025. But this is sensitive technology, which means you really want to run -- have proof of concept in operation, run it for 3 to 6 months before you really scale the platform up and deploy more of these towards your customers. But the ambition here is the platform will be the same when we choose to go to CO2, and then we choose to go to ammonia. But the very first product that we have out is the liquefied gas pump and we are testing it at this point in time on board after we've had successful almost 2 years of testing and development in our own facilities in Bergen. We invested in the Oceanbird joint venture together with Wallenius in 2021. And in this product, what it does is, it uses wind to be able to propel our vessels through the water. It's been a journey. We have been 3.5 years into the product. We have gone from concept to design, to prototype, to detail engineering, to building a supply chain. It takes time to build something like this, and I always say that this is the first time ever that in the Marine division of Alfa Laval, we recruited an aerodynamic engineer into the company because we have actually not tried such a technology platform in the past year. But it has been a good journey and we expect that the first land prototype will be operational in Landskrona at the -- in the first quarter 2025, and the first onboard installation will be fully operational by the end of 2025. Again, a very positive development in this area. And there is -- among all the different devices that we see in the market, this is probably the one which has almost the highest traction. There are today close to 150 vessels who are already trying to use some form of wind assistance or wind propulsion. So again, the TAM, if I look for all these technology platforms, both retrofit and new building, but again, with a skew towards new building. If I look at operational practice, this is geared towards leveraging StormGeo, both stand-alone and together with the physical assets of Alfa Laval. It's about operational transparency. It's about better operational practice. Those are the 2 key elements here. If you look at StormGeo, they deliver their fleet performance management solutions, the team delivers about to 13,000 ships at this point in time. And we have developed a new software around emissions reporting and compliance planning. And we upsold, cross-sold these solutions to 3,500 vessels in the last 2 years, and these are all paid subscriptions based on the existing customer base of StormGeo. And the simple reason for this is, this is mandated by IMO and EU. You have to report your emissions on an annual basis into the EU, the MRV or the DCS in IMO. Our Framo customer portal, it has been a real success. We launched it -- launched this about 2 years ago, and we have 2,000-plus ships on the Framo customer portal within 2 years of deployment. Effectively, what it does is, it makes sure that you can monitor the health of your product on board, is your equipment running well and you're able to do service management, service manuals, if you need -- and with the ambition maybe one day also to get to be able to order spare parts directly on the customer portal. We have rolled out or we have repeated this product for 2 more product verticals this year, our ballast water business and for our scrubber business. And the reason we selected these 2 verticals was this is where our own data was of the highest possible quality. When you're rolling out something towards the customer, your data has to be 100%. There is no room for it to be 99%. It's like your bank account, you need to know, is the money in your bank -- when you click on your -- on the portal, is the number right? There is no -- 0.5 doesn't really work. It has to be 100%. And in these 2 product verticals, our data quality is really, really high. And minimum viable products are now released in quarter 4, 2024. And we expect that this will be rolled out into more product verticals down in the future. The reason I would like to highlight this particular initiative is the following: increasingly so, irrespective of which physical product that you and I own either in the private life or in the business vertical, our operating window to the physical asset has become the user interface, the digital platform. And these interfaces tend to be really sticky. Once you get used to a user interface, you don't want to move. And the reason I want to flag this is, this is not just about monetization of the data and the health of the equipment on board. Actually, it's a tremendous barrier to entry so that when the user gets used to your product, they just don't want to switch because they're really comfortable with the user interface. And that is what we are trying to achieve here. And we believe this will translate into a better market position in capital sales and better prices in capital sales down the line, it's not about just monetizing our service business here. We decided to enter the bunker management space. About 2 years ago, we acquired the company, BunkerMetric, 2022, and then we made a partnership with a company called NSI who's a banker broker. And the simple reason we decided to do so was, we believe, bunkering will get increasingly complex going forward. Today, it's about you pick up a fossil fuel, either in Rotterdam or in Fujairah or in Singapore, and that's roughly it, give or take. In the future, you may have to decide; a, which fuel do you need? Are you going to bunker biofuel? Are you going to bunker methanol, depending on the price in the market? And this is going to be available at different points in the world. You have a ships trading pattern, you need to make sure you make the best possible decision around the trading pattern of the vessel. And you cannot leave that to someone who has been employed 2 years ago to make a decision like this, you need a system that is better than an individual. So the -- we have rolled out this platform in 2024. Within the first year, we have more than 100 vessels trading 300,000 tonnes of bunkers on our platform, and we are on a path to go to 4-digit vessels here within 1 year, and we are very confident we are going to get there. When you look at the TAM for this particular area, it's actually the operating fleet. It's slightly different from the other two. The other two were bid around new building retrofits. For this area, the TAM for this area is the operating fleet. So 50-odd-thousand vessels on which you can work with these particular solutions here in operating practice. And if you want to see the financial impact of what we have achieved till date, it's not about the future, it's what we have done until today. Five years ago, almost all our volumes around the sustainability portfolio came from 2 product verticals: scrubbers and ballast water. The retrofit is behind us, and we are still delivering the same volume based on what we have created around our multi-fuel solutions, our energy-saving devices, they have compensated for all the loss of volume we have had post the retrofit boom being behind us. And then if you take a slightly broader view of what we have developed, what we have invested in over the last 4 years since 2021, when we were trying to put the picture together, my first thought was -- because you don't see this every day, my god, that's a lot, that's what I had in my head. You do this every day. You don't think what all has come into the picture. But when you put a picture together, my thought was, okay, we've done quite a bit in the last 4 years, actually. And the red thread running through all of this is actually sustainability. It's either energy efficiency or a deployment of a clean fuel or operational practice. That's the red thread to all of this. If you look from an investment standpoint, it's a mix of organic growth, it's acquisitions and partnerships. And the simple reason why we have selected these 3 pathways altogether is it's just not possible to take on all the opportunities that we have on the table by ourselves. We simply don't have the capacity to do everything and the opportunities are so many that we need to work both on the M&A side and through partnerships in order to get the -- capture the opportunities that is available for us now ahead of us. From a financial standpoint, we have meaningful volumes, but we don't have significant volumes as yet, but there is a pathway to get to significant volumes. But we need to execute on the plan, but we have definitely optionality and pathway to get to significant volumes in this particular area. But singularly the most important thing seen from my eyes is how we have repositioned Alfa Laval as a brand seen in front of the customer. If you were to ask the customer 5 years ago, they would say Alfa Laval is a top-tier OEM, without exception. That's the fact. Today, when you speak to a customer, they come to us when they think around, how do I future-proof my asset? We have transitioned the complete brand into a transition leader, into the company you go to ask, how do I plan my assets? How do I build my assets? What kind of fuel shall I use? And how can Alfa Laval make sure that my asset, which has had a lifetime of 20 to 25 years, on an LNG carrier, 35 years, is not stranded economically halfway down that pathway. I need to be future-proof, I need to be fuel flexible. They come to Alfa Laval for a decision like this. In summary, putting it all together, we see better market conditions. Looking ahead, we are very confident that energy transition is supportive to us. And last but not the least, we will continue to have a balanced approach where we work for the quarter, but at the same time, we still keep investing for the future because in the end, the business needs to be -- get stronger over time. So the well-balanced approach is really, really important.
Fredrik Ekstrom
executiveI will give you a financial update, which is always a great thing to do right after lunch. But I hope most of you will find it interesting enough to stay awake. We have named this financial update, a track record of profitable growth. And I think you will agree with me that by the time I finish this presentation that, that is the case. And if you don't, we can have a chat afterwards. It is always a good idea to start with looking back a little bit of what we have done. And we have been investing on a historic level for Alfa Laval. And the numbers you see in front of you detail the investments we have made, not only on CapEx but on OpEx as well on R&D and on sales and administration costs. What's interesting with these numbers is that they represent a fantastic growth, and they're in line with the guidance that we have given you in the past. CapEx over the last 3 years has, of course, to a very large extent, been about capturing organic growth. So we've invested heavily in capacity, and that, you have seen in the factory that you've walked through today. We have invested in footprint, the building we're standing on or in is a representation of that. And that is replicated in many parts of Alfa Laval. So it's not unique to this site. We have also invested, of course, in upgrading our existing manufacturing assets. That keeps us competitive. We have also invested a lot in automation and optimization and that we will continue to do. One of the divisions that stands out from a CapEx point of view is, of course, the Energy division, where we've had a lot of organic growth opportunities, and we've actually increased our investment rates by 38% over a 3-year period. But we haven't only invested in brick-and-mortar and machinery and equipment. We have also invested in our products, and that, we have done in the form of R&D. We have renewed our product portfolio, and we are developing a lot of new products using proprietary technologies. And this keeps us ahead of the competition. This is one of the key differentiators for Alfa Laval and it is that we develop the most advanced products within the fields that we operate in and it makes us the technology leaders. SG&A growth that you see here for the 3 divisions is not only the addition of colleagues that we have done over the last 3 years in order to follow growth, it's also an investment in local presence. It's an investment in service capabilities and presence. It's an investment in digitalization, and it is an investment in application expertise. So it goes well beyond just feet on the street. So this is what we have invested in the last 3 years. Has it yielded the growth that we would expect it to? And the answer is actually, yes. Over the period of 2017 to 2024, we have grown with 9% per year. And you'll forgive that, that is not capital sales, that is on a total level. We have had 3 distinct periods of growth, one that came when we went into the new organization with the product-driven business units. That ushered in the first sort of phase of organic growth, and you see it very clearly between 2017 and 2020. And that was really a renewal of the products that we had. It was the development of the products that we had, but it was a time when we went deeper into our product knowledge, which meant we started to have a different dialogue with our customers and the market, which led to us get a lot more insight, which was going to generate the next wave of growth we thought. Then COVID hit. And we had a contraction of volumes, but not everywhere. Food & Water continued to grow during the pandemic period, whereas Marine and Energy division had a tougher time. Then came the second phase of organic growth that was ushered in really, around the beginning or end of 2021 with the culmination of a lot of the COVID lockdowns. And what's interesting with that growth is that it was ushered in by 3 big trends that continue even today. It's energy efficiency, energy -- sorry, the new energy landscape, decarbonization and an increased demand for power. And that stretches across all 3 of the divisions. The growth we have seen over the last 3 years, in other words, that is 13% per year on capital sales and 15% growth on service. So I would say that the investments that we have made have paid off quite handsomely at least when it comes to the turnover. So how does it look in actual profitability then? Well, the profitability curve tells 2 stories. It tells a story of a decline that started to happen somewhere around 2021. And that was based very much on the need of restructuring of 2 of our business units: one was the welded heat exchanger business unit, and the other one was the heat and gas systems business unit. I will come back to the restructuring of one of them in a case story a little bit later, but we have been successful with that restructuring. We also had to deal with a backlog that was a little bit out of phase with the inflation that we saw directly after the pandemic. We had to deal with that. We had imbalances in some of our product groups in relation to the utilization of our assets. We have come through that. In fact, we have a really good utilization rate in most of our factories, save for a few investments related directly to heat pump. And I will come back to those as well. So we have a situation here that by the beginning of 2023, we took a directional shift upwards towards where we are today at 16.5% on an LTM basis. But what that graph doesn't tell you is that the mix is not the same. It's still 30% service in the mix, which means that service has kept up with the growth of capital sales. But the growth in capital sales has a much larger component of project business than it did in the periods before. And that's something I think you should take with you when you do your analysis on Alfa Laval. The 16.5% adjusted EBITDA margin yields a net income of SEK 10.2 billion on the last 12 months basis. That represents an earnings per share of SEK 16.67 or an increase of 9% for our shareholders. And I think that's a pretty good development over the last 12 months, and that has been the development that we have seen in the last 24 months. We have also increased our dividend with 15.4% in the dividend payment that we did this year. So we are returning money to our shareholders. We have a backlog that comes as a result of the healthy order intake that we've had so far this year. In fact, we have a record high order book at SEK 52 billion. The quality of that backlog is high. In other words, it is in good sync with the material cost price -- the material costs that we have today and the other inputs that we have into our manufacturing system. So it's a backlog that is well in tune with the cost picture that we have today. SEK 15 billion of that is for invoicing this year. Some of it probably will slip into 2025, if experience is something to go on or history is something to go on. SEK 37 billion of that is going into 2025. About half of the SEK 52 billion that you see there is Marine backlog. Also important to bear with you. I would say that the SEK 37 billion in 2025 puts us in a pretty good state when it comes to revenues next year and the infra out required to reach a similar level of revenue this year. That profitability has also generated a fantastic cash flow development. And I would say over the last 5 quarters, we've seen a real high yield or conversion from profit into cash flow. We have 10 quarters behind us of disrupted supply chains that came as supply chains were disrupted after the pandemic and after, of course, the exclusive demand that happened thereafter, that nobody anticipated. That also meant that during that period of disruption, we allowed ourselves to build up a bigger inventory and we allowed ourselves to have a larger or should we say, more generous payment terms with many of our suppliers. That meant that the operating working capital balance to invoicing fell out of sync. And we were above 25% in proportion or in relation during the period of those 10 quarters. Beginning of 2023, we said now the situation has normalized. In other words, we need to put in initiatives to make sure that inventory falls back into a relationship with invoicing that makes sense. And of course, we started the initiatives to control and discipline our operating working capital. I would say the yield that we see now during this year of SEK 8.1 billion in the first 9 months of the year, testified to the fact that we have established that operating working capital balance to invoicing again. In fact, when we departed quarter 3, it was at 14.9%, which is on the low side of the range that we have set ourselves. We've said that we want to operate in the range between 15% and 20%. Return on capital employed is on a very good level, 22.8%. And of course, some of that has to do with the fact that we have finished the amortization of step-up values on many of our larger acquisitions that were made some 10 years ago. But if we look at the same figure, return on capital employed, excluding goodwill and excluding step-up values, then it's at 58%. And if you look at it historically, it's been above that 50% line for quite some time. So I would say that we are generating a good profitability on everything we invest and everything we put into our capital. This cash flow has also allowed us to finance completely from funds generated by the business when it comes to our OpEx investments and when it comes to our CapEx investments. We haven't, in the last 36 months, borrowed any money in order to finance any OpEx or any CapEx. In fact, the cash flow has been so positive that we have also taken the advantage to service our debt, and we have deleveraged with SEK 5 billion over the last 12 months. That's a substantial strengthening of the balance sheet. Now you may be wondering, what are we going to do with the strengthened balance sheet? And the first topic on that is, of course, how we grow inorganically or through acquisitions. And two, a couple of words about acquisitions that we have done and the track history that we have about acquisitions before continuing to looking at it in a forward-looking manner, and that is we have a history of good acquisitions. In fact, we have not written off any goodwill related to acquisitions during -- in the last 5 years. I think that's a strong track record. We continue to buy quality companies, and we will continue to be -- buy quality companies, keeping a discipline on the due diligence that we do. We also want to pay reasonable multiples. Nonetheless, we have a pipeline of acquisition candidates that we're working with right now. And we hope that in the not-too-distant future, we will be announcing some of those acquisitions. There's 3 very distinct strategies for the 3 divisions when it comes to acquisitions. And with the Marine division, it's very much about expanding the product portfolio for existing customers and maybe a bolt-on acquisition for the digital services that we currently have and that we have expanded our software suite. Food & Water, it's more about a broader portfolio in relation and generation to food applications. And then Desmet is a pretty good example of how we go to market to expand our reach. A bolt-on product is, of course, also interesting here. The Energy division, it is an acquisition, a technology acquisition to further our opportunities in the new energy landscape. And of course, we also want opportunities around server capabilities and digital services. But it's not only about inorganic growth. We're going to continue to invest in our organic growth. So we have a CapEx program that looks forward. And if you look at the CapEx program that we've had so far, it's been very much, again, around capacity, footprint and automation and restructuring. That is what we have spent the money on between 2022 and '24. We expect to continue to invest in all our businesses over the period of 2025 and 2027. So the guidance that we have currently of CapEx in the range of SEK 2.5 billion to SEK 3 billion over a year is going to continue, so going forward for the next 3 years. And you can expect that, that investment tranche is going to be a little bit different than the one we have done now. It's going to be less footprint. And of course, you see that in the percentage of machinery and equipment of each one of the CapEx categories, but it's going to be also very much in line with making sure that we have scalability, that we have versatility or interchangeability and that we have automization and optimization of our processes. I should also say that the third part of our capital allocation is, of course, a dividend, and the dividends will continue to be paid to our shareholders in line with dividend policy that we have stated. Now if you allow me 4 business cases and 4 business cases to a little bit enlighten you on how we make our decisions, how we look at things and how we formulate a long-term vision. And what's going to bind all of these 4 cases together is that there's a long-term view. There's some short-term actions, but it's very much about the long term. Framo, which is a company most of you are acquainted with, was an acquisition we did some 10 years ago. They are the undisputed world leader when it comes to pumping systems for tanker applications and offshore applications. They have, by all means, a profitable business. But between 2018 and 2022, the contracting of tanker vessels and offshore platforms was on a record low. So we had a period of quite large underutilization of our manufacturing assets in Bergen, and we had a lot of people that were, by all means, application experts and very talented engineers, but had somewhat little to do. We could have made the decision, of course, at that point in time, to say we could rationalize footprint, reduce production capacity and lose some of our colleagues. We would have lost them to a region that would have absorbed them directly into the oil industry, which means we would have never gotten those people back. So instead of taking a rash decision, we did take a look at what does the market really tell us and what does the market intelligence that we have today tell us. It tells us that the tanker contracting and offshore has been underinvested for a really long period of time. So reasonably, within a reasonable time frame, we should see a resurgence of that contracting. So rather than reduce that business, we said, let's put that business in an R&D mode for that time. And so we have developed new products. We have developed a more efficient pumping system. We have developed the energy efficiency recovery system that you saw Sameer present earlier today. We have also ventured into fisheries through our aquaculture initiatives. And of course, we have developed a cryogenic pump, that you saw Sameer also -- that has been done during that period. Now 2022 -- at the end of 2022 up to date, we have seen a return of all of the activity around tanker contracting and offshore. That means that we have been in a perfect position to be able to capture all of the business that we have selected and that we have said this is the business that we want to have in Framo. Today, we have a full order book. We wouldn't have been able to do that if we had taken a short-term decision at that point in time. Another case that I'd like to highlight. And of course, Tim did us the favor of explaining Desmet in quite some detail today, so I want to go into the same detail except to say that this is one of those decisions where we sat down and looked, how do we increase our exposure in the Food & Water division going outside of the areas where we traditionally work. And of course, it fell on biofuels. We want to have a larger exposure to biofuels, and it fit perfectly well. I mean, it fits with the way we work. It fits with the way we engineer. They use our decanters, they use our separators, they use our heat exchangers and our -- the boilers on board. So there is a lot of synergy from a product point of view. But it also expanded our upstream exposure to animal feed and our downstream exposure to oleochemicals. So that opens up a new avenue and a broader spectrum for us to develop further products on. And that is really the rationale for it. In 2023, we had a fantastic development of Desmet on the top line and very much driven by the prices of edible oil in speculation of the developments into biodiesel. In 2024, we see a somewhat more normalized demand around biodiesel and biofuels. But we see that the case that we committed to when we did the acquisition is sound and validated. And we continue to be excited about the opportunities of developing new products and continuing to operate in these end markets. So let's talk a little bit about where we are today, which is the third case that I'd like to bring up. Today, we are the product technology leader in this business unit. That wasn't always the case. And we have been on a strong growth trajectory since 2017 in this business unit. We work here with very large key accounts, which gives us an enormous access to the market and enormous access to the insight of what's going to be happening in that market, which also made us be able to anticipate and take a courageous decision to make the investment that we're sitting in today. It also means that we have a tight dialogue with our customers who expect us to invest with them. So when the sort of -- the conspired variables that Thomas mentioned earlier with the delta between the gas and the electric price, national security, the invasion of Ukraine, subsidies being generous led to a super boom in heat pumps. Then our customers turned to us and said, you're the supplier, you're the preferred supplier, you are the technology leader, will you invest with us? Our decision was to invest with them, and you saw a lot of those investments today. We also knew that the product that we have here is a versatile product. It just does not only go into heat pumps, it goes into air conditioning systems, it goes into process chillers, it goes into data centers, it goes into oil cooling. So we knew that should the heat pump opportunity not immediately materialize or materialize in the same speed and magnitude that we had anticipated when we did the business case for the investment, we knew that there were other legs to stand on. We knew that there were other industries that will come to grow, and that's exactly what's happening right now with data centers. So product versatility here really plays a big role in what we do, and standing close to our customers plays a big role. We continue to invest here, and we continue to invest in entrepreneurial spirit that also exists on the site. Today, we are the technology leaders, and we will remain technology leaders here. The final case that I have for you today before I go to my closing remarks, is really around the heat and gas systems, where we have had a boom and bust cycle, I think it's fair to say. Because a lot of you should remember that, in the not so distant past, between 2018 and 2021 -- or even 2017 to 2021, we really had a star here in this business unit. The scrubber volumes were on an all-time high. The ballast water volumes were at an all-time high. And it was all legislation driven, and it was also driven in a retrofit window. We knew there was a retrofit window. We did everything we did to build up a lot of capacity in order to fit that retrofit window, knowing that 4 years later, we were going to have to contract down that capacity down to normal shipyard contracting patterns. That's a big ask. And we were able to, of course, capture a lot of volume and a lot of profitability for us and, of course, for our shareholders. What also happened at the same time was that there was a competitive landscape shift. Being a Western-based manufacturing was no longer viable from a competitive point of view, and it was no longer seen as a competitive advantage either by our customers. That's a fairly important input. We knew then that we needed to make a change, and we did made a change, and we have moved, consequently, most of the manufacturing, the engineering and the logistics services around this business unit to our manufacturing unit in Qingdao, China. And that is close to where 60% to 70% of the shipyard capacity is today. So it makes a lot of industrial sense as well. That was one part of it. The other part is the multifuel opportunity that arose then for boilers. That meant that we needed to develop a new boiler range, and it gave us an opportunity to once again through technology, differentiate ourselves from our competition. And that has proven also one of the recovery momentum that we have in this business unit. So again, taking a long-term view, understanding our customers, looking at the market, that's what really binds these 4 cases together, and in many ways, encapsulates how we think. I'm going to close my remarks with giving you a sort of overview of what we have done in the last 3 years in relation to the financial targets that we have. And I think it's safe to say that we have outpaced our growth targets by quite some margin. We have grown with 21.1% per year over the last 3 years. And of course, there has been an explosive growth, and you saw that in the order intake graph, that I showed you from the beginning. Adjusted EBITDA over the last 3 years has averaged above our target at 16.3%. And then we have dealt with the restructuring. We have dealt with a backlog that was out of sync. We have dealt with inflation, and we have dealt with some myriad of other elements. I would say that's a job well done. And then we have a return on capital employed at 19.3%. So all in all, I think the status is that we are in good shape from a financial point of view, and we have a position that allows us to continue to grow both organically and inorganically, and we look forward to that journey. And with that closing remark, I hand over to Tom.
Tom Erixon
executiveSo thank you for that wonderful music. It's been a long day and a lot of the facts feeding. I just think we round this off, last half hour with a little bit lighter. I'm going to be temporarily, a real estate manager and show you a little bit what did you as shareholders get for the money. Fredrik, gave a number of SEK 6 billion, SEK 7 billion in invested capital over the last few years, some more to come. I figured I'd give you a little bit sort of a rundown on what you've seen and what you haven't seen. And I just want to remind you that we are in San Bonifacio, we are in 1 of the 4 units in 1 of the 15 business units, right? So that is what we are seeing today. And we are here because we had to pick some place. We could be in 15 other units somewhere around the world, and you would see something similar. We didn't take the worst unit that we have, right? I mean -- but I just -- it is not all that unique. It's different. It's built on different success factors. We think this is a good place to be, not only because it's a place we invested, but we wanted to show you a little bit the story of the energy transition, right? And so for that reason, it fits very well for us to be here. And what we're trying to showcase to you a little bit is -- I'm not going to convince you of any targets. You know me well enough that -- you make your own conclusion on what you think. But we think it's prudent that we try to share the market and the trends, the way we see them, what we have in our cockpit when we make our decisions, whether it's capital allocations or whether it is in terms of how we do the business planning going forward. And so that's kind of what we are wrapping up now in that session. And I will touch on these things a little bit from the point of view of scaling because we are, as you've seen on the financials, these numbers kind of they don't happen. They are planned and executed and all of that. So how we scale the businesses has perhaps been the most difficult issue for us over the last few years, and it remains the most difficult issue. And as you've seen from some of the presentations today, how fast hydrogen will happen, not happen; how fast biofuels will happen, not happen; how fast a number of the other verticals that we are in are going to happen and not happen, is difficult. So I'll give you a sense for how we're doing that. You've seen the scaling here. And I think what you should bring with you from the factory visit is that what you saw was not a scaling on the existing manufacturing technology, right? When we went up in mass volumes, we were looking for new ways to scale into a different process, to get the economies of scale and not just modularize another press, another furnace, another this. So unless you build structural competitive advantages over time, it's going to be really easy to copy us down the road. And so I think if you think through everything, you have a sense of how we think about competitive barriers in our businesses. And you can see the difficulty of scaling here based on what you've seen. We scaled too quickly in hindsight, right? Is it waste money? We put a few hundred million euros onto this and the other units is well known. There are still equipment coming in. Two years ago, we felt we were too late, too late, too late. This year, we think we were too early, too early, too early. And I think '25-'26, we will moderate out, I think, somewhere in between. We'll get back to growth as you've seen. The service business we talked about, you've seen some pictures of that already. Service needs scaling as well. The most structural training we do is that today, our service centers are being industrialized in a way we didn't do it before. Digital condition monitoring systems and other tools is making our service work more efficient. The training programs for service technicians is getting professionalized. So the industrialization of the service business is very, very important. And the most physical expression of that is the fact that you need warehouses. And here, you see 2 warehouses. None of them exist. Lund is almost existing, at least in terms of roofs and walls, operationally starting beginning next year. We are consolidating and it's a major facility. And in fact, those who were on the tool workshop today heard that there was a discussion on the new tool factory in Lund. It is, I totally agree, one of our most strategic assets. And right here, you will potentially 1 day see the world's by far largest, best, most sophisticated tool manufacturing unit in pressing technology. So we're happy about that. This other one is Indianapolis. And it's not entirely a warehouse. It's largely a warehouse, but it will also allow us to move manufacturing for fluid handling, pumps and bells and build that structurally stronger in the U.S. And then eventually, we will see how far we go in terms of the space for warehousing. This is a warehouse for small SKUs. So this will follow the implementation of automated warehousing systems that we use in other parts of the world. And we are getting the service technology, the distribution of spares and small SKUs into a very good structure in North America. So we're spending a lot of money on this, too. Two examples on the warehouse. It's not the only one, and there is more to come in the future. So service business. Technology development is ongoing. We are a 140-year-old company. And we started with separators, we are still doing separators, and Emma told you the stories of some of the separator technology that is rolled out right now. Sometimes you can't help looking at the development and say, "Why did it take us 140 years to figure this one out?" But in reality, every -- well, it took Sammy, right, to give you some credit. But in reality, things get better. And our only competitive advantage is not in what we have today, it's what we're going to have tomorrow. So this continues. And what you see here is then a needed change for our facility in Tumba, which has been the high-speed separation center for years and years and was just not right anymore. And the big part that was not right is actually this dark part. That is an 8,000 square meter lab, a pretty advanced and heavy lab with security zones and whatnot. And that's tough to move a lab into a city, but we are. We found a great place. We're coming closer to the city center. Obviously, we're not in the middle of the city, but we are in a very central point south of Stockholm, still. And the rest of what you see is about office space and customer space for about 700, 750 employees, mainly HSS, high speed, but partly also the Marine service -- the Marine organization in Stockholm. So it's a great transformation. What happens on the technology lab, I'm sure we're going to have a Capital Markets Day there eventually. We obviously -- this is our heritage, so it's a big thing for us. We're doing lots of things in development still that will come new generations. One of the things that is happening connected to this is related to the digitalization and beyond AI. There is a number of things going on inside the separators. And today, we have sensor technologies for the traditional vibrations and temperatures controls, but we can also read what's happening in the process. So today, remote diagnostics, remote control is driving a lot. What can you do with the data? You can do a lot with the data when it comes to AI. And today, there are troubleshooting service programs being developed in that direction. There are product configurators being developed in that direction. And across the company, we are probably working with some 20 use cases between us and customers in order to validate where will this take us and how will our customer interface and our customer service in terms of where do we need to engage personally versus where can we automate part of that. I am personally not a big fan of paying Microsoft billions of dollars in order to have my people doing slides or executive summaries with AI. I think doing the work yourself is a way of learning. I believe design engineering is a way of learning. So I don't like the cheating part of it, but the automation part in terms of the customer is something that I like. So I envision that we will have limited amount of licenses and not copilot licenses for $10 million every year for every workstation we have in the company. So I think we will see where that goes. But when it's time to pay, I think a couple of people will choke, including myself. All right. That was one for nailing down there. With that said, we are building the data center. So we're really happy about everybody who wants to have copilots. I think it's a wonderful tool for everybody else. So you need to trouble on that one. On the geographical side, let me reflect on two. This is our unit in Qingdao, China. And it has, over time, gravitated to become the big marine center for us, not only in base manufacturing of boilers, but in a broader way, and I think we will continue to build on that. We have continued to invest in China. We don't believe geopolitics will kill shipbuilding. And as Fredrik said, when 2/3 of the world's ships are being built in China, that's not going to change tomorrow. Japan is decreasing, Korea is not going particularly anywhere. New yards around the world are a few. It's a couple of cruise yards in Europe. So China has to build the ships or we won't have any. And we believe -- and this is more than half at the moment of our Chinese exposure. So we're big in China. But this part of the business is Western companies specifying our equipment to be assembled and monitored in China. We believe that business model holds. We are all in. We are not de-risking or deleveraging. This is the way to market for us in the marine industry. If you think that everything is Alfa Laval, then maybe you're a little bit worried and say we went overboard. But I can -- coincidentally, all the blue roofs are not ours. So the rest is still a worldwide, our biggest unit. The China build up structurally, and we are large in 3 locations in China. This is one of them. The structural buildup with China as a growth market and China as a manufacturing hub, that structural buildup is over. We are doing some adjustments and additions and whatnot. But it will not be a magnet for our CapEx in the future. The big question we have in Asia, and if you think about us, we are 45% Asian in terms of our end customers today, it's a matter of time when -- until Asia will cross the 50%. And so we are extremely exposed and engaged in the Asian continent. And of course, the question is what's going to happen after China? And we've been in India as a manufacturing company since the '60s. We have a pretty good presence in certain technologies there since decades back. But we really started India in order to serve the local market. And we have been waiting for India to leave the development country type of mentality with import tariffs and bureaucracy and open up in free trade agreements so that we could develop India the same way we did in China 20 years ago as a manufacturing hub and an export hub for, at least for the rest of Southeast Asia, and we are not there yet. The only FTA that exist of any importance is between India and Malaysia, and that's not good enough for us. So we are a little bit holding our horses. But with that said, here you see the one unit. The building wasn't so -- it's not new and it didn't look so impressive. So we had to put the equipment inside because that is actually what matters. And you may recognize this sort of press technology from what you've seen here. It's a much larger press. But we are building our manufacturing -- continue to build our manufacturers cautiously in India. We're not all in yet. But if India doesn't resolve itself in the next few years, we may be forced to find a different footprint solution for Southeast Asia for the next 10 years. That's kind of where we are on the scaling in India. There is a lot of new technology happening. You've seen some of that. And in those areas, more often than not, we need specialized production technology. We spoke about metallic bonding here. Today, there are other bonding applications. What you see here is a printed circuit heat exchanger used in other things -- among other things for fuel stations for hydrogen, which we thought were going to be huge in France a couple of years ago, and it didn't quite happen. But we are selling a lot of these already. We had the technology in a very small scale in Korea. So we've been taking it to France. This is 1 of the 2 furnaces put in there. It's super expensive furnaces. It's a very advanced thermal program to get this right. They are hard to make, but we have figured out a good way. So we are expanding the technology here on one of our sites in France. So there is a lot of -- this would remind you of the story you've seen here, the type of problems we are trying to fix, the type of issues we are facing from a technology point of view. So that's sort of where the SEK 6 billion plus has gone. And as you saw, a couple of billion will be spent in the years to come. And the single most important investment decision in terms of size that we have ahead of us in the next 12 months or so is how to deal with Framo. And I think you heard the story from a couple of perspectives during the day, but this is a shot of the old Framo -- 1 of 3 Framo sites in Bergen with a head office, a wonderful swimming pool that was built by the previous owner. Not an executives swimming pool, a swimming pool that people can use for swimming, actually. So -- but then overlook the fjord, it's a beautiful thing. And here is the service workshop. And then the manufacturing units are in 2 different locations. Now when we bought this 2013, we bought what we felt was not a structurally growing business but a very healthy, profitable unit with a very dedicated market segment. So running at a turnover at around SEK 4 billion, right? That's what we bought. And if we look at it now, we have a service business covering a whole range of products, including offshore, including products from Baker Hughes and Sperry and a whole bunch of equipment and suppliers into the offshore industry that does not have local servicing capabilities. So if you come into that workshop, you can pretty much pick every brand that you want in offshore, and you will find it there. That business, including our own installed base, as Sameer was alluding to, is significantly bigger now. So this service workshop is not enough. On the offshore, we bought an offshore business of about -- Sameer, I don't know. Where, Sameer? Yes. About, I think, SEK 1.5 billion or something like that, right, at low profitability. Today, we are running it at above group average in terms of margin. It's -- it will go volatile, but I think structurally, it's doubled easily. And then we have the cargo pumping apart from the aquaculture and apart from the -- so you can see we now have a company which probably is about twice the size. It's not just a matter of contracting for product tankers is high. In terms of invoicing over the next 5 years, we don't expect this cyclicality. We think we have doubled the company structurally. And of course, this whole thing then not specifically the head office, but the infrastructure in those 3 units are simply subscale. And so we're going to throw probably -- well, it depends Mr. Chairman, if the Board so decides that we should go forward with, we are -- I'm really trying to sell this. So we have some future decisions. There are a few others, but this is the single one, most important strategic for us to take and do it the right way. So is scaling all about bricks-and-mortar and equipment? No, it's not. And if you think about us, going after acquisitions after broader product portfolio, after numerous brands, numerous operating models. Suddenly, this comes with a different model and a different governance. And we -- Fredrik is proud about how avoidance of impairment and so am I. What has been the secret for avoiding impairments other than being reasonable in terms of acquiring companies? We have put the acquired companies focus and development ahead of synergies, right? We have not overly -- I think, Tim, you was described today. We have not overly interfered in telling you how to run your business. And that gives a very nice feel for joining the family. We always say, well, look at us, and there is a menu of options. If you want to use them, use them. Our operations development team that has been working here. You met some of them. They are available to the rest of the company as well. But we don't throw them on them unless they are asked for. So it's a really nice model. But eventually, you got to ask yourself, is this scalable? Does it come a point in the growth of the company where the complexity starts to get a little bit too high? And we decided for various reasons, but this was a good time to think through. I would -- if I would catch it in one word, I would say the operating model. That is, how do we function, from the market, from the customer to our brands, to our sales organization, to the financial reporting? And I don't think we're going to end up in dramatically reshuffling the whole company a year from now. But I think we will develop a sense of a road plan for how do we need to keep this complexity side under some level of control in order to not end up in just being outgrown in all dimensions. So you see a number of headlines here. The operating model is the key. And one of the reasons that we thought the time to deal with this was now is that Nish Patel, who is somewhere there, as you met many times running the Food & Water division. This is a difficult process, and it needs to start with the customer, and it needs to build the confidence internally that we are doing a good business decision on this. And Nish has accepted to lead this process over the next 1.5 years, and I'm very happy to that. And you will not hear a lot about it. We always feel that the laundry is cleaned behind the stage and we talk about the business and the customer. But you should know that we are working through this a little bit, addressing this question in order to continue to grow. So how does the growth look like going forward? So I'm going to give you all the detailed sales numbers for the next 5 years. Okay. You remember in Copenhagen 2 years ago. A lot of you were a little bit sort of concerned in how do we read all these projects and the Oceanbirds and the beer concentrates. And we were all over the place. So from a divisional point of view, it was a little bit hard. So we tried to create a bit of a model to describe our growth in a different way. And so we did the 3 buckets of growth. And most people kind of liked it, thought it was an interesting way to look. It's not a financial reporting system. I said, you will hear every year how we're doing on this. So we stick into that promise. So this is a little update. And for those of you who have not been part of this, the logic goes like this. On the Evolve side, we said we are pretty comfortable with our traditional business in Alfa Laval, take the service business. We like it. We continue to do with it. It is the same business it's always been. It's our core asset fluid handling and a number of other things that we've done for years and decades, nothing's changed. It's just good business practice. Let's drive the Evolve in a good way. We like it. It's the foundation of the company. We have certain parts of our portfolio of existing technology that is applicable into the energy transition. The heat pump side is such a thing, right? We don't need to reinvent. And so there is an acceleration thing that comes from the discussions we've been having around biofuels, and we've been having around a number of the trends that we've been looking at. So we can argue about what is the underlying structural growth in those. But in our mind, what we were trying to tell you is that, if those things develop in a way, it may potentially possibly, everything else being equal and with a little bit of luck, we might have a slightly higher growth rate in this bucket, right? That was the argument. No promises, only a way to make it a little bit easier. And then we had a whole bunch of new initiatives in new areas, in new technology. We have never done wind propulsion for ships before. We didn't know that market. We didn't know if we could get the system to work. We don't know how many is going to make it. We didn't know the engineering drawings for it. We didn't know how to manufacture it. But we decided that, from where we were and the customers that we had and the solutions they were asking for, we thought we were in a unique position to try to test a few things here. So this is -- and you tested personally, the beer concentrate 2 years ago and -- to just get a flavor. And I think we are -- we might sell the first system beginning next year, I hope. That is -- I mean, this doesn't make any difference on the top line as such, but this was the logic behind the things, right? So let's take them 1 by 1, where we were and where we are. And what you will see is the numbers in 2022 when we first launched this. And I was a bit nervous because what's going to happen? Years later, somebody is going to hold me accountable for this whole thing. How is this going to work, right? So -- but you will see the '22 number and the '24 number. So it's not a CAGR number, it's the 2 years, okay? Are you ready? All right. So do you think we grew in Evolve? You think somewhat, right? Okay, somewhat. Okay. So here is Evolve. It's 25% over the 2 years. I think for the slow-growing laggard business of old traditional engineering industry. That's not too bad, not too shabby as Fredrik's predecessor would have said. And so we were SEK 40 billion at the time. In 2024 LTM, we are at SEK 50 billion. And anybody who can guess what this product is will get a beer. If you're not employed by Talwar. You get a beer. It's the top part there. Okay. Very good. You may get a second chance on something more complicated. So this is what we saw on the Evolve. On the Expand. Fortunately, I'm happy to say that we grew a little bit faster. So the Expand part, despite the fact that there are some ups and downs and difficulties to read the pace and difficulties to deal with the scaling on each individual thing. We're actually 50% plus. So a different shift in taste in this bucket that we gone from '15 to '22, so it's kind of -- I'm not going to ask you what product this is, you don't get a beer for it. But -- so that sort of -- so when I saw that number, it was like, yes, okay. So then the question is what happened to the Explore bucket? It was not very big, 2022. It's still not very big. But remember, the comment at the time, we said the reason we started it, I think about 2021 or so, we think there is about a SEK 10 billion revenue opportunity by 2030. That's kind of -- that's why we were doing it, right? We're not doing it to generate SEK 1 billion or something like that. And so here's where we are. It was SEK 1 billion at the time. It's still not changing the world, but it's new. And the nice thing with the small revenue number, it's easier to double it than when you have a big revenue number. So it's actually moving. The digital side is moving. The single-use separator, which we developed just around that and put to the market, is growing nicely. The Oceanbird is developing as a technology project nicely. The hydrogen applications you've seen downstairs earlier today, in terms of the customer interaction and what we think we potentially can solve for, we still feel good about. Energy storage, more complicated than we thought. So the Revos beer concentrate, it's still a cool idea. A lot of breweries like it. Some time has passed and we haven't sold it. Next year, we will sell one. Will it -- so what we said was everything will not succeed. We are placing our bets in things that we think make sense for us and our customers, and we will allow ourselves to fail a few and cut a few off. But our read is that we are still on the path towards the SEK 10 billion, and I remind you that a big part of the SEK 10 billion is in wind propulsion. You will not see it in our accounts because it's a 50-50 joint venture, so it will be a minority. It will be handled differently in terms of consolidation, I think. But nevertheless, we will take the benefit of including that in the -- we might get to SEK 10 billion anyway who knows? But okay, so that is the Explore side. Then the question is, are we betting the firm, right? Are we risk your investment now than before? Are we in an aggressive way exposing us and our shareholders to excessive risk in new technology? And the answer is, yes, we increased the risk. But I don't think we're betting the company. Or rather, we are not. And I think the best way to look at it is on the CapEx side, right? And this is the CapEx distribution between the 3 buckets. And as I think you've seen and heard, we continue to drive our business in Evolve. It's our foundation. It keeps our margins. It keeps our growth. So we are super happy on that. We are a little bit heavier on the expense side with a 50% growth. That sort of goes without saying that it requires a certain capital investment. And the Explore side is 5%, right? And then annual budget of CapEx of SEK 3 billion, that would put a number of about SEK 150 million. I think. I did the math, yes. And so -- if all of that doesn't come through, so be it. We think that is a managed risk exposure into some new opportunities that 10 years from now may prove very, very important for us as a company. So that's kind of where it is. Where is this all taking us? Some people already back in Copenhagen 2 years ago ran the calculation and came to the SEK 100 billion. And I'm not giving anything else than a conclusion when we look at where we are in the structural growth phases, in how we see our opportunities in the Explore bucket. If we add the fact that our firing power on the balance sheet for some additional M&As in the years to come, I would be somewhat disappointed if we don't get to the SEK 100 billion by 2030. That's the path we're on. Are we immune against geopolitics? No. Are we immune against an increase to war situation in Europe? No. Are we immune against tariffs in U.S.? Probably not immune. So we can all -- you have to make your assessment about what you see. But our business planning is not based on the world falling apart. Our business planning is based under reasonable conditions under a reasonable development. We are -- the reason we are scaling and spending another SEK 6 billion in the coming years is that we are in a scaling process. And we're going to stick to that business plan until the market tells us otherwise. Okay, not so hard. Is that all then? I think there's been some reflections during this day on the importance of -- I think the importance of the organizational model that we went into has been fundamental to achieve what we're doing. The way we dealt with the people issues in many ways, including what Fredrik referred to, in terms of when do we pull the plug? When do we put next quarter ahead of next year? I've said it to you a number of times, that any monkey could bring our margins up in Alfa Laval with a percentage point to 2. It's not -- that's not the problem for next year. But our question is how to get to the SEK 100 billion under a solid profitability development? And that's the maneuvering that we think is needed for a shareholder who has a 10-year perspective. For hedge funds with a quarter perspective, it's a different story, but that's not my customer. So this is -- we think a lot about the application side, how we drive the R&D long term, how our organization is fit for the scaling that we need. And without the commitment of the people, including the ones you met on the shop floor, including the ones that today is living in the hardest financial conditions in these units, right, after EUR 100 million and the customers sort of slack just as we were ramping, it's a hard situation. But you can still see the energy and drive in getting this business to work. And they've done it fantastically over a difficult period. We're going to get into the better quarters in the near future also in this area. So we'll keep it together. Growth doesn't happen, you generate your growth. It's not a matter of just the growing population and everything else is being solved. It's the dedication, it's capital, it's driving the organization, it's the people, the way we look at it. And so that's the zone we are in. Sorry. We have managed carefully on the product portfolio. And there will not be another beer. But -- I can see. But the -- at the end of the day, we have no future without the right product portfolio. And that -- and we know that, today, we are different than 10 years ago. And 10, 20 years from now, it's not the current product portfolio that's going to cut it. It still exists, but we need to evolve. And we -- that's why we are working hard with the product portfolio. We haven't talked about it for a long time, but when we created the possibility to move to here, the first decision that we had to take was to sell the air heat exchanges. We decided to exit that business, cut it away. It liberated the whole way, we could think about the focus in the business and the way we could build up the manufacturing unit on high quality and high value add versus an assembly business that had completely different characteristics. So the move that we did in 2021 was also a portfolio move. And we've done a number of those. And we have some divestment candidates also for the future, not because they are low performers. But there are some businesses where we have a nice business of SEK 300 million and 15% margin and we are not world leaders. And we are not developing the way we're developing here, and there may be a better parent. Or we have to change our growth strategy into building it for real. So there is a whole host of portfolio issues that we're going to deal with in both an acquisitive, organic growth, but potentially also some divestment cases down the road. And so this picture will look slightly different 10 years from now. Are you all thinking about what it is? No, you're not. But here is the high-speed separator. This also has high-speed separator, the disks. This is tank cleaning equipment. I think it is Scanjet, right? Scanjet, we acquired. Here are a couple of valves that is in the Fluid Handling business, membrane solution. The plate, just not to recognize the distribution patterns. And the decanter with hard metal cutting on the top to handle the solid friction. Well, it's a whole host of things. Never mind, I thought you wanted to know. All right. One of the things and the reason we gather here today was to give you our picture of the energy transition. Everybody, including the investment community was super hyped 2 years ago on hydrogen and whatnot. And then we all get into doom and gloom, and we think it's not happening. And I think we have a balanced view on the energy transition. The reality of it is that our pipeline on clean energy projects and the project pipeline in a number of verticals is on an all-time high from a low level. It's not on the level to get to certain climate target, but it is still substantiating the next step in the journey. So we see it happening pretty much across the board at a slower pace than we would like and a slower pace that the policymakers would like. We also wanted to be clear that we are not betting the firm on any given vertical. We are exposing ourselves to take the opportunity with us. We think it's the prudent thing to do, the right thing to do for the long term. But there are limits as to how far we commit into capital and resources before we know that the S curve and penetration curve is going to happen for real. We also know that whatever happens in this area, increased energy consumption and energy efficiency will form a basis of what needs to happen. And so there, we have no hesitations. It's all in. You've partly seen it here, you will see it in other areas as well. So we are taking a modest positive view on the development of, let's say, this Expand part of our business over the next 5 years. That's our summary. You make your own cut on that. If I would just ask a last picture and a brief summary on an 8-year journey. There is a way to summarize that to a pretty lazy agenda. I think we made 4 fundamental decisions, one every second year, if you like. And I think these are the four that matters when I summarize it. One is the fact that we've done massive investments into our core technology to ensure technology and market leadership. You've seen it here, you could see it in 5 other places around the world. We dramatically changed how we looked at CapEx and competitive barriers. 2016, we had a policy of CapEx equal to depreciation, which left us with SEK 600 million per year. That's less than we invested in warehouses this year. We are -- we are 5x that level. And it was a change we decided to go for. We took the bet, it works. We have placed our bets on future technologies. And we'll see how well we place those bets, but we felt we had to make those decisions. So they were not simple decisions. They were, of a world of opportunities, we needed to nail down and define how do we play the cards in this? You've seen it in Marine. You see it in Food & Water and you sent in Energy division. And so -- and you see it beyond the Explore bucket, if you like. And those bets were important for us to make early, and we monitor them. We changed our M&A strategy. I think before, M&A was mainly a way to secure growth. Today and the acquisitions you've seen, including the Desmet, including StormGeo, including a whole host of things, it's not uniquely to secure growth. We have enough growth anyway, so we are not overpaying to get additional growth on top of what we have. But what we are paying for is capabilities that we think are useful. And so you will see strategically aligned, to the degree we succeed to convince sellers that we are the right buyer and they will sell at the right price, you will see, I think, strategically a rather disciplined M&A flow in the future. And then lastly, the service side. And I discussed at dinner yesterday. I don't know if something has happened structurally other than the long-term change that many customers don't have the same plant engineering resources anymore. So they outsource more of how to run the plant today than before. But I think we have strategically changed our position in service, in mindset, in leadership, in training, in recruiting, in digital tools, in multi-brand access to competitive products that are installed on the same site, and the list goes on. So I think we have -- we believe that typical service should be just somewhat higher growth rate than capital sales because the installed base is growing. The level that we are at now, we are a little bit sort of -- we're not -- we are a bit surprised that it's running as fast as it can. And the question is, how will it run in the future? We don't see a temporary post-COVID or that type of thing. That's not what we see. We see a structural growth on the service. Will it hold on this level? Possibly not. But we still believe that it should probably grow faster than capital sales over the next couple of cycles on an average. So the service side and the service strategy has been fundamental to us. And with that, thank you very much. We have 5 minutes for a possible question. And you only allowed -- you can't do it like in the earnings call and ask 3 questions, but you can do one. You are first. Okay.
Unknown Analyst
analystFirst of all, yes, very good Capital Markets Day, and you presented very well how you grow and what the strategy is. You have done your homework on the plant efficiency. There are amazing opportunities in data center and nuclear and marine and food. At the same time, you still run a target of 15% margin. And I wonder, you probably speak to the Board of Directors, and you sit together and say, and they say, "Well, you now have 17%." And you say, "No, we should only guide for 15%." What's the dynamic there? I don't fully understand it. You clearly have the setup to go higher. So what is holding you back? Or are you just super conservative and you have no drive in pushing the market with higher targets?
Tom Erixon
executiveThe first thing I would say is we could never have done what we've done over the last year without a really strong alignment with the Board. We have a Board that is as long term as us, if not more. And so we are not typically pushed into another 0.5%. It's clear to the Board, it's clear to me, it's clear to you. We could manage -- we could decide to manage the profitability as our primary objective. And we are not. We are running the company as if it was our own money. I never make a decision -- and I think the Board is sort of in the same mindset. We don't make decisions that are right for somebody else but not for us if it was our company. And so what it takes, and this is what's important for this team, when you are given the opportunity but also the responsibility to manage the business for the long term, you cannot fall into the trap of being lazy in the short term because you don't have to change. So that's why a lot of the restructuring actions and margin actions on areas that are not performing, I think we are razor sharp in attacking it in order for us to take the real strategic costs for investments, R&D projects, factory, OpEx, things on how we operate that we believe will pay off in the future. So looking at our -- there are very few people who talk about the return on equity. But the return on equity on our organic business of over 50% is telling you something around how we generate returns on the capital. And that to us -- so to go to 17% just as a target means that you're going to ask me why we at 16.5%. And I'm going to tell you because we think hydrogen is important, then we're not making any money. So I'm not going to be forced into that position. It doesn't mean that we -- and we always said 15%, we don't consider it the target that we should achieve. We consider it the floor to give us the strategic flexibility to run the business long term in a good way. So that's how the dialogue goes. And I cannot enough express how -- because our Chairman is here. But also we have been given a lot of trust. And it wouldn't work for us if our employees wasn't where they are and where the Board isn't where they are. And so we are quite pleased. Okay. Number two.
Unknown Analyst
analystCould you give us a little bit more color on why you think service growth will outpace capital sales?
Tom Erixon
executiveWhy it outpace?
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. I think it was one of your final comments.
Tom Erixon
executiveYes. No, I can't. Well, there is one possible explanation, is that we were not good enough in the past. We were not penetrating our installed base enough in the past. We were not putting enough priority on the leadership of the service team. In the past, we were not serving multiple products outside our own product range in the past. And we did not have an aging fleet in the past with an increased installed base on the ships. And we did not have 50 companies selling pure ballast and scrubber systems without any marine experience and without any global service system. And then suddenly, ship owners need a little bit of help from Sameer and the team. So there are a lot of things coming together here. And we're not the only company in the world in the industry who's growing the service reasonably high at the moment. But this is without the acquisition, I think there is something structurally that we have done that is bringing us back to where we should be of actually owning our installed base and serving it well. So thank you. We take that maybe one more, and then -- yes.
Unknown Analyst
analystCan you reach the SEK 100 billion by 2030 without M&A? And why have you not aligned the 5% growth target with this ambition?
Tom Erixon
executiveWell, make our spreadsheet and put in 5% and see where you end up from 72 this year. So I don't think it's an alignment question of having to change the annual. But I look at it like the reason we feel -- we need to be clear why we are spending billions of money, right? Because we have invested a lot, and we are fit for purpose on the level we are. So we should be done, right, and we are not. So we think we need to give some confidence in terms of where we are heading in order to -- because that's where we base our investment decisions at the end of the day. The way we feel about it is that the Exploration bucket has some real opportunities in it, but we don't know. So you can put it at 10%, you can put it at 2%, and that it is, but it's a span. If you look at our firing power in the balance sheet, you get at least easily -- from today and including a couple of years forward, we recently get SEK 2 million, SEK 3 billion or something like that. Well, you can run our sales multiples, what we need in order to buy high-quality companies. But you get to a number that could be very small or up to SEK 10 billion maybe in terms of revenue. And then you have the ongoing growth rates on the existing businesses, and you have the potential issue of what's going to hand in the renewables and in the energy transition in the Expand side. Will it drive harder and faster than a normal annual growth rate? You play with those things, everything is not going to work. Everything -- well, it will, we will go higher. That's clear. And so we felt that this was, in all traditional Alfa Laval modestly, that was a reasonable thing to be transparent about.
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