Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

June 1, 2021

NASDAQ US Health Care conference_presentation 30 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

John Kreger

analyst
#1

All right. Good afternoon, everyone. We're going to get started with our next session at the William Blair Growth Stock Conference. Thank you all for joining us. Next session is Align Technology. I'm John Kreger, the analyst at Blair that covers Align. And with me are John Morici, CFO of the company; and Shirley Stacy, the Head of IR. So thanks, guys, both for joining us.

John Morici

executive
#2

You're welcome, John.

Shirley Stacy

executive
#3

Good to be here.

John Kreger

analyst
#4

All right. We're going to do a typical fireside chat over the next 30 minutes. Just quickly to remind you, if anyone wants to see our conflicts of interest or other disclosures, feel free to see our website. I will be directing the questions to John and Shirley, but if any of you on the line do have questions, please send it to me in the Q&A feature, and I'll do my best to work it into the discussion. So with that, let's get going.

John Kreger

analyst
#5

John, the first one is just to kind of dig into the notion of what normal looks like post-pandemic? I remember a year ago, we were incorrectly assuming the consumer was going to be quite impaired, and it would be a challenging environment for you. And clearly, that was not the case. So now I thought maybe we could flip it around. If you think about that consumer that's been stuck in their house, not able to go on vacation, sort of itching to spend a little bit. That turned out to be a pretty good environment for Align. Do you worry that as we open up and particularly, things like travel start to resume that, that could represent some sort of a -- maybe an incremental threat to demand? How do you guys think about what that new normal looks like?

John Morici

executive
#6

Yes, John, it's a good question. I think when you look at our business, there's certainly going to be puts and takes. If you go back prior to the pandemic, I mean, obviously, in an underpenetrated market, huge market opportunity, whether you're talking on the traditional orthodontic case starts or kind of the greater more general dentistry opportunity that we have. And that was there before the pandemic, it's there during the pandemic and, certainly, as we recover and get past that opportunity is still there. So I think you look at it as -- and some of the puts and takes that you're going to have, you're going to have offices opening. Great. That's a good thing. We know that if we went back a year ago when offices were actually shut down, closed, couldn't go to the office, volumes would be impacted. We were impacted. Doctors didn't have cases, didn't have patients coming through, couldn't do cases. There was certainly an impact. So as these practices open up, that's great. That's a good thing to us. It also is going to lead itself to people going out and doing a lot of other things. As you said, people might be going vacation or spending in other places, you're going to have those trade-offs. But I think when you really look at the fundamentals of what the opportunity is, you've got on one side, a traditional orthodontic market, which is every year, 15 million or so new patients coming into the marketplace, primarily teen. 11 million, 12 million of those are teen. They're kind of coming out no matter what. I mean, COVID or no COVID, there's going to be volume associated with them. We're in a very low penetrated standpoint, as we've talked about before, where we have the ability through our doctors to do 85%, 90% of those cases and yet, we're still essentially single-digit market share everywhere on the teen side. So huge opportunity on the teen side. Those are teens that are just kind of coming into the market or even in some cases, preteens coming into the market that need some type of orthodontic care. And then you still have that general dentistry, the general market opportunity, where those are the 500-million-plus potential patients that are out there. Those people are out and about. We've been advertising through them during the crisis and now into the recovery. Those potential patients are out. Yes, they have money to spend. They're spending it on treatment. But they're also -- we also look at those as they're coming in for teeth cleaning. They're coming in for some type of care as we can work with doctors to be able to help drive that digital adoption, drive the opportunities within the doctor offices where they get the treatment. Maybe they haven't gone out for a while. They get some type of filling or just a cleaning, that doctor could be able to show them how their teeth have moved. That doctor could be able to show them what teeth straightening could look like now that they're out and about, and they're going to be totally taking off their mask and showing their smile and so on. There's still a huge opportunity there. So that's why we continue to invest throughout this time period during the crisis and into the recovery, really one of the only companies in the dental space to do that. Because we believe in the opportunity. And through COVID and through this time period, I think, if anything, it's opened people up to being more flexible and having choices. I mean, we're doing a call like this over Zoom call. And I think that's just kind of the new norm. You're going to have to adapt and I think our product and our process lends itself to that.

John Kreger

analyst
#7

Got it. Great. One quick follow-up to that. The -- as you said, that single-digit penetration rate on the 11 million to 12 million teen cases, that's just, I think, a very, very compelling part of the long-term story for Align. When you guys talk to your customers, particularly your orthodontist customers, what's the biggest sticking point to prevent that from going to 15%, 20%, 30% penetration?

John Morici

executive
#8

I think there's probably 2 parts to that, John, that I would say. One is upfront price. I mean the pricing for Invisalign is more expensive than it is for wires and brackets and materials for that. So I think the doctors would look at that and say, okay, I've got to pay more for Invisalign. But when they actually factor things together and understand the total cost that they would incur with reduced chair time, less overhead and so on, they would understand that the dynamics really turn in the favor of using Invisalign from an overall productivity standpoint and, ultimately, profitability. So I think pricing is one of the first hurdles to get them through to understand the total price. And then I think just their comfort in order to be able to do -- use Invisalign versus what they've maybe grown up with, with wires and brackets. They would have been trained on wires and brackets, most likely. They would have been spending most of their career using wires and brackets. And I think it just comes to a -- just an understanding of the product. And it's up to us to try to educate them, try to get them to start with some cases, get them trained, get them to do more and more cases and really feel the comfort. Because like I said, from a product that we -- if we could help them do 85%, 90% of the cases, we shouldn't be at single digits. We've got to be able to overcome that. And that's what makes the opportunity so great for us and why we're so excited about the opportunities on teen because we know where we can go to, and we know we have a huge opportunity, and that's why we talk a lot about what we're doing around the teen space.

John Kreger

analyst
#9

Okay. Before we leave the sort of new normal discussion. So as you said, we're unfortunately getting pretty used to using some of these digital interfaces. Just curious if you -- is Align rethinking its model at all as both your customers and consumers are a little bit more used to working in digital format? So I'm thinking about fewer office visits? Do you rethink where you do fabrication? Where you do treatment planning? Helping your customers sort of redesign their office? I'm just curious if you're kind of rethinking your strategies at all?

John Morici

executive
#10

I think we're looking at our strategy and then saying, okay, how do we continue to evolve and adapt to these new surroundings? So for example, you have, as you said, people are -- they know that they're going to want to have more flexibility. Doctors want to have flexibility in this world that they've gone through as well as patients. And being able to adapt to that changed world. And so what do we have that can help with that? We've created -- before COVID, we had been working through creating this digital platform, creating a mechanism to be able to help doctors digitize their practices to really use digital dentistry and drive that within their practices. So we've done a lot around investments on visualization, helping doctors be able to access things more remote and check on care and so on. Helping patients visualize where their teeth are going to be after treatment and the progress that they can make. We continued those investments. In fact, it accelerated those investments throughout this COVID crisis and beyond. We continue to market and drive investments in the marketing space to educate potential patients about the opportunities. And also letting doctors know through education and so on, on how they can utilize the digital platform and create more of an understanding of how they move from analog to digital and the journey that this undertakes. So programs that we had, that we've really invested more on things like ADAPT, the Align Digital and Practice Transformation. That's about taking all the assets that we have around our platform, the digital process for ClinCheck, the great products that we have, the investments that we make in visualization, the things that we're doing around driving that consumer demand and so on. And being able to have people come to the doctor's office, and really try to take them from the analog world to the digital world. And we have a lot of doctors who are coming in really around the globe to try to take this journey. And really, it starts with an iTero and the digital process right at the front end. And we know as we go through this, we've seen, in all cases, that it drives productivity within those doctors' office. But as we drive that demand and help those doctors bring in more patients who want Invisalign in their offices, that productivity turns into profitability. And we've seen this. We saw this kind of accelerate -- this trend that was happening prior to COVID, and we would see that this has accelerated as we've gone into COVID. Doctors don't want their practices to be shut down. They want to have alternatives to whatever comes up in the future, they don't want to have to relive this. And I think us as consumers, we've been forever changed as a result of COVID and expect to have a certain amount of flexibility in how we want this treatment going forward.

John Kreger

analyst
#11

Got it. Okay. I just got a good question from the audience. I'll just throw that out now, which is talk about how your DSO relationships are working? How have they evolved over time? And to be blunt, how are you trying to sort of counter the threat of alternatives, particularly, sort of lower cost alternatives coming into some of these higher volume customers?

John Morici

executive
#12

Well, I think DSOs are something that's happening within the industry. I mean some of these dental practices consolidate and companies kind of consolidate these practices. And it's just a way of life within this industry. And for us, when we think about the benefits that this bring, our system, our platform, the way we want doctors to go-to-market is perfect for DSOs. You think about ADAPT, it's kind of individual practices. DSOs are ADAPT kind of on steroids from the standpoint that you sell into a DSO you're selling, many times you have an iTero that they purchase and they purchase for their doctors. It's the platform that they're buying into. The digital platform that we have, the visualization, the training that goes in, the marketing that we do and all the local marketing that they do, it's a very good combination. And remember, a lot of these DSOs, they're private equity-owned. They're all about return on investment, return on capital. And we can prove to them. And why we see success with those DSOs is, they're seeing the returns, they're seeing the benefits. And when we look at DSOs, I think sometimes that gets lost or makes the headline is, "Oh, that's at a lower price. It's a lower ASP." Don't think of it that way. Think of it as from a gross margin standpoint, it's very efficient for us to serve those customers. And certainly, from an op margin standpoint, it's also efficient where we get the economies of scale. Some of these DSOs are 500, 700 practices. And we get some economies when we help with training, with marketing, with other go-to-market activities that we don't have to spend. They're spending locally there. So it's the way the industry is going and we're definitely a part of that. But it really plays into our digital story, our digital conversion that we're trying to bring to this market. And DSO is our way to do that.

John Kreger

analyst
#13

Okay. So DSOs doubled as a percent of your volumes, that wouldn't be a problem. You could -- that still works in your sort of margin calculus?

John Morici

executive
#14

Yes. If they double that, that would not be a problem for us and they would in fact drive, in other cases, some efficiencies as a result of that.

John Kreger

analyst
#15

Great. That's helpful. Next thing I wanted to cover, talk about your demand funnel. Remind us just how that's working and just how much visibility out into the future do you have at any given point in time?

John Morici

executive
#16

Well, the demand funnel and how we generate that is very important for us. Obviously -- and we made the decision really as one of the companies throughout the pandemic and recovery to continue making investments to create that consumer awareness. We knew people would be on their phones or on their computers or watching TV. And we wanted to be top of mind. We wanted to make sure people were aware. It's kind of the -- it's kind of the Zoom effect in some ways where like people see themselves on the computer. Well, now they think, okay, where can I go to try to straighten my teeth and improve my smile, and we wanted Invisalign to be a part of that. And so certainly, we start with that. We see what people do with that advertising. Do they come to our website? Do they search on Invisalign? Do they talk to our concierge team? How do they interact and become aware? And traditionally, we had been -- U.S. has been a predominant market where we spent. And what we've been able to see as we've gone through the pandemic and now we've seen some of the volume come back and so on, it's given us opportunities to make investments in other places that we haven't done as much consumer advertising and marketing on. So the U.K. and France and Germany and then trying things down in South America and Japan and ANZ, places where we haven't traditionally spent as much. Where we're able to, we're actually seeing tremendous responses from -- just an awareness standpoint, consumers excited about our products. They want to know more. They want to -- we want to ultimately get them to a doctor, orthodontist or general dentist to be able to talk about treatment. And then if that doctor sells Invisalign, they can take them down that journey and try to get that conversion. So we're looking at all parts of this from the top of the funnel all the way down. But in the end, when we spend on whatever type of top of the funnel spend that we have: regular marketing, media, influencers or whatever, we have to be able to see that return. And that return on investment is ultimately volume. And we like what we see. We like trying different things. COVID has given us the opportunity to try different things, and we've seen really good responses.

John Kreger

analyst
#17

So where are you seeing the best return on investment these days?

John Morici

executive
#18

It varies. I mean you still see great return in the U.S., where it's such a big market, and we're coming from a low market share. But you see it in other places. We've seen great EMEA growth by trying some of these investments. We've seen it in ANZ and Japan and across APAC, really good responses. And so in success, we're going to continue to make the investments that make sense and drive the volume. But it really comes from, John, every place that we sell-in is just an underpenetrated market. So we have this huge market opportunity. If we can drive a little bit more awareness and drive that top of the funnel, as we -- as that works its way through our doctors, and we sell to those doctors with the best products and the best service and the best scanner, it really just works its way together to find the right equation.

John Kreger

analyst
#19

And can you remind us when your visibility drops off? Is it just fairly stable and linear as we go out in time? Or is there a drop-off? Do you have good visibility in the second half of the year at this point, for example?

John Morici

executive
#20

It's a best visibility as we can. We look a lot at -- the first half of this year, it's tough to look at the year-over-year comparisons, as we've talked about, because of such of an impact from last year. We look at this year. And really, as we've gone through the recovery is making decisions, making investments and understanding our growth opportunity based on what's happened previously? What does the past month look like? What does the past 3 months look like? And then make investments in the future and say, "Okay, here's what we expect some of those returns to be." So really, your question kind of gets to why -- essentially, why did we guide and why did we give some of that information? We guided at the last earnings call, the $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion in revenue. We wanted to give -- after 3 record quarters, we wanted to give some guidance so that the street could understand kind of where we're projecting. We also wanted, to your point, to understand and talk a little bit about the second half. So we talked about what that meant from a second half standpoint. So people would understand how that progressed through the year. But also, we want to talk about and make sure people understand, and it's what's been highlighted on this call is, we continue to have to make investments. We have to make investments to drive growth. And in an underutilized and underpenetrated market, we know that we have to continue to make investments. Some of the marketing ones that we talked about, still adding sales to drive that conversion. And of course, we need the best products and process to be able to help bring that all together. So we have to keep investing. And that's why we talked about kind of for the year, think of it 23.5% to 24.5% op margin. So people would understand that we still need to drive this growth.

John Kreger

analyst
#21

Great. A typical question that we get, and I'm sure you get it a lot too, is, we're going on 4 years since some of the IP opened up and the competitors -- competitive barriers came down. What are you seeing in terms of what's really enabled you to so far not be impacted by that? Because I think pricing erosion is probably the biggest investor concern out there. But it doesn't seem like you've really had any evidence of that yet. How does that play out in your view? And how do you sort of prevent that cheaper DTC option from resulting in some erosion in your offering?

John Morici

executive
#22

Yes. It's a good question. And really, as you said, there's always questions about competition and how do we grow in spite of competition and so on. And look, we've been able to grow like the numbers that we have growing on big numbers and then growing them even more. I think it comes down to having the best products. We've invested $2-plus billion in our portfolio of products that we have, both in terms of the systems and software that we have as well as the actual product and being able to develop the best scanner, develop the best platform, to be able to have an alternative that is so important for doctors. Because in the end, doctors want to have products that are predictable and reliable, help them be able to finish cases in a predictable, reliable way. And having competition come in that can't provide that, it just lends itself for those doctors to stay with Invisalign. Or if they try, many times coming back because they realize that some of the products that we have with Invisalign first, being able to treat cases down to kids that are 6 or 7 years old to expand the arches to be able create space for their teeth -- permanent teeth to come in or mandibular advancement, which will align your jaw as well as straighten your teeth, competition doesn't have products like that. And it stands the reason why they wouldn't because it's -- we've been in the market for 25 years. And to have so many cases and understanding of how to move teeth in a predictable, reliable, safe way isn't easy. And I think, to start with your products and the investments that we've made around those products, the brand that we have, Invisalign is so well-known in the industry. Everybody, whether you're in this business or not has probably seen something about Invisalign and knows that it moves your teeth with clear aligner. So the brand is unique. We're driving patients to those doctors with the investments that we're making, no one else is doing that. And then I think when you think about the scale that it takes, this is not -- this is a mass customized business. This is one where we're producing upwards of 750,000 unique aligners a day. And no company does this. No company in the world does this, let alone in the dental space. So I think when you factor all that together, kind of the brand, the product, the process, the investments we've made, the capacity that you need, very difficult for companies to come in into the space. Although they want to, and we get that why some competitors have gotten out of their wires and brackets business and went into clear aligner because they understand where the future is. It's clear where the future is going. And it's not an if, it's a when. But it still takes investment. And I think other companies, as they get into it, start to realize this. But we don't worry about some of the competitors and some of the things that they'll talk about. We focus on what we can control. And that's been our focus as a company, that's what got us through the crisis and the recovery, focus on what we control, which is providing the best product and services to our customers, doing things in a way that gives them the best outcome for their patients. Doing it in a way that advertises and lets consumers know that there's alternatives. And the last thing I'd leave you with, too, is really when you look at competition in the end, John, you heard me say this before, our competition started with and still is wires and brackets. Let's face it. 80-plus percent of the worldwide cases are still done with wires and brackets. We're quickly moving with Invisalign to become more and more part of the other. But still the majority of cases, especially teens, maybe 90% of the cases, so it's less about competition in the clear aligner space. While it's good from the standpoint that there's never been in a time in our history that there's more awareness in clear aligner than there is right now. Everybody knows something about clear aligners, consumers as well as doctors. But I think when you look at it, it's less about share shifting across clear aligner companies and more about less and less wires and brackets and all the things that we can do as a company to try to get it to be more Invisalign.

John Kreger

analyst
#23

Okay. Follow-up on price. Do you have pretty good mechanism to monitor and market pricing for clear aligners, not what you're charging the orthodontists, but what they are effectively charging their customers? And if so, is that an upward or downward trend?

John Morici

executive
#24

I would say we do have good mechanism to understand through our sales team and surveys and other work that we see. So we see some of that pricing that they charge. And I would say on balance, there's probably a downward pressure on that pricing. I think especially for more of the moderate-to-mild cases, some of the pricing that doctors maybe were charging, they've had to come down and get to maybe be more competitive. On the comprehensive cases, the more challenging teen cases and so on, the price to the end consumer hasn't changed all that much. But we're very aware. And we also work with our doctors to make sure that we understand that equation, that even at a lower price for some of those less complicated cases, to work through the process that we have to digitize their workflow, drive productivity within those practices. And if they get more potential patients to their practice, they can actually see growth and profitability. So it's not a loose situation for doctors. Doctors that are willing to change and really adopt this digital platform that we're talking about, even in cases where they might charge less on those lower -- those less challenging cases, they can still be very profitable, in fact, increase the profitability for their practice, handling it that way.

John Kreger

analyst
#25

Okay. We only have a few more minutes, but there's a couple of questions I wanted to make sure we get to. Another mix question for you. How should we think about comprehensive versus noncomprehensive? Obviously, that's a different ASP. But from your standpoint, is there a sort of a dollar contribution difference between those 2 different categories?

John Morici

executive
#26

Yes. I mean from a comprehensive standpoint, higher ASP, you're going to see more or less more dollars that you get from a contribution standpoint. But from a rate standpoint, some of our -- the best margin rate that we get are from our non-comprehensive products. Those products don't have additional aligners, in many cases, just the cost to serve is less. And we actually see a margin benefit from things like that. So that's really been our focus as we think about and what we try to provide that financial context is ASP, yes, maybe a starting point, but it's really what's the gross margin dollars and rate that it provides.

John Kreger

analyst
#27

Okay. All right. Maybe the last one, since Joe and you joined, you've really changed the sort of international operating model quite a bit from our perspective to a very centralized model to much more decentralized. Can you just remind us why did you do that? And what's the sort of logical progression of that? Should we be thinking about a lot more fabrication and treatment planning operations all around the world longer term? Or have you kind of built it out the way you want it now?

John Morici

executive
#28

I think what we saw -- and both Joe and I came from like a GE Healthcare world, where that was a large part of the strategy is decentralizing, getting closer to customers. And so we've taken that opportunity that we saw within this space and kind of used that same logic. So I think you'll see more of us trying to get closer to our customers, reduce cycle time. You can reduce freight costs, doing things that are in their own language. I think, treatment planning, getting closer to our doctors, same time zone helps from an NPS standpoint and really helps that interaction with doctors, especially in the language category. And then I think when you look at manufacturing, we know how to manufacture and manufacture at scale. We grew up with kind of one plant. We've added several plants within Mexico. Now expanded into China. We've now talked about expanding into Poland. We know how to grow in this marketplace and do it in a way that provides the right profitability, while meeting our customer demand. So I think you'll see more of that. It's getting closer to our customers, more decentralized, but doing things that still hold the brand, holds the process, holds the controls the right way with utmost quality and utmost satisfaction that we want to be able to provide our customers. But do it in a way that's much more local to their needs. And we think that combination is the right combination going forward, and it's allowed us to grow and still one of our first growth priorities is growing international, and I think this lends itself to that growth.

John Kreger

analyst
#29

Got it. Okay. Well, we're right at time. Let's cut it off there. Congrats again on all the success. Thank you, John. Thank you, Shirley, for the time, and thank you all for listening in. Have a great day, everyone.

John Morici

executive
#30

Have a good day.

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