Alivus Life Sciences Limited (ALIVUS.NS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 22, 2026

NSEI IN Health Care Pharmaceuticals earnings 65 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good evening, and welcome to Alivus Life Sciences Limited Q3 FY '26 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I now hand the conference over to Ms. Soumi Rao from Alivus Life Sciences. Thank you, and over to you, Ms. Rao.

Soumi Rao

executive
#2

Good evening, everyone. I welcome you all to the earnings call of Alivus Life Sciences Limited for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. From Alivus Life Sciences, we have with us Dr. Yasir Rawjee, our MD and CEO; and Mr. Tushar Mistry, our CFO. Our Board has approved the results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. We have released it to the stock exchanges and updated it on our website. Please note that the recording and transcript of this call will be available on the website of the company. Now I'd like to draw your attention to the fact that some of the information shared as part of this call, especially information with respect to our plans and strategy, may contain certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on current expectations, forecasts and assumptions that are subject to risks, which could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements depending upon the economic conditions, government policies and other incidental factors. Such statements should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute of their own judgment. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from these expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. With that, I invite Dr. Yasir Rawjee to say a few words. Thank you, and over to you, Doctor.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#3

Thank you, Soumi. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 FY '26 earnings call. Thank you for joining us, and I would like to extend my warm new year wishes to all of you. Before we discuss the company's quarterly performance, allow me to outline the broader industry landscape that is influencing our business environment. The global pharma industry continues to evolve amid a dynamic macroeconomic and regulatory environment. Demand remains resilient, supported by an aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence and sustained healthcare spending. We are seeing a gradual pickup across generics, APIs and CDMO services, while tighter regulatory scrutiny and supply chain derisking are reinforcing the need for quality compliance and reliable partners. While some parts of the market continue to face near-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the pharma industry remains encouraging. With this, let me draw your attention to our performance for the quarter and 9 months FY '26. For Q3, we reported our highest ever revenue of INR 673 crores, registering a growth of 14.4% Q-o-Q and 4.8% Y-o-Y. Performance during the quarter was strong across the board with business firing on all cylinders. We saw a strong recovery in the CDMO business as new projects began contributing alongside continued momentum from the API Generics business in reg markets such as Europe, Japan, LatAm, ROW and India. Recording robust performance and contributing meaningfully to overall revenue expansion. As expected, GPL business also saw recovery during the quarter. Revenues for 9 months stood at INR 1,863 crores, registering a growth of 7.2%. More importantly, our non-GPL business grew at 16.1% driven by growth across markets. This reflects the underlying strength of our diversified business across geographies, and we expect this to continue its momentum in the overall growth, driven by strong demand across all markets. Moving on to our profits for the quarter. Our gross margin for the quarter was 58.9%, up 330 bps Y-o-Y. Our EBITDA margin for the quarter was 36.4%, up 510 bps Y-o-Y, our highest ever reported quarterly margins. Margins improved on the back of new product launches, favorable product mix and enhanced operational efficiencies. I am pleased to share that our CDMO segment has made a strong recovery, delivering an exceptional performance in Q3 with revenue growth of 100% Q-o-Q and 85.3% Y-o-Y, in line with our expectations for a second half turnaround. This growth was driven by robust traction in the newer CDMO projects, supported by revenue from the regular CDMO projects. Our expansion initiatives at Solapur, Ankleshwar and Dahej are progressing as planned. Our pipeline remains robust with 595 DMF and CEP filings globally as on December 31, 2025. The high potent API portfolio remains on the development path with 27 products in the active grid, representing a total addressable market of $70 billion. Of these 9 are validated, 7 are in advanced stages of development and the remaining 11 products are progressing through lab development stages. Going forward, we continue to expect high single-digit revenue growth for FY '26, driven by strong and profitable expansion across our diversified non-GPL segment and the continued ramp-up of CDMO projects. We remain confident in maintaining healthy margins and expect it to range between 30% to 32% going forward, higher than our earlier guidance of 28% to 30%. This is catalyzed by operational efficiencies and contributions from new product launches, a reflection of the strength and resilience of our business model. So with this, I now turn the floor to our CFO, Tushar Mistry, who will walk you through our financial performance for the quarter in depth. Tushar, over to you.

Tushar Mistry

executive
#4

Thank you, Dr. Yasir. Good evening, everyone. Welcome to our Q3 FY '26 earnings call. Before we take questions from you all, I would like to highlight the key performance updates for the quarter and 9 months ended 31st December 2025. For Q3 FY '26, revenue from operations stood at INR 673 crores, a growth of 14.4% Q-o-Q and 4.8% year-on-year. Gross profit for the quarter was INR 397 crores, up 16.9% quarter-on-quarter and 11.2% year-on-year. Gross margin for the quarter stood at 58.9%, driven by new launches, product mix and operational efficiency. EBITDA for the quarter was at INR 245 crores, up 26.5% Q-o-Q and 22.1% year-on-year. EBITDA margin for the quarter was 36.4%, up 340 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 510 basis points year-on-year. These are the highest margins we have delivered to date. PAT for the quarter stood at INR 150 crores with PAT margins at 22.3%. For 9 months FY '26, revenue from operations stood at INR 1,863 crores, a growth of 7.2% year-on-year. Gross profit for 9 months was at INR 1,067 crores, up 13.6% year-on-year. Gross margins for 9 months stood at 57.3%. EBITDA for 9 months was at INR 620 crores, up 22% year-on-year. EBITDA margin for 9 months was; 33.3%, up 400 basis points year-on-year. PAT for 9 months stood at INR 402 crores with PAT margins at 21.6%. Turning to the therapeutic mix. CVS and CNS continued to lead the growth during the quarter with both therapies contributing 51% to the top line. Chronic therapies contributed 66% of the top line in Q3 FY '26. R&D expenditure for Q3 FY '26 was INR 23 crores, which was 3.4% of our sales. For 9 months FY '26, it was INR 66 crores, 3.5% of our sales. On the balance sheet and cash flow movement, CapEx for the quarter was INR 105 crores and INR 218 crores for 9 months. For FY '26, we now guide the CapEx to be at around INR 450 crores compared to our earlier guidance of INR 600 crores. The balance of INR 150 crores is expected to be deferred to FY '27. We continue to remain a net debt-free company with strong free cash flow generation of INR 221 crores in 9 months FY '26 and the cash and cash equivalent of INR 733 crores on the books as of 31st December 2025. In closing, we are confident that the continued demand and improved performance in H2 FY '26 will help us achieve steady growth for the year. With that, let us open the floor for Q&A.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Pratik Kothari from Unique PMS.

Pratik Kothari

analyst
#6

Sir, one question. I mean, despite -- I mean, if you look at our numbers over the last 2, 3, 4 years, so despite PLI going away, despite R&D spend, which used to be 2.5-odd percent of sales to ramping it up to 3.5%, 4%, we still have been able to maintain margins and now we are kind of highlighting that we'll be able to even go beyond that. So this margin differential from what it was 2, 3 years back to now is much higher than what is being reported because of these things that are happening below. So if you can just highlight what has changed in terms of our business, what is it that we are doing? What is it that we're intending to do, which is helping with all of this?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#7

Okay. So see, there are 3 elements here. One is that CDMO has begun to contribute more. There's also launches that are happening across markets. And usually, newer products tend to get us much higher margins, okay? I mean in the first couple of years, we can expect to see pretty good margins with newer launches, and then it begins to settle down. So we've had both of them. Plus on the operational side as well, we've had -- we performed a lot better in terms of both raw material costs as well as on the operations side. So all this put together, and this is sustainable, okay? I mean the thing is that, that's why we feel confident in guiding to a higher margin. So this is what has done it, right? I mean we were also a little bit -- when PLI went away a couple of years ago, I mean, we were also wondering whether we'll be able to bring it back. But we've been able to do that. And it happened steadily. If you see the last few quarters, right, we have been inching up. And so that confidence is very high that we can do this and continue the momentum.

Pratik Kothari

analyst
#8

Correct. And sir, lastly, on this capacity. So in terms of a breakup, I mean, it seems there is some delay in this capacity coming up. Also in Solapur, it seems the capacity that we had planned or guided earlier, it seems to be much lower, be it on the first backward integration or even the Phase 1. So if you just highlight what has changed, how is -- from what we had said earlier to now?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#9

Solapur is a little delayed. It's not going to impact business because see, more than 80% of our business comes from the reg markets. Okay? And the Ankleshwar, Dahej capacity expansion is well on track. It -- and it will deliver and basically give us the runway for at least the next couple of years for the reg markets. So no challenge there. We have Mohol as well, right, to service the ROW markets and Kurkumbh. So all that put together puts us in a reasonable position with respect to capacity. Solapur is delayed by like 3 months. So we expect Solapur to start operations by July of this year.

Pratik Kothari

analyst
#10

Sir, not delay, I mean, more like first phase, you wanted to do about 600 KL, now we are doing about 450, 500 KL. So even the capacity that we are putting up initially has changed?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#11

Slightly because see, we -- as we moved along, right, there's been a fair amount of mapping that has happened, right? And we've always said that our capacity expansions are going to be calibrated, right? Because there's no point in building too much capacity and not utilizing it. You just create more under-absorption, right? So there, we've sort of gone with a reasonable product mapping that has happened already for Solapur. And as soon as the plant starts in July, we'll be able to see a fair amount of utilization of the asset.

Pratik Kothari

analyst
#12

Correct. And in your opinion, sir, how long does it take for -- like Solapur, you start with ROW markets and then gradually shift to regulated markets. So what would that time line be?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#13

See, if we -- we are going to validate products in Solapur this year itself, this calendar year. The idea here is to go for shortage products so that we can trigger an FDA inspection soon. So there will be quite a bit of validation happening as well in Solapur apart from the ROW markets servicing the demand from ROW markets. So it's going to be a kind of dual approach. And hopefully, if we can trigger an inspection in a year's time, then I mean, by FY -- late FY '28, we should see regulated products happening from Solapur as well.

Operator

operator
#14

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Ahmed Madha from Unifi Capital.

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#15

Just to understand the margin bit a little better. Can you elaborate or explain a little granularly? I think in presentation, you have mentioned that 3 levers. One is the new launches, second is the CDMO business, and third, the efficiencies. If you can break it up and explain a little bit better how the -- what is explaining the margin improvement in current quarter and your overall guidance as well?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#16

So let's go backwards. When it comes to operational efficiency, that impacts margins pretty much across the board, okay? Because there's -- I mean, it's all common there, right? When it comes to launches, obviously, it's those particular products that we've launched that are contributing much higher margin. And again, I explained in the last call that we've had launches even in Europe, in China, in LatAm, and Russia, okay? So these -- all these launches have contributed very significantly to the margin. Interestingly, the same products will get as patents expire in Europe as well as North America and so on. So this sort of runway with the newer products is going to last us for some time. And that's the second lever. With respect to CDMO, we had expected that Project 4 and Project 5 would kick in, in second half, and that's exactly what has happened. So Project 4 has started off in H1, but the volume pickup has happened much more significantly in H2 and Project 5 has also started kicking in. So again, this also being sustainable going forward is something that gives us the confidence that we can sort of get to those margin levels pretty comfortably.

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#17

And when you say efficiencies, is it in terms of yields and the raw material costs? Or is it below the raw material cost line item?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#18

It's both. It's both. So I mean, there's been a fair amount of work on key products that has started giving us that benefit on better yields, so basically less utilization of raw materials. And even on the energy side and basically, we are getting lower overheads on the products. So that has also helped us.

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#19

Okay. And in terms of CapEx, you explained to the earlier participant regarding how it doesn't impact our growth. So I mean, with the little bit of delay, a little bit of capacity sort of fine-tuning in terms of how much you will put, does that sort of risk our growth for next year? Or we'll have enough capacity and from existing as well as from Ankleshwar, Dahej from July to deliver us a decent growth for next year? And you can also please comment how you see the next year growth based on the launches and the existing products?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#20

The capacity is no longer a limitation, okay? We were in a sort of bind sometime back about 1 year, 1.5 years back when we were running neck to neck. With the recent brownfield expansions that we've had at Dahej and Ankleshwar and they are going to become operational in the second quarter of next year, both Dahej and Ankleshwar, we should be fairly comfortable to service the reg markets. And like I said earlier, both these expansions on the brownfield side should give us a runway of at least another 2 years comfortably for the reg markets. When Solapur coming in, we have a little more leverage in terms of moving the ROW products into Solapur. And that can further free up capacity if necessary. So capacity is not a challenge anymore. With respect to the growth for next year, again, I'm talking in terms of a fair amount of visibility that we have. And so we want to continue to guide to a high single-digit growth for next year as well. But certainly, the margins will remain in the 30% to 32% range.

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#21

Got it. And in terms of -- so our CDMO business, the number of projects that we have, is there any more visibility for new projects getting added? Any conversations are at the second of sort of conclusion or the project addition will be gradual from here on beyond the 5 we have, I'm assuming 5?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#22

Yes. So there is good traction on CDMO. Hopefully, we'll conclude 1 or 2 projects by the end of -- middle of the calendar year. So let's say, first quarter, we should conclude. Things are going well. We have even supplied some early quantities to the customers. So let's see how that goes. Again, because we have focused on the reg markets here for CDMO, there's always that lag time in terms of approval. But to lock in, I'm pretty confident that by first quarter of next year, we should have -- we would have brought in 1 or maybe 2 projects more into the...

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#23

Sure. And in terms of pricing environment, has there been any improvement or it continues to be sort of a significant erosion kind of an environment? And from our portfolio perspective, new launches have done well, but is there sort of a pricing issue industry-wide for the sort of base business, existing molecule? Or has there been any change or is it steady state?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#24

I would say it's fairly stable. I mean, on our entire bucket, we are guiding to 4%, 4.5% margin erosion. So it's okay. I mean, we are comfortable. Plus, what happens is we make sure that on those products where we are likely to see a price erosion, we do have the next-generation process lined up. So margins are not going to get impacted as a result of price erosion.

Ahmed Madha

analyst
#25

Last bookkeeping question. In the presentation and press release, we have free cash flow number. Tushar, if you can please share the operating cash flow number for 9 months or Q3, either way?

Tushar Mistry

executive
#26

Yes. The operating cash flow is about INR 439 crores before CapEx. So that's the operating cash flow. This is for the 9 months that I mentioned.

Operator

operator
#27

The next question is from the line of Yog Rajani from Omega Portfolio Advisors.

Yog Rajani

analyst
#28

My question mainly had to do with the company's growth plans, given that we have a high level of capability and a lot of cash on the balance sheet, why -- is there any reason we aren't willing to be more aggressive either with our organic expansion or our inorganic expansion?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#29

See, organic is pretty well scripted, okay? In terms of the portfolio buildup, the choice of molecules that we are making, the capacities that we are building up to service the growth in the business through launches -- with new launches and so on coming up in the next few years, right? So that is pretty much on track. I hear you, right, in terms of the inorganic part. But see, we want to be sure that -- and even that is well defined within our plans, right, in terms of what kind of where we need to go in terms of inorganic. So we are looking out. It's not like we have shut our minds to that. We are pretty clear that when the right opportunity comes along, we will take the right steps. So -- but obviously, we are not just going to do things willinly. I mean it's hard earn money, and we're going to make sure that it's deployed well.

Yog Rajani

analyst
#30

Okay. Great. My second question had to do with the R&D. As I understand, we will be inaugurating a new R&D facility. So how are we trying to improve our R&D capabilities over the next few years? If you could share some idea with us, like what would it be like?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#31

So there's going to be -- well, I won't say improve, but I would say basically add to what we already have, right? We are turning out molecules pretty quickly and also the complexity of molecules that we have is increasing in terms of complexity. So R&D has been pretty productive in Alivus. The question, though, is what else can we do? So we are looking very -- in a very focused way at flow chemistry because it has already yielded good commercial benefit and that effort is going to increase substantially. There's also opportunities on the green chemistry side, which we are working. And I keep talking about API plus from time to time. So in order to do more there, we are adding things like particle engineering and so on to benefit what we already have for more enhanced formulations. So that -- all that put together is going to give -- make our R&D even much more productive and give us more in terms of new business opportunities.

Yog Rajani

analyst
#32

Okay. Fair enough. My final question is about the risk we are facing. So if you could comment more on the risk we're facing either in terms of, say, getting more CDMO contracts or in general, the market environment, if there's any comment you could give us about that?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#33

Well, I mean, in terms of risks, the geopolitical situation is always something that we worry about because we have an international business, and we don't know what part of the world will heat up when. I mean you know how things are sort of happening everywhere, right? So given the fact that we have a global business, right, something could get impacted somewhere, but then that's also a positive because no particular area in the world is going to impact us very badly, right? I mean this we've seen during COVID, we saw this even before COVID, right? Where we were basically -- because we were well diversified across geographies, right, we were able to manage small hits here and there. So the risks are, I mean, not quantifiable at this point, right? Things seem to be going pretty well. But like I said, the geopolitical environment is extremely fragile right now. So we don't...

Yog Rajani

analyst
#34

My question was more with regards to the CDMO business. Do we see any threats to the CDMO business because it's still a young business, which we plan to grow. So are there any risks you're facing in getting more contracts towards the business? Or is everything all right on that front?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#35

No. In fact, things have only become better because, I mean, having left the Glenmark umbrella, I mean, we are no longer looked at as a kind of part of a big pharma group, right, that innovators do eye with a bit of suspicion, right? Although even when we were under the Glenmark umbrella, we were operating independently, right? And there was no real interference or any kind of thing from the parent. But still, it's a perception, right? People tend to look at you differently. So I mean, now that, that has also gone, we are looked at more favorably by many more companies. So I don't see a risk. Again, we basically are banking on the strength of a very strong process development platform, which we can customize for our customers, along with a well-oiled manufacturing platform, again, with all approvals from major regulatory agencies.

Operator

operator
#36

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Krishnendu Saha from Quantum Asset Management.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#37

[indiscernible] question just Doctor is it ...

Operator

operator
#38

Sorry to interrupt you Mr. Saha, we're unable to hear you clearly, sir.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#39

Can you hear me now?

Operator

operator
#40

Your voice is sounding very muffled.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#41

Can you hear me now?

Operator

operator
#42

Yes, please go ahead.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#43

Yes. When you speak about implementing flow chemistry, are we going to implement it all across -- like what percentage or what portion of our total manufacturing right now is in flow chemistry, so we could generate more cost savings or efficiency in that manner?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#44

So we are targeting the bigger volume APIs that we have, okay? And let me be clear that not everything is amenable to flow, okay? So in a batch process, many times we do in situ conversion and we have like 3 chemical conversions happening in 1 batch. That is not amenable to flow. But where you have long reaction time, a lot of energy consumption, excessive reagents that are being used, there's a good possibility to use flow to optimize both material usage as well as energy usage. So there, it can have a big impact. We've had a very successful product that we brought down the cost to 40% of what it was, okay, in batch.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#45

So shall we go ahead?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#46

Sorry, could you please repeat?

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#47

Future -- like the new product revenue-wise, could be implemented -- could we implement more flow chemistry in the future? Or this is -- or could it be limited to some, some very limited portion of the revenue in the future? So let's put it this way. You have high potency APIs, which will come for '28, '29 onwards, will they be flow chemistry or will they be batch?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#48

No, no, high potency doesn't have the volumes to basically enable flow. There is no point.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#49

Okay.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#50

High potency is done in very small reactors.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#51

I get that...

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#52

To make small batches and that's more efficient in terms of utilization of the platform. Flow would be used for higher volumes basically.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#53

Okay. I get it. So there's some still scope to implement for the flow chemistry in the future molecules. Right? Just on the turnover side, we are 2.3 right now. Is it like -- and we have the best margins in the last 4, 5 years and the lowest turnover asset front. So is there any scope of including the asset front in the future? Or it will be staying like that to 2.3?

Tushar Mistry

executive
#54

Krishnendu, this 2.3 is on the basis of our existing asset base, which has a historical asset base. Now you would have seen that we are currently in the CapEx cycle. And when you are generally into an investment phase, this asset turnover will come down. We expect it to come down below 2 in the short term. But eventually, we want to stabilize this at around 2 level.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#55

2 level. I see -- and still maintain the same margin, even if it comes down, we still maintain the same margin.

Tushar Mistry

executive
#56

Yes.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#57

And the last question on my side, do we get into the future plan to get into innovation, drug research innovation, pure innovation, novel molecules, something like that? Do we have anything on the thought process?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#58

No, no.

Operator

operator
#59

The next question is from the line of Karthik Swaminathan from Catamaran.

Krishnendu Saha

analyst
#60

Sir, my question is that if we look at the reactor capacity expansion plan, you are going from 14 -- sorry, 1,400 kiloliters to 2,100 kiloliters over the next year, which is like almost a 50% increase in reactor capacity. But when you're talking about revenue growth, you're only talking about a high single-digit growth. So I just wanted to understand why is there such a large difference? I mean, obviously, I understand price erosion and other components will be there. But if you could help me understand why such a big difference in terms of capacity and revenue growth?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#61

So 400 KL is just backward integration, right?

Karthik Swaminathan

analyst
#62

Right.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#63

And this we are doing to protect the larger molecules that bring in like INR 40 crores, INR 50 crores of revenue per molecule. So I mean, we've got to protect those businesses from a supply security perspective as well as from a margin protection. So that will be deployed for BI. And then the remaining is basically for the growth. And like you said, there's price erosion. So the volume growth is much higher than what we are seeing, okay? So that should cover us up. Plus we've been operating at 90% capacity. And that can be pretty risky because if new business comes along, then we don't have any capacity, any kind of surge capacity to be able to grab that business.

Operator

operator
#64

The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#65

Yasir, on your input cost pressures because we have a bit of sourcing, which we have -- of intermediates which happen from China. So there is this whole talk around anti-pollution and general inflation in intermediate pricing coming from China. Are you beginning to see any of that? And how do you see that plays out for the business for us?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#66

So far, it's been okay. The only place where we are likely to see a little bit of challenge is that the renminbi is strengthening against the dollar and then the rupee is weakening against the dollar. So I mean, we have kind of a double hit over there. But so far, we've got contracts that go anywhere from 6 months to a little more. So I expect that we should hold steady.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#67

You said -- per se, you don't just see any challenges on that account as far as?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#68

No, no, no. Nothing very serious. I mean -- and then see, we've got -- even if it is China, we've got a pretty well-distributed supply base for most of our molecules. So unlikely that people can hold it on our head basically. I mean we don't -- it's not like a vendor or a 2-vendor situation. We've got a pretty well spread out supply base, and we have worked actively to bring a fair amount of that back to India.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#69

Okay. So how would our sourcing from China change over the last 2, 3 years roughly?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#70

Nitin, in terms of it has not changed because we are getting benefited by lower prices or better prices, I should say, right? But then from a supply security perspective, if for whatever reason, we would -- we ended up getting lesser supplies from China, we do have alternate suppliers out of India.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#71

Got it. I got it. And sir, on the CDMO business, the contract that we have right now, what should be the peak sort of annual potential -- revenue potential for this contracts at peak, all these 5 put together?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#72

So it's a bit of a spread here, right? I had -- we had basically said that Project 4 and 5 together would get us around $12 million, right? It could be a little higher also based on what we are seeing now. But we expect that to top out around second half of the next financial year. Okay? And then we were basically doing a sort of run rate of around INR 140-ish crores on the earlier 3 projects. So that might move a little bit, but not much. So we expect to be in a reasonably good place with respect to these first -- to these 5 projects on CDMO. I mean we'll have to look at it as a bundle kind of number because there is some wariness, right, like I explained in the first 3 projects.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#73

And for F '28, you believe that some more incremental wins that we typically get next year should begin to contribute?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#74

Yes. So we -- like I said, right, we are in advanced stages for 2 more projects, right? And hopefully, we'll be able to -- we'll know by Q1 of next financial year of FY '27, right, whether we've locked those projects.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#75

And in general, with your conversations, I mean, are there -- the contract that you're discussing with your various sort of partners, is the size and scale of these contracts bigger than what we typically done or it's kind of the same ballpark?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#76

No, it's the same ballpark. I mean we are looking at anywhere from like 4 million to 6 million kind of opportunity.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#77

Okay. And last one on the generic API business, you've talked about a late double-digit -- [ 3-digit ] growth for -- from a broad guidance perspective. But over the next 2, 3 years, where do you think positive supplies can come from on this part of the business? I mean, if things play out -- do play out?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#78

On the generics?

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#79

On the generics, yes.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#80

I mean there's a fair amount of molecules that are going off patent in the next couple of years. And we have lined up across geographies, right, a reasonable part of our portfolio will start playing out. I can't give you numbers like hard numbers because, frankly, I don't even sort of -- we have a good estimate that we'll have -- we'll be seeing a pretty good string of launches coming up in the next couple of years and going forward as well.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#81

And last one, on the current set of products that we already have commercialized. I mean, do you see reasonable volume expansion opportunities there? Or this part of the current sort of commercialized portfolio is largely tapped out from a volume perspective?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#82

So let's split that into 2 parts. There's a very mature portfolio, which is pretty stable in terms of volume, okay? That's not growing like a lot, right, maybe like 2%, 3% growth over there, right? Okay? But then there are the newer launches where there are patent expiries that are still not exhausted. I mean you have -- we are seeing patent expiries that are coming up in the next 2 years or so. So that portfolio will grow pretty well. Plus because it's all post-approval changes now, we are also looking into getting alternate source opportunities for that portfolio. So that's where on the so-called regular portfolio, we'll see much better growth.

Nitin Agarwal

analyst
#83

Okay. And when do you see the high potency portfolio sort of becoming meaningful for the business?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#84

So that will start from late FY '28.

Operator

operator
#85

The next question is from the line of Tarang from Old Bridge.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#86

Congratulations for a very strong set of numbers. A couple of questions, sir. One, on the raw material side, what percentage of our procurement are we solely dependent on China for?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#87

Less than 10%. But even there, when you said solely dependent, right? So it's less than 10%. But even there, it's a distributed base. So again, there's no single vendor dependence here.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#88

Okay. Second, how is the raw material environment? I mean, does it -- has it gone down further or it continues to be at the levels that you witnessed in the earlier quarters?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#89

No, it's okay. But again, right, I mean, there are some -- here and there, you do see a few products moving, but then we also get benefited on other products. So I mean, it's not as if, right, it's just going in one direction. So when you look at our portfolio, in general, we are able to balance it out. The other thing that we are actively looking at is with Solapur coming online by July, we would be bringing in certain volumes, right, where there are significant margins that we are leaving to the vendor. So those -- we have mapped out those. And as soon as Solapur starts, we'll be shifting a good percentage of that into Solapur.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#90

Got it. Second, sir, on the end product side to the earlier question, for your mature molecules, what is the kind of market share that you have now across the geographies that you're servicing?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#91

For which ones, Tarang?

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#92

Mature molecules.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#93

It ranges. It goes anywhere from sort of global market share of 10% to 35%. It depends on the molecule.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#94

Okay. And for your upcoming or, so to say, relatively newer molecules, how would that number be number one? Number two, there is also an inherent expectation that the market for those molecules will also expand, correct?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#95

Yes, because patents are going to be expiring over time, right? I mean, in different markets. It's not like all the patents expire on day 1, right?

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#96

Right. And the idea there is, from a filing perspective, that's the number that you want to get to. Basically, it continues the flywheel of following your mature molecules, correct?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#97

Yes. See, filings are done, right? We've already filed rather our customers have filed with our API, but they can't launch until the patents expire, right? So we are already locked in. I mean we are able to confidently predict that, okay, if we've got 2 customers in a particular market, let's say, Brazil, and they are good front-end players, then we can assume a market share of around 20% or 25%. So basis that, we are seeing that growth will come from those molecules.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#98

Got it. And last, sir, for 9 month FY '26, what would be the volume growth for the business?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#99

9 months FY '26, let me just tell you in a second.

Tushar Mistry

executive
#100

I mean on the overall growth, you can take about 5% price erosion, Tarang. The balance is the volume growth.

Operator

operator
#101

The next question is from the line of [ Ankit Manocha from Adezi Ventures Family Office. ]

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#102

Just on a continuation of the previous participant's question regarding volume versus pricing growth. So I mean, how does pricing mechanics usually work across your portfolio? Like how much of the percentage the pricing is based on spot pricing versus where do you have more stable contract prices there? Question basically coming from the point that if you are guiding for, say, high single-digit revenue growth, then what is the kind of estimations that you're taking for pricing erosion or in growth? And where could we kind of -- could we see surprises there?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#103

So I'll answer it in 2 parts, okay? So there is the regulated markets, right, where we are locked in with our customers. And there, the market itself does not see significant erosion at the front end. So we have a pretty good comfort level in terms of prices staying relatively stable in those markets. But then there is -- there are other ROW markets where changes to API vendor can be pretty quick. And so there, we have to be more agile and essentially be ready to match with respect to pricing. So that's one way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that we have a mature -- very mature set of molecules where it's 5 years plus in the market. Now there, things are pretty much set. So even the competitive intensity is defined, right? So you -- we know we have so many players. We have so much market share and our customers have so much market share across whichever geography they are operating in. So there, we don't see major sort of pricing shocks, okay? But it's there. I mean there is a mild erosion there as well because customers are customers and they will ask, right? But it's not very, very big, right? It's a very low kind of margin price erosion, okay? And then, of course, we have the newer molecules where for a period of maybe 18 to 24 months, we have stability. But then as the market starts becoming more intense, right, and more players start entering, then we see erosion. But then we have the next-generation process also sorted out. So that then comes in and sort of -- so we see erosion there to answer the question, right? And -- but we can manage at least the margin side.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#104

Okay. So when you say -- when you say single digit -- high single-digit revenue growth for next year, then do you build in any base cases for what is the volume and what is the pricing breakup of that growth?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#105

Yes. So Tushar just answered the question, right, where we said that we are factoring in 5% price erosion. And so -- and with a single-digit -- high single-digit growth, we obviously should be geared up for about 15% -- 15% to 17% of volume growth.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#106

Understood. That's clear. My second question is with regard to the capacity expansion from 1,400 to 2,100-odd KL. So I mean, assuming -- currently, I believe you mentioned that your capacity utilization levels were above 90%. What are you envisaging as the utilization levels in FY '27? And assuming we kind of reach those utilization levels, what would be the EBITDA margin profile of the business once those levels are reached? What could be the margin profile?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#107

I'm not sure I got it, okay, but let me try. You want to repeat what you just said, Ankit?

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#108

Yes. Basically, after you are completed with your capacity expansion, what would be the -- what is the EBITDA margin profile that we are looking at for the business? And what are the capacity utilization levels that you're looking at for FY '27?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#109

Okay. So capacity utilization should be between 85 and 90 when the new capacity comes online because I said that, look, 400 KL is getting utilized for backward integration and then the remaining is available for the regular CDMO and API business, okay? We will operate at around 85%, which was, like I said, it gives us the surge capacity. The EBITDA margins are driven by a mix, okay? And yes, maybe we have some under absorption, but compared to our overall profitability, I don't think that under-absorption is going to significantly hit our EBITDA.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#110

Okay. Sure, sure. And finally, on the CDMO side, I mean, could you explain a little bit like how does it integrate with the core API -- generic API business? What is it that the CDMO operations entail? And overall, the growth profile and the margin profile of this business versus your current business?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#111

So it's a shared capacity, both with respect to the R&D platform as well as the manufacturing platform. And the margin profile is certainly better on CDMO. It's more stable, okay? Once we lock in these projects, we don't see that much erosion to begin with. And then there's always room for improvement on the efficiency side. So then that only helps us more with respect to the margins. It's better than generic, no doubt about it. I mean that's clear.

Operator

operator
#112

The next question is from the line of Sunil Kothari from Unique PMS.

Sunil Kothari

analyst
#113

Sir, this is not related to this quarterly numbers. My broad -- I want to understand is you have so many years of experience with working with a different mindset or growth-oriented promoter or maybe manager from Matrix to Glenmark and now Nirma. And with this solid balance sheet, so many years of changes very well absorbed from Glenmark dependency to non-Glenmark business, the way you are investing in R&D. So can we, as an investor, maybe over 3, 5 years, should we expect a better growth rate from you, I mean, lowering your conservatism, investing a little bit more maybe aggression. Anything would you like to share thoughts on with now solid foundation on base? Would you like to go a little faster? Or this is the way we'll be working?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#114

Okay. See, there are 2, 3 things here, okay? I mean, the industry has changed so much in 20 years. I would say it has had at least 3 avatars in the last 20 years. So you can't firstly apply the same logic that would be applied even 5 years ago, right? Okay? So I mean, those days are gone, right, where you had Parafos and all that and you had big Bonanza products. Where are those? Those are not there, right? And so what happens is our job is to read the market the way it's shaping up, okay? That's one thing. Second is that I think we've done a reasonably good job of reading the market because if you look at our non-GPL business, it is growing well. The non-GPL business is growing well. So 70% or 75% -- 70% to 75% of our business is growing in the mid-teens or the low to mid-teens, okay? Because we made the right choices, firstly, in terms of portfolio, right? Then in terms of the geographic expansion that we went on about 5, 6 years ago that we went on, we seeded projects all over the world. That has definitely contributed. Now with respect to getting aggressive, I think I answered that, that, yes, we are sitting on cash, right? And hopefully, that pile will grow a little more, right, as we go along. But whatever choices we make beyond the organic growth, right, has to fit in well with our overall plan of how we grow and how the overall pharma market is evolving. Okay? That will definitely be front and center in terms of how we think of -- so growth will come. But to us, what is more important, right, as a philosophy is maintain a high-quality business because if you keep a high-quality business, right, you generate cash. The moment you go for a low-margin business, volume business, you suck your working -- your capital sucks out whatever money you make, whatever cash you make. And then you're stuck, okay? So we don't want to go there, right? We've been fairly right in terms of getting -- reading the market. And so this will -- I feel this is a sort of path that will keep us on a good track in terms of generating cash. And then at the appropriate time, when we find the right kind of things, we'll make the right investments and move forward. And hopefully, that aggressive growth that you're talking about may come at that time.

Operator

operator
#115

The next question is from the line of Smith Gala from RSPN Ventures.

Smith Gala

analyst
#116

So most of the questions of my -- questions of mine have been answered. Just want to understand a bit of longer-term picture when the full capacity of Solapur also goes live after what we are utilizing for the backward integration. So maybe from FY '28, '29, can we start seeing double-digit growth?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#117

Yes, yes. I'm sure we will. We will.

Operator

operator
#118

The next question is from the line of Sajal Kapoor from Antifragile Thinking.

Sajal Kapoor

analyst
#119

Dr. Rawjee, our CDMO model has long gestation cycles and much smaller deal sizes. It takes significant time to onboard a new project. And even then the revenue opportunity is limited to $6 million to $8 million kind of an annual run rate. In contrast, some of the other Indian CDMOs who offer a fee-for-service model, not the CRO type running on FTE models. I'm not talking about those. There are other CDMOs that offer fee-for-service. And they are scaling much faster, targeting individual CDMO molecules of anywhere from $50 million to $100 million annual run rate because these are NCEs and they partner with the innovators early in the cycle from Phase II and Phase III onwards. And that offers a much higher magnitude as well as visibility of adding more molecules to the pie. So their funnel size is also larger. I mean why can't we aim for higher magnitude and faster growth in CDMO because our scientific talent is also right up there?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#120

Okay. Let me -- let's put this in some perspective here. How many such $50 billion to $100 billion opportunities are fructifying at least in our country, right, okay? Not many, right? Because the reality is that these are all patented products, which big pharma usually likes to keep with themselves. Maybe we could get an intermediate here and there that may give us some business. But the reality is that it is Ireland where we manufacture because Ireland has a 12% tax rate, I believe, right? And all big pharma companies park their profits there, so they don't take manufacturing out of Ireland. This is the reality. Coming to us in terms of how we are positioned, see, we've got a pretty big portfolio that we can offer and we are offering in terms of life cycle management, okay, and to the specialty companies, and we are seeing traction there. So yes, you're right. And we also are clear that we will target those. But with respect to gestation, I think we are doing a pretty reasonable job. I mean the projects start kicking in commercially within 2 years of our first discussion, literally within 2 years. And this is I'm talking full commercial, right? I mean we initiated Project 5 last November, okay? So it's been a little over a year now, and we are already seeing that we'll start seeing traction. So literally, within 18 to 24 months, we are getting the projects on board. Yes, it's $4 million to $5 million. It could be a little higher. But then the projects are fructifying faster. Now if we play it right with the numbers, right, we had 3 projects. We've now 5, we are likely to get to 7 projects in another half year, right? And there are more in the pipeline. I mean, as we speak, there are at least 7 to 8 projects that are in active discussion. So -- and the confidence level also, like I pointed out earlier, has gone up because we are not in a large pharma ownership, right? So we could get into this game, but I can assure you, attrition is very high, right? And you can count on one hand, okay, how many such $50 million to $100 million opportunities are really there in the entire country, okay? So I don't know. I mean, attrition is very high.

Sajal Kapoor

analyst
#121

No. Of course, Dr. Rawjee, you know more than anyone in the industry. Attrition is high. But even in case of Phase III clinical trial batches, the volumes are as big as 8 million to 10 million, even before the drug is commercial. On that Ireland thing, right, I mean, so Ireland takes N-1. So they do the end stage in Ireland to make it tax compliant in that jurisdiction. But coming back to our CDMO strategy, I mean, if you go back to the November 2022 investor roadshow that we did, we were very confident that we'll double our CDMO by 2025 in that presentation. That has not happened for a variety of reasons that you have been explaining over the quarters. And I think it's a common question from most of the participants or many participants that we want to be seeing Alivus a little more aggressive in the growth. And I'm sure we'll get there. But I think we are slightly behind in the CDMO segment. Otherwise, given the complexity of products that we deal with from particle engineering to flow chemistry, we are right up there, and we -- even you can compare our capability with anyone in the industry.

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#122

I do agree that from a capability perspective, we have it, right? It's defining what we take up and what we let go because again, it's a cost benefit analysis, right, in terms of -- I mean, the big part of our business is the generics business. It's also generating because of the portfolio, a pretty good growth as well as margins. So let's see. I mean we'll take your suggestion, Sajal, and let's see how -- we'll take that internally, okay? But I can tell you, based on, [indiscernible] right, it's a high-risk game.

Operator

operator
#123

The next question is from the line of Tarang from Old Bridge.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#124

Sir, just -- I mean, continuing on the earlier question, can you cross utilize your current capacities in case you wish to cater to the innovator for projects which are under development?

Yasir Rawjee

executive
#125

Yes, we can. Because, again, we have inspected sites. So that's not a hurdle at all, right? Typically, it's -- that's the first sort of hurdle that you have to clear. And then if you've got good business continuity plans, right, then -- and we do. So with a fair amount of search capacity, now with Solapur coming on board, we'll be able to offer that as well.

Tarang Agrawal

analyst
#126

Got it, sir. And just -- I can't speak for others, but from my vantage, I think, sir, you've seen reasonable execution on the non-GP part of the business on a year-on-year basis. And I think on the CDMO business also, it's an interesting niche that you've carved out for yourself. And we would want you to continue doing this. I mean it's up to the management as to how they want to take forward the trajectory of the business. But I just wanted to bring that clarification.

Operator

operator
#127

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to paucity of time, that was the last question for today. On behalf of Alivus, I'm closing this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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