Allegion plc (ALLE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

May 9, 2023

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Building Products conference_presentation 35 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#1

All right. Welcome, everybody. Excited to have our next presenters here. We have Allegion fresh off of their Investor Day last week. We have Mike Wagnes, the CFO; and Tom Martineau, Head of Investor Relations. I know, Mike, you've got some prepared comments. So I'll turn the mic over to you. But thanks for being here today.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#2

All right. Thanks, Joe. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Hopefully, everyone got a chance to listen to our Investor Day last week. I'm just going to highlight a few slides to just kind of set the stage for Allegion. But to really do this justice, we need to -- I really encourage you all to go listen to our Investor Day. Obviously, we'll start with forward-looking statements. I just ask you just to read it and consider it accordingly. As far as Allegion, our vision is we enable seamless access in a safer world. And what that means in a nutshell is we're looking to provide the most convenient, secure access for users of both physical credentials, the key, or even mobile credentials where the people who need access get access on that secure and convenient way, and those who don't need access are not permitted access. So we keep people safe and secure. And our strategy here is we're a pure-play provider of access and security. And we're pretty close to the knitting of what we are. We've been this way since we spun out from Ingersoll Rand 10 years ago and expect to stay a security and access company. If you look at our business profile, last year, we had $3.3 billion in revenue. We have the leading brands or some of the leading brands in the industry, especially in North America, you could think of Schlage, Von Duprin and LCN. In Europe, you can think of CISA, some really iconic brands. We're also the leading margin company in the industry. So we have the highest EBITDA margins in the industry, and we expect that to continue. And so if you listen to our earnings call last week or our investor -- or 2 weeks ago, or our Investor Day last week, we're going to push the margin expansion story. And you'll hear that from Allegion. We believe that our market-leading margins are a competitive advantage when we think about investors and we drive margin expansion. If you think about our business mix, we added these slides to kind of give you a flavor for where we operate. So our business starting over into the right, we're about half aftermarket, half new build. So we have the stability of an aftermarket business that's very consistent. Then on the middle part, you see the vertical markets in which we play. This is our global footprint where we're 40% institutional. If you look at our business in the Americas, that number is 45%. So we're mostly an institutional vertical market business with commercial, 30% in the Americas; and then resi 25% globally. I think it's important to understand Allegion that institutional, that tends to be public finance, not private finance, stable, very late cycle business. And so when you think of Allegion, and I know there's some narrative out there about commercial office and regional lending, that is not where we play. We're a very institutional heavy business. Think K-12, higher ed, hospitals, health care, which tends to be public finance. And then electronics versus mechanical, this has been growing for us. We're about 30% electronics today. This is the key growth driver for Allegion. We believe that electronics will be a double-digit growth driver for us in the future, continue to be a growth driver -- a strong growth driver. And that is really where we're going to put our investments to drive market outgrowth and shareholder return. In the next 2 slides, I'm just going to give you an example of electronics because it's so key to the story. Think of a higher ed university. When many of the people in this room were in college, you had a mechanical key to get into your room. Your children, they're going to go and there's going to be an electronic lock. And we're going through that transformation today where universities, in this example, Auburn University, we partner with the mega techs: the access control provider in the case of Lenel, the one-card provider in the case of CBORD. This is a partnership where we come with a solution for the end user to have a seamless solution, and this is an opportunity to really accelerate electronics growth. In this university, they ripped off all the mechanical hardware and they're putting on all electronic hardware. So great growth driver for us. Another great opportunity for us is in the multifamily. Similar dynamic, multifamily, traditionally a keyed solution, mechanical solution, it's moving to an electronic solution where the property owner doesn't have to worry about trying to get keys back from tenants when they leave. The ease of showing the property when people and potential tenants want to see the property adds a value that today didn't exist a couple of decades ago. And so moving forward, expect multifamily to be a big growth driver for us as well as that higher ed solution I illustrated before. And then just one more before we get to Q&A, this was what we closed our Investor Day with about Allegion and where we're headed. Number one, as many of you know, we ran into some challenges with supply chain that really hurt us operationally in the end of '21 and into '22. Middle of '22 forward, we're really operating at a high level and you saw that in our Q1 results and our back half of last year as well. So we're kind of back to operating at the level that you expect of Allegion. Electronics is going to be that key growth driver for market outgrowth. We think we're going to outgrow market, and electronics will be that key driver. We're going to continue to invest in our software and services revenue. As many of you know, we made an acquisition earlier in the year to buy plano, a small software company out in Germany. And we bought in '22, the Access Technologies business, which is a great business for us that has a high service component; a stable, high service, high margin business. And most importantly, we generate a lot of cash at Allegion. We're going to deploy that effectively for the benefit of shareholders. So with that, I'm happy to turn it over to Q&A.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#3

Yes. No, no, that's great. Really appreciated the overview, Mike. We're going to dig into a few of those seamless opportunities that you just highlighted. But before we even get there, a lot of changes over the past 18 months, right? You've got -- you took over as CFO. You've got John taking over as CEO. Maybe just talk about like some of the changes that you guys have already started implementing that you're most excited about?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#4

Yes. So it's an exciting time in Allegion. Obviously, we have a new management team. I joined in March as the CFO, but I've been at the company for 12 years. So I'm a company insider. Many of you know me at my former days as the Head of Investor Relations. John joined a few months after me, so he joined a week after we closed Access Tech. And one of the benefits we're really seeing is we're back to operating at a high level. And one of the things we know we struggled with was the supply chain. I feel that operationally, we're executing at an extremely high level. We're also really positioned well to take advantage of the seamless access journey. And one thing in particular John brought is, John's background, he kind of led this technology-fueled growth at Deere. And so they went through this journey a little before Allegion. So coming into a company which had the right strategy, he was able to bring some of his experience to help fuel and accelerate that seamless access strategy. So as we talk about things like software, right, that's a clear example of a direction that Allegion is focusing on here as we accelerate growth. So look for us to be really focused on accelerating growth to drive shareholder return.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#5

Okay, great. So you had the Auburn example, so even beyond K-12. And what does it ultimately take for Auburn to make the decision? Was that retrofitting existing buildings? Was that new building that was going up? And then I don't know, is there any way for you to help size, like what college campus opportunity would look like for you?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#6

Yes. So if you -- I'm reaching from my phone here. So what's happening right now is that the phone is becoming the credential. The days of a physical key will soon be part of your phone. And so a case like Auburn University, here's a university that wants the convenience of a mobile phone application, not just for locks, for the entire campus. So if you go to the student bookstore, you need to have on your credential a secure phone credential where you can pay -- the credential can pay for your books, the food at the dining hall. It's so much more than locks, but locks is a component. So a university will look for a trusted partner like us to work with their other providers on campus, that's why we use the partner of choice, to come with that solution, which includes locks. But it's larger than locks. And in the case of Auburn as well, traditionally a campus, and here's the use case. They'll go every summer and move a mechanical cylinder from dorm room to different dorm rooms. So if you were in Room 306, you couldn't get in the next year. Now with an electronic solution, they don't have to do that. They just remove Joe Ritchie's credential so he doesn't get into that room the next year. So there's a real use case for efficiency that drives a larger university like Auburn to implement a full campus solution. In smaller universities, they'll do it more piecemeal where each summer, they'll do a couple of buildings at a time. But there's a long-term trend that higher ed will get to electronic locking as the standard rather than the exception.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#7

Got it. And to be clear, this is all a retrofit opportunity and where you're partnering with a lot of the software providers and you're providing the hardware associated with it.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#8

Right. we partner with Lenel and CBORD. Obviously, the mega techs own the wallet within the phone. Lenel is the access control, CBORD is the one-card provider. So it's a partnered solution on a retrofit basis where historically, you wouldn't have replaced via a new sale those cylinders or those locks unless they broke. So this shows a market cost opportunity for us for growth because it's a perfectly working device that gets replaced.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#9

Got it. And then my last question along these lines is as you think about your hardware, is it open architecture? Can you -- do you have like the opportunity? Is it exclusively partnering with certain software providers? Like, what's the architecture like?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#10

We are open architecture. Great question. We partner with all access control software partners. So if you look at our website, we have a page which has our 50 PACS partners that we partner with. And so we have an open architecture partner strategy in the case of higher ed where we're going to partner to make that solution. There are certain applications like multifamily where the solution is more sophisticated by the access control partners today. So we go with a turnkey solution where it's a simple Allegion solution of hardware and software. So we can either partner or we can go with our own solution. Don't look for us to be exclusive either way. We think it's a combination of both and not either. So...

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#11

And on the multifamily side, I guess my bias would be that that's more of a new construction opportunity than a retrofit opportunity, but am I characterizing it...

Michael Wagnes

executive
#12

Historically, that tended to be the case. You have a dynamic now where property owners are seeing the advantage of putting in that multifamily lock on an existing building. And so there is now starting to be retrofit. If you talked to me 4 or 5 years ago, we would say retrofit was extremely small. Now you're starting to see an acceleration in the retrofit for multifamily as well, highlighting the real above-market growth that electronics would provide us.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#13

Yes. So it's interesting, right, because we're -- we've been talking about electronics growth for a while. And it has been good, but you're still at a point where penetration rates are pretty low, right? I think we're talking around like 10% type penetration rate. So the enthusiasm that I'm hearing in your voice, is that driven by how many like qualifying leads you're being asked to bid for? Or what is really kind of like changing? Because it does feel like there might be an inflection here that's positive?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#14

Yes. So if you followed Allegion for a long time, you would hear us talk about electronics growth historically, and it might have been a little bit more on the residential side. Because your front door, you might have been more adept to change that lock than go with electronic lock. Now the enthusiasm is you're starting to see the momentum in that higher ed, in that multifamily solution. So I think that when you think here enthusiasm, it's really the acceleration on the non-res side that it's something we saw coming over the last half decade. But now we're starting to see more and more momentum, and we just illustrated a couple of examples here. But if you think of K-12, school security is a focus of schools. There's more adoption of security products there as well. So it's really across the product offering, but I do feel momentum coming in electronics. And you saw that in our growth the last 3 quarters. Electronics growth has really started to accelerate for us. Our demand has been strong. So I do think -- think of electronics as a long-term growth driver for us. It's not a -- within 3 years, every lock is electrified. Think of it as a multiple-year, double-digit growth driver as this installed base, which is historically very mechanical, becomes more and more electrified and digital.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#15

Makes sense. At your Investor Day, you talked a lot about Overtur. So maybe for those that aren't as familiar with it, talk us through like how does Overtur actually work? How is it differentiated for you guys?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#16

For Allegion, in our nonresidential business, it really starts with the demand-gen engine and the spec engine in non-res. Overtur is a tool we use to help us take advantage of it. So for our business, we write the specification for an architect to help drive demand for our products. So with that spec writing, Overtur is the tool we use to -- in the design phase to work with architects, but it goes all the way through the life cycle of a building to the end user. So it's a way to create influence throughout all -- if you think about commercial construction, all elements in a life cycle of the business has different influencers, whether it's general contractors, distributors, end users in the design phase with the architect. Overtur is the tool we use to just create more stickiness. And so this is something that we do as the market leader to keep that market-leading position. So we love the additional stickiness that gives us with our existing customers. And it's a tool that makes us more efficient with the architect. And if we could be more efficient with an architect, we can write more specs and drive more revenue.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#17

I imagine that some of your, like large like competitors that are publicly traded, ASSA, dormakaba, like I would imagine that they have similar design architecture as well. I'm curious, like is the share opportunity with this specific application may be targeting more medium-sized or smaller players that aren't investing or can't invest? How are you thinking about the opportunity?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#18

Great question. So we were clearly the first with this tool. But with any tool, your competitors will eventually -- and make the necessary investments to catch up. I think the key thing you see here in Overtur, when you have that as-designed spec and in the tool, when it's time for repair, replace, it just makes it so much harder for someone to not use your product on the repair, replace. And then when you build a new building on that same campus, if you're already suited with the Allegion product, you're more likely to go with Allegion. So it just makes you that much more stickier with your existing customer base, and it stops anyone else from taking some -- not making you able to get that like-for-like. So it just makes like-for-like so much more applicable.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#19

And then so you mentioned plano, the recent acquisition. So just talk through that acquisition specifically. It seems like it's really going to help you with workforce planning. Is -- talk to me about why that's the right adjacency for your business.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#20

It's not an adjacency in this respect. We have an Interflex business out in Europe, which is in workforce management. And so what we did is we bought a small software company that can tack on to our existing Interflex solution to make it more user-friendly and easier to adapt and is, frankly, cheaper than trying to build this business ourselves. So it's a small -- we disclosed the amount in our 10-Q, $35 million purchase price, to really accelerate that business and make it a better tool for the end user today. And Interflex is a great software business we have based in Germany. So it's not a case where we're going outside our swim lane. When we do M&A, look for it to be very closely tied to our existing portfolio where we can buy -- where we can get synergies. In this case, it's deleveraging the Interflex business today, that platform.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#21

Got it. So I'm going to turn to the audience in a minute, if anybody has got any questions. But before we get there, just one quick one since we're talking about M&A. I think you have a goal of 2% to 3% of your sales to come from M&A. You just talked about plano, Access Tech. You seem to be really happy with how that acquisition is performing. What are kind of like the right areas for you to be looking at from an M&A perspective? What does the pipeline look today? And then we'll ask some questions on Access Tech as well.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#22

So if you look at our business, you'll hear us say often, pure-play security and access. So we are very focused on staying close to our core of what our business is and M&A targets being those that can really enhance our overall business portfolio, trying to leverage the existing business. I gave you an example on Investor Day. There was a small business up in Seattle, Washington called AD Systems, makes sliding door solutions for a hospital. We were able to -- we bought the business and then leveraged the demand-gen engine in North America where we were able to put in our sales force and drive over 20% annual growth in that business. Great example of the type of assets we like to add, businesses that leverage the existing either front end of the business, distribution partners, but similar to our existing portfolio, so there's real synergies and not a case of going completely outside of our swim lane. Look for us to be very close to what we do of security and access.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#23

And the pipeline right now?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#24

I would say the pipeline has -- we put considerable efforts to rebuild it. When John came in, one of the things we did is reinstitute regular reviews of pipelines and building pipelines. So I think the pipeline is in a healthy position as well.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#25

Okay. And then just Access Tech before I go to the audience. So it seems like you got off to a really good start. Just provide any color you'd like to on how that business is integrating into yours.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#26

Yes. So we had a product gap historically. We did not have that sliding solution. And so when this asset became available, obviously, we made sure we put it as part of the Allegion family. This business got off to a great start. We talked about it in our Q1 call. It grew 15% in the quarter. We're ahead of our business case when we made the acquisition. But the real value I see is the leverage of writing the specifications for their products in our spec engine is going to create even more demand for their product that we haven't seen yet since the building hasn't even been designed. So it's leveraging that front end that we love with putting this product into the existing product offering.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#27

You were talking about Overtur again.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#28

Great example.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#29

All right. I'll turn it over to the audience. Any questions from the audience? I'm happy to keep going. So non-res, a lot of discussion around non-res and you referenced it in your earlier remarks regarding how much of your North America business is commercial new construction. I mean your business was up, I think, 30%. The non-res business was up this quarter. And so how do you see the rest of the year playing out? Like, what are you seeing in your front log? Any -- just any commentary around that would be helpful?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#30

Yes. So our non-res business, North America, great Q1, and has really been healthy for a while here. We gave some guidance. For the full year, think of this as a double-digit growth business for us. And I think the key thing to understand in our business is the institutional-heavy late cycle. Those who sat with us earlier today, some of you in the room, heard me talk about this. It's really important to understand that institutional business is publicly financed, and state and local budgets are very healthy. So non-resi for us is really healthy.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#31

And for you, leading indicators would be -- was it Overtur? Like, what you're -- how you're spec-ing into certain projects and how much visibility then do you have to your front log.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#32

There's -- we have really good visibility because of how late the product goes in a building, right? So if you think about the design to construction phase to revenue, I mean, it could be anywhere from 12 to 24 months from when you design the project until you put product on the door. So that gives us that looking glass to see markets, whether that specification is a key indicator. We also look at all the same public data points that you guys look at: ABI, the AIA consensus Construction Forecast, Dodge. But it's really more than just the public data, it's really seeing the health of the front end and how long it takes from when our distributors get their order books to when we ship products, give us confidence in the -- what we would call, near term, the 2023, that we feel that there's a lot of momentum, especially in the non-res.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#33

Sounds like it might even give you a little bit more visibility than that. Like, is it -- does it seem like you've got decent non-res visibility at least through the early part of next year?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#34

Yes, we should. We talked about it on our earnings call. Clearly, for '23, we gave the double-digit framework. We also, in our Investor Day, gave a long-term guide. And in our long-term guide, we gave the market and the market we see as being stable. And so much of that is driven by that institutional business, publicly financed. So I know I've said it multiple times, but that really gives us that visibility.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#35

That's great. So one of the themes coming out of earnings for a lot of companies was this expansion on price/cost. And you guys saw it as well, right? And we've been waiting, the last couple of quarters, it's been very, very good. Pricing, I think, was up 10 points this quarter. But -- so I have 2 questions. Number one, historically, I go back several years, you've had pretty -- you've had good pricing, positive pricing, across your business. So the first question is what about your business allows you to continue to get, call it, 1, 1.5 points of price every year? And then the second question is, how do you see pricing through the rest of this year?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#36

Yes. So I'll talk to the framework and maybe you can dive in on the details. Non-residential, we compete on value, right? So if you look at this industry, historically, you have a situation where you know your inflation and you price accordingly to ensure that your pricing covers your inflation. And so it is an industry that competes on value. Complex buildings lead to value being the -- end user valuing the more complex solutions. And so that allows us to ensure we're able to cover our inflationary pressures. So it is an industry where value is the key determinant by end users, not necessarily who's got the lowest cost for the solution.

Tom Martineau

executive
#37

Yes. I think it's also important on the pricing, especially on the nonresidential side, it's sticky. So because of that value that's being brought to the solution, typically, it's not one you're going to get back. And even in deflationary times, you can look back, as you alluded to, you're still going to be able to get a little bit of price, so it drives that dynamic. So when we make the comment for the year, the price productivity inflation not only kind of covering them on the dollar basis but also margin now. We were a little behind on that, but we think that's the mantra of the business model going forward. That gives us that insight. We've already gone out with kind of our initial price increase that's built into the guide. We would announce to our channel before we'd announce any other additional prices publicly. But it's a lever that we'll pull if we were to see increased inflation. Typically, we'll have some visibility to that, too.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#38

Is there a lag in your pricing to some degree because you're spec-ing into projects? And so again, because typically, you don't actually deliver for another 12 to 24 months, you might be spec-ing in earlier. So my question is, you're seeing good pricing come through now. You've got visibility into, call it, the next 12 to 24 months. And so are we expected then to continue to see very positive pricing over the course at least over the next 12 months because of how you spec into these projects?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#39

Let me more say long term. That lag does provide you a nice long-term tailwind when you think of pricing. One thing about more near term is we can't forget that we had multiple price increases as the inflationary pressures started that were lapping. And so what you have in 2023 is you do have some lapping of previous year where we had multiple price increases. I think what we're -- what we feel good about is we're back to expanding margins where price plus productivity is going to fund our investments and our inflation. And I think that dynamic is not a short term. I think it's a long term. As you look out through the planning period, we talked about it in the Investor Day, this is something we expect every year to drive that margin expansion of 50 to 100 basis points.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#40

Okay. That's super helpful. As you think about the -- we haven't talked about your residential business at all, but it's still 25% of the overall portfolio. As you think about the U.S. versus outside of the U.S., what are you seeing right now from a demand perspective? How are inventories? What are you hearing from your channel partners? Any color would be helpful?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#41

Yes. So residential, we talked about some even on our first quarter call. Clearly, residential is not as strong as non-res. What we had in the first quarter for us, we've been talking about the opportunity to restock shelves with electronic products because, historically, we were struggling to meet demand in electronics for resi. We were able to accomplish that in the first quarter. So we had a really strong residential electronics in Q1, which was restocking the shelves. Moving forward, you can expect to see resi kind of mirror on the aftermarket side point of sale at a big box retailer. And then on the new build side, we're closer to completions than starts, so our products tend to go in at the end of a home as well as a commercial application. So as you look at completions, that will impact especially on the mechanical side. I do think there's opportunity in electronics based on consumers' desire to adopt that electronic product to drive above-market growth. But the underlying market assumptions are muted by residential, which residential, as many of you know, has been, on a short-term basis, softer. Longer term, I do think resi is a longer-term opportunity. There's been a lack of supply of homes for quite some time. So I do expect this to bounce back -- or we expect it to bounce back. But in the near term, as we guided on our first quarter call, we expect residential to be more challenged than non-res.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#42

Makes a ton of sense. I just want to ask one other question around international since we haven't gotten there, and we don't have Tim here to answer this question. But he took over of the International segment 2.5 years ago when you guys merged it. What's the right dynamics for margins and the right framework for margins in that segment going forward? You've done a great job getting the margins much higher than when he first took over. But where do margins go from here?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#43

Business is much healthier than what you think of it when you started covering us 10 years ago. Even in the first quarter where revenue was really challenged, it was still a double-digit low-teen margin business. So I expect that business to expand margins on a long-term basis that's similar 50 to 100 basis points as part of our framework. What you're not going to see is the multiple 100 basis points a year that took us from 0 up to the double-digit mid-teen EBITDA business it is today. But we do expect them to expand margin longer term. Obviously, in the current year, we had some discussion in our Q1 call about margins being flattish to slightly down this year.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#44

Great. One last question. So I think I heard correctly, but I'll give you an opportunity to hit the nail on the head on this one. In terms of M&A, it sounds like you're really focused on adjacent markets. So we shouldn't think about you as potentially wanting to do something much larger in like the fire and security space, which could potentially -- it could be adjacent but, at the same time, a little bit different than your knitting?

Michael Wagnes

executive
#45

We would say look for us to stay in security and access where we play today. So adjacencies, that is not where we're looking to go. We're looking to stay within security and access.

Joseph Ritchie

analyst
#46

Great. Thank you so much for coming today, both Mike and Tom. It was great having you here. I appreciate it.

Michael Wagnes

executive
#47

Thank you.

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