Alleima AB (publ) ($ALLEI)
Earnings Call Transcript · April 27, 2026
Highlights from the call
In Q1 2026, Alleima AB reported revenues of SEK 4.6 billion, reflecting a 5% organic decline, primarily due to weak demand in the OCTG segment influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Adjusted EBIT was SEK 386 million, down from SEK 540 million year-over-year, resulting in a margin of 8.4%. Management maintained a cautious outlook, citing ongoing market uncertainties and a projected decline in OCTG volumes for the year, while highlighting resilience in segments like medical and industrial heating. Guidance for full-year CapEx remains at SEK 1.1 billion, with expectations of a neutral currency impact in Q2.
Main topics
- Geopolitical Impact on OCTG: Management noted that the ongoing geopolitical instability has 'reduced our customers' willingness to invest,' particularly affecting the OCTG business. They expect 'lower OCTG volumes in 2026' due to both pre-existing market weaknesses and the current crisis in the Middle East.
- Resilience in Key Segments: Despite challenges, segments such as medical and industrial heating showed strong performance, with management stating that 'key segments and products like medical, umbilicals, nuclear aerospace and industrial heating have better momentum.' This indicates potential growth avenues amidst broader market weaknesses.
- Efficiency Measures: Alleima has begun to see positive impacts from previously announced efficiency measures, contributing approximately SEK 30 million in savings during the quarter. However, management cautioned that these measures 'cannot yet compensate for negative currency effects and lower sales.'
- Currency Effects: The stronger SEK negatively impacted revenues by approximately 6%, with management indicating that 'transaction and translation effects came in at minus SEK 173 million.' They expect a similar neutral currency effect in the upcoming quarter.
- Order Intake Decline: Order intake for the rolling 12-month period fell by 12% organically, attributed to high comps from the previous year and the impact of the OCTG business. Management noted that 'book-to-bill rolling 12 was 90%, which is on the low side,' indicating potential revenue challenges ahead.
Key metrics mentioned
- Revenue: SEK 4.6 billion (vs SEK 4.85 billion est, -5% YoY)
- Adjusted EBIT: SEK 386 million (vs SEK 540 million last year, margin down to 8.4%)
- Order Intake: SEK 16.3 billion (down 12% organically YoY)
- Free Operating Cash Flow: SEK -65 million (seasonally lower in Q1)
- CapEx Guidance: SEK 1.1 billion (maintained for full year)
- Adjusted EPS: SEK 1.14 (impacted by lower adjusted EBIT)
The results indicate significant challenges for Alleima, particularly in the OCTG segment due to geopolitical factors. However, resilience in key segments and a strong financial position provide some optimism. Investors should monitor the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on demand, as well as the effectiveness of efficiency measures and market recovery in the second half of the year.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
Operator[Audio Gap] Hi, everyone, and thank you for listening. So I'll start with the highlights for the first quarter. Well, market uncertainty continued throughout the first quarter with the ongoing geopolitical instability, reducing our customers' willingness to invest. We also have this situation in the Middle East that has impacted the market and in particular, affecting our OCTG business. I'll come back to that shortly. But these circumstances continue to impact our short-cycle business, which began to experience a slowdown roughly at this time last year. On a positive note, key segments such as medical and industrial heating have contributed favorably supported by a strong organic order intake. Look at the order intake for the group rolling 12 months declined 12% organically. Revenues declined 5% organically, also affected by the short-cycle business [indiscernible] somewhat mitigated by medical, nuclear and industrial heating. Adjusted EBIT amounted to SEK 386 million and a margin of 8.4%, down from 10.5% last year, but here diluted roughly 150 basis points by FX. We have started to see positive impact from the earlier announced efficiency measures. They cannot, however, yet compensate for the negative currency effects and the lower sales in the quarter. But given the market and currency circumstances, I believe we, in a good way, still are protecting our profitability while our solid balance sheet enables us to stay with our long-term strategy. And during this quarter, we opened up 2 facilities for industrial heating focused on silicon carbide heating elements 1 in Perth, the U.K., expanding our production capacity on that site and 1 new service center in Concord U.S., which expands our reach of silicon carbide heating products and improves our position on the American market. Moving on to sustainability. The sustainability performance remained solid in the quarter with continued progress in safet. High share recycled steel and a record high sustainability product portfolio. Safety remains our top priority, and I'm pleased that performance continues to move in the right direction. The measures we have implemented are delivering results, and we will continue to build on that progress. Our share recycle still stayed above 81%, both on a rolling 12-month basis and year-on-year. think that is a strong outcome, especially considering our product mix with relatively high share of high nickel products. We saw an increase of CO2 emissions in the quarter. That was mainly due to the cold winter and as temporary cost-driven energy mix effect with somewhat lower share of biogas. And our sustainable product portfolio reached nearly 26% on a rolling 12 months basis, which is a new high. Through close cooperation with customers, we help them address technical challenges and support their sustainability and climate goals. Moving on to the -- our view on the market development. Given the situation in the Middle East, market uncertainty has increased. One could argue that high energy prices would be positive for us. And this is, to some extent, true, but it needs to be high [indiscernible] for the right reasons. And I believe what we see now with oil and gas prices are rather speculative and not driven by increased demand. But we are, of course, monitoring the situation closely, and we are ready to act. Overall, demand stayed weak in Europe, subdued North America or Asia showed strong resilience, but not as strong as last year and several key segments are performing well, and I will walk you through development in each segment, starting with Oil & Gas. Overall, our view on the underlying demand is still solid but more so for umbilicals where the project list of upcoming tenders and potential orders remain strong. And we have increased production pace during the quarter. For the OCTG business, we flagged a bit weaker outlook already in the Q4 report. And given that a large part of that business is exposed to Middle East, we are, of course, affected by the development [indiscernible] arrow now is pointing down. Industrial. European demand is still weak. Asia declined, while North America improved on low levels. [indiscernible], we noted some improvement in Europe, but on lower levels, it's too early to tell, while Asia and Middle East was weaker in North America at low levels. Industrial heating continued to see good growth, mainly driven by Asia and North America, while Europe is still on the weaker side. subsegments like electronics and semiconductors are the main drivers for the growth. Consumer demand continued to be flat, but on a good level. [indiscernible] continued good momentum across the product portfolio and our greenfield investment in Malaysia is going according to plan. and will add additional capacity by the end of the year. In Transportation, titanium to for Aerospace continued to be strong, while marine and automotive is weaker. Many construction demand was stable overall driven by the mining industry with somewhat weaker demand related to the construction industry. Nuclear continued good activity and a solid backlog. Please remember, it's a business with natural long lead times. And over then takes the last one. [indiscernible] Renewable Energy. Hydrogen-related business is negative, otherwise unpriced spots in renewable reinstate for biofuels. So let's look more in detail on the Middle East crisis. I mean, it's not only increasing uncertainty in the market is also causing volatility in energy prices, shipping costs and the risk of inflation has increased. And we are monitoring that those areas closely. I understand that there are questions how this crisis is affecting Alleima. I think at this stage, it's important to focus on what we know and avoid speculation, whether it's negative or positive. At the same time, we are, of course, working with different scenarios. Our OCTG business, part of the oil and gas segment is currently affected both direct indirect exposure to the Middle East region. What we know is that the drilling pace in the region, relevant to the OCTG business remains low. And we're working closely with our customers who is currently operating at a lower pace than normal. And they have asked us to hold back, which means that we have reduced output pace for the time being. And we, of course, also know that similar business in the region are also impacted. What we don't know yet is how long this situation will last or how much of the oil and gas infrastructure in the region that may be damaged and required repair. And if we look at the OCTG business, it's mainly CapEx driven and [indiscernible] year-for-year. And we are expecting lower OCTG volumes in 2026, partly due to the weaker market that predates the Middle East crisis. Now it's been about 8 weeks since the war in Iran began. So we, like the rest of the world are working to get a clearer picture on how this is affecting our business. And we're, of course, also closely following the development and noting cautious customer behavior causing tenders and project decision to be postponed. So let's look at the order intake and revenue in the quarter. Order intake for the rolling 12 months period amounted to SEK 16.3 billion, down 12% organically. This is mainly explained by the major order test received in Q1 last year as well as OCTG funds. Just in for those 2 products, order intake would be slightly positive. For this OCTG business, this is normal given the nature of that business, while the Middle East crisis is affecting the OCTG business negatively. On the positive side, strong order intake from Cantal both in medical and industrial heating. At the same time, we saw the short cycle business continue to be negatively affected by market uncertainties and lower investments in our value chains. Revenue on SEK 4.6 billion, a negative order growth of 5%, where both Kanthal and Strip again, grew while to declined affected by the aforementioned short-cycle business, but also lower revenues from OCTG in the oil and gas and also some lower in Automotive and Transportation segment. Book-to-bill rolling 12 months was 90%, which is on the low side. but not really surprising given the market development and high comps in the project-related business. Book-to-bill rolling 12 was 100%, excluding [indiscernible] and OCTG. We go to the profit, adjusted EBIT decline, which, of course, I'm not pleased with. But as I alluded to earlier, I think we are doing an okay job working on what we can affect. And given the lower volumes in industrial and especially the more profitable chemical and petrochemical segment, gross profit is lower, and we also get lower absorption in some of our factories. Margin was 8.4%, 9.9% if I adjust for FX. The early ramp-up issues with expansion [indiscernible] had only a minor impact on performance in the quarter. [indiscernible] has been operating more efficiently than in and it's not any more restricting production volumes and expect to be fully operational during the summer. We started to see positive effects from the other announced efficiency measures. They cannot, however, yet compensate for negative cures and the lower sales in the quarter. And finally, we had a negative cash flow in the quarter of SEK 65 million due to lower EBITDA and also working capital and cash flow is normally lower in the first half of the year and then the second half. So let's look at the performance of the division, starting with Tube, where we have the largest volumes. I mean Tube has been the division most affected by the market development over the 12 -- last 12 months. Although some areas are performing well, such as umbilical, where we're ramping up output for 2026, also titanium [indiscernible] for aerospace and the Asia market. However, overall volumes remain on the low side. Order intake rolling 12 months period declined organically by 19%, and that is on back on the major STT order in Q1 2025 and somewhat high comps in oil and gas as well as the short-cycle business. Revenue declined organically by 9%, affected by the aforementioned short cycle business, but also lower revenues from OCTG in the oil and gas and automotive in the transport segment. Book-to-bill amounted to 85%. EBIT margin of 8.9% and 9.2% excluding FX effects of SEK 23 million year-over-year. And the fact that Tube has the lowest relative FX headwind stems from the fact that Tube as most of the project-related business and therefore, the biggest hedges but also the fact that they make the biggest purchases of raw material in U.S. dollars, which, of course, is mitigating the negative effect. Moving over to Kanthal. Kanthal continued the positive trends seen over the past few quarters with a broad-based growth and a strong performance in the quarter. I think they had a great achievement. Rolling 12 order intake grew organically by 14% driven by [indiscernible] and also industrial heating, especially in North America and in APAC. Revenues grew 8% organically back for medical, consumer and industrial leading with strong performance in the same regions. And adjusted EBIT margin of 17% or 18.8% adjusted for a negative SEK 41 million coming from FX is a good level coming from a solid product mix. All in all, a really solid performance from Kanthal in quarter 1. Strip. I think also is doing a lot of good things, for instance, with a channel partner network and also to improve the cost position, aiming to again be a margin contributor to the group. Rolling 12 order intake declined organically by 16%, driven by all segments, but this is heavily impacted by the negative development within the hydrogen business. While we should call it the original Strip is still on a good level. Revenues grew 5% organically driven by especially [indiscernible]. And book-to-bill amounted to 88%. Adjusted EBIT margin was 5.9%, but heavily impacted by FX negative SEK 29 million year-over-year, and the underlying margin was 12.6%, where the consumer segment was strong across all regions also solid performance from Strip. With that, over to you, Johan.
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesThank you, Goran. So the financial summary and starting with the table to the right, Order intake for the rolling 12-month period amounted to SEK 16.3 billion, corresponding to an organic decline of 12%. We had negative impact from currency and alloys of 6% and 2%, respectively. Totaling a growth of minus 19%. The quarterly revenues reached SEK 4.6 billion with a negative organic growth of 5%, including the U.S. tariffs that is estimated to impact us with plus 70 basis points. Also for revenues, we note a significant impact from FX, primarily from a stronger SEK against the U.S. dollar, which, in total, had a negative impact of 6%. Alloy effects impacted by minus 1 on quarterly revenues. And looking at the coming quarter, we see a neutral currency and alloy effect for for that time period. We have no contribution from structure, meaning acquisitions or divestments. As our latest acquisition, [indiscernible], now has been with us for the full year and no longer affect comparability. Going back to the big table on the left, where I'll get back to adjusted EBIT in the coming slide. The reported EBIT declined to SEK 391 million, affected negatively by lower revenues, FX and items affecting comparability, while helped somewhat by positive metal price effects and the savings from the targeted measures. On the items affecting comparability, we now have in total taken SEK 344 million of the estimated SEK 400 million for the targeted measures that we communicated in the earnings call for the third quarter. The remainder is expected to be taken in the coming 3 quarters. Net financial items for the quarter amounted to minus SEK 11 million compared to plus SEK 13 million last year, and this is mainly driven by valuation of derivatives. The normalized tax rate came out at 24.5% for the quarter. Free operating cash flow came out at minus SEK 65 million in the quarter, which I also get back to in the coming slide. And finally, adjusted EPS for the quarter at SEK 1.14, impacted negatively by the lower adjusted EBIT. So looking at the bridge then for adjusted EBIT, where we started last year is SEK 540 million and a margin of 10.5 compared to this year's SEK 386 million with a margin of 8.4. And like Goran pointed out, FX is a big factor behind the development. This quarter dilution was 150 basis points. But of course, we also are affected by the negative organic development stemming from the weaker markets, especially in the short-cycle business, and therefore, impacted by under-absorption effects. Meanwhile, we also had some contribution from the savings related to the targeted measures with positive effects of roughly SEK 30 million in the quarter. The SEK 6 million contribution in structure comes from an M&A-related cost booked last year. Moving over to balance sheet and capital efficiency. Net working capital decreased in absolute terms year-over-year, mainly due to volume and currency effects, but increased as a percentage of revenues to 35.5% due to lower quarterly sales. The sequential increase of net working capital in the graph can mainly be derived from an increase of accounts receivables given that invoicing was tilted more towards the end of the first quarter. Capital employed, excluding cash, decreased year-over-year to SEK 16.2 billion, mainly driven by lower net working capital. The return on capital employed, excluding cash, based on reported operating profit so that -- meaning that we include metal price effects and items expecting comparability was 5.0% for the rolling 12-month period down from 11.9% last year coming from the lower reported operating profit due to the reasons described before. Looking at our free operating cash flow for the quarter. As you can see on the graph to the right, the Q1 cash flow normally is lower than the preceding quarters as per normal seasonality as we during this quarter start preparing for the Q3 summer shutdown and maintenance. Moving over to the table on the left. I think we've touched on the EBIT and EBITDA already looking at the noncash items, which most commonly refers to cash or noncash effects from provisions or provision releases. And this year, it's also affected by cash flow effects from the targeted measures, the restructuring activities. So that is about minus SEK 20 million from that in this year's cash flow. We note the negative impact from change in working capital, mainly due to higher accounts receivable coming from the strong invoicing at the end of the quarter, but also increased inventory as per normal seasonality. The decrease in CapEx year-over-year mainly comes from timing on the ongoing projects. Amortization of these liabilities is only slightly higher this year. And all in all, this leaves us with a free operating cash flow of minus SEK 65 million. And as I pointed out, this follows seasonality as cash flow normally is lower in the first half of the year when we start to prepare for the upcoming summer stop in the third quarter. And looking at our financial position, it remains strong, and we are well below our financial target of a net debt-to-equity ratio below 0.3x. At the quarter end, we were at a negative 0.04x. Net pension liabilities decreased to SEK 699 million from last year's SEK 839 million mainly as a result of higher discount rates. Leasing liabilities are slightly lower than last year, and our cash position continues to be strong, and we have a net cash position of SEK 596 million, which will come in use as there is a dividend proposal of SEK 2.5 per share for the AGM later this week. So looking at the guidance and how we guided prior to the quarter and the outcome. On CapEx, we guide on full year. And so far, the CapEx spend for the first quarter is SEK 160 million, and worth noting that normally the second half of the year is the more CapEx-heavy part of the year. Currency. Transaction and translation effects came in at minus SEK 173 million, where we estimated for minus SEK 240 million, where the difference mainly is due to a weaker Swedish krona towards the end of the quarter. In total, the currency effect in the total currency effect, the transaction and translation effects were partly offset by a bridge effect from this year's hedges and revaluations and last year's negative revaluations. So in total, giving a bridge effect of plus SEK 80 million. So taking the total currency bridge effect on EBIT to minus SEK 93 million. Metals affected us positively with SEK 8 million, where we guided for minus EUR 50 million, and the reason is mainly increased metal prices during the quarter. Normalized tax rate came in at 24.5% for the quarter where we were guiding for 23% to 25% for the full year. Moving over to the guidance for the second quarter. So full year CapEx, we keep the full year CapEx guidance of SEK 1.1 billion coming from growth projects, for example, steam generated tubing capacity increase in some [indiscernible] industrial heating in Japan and medical in Malaysia and a little less than half of the total is for maintenance. Currency effects for Q2 based on the rates as per 23rd of April. So last Thursday. The transaction and translation effects are estimated to minus SEK 60 million on the back of a stronger. Looking at the metal price effects based on metal prices and currency rates also 23rd of April last Thursday, we anticipate a positive effect of SEK 150 million for quarter 2. And here it's worth probably worth reminding about the dynamics that the price increase for nickel or molybdenum or chromium over time leads to positive metal price effects, while a stronger SEK, for example, against the U.S. dollar has the opposite effect. And the tax rate for the full year 2026, we expect a normalized tax rate in the range of 23% to 25%. So by that, I hand back to you, Goran, for outlook and summary.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesThanks, Johan. Yes. So the outlook -- I mean, the start of the second quarter has been influenced by the development in the Middle East, further dampening an already subdued willingness to invest. But we maintain a solid backlog in several key segments, providing good visibility into near-term deliveries, mainly then in umbilical in oil and gas, industrial heating, medical and in nuclear continue to seek challenges in other more short-cycle customer segments, which already have effect and is expected to continue to affect short-term deliveries Product mix is a tip remain broadly in line with the first quarter. And finally, cash flow tends to be lower in the first half compared to the second half of the year. So coming to a summary then. Well, market uncertainty increased during the quarter and customers are postponing their investment decision. And I think the visibility for near-term deliveries deliveries worsen, especially with the OCTG business in the Middle East, also the short-cycle business still on low volumes. Meanwhile, key segments and products like medical, umbelicals, nuclear aerospace and industrial heating have better momentum. And I think despite the turbulence, I believe, we again showcased an underlying resilience and earnings are therefore on an okay level, partly driven by the positive development in Kanthal. FX was again a major negative factor in the quarter. And we're confident staying on our long-term strategy, investing for the future and mitigating where needed to ensure long-term competitiveness, enabled by our solid finances. With that, back to you, Frida.
Frida Adrian
ExecutivesThank you. We will now begin the Q&A session. Please feel free to ask a question via the webcast or directly through the conference call. Obviously, please go ahead. Do we have any questions?
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Kaleb Solomon with SEB.
Kaleb Solomon
AnalystsFirst, on OCTG, you mentioned that the sort of market conditions currently are mainly impacting oil and gas negatively. And you touched on this, Johan. And I appreciate this sort of geopolitical turbulence is bad for investment appetite overall. But at the same time, I would have thought that higher oil prices, I mean, even if it's for the wrong reasons, should increase rig activity outside of Asia, which should be a positive somewhat at least for demand. So are you seeing or expecting to see any positive impact from that at all if prices stay up here for a while? Or do you simply expect a sort of negative impact to outweigh any potential benefit from higher prices?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesThanks. I have expected this question. I think what I'll try to be clear on is because it's easy to start speculating a long-term good high oil price is normally good for us. But I don't want to sort of fall into the trap of saying that. Well, now it looks better because we haven't seen any evidence of that so far. What we have seen is that the drilling pace in that region has been reduced. And with that, we have reduced our own outlook. So I'm another one, that is my comment. Of course, we have scenarios with a long-term higher oil price of what that means for us, but I don't want to speculate on that.
Kaleb Solomon
AnalystsIs it fair to say drilling activity outside of that region has increased even if it's [indiscernible] that region?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesI mean the war has been ongoing for 8 weeks. The timing on projects like this as a much longer lead. So we haven't seen anything like that yet. And both you and I can speculate what happens happens if this is a long-term thing. But I don't want to come into that. Umbilicals on the other hand, as I said, we see that as positive. We are in is the pace and umbilical is almost not at all impacted of the Middle East crisis. due to there's a lot of onshore and it's very shallow workers in that region.
Kaleb Solomon
AnalystsOkay, that's clear. And you also mentioned that the production constraints related to the expansion [indiscernible] became less pronounced during the quarter. But can you clarify what the margin effect was in Q1?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesIt's almost neglectable, but we're running a higher shift than we would need for the volumes. Of course, it's cost for that fit, but that is that is neglected look at the large numbers. And of course, there's a double effect here that the press is working better than before. But of course, we also have a slower market, so the need is also less. So it's -- you can neglect that impact.
Kaleb Solomon
AnalystsOkay. That's clear. And then sort of a similar question. You mentioned that the cost savings program had some effect this quarter. So could you tell us how much that was roughly? And sort of as a follow-up to that, if I recall correctly from last quarter, you said you expect to reach sort of full effect by Q4 and maybe half of that by Q2. So what's reasonable to assume for Q3?
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesWe can start by Q1 then. So that was SEK 30 million, 3 0 in savings.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesSo I have a Q3 number, but I will take the average of full effect.
Operator
OperatorNext question comes from Adrian Gilani with ABG.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsJust to start off, a follow-up on the oil and gas outlook. When you talk about the weakness on OCTG, you mentioned both a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect I understand, but what is the indirect effect that is impacting OCTG, but not umbilicals?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesI think what really are indirect and direct. What we see is that simply said, our customer and the customer's customer is not right now the need as much tubes as we originally thought. And that is why we have reduced our output for the time being. How long are we going do it? I don't know. Then of course, there is a business outside Middle East, and we are impacted in the same way as our main competitors, of course. So the fight of contracts outside Middle East has, of course, increased. I think that is what we mean with indirect effects.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsOkay. I understand. And then I guess on a similar note with to oil prices have the higher natural gas prices had an immediate impact on demand in the industrial heating segment as well.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesNot [indiscernible] I can say. I think it's so clear what is sort of driving the increase is more the digitalization and the semicon, electronics, long term, industrial leading will benefit for higher gas prices, of course. But that is too early to see.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsOkay. I understand. And then a question on the outlook in the Industrial segment. You choose to have the arrow pointing down still in industrial I think that's a bit surprising since we've seen PMIs both in the U.S. and the EU bouncing in recent months. So should this mean you should see some improvement on the short cyclical sales.
Goran Bjorkman
Executives[indiscernible] I think at some point, you reach the bottom. And of course, moving into second quarter, it was the second quarter last year where we started to be impacted by the tariffs and the uncertainties. So from that point of view, we will meet sort of weaker comps. And from that sense, I think your question is very rational.
Adrian Gilani Göransson
AnalystsOkay. I understand. And then a final 1 for me, more a mechanical question on the FX impact. When you guide for SEK 60 million headwind in Q2, can you tell us anything about how much of that do you expect to mitigate with hedges as well.
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesI mean I think it's -- with minus 60, I think the hedge effect will be very limited. So that would this this time, let me think we had about -- well, no, so I think minus SEK 60 million is fairly fair. We will probably have some hedge effects, but they will be fairly low in the grand scheme of things.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from Anders Akerblom with Nordea.
Anders Akerblom
AnalystsYes. I wanted to ask firstly about nuclear. So as you've said many times, long lead times, of course, but not really something new. So I was wondering if you're seeing anything in particular in the project pipeline that sort of prompting your downgrade of the outlook in this market?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesIt's not downgrade is more flattish on a good level. There is a project list as we normally say, both in Europe, Americas and Asia. I'm positive on that. but have also been around for so long. So a quarter is a very short time period in that business. So we still want to see the decisions coming through.
Anders Akerblom
AnalystsAnd sorry, maybe I'm reading it incorrectly, but the arrow, so to speak, that you used to be up and now it was sort of, as you say, flattish, but between that a downgrade. So that's sort of more how I out. But so basically, you want to see orders [indiscernible]
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesContinue to see it as very good.
Anders Akerblom
AnalystsOkay. And then in Tube, I was wondering if you could give some more details on the ramp-up in umbilicals and sort of what that will imply for overall production capacity?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesWe increased capacity. There is not one number because it -- I mean, part of the factory is of the cost drivers meters in some part of the factory cost driver is upon sort of volume. But I would say between 10% and 15% increase depending on the sort of the size mix of the product. 10% to 15% is a good number to use.
Anders Akerblom
AnalystsOkay. And following up on the previous question with regards to sort of the short-cycle business and improving PMIs. Could you give any sort of just general reflection about sort of the trends during the quarter, what you've seen into early Q2, that would be very helpful.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesWhat we have seen in the quarter One important segment is, for instance, [indiscernible]. We started to see some growth in Europe. I think that's very promising. It's on low level still. I think it's fair to -- [indiscernible] to speculation. It's fair to believe that at some point, I think a lot of the [indiscernible] industry in Europe is sort of maintenance driven. At some point, you start have a maintenance debt and they start to need to invest. I'm not sure that's the case, but I think that's a good estimation. Asia a little bit lower than before, but 1 should understand that, that comes from very high levels. And we've had a couple of years where especially fertilizer has been extremely strong. when I met with customers in November, they were sort of saying that we're not sure they're going to keep that pace for the next year. So I think we see -- I think we see it as sort of maybe a couple of quarters slowdown, but on good levels. And I said on the industrial before, I think sooner or later, you meet very low comps and then probably will reach the bottom.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Viktor Trollsten with Danske.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsPerhaps firstly, just to read your comments correctly, Goran, but for the outlook for the second quarter, you mentioned that call it, general economic climate has welcomed during the first quarter. Could you relate that to the cadence of your on your orders, I guess what I'm asking is that all else equal, does this mean that Q2 orders will be lower than Q1? Or what does that mean in terms of orders? That's my first.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesThat is not necessarily what we mean. And I can -- I understand that you could read it. I think what you should read into it is that the overall geopolitics with Middle East is sort of the added on uncertainty. If this lasts long and we have a global energy crisis, inflation. That will not be good for a layman will not be good for most companies. I think that is what you should be not necessary that we view sort of direct orders on a lower level. I think OCTG is a reasonable believe it will be lower.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsAnd how much of total sales is that now basically? 10%?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesNo, it's less than 10%. I don't want to give you that number because it varies from here to this project orders, so they can vary between the years, but now it's less than 10%.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsOkay. No, that's fair. But then it sounds like more like -- it's not like you have seen them so much into your actual order numbers more than deal that is more like a warning that inflation, et cetera, is not wouldn't help you?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesI think I've said this before, it's more difficult than ever to predict the future. I think I mean the Middle East, if that continues, it's not good. On the other hand, I mean I'm really pleased that we see strong growth in the industrial heating, for instance, [indiscernible] continue going aerospace continue but we have a good view on umbilical. So there are big parts of our business that we could be very positive as well.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsThat's super. And then perhaps to my second question because once upon a time, we received the organic order growth on parties, and now we get it on the 12 months to sales with argument that that's the sort of best indicator for for organic sales growth, if I'm not [indiscernible] I know that you have a lot of different lead times within the business, of course. But just to hear your towards how we should think about it, that last 12-month book-to-bill below. What does that mean for organic sales growth ahead if you can help us because there's not moving parts there?
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesI mean I think one thing you could read into , and we have been clear ever since quarter 2 last year is that the order backlog in the short cycle has been short for a long time. That has been affecting the revenue, and it will continue to affect the revenue until it goes up again. And that is thematically comps will be lower, but that's sort of math. And industrial heating I mean -- that is pretty short cycle as well, at least part of it. So there, I think one could be more optimistic on forward. The SGT and OCTG adjusted [indiscernible] Yes, we could talk about that. Yes. But if you -- if we exclude SGT with its really high comps in the first quarter and the OCTG with the issues we see right now. If you summarize all other segments, it's slightly positive on rolling 12 months.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsNo, that's very helpful, actually. Super. I appreciate that. And then just finally, and perhaps I missed it, but on the U.S. tariffs, which you actually mentioned is a 70 bps positive contribution. I mean what was that -- should we expect that in the coming quarters also year-over-year.
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesI mean this is basically -- I mean, of course, we don't know if tariffs change, et cetera. But -- this is the last quarter where we clearly have a difference between the comparison period and the current period. So the 70 basis points positive that we had on top line from tariffs is while meeting sort of before the update of tariffs in the U.S.
Viktor Trollsten
AnalystsBasically pricing or...
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesYes, yes. Yes, it's pushing the tariffs forward to the customer. So the tariffs that we carry when we import material, we then put on the price to the customer.
Operator
OperatorThere are no more questions over the phone.
Frida Adrian
ExecutivesVery good. Let me say thank you all for calling in and for really good questions as usual. This concludes the call, and we wish you all a very good day. Thank you.
Goran Bjorkman
ExecutivesThank you.
Johan Eriksson
ExecutivesThanks.
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