ALLETE, Inc. (ALE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and welcome to the ALLETE fourth quarter 2022 year-end financial results call. Today's call is being recorded. Certain statements contained in this conference call that are not descriptions of historical facts are forward-looking statements, such as terms defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because such statements can include risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in filings made by the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many of the factors that will determine the company's future results are beyond the ability of management to control or predict. Listeners should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect management's views only as the date hereof. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Again, welcome to the ALLETE fourth quarter 2022 year-end financial results call. [Operator Instructions] For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the conference over to ALLETE Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bethany Owen.

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. With me are ALLETE's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Steve Morris; Frank Frederickson, Minnesota Power's Vice President of Customer Experience and Engineering Services; and Jeff Scissons, ALLETE Clean Energy's Chief Financial and Strategy Officer. Corresponding slides can be found on our website at allete.com in the Investors section, and we'll call out each slide number as we go through today's presentation. This morning, ALLETE reported full year 2022 earnings of $3.38 per share on net income of $189.3 million compared to 2021 earnings of $3.23 per share on net income of $169.2 million. In a few minutes, Steve will provide more details on ALLETE's 2022 financial results as well as our 2023 earnings guidance. Although our financial results for the year were below our expectations, we are committed to ALLETE's long-term earnings per share growth objective of 5% to 7%, and I am confident in our ability to achieve this for investors. As you see on slide 3 of the presentation, we're making significant progress putting sustainability into action, and our strategy will provide value to our customers and our shareholders for years to come. While we serve our customers with excellence and provide exciting opportunities for our employees, we take pride in creating value for our shareholders. ALLETE continues to pay an attractive dividend while we strategically position all of our companies for sustainable growth over the long term. Earlier this month, our Board of Directors approved an increased dividend of more than 4%, reflecting the Board's confidence in the growth outlook for ALLETE. In spite of some headwinds encountered in 2022, our accomplishments were many. Just a few examples include the approval of Minnesota Power's integrated resource plan and the resulting $600 million expansion of our capital expenditure plan, increasing rate base growth to 11% over the next 5 years; Minnesota Power's track record for near perfect system reliability and storm response, all while keeping customers' bills below the national average; the MISO Tranche 1 approval of the Northern Reliability transmission project; advancement of our shared vision with Grid United for a future first in the nation transmission expansion as well as the acquisition and integration of new energy equity. These are just a few of our many operational positioning and strategic successes, all driven by ALLETE's dedicated team of talented employees. On the regulatory front, I'm proud of our team's thoughtful stakeholder engagement throughout the year. Superior Water, Light & Power finalized its rate case in late 2022 with final rates in effect as of January 1, 2023. The Public Service Commission of Wisconsin improved an annual increase of $3.3 million, along with a return on equity of 10% and a 55% equity ratio. On January 23 of this year, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission made its determination on Minnesota Power's 2021 rate case, including a return on equity of 9.65%, and a 52.5% equity ratio. While we are disappointed that the overall rate case decision was below our request and below the recommendations of the administrative law judge, we're evaluating options and next steps, which may include clarification or reconsideration of certain items in the case, and we anticipate filing another rate request later this year. Constructive regulatory outcomes are critical to our clean energy transition. Minnesota Power is leading the state in providing renewable energy to customers with a strong track record of near perfect reliability and creative hard work by our team to keep rates affordable for our customers. We're grateful for the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission's recent approval of Minnesota Power's IRP, and a critical component of our ability to execute this exciting plan is earning a reasonable return on our investments and recovering costs in a timely fashion through Minnesota's regulatory framework. Minnesota Power is committed to earning its allowed rate of return for shareholders while caring for our customers. We'll continue to advance a carbon-free energy future while providing safe and reliable service and keeping customer bills as low as possible. As utilities are asked to do more and faster, we expect our rate review request to become more frequent going forward, and we're confident that our regulators will support our work on all of these important fronts. Meanwhile, Minnesota Power is making significant progress on our vision to provide 100% carbon-free energy to customers. Our recently approved IRP is transformative, adding 700 megawatts of wind and regional solar, supporting energy storage, ceasing coal operations at Minnesota Power's two remaining coal units by 2030 and 2035, respectively, and investing in a resilient and flexible transmission and distribution grid. Already providing 50% renewable energy today, Minnesota Power expects to provide more than 70% renewable energy to customers by 2030. We are engaged in the RFP process for the additional wind, solar and energy storage identified in this IRP and we'll provide updates on the progress of these projects throughout the year. In addition, just a few weeks ago, the state of Minnesota enacted new legislation requiring electric utilities to source retail sales with 100% carbon-free energy by 2040. This is clearly an ambitious goal, but our company has been on an incredibly ambitious clean energy journey as well. We're pleased that lawmakers listened closely as we describe the state of technology and the investments necessary to build a modern grid. And as a result, they included important provisions for utilities and regulators in the legislation. We support a carbon-free energy future with a transition that protects reliability, safety and affordability and ensures equity by leaving no one behind. There is a lot of work ahead of us with our customers, our regulators, our communities and other stakeholders to get all of that right. It will take everyone working together to achieve these ambitious goals, and the state must be a strong partner in supporting the bold initiatives that are required to achieve a truly sustainable carbon-free future. We'll build on our current momentum and factor this new Minnesota legislation requirements into Minnesota Power's next IRP filing in the spring of 2025. So, there is much more to come. Related to Minnesota Power's recently approved IRP, we've updated our capital investment plan on slide 4 to reflect this transition. Steve will elaborate more on this in a minute, but this CapEx plan is transformative, with significant clean energy and transmission infrastructure investments over the next 5 years. As transformative as that 5-year CapEx plan is, we have significant investment plans well beyond 2027, which are not currently included in our CapEx table that are described in slide 5. These include the additional investments in generation and infrastructure that will be needed as we responsibly and reliably transition Minnesota Power's two remaining coal units and to comply with the new Minnesota carbon-free legislation. We also expect to participate in the MISO Tranche 2 transmission projects, and as part of our high-voltage transmission strategy we'll leverage our strategic geographical position to advance interregional transmission projects that support reliability and the clean energy transition. So, as we execute our strategy in the near term, we're always planning for the future and ALLETE's future is bright with important parts of our long-term investment strategy already in motion. As an example, on slide 6, you'll see additional information on ALLETE's exciting recent announcement of our engagement with Grid United to develop the North Plains Connector, a 370-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line from North Dakota to Montana. This HVDC corridor will be the first of its kind transmission project to connect 3 regional energy markets, MISO, WECC and SPP, creating 3,000 megawatts of transfer capacity between the middle of the country and the West Coast. More importantly, it will help ease transmission system congestion, increase resiliency and reliability, and enable rapid sharing of renewable energy across a vast area with diverse weather patterns. The project is subject to regulatory approvals and permitting and is estimated to cost approximately $2.5 billion. ALLETE's share of this investment is expected to be at least 35%, which will extend and support ALLETE's further growth into the next decade. Moving to slide 7 and ALLETE's newest company, we couldn't be more excited about New Energy Equity joining the ALLETE family of businesses. New Energy exceeded our original projections for the year and has continued to increase its total pipeline of prospective projects. Along with the Inflation Reduction Act benefits, which could provide investment tax credit upside of up to 50%, the New Energy team's solid execution and strong pipeline of future projects have only enhanced our confidence in the resiliency and strength of this business and the value the company provides to ALLETE. Finally, ALLETE Clean Energy's earnings this year were materially affected by congestion and market volatility at its Caddo facilities. Addressing the implications of these issues for both the Diamond Spring and Caddo wind projects is our priority, and we're evaluating all alternatives to improve project economics. All of the sites operated well in 2022, and we continue to believe ALLETE Clean Energy with its talented team is an important strategic contributor to ALLETE. As we move forward into 2023, ALLETE Clean Energy's strategy is focused on maximizing the value of the company's fleet, and we look forward to updating you on progress throughout the year. Along with creative solutions for our customers and great opportunities for our amazing employees, ALLETE's mix of businesses offers differentiated value to investors with significant near- and longer-term earnings growth, an attractive dividend and strong positioning to thrive in the clean energy future. Now, I'll turn it over to Steve for further details on our 2022 financial results, 2023 guidance and key drivers of ALLETE's long-term growth.

Thanks, Bethany, and good morning, everyone. I would like to remind you that we filed our 10-K this morning along with an 8-K that provides details of our 2023 earnings guidance. Please refer to slides 8 through 11 for the quarter and year ended 2022 income statement details as well as 2023 earnings guidance details. Today, ALLETE reported 2022 earnings of $3.38 per share on net income of $189.3 million. Earnings for 2021 were $3.23 per share on net income of $169.2 million. These financial results were below our third quarter guidance update where we expected to be near the midpoint of our 2022 earnings guidance range of $3.60 to $3.90 per share. The primary reasons relate to recording a full year of interim rate reserves in the fourth quarter for the outcome in the Minnesota Power rate case decision, further costs and losses taken out ALLETE Clean Energy on the now completed Northern Wind project and weather impacts in the fourth quarter due to winter storm events. Please refer to slide 10 for details. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2022, ALLETE's consolidated results for the fourth quarter were below our expectations with earnings of $0.90 per share compared to $1.18 per share in the fourth quarter in 2021. ALLETE's Regulated Operations segment recorded net income of $30.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to $29.7 million in 2021. Earnings reflected higher net income at Minnesota Power due to the implementation of interim rates in 2022, net of interim rate reserves. As a result of the rate case decision earlier this year, a full year of interim rate reserves of approximately $12 million after tax were reflected entirely in the fourth quarter of 2022. The quarter was also impacted by increased purchase power cost as well as higher operating and maintenance expenses. Winter storm events in Minnesota Power's service territory resulted in additional O&M expenses of approximately $2 million after tax. A few thoughts on the Minnesota Power rate case-- at a hearing on January 23, 2023, the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission approved a return on common equity of 9.65% and a 52.5% equity ratio. On an annualized basis, the rate case outcome resulted in additional revenue of approximately $70 million. Accordingly, as the final retail rate increase was lower than interim rates, Minnesota Power recorded a reserve for interim rate refunds of approximately $12 million after tax as of December 31, 2022. Turning to our other segments, ALLETE Clean Energy recorded fourth quarter 2022 net income of $1.3 million compared to $14.6 million in 2021. Net income in 2022 for the Caddo and Diamond Spring wind energy facilities were impacted by market volatility and transmission congestion in the Southwest Power Pool as well as additional costs and losses on the sale of the Northern Wind project. Weather events negatively impacted fourth quarter earnings by approximately $1.2 million after tax. Our Corporate and Other businesses recorded net income of $19.9 million in 2022 compared to net income of $17.6 million in 2021. 2022 included earnings from New Energy, which had a record fourth quarter of projects closing, exceeding our expectations. There were also higher land sales at ALLETE Properties, higher earnings from our investment in the Nobles 2 wind energy facility and earnings from Minnesota solar projects placed into service in 2022. Earnings in 2021 included an $8.5 million after-tax gain from South Shore Energy's sale of a portion of its interest in the Nemadji Trail Energy Center. As Bethany shared, we have made good progress on key initiatives in 2022 setting the stage for improved financial performance in 2023. I'll now turn to our 2023 earnings guidance. Please refer to slide 11 for further reference. Today, we initiated 2023 earnings guidance of $3.55 to $3.85 per share on net income of $200 million to $220 million. This guidance range is comprised of our regulated operations segment within a range of $2.50 to $2.70 per share and ALLETE Clean Energy, New Energy and our other businesses within a range of $1.05 to $1.15 per share. First, a few comments on our regulated operations outlook for 2023. Overall, regulated earnings are expected to be similar to 2022. Our guidance reflects the impacts from Minnesota Power's retail rate case decision and industrial sales slightly lower than 2022. We expect a slight increase in operations and maintenance expenses of 2% over 2022 due to inflationary pressures. Depreciation and property tax expenses are expected to increase by 7%, primarily due to [indiscernible] and service. As a result of the MPUC's decision on Minnesota Power's rate case, we expect to earn a return on equity of 8.5% in 2023, significantly below the authorized 9.65%. Consequently, we are planning to file a request for a rate increase November 1 of this year with a 2024 calendar test year. Interim rates would be expected to go into effect on January 1, 2024. We are committed to earning our allowed return on equity at Minnesota Power [indiscernible] we will manage our discretionary costs and improve operational efficiencies. For example, from 2017 through 2022, Minnesota Power's operating and maintenance expenses increased by an average of less than 1% on a compound average growth rate. Looking at Clean Energy's outlook for 2023-- ALLETE Clean Energy expects normal wind resources in 2023 with total wind generation of approximately 4 million megawatt hours this year, similar to last year. Our guidance also reflects the sale of the 92-megawatt Red Barn build transfer projects in the first half of 2023 and improving financial performance for the portfolio. However, we still expect challenges in the Southwest Power Pool market for the Oklahoma wind energy facilities. At New Energy, an impressive number, 44 megawatts of projects closed in the fourth quarter of 2022. The strong fourth quarter allowed New Energy to exceed the acquisition plan for 2022 and set the stage for a solid 2023 and beyond. New Energy continues to gain momentum with more than 2,000 megawatts in the robust and growing pipeline. New York, Illinois and Minnesota continue to be strong markets for New Energy while Maryland, New Mexico and Virginia are new promising markets with strong prospects and opportunities starting in 2023. We expect net income of approximately $16 million to $17 million at New Energy and note that 2023 will not be impacted by purchase price accounting or transaction costs. We anticipate approximately $7 million in earnings for ALLETE's investment in Minnesota solar projects, and we expect similar earnings from BNI Energy and our investment in the Nobles 2 wind energy facility in 2023, with slightly lower earnings at ALLETE Properties. We expect minimal equity needs in 2023, but do expect earnings per share dilution of approximately $0.10 per share due to the increased average number of shares outstanding as a result of our March 2022 secondary offering. As stated previously, we are committed and confident in our ability to achieve ALLETE's long-term earnings per share growth objective of 5% to 7%, primarily fueled by the historic clean energy transformation underway. As we customarily do at the beginning of each year, we have updated our 5-year capital expenditure table in the 10-K. Also, please refer back to slide 4. This updated plan reflects $3.3 billion of CapEx, which is an increase of approximately $600 million over our CapEx plan shared in November of last year, reflective of the final IRP order. This plan highlights significant clean energy infrastructure investments over the next 5 years, translating to a compound annual rate base growth of 11%. We will continue to navigate this clean energy transition as we have in the past with customer rates and overall competitiveness in mind. I'll now turn it back to Bethany.

Thanks, Steve. We're obviously very pleased with all that our team has accomplished in 2022, and we're already making significant strides here in the beginning of 2023. Demands for cleaner energy are increasing, providing new and diverse investment opportunities for ALLETE's businesses. We believe our reputation as a leader in this clean energy environment will continue to attract capital and we're committed to delivering value to our investors. The very foundation of our growth strategy at ALLETE is sustainability in all of its forms -- people, planet and prosperity. As always, we are committed to doing all of this in the absolutely right way. Slide 12 contains links to information on this work, including our recently updated corporate sustainability report. Our CSR illustrates how we're building on our strong track record, not only to mitigate climate change risks, but to create a clean energy future through just, equitable and meaningful change, making a difference in doing our part to make our world a better place for everyone. ALLETE's family of businesses is well positioned today for an even brighter future. This is truly an exciting time for ALLETE, and we look forward to sharing more with you in the coming quarters. At this time, I'll ask the operator to open the line for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Richard Sunderland of JPMorgan.

Starting with the CapEx revisions, I guess, on one hand, could you walk from the resources identified in your IRP settlement to the assumptions banked into this capital plan? I'm curious what's driving your line of sight here versus leaving the projects outside of CapEx's upside into the RFP process.

A great question, as you know, you have our CapEx from November EEI where we reflected the initial IRP. With this outcome from the final IRP, we've added 100 megawatts of solar-- again, subject to RFPs, we added 100 megawatts of solar, 150 megawatts of wind, and we added storage about 200 megawatt hours. Those are all incremental that we did not have in the initial CapEx plan when we met in November. So, subject to RFPs, we've talked about the solar and storage, we feel very good about our RFP prospects about that. The wind we've said we had-- previously, we had a 200-megawatt partnership in there. The IRP was up to 400, so there was another 200 out there. We feel confident on the other 150, so we left off 50, put in 150 megawatts.

Just in terms of the confidence there, is that based on interconnection positions or what you're seeing on the cost side relative to PPA options? Just curious for any color there as to how you kind of banked that risk-adjusted point here, I guess.

Yes, very good question. So, as we talked about at EEI, the solar and storage are regional in our areas, right? So, there was a little bit of a recognition for solar storage in and around the Boswell site, we're confident in that there. So, the wind one will-- we're also confident in our ability to get that -- along with the wind project, the partnership project as well. But, again, as we talked about at EEI, solar storage were more regional in nature. So, we think we are in a very good position to win those RFPs.

That's very helpful. Then, just in light of this revision on the CapEx side, what are your equity needs associated with financing this plan? Can you speak a little bit to the timing and potential methods to address the equity?

So, as we've mentioned already on the call, no equity needs in 2023. So, as the CapEx starts up a little bit more in earnest here in '24, '25 -- we're probably looking mid-2024. But, we have increasing cash flow, so obviously, that's the primary source of our funding for this. Second, as we talked about at EEI in the past, we do have to maintain a regulated capital structure, so that's 50-50 equity and debt. So, that will help round it out. We also talked about forming a HoldCo, which gives us greater financial flexibility. Finally, as we just look at our capital allocation and financing options, as we always do, we'll maximize the value of all our assets with opportunistic redeployment of capital into our regulated CapEx plan.

So, just to be clear, it sounds like there are multiple levers in focus, but on a timing front, you'd be looking at more like mid-2024 and beyond? Then, for classifying, is that subject to examining the HoldCo asset recycling and these other levers?

Yes. Yes, that's fair.

Got it. Just, sorry, one final one for me. There's been a lot of changes in light of the CapEx side on the rate case order. When you talk about the 5% to 7% growth, is that now based on the 2023 guidance, 2022 -- actually, what's the right base to think about for that number?

Yes, I'd use '22, actual [ 3 38 ].

Our next question will come from Brian Russo of Sidoti.

Just when I look at slide 4 of the presentation regarding the CapEx, it looks like the majority of the CapEx can qualify for your rider mechanisms. Can you just remind me how those mechanisms work? Is it full recovery of and on the investments, almost real time or on an annual basis? Just trying to get a sense of the trajectory of the margins from riders in between rate cases, which sometimes historically has created a stair step type profile to your earnings?

Great question, Brian. Yes, so riders are real time, really helps with the regulatory lag. We do have filings to do. But, the ones that we have in here listed on this page 4 CapEx will qualify for rider recovery. So, there will be very little lag here by the time we have initial spending to revenue recognition. There is then cash that comes later. We have to do what's called the factor filing to get the cash on that. So, when you get the earnings, right away, the cash will come a little bit later.

Just to tie that into the 11% rate base CAGR versus the 5% to 7% EPS CAGR. Is the lag there or the difference primarily the financing? Or is there some other variables there that create that delta?

Yes, we don't look at the 11% CAGR as synonymous with 5% to 7% growth. We believe that the CAGR here-- rate base growth certainly leads to growth, but it will enable our 5% to 7% growth.