Allfunds Group plc (ALLFG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Allfunds Third Quarter 2025 Trading Update Conference Call. Joining us in today's conference call are Allfunds CEO, Annabel Spring; the CFO, Alvaro Perera; and the Head of Investor Relations, Carlos Berastain. Ms. Spring will make a brief introduction. [Operator Instructions]. This conference call is being recorded, and an audio replay will be available at allfunds.com during the day. So without further delay, I will hand over to our CEO, Annabel Spring.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we present Allfunds Group's trading update for the third quarter of 2025. I will review the key financial metrics and business performance for the quarter before, obviously, we open it up for questions. We have maintained a strong focus on onboarding during the third quarter, welcoming 24 new distributors and 24 new asset managers. Of the asset managers, 46% were traditional fund managers and 54% were alternative asset managers. We believe this performance underscores both the appeal of the business model and its continuing evolution as the wealth management market itself evolves. Looking to activity levels and volume performance. All funds total assets under administration continue to show strong momentum, growing -- sorry, growing 17.9% year-on-year and 12.1% since year-end 2024. AuA reached the EUR 1.7 trillion mark. Our platform performance AuA increased by 18% year-on-year to close to EUR 1.2 trillion, growing at 10.1% since year-end 2024. Looking more closely at this quarter's performance, we've achieved a significant milestone with net flows reaching EUR 31.7 billion, matching the highest ever net flow figure in the third quarter, which was actually back in 2021. Over the first 9 months of the year, net flows totaled EUR 85.8 billion, a 76% rise compared with EUR 48.8 billion during the same period last year. This represents a 10.6% increase over the beginning of period on an annualized basis. To be clear, we are on track to deliver the EUR 100 billion to EUR 120 billion net flow target for full year 2025. Breaking down on these strong quarterly net flow figures, we continue to see healthy activity from our existing clients, contributing EUR 17.4 billion in the third quarter. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of positive flows, reinforced by the sustained upward trend seen since late 2023. From a geographic perspective, Asia stands out as the fastest-growing region, further diversifying our global presence. In terms of asset mix, fixed income funds continue to be the strongest contributors, in line with trends we've seen over the past few quarters. On migrations, we've added EUR 14.2 billion in the third quarter, showing an improvement over the first 2 quarters. Market performance has been very strong, along with the market indices through the period, contributing EUR 33.7 billion. Also supported by a favorable market environment, the dealing and execution portfolio increased by EUR 18 billion during the quarter, reaching close to EUR 494 billion in AuA. Now before moving on to the income statement and revenues, I wanted to briefly mention our progress on Allfunds' alternative solutions and ETP. This third quarter has been really strong in alts, and our business continues to build momentum. As of September, we have a total of 206 alternative asset managers in our platform and total AuA in alternative is now over EUR 30 billion, which is an 86% year-on-year increase and a 58% increase since year-end. Within that, distribution volumes have risen EUR 16.5 billion in AuA now, and that is 116% growth versus the same period last year. Our positioning as a leading platform for alternatives outside the U.S. continues to attract top-tier managers and distributors alike. Interestingly, though, for our franchise, we're seeing rising interest in private market funds, not only with existing clients opening and then expanding allocations, but also and importantly, new distributors joining Allfunds with alternatives as their entry point, a clear sign of strategic traction in what are very complex products to manage for distributors. On the ETP platform, which remains another key initiative, platform testing is now in progress. We've concluded with the live multicounterparty testing of the RFQ functionality in which several leading ETP liquidity providers have been involved, and we're currently pilot testing with real trades. With that, returning to the financials. Revenues were EUR 156.1 million, a 5.1% increase year-on-year. Excluding NTI, total revenue showed a strong structural growth of 11.2% year-on-year. Again, this is on track to deliver our full year guidance of 3% to 4% growth in total revenue and around 10% growth, excluding NTI. Our platform revenues for the third quarter were EUR 139.1 million, a 5.5% increase compared with the same period last year. Platform margin declined to 3.3 basis points in the third quarter and to 2.9 basis points, excluding NTI, reflecting some seasonality and the margin compression we had been anticipating. Commission revenues were EUR 96.2 million in the quarter, a 12.3% year-on-year growth. mainly supported by solid AuA acting as an important counterbalance to the margin compression. On a cumulative basis, compression revenue for the first -- revenue for the first 9 months of 2025 increased 14.6%, reaching EUR 278.2 million. Our transaction revenue reflects improved customer activity and engagement in Italy, driving an increase of 10.7% year-on-year to EUR 25.6 million in third quarter 2025. Net treasury income, as we discussed previously, had a year-on-year decline of 25.1%, obviously, due to the lower interest rate environment. Subscription revenue increased by 5.9% on a year-on-year basis to EUR 17 million. As I mentioned in the half year results, some of our subscription services such as Connect continued to perform very strongly. While certain other areas remain influenced by longer sales cycles and products that are currently less in demand, such as ESG. But let me finish by announcing our upcoming Investor Day, which will be in London on Wednesday, the 11th of March 2026. As a team, we're all really looking forward to it, and we're working hard to be absolutely ready. It will be a great opportunity to share and present the company's strategy and outlook for the coming years. And we'll be sharing further details around logistics today or tomorrow. Once again, thank you very much.

Thank you, Annabel. We will now open the floor to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question from Tom Mills from Jefferies.

Clearly, a strong quarter from a net flow perspective. Could I firstly clarify that you said you expect to be at the top end of the EUR 100 billion to EUR 120 billion net flow range for FY '25? Or were you just confirming your comfort with the range overall? And then could you also speak with respect to the other guidance that you provided at 1H? Are you still happy with all of that? And then the second question is, it sounds like the strategic review you're undertaking is ongoing, and I'm sure we'll get the full picture on that on the 11th of March, which we look forward to. Is there any incremental sense of direction you can give us, particularly on the perimeter of the subscription business at this stage? Or it's a little too early?

I might ask Alvaro to take the projections question and bring it back to me for the strategic review.

Sure. Happy to. Tom, so on the net flow range, the EUR 100 million to EUR 120 million, our view is that in absence of any market dislocation that could affect flows or any delays in migrations, we are likely on track to reach the upper end of the guidance range. With regards to the rest of the topics we typically guide to, no changes to the guidance we provided back in July.

And with respect to the strategic review, specifically with respect to value-added services, we're making really good progress on the portfolio optimization, really supported by a series of interesting strategic partnerships, but we will share those details in our full year results as well as a fuller discussion in our Capital Markets Day.

Our next question is from Gianna Holstein from Bank of America.

It's Christiane Holstein. My first question, back on the guidance, you seem to be tracking above guidance for both net flows and revenue. I was just wondering what's stopping you from raising guidance at this stage. Then my second question is on alternatives. So this is clearly a very exciting area and higher margin, although it is still a very small part of overall AuA. I suspect this will be an area of focus at the CMD, but I was just wondering if you can give us any indication at the moment of how you think you're scaling this business and are you considering inorganic growth at all?

I think suffice to say, the fact that I've highlighted in this earnings call and talked not only about the results, but also the strategic importance for the distribution franchise would suggest that you are absolutely correct, and we will cover that in more detail in the Capital Markets Day. But with respect to the guidance again, Alvaro.

Christiane, so we're very pleased with the net flow performance we've been seeing. And as I said, I answered earlier to Tom, we're seeing it not only within the range that we provided back in July, but towards the upper end. Having said so, we might be above the platform service AuA guidance figure absent any changes or market dislocations, as I said. But from a revenue perspective and rest of items in the P&L, we would like to reiterate that we are on track to deliver within the guidance that we provided back in July.

Our next question is from Ian White from Autonomous Research.

Just on NTI, can you help me a little bit with the moving parts in the quarter? I'm wondering if you might be able to call out the average cash balance, for example, that was elevated at 1H. Just wondering if that continued into 3Q and if that was basically a driver of the strong print we saw there. And in terms of the migrations, it looks like you're tracking nicely into at least the middle of the guidance for this year. Can you just explain to us, are you seeing sort of faster realization of the existing pipeline there? Or is it the case that you're still seeing growth in the pipeline itself? Maybe you could share some numbers around that, please, if possible.

So Ian, let me start with the NTI question. So in Q3, as you saw, we reported EUR 17.3 million revenues, bringing the year-to-date total to EUR 57 roughly million. When we look ahead, we anticipate higher transactional activity in Q4. As you know, Q3 is typically weaker given the seasonality. Although this year, we have seen, on average, a stronger Q3 when it comes to transaction activity than in previous years, which has contributed positively to NTI revenues. We've also seen a certain increase in average cash balances, thanks to the increased transactional activity. And although we have not disclosed the quarterly cash balances, I can confirm that on average, we're seeing an increase on a like-for-like basis. We've also seen some portfolio rebalancing taking place over the course of Q3, in particular in July and September that have contributed to higher cash balances. All in all, we want to remain prudent with -- when it comes to full year guidance. But I have to admit we're more positive today than what we were in July when it comes to this revenue line for the full year 2025.

And then with respect to the question on the pipeline, I don't think that's details that we've provided before, but suffice to say, our pipeline remains strong.

Our next question is from Julian Dobrovolschi from ABN AMRO and ODDO BHF.

I have 2. The first one on the platform margins. So if you look at the AuA, this one was up 18% and in the mix of that alts grew 86%, so obviously quite strong, and you also flagged that. At the same time, if you look at the platform margins, this continue to come down, also excluding the NTI. Arguably you're saying that alts are coming at a much stronger fee rate than the rest of the book. So based on that, could you please indicate what's the uplift, if any, at this point in time to the overall platform margins from the alts book today or perhaps give us a bit of an indication by what order of magnitude alts book fee rate compares to the overall book fee rate? So that's the first question. And the other one is on the SaaS. I think Q4 technically is a stronger quarter for you because many of the clients, they kind of, let's say, finish the migration or let's say, the implementation of their SaaS products at the end of the year. So just wondering if you expect some growth to accelerate in the subscriptions in Q4 over Q3.

Julian, let me take the first one. So on platform margin, the overall quarter-on-quarter decline in platform margin was primarily driven by the seasonality of transaction revenues and to a lesser extent, by the net treasury income. However, when we focus specifically on what we call the pure commission margin over platform service AuA, so leaving the dealing and execution aside, the margin has remained stable quarter-on-quarter. Obviously, compared to the same period last year, the margin has declined, and I think we've explained that addressed it over previous calls and the key drivers here include this ongoing shift from rebate into non-rebate AuA, the recent client migrations, particularly in regions such as U.K., which have entered the platform at a slightly lower average margin. And finally, a higher portion of fixed income and money market funds on our platform, which generally yield a lower margin compared to other asset classes. While alternatives do yield on average a higher margin. And I think we haven't disclosed the exact number, but let's say, it's higher than what you would typically see in a classical active equity fund. The size of the alts today is still too low to really make a difference, which is something we look forward to see changing in the coming years.

And then with respect to the subscription guidance, we just really like to reaffirm that subscription guidance and Q3 performance is consistent, I think, with our latest full year guidance. And given the strategic review, we think that's appropriate.

Our next question is from Gregory Simpson from BNP Paribas.

First question is the industry data and some of the listed asset managers in Europe have been reporting flows that show a picture of pretty sluggish active flows and strong passive flows. So I just wanted to check in on what you're seeing around active and passive on the platform around existing client flows. And then second question, just back on alternatives. Can you just remind us of the differences between the total AuA, the distribution AuA and then also the private partners AuA, which I think you haven't talked about this quarter was about EUR 4 billion in June.

Greg, so industry figures, it's tricky because it depends on if you're looking at an aggregated basis or on a country-by-country basis. And overall, I do think what you're seeing is probably reflected as well in the Allfunds numbers. When you look at our flows for the quarter, for the first 9 months, as Annabel described, they were very strong, but predominantly in the fixed income space, not so much in equities. On passives, we have not seen a meaningful increase on our platform. But you also heard Annabel, we're still in piloting phase with our ETF platform. So very early to really comment on that. With regards to your second question, I think you wondered what the distribution between the different buckets within the alts business -- yes, distribution versus execution...

Distribution versus private partners, which would...

I see. So I think -- so on Allfunds Private Partners, we are roughly at EUR 5.86 billion AuA out of the total EUR 30 billion number. Out of those EUR 30 billion, roughly EUR 14 billion, EUR 15 billion are pure execution. Greg, any follow ups.

No, what is the core thing you focus on, but it sounds like the distribution within that is the key one.

Yes, distribution and within distribution, obviously, the Allfunds private partners, that's the segment that is delivering the highest growth.

Our next question comes from Joao Safara Silva from Banco Santander.

It's Joao Safara from Banco Santander. Just one question from my side. So we've heard yesterday the announcement of UniCredit is pulling client money from Amundi. And I wanted to understand what could be the potential impact, if any, on Allfunds.

That seems like a situation that is evolving in a few years ahead. It's something that we'll watch carefully to understand.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from David McCann from Deutsche Bank.

Well done on a good quarter. So the first question has been partly answered. I just wanted a slightly different take on that around the flows in the period. So if you look at the flows from existing clients, were there any sort of notable one-offs about that in nature? Because obviously, Q3 is normally a seasonally quieter quarter as has been mentioned as well. So I guess, should we be extrapolating the momentum on a seasonally adjusted basis going into Q4? That's really the first question. And then secondly, on the ETP progress you've reported in going testing. When should we expect this to move from testing to full go-live?

First great question. There really wasn't anything particularly idiosyncratic about the quarter with respect to those flows. So just kind of an interesting market that we're all in. With respect to the second question, the reason you test is to make sure that it all works. But at this stage, obviously, we're looking forward to first quarter.

Our next question comes from [ William Burgers ] from [ Nuvest Capital ].

I got one question on the share buyback program. What is your strategy -- by ending this program, you completed the first tranche on the 17th of September. But at this stage, there are no share buyback activity, whilst your share price today at EUR 6.40 is substantially below the average share price targets of your 15 analysts on your website, which tells us a 25% discount roughly. So can you comment on your strategy to recommend and continue with your share buyback efforts?

William, we did indeed announce our intention to buy up to EUR 250 million over 2 years. I think we announced this back in March when we presented our full year results. And we have completed the first tranche, the first EUR 80 million tranche, I would say, earlier than expected. So we finished in September, while the initial plan was to complete it by the end of December. The second tranche and subsequent tranches will be launched according to our original timing. And we will, of course, communicate further details ahead of the launch. So...

There are no questions waiting at this time. So I'll pass the conference back over to Carlos Berastain for any further remarks.

Thank you, Sarah. Well, thanks very much, everyone, for dialing in. The Investor Relations team will remain at your entire disposal should there be any follow-up questions. Thank you very much, and goodbye.

That concludes Allfunds third quarter 2025 trading update conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.