Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kathleen, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Allied Gold Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And now I would like to turn the call over to Peter Marrone, CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much, operator, and thank you to all who are participating on this call. As some of our management is remote and for efficiency and also for the cadence of this call, I will present our formal presentation, but management is available on the call to address any questions. We're happy to be back with these conference calls. And given that we have had a hiatus on these calls, we thought it would be helpful to provide a recap of who we are and what we are and where we are going as part of our quarterly results. We are in Mali, we're in Cote d'Ivoire, and we are in Ethiopia. I begin with a discussion about the jurisdictions in which we operate as there hasn't been much said about these jurisdictions. But again, we hope to give you comfort that these are jurisdictions that are high quality for mining. Mali is prolific, certainly for precious metals mining. We can't think of a jurisdiction in which within several hundred kilometers, there will be a handful of mines that produce between a couple of hundred thousand ounces of production and as much as 0.5 million ounces of production, and it is very supportive of mining, and it has infrastructure for the support of mining. Cote d'Ivoire is new to the mining circle. However, it is one that has advanced very quickly with significant opportunities. And certainly, our Cote d'Ivoire in complex with Bonikro and Agbaou add to the successes in the country relating to mining. And Ethiopia is very new to mining, certainly precious metals mining. We are the first mechanized mine of scale that will be in production in the country, but it is on the bottom end of the Arabian Nubian Shield. Much has been said about the Arabian Nubian Shield and its potential. And here we are with millions of ounces already in inventory and literally on the cusp of the start-up of operations. I begin with the discussion about jurisdictions, mostly as an admonition to the laziness and overpenalization of these jurisdictions, particularly for companies that have Tier 1 assets as we do. But I also want to make sure that it is clear that this is also a recommendation of the value proposition for discerning investors that are comfortable that we, along with many other companies in these jurisdictions, can manage the geopolitical concerns, manage our operations effectively. And in the context of operations, here we are with Sadiola, a Tier 1 generational mine that for 2 decades has been in production, producing more than 8 million ounces in steady state without any interruption. We have a production platform that carries more than 10 million ounces in resources. It's a large mineral inventory with a production platform presently of approximately 200,000 ounces with a plan to take that to closer to 350,000 ounces over the next several years on a sequential basis. Cote d'Ivoire's 2 mines, roughly 17, 18 kilometers apart that we treat as a complex. We are targeting a mine life of 200,000 ounces per year for at least a 10-year period. And in the case of Ethiopia, our next mine, the Kurmuk mine, we expect to produce at least 250,000 ounces per year, and we expect that production to begin this quarter. So let me put a fine point to it. When we say this quarter, we're in commissioning in the month of August. We expect to be in production in the month of September. What I think is the true value proposition here is not just the particular assets, but the fact that we are unique in that we are a mid-tier gold producer, but we are underpinned by high-quality assets and in particular, on the opposite sides of the continent in Mali in the case of Sadiola and in Ethiopia in the case of Kurmuk by 2 Tier 1 generational mines. So a unique mid-tier gold producer with 2 Tier 1 mines in the portfolio. For the second quarter then, we had strong performance that carries the momentum into the second half of the year with higher production expected from operational improvements and, of course, the start-up of Kurmuk. We are on track to achieve annual guidance from our producing mines. The drivers for Sadiola will be higher feed grade and throughput increases. In the case of Bonikro, we're ahead in the sequencing in the first half of the year. So we expect to see the feed grade to a level that is higher in the second half of the year. And the throughput will vary quarter-to-quarter, but production will exceed our annual guidance with a fourth quarter production that exceeds the third quarter and the third quarter slightly better than Q1 and Q2. And Agbaou is now at a steady state of production, and we expect its production to be consistent with the first and second quarter for the second half of the year. And with that, then we expect to see cost improvements on what has already been seen as a cost improvement from Q1 to Q2 and from last year to this year. We are advancing our growth project, which is Kurmuk, that's advancing as planned. As I mentioned a moment ago, we are in commissioning, and we expect that to be in production before the end of this quarter. We have a strong financial position. And while we show in this presentation a pro forma cash balance of just under $0.5 billion after giving effect to the Zijin Gold strategic investment, we do end the quarter with more than $190 million in the treasury, more than sufficient to fund the business of this company. And we have impressive exploration potential with a budget that is $36 million. We just increased the budget for the second half of the year because of the exploration successes that we experienced in the first half of the year. In terms of our operations, just over 97,000 ounces for the second quarter, just over 193,000 ounces for the first half of the year and an all-in sustaining cost that is below $2,200 per ounce sold. In the case of Sadiola, production is expected to increase, as I mentioned, in the second half that is driven by increased feed grade and throughput. We're targeting to meet our annual guidance. Costs are expected to trend down, driven by higher production and lower expenditures. We continue to progress improvements to lower costs, and we're advancing several strategies, one of which will lead to the improvements to costs, which is a power solution that makes us less reliant on older diesel generators, a refresh of those generators, but also applying a solar power solution that will represent a significant portion of power at that operation. In the case of Bonikro in Cote d'Ivoire, our production exceeded our plan for the first half of the year due to higher grades and throughput. We took on a challenge in 2023 and 2024 through 2025 of waste removal and stripping to get to higher-grade material at Bonikro. And we said that by 2026, we would be in a position to be meeting our goals of getting that higher level of production, and we have demonstrated that we have done that. And the same is true for Agbaou, where production is expected to remain constant for the second half of the year, tracking to meet guidance, but at better costs than we've been experiencing in the first half of the year and last year. For the Cote d'Ivoire platform, we've increased mine life that is supported by a new area of mineralization that is now in development. We are advancing further exploration targets. In the case of Agbaou, we've increased proven and probable reserves by 60%. We have advanced our projects to the point whereas initially, we were saying that we expect to get production of 180,000 ounces per year for 10 years, we are now at a point where we can demonstrate that we can get that 10 years of production, but at 200,000 ounces per year. A little bit more on each of the operations. Sadiola, again, a generational asset with significant mine life and mineral endowment. We are in transition from a mine that was reliant on oxide ores to fresh ore. That first phase expansion now allows us to take more than 60%, as much as 70% of fresh ore through that plant. We are advancing a process of control upgrades, pre-leach thickener to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs. I mentioned the solar power strategy to further improve costs. And we have an organic expansion plan that takes us initially to that 200,000 ounces, as I mentioned, which is where we are now, and then to a production level that is expected to be closer to 250,000 to 275,000 ounces and ultimately, to goal of between 300,000 and 350,000 ounces. We are making new oxide discoveries. We are making new discoveries on a platform that's already 10 million ounces of resources, of which more than 7 million ounces is proven and probable reserves. So short term, 200,000 to 230,000 ounces of production, including this year, that will progressively increase within the next 1.5 years, and we average our production of in excess of 300,000 ounces to 350,000 ounces at an average with several years at closer to 400,000 ounces with all-in sustaining costs that are expected to decline significantly, and we estimate in the range of about $1,200 per ounce. So we are transitioning from oxide mine to fresh ore. We're putting automation and processes in place. We're upgrading this operation, this plant that is worthy of the Tier 1 inventory of ounces that we have. And we expect -- just to give a bit more clarity, the next step to be to go to 7 million ounces per year. We're working on the engineering for that is expected to continue through this year. We expect to be in construction on a permanent second stage crushing and larger ball mill that will proceed through 2027 and '28 with the start of production in 2029. So we expect then that by 2029 for several years to follow to be at least at 275,000 ounces per year before we undertake the next modular expansion, 8 million tons and then above that, that drives that production to its ultimate goal of above 200,000 ounces in the average of 350,000 ounces with several years above 400,000 ounces. In the case of Kurmuk, we're in commissioning. We continue that through this quarter. We expect to be in production, as I mentioned, in September. We are progressing as planned. Ore stockpiles are building, and we're ahead of operations. Our project costs are tracking to budget with over 90% of those costs committed as of the end of the second quarter, and we expect to be on budget and on time with this operation. We have made -- this makes meaningful improvements to cash flow. It is a prolific land package that will increase the number of ounces that is inventory. We presently look at 240,000 to 270,000 ounces of production with the average over the next several years, 2027 to 2030, that is closer to 300,000 ounces with all-in sustaining costs that are expected to be below $1,200 per ounce. And indeed, we expect that to be below $1,000 per ounce given the low power costs that we have at this operation. Moving to Cote d'Ivoire. Agbaou and Bonikro, we treat it as a complex. They're roughly 17, 18 kilometers apart. They offer synergies. We have begun a process of optimizations. As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, we are now targeting 200,000 ounces per year from this complex with a production profile of at least 10 years. Now one of the things that drives all of this then is this very significant optionality that we have in the exploration opportunities of the company. I hope I can say that the MD&A provides a fulsome description of what we have done with exploration and what we continue to do. We're happy to address any further questions in our Q&A. But what are our objectives? Well, in the case of Sadiola, we have a possible super pit. We're extending mine life. We're allowing for an increase in production. We're finding more oxide ounces. We're finding more fresh ore. In the case of Cote d'Ivoire, what started as a 2- to 3.5-year mine life has now extended in the case of Bonikro in excess of 10 years, and Agbaou is now already at approximately 6 years, going toward our goal of 200,000 ounces of production for at least a 10-year period. And in the case of Kurmuk, we start with 2 open pits, Dish and Ashashire, but we have many areas of exploration that will represent their own open pits. The objective is to extend mine life to provide operational flexibility with more mining areas and to take advantage of that plant capacity that we said in our earlier calls is in excess of what we need at present time. So in terms of second quarter financial performance, adjusted net earnings of $0.44, operating cash flow of $133 million, adjusted EBITDA of just under $167 million, all-in sustaining costs of just under $2,200 per ounce and cash in the treasury of $192 million and pro forma with the completion of the Zijin transaction, expected to be just shy of $0.5 billion. We are an established mid-tier producer. We have large-scale long-life assets, those generational assets to which I referred. We have a project pipeline that creates a notable, very significant production growth that contributes more handsomely to cash flow growth because all these new ounces are coming in at significantly lower costs. We take a disciplined approach to development and production growth with operational improvements that drive sustainable value creation. So just to conclude the presentation, we are on the cusp of that notable growth. We have strengthened the operational performance of the company. We have delivered and are delivering on our growth projects. We have improved the sustainability framework of the company. We are in a strong financial position. We have increased mine life at Cote d'Ivoire, which was the lowest mine life that we had, but of course, at the other operations as well. And we have further growth initiatives that will be supported by the exploration successes that we are achieving. We're trading at a very attractive valuation. We received an offer to sell the company in January for $44 per share. Today, many months later, we're more advanced and a better company. We have delivered on our plans that improved the company and increase that value. I'm comfortable saying to everyone on this call that we present a unique and strong value proposition. So in terms of upcoming milestones, the start-up of operations at Kurmuk, a further exploration update in the fourth quarter, further advancement and what we will say about the Sadiola next phase expansion by the first quarter of next year. We expect a site visit of our Kurmuk operation for sure in the first quarter of 2027. And we're completing the steps that are required at Sadiola, including the installation of the pre-leach thickener and the power solution, including solar that will improve that operation for the next phase of our modular expansion. And finally, the start-up of operations and ramp-up at Kurmuk. No, I did not make a mistake there. I duplicated the point for a reason where the start-up of operations at Kurmuk, which transforms this company in terms of production and in terms of cash flows. And with that, ladies and gentlemen, let me open the call to questions.

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Ralph Profiti of Stifel.

Peter, can I ask about some of your recent experience in Mali on the ability to repatriate capital in and out of the country? And how, if any, has there been influence on sort of in-country capital allocation decisions?

The in-country capital allocation decisions, Ralph, have been based on prudent business practices and prudent business decisions. It is not the result of restrictions on our ability to repatriate capital. None of that. Again, I'm glad you're asking the question because that goes to the fundamental theme of the quality of jurisdiction. There are no restrictions on repatriating capital. We have flexibility in how we mine. We have a large volume business. Mining is a large volume business. Some of you on the call have heard me say that when you're bringing to site more than 100 fuel tankers per month for our fuel requirements, that's a big volume business. And a big volume business like that cannot function if we were to accept what is said about the country on the headlines. The headlines are not correct. This is a functioning country with functioning businesses and one of those businesses is ours. To answer your specific question, we have no restriction in terms of repatriating of capital, but we have a business plan to invest back into the country -- to invest back into Sadiola to demonstrate that this is a Tier 1 mine.

Okay. And as a follow-up, Peter, when I look at the 2027, I guess, preliminary guidance for Kurmuk, it looks to be a very efficient flow sheet with that type of production target. And I'm just wondering what's been your team's experience and what can we expect on their feedback on how long it's going to take to substantially reach long-term target recoveries and things like operating costs, that initial 6 to 9 months of ramp-up, what does that look like in terms of quality and grade of that initial feed into the plant to get us to that target or somewhere near it?

Ralph, there's nothing unconventional in the design here. It is an open pit. We've opened up the ore. We have stockpiled at surface. We're meeting the grade expectations. We don't see any challenges on recoveries. And while the ramp-up is within that range of 4 to 6 months, we're also blessed with higher grade upfront. One of the reasons why we have not said what we expect the production level to be this year is a positive, not a negative. We expect to produce because of grade, 30,000 ounces per year. That's why in the first handful of years, we have a production platform that is at or close to 300,000 ounces per year, not the average of 240,000 ounces per year. But that also means that if from production in early September to mid-September to late September, we expect to be in that range of early to mid-September. That will make a difference in terms of what the production is for this year, but not to the value and not to the number of ounces of production next year and in the years to follow. So we are blessed with grade that is higher closer to surface, we have a ramp-up that I believe to be on the conservative side. And the result of grade, the result of what we see in recoveries, the result of that gradual ramp-up gives us a high confidence level that we'll meet the production goals that we expect -- that we indicated for next year and the years to follow.

Your next question comes from the line of Luke Bertozzi with CIBC.

Congrats on the quarter, really standout job in Cote d'Ivoire. I just had a question on Kurmuk. Can you provide a bit of an update on how the mining activities are going, in particular, how is it reconciling with the block model? And perhaps if you could give a little bit of details on the grade and quantity of your stockpile.

Luke, this is Gerardo. Yes, in terms of reconciliation, we're doing really well. We updated that model several months ago in anticipation of the start of operations. We did drilling and we're really pleased with the results in terms of grade control reconciliation. We're tracking well also on the volumes. We have reached the high-grade zones of both Dish and Ashashire, and we're quickly building the stockpile on high grade. We have 3 categories -- or main categories of grade and that we will be using, as Peter was describing for the ramp-up as we are increasing the throughput through the plant.

And then just a follow-up question there. Previously, you guys had identified the State Build transmission line as a key milestone for the start-up time line. Can you comment on the status of that grid power connection today?

Yes. We mentioned that not as a gating item or as a critical path item. We mentioned it because we have a 20-year power purchase agreement at $0.04 per kilowatt hour. For the benefit of those on the call, that's 1/2 of what one pays in Quebec. It is 1/4 of what one pays in Canada, all of which is hydroelectric power. So we were trying to highlight that this is one of the factors that allows us to be able to get production at the very low cost that we're anticipating. The power line will be up and running for us to be in production. But we want to make sure that it's clear. We need full power by November, not by September. And so we're perfectly on track to be with power by September. So whatever we need by November is not expected to be a gating item, not expected to be a critical path item because we expect to have power in September. We also have backup with power generators. And so the result of all of that is that we do expect to be in production in September. This is not a gating item for us. And we're looking forward to having you and others if your time permits, on our mine tour that we're planning sometime, as I mentioned, in the first quarter. I think this asset will show very well.

And your next question comes from the line of Carey MacRury of Canaccord.

Peter, just wondering if you can come back to Kurmuk and just if you can talk a little bit about sort of what the major items left are to complete there.

Carey, it's Gerardo again. Look, we are busy on C1 and advancing C2 and then getting, as you probably saw in the pictures and also wet commissioning some units. So there is some instrumentation on mostly terminals and cable to pull in certain areas. As we are moving through those, we're also advancing the commissioning. So big focus on that. All the ancillary items are finished or substantially finished. I'm talking about the TSF that was finished, water dam finished, main haul road is almost finished. It's usable now, and we have alternative access, as you know. Yes. So all key things are coming together. Crushing will be operational pretty soon. I think it's substantially complete, and we expect to start crushing rock in the next few days, few weeks.

And then just coming back to grade. I mean you mentioned the 3 categories of grade. Just wondering just for our benefit how you classify high grade at Kurmuk.