ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. (ALPEKA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Alpek and your participation in this webcast to review our second quarter results. I'm Alejandra Bustamante, IR Director. Here with me today are Jorge Young, our CEO; and Rodrigo Prieto, our CFO. Before we begin, please note today's discussion will include forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially. Alpek undertakes no obligation to update these statements. We express our financial results in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified. For your convenience, this webcast is being recorded and will be available in the Investor Center section of our website. Today's agenda is as follows: Jorge will begin with a quarterly overview. Next, Rodrigo will discuss our financial performance in greater detail. Then Jorge will delve into outlook for the remainder of the year and revised guidance figures. And finally, following management's remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. Jorge, I'll turn the call over to you.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Throughout the quarter, the Middle East conflict continued to impact global supply, leading to trade disruptions. This resulted in higher reference margins and ocean freight costs. While these industry conditions supported results, Alpek's performance was further enhanced by its operational readiness. Notably, our business units were able to resolve all raw material supply challenges while growing and diversifying our customer base in key markets. Alpek's year-to-date performance also validates the successful execution of our multiyear strategy to strengthen our competitiveness and financial position. Through a more optimized asset base and disciplined capital allocation, we were well positioned to deliver significant comparable EBITDA growth and cash flow generation. I would like to take a moment to recognize and thank our employees across Alpek for their dedication and commitment. Their hard work and focus on execution were instrumental to our results. On behalf of the leadership team, thank you for your continued contributions to our success. Moving forward, we're entering the second half of the year with a stronger and more resilient operating and financial position, allowing us to confidently navigate evolving macro, geopolitical and industry landscapes. Accordingly, we are raising our 2026 EBITDA guidance, which I will come back to discuss in more detail after the financial results segment. With that, I will now turn the call over to Rodrigo.

Hi, everyone. It's a pleasure to be with you today. Over the past quarter, I've had the opportunity to connect with many of you and I look forward to continuing those conversations and getting to meet more of you in the future. Let's take a closer look at our financial performance. Reference margins increased throughout the quarter across our portfolio, particularly Chinese integrated PET margins peaking in May at $336 per ton. Ocean freight rate to South America also increased sequentially throughout the quarter, reaching a high of $347 per ton in June. Alpek effectually translated this into solid results, maintaining a clear focus on cash generation and improving the balance sheet. We generated $127 million in operating free cash flow, supported by higher EBITDA and a strategic capital allocation. This includes a $211 million investment in net working capital from improved volume and a higher pricing environment. This performance reflects our ability to reliably convert earnings into cash, achieving a 31% conversion rate during the period. CapEx totaled $19 million, including a $10 million recovery from the Beaver Valley asset sale. We further strengthened our balance sheet by reducing net debt by $103 million and improved our leverage ratio to 2.2x, accelerating our deleveraging path ahead of schedule. Turning into earnings. Comparable EBITDA increased 169% year-over-year, reaching $336 million and reported EBITDA totaled $407 million, a 300% improvement compared to the same period last year. This included a $66 million inventory gain associated with higher raw material prices. Volume for the quarter also improved, reaching 1.8 million tons, increasing 6% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-over-year as solid operating performance and strong demand was supported by customer diversification. Both business segments delivered their strongest quarterly results since 2022. Polyester achieved comparable EBITDA of $235 million, while Plastics & Chemicals delivered comparable EBITDA of $95 million. While this performance represents an important milestone, we remain committed to preserving financial strength and sustaining leverage within our target range of 2 to 2.5x. I'll turn the call back to Jorge to discuss guidance and outlook for the remainder of the year.

Given the current geopolitical environment, market volatility is expected in the near term. For our updated guidance, we consider that underlying overcapacity continues in the petrochemicals and polymer industries. Accordingly, our revised figures assume that disruption subside throughout the second half and that reference margins and ocean freights declined when compared to the second quarter, but still remain elevated relative to our original guidance at the beginning of the year. We're raising our guidance to reflect the stronger first half performance and the following key assumptions for the remaining of the year. Average Chinese PET reference margins ranging from $170 to $200 per ton. As a reference, second quarter's average was $307. And as of today, July is averaging $215 per ton. Polypropylene reference margins at $0.17 per pound compared to an average of $0.20 per pound in the previous quarter and such level remains so far in July. Ocean freight rates to South America ranging from $120 to $170 per ton. The average for the second quarter was $225 and is currently at $268 per ton. Based on these assumptions, we are raising our comparable EBITDA to a range between $750 million and $800 million. Our operating free cash flow to a range between $300 million and $350 million. And we're also adjusting our CapEx to $150 million to advance our 3-year polypropylene project and smaller investments in PET sheet and thermoforming in our Middle East region. Our guidance reflects our current outlook and does not include any potential upside from the monetization of nonstrategic assets, which we expect to advance throughout the year, no impact of additional tariff measures in our key markets. Notwithstanding and considering the most recent geopolitical environment, margins and freight costs could remain elevated, especially if feedstock restrictions reemerge. In all scenarios, it is Alpek's priority to remain focused on operational excellence and to be attentive to our supply chains to anticipate and minimize risks. Moreover, we will preserve balance sheet strength and maintain disciplined capital allocation, working to keep the leverage ratio within our target range of 2 to 2.5x with the goal of remaining closer to the lower end. With this in mind, at the moment, we do not expect to resume dividend payments in 2026. This approach will ensure we maintain financial flexibility and position the company to navigate the cyclical nature of the petrochemical industry while creating long-term shareholder value. Notwithstanding, we will constantly evaluate these decisions as results are delivered and new information arise. Let me close by recapping our priorities for the remainder of 2026. Maintain operational efficiency across our global footprint to support customer demand as trade and supply dynamics continue to evolve, enhance portfolio quality by advancing higher value and specialty solutions to further diversify our businesses, develop emerging businesses, prioritizing high-return opportunities requiring minimal capital investments to support long-term growth and protect cash flow generation to optimize working capital and CapEx management in addition to advancing asset monetization initiatives to further enhance financial flexibility. Overall, we entered the second half of 2026 with stronger fundamentals, building on the strong momentum we have established. I am very confident in our team's ability to deliver solid operating performance by staying proactive and agile when responding to industry changes. Through this, we are aiming to position Alpek as the domestic supplier of choice by staying close to our customers and maintaining service excellence.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tasso with UBS.

Two on my side. One, probably for Jorge. We have seen PET spreads were more resilient when compared to other petrochemicals. Could you provide some additional color on how you're seeing the market and key risks for a stronger normalization in the second half of this year? Or maybe on the other side, opportunities that spreads will be persistent at these levels throughout not only this year, but also in 2027? And then Jorge, a second question following this first one, it's actually linked to the leverage ratio from the company. It already reached 2.2x net debt to EBITDA in the second Q. But we assume that Alpek will take a little bit longer to decide on the resumption of both dividends in case spreads reduce and leverage, of course, moves back higher. How is the capital allocation discussion within the company at this moment and following all of this discussion? Those are the 2 questions.

Thank you for the questions, Tasso. Yes, on PET margins, as you saw second quarter, Chinese PET margins reached close or around $300 per ton. They were very strong in March, April, May. There were some declines through June and July. And now they're approaching the higher end of the range we showed in our revised guidance to the second half. What we are yet to see is whether the most recent escalation in oil prices translates into a rebound of PET margins. That's yet to be seen. I think it will depend on whether the latest events translate into additional supply disruption. So that is yet to be seen. In our assumptions, as I explained in my prepared remarks, we still observe there is underlying overcapacity, and we're assuming the spreads will glide down. However, given the -- also observing some events, we expect spreads potentially to stay somewhat higher to the levels we saw last year, especially that were very low. And again, these are variables that we are not forecasting in great detail. But that is something that we think is very possible in the industry. Again, the peak was so far is second quarter of 2026. It's normal to expect some normalization to that level, but there are possibilities for the margins not to reach levels as low as last year. Again, we're yet to see how industry evolves. To the extent there are disruptions in supply that could be conducive to higher margins. In our regions, this volatility certainly supports the case of domestic suppliers. We are the largest domestic supplier in the Americas of PET resin. We're the largest domestic supplier, the only domestic supplier of polypropylene in Mexico, the largest domestic supplier of EPS throughout the Americas. So we expect that a volatile environment where risks are observed by customers in trade flows that supports our case. And it is our duty to confirm and earn the trust for the customers by delivering product on time with quality and competitively. So again, I see this as an opportunity for us to come stronger in the following periods. To your second question, as far as the capital allocation, I think -- I mean, you pretty much answered the question yourself. We need to monitor how our results are delivered. We need to factor, again, scenarios where the margins could come down, where the margins could stay elevated. And based on all that information, we will make that decision accordingly in due time. Right now, we think we will end the year without further dividend payments. But as I also explained in my prepared remarks, we still have 6 months more to go, and we will observe how we deliver results and new information. And more importantly, our outlook and forecast for next year. It's still early for us to have a forecast for next year. Again, just rehashing, we will plan for a range of scenarios, scenarios where we need to remain very competitive. Our focus is to operational excellence. So that we build and reinforce our position as a strong and the preferred domestic supplier for all customers. We don't take their business for granted, and we need to prove it early. Again, that's the view. So we will remain flexible on the decision. We will focus on what we can control. And if we deliver the results and if the perspective is reasonable, that's when those are the conditions to discuss the dividend resumption. And right now, we need to see these results to materialize for longer and that is where we are. This is a decision we will review together with our Board of Directors in due time.

Our next question comes from Leo Marcondes with Bank of America.

I have 2 from my end here. So the first one is if you guys could provide a bit more color on how the increase in U.S. tariffs and/or the news flows on the U.S. MCA could impact Alpek? And my second question is regarding the supply capacity, right? I mean with the resumption of the war, how have you guys been seeing the impacts on supply capacity? And how are you seeing the inventory levels for PET and PP right now?

Yes, Leo, thanks for the questions. The first part of your question was about tariffs. There are several things going on in the various countries. But I will focus on the one you mentioned, in the United States, there are ongoing investigations on tariffs on multiple products. I think we're yet to see the results of those investigations. Some partial results have been trickling down already on the investigation relating on fair labor. There is no conclusion yet on that one. But that one will probably maintain the current status quo that we have seen for the last several months where there is an underlying tariff in the United States of about 10% across many countries. Again, but we are within days of knowing the final outcome. There is another investigation relating excessive industrial capacity which the results are going to be out probably in the next couple of months. We're yet to see that. At the end, these investigations look to have fair trade conditions for producers of many products in the United States. In the United States, there is still strong competition in the market from local competitors. So it's early to forecast exactly how we see the impact. I think we are waiting for the outcome. And again, we are expecting that these tariffs address some of the distortions in the markets and bring a fair level pricing for producers of PET and many other industries. And again, it's all focused to remain very competitive and focus on our operational excellence to shine in markets -- in all kinds of markets. So again, Atari, we're still waiting for the outcome on tariffs in the U.S. And as far as USMCA, the USMCA for now, it was not renewed in July but everybody was expecting that. I think we expect there will be 1-year period revisions. In the chemical industry, there is a strong trade surplus that the United States has with Mexico because all the feedstocks that are used in Mexico. We don't think it's a critical sector from that regard. Most of the petrochemicals in Mexico are produced with U.S. feedstocks that are fully compliant with the USMCA requirements and will be fully compliant with the rules of origins. So we expect continuity from USMCA. But again, it's a process that all of us will be observing and we remain close to government officials on both sides to make sure we understand how it's evolving and that points of view regarding specific topics in our industry are -- that the facts are accurate. The second point, the resumption of war, it's really hard to say what are the inventory levels. When the war broke down in early March, there was an increase in prices and in spreads throughout March. I think the -- in several industries, several petrochemical and polymers, there was probably an overreaction in March, April on purchases, expanded margins and volumes significantly. Now there is another genuine disruption taking place, but we're yet to see the margins and the volumes to rebound. We're beginning to see some signs. It's very possible to see a rebound, but it's not observed yet. And it's probably a combination of markets in general, especially in some countries in Asia remaining cautious and learning from the lessons in April of accumulating excessive inventories. So those inventories might be now normalizing and there has to be another round of purchases that could definitely support margins if these disruptions extend. So again, we are very eager to see this to evolve. Certainly, this brings some potential upsides. But again, we're yet to see those rebounds and as of now. So that's the situation there. We are still working on observing the market.

Next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Our next question comes from Vanessa Quiroga with Eternal Capital. Sorry, Ben, are you there?

I'm sorry. I'm sorry. My question is -- I have 2 questions, and they're both on the cadence of the guidance update, and in particular, with PET. The first question is, can you tell us what the spot contract split was in Q2? And what are the underlying assumptions for the same question for Q3 and Q4? And my second question is on the contract volume, how much was repriced during the quarter? How much is still yet to be repriced? And is there a risk, if everything were to go back to normal today that they can be repriced again?

Yes, Ben, thanks for the questions. Those are very good questions. In the second quarter, we significantly increased our or sales in the spot market. We have -- as we mentioned, we felt we have good operational readiness to begin the second quarter. Our system of plants in general have been running well. Our inventories were on target. So that was key for us to capture opportunities on customers or supply got disrupted. So our percentage of spot sales definitely increased in the second quarter, and that was a huge contributor to our additional profitability. We are working very hard to make some of those relationships more contract type and more sustained as we work not only through the balance of the year, but also looking forward. And for us to continue to operate well and deliver good products on time and competitively to these customers definitely enhances that opportunity. On the contract side, there were also some increases in volumes and to an important extent there was some repricing. And again, that repricing was mostly designed to offset as much as possible additional costs that we had to incur to secure our feedstocks in the second quarter. Our feedstocks were also disrupted. We had feedstocks coming from the Middle East that got disrupted. We had to go to alternative markets. And with volatility also in shipping costs for liquids, we incurred excessive costs. And that was the basis for us to -- and other inputs that increased not only feedstocks. And that was the basis for us to have very positive discussions with our contract customer base to offset those increases. We are very appreciative of our customers who were very supportive across the board with the vast, vast majority of them supporting the pass-through of the additional cost. And that was also very important for us to deliver and supply well in the second quarter. How those conditions will evolve in the second half, I think we're still having discussions. I think in -- there is some trend to ease some of those costs. Now we need to process the additional disruption in the Middle East. Right now, it's becoming very visible in oil. And as for the last few days, there is a new variable, which is the disruptions potentially on the Red Sea. And again, we need to see how those disruptions will create changes in how the -- especially the ocean freights or the availability of carriers for both feedstocks and finished products are happening in the marketplace. But summarizing, there was an increase in spot sales. We are working very hard to expect not to see those as spot sales, but more than anything as a stronger, larger and more diversified customer base. And there was also repricing on the contracts with tremendous support from our customers to offset the additional expenses incurred in securing our raw material, but we were able to secure 100% of our supply of raw materials with significant challenges, but we are in a very good spot. And right now, our supply chains are looking good.

Our next question comes from Vanessa Quiroga with Eternal Capital.

So just to clarify, my question was very similar to the previous one, just to clarify on the dynamics. So on the spot side, you were able to increase spot sales because of the increase in demand and difficulty to get imported product, I assume. And on the contracted side, clients, your customers were willing to accept a pass-through of the increase in feedstocks. Just confirm if my understanding is correct. And then how are you seeing the current conversations for upcoming contracts? And do you expect to convert some of those spot sales into contracts? Do you expect any change in the structure of the contracts given the ongoing geopolitical risks and sourcing -- feedstock sourcing risks?

Yes. Vanessa, I think pretty much yes to all your points that you listed. It was a good recap. Certainly, the spot sales not only represented additional volume, but also those came at very attractive margins, given the reference margins, ocean freight the supply demand dynamics. So those were important contributors. But also, we had increasing volumes in our contract customers and also support to pass through the additional cost. It is early to -- we're just beginning discussions for the next period, 2027. Relatively few things have been into contracts by now or that we have finished. The vast majority will happen in later this quarter and probably even more during the fourth quarter. Yes, I mean, we'll try that our agreements reflect provide some flexibility to deal with unexpected events. But again, I think we focus on reinforcing and building the trust with the customers that our value as domestic suppliers delivered throughout the year and make them feel that with all they have secure supply, competitive supply, reliable and of good quality and a broad offering of products. And we think that's going to be in the basis to have a good contract renewal season this year. But we are a few months from that. We just think the volatility and supply disruptions are conducive to those domestic suppliers that do their job well to earn continuous business with this customer base.