American Homes 4 Rent ($AMH)

All right. So good morning. My name is Haendel ST. Juste, REIT analyst with Mizuho Securities. I'm pleased to be here this morning with the management team from American Homes for rent, a pioneer of the single-family rental industry and one of the leading platforms in the space. This morning, we have with us CEO, Bryan Smith; CFO, Chris Lau; COO, Lincoln Palmer. I'm going to turn it over to Brian for some intro remarks, I'll then kick us off with a few questions and open up the floor to questions. So please don't be shy. With that, Bryan, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Haendel. I'll start with a few thoughts on the business and the regulatory environment before I hand it over to Chris for some comments on our most recent update. 2026 is off to a good start. -- demand for single-family rentals and AMH homes, in particular, has been strong. Our important spring leasing season can be characterized by consistent occupancy and rate gains against the backdrop of excellent expense management. Our entire platform from operations to asset management to development continues to deliver. The team's disciplined operating approach and strong local market execution have positioned us well for the year and gives us a lot of confidence as we move through the balance of 2026. On the regulatory front, -- the legislative process continues to move forward as the House and the Senate are negotiating the final changes to the final housing build that we hope come out shortly. We continue to be highly engaged there, and we feel good about where things currently stand, particularly following the House's decision to remove the Senate's 7-year disposition requirement from original language. But importantly, American Homes is in a strong position regardless of the legislative outcome. We have the platform, the scale and capabilities to continue to create value through our in-house development program and best-in-class operations. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris.

So we just put out an update deck back part of last week, punchline is that spring has been shaping up nicely, just like we were talking about in the first quarter earnings call and as we were hoping for. Notably, we've seen a nice continued build in occupancy. We built another 60 basis points of occupancy from 95.6% in April, up to 96.2% in May, just like we were talking about on the earnings call against that strengthening occupancy, we are able to push a touch more on new leases, which grew from plus 1.2% in April, up to 1.5 in May. And then we held steady on renewals, just like we were talking about on the call, 3.0% in April into May at 3.1%. A couple of other quick updates on the expense side of things, nothing terribly new to update folks on. Just as a reminder, it's kind of early in the property tax information kind of calendar at this point. We'll have better information over the next kind of month or 2. The teams continue to remain hyper focused on controlling the controllables with respect to the remainder of expenses which they've been doing a great job on so far this year. Capital plan wise, things are going according to plan. We continue to execute on this year's moderated development program. We continue to see good activity as we continue to lean into dispositions. And we continue to be thoughtful around share repurchases quarter-to-date in the second quarter. We've now repurchased about $123 million of stock so far. I'm sure we'll get into plenty of other topics. But take away from a business perspective, things are feeling good. Spring has been shaping up nicely, and the teams are executing really, really well.

Fantastic. Bryan, maybe we could start with the regulatory. Certainly, it's front and center in a lot of investor minds, and I know you spent a lot of time in Washington this year. Curious what is the actual state of play right now. I think the bill is on the Senate floor. I don't know it's going to be weeks months, but I think that I heard there's a little bit of pushback from maybe Senator Warren about some of the provisions that are in this bill that weren't in the prior version, namely the removal of 7-year for-sale development. So curious what the latest read is on maybe timing? And then more broadly, as you think about the bill, how do you think the read-through for your ability to acquire homes trade assets and then, obviously, the point of contention, the 7-year for-sale provision.

Yes. So the current state Congress has been in recess to return this week, and they have a lot of other things, obviously, to address. But our understanding is that Senator soon and Speaker Johnson are in active negotiations. We were encouraged, as I said earlier, with the houses past Housing Act that effectively removed the 7-year disposition requirement from language. There are a couple of other changes as well. Importantly, too, it removed build to rent from consideration, which is very good for us with our internal development program. So I think that's a negotiation. It's difficult to know exactly what motivations are on those sides, but the fact that they're discussing it. And I think it's important to everybody wants to address housing affordability supply. And I think this bill has some good provisions that give us confidence that they'll at least be active dialogue and a decent chance of passing AMH is in a really good position if the House version passes with our build-to-rent platform and the fact that we have the operating platform to support to really run in concert with those deliveries. The effect on the overall industry, it's muted development so far this year, all of the attention that our space has gotten specifically kind of what the level of federal regulation is going to ultimately be. But we are well positioned if it passes and if it doesn't pass, to continue to deliver really high-quality assets into pretty robust demand environment. Specifically, if the House version passes, there'll be restrictions on MLS purchases, but we haven't been active in that space for a number of years. And again, our growth channels are going to be heavily focused on new development supply and then potentially consolidation from other players who might find the space less attractive without the growth that they ought to have.

That's a really interesting last point, certainly, as we digest some of the potential outcomes here, it certainly seems like the most net-net, clearly are positive for our position in this industry as some of the smaller players you alluded to, reassess their options and also I know there's a number of places you got into this business 5, 7, 10 years ago when the cost of debt was lower. So -- are you -- well, I was going to ask you receiving any phone calls, but curious what your read of the temperature from some of these smaller players are you getting inbounds? Anything you're willing to share on that front?

Yes. I think our team has been active in the space. with relationships with a lot of the owners and investors who have come in. Again, people are recognizing the importance of having that operating platform to support the -- and if you don't have that, it's difficult to be nimble to react to whatever regulatory changes occur, specific to the MLS, the restrictions have exceptions for those you can put in a path to homeownership program as an example. It's not particularly -- that channel is not attractive to us today, but because we have the operating platform, and we're nimble, if we decided to go that route, it would be a quick and easy change. But if you're relying on third-party managers and others to execute on the operating side it becomes really difficult. So that's been front and center. And then the fact that there just haven't been a lot of trades, a lot of community sales and portfolio sales this year, makes their exit options more limited, so there are a few good things that are playing, I think, into our favor should play into our favor, but we're watching it very closely. It just comes down to the economics relative to the cost of capital. at this point.

Can I add?

Yes.

Cost of capital is important. But just to underscore, these are really unique value creation opportunities. And if you want a perfect case study, you can look at the portfolio that we consolidated in the second half of 2024, which is really kind of a win-win in terms of value creation all the way around. It was an exit solution to the seller. It was an enhanced resident experience to the residents of all of those homes and unique value unlocking from an AMH perspective, as we brought those homes exactly, as Brian was mentioning, that were previously being managed by third-party property managers in place operating margins somewhere in the 50s, which is pretty representative of where smaller scale managers will operate. Over the first 12 months or so of bringing those properties onto our platform, bringing the level of performance up to AMH standards. -- those operating margins moved from in the 50s up into the 60s uniquely unlocking value as they come on or came on to the image platform. So of course, this seems to all be thought of in the right cost of capital environment, the math needs to math. But these are very unique win-win value creation type of opportunity.

Great color. Great color. Appreciate that. Maybe shifting a bit, if we could, to just the fundamental backdrop here the setup. Seen the updates encouraged by what we're hearing with the trends in your portfolio. So I guess as we think about how the sectors -- how the year is evolving, it sounds like it's more or less within your range of expectations. So I'm curious color you can provide us on kind of the demand pricing power where perhaps the portfolio is performing a bit stronger is supply having an impact in certain areas. So some color on just the fundamentals, the pricing, how the years evolving so far?

Sure. I'll just give you a few points on how we're thinking about the year. So far, Hopefully, you've all seen the investor update coming out of the beginning of leasing season and the normal season this year in February. We've had a consistent build in rate and occupancy into May. You can see the updates on the new leasing, which turned positive. And then renewals are running in the 3% range for April and May. We're encouraged by the strength of the season. It seems like the prospects this year are a little bit more urgent in the way that they're shopping we're converting a little bit better than we did last year, translating into some of that -- the positive momentum that you see. We should see some pickup in occupancy into June. I would think about this as kind of the peak of our season, May and June, typically is the time of year where we'd see new lease rate growth peak out. And then as we move into the back half of the year, it's not abnormal to see new leases accelerate slightly. So we should come off of the 3% area that we see today into the mid-3s as we move into the back half of the year. And we've set renewals in the -- into April -- or excuse me, August September. As far as the backdrop, Haendel, I think what we would say on the backdrop is probably a consistently improving supply picture. We've seen improvements in most of our markets and notably some nice decreases, which are giving us some indications of some green shoots in some places. Atlanta is an example of where we've seen some improvement over the last few months. This is the first time in several quarters where we've seen the rate of growth and that supply start to decrease. I think it's been well noted that the deliveries in many of the different product types and residential have slowed over the last year or so, I think we're starting to see some of the benefit of that in the standing supply. And as we continue to use this demand to consume some of that supply that's in the marketplace today. I think we'll see a nice opportunity in new lease rate growth and occupancy going forward. So overall, we're pleased with the way that the season is shaping up. We're encouraged by some positive indications on the backdrop overall and well prepared as we go into the second half of the year from an operations standpoint to take advantage of any deposit momentum that we have.

Relative to the guide and expectations, I think you said it exactly right. First 5 months of the year so far pretty similar ballpark to what we are expecting very much we were expecting to build in occupancy that Lincoln was just talking about, very much we are expecting new leases to start in modestly negative territory in the first quarter, inflecting positively into the second and then just like Lincoln said, moderation, the typical seasonal bell curve and new leases into the back part of the year. And then renewals in the first 5 months or so pretty similar to what we are expecting in the 3-ish area. To Lincoln's point, as we're looking into the third quarter at this point. Those are likely going to settle more mid-3s or so into the third quarter. If anyone unpack the components of the guide, you would see that the guide contemplates 30 on a full year basis. We'd like to see a little bit more data there in those renewals to for a little bit longer before we start talking about expectations on the full year, but the first 5 months or so pretty similar to what we were expecting.

That's great color. I wanted to maybe double-click on that a bit because we're sitting here today and the portfolio trends are great, but there's some of us who are a little maybe nervous given what we saw last year and certainly sounds like the foot traffic, the conversion are there. So curious as you sit here today, what -- help us understand what is driving some of that demand in a world of maybe it's higher mortgage rates, but there is some concern about a weak macro and some of the jobs. So as you sit here today, it's June, your level of comfort, confidence in the near-term outlook given what we saw last year? I mean any kind of early indicators or data that you can help clarify or highlight for us to maybe.

Sure. A couple of things that give us some confidence that the demand that we see for our product is sustainable. One is it's been relatively consistent for long period of time despite some of the ebbs and flows in the economy and some of the things you talked about in the job market, we have a very resilient industry and that people prioritize their housing in their budget. So there can be a lot of cut around that and people will still pay the rent. One of the things that really surprised us was how well our portfolio performed during the COVID period, which would arguably in the last decade is probably 1 of the most challenging household financial periods we've seen for a long time. The other thing that gives us some comfort is the idea that the residents that are coming into the portfolio today are well qualified, much like they have been in the past. We continue to see improvements in income. The growth in the income is running north of where new lease rate growth is. So people are -- their incomes are keeping pace with rent growth. We have redundant incomes. So 2 adults typically in the households, child, the pet, those tend to be -- that tends to be a sticky situation. People like to keep their kids in the schools and more importantly, if there's any disruption in one time of income or the other, we have a second income typically. And then as far as the rest of the year and how the year performs, our current residents also were in very great shape. Bad debt and collections continues to run very well, close to historical lows. And then the back half of the year, we've talked a little bit about our lease expiration management initiative. Some of you have heard us talk about that over the last several quarters. This is the first full year where we're executing on that as we move into the back half of the year. We have a much lower exploration profile than we have in the past, set that next to slightly improving supply profile. And the idea that we're controlling expenses well, I think it gives us some comfort going into the back half that we'll be able to to perform extremely well and a year where we planned so.

Great. Maybe shifting gears, capital allocation, maybe for you, Chris, thinking about the balance sheet, the range of opportunities in front of you today, you've been fairly active on stock buybacks. There is a unique opportunity to sell homes into the MLS market at fairly attractive cap rate. So curious on your appetite for further buybacks, what that could mean for dispositions? And then how does development funding state into all of this?

Yes. I would say the key word to our view is balanced. And as we think about all of these different pieces, we don't view any of them as either or all of these things, if done and kind of thoughtfully constructed the right way in terms of the capital plan. All of these things can live alongside one another and complement each other very nicely. And you can see that reflected in the plan that we came into this year with. For anyone that's unfamiliar coming into this year, we turned down the pace of our development program coming into 2026. That's one of the many benefits of controlling our development program from end to end. We have the ability to turn it up and turn it down. In this case, turn it down. So we reduce the overall level of volume and capital throughput. Within that reduced level of volume, we've allocated a larger portion of projects to our JV pipeline for this year, shrinking the balance sheet capital component of this year's development program such that it is match fundable with proceeds recycled capital from our disposition program. Where we see great opportunities to both optimize the existing portfolio, identifying and pruning underperforming properties and/or properties that represent higher and better use of capital elsewhere. Selling of those properties to end-user homebuyers via the MLS. On average, this year so far, we've been disposing of properties and a dispo cap rate range of about 4% or so, recycling that back into our development program. The downsizing or moderating of the development program to be matched fundable with disposition proceeds frees up incremental capital in this year's capital plan for other things like share repurchases. Where we have been active for the past 6 to 7 months at this point, regularly repurchasing shares fourth quarter -- first quarter and second quarter to date so far. In total, over the past 6 to 7 months, we've now repurchased about 3%, maybe even 3% change of total shares and units outstanding. Again, it's a very nice complement to the development program and the long-term value creation there. And then importantly, as we're balancing all of these things, it's very important that we maintain the development program and all of our development program infrastructure, right? The development program is a major differentiator value creation source for us and will be going forward. And so as we're thinking about navigating this type of capital, cost of capital environment, balancing all these different things, mission-critical that the development program maintains in motion in all of our high conviction development.

Bryan, maybe for you. As we chatting a little earlier, I've seen others in the industry include third-party management, mezz lending, curious on the incremental options that you're either considering or have looked at in the past and how perhaps those 2 options specifically could or maybe not fit into your playbook?

Sure. Just for those who might not know, we tested a third-party management initiative a few years back, focused on large institutional owners and new build-to-rent product. We work through it. We built the infrastructure, the platform is prepared to turn that on as needed. But we thought we had other bigger opportunities with our development and kind of internal initiatives. So we put that on pause. The way that I would look at third-party management, in particular, going forward, it's part of the suite of solutions that we can offer to other smaller owners, portfolio owners. And what I mean by that is we have the ability to -- as an example, if an owner owns 1,000 houses, 500 of which fit our buy box to be able to acquire those 500 and then manage the other 500 through the disposition process, if that's what the seller would want. So we have a lot of flexibility, and I think we'll use that tool to be an attractive way to get us into acquisition opportunity we might not otherwise have had. In terms of the immediate opportunities for a large-scale move into that just for management only purposes, it's probably not in the cards right now. But over time, we're going to be looking at those opportunities, maybe ways to license part of our operating platform that have nice margins where we have a real advantage. So over time, it's something that we'll consider, but nothing in the immediate future on a fee specific basis. In terms of lending, again, we feel like there's so much opportunity in refinements in the way that we're delivering houses and kind of our core right down the middle of the fairway business, that's where our focus is going to remain.

Great. I want to pause there and see if there are any questions from the audience? All right. In the front here.

Can you give a little bit of historical context on that like going back to pandemic GST like how our fat go on the standard.

Worst case, it's hard to imagine. Again, given some of the stuff that we've been through already and residents prioritizing their rent payments, we typically operated in the sub-1% range on our bad debt. So pre-COVID, you can think of that in terms of 70, 80 basis points and we're running 80, 90 right now. So very close to historical lows. And that's been relatively consistent. There was a fluctuation during COVID where we had higher bad debt just because people aren't required to pay rent legally for a period of time. And those of you who follow us over the last several years, I know that it took a little bit of time to resolve that as we went through that delinquency management process in different jurisdictions that tended to be very local. But again, with a healthy resident and the way that they're performing today, we have -- we don't have many concerns about the residents.

How [indiscernible].

Do you remember where we peaked, Chris?

This is total Memory Test.

Let's see if it matches my 150 basis points, something like that.

Yes, I'd say 150 to 2.

Anyone else are there?

Brian, seems to have a majority in the future where kind of steadfast against going down there -- can you talk through maybe what's changed your thinking that perhaps it has to do with kind of perhaps in the future with the new housing like the lack of opportunity of the MLS in at all.

Yes. We tested it. We looked at it. We're a very entrepreneurial group. We test the development before we figured out that we could scale it on the 3 p.m. side. We had, again, a focus on build to rent. We knew that we were lease-up and management and again, decided to kind of pivot off of it. We've always figured out ways to get credit to be able to monetize the significant investments we've made in our platform that extend beyond the normal operations, Chris mentioned 1 before, ability to have that big lift on portfolios that are external manage bringing them on balance sheet. So we're really looking at it as a tool to kind of enhance our balance sheet investment. But again, we're -- we recognize that with our scale, we have advantages -- on the leasing side, as an example, where we have hundreds of thousands of inbound inquiries regularly, and we're leasing thousands of homes a month. So are there ways to leverage interest and that demand elsewhere. So we're thinking about it, nothing in the immediate term, but there's a lot of power to the scale of the platform on the leasing side, on the services side, on the disposition side, things that could provide future opportunity.

And maybe continuing on that, I guess I'd be remiss if I didn't bring up the topic of AI. And so as you think about the power of the platform, what you've been able to accomplish the last 10-plus years, but the opportunity ahead as you assess your data capabilities overlaying AI. How do you think about that broadly and maybe any examples of how you're either beginning to implement new programs, maybe some expectations around either margin impact or anything you willing to share on that front?

Yes. We've we were prepared for a lot of these advancements and the investments that we made in our data platform a few years ago. We had to make sure that the foundation was set to take advantage of all these new good things, some of which are difficult to anticipate now. Our current state of AI investment, we're seeing it in a lot of the applications that we -- that run through our entire operating platform the most major initial forays initial investments are on the leasing front, where we're using it as a front-end tool to handle all the inbound inquiries and effectively get the prospects into the touring of home stage unassisted and then give them a very clear convenient option to continue to run through the entire leasing process digitally, if they choose. At the same time, we've got our sales teams at the ready to provide whatever level of assistance they need, the sales and leasing to bring that prospect home residue. So it started on the leasing front. I've talked about it in the past, it's going to form the foundation of our communication platform with our resident. Multichannel, dual-lay communication is a big change off of what have had traditionally, especially in rentals. So we see some benefits on that side. There are clear operating efficiencies that we're already starting to realize -- but what we're looking at it from a long-term view is what can we deliver because of the AI capabilities that's going to enhance the resident experience and make our houses that much more attractive, which would ultimately result in better renewal rates, longer stays and more efficiency. So we're trying to take the customer perspective and based on feedback that we're getting from them, delivering new solutions now are economical because of the advancements in AI. So that's what we're focused on right now. There's a lot of kind of nuts and bolts stuff that's happening under the hood. We've got improvements in the way that we're managing the of thousands of HOA documents and a lot of things from operating efficiency side. But I think the next phase is what can we do to dramatically improve that resident experience and do it efficiently and economically.

Great. 20 seconds. I don't know if that leaves time for one quick one in the front, in.

Just to follow up there anything on my predictive maintenance line at our.

The maintenance part is really the most important one, I think we're looking at solutions to empower our technicians to be experts across all aspects of home maintenance. So traditionally, you might have someone who's really got a plumbing or electric an electrician, but how do you put the knowledge and tools in anyone's hand to solve this? And ultimately, it could lead to self-performance from the residents if they have the ability quickly diagnose, order replacement parts and have a clear path to replacement it's easier than having to wait and make appointments for others to come visit. So those are the types of things that we're thinking about, nothing necessarily to announce now, but the pace of change is quick and there's a lot of opportunity out there.

Great. Well, that's our time. Thank you all for joining us, and thank you to the team from American Homes 4 rent.