Amplifon S.p.A. (AMP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 30, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Amplifon Q3 and 9 Months 2024 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Francesca Rambaudi, Investor Relations and Sustainability Senior Director of Amplifon. Please, go ahead, madam.
Francesca Rambaudi
executiveThank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Amplifon's conference call on third quarter and first 9 months of 2024. Before we start, a few logistic comments. Earlier today, we issued a press release related to our results, and this presentation is posted on our website in the Investors section. The call can be accessed also via webcast and dial-in details are on Amplifon's website as well as on our press release. I have to bring your attention to the disclaimer on Slide 2. Some of the statements made during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. With that, I am now pleased to turn the call over to Amplifon CEO, Enrico Vita.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you, Francesca. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 results conference call. As always, let's begin commenting on the quarter's results, starting with the top line and the market dynamics. In Europe, our market was still generally flattish, so it did not yet show the progressive normalization we have been expecting for some time now. Although our market is very resilient, certainly more resilient than many others, at this point, we cannot expect it to be totally immune to consumer confidence that has remained low for several months now in different markets, one of which is Germany, the third-largest market in the world and the second in Europe after France. In fact, we estimate that in Q3, the market demand was flattish to slightly negative in Germany and flattish to slightly positive in France. So here, we can see an improving trend quarter after quarter. Clearly, we need to see this trend continue also in Q4. As you know, we expect the French market to return to significant growth next year. We estimate that all other markets have contributed to a generally flattish market in Europe, with plus and minus. On the other hand, the U.S. market was still solid and broadly in line with our expectations, although it slowed down from the double-digit growth of the first quarter to around 5% in the second quarter and around 4% in Q3. As I said, this is in line with our expectations, also considering that the U.S. market grew double digits last year in Q3. Finally, we estimate that Australia and New Zealand altogether were slightly positive in Q3. Hence, we estimate that our reference market grew globally circa 2% in the last quarter. In this context, also in this quarter, we pursued strong and generally above-market revenue growth. Our sales were up 8% at constant exchange rates. And this is a substantial achievement if considering our geographical mix, which is, as you know, still more skewed towards Europe, and above all, given that we were measuring ourselves against a very, very high comparison base. In fact, last year, our organic growth in Q3 was at the record level of plus 9%. Commenting then on our performance by region, firstly, in terms of sales. In EMEA, our revenue performance was close to 4%, despite the flattish market demand I mentioned and the very high comparison base of last year. So also here, we can see an improving trend quarter after quarter. Then, I'm very satisfied with our growth in the Americas. In the U.S., we are proceeding at full speed, following our strategic priority to transform our network from franchise to direct retail. As you know, thanks to the latest acquisitions, we can count on a direct network of circa 400 stores today. That's 100 shops more since the beginning of the year. Finally, I'm also very happy with our performance in Asia Pacific, which continues to deliver strong and well-above-market organic growth. In addition to our organic growth, I wanted to highlight the continued acceleration in our M&A activity. In the past 9 months, we have invested EUR 184 million, which is EUR 100 million more than last year, which allowed us to achieve the significant milestone of 10,000 points of sales globally. Then, regarding the recurring EBITDA, we delivered around EUR 115 million with a margin of 20.3%, 40 bps below last year. As I said earlier, we have made a clear decision to continue to pursue growth as we see a unique opportunity to consolidate our leadership further in this market environment. So in Europe, for example, we invested more in marketing to overcome the lower consumer confidence. At the same time, in France, despite the still soft market, we are now strengthening our audiologist capacity to be ready for next year's expected market growth. In the Americas, we did not slow down at all. On the contrary, we accelerated the transformation of our Miracle-Ear network, which is, as you know, a key pillar of our growth strategy in the U.S. With this, I will hand it over to Gabriele to give you more details about our financials. Please, Gabriele.
Gabriele Galli
executiveThanks, Enrico, and good afternoon to everybody. Moving to Slide #4, we have a look at the group financial performance in Q3, which, as already commented by Enrico, posted a strong revenue growth at 8% at constant FX, with an above-market organic growth at circa 4% despite remarkable comparison base. In fact, in Q3 last year, we posted a record organic growth of 9% versus Q3 '22, a still flattish European market, and a U.S. market growing at a healthy plus 4%, though at a slower pace than H1. M&A contribution from bolt-on acquisitions, mainly in France, Germany, U.S., and China, was at a remarkable 4.1%, strongly accelerating since the beginning of the year. FX had a negative impact, accounting for 1.2%, due to depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the Argentine peso, though reducing versus Q2. EBITDA recurring came in at EUR 115 million, with a margin at 20.3% due to a lower operating leverage and higher marketing investment to overcome market softness in EMEA. The strengthening of audiologist capacity in France to prepare for 2025 expected market growth related to the anniversary of the RAC 0. The dilution effect due to the Miracle-Ear direct retail network accelerated growth in the U.S., where we acquired 100 stores since January '24. Looking at our financial performance in the 9 months, revenues were up at 8% at constant FX versus 9 months '23, with a strong and above-market organic growth at 4.3%, and a remarkable M&A contribution at 3.7%, with circa 370 points of sales acquired year-to-date. FX posted a negative contribution of 1.9%, decreasing throughout the period. EBITDA recurring amounted to EUR 412 million, up around 7% versus 9 months '23, with margin at 23.9%, up 10 basis points versus prior year, despite the already mentioned factors, the lower operating leverage and the higher marketing expense investment to overcome the market softness in EMEA, together with the strengthening of audiologist capacity in France to prepare for 2025 expected market growth, and the dilution effect due to the Miracle-Ear direct retail network accelerated growth in the U.S., where we acquired 100 stores. Moving to Chart 5, we have a look at EMEA performance. In the quarter, revenue growth at constant FX was around 4% versus Q3 '23, with the organic performance improving across the main countries, despite a still flattish market and the challenging comparison base. M&A contribution related to bolt-ons, mainly in France and Germany was 2.5%. EBITDA amounted to EUR 82.4 million, with margin at 23.9%, reflecting a lower operating leverage and higher investment marketing to overcome the softness of the market. In particular, in France, we have the country with more affect in -- EMEA operating leverage, given that on the one side, we were expecting a progressive normalization of the market demand, and on the other, we wanted to strengthen our audiologists capacity to adequately prepare for the 2025 expected strong market demand, in light of the RAC 0 anniversary. In the 9 months, revenue growth was 3.2%, with organic growth at 1.2%, and M&A contribution at 1.9%. EBITDA amounted to EUR 309 million, up 2.9% versus 9 months '23, with margin at 28%, 10 basis points lower than in '23 for the reasons just mentioned. Moving to Slide #6. We have a look at another strong performance of Americas. Revenue growth in the quarter was 15.3% at current FX, with strong and above-market organic growth across different countries, despite a remarkable comparison base, and with both Miracle-Ear and Amplifon Hearing Health Care posting a strong performance in the U.S. M&A contribution was over 9%, with acquisitions in Canada, Uruguay and, above all, in the U.S., where we completed, since the beginning of the year, 3 sizable acquisitions totaling around 100 shops, thus bringing the Miracle-Ear direct retail network to 400 points of sale. The FX impact was minus 6.3%, mainly due to the depreciation of the Argentine peso, easing versus Q1 as a result of the first significant devaluation of the currency in Q3 '23, to ARS 370 per euro from ARS 280 per euro at the end of Q2 2023. In addition, as you may remember, last year in December, the peso was sharply devaluated by the government to ARS 890 per euro from ARS 370 at the end of Q3. Therefore, in Q4, assuming no further significant devaluation by government before year-end, we expect that the ForEx effect will reverse, in Q4 accounted as a difference between full year and the first 9 months of '24. As a consequence, in Q4, reported sales will accelerate. FX effect will reverse to positive, with a negative impact on sales at constant FX, and consequently on organic growth. EBITDA amounted to EUR 29.3 million, up 9% versus Q3 '23, with margin at 23.2%, down 140 basis points due to the accelerated growth of Miracle-Ear direct retail business in the U.S. and the integration of the circa 100 points of sale acquired since January. In the 9 months, revenue were up 13.8%, driven by a strong organic growth, despite the remarkable comparison base. EBITDA amounted to EUR 91 million, up 8.4% versus 9 months '23, with the margin decreasing by 130 basis points for the reasons I just mentioned. Moving to Slide 7. We have a look at Asia Pac performance, where we posted a strong revenue growth, despite a remarkable comparison base. In the quarter, revenues were up around 7% at constant FX, driven by a solid and above-market organic growth, despite a very challenging comparison base, with Australia posting a strong organic performance. M&A contribution was 3.3%, mainly related to China growing double-digit. Today, in China, we reached over 500 points of sale. In the quarter, FX reversed to positive 1%. EBITDA reached EUR 25.8 million, increasing by 8.4% compared to '23, with margin at 26.6%, 10 basis points higher versus Q3 '23, also after the very strong growth of China, where we acquired around 100 stores from January '24. In 9 months, revenue were up almost 10% at constant FX and over 8% at current FX, driven by a strong 6% organic growth and 4% M&A contribution. EBITDA amounted to EUR 73 million, up 9.9% versus 9 months '23, with margin at 26.4%, posting an expansion of 40 basis points, even after the very strong growth of China. Moving to Slide #8, we appreciate the Q3 profit and loss. In the quarter, total revenue increased by 6.8% at current FX, and 8% at constant FX, to EUR 568 million. EBITDA recurring came in at EUR 115 million, up 4.8% versus Q3 '23, with margin at 20.3%, a 40 bps decrease compared to previous year. EBITDA reported was around EUR 114 million, up around EUR 6 million versus '23, after EUR 1 million one-off cost. D&A, including PPA, grew by EUR 11 million versus last year, in light of the significant M&A acceleration and the strong investment in network, IT infrastructure, and innovation, leading the recurring EBIT to EUR 39.5 million versus EUR 45.4 million last year. Net financial expenses amounted to EUR 16 million versus EUR 13 million in Q3 '23, primarily due to the higher net financial debt, including higher lease liabilities, following the strong M&A activities and related network expansion, coupled with the increase in market interest rates compared to previous year. Tax rate ended at 27%, in line with Q3 '23, leading recurring net profit at EUR 17.5 million. Moving to Slide #9. We see the 9-month profit and loss evolution. Total revenues increased by 6.1% at current FX and 8% at constant FX, to EUR 1.75 billion. Recurring EBITDA increased by 6.9% to EUR 412 million, with margin at 23.6%, up 10 basis points versus last year, thanks to the productivity measures, which more than offset the market softness in Europe and the fast growth of Miracle-Ear direct retail. D&A, including PPA, increased by around EUR 25 million, leading the recurring EBIT to around EUR 192 million, in line with last year. Net financial expenses accounted for EUR 43.6 million, in light of the previously mentioned reasons, leading profit before tax to around EUR 148 million. Tax rate ended at 27.5%, improving versus 9 months '23, and leading recurring net profit to EUR 107 million, slightly below the EUR 112 million last year. Net profit, as reported, was EUR 104 million, slightly above the EUR 103 million recorded last year. Moving to Slide #10. We appreciate the cash flow evolution. The operating cash flow after lease liabilities was in the period equal to EUR 150 million versus EUR 169 million strong level achieved in '23, after higher lease liabilities for the strong network expansion following the accelerated M&A activities, higher financial expenses, and higher seasonal absorption from working capital. Net CapEx were in line with the previous year at EUR 99 million, leading free cash flow to EUR 50.6 million. Net cashout for M&A was EUR 184 million, more than double of the EUR 83 million last year, following the significant acceleration of bolt-on M&A, with around 370 shops acquired in the first 9 months of '24, primarily in France, Germany, U.S., and China. NFP ended at around EUR 1.07 billion, posting a seasonal increase versus December '23, after strong investments for around EUR 370 million in CapEx, M&A, dividends, and share buyback. Moving to Slide 11. We have a look at the debt profile trend and key financial ratios. As mentioned, the net financial debt closed at around EUR 1.07 billion, with liquidity accounting for EUR 168 million, short-term debt accounting for EUR 510 million, and medium- and long-term debt accounting for around EUR 727 million. In October, we announced 2 new sustainability-linked credit facilities for a total amount of EUR 250 million. These credit lines, linked to specific targets of our sustainability plan, allow us to further optimize our financial structure, diversifying our sources of funding, and extending the average debt maturity. Following the IFRS 16 application, lease liabilities amounted to around EUR 510 million, leading the sum of net financial debt and lease liability to EUR 1.58 billion. Equity ended up at around EUR 1.12 billion. Looking at financial ratios, net debt over EBITDA ended at 1.78x, slightly increasing versus 1.50x at December last year, after the strong investment plan in CapEx, M&A, dividends, and share buyback. Net debt over equity ended at 0.96x. I will now hand over to Enrico for outlook and closing remarks.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you, Gabriele. So we are at the last chart of today's presentation, where you can find our key comments regarding the final part of this year. Firstly, we still expect the European market to gradually normalize, and above all, in 2025, return to solid growth, also thanks to the anniversary of the French reform and an easier comparison base. We also expect the U.S. market to continue to grow healthily, in line with our expectations of around 6% plus, 6%, 7% in 2024. Hence, we see now a global market growing at circa 3% this year. Notwithstanding this market development, which is below our initial expectations and historical levels, we confirm our goal to grow high-single digit at constant exchange rates, thanks to our continued ability to overperform the market and the contribution of bolt-on acquisitions above 3%. Regarding profitability, we now see the EBITDA margin broadly in line with 2023, which is a result of our investments I mentioned earlier, for example, in marketing to respond to the softness of the European market, in strengthening our audiologists capacity in France to get prepared to the next year anniversary of the RAC 0 reform, and the acceleration of the Miracle-Ear transformation in the U.S. In fact, we are convinced that these investments are crucial for the profitable growth of our company next year and in the medium term. On this note, we are excited to announce the launch of our new television commercial in Italy and Spain this week. The ad, designed to strengthen our brand positioning and create a lasting emotional impact on our audience, tells an authentic and engaging story that highlights our company's unique expertise and care and connects directly to consumer needs. With a creative concept and top-quality production, we believe this commercial will not only capture attention, but also expand our target audience, reinforcing our connection with those we serve and driving positive sales results. The campaign will be conveyed via multichannel and multi-content media plan, focused on TV and digital with significant investments. With this, we thank you for your attention, and we look forward to taking your questions. Francesca, over to you.
Francesca Rambaudi
executiveThanks, Enrico. I kindly ask operator to open today's Q&A session. We kindly ask you to limit your questions to maximum of 2 initially in order to give everybody the opportunity to ask questions. Now I turn the call over to Sabrina in order to open for the Q&A. Thanks.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Hassan Al-Wakeel of Barclays.
Hassan Al-Wakeel
analystI have 2, please. Firstly, on the reiterated top line guidance and the increased M&A contribution, combined they imply a lower organic growth for the year. Appreciate, the M&A effect was already above 3% at the Q2 stage. But should we read anything into this? Do you think mid-single-digit organic growth in Q4 is realistic? And do you expect an acceleration into 2025 outside of France? I'm thinking other EMEA and APAC in particular. Secondly, on margins. 2024 looks to be another year of margins not expanding. Appreciate, you've done a considerable amount of M&A. I'd love to know what you think the M&A dilution on the margin has been. And if you can talk to the confidence you have in margins expanding into next year, even in a scenario where growth doesn't accelerate.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you, Hassan, for the 2 questions. So with regards to our top line guidance, you are right in the sense that now we see an M&A contribution above 3%. We are at about 3.5%, 3.7% year to date. I would say that with regards to organic growth, we will see also this year us overperforming the market growth. And this is, in my opinion, the most important point. What I mean is that we have always said that, of course, we can't grow organically irrespective of what the market growth would be. And since this year, we expect the market to grow in the region of about 3%, definitely we see ourselves also this year to overperform the market in line with what has always been our overperformance of 1%, 2%, which is, in my opinion, a significant achievement, also considering the fact that, as you know very well, in our business, mix is more skewed towards Europe, which has been the continent, the region most affected by the lower market growth. So to be able, in my opinion, to continue to overperform the market despite of the fact that, of course, we have been penalized in a sense by the fact that the European market basically this year will grow by, what, 1%, something like that. I think it's a significant achievement. Of course, as I said, we can't think ourselves to be completely immune by the market growth reported in the different continents. Then, with the second part of your question about our confidence to continue to overperform the market and accelerate the market outside France, yes, of course, this is our goal also for next year. We still expect the European market to improve next year because the fundamentals are there, also excluding the contribution that will come from France, and also because the easier comparison base, because also this year, we will see a European market actually to grow less than expected. And therefore, for sure, I think there is some demand, which is building somewhere across the different markets. So yes, we should see next year, this is not a guidance, but definitely, we expect the European market next year to grow faster than this year. With regards to our ability to expand margins, I'm going to repeat myself. First of all, this year, unfortunately, we saw the European market to grow much less than expected. We took a conscious decision actually to continue to pursue growth, as we see a unique opportunity for ourselves to continue to strengthen our competitive position in the market. So we did not slow down, for example, our transformation in the U.S. market, not at all. Actually, we have accelerated that. Just for your reference, this year, we have acquired 100 shops more since January 2024, which is a significant amount of shops. We have also invested in -- we are investing in audiologist capacity in France because we are very conscious of the fact that we will need some more capacity next year given the expected market growth. I still remember in 2021, during the implementation of the RAC 0 reform, we could grow even more than we did, but we had constraints in terms of audiologist capacity. And this is something that we want to get prepared for next year. So we are definitely investing in order to get prepared to next year market growth, which we expect more favorable than this year and also for our future growth, not only in 2025 but also in the medium term.
Hassan Al-Wakeel
analystIf I can just follow up on M&A, given such a favorable backdrop and your desire to strengthen your competitive position. Should we expect a continuation of this high level of activity next year? China has also been a driver of this expansion. What are you seeing on the ground, given soft consumer sentiment? What's your midterm ambition in terms of M&A for China?
Enrico Vita
executiveWell, it's early to say if this positive market environment in terms of M&A will continue also next year. For sure, our appetite to continue to grow. Coupling organic growth with M&A is definitely there and will continue to be so also next year. Now, difficult to say if it will be above our historical level, which is the case of this year, or below, which was the case, for example, in 2021 or in 2022. With regard to China, I think that we are proceeding in the right direction. What I mean is that we did not go for large acquisitions. We thought that large acquisitions in China were too risky, also from a management point of view, because in order to manage efficiently a large network, so widespread across a large geography is something that we saw as risky. So we will continue with our policy, let's say, of piecemeal acquisitions in, let's say, the defined regions and cities where we think that it would be appropriate for us to grow market share.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Niccolo Storer of Kepler.
Niccolò Guido Storer
analystThe first one is on EMEA growth. Still, towards the end of September, you were talking about expectation for 1%, 2% growth for the year. Now you are saying 1%, but still in the 9 months, we were stuck at 0. So do you really have evidence that in Q4, we are going to get this implied acceleration? Or it's just some wishful thinking, and in reality, we are to remain on the flattish side? The second one is on the U.S., and in particular, if you can isolate which was the growth of the U.S. alone, so Americas less, all the Latin American markets, less hyperinflation accounting, et cetera. And related to that, I see that, clearly, you have had some margin dilution in the Americas. You blamed the M&A. Is it fair to say that without M&A, so keeping the mix direct franchising, stable margin would have grown over the 9 months or not? If you can elaborate a bit on that.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you, Niccolo, for your questions. So with regards to the first question, of course, we hope that we are not just doing some wishful thinking about the end of the year with regards to the market growth. Definitely, you may recall that in Q1, we saw a positive market development in Europe. Then, in Q2 a flattish market demand, then in Q3, again, a flattish market demand. So the assumption here is that, as I said also during the comments to my presentation, is that there are no structural reasons why the European market should not come back to growth. So we are not planning for anything significant above last year, also for Q4, in the European market. But we think that the market growth should, in a way, normalize in Q4, in Q1, and then overall, in 2025, also thanks to the contribution from France, because we should not forget that the main negative contribution to the flattish market demand in Europe was coming from France, which has been a negative also in Q1, Q2. Now in Q2 was flattish, now it's slightly positive. We need to see this trend to continue also in Q4, but definitely, in 2025, the French market should give a significant contribution to the growth of the total market, and definitely not to be anymore a drag negative, let's say, to give a negative contribution to the total growth of the European market. With regards to the second question, and therefore, our performance in the Americas, what I can tell you is that from one side, in the U.S., we continued to grow faster than the market. The reported numbers from HIA with regards to U.S. related to Q3 actually were in the region of plus 4%, 5%, and we have continued to outperform the market in the U.S., which is, again, in my opinion, a good confirmation of the fact that our strategy is delivering definitely good growth. And with regard to the last part of your question, and therefore, our profitability without M&A, yes, definitely, the main negative contribution to the profitability decrease in the Americas was absolutely coming from the transformation of the Miracle-Ear network from franchise to direct retail, and also, let's not forget, I like to underline the fact that this year, we have acquired more than 100 stores, and therefore, there is also some time required in order to integrate them, to boost their performance, and to increase their performance. Let's not forget that very often our franchisees are family-owned companies. So we need some time actually to bring all the acquisitions to the level that we want.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Julien Ouaddour of Bank of America.
Julien Ouaddour
analystSo the first one on EMEA market again. So France and Germany roughly neutralized them in Q3. So, let's say, flattish growth. You said the overall European market was also flattish, which means all the countries are under pressure as well. Could you maybe talk about, let's say, like different markets such as Spain, Italy, just to have a sense on like where we stand for these ones? And my second question is on, let's say, on technology. So one of the manufacturers make a lot of noise at the moment with like a new AI, deep neural network technology. Maybe could it be an opportunity for you to integrate this technology to your white-label brand, which ultimately, I guess, could drive the customers' interest, but also improve your mix given the higher selling price category? And the third one is just -- sorry, I have to ask it, but usually [ you would ] comment about the momentum in the first month of the quarter, not this time. So is it because you want to keep good surprise for the full year results in March? Or could you just comment about it?
Enrico Vita
executiveNo, thank you. Thank you for your questions, actually. So with regards to the first question, therefore, the EMEA market, first of all, you need to appreciate that the French and the German market together account for more than 60%, 65% of the total European market. So it is clear that if these 2 -- the numbers that we see and that we estimate for France, as I say, there is something above 0%. The market demand in France is something below 0%. So if you combine the 2, which, as I say, there's almost 60%, 65% of the total market in Europe, of course, I'm not including NHS, which is not in our reference market. Well, basically, it is impossible for the European market actually to be very positive or to be very negative. And in fact, as I said also during the presentation, we see actually a more scattered performance from other markets with some reporting good growth, some reporting less good growth with no clear pattern. With regards to the second question, and therefore, innovation. Yes, of course, we welcome innovations. We need innovations, of course, in order to, actually to, first of all, to improve our mix. On the other side, we need innovation in order to convince customers that maybe bought devices 4, 5 years ago to buy a new one because they can definitely see a better performance, new features, and so on and so forth. So we definitely welcome any manufacturer that is able to introduce to the market new products and new innovations. With regards to the last question about the momentum in the beginning of Q4, I would refrain to make any comment simply because we have seen in the first 9 months that the market showed some volatility. So I don't want to give maybe information that can be different next month, et cetera, et cetera. So I prefer actually now not to give you anything special unless we see, again, something special.
Julien Ouaddour
analystNo, I fully understand. If I can just quickly follow up on the second question. So would you say that you may be in discussion just to integrate this kind of technology in your product, but is it not the case yet?
Enrico Vita
executiveNo, no, of course, as you know, in general terms, we are all happy when manufacturers introduce innovations. And of course, we will adopt that as soon as available.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Shubhangi Gupta of HSBC.
Shubhangi Gupta
analystSo my question is on North America. What are your expectations for growth from the North American market, given that going into Q4, we would be having tough comps? And then again, with the launch of Apple's hearing aid tech in its AirPods. So what do you think is the impact on the hearing aids in general for you?
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you for your questions. So with regards to the expected market growth for the U.S., year-to-date, 9 months, the U.S. market, these are publicly available numbers, basically grew perfectly in line with our initial expectation of plus something in between plus 6% and 7%. And this is our forecast also for the full year. So we expect a similar trend more or less also for Q4. With regards to the second question, therefore, the Apple functionalities that have been added to their AirPods Pro 2, I do not expect any meaningful impact on our industry, on our business, simply because they are targeting a completely different consumer segment. So they are targeting more mild losses, which is not our core consumer segment. And in addition to that, you know that basically, we do not sell devices. We are providing our customers value-added services, which have a completely different proposition from OTC devices.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Giang Nguyen of Citi.
Giang Nguyen
analystMy question is around the French reform anniversary. Given that you have started work on adding capacity, are you more or less confident at this point in time around the market growth assumption for next year? I think at Q2, you pointed to more than 10% growth. And also, have you started lead generation activities ahead of this reform? And if you have, how is it looking like?
Enrico Vita
executiveAbsolutely. You're absolutely right. Well, yes, we are preparing for next year. As I said also during my presentation, actually, we are doing well because we are very mindful of the fact that in 2021, whilst from one side, we were very happy about the market growth, on the other side, we felt like we did not exploit in full the growth of the market because of the constraints that we had in terms of capacity. So this time, we wanted to prepare ourselves on this regard. So both in terms of capacity, but also in terms of preparing for lead generation, as you mentioned. With regards to the growth that we expect from the market next year, yes, our assumption is that the market should grow on a full year basis something above 10%. Now it's very difficult to say if it is 10% or if it is 15% or whatever. But definitely, we should see a market growth in the full year. Let me underline that because we expect actually the anniversary to kick in starting from Q2, May, June next year. So we expect a double-digit growth April, May, June next year. So from Q2, we expect, we should see a double-digit growth for the full year.
Giang Nguyen
analystAnd if I could just follow on this. Some manufacturers were quite shy away from assuming or estimating a market growth rate for next year, because they mentioned factors such as potential leakage of people who may not be wearing hearing aids and only bought them because they were free. Is there something that you have already included in your assumption for the market growth?
Enrico Vita
executiveAbsolutely, yes. Of course, behind our estimation, as well as I guess everyone's estimation, there are a number of different assumptions. We have tried to be balanced on our assumptions. And of course, I hope that we are right. But we'll see if we are right or not. But yes, of course, we have taken into consideration many different assumptions, including the one that you mentioned.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Domenico Ghilotti of Equita.
Domenico Ghilotti
analystTwo questions. The first is on the marketing investments. So if you can give us a sense of how much are you investing this year more than compared to last year. And maybe, in particular, you are mentioning Italy and Spain. So I'm trying to understand if the effort that you are doing now that you are on air can translate into sales already in Q4 or if we have to wait for, say, early next year for having the results flowing into the top line. And the second question is on China. You were mentioning the double-digit performance, but if I'm not wrong, it was including M&A. So I'm trying to understand if there how do you see the organic trend in the Chinese region?
Enrico Vita
executiveYes. Thank you for your question. So with regards to marketing, you may recall that our plan basically was to grow our marketing investments in line with sales. Now we are some points above that. And we are doing this from one side because we need to offset the lower consumer confidence that we see in some markets like, for example, Germany or France that I mentioned also earlier. On the other side, we are also, as you also rightly mentioned, we are also investing in order to launch new campaigns. And by the way, I invite all of you to click on the presentation to have a preview of our actually campaign that now is live in Italy and Spain. We expect, of course, these campaigns not to have an immediate impact. This is not the assumption. But of course, we expect to have some positive impact going forward in the next month. And we'll see that. We definitely will be able to report to you about the success of the campaign, which we are very excited at the year-end conference call.
Domenico Ghilotti
analystSorry, maybe just a follow-up. Could you roll out, clearly, if it is successful, you can plan to roll out also France and Germany, other markets, I presume?
Enrico Vita
executiveYes. But it will depend from our relative market position. What I mean is that we think that this is something that could work very well, of course, in the market where we are leaders, where our brand is already very well established, maybe in markets with less brand awareness or less brand equity, we might need something different. But in general terms, we want to see the platform, let me say, to work here in Italy and Spain before, of course, launching it and rolling out in other markets. With regard to China, so in terms of total growth, we continue to grow very fast, of course, in terms of organic growth. We have seen in Q3 a slowdown in comparison with Q2, but we are still happy about our trajectory of growth in China. And we expect, actually, to improve part of the short-term issues of the Chinese economy. Definitely, as you know, we see a clear trend in terms of longer-term trends like demographic penetration, supporting the market growth in the future. So China definitely is confirmed to be as a key driver of our growth in the medium and long term.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from David Adlington of J.P. Morgan.
David Adlington
analystMost of my questions have been asked. Maybe just one on free cash flow, which is down about 30% in the first 9 months, in large part due to working capital. I just wondered if you could talk to how you expect that to evolve through the rest of this year, particularly into next year, and whether we could expect an improvement.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you for your question. Maybe, Gabriele, you wanted to answer to this question.
Gabriele Galli
executiveAbsolutely. So first of all, we have to take into consideration that our business, as many others, is seasonal. So we posted an absorption of working capital this year, larger compared to the absorption of last year. But last year, we had still in place several actions delivering some improvements. So the comparison is putting together an year with a normal trend where there is some seasonal absorption with an year where, in 2023, we went on implementing some action, which led us to significant improvement in terms of overall absorption of working capital. Moving forward, of course, for the remaining part of the year, the seasonal release from now to December. And then for next year, if the market is going to improve in terms of demand, we see some possible improvement also in terms of accounts receivable. Of course, when demand is not super high, in some way, you should give some concession to customers. So I'm positive, in light of the possible positive development of the market, next year in EMEA.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Hugo Solvet of BNP Paribas.
Hugo Solvet
analystI have 2, please. One quick clarification on the renewals in France in 2025. You mentioned French market expected to grow low-double digits at least. What does it mean exactly in terms of renewal rates? Is it 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%? That would be helpful to have a bit more detail on this front. And second, if I remember well, back in H2 2023, you increased audiologist capacity in anticipation of a market acceleration, which turned out to be probably softer than what you expected. This year, again, you're increasing it mostly for the French renewals in anticipation of next year. So my question is, given all this available audiologist capacity, do you see a risk that you won't be able to leverage the business and expand margin next year if actually market growth does not pick up meaningfully? And I guess, what's the level of organic growth required to leverage the business going forward?
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you for your question. So with regards to our assumption for next year, you are right. We expect the market to grow double-digit. Then as I said before, I'm not able, to be very honest with you, to qualify more about what double-digit means, if it is low, if it is mid-teens, et cetera, et cetera, because this will depend a lot, of course, from the parameters that you have mentioned, including, of course, the repurchase rate. So on this, we have made our assumption, which we think it's not an over-optimistic assumption. It's not a very pessimistic one. But we are pretty confident that we should see a meaningful growth from the French market next year. So with regards with our ability, actually, and to our plan to increase our capacity, of course, we are working not only in terms of number of audiologists, we are also working in terms of training, in terms of many other things, of course. So the capacity in terms of number of audiologists is one of the key things that we are doing. Clearly, in a market like the one of this year, which has been basically 0 or slightly negative, this is something that has reduced our operating leverage in the EMEA region. And France has, actually, has been the market in which we have, let's say, had a lower profitability than expected because the market actually did not grow as expected. But in general terms, I see very difficult next year French market to not to grow substantially.
Operator
operatorThe next question is from Niels Leth of Carnegie.
Niels Granholm-Leth
analystNow with your activities in China, I'm sure that you have come across some of the Chinese hearing aid manufacturers. Would you consider to take in one of these suppliers in your Chinese operations or even in your European operations? And would you think that there would be substantial cost savings for you to bring in one of the Chinese manufacturers of hearing aids into your stores? My second question would be about the U.S. weather situation. Do you have any stores that would be closed for the remainder of the year because of the storms that we have seen recently?
Enrico Vita
executiveYes. So with regard to the first question and therefore, the Chinese manufacturers, we do not see at the moment Chinese manufacturers to be able to provide us what we require, which is, first of all, high-performing devices, high-quality devices. So this is not in our plan as of today. For the future, I don't know. As you know very well, we are committed to provide our customers the best technologies, the best products, quality products, et cetera, et cetera. So we will see in the future if any manufacturers coming from China will be able actually to provide all of this. Then with regards to your question about hurricanes, well, unfortunately, I think that U.S. has been hit by many different hurricanes, one in September, so in Q3, that was the Hurricane Helene, if I'm right, which hit Florida and southeastern U.S. states during 25th and 30th of September. Yes, during that period, during that time, we had some stores closed on 1 day. I think, out of my memory, about 50 stores closed for 1 or 2 days. Then, yes, we also had the Hurricane Milton in October. Also, in this case, we had some stores closed for some days. Yes, of course, I can't provide you any quantification, but let's say that as of today, all the stores are back to normal operations.
Francesca Rambaudi
executiveMaybe last question. We have Robert also in queue, and then we will close.
Operator
operatorThe last question is from Robert Davies of Morgan Stanley.
Robert Davies
analystThe question I had was just around the margin trajectory for the company. If I look back over the last 5 years, you've been within that 24% to 25% band. How should we think about that margin band going forward if you're continuing with the level of M&A in the U.S., you're continuing with the higher level of spend for marketing and even some of these additional costs ahead of the French reform. Is there any scope for that to go up? Or are you comfortable in that 24% to 25% band, and it's really pushing on the growth side that's more of a focus for you? And I guess, tied into that, could you quantify how much upfront costs you've loaded in preparing for this French reform? Because I know you called it out as one of the drags on the lower margins for the year.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you for your questions. So with regards to our margin development, let me underline one point, which is about the fact that the main reason for our margin is related development, is related to the growth of the European market. That is by far the most important reason for our margin development in the last 2 or 3 years. Because let's not forget the fact that basically now we see a flattish market demand in Europe for 3 years in a row. This year, 2024, 2023, and 2022. So let me say that at the end of the day, I think that we have done a decent job in terms of margin development in consideration of the fact that Europe did not grow -- as expected, did not grow at the historical levels. And I think we all know the reasons which are related also to the economic situation in Europe, et cetera, et cetera. Let me say that, of course, I'm positive that in the future, we can reestablish a positive trajectory on the back of the fact that from one side, the fundamentals of the markets are definitely still there. On the other side, definitely, we expect a market, a much more positive market next year. At least because of the very positive contribution from the French market, which on the contrary, was the main negative contribution to the growth of the European market in '22 and in '23. Let's not forget that the French market actually has become, after the French reform, the biggest market in Europe and the second-largest market in the world after the U.S. With regard to the quantification, I can't give you a number as of today. But of course, as I said, we do not want -- if we were just looking for efficiency, given the market development, maybe we should have reduced our number of audiologists. We thought that would have been a stupid thing in consideration of how we see the market growing next year.
Francesca Rambaudi
executiveThank you, everybody. And I kindly ask the operator to disconnect. Thanks.
Enrico Vita
executiveThank you. Bye.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.
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