Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi (AEFES) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Anadolu Efes First Half 2024 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Asli Demirel, and I am Investor Relations and Risk Management Director of Anadolu Efes. Our presenters today, Mr. Onur Alturk, the CEO; and Mr. Gokce Yanasmayan, the CFO. [Operator Instructions] Unless explicitly stated otherwise, all financial information disclosed in this presentation are presented in accordance with inflationary accounting. Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded and the link will be available online. Before we start, I would kindly request you to refer to our notes in our presentation regarding forward-looking statements. Now, I'm leaving the ground to Mr. Onur Alturk, Anadolu Efes CEO. Sir?

Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Anadolu Efes 2024 First Half Operational and Financial Results Conference Call. We are delighted to announce another quarter of solid volume momentum and robust growth, achieving a high single-digit increase in our Beer Group. This remarkable growth is further highlighted by a low single-digit rise in our consolidated volumes. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and volatile cost landscape, yet, we succeeded in delivering a solid expansion in gross profitability margin, which was supported by, of course, strong volume performance and revenue growth management initiatives, including pricing, focus on quality mix and premium mix and effective discount managements. On top of our strong top line results through a strict management of operational expenses, we were able to record a flat EBITDA margin. Last but not least, our robust financial discipline is clearly reflected in our consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, which stood at an impressive and healthy level of 0.8x as of June 30, 2024 and comfortably within our targeted leverage ratio range. And additionally, we have achieved a net cash position in the Beer Group. When it comes to second quarter, in the second quarter of '24, our Beer volumes surged by 7.1%, with strong performances in Turkey and followed by Russia and Moldova, of course, driving this growth. And Turkey Beer volume rose by 2.8%, while our international Beer volumes saw an impressive growth of 8.2%. And Russia maintained its momentum from first quarter, with volumes rising in the low teens, proving continued strength. And CIS countries, however, faced challenges, which I will come to details, and with volumes declining by mid-single digits on average. Ukraine, on the other hand, had a successful quarter as well, mainly supported by last year's low base and recovery in consumer demand. And when we come to Russia, let me discuss Russia in more detail. The Beer industry continued its growth momentum with mid- to high single-digit growth in the first half. The strong market growth can be attributed to a notable shift from other alcoholic beverages to beer and, of course, new product innovations of our company and substantial market investments. We outperformed the industry by registering a low teens growth in second quarter, which enabled us to strengthen our position in the premium and core segments while also gaining, of course, share in the nonalcoholic beer segment. Aside from volume growth, we also [ sustained ] market leadership on both value and volume basis while gaining share in both metrics. And Stary Melnik iz Bochonka and Stella Artois, Essa, and Hoegaarden were successful brands in this quarter, marking strong performances. When it comes to CIS and Turkey, tuning to our CIS operations, Moldova registered mid-teens growth and our volumes supported by industry expansion as a result of increased spending behavior of consumers as well as expanding consumer base. And contrasts, unfortunately, we observed softer performance in Kazakhstan and Georgia. Our Kazakhstan volume suffered from weak industrial dynamics and some national disaster that the country has faced like floods, earthquakes that affected the country during the second quarter. And Georgia volumes were adversely affected by production bottlenecks. But when we look at overall CIS performance, our CIS volume down mid-single digit in the average. Speaking of Turkey, building on a very high base from last year 2023 as well as a solid performance in first quarter, Turkey sustained strong volume performance, registered at 2.8% growth. And truly, it's exceeding our expectations. Volume was supported by increased sales in HoReCa, in hotel channels and the favorable tourism season, despite operating in a high inflationary environment. We observed a decrease in consumer purchasing. When we look at our soft drinks, let's brief you on this one, too. In the second quarter of the -- CCI's consolidated volumes increased by 0.7% and thanks to the contribution of Turkey, Iraq and Azerbaijan. Turkey volume was up by 1.8%, effective trade promotions, active consumer marketing, including UEFA Euro Cup activations; have driven this growth. International volumes demonstrated a modest recovery, posting a 0.1% increase, which marks an improvement compared to the previous quarter. Iraq and Azerbaijan continued to deliver strong results with 15.1% and 11.5% growth, respectively. In Pakistan, while volumes declined by 5.1% year-over-year, this still represents an improvement in volume performance when compared to the previous four quarters. Kazakhstan experienced a 10.2% decline in volumes, mainly due to the reasons that I mentioned for Beer as well, that lower consumer confidence, the return of the foreign customers to their home countries and a high comparison base from the previous year. Now let's move on to our operational results. Actually, we delivered strong results in top line figures as well as bottom line throughout the quarters, despite our efforts for effective pricing strategy, a focus on favorable mix addressing value generation and, of course, tight discount management. The adverse impacts on top line primarily came from the implementation of TAS 29 because of the mismatch between the inflation rates and the devaluation and appreciation of reporting currencies in international operations against the Turkish lira. The increase in [ RFS ] top line without the impact of TAS 29 will be 65% growth. With strong gross profitability and strict control of operating expenses, there was significant EBITDA contribution from Turkey operations in both beer and soft drink businesses. However, the EBITDA margin was pressurized, primarily due to the significant increase in raw material costs and transportation expenses in Russia. Our consolidated net income was recorded at TRY 3.9 billion. Increased interest expenses, along with a higher share of Turkish lira borrowing and significant FX losses from cash holdings had an adverse effects and net decline versus the same quarter of last year. However, these impacts were partially mitigated by deferred tax income resulting from the implementation of TAS 29. Free cash flow generation was flattish, despite lower operational profitability, which was supported by prudent capital expenditures and strict working capital management with the improvement in payables performance. Consequently, as I mentioned in the beginning, the consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA ratio remained at a healthy level at 0.8x, highlighting our strong financial position. And now our CFO, Gokce will give details on the financial metrics. Gokce?

Thank you, Onur. Good morning, good afternoon to everyone participating in our conference call today. Onur just summed up the consolidated results of Anadolu Efes, so I would like to go into more detail about the Beer Group results. So consolidated revenue for the Beer Group in the second quarter of 2024 was TRY 23.6 billion, down 2.8% from the same period of the previous year. The revenue generated from international beer operations fell by 6.8% during the period despite solid volume performance. Onur just explained this, but let me repeat because this is important. Simply, this is mostly due to the fact that inflation in Turkey outpaced the depreciation of Turkish lira relative to the currencies used in international operations reporting. Under IAS 29, last year financials translated in Turkish lira and are being indexed with inflation rate. And when depreciation of Turkish lira is less than the inflation, this naturally creates a decline in current year financials compared to the last year, even if local currency financials are same as last year. So in the second quarter, Turkey's Beer operations generated TRY 6.7 billion in sales revenue, a 9.4% rise. And in first half of the year, Beer Group's revenue increased by 1.6% to TRY 41.1 billion. And in the second quarter 2024, Beer Group's gross profit decreased by 3.6% to TRY 10.9 billion (sic) [ TRY 10.6 billion ] with 39 bps dilution in the gross profit margin to reach 46.2% (sic) [ 45.1% ]. While international Beer operations saw a decline in the second quarter to Turkey's beer operations saw a rise in the margins. This decline in international business was mainly caused by pricing difficulties in Russia despite considerable cost inflation tied to foreign exchange-linked raw materials. So consequently, the Beer Group's first half gross profit was recorded at TRY 18.1 billion with a flat margin of 43.9%. Next slide, please. Slide # 14. In the second quarter 2024, Beer Group's EBITDA dropped by 19.5% to TRY 4.4 billion, with 384 bps margin contraction from the same quarter the year before. The EBITDA margin of Turkey beer operation increased, though, in the second quarter and continuing the trend from the previous quarter. However, because of increasing transportation cost in Russia, international Beer operations faced higher operating expenses. This, along with lower gross profitability resulted in a decrease in the EBITDA margin. As a result, Beer Group's first half 2024 EBITDA was reported at TRY 5.5 billion with 418 bps decline in margin. And Beer group's free cash flow grew slightly from TRY 7.2 billion to TRY 7.4 billion in the second quarter. Better working capital management and a moderate increase in capital expenditure led to an improvement in cash flow despite decreased operating profitability and increased interest expense. I have to note that as of June 30, 2024, the Beer Group has a net cash position of TRY 91.8 million due to first half robust cash generation. So next slide, please, Slide 16. As already, I think, referred to a disclaimer, but let me repeat. Anadolu Efes's financial statements are prepared in accordance with TAS 29, this is the standard for financial reporting in hyperinflationary economies. As a result, all information, financial information disclosed on this call and in our earnings release are in full [ confirmative ] with TAS 29. However, financial information presented on this slide particularly excludes the impact of TAS 29 and is presented solely for analysis purposes. So these figures won't be aligned to Anadolu Efes's financials and have not undergone an independent audit. So excluding the impact of TAS 29, Beer Group revenue was TRY 41.1 billion with a growth of 74%. Again, excluding the impact of TAS 29, EBITDA increased by 45% in the first half to TRY 6.8 billion. And again, without the inflation impact, Beer Group net income was reported as TRY 3.2 billion for the first half. So next slide, please. About cash and debt management, again, at the end of first half, we had 57% of our cash in hard currency denominated in Beer Group and 60% in total consolidated Anadolu Efes, which is pretty much in line with our previous experience. And then, our net debt-to-EBIT (sic) [ net debt-to-EBITDA ] ratio is quite low for Anadolu Efes, it's 0.8x. And for the Beer Group, as we are in a net cash position, it's below zero. Next slide, please. And the following slide is on the risk management. So just let me provide you key figures here regarding hedges. We have around 89% coverage in aluminum exposure for the year of 2024, and we started to hedge for '25. So the total coverage for the time being is 28%. And for the FX exposure for the year 2024, we are fully covered in Russia and 94% of our exposure in Turkey. So basically, that ends my part of the presentation here, and I'm handing over to Onur. Thank you.

Gokce, thank you. So actually, as we have highlighted in our presentation, our first half results have strong resilience across both business lines, particularly in the Beer Group. Reflecting on the performance of the first six months and considering potential future challenges, we have decided to revise our guidance for both the Beer Group and CCI. For the Beer Group, we have made an upward adjustments to our top line figures, although we maintain our cautious stance regarding the downside risk of EBITDA margin. On the other hand, for CCI, we are making some downward revisions due to the lower purchasing power expectations and cautious consumer sentiment. So let me summarize as follows. We improved our Beer volume growth slightly, expectation to mid-single-digit growth with very good momentum achieved in Russia and Turkey Beer operations. On the other hand, our soft drink operations are revising volumes to flat or to low single-digit growth due to prolonged sensitivities in Middle East and expected decline in purchasing power. Therefore, on a consolidated basis, we now expect our volumes to grow by low single digits, which was low to mid-single digit growth previously. And following this one, we improve our Beer revenue growth expectation from low 20s to low 30s on a FX-natural basis as a result of improved volume guidance. Meanwhile, due to softer volume performance and slower pricing executions, we now expect our soft drinks operations revenue to grow by low 30s on an FX-neutral basis, which was low 40s growth previously. And finally, while our consolidated profitability expectations remain mostly the same, the ongoing operational challenges presented risk in our soft drinks in consolidated EBITDA margin, which was previously expected to remain flat, is now anticipated to either slight decline or remain flat. So this ends our presentation actually. So thank you for your interest and patience. We appreciate your attendance. Now, Asli, I think we are ready to take questions.

Yes, Onur. Thank you very much. There are already a couple of questions. So let me start with the first one. It's regarding the process in Russia. Can you give an update on the Russian JV acquisition? And what does the rejection of the transaction by Russian authorities mean? There are some more questions about Russia. Maybe I read all of them and then the answers can be given by you and Gokce, if that's okay. Can you disclose what percentage of your Beer Group cash is held in Russia? And can you provide an update when you expect to repatriate dividends from Russia?

I think there are lots of Russia questions, Asli, as far as I understand. Actually, I am -- we are unable to provide any further details beyond what has already been disclosed on this matter. And the current structure of the deal, as you already know, did not receive the necessary approvals. So only -- what I can say is [ all in all ] if there are any new developments on this regard, they will be duly announced to public. I think there are more Russian questions. But in addition, what I can say is, in the interim period, the business will continue to operate as usual under the management of Anadolu Efes. And the financial part...

Maybe I can take -- I think the question was about the EBITDA and cash share of Russia. So in EBITDA, Russia's share is around 60% to 65% of Beer Group and slightly less than 20% in our consolidated financials. So this is about the EBITDA. Actual cash, we don't want to go into the details of this question. But currently, we have around [ TRY 820 million ] cash in Beer Group as of June, and Russia's share is quite similar to last period that we were giving you [ examples ].

Thank you. What is the share of Russian operations in Beer on both EBITDA and cash balances?

That I answered.

Asli, I think there is a question about Russia's performance and the reasons. We can take this one. Russia is stated to be holding well despite sanctions with respect to consumer consumption. What are your remarks on demand, price challenges, competition, product and channel mix? I think this was a good one. Let's summarize the operation outlook in Russia. We have some reports, and we have three, actually, sources of Russia's beer markets. So we are witnessing an upward trend in the industry, and the second quarter keeps on like this one. Of course, first quarter was, again, a solid growth. So the [ shipments ] data show increase of around 9% market growth. [ Nielsen ] data also shows around 6%. The [ Rosstat ] data seems a little bit more, almost 10% year-to-date on year-on-year results. So when you look at the average of these three resources, it's around 8% market growth. And actually, we are outperforming the industry, and we are gaining market share both in volume and value. And of course, the source of the growth, you asked in the question, is mainly supported by increase of consumption, internal consumption and of course, the performance of the global and premium brands like Budweiser's double-digit growth; [ Stella Artois ], again, double-digit growth; Hoegaarden double-digit growth; Essa, double-digit growth partner as well. So also as asked in the question, the drivers behind this market growth -- beer market growth is mainly due to consumer shifts that we observed from wine, [ RTDs ], regular drinks and vodka to beer. And also, [ these ] categories grow due to unpredictable social environment effects and [ no ] issues, of course. And our team's marketing investment, our rich portfolio in the Russian business helps us a lot in this manner.

Thank you very much, Onur. There is a question about William Grant & Sons collaboration. My question -- it comes from [indiscernible]. My question regarding William Grant & Sons, any progress on operations that impacts on '24 financials?

Actually, William Grant & Sons operation started in Turkey almost 3 weeks ago. So we were dealing with supply in the first quarter. So it's too early to say anything to comment on this one. But for the 3 weeks, we are distributing William Grant & Sons. As you may also know, as Anadolu Efes Turkey, we have an agreement with William Grant & Sons. It's the biggest scotch distillery around the world to distribute and to marketing their products. And we distributed mainly in the whiskey category, Glenfiddich, Monkey Shoulder and [ Grant's ] both in key accounts, chains and, of course, in on-trade and off-trade channels. And also one of the most premium Gin brands, Hendrick's, also we started to distribute. But not only these categories. Also, we will distribute vodka and tequila as well. So it's building on. And the impacts on '24 financials that was asked as far as I can see, we are expecting low single digits in the revenue for this year, of course. But we have to think about then that this is just going to take 6 months. But in upcoming years, we are seeing a huge potential since the category growth, obviously, in gin organic growth in Turkey's -- in [ category ] around 30% for the last five years. So we are expecting exponential growth in this category.

Taking into account macro difficulties Turkish consumers are facing, what are your recent consumption trends in Turkey? Do you see any shifts between alcoholic beverage choices? Can you enlighten us?

Actually, our category in Turkey is resilient, I think first quarter and second quarter top line growth, especially volume growth. And that, I have to emphasize that volume growth is the most important thing in an inflation environment. So we are betting on volume growth, so -- and of course, effective pricing. But our category seems to be resilient in the first half, at least. And when you look at our third quarter, I think our previous conference calls, we mentioned that we were expecting a very good tourism support, which we gained actually. So tourism is helping us a lot. On the other hand, although we revised our expectations for the rest for the year to go, still, we are observing some early indicators of purchasing power problems of Turkish consumer, especially in the on-trade channel. These are all indicators. And after the [ tourism ] season, we can [ evaluate ] these indicators better. Yet again, the portfolio of Anadolu Efes seems to be adequate for all kinds of consumer demands. So I am expecting -- actually, what we observed about the shifts from other alcoholic coverage categories, wine seems to be suffering and also with the high prices of -- absolute prices of spirits actually, until now, it's helped us to grow the Beer category. So again, I am optimistic for the rest of the year, but I'm in a cautious stance, of course. That's just because of the purchasing power that comes from our pocket money analysis. Yet again, we are expecting to be solid in the upcoming months of the year.

Actually, there is one more question about Turkey, but it's already partly answered. Can you speak about expected pricing and profitability for Turkey business in the second half of the year? If anything, if you would like to add, it's more than welcome.

Well, as we are all familiar, we are increasing our prices in Turkey at least 2x a year because of the tax. When we look at Turkey operation, as I stated before, our volume has exited expectations. It almost issued 3% growth. When we look at the pricing that is asking the question, we started the year with [ 35% ] increase, as you can easily remember, in January. And in July, we have taken another almost 18% increase following the second [ excise ] increase, of course. And recently, we also implemented an intermediate increase, targeting selected products in the premium segments. It was around ranging -- let's say -- let me give you an interval. It was 5% to 11%. So effective pricing, as I mentioned, is in our agenda, and revenue management actions are in plan, and we are also evaluating since the -- because of the dynamics of macros and everything, we are [ evaluating ] price increases and our prices, mix management in terms of channel and product every month. So -- but until now, [ 35% ] increase in January and 17.7%, almost 18% increase 2 months ago. So that's the Turkish markets. But again, I'm optimistic because of the hotel channel -- because of HoReCa channel, because of the tourism, regional performances. Yet again, on the other hand, we are carefully observing consumer's confidence index, purchasing power.

There are too many repeating questions, therefore I'm not reading them.

Are they Russia questions, Asli, the repeating ones?

Yes, there are too many repeating Russia questions, which you already answered. Therefore, I'm not reading them once again.

Maybe there are newcomers, but just let us repeat that again. Actually now, we are unable to provide any further details beyond what has already been disclosed until now. The current structure of the deal did not receive any necessary approvals. If there are any new developments in this regard, they will be duly announced to the public immediately. But for now, that's all I can say.

There seems to be no more questions other than what we have already answered. But if there any unanswered ones, you can directly reach us by e-mail. So I think we can end the call right now.

Thank you.

Thank you very much.