AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome and -- to AngloGold Ashanti's Q3 2021 Results. Thank you very much for making the time today. Alberto and Christine will handle the lion's share of this presentation, and then I'll be handing over to Alberto for questions afterwards. As always, please do note the safe harbor statement at the front end of the presentation, which contains important information regarding forward-looking statements. I'd ask you, please, to take a moment to look at that. Without any further ado, I'm going to hand over to Alberto.

Thank you, Stewart. I will start where we always do, which is with safety. Our all-injury frequency rate was 2.15 injuries per million hours worked, which remained well below the ICMM member average. It's also worth noting that the injury severity continues to decline. We're making progress implementing our revitalized safety strategy, which is focused on the controls needed to eliminate our major hazards. What does it mean that each person on every site knows by heart that 3 or 4 major hazards that are most likely to cost fatalities and the priority controls we need to prevent them. This is crucial in eliminating accidents and especially fatalities from our sites. Our emphasis on COVID-19 remains on safely ensuring business continuity. We're also working with our host governments and communities to provide health care support and other assistance in areas that are feeling strained from the pandemic. Access to the vaccines is improving in our operating jurisdictions with all sites making good progress with about 1/4 of our workforce having received the first dose (sic) [ having been fully vaccinated ], about 45% of the workforce having received at least 1 vaccine dose. Momentum is picking up and higher vaccination levels will be a significant plus for our employees and our business. Operating and financial highlights. Moving to the operational and financial performance of the quarter under review. While we saw a better quarter with our operating parameters stabilizing, there is clearly a lot more that needs to be done to improve relative to the potential of our assets. We've started addressing the fundamental performance of the business. And while it will take time to get to where we want to be, you should start to see an improving trend. Gold production was 613,000 ounces, underpinned by strong performance at Siguiri, AGA Mineração and Tropicana. Reinvestments in our bigger assets, Geita, Tropicana and Iduapriem have tracked well and remain on schedule. Brazil is aggressively -- working aggressively to complete the tailings stack conversion to comply with new legislation. Cumulative inflation for the current year is estimated to be around 5%, mainly driven by fuel, freight, logistics, steel, heavy equipment from both consumable pricing and competition for scarce labor resources, particularly in Brazil and Argentina. COVID-19 impacted production by about 4,000 ounces, and all-in sustaining CapEx by about $20 an ounce in the last quarter. All-in sustaining CapEx were high, mainly quarter-on-quarter, due to a 27% increase in sustaining capital expenditure. We generated $18 million in free cash flow. This was lower year-on-year, mainly because of higher CapEx and a lower production and gold price. The balance sheet remains in solid position, given it's still very low, and we have a $2.5 billion liquidity. Revised guidance remains on track, albeit at the lower end of the production and the higher end of the cost range. Obuasi has successfully resumed underground mining, and we've reached an agreement to acquire Corvus Gold, which will give us a clear pathway to a Tier 1 production base in Nevada. At Quebradona, our mining operations license was approved by Antioquia’s Mining Secretary, which is good news. But on the less positive side, the national regulator -- environmental regulator declined to make a call. So we will require an appeal and a resubmission. And this will delay us by about 18 to 24 months. We are confident that we will get it in time, but it is a serious delay. Core priorities, back to basics. With about 2 months behind me now, it's clear we need to change how we do things. We must go back to basics and successful follow-up from this. My objective in the short to medium term is to offer a compelling investment proposition. Now our focus on cost, perhaps the most critical thing, but also sharpen project execution and improved cash flow portion. That starts with having the right team and structure in place, which makes the implementation of the proposed new operating model first the most -- the most crucial first step in our change. I'll cover this structure and operating model more in detail in a moment, but we're moving quickly on this and plan to have it in place by the end of the year. We move to strengthen our leadership. We put our best operators in charge of our Ghana business. And we have new leadership across our Brazil operations and Latin American operations, would continue to strengthen the bench. Marcelo Godoy has joined us from Newmont, bringing us one of the best minds in the industry on mine planning and asset optimization. He will be leading a detailed analysis together with our COO on every one of our operations, determining the capability of each asset and then developing detailed plans to close the gap between the current performance and their inherent potential. He will be leading -- in addition, we have a team conducting a productivity improvement and cost review. This is focused on removing costs that are not aligned to our key strategic imperatives. These teams are carefully scrutinizing the 2022 plans to ensure they can be delivered with confidence and establishing stretch targets, which will start to get at the potential of our assets. Improving our overall social license to operate is fundamental. We're working on safety. We're continuing to respond to our host government and community needs and making sure we have an updated and detailed climate response. All of this is vital to our long-term success. Unlocking value through a more accountable, effective organization structure. To ensure effectiveness and accountability in any business, functional service roles should not be located at multiple different layers of organization. Ideally, these roles should lie in only 2 places, which is at the corporate level and as close as possible to the assets that generate revenue. The 2-level structure improves accountability and outcomes by providing the assets directly from the resource needed to deliver their planned production, costs and other metrics. The corporate functions should have a clear mandate to set and govern minimum requirements through which the assets once performed and in special circumstances provide the asset specialists temporary high-quality support where needed. My aim is to ensure that we design and implement an operating model that ensures the right people are in the right places, making the right decisions at all times. I have a sort of conviction that the proposed course of action is in the best interest of the long-term success of the business and that many thousand stakeholders who depend on it. This is, again, fully supported by the Board and the Executive Committee. Moving into the quarterly performance. Here is a snapshot of some of the key operating and financial metrics. I don't intend on going through it in detail, but let me draw your attention to some key points. Let's start with capital, which more than doubled, as we continued to push ahead with our reinvestment strategy and compliance with TSF regulations in Brazil. We also continued to spend at Obuasi Phase 3 without the benefit of any meaningful production benefit. Exploration was also up more than 50%, again, also aligned with a sharper internal focus on improving our orebodies. We're still targeting at least to replace a depletion this year, probably slightly more than that. You will see the impact of the increased investment in our costs and cash flows which were also impacted by the lower production and lower price. While the operations faced a challenging 3 months, we did see an improving trend relative to the first 2 quarters. Some of the key points for the period: transitioning all our Brazilian operations to dry-stacking to meet regulatory tailings deadlines, completing the review of ground management plans at Obuasi and restarting mining operations and continuing reinvestment in exploration and development to improve flexibility and resource confidence, which is the foundation for improving our operational performance. COVID-19 infections have been steadily declining across all operation jurisdictions as the vaccine rollouts gained momentum. In Australia, pressure remains in the labor market; and in Brazil, our staffing levels are gradually returning to full complement. Still, we expect it will take some time before we return to pre-pandemic productivity levels. Africa overview. Kibali reported gold production of 94,000 ounces for the quarter and an all-in sustainable CapEx of $771 per ounce, which is in line with the same quarter of last year. Iduapriem's production of 48,000 ounces was significantly below the 69,000 ounces achieved in the same quarter of last year. Tonnes mined and processed were 20% higher. However, this was not sufficient to mitigate the impact of lower mine grades. We are making good progress, however, with waste stripping the Cut 7 and expect to access high-grade ore in Block 7 later this year. So we do expect a better year in 2022 in Iduapriem. AISC, or the all-in sustaining CapEx, for the period at $1,580 an ounce reflects the near-term investment in waste stripping and maintaining storage facilities. Siguiri, 77,000 (sic) [ 67,000 ] ounces was well above the 52,000 ounces achieved in the same quarter of last year. This reflects a combination of better grades and higher throughput as we ramp up the processing plant. All-in sustaining CapEx at $1,270 per 1 ounce was consequently 6% lower year-on-year, and we expect further improvements as we ramp up delivery of oxide ore from Block 2. Geita reported production of 125,000 (sic) [ 126,000 ] ounces, which is lower than the same quarter of last year. That mine is currently in a transition period between the depleted Nyankanga open pit and the new Nyamulilima open pit. Until then, it's entirely dependent on underground operations. I'm encouraged that development of the open pit is ahead of schedule. Ore mine will increase during the quarter and contribute 50% of gold production in 2022. I will probably add that it will be the first time we have 3 or 4 years of reserves and that should stay for the foreseeable future. That's a pretty good place to be for an asset like Geita. Brazil, Latin American overview. Brazil produced 102,000 ounces in the quarter, well below the 134,000 ounces in Q3 last year. So that's probably one of the regions where we've most been hardly hit. We had to take a short-term decision to scale back plant throughput to keep with our permitted tailings limits while we fast-tracked the transition to dry-stacking. The combination of lower production and the additional capital contributed to abnormally high all-in sustaining CapEx unit costs, which are not comparable to prior periods. All-in sustaining CapEx unit costs will trend down this difficult transition to dry -- when dry-stacking is complete. The Brazilian senior leadership team has been restructured as part of our operating model review and a full organizational review is underway. AGA Mineração reported a production of 84,000 ounces compared to the 103,000 ounces achieved in the same quarter last year. This is largely due to the underperformance of Córrego do Sítio mine, which will now be managed by the Cuiabá operating team. Capital period (sic) [ expense ] for the period was $61 million, which added $740 an ounce to all-in sustaining CapEx. Serra Grande's performance was significantly lower at 18,000 ounces relative to the 31,000 ounces reported in the same quarter last year. Costs included an additional $32 million of capital, which is equivalent to $1,800 an ounce and is clearly not comparable to last year. The general manager and site leadership team has been replaced. In Argentina, Cerro Vanguardia's operations are starting to normalize as COVID-related travel restrictions are lifted, allowing underground and open-pit mining to return to full capacity. Gold production of 38,000 ounces was 18% below the prior year's reporting period, which has the benefit of higher grade stockpiles. All-in sustaining CapEx at $1,402 an ounce was higher than previous year's, which reflects the increased capital of stripping or reserve development and maintenance projects that were put on hold during the COVID pandemic. We now go to Australia. Australia production was 24,000 ounces down year-on-year, largely due to the wall failure in the Boston Shaker open pit, which we highlighted in Q2. A strong Aussie dollar hasn't helped either. The pit wall slip at Tropicana resulted in gold production of 67,000 ounces compared to the 75,000 ounces in Q3 last year. This defers 30,000 ounces of gold production into next year. All-in sustaining CapEx at $1,146 an ounce was 5% higher than the prior year. At Sunrise Dam, gold production was 58,000 ounces, against 74,000 ounces last year. This reflects the unfavorable grade reconciliation in the underground mine. All-in sustaining CapEx was consequently higher at $1,485 an ounce compared to the prior year. Q4 production is expected to increase with higher grade ores at most -- at more than 3 grams a tonne from the Western Shear Zone and the newly discovered Frankie orebody. Mining in the Golden Delicious pit is progressing well, and this transitional material we stockpiled and blended with underground ore contributed to higher productions in the final quarter. Looking ahead, we expect to see ongoing improvements in our operational performance in Q4 as mines improve their productivities and ramp up production. We expect to see also improvements in Tropicana. We expect to not be mine constrained in 2022 and to see the full benefits of the Boston Shaker. Obuasi redevelopment project. You will be aware that the Obuasi redevelopment project is to be developed in 3 phases. Phase 1 and 2 have been completed, enabling a mining rate of 4,000 tonnes per day. Refurbishing of the KRS shaft and material sampling system is complete, so is GVS (sic) [ GCVS ] ventilation shaft and the process plant and associated infrastructure, including the new tailings and water management facilities. Focus is now on Phase 3, which sets up the required mining infrastructure to service the mine, as production areas move deeper and tilts to north into Blocks 10 and 11. Phase 3, which runs till end of 2023, includes the upgrade of the KMS shaft and the fuel-handling system, a new ventilation shaft near KMS, underground pumping stations and refurbishments of the BSVS subshaft below the KRS shaft. Setup is done and engineering and procurements are underway. We have maintained good continuity with the project team from the earlier phases and expect to work well with the Ghanaian contractors who supported the project in the first 2 phases. I would just -- before handing over to Graham, I would just say we are on track, as we said, by June to reach the 4,000 tonnes per day and hence the 250,000 ounces of production for 2022. So with now, I'll hand over to Graham to discuss the resumption of mining and an update on Phase 3.

Thank you, Alberto. Underground Mining resumed at Obuasi in mid-October. Underground mining activities had been voluntarily suspended following a sill pillar failure on the 18th of May, which resulted in a tragic loss of one of our colleagues. This was quite a disruption to the project ramp-up, which had been tracking reasonably well and had navigated the global pandemic challenges. A detailed review of the mining and ground management plan was conducted by a cross-functional internal team and supported by an independent third-party, Australian Mining Consultants. A comprehensive series of protocols have been introduced to supplement the existing operating procedures. The full suite of procedures ahead of the mining front now includes the existing systemic pro drilling procedure, extensive use of technology, including cavity monitoring systems and cavity auto laser systems, augmented with visual inspections to confirm the position and status of backfill in previously mined areas. These protocols have been integrated into the mine operating system. It's estimated that the supplementary operating procedures introduced following the review will add about $10 to $20 a tonne to the mine's operating costs or about $50 per ounce. This does not materially change the mine plan or Obuasi's published ore reserves and mineral resources. Our production in 2022, as the mine ramps up, is estimated to be around 240,000 to 260,000 ounces per annum for that year at an all-in sustaining cost of about $1,250 to $1,350 per ounce, with cash costs around $900 and $1,000 an ounce. As Alberto mentioned, the plan is to undertake the ramp-up in the first half of the year, achieving the 4,000 tonne per day rate by the middle of the next year. We estimate that in the fourth quarter of next year, the annualized production rate will be around 320,000 to 350,000 ounces a year, and we expect the annual production will remain at around that level in 2023 until Phase 3 is completed in quarter 4 of 2023. At that point, we estimate that the mining rate will step up to around 5,000 tonnes per day. With all 3 phases of the project complete, production from 2024-2028 anticipated to average 400,000 to 450,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of around $900 to $950 per ounce. Thanks, Alberto.

Thanks. Graham.

Thanks. Yes, now, Christine. Yes.

Thanks, Graham. I'll now discuss the financials. Our cost performance reflects a significant reinvestment phase at key assets across our portfolio, in particular, Iduapriem, Geita and Tropicana, and as Alberto mentioned, also the Brazil tailings compliance cost. Our focus remains on improving our operational performance, which will be underpinned by cost and capital discipline. Cash costs increased 23% or about $172 an ounce to $927 an ounce, and that was largely due to lower grades stockpile and gold-in-process movements and inflationary pressure. This was partly mitigated by higher byproduct sales, lower royalty payments, improved efficiencies and weaker local currencies. Recovered open pit grades are 32% lower year-on-year with most operations reflecting lower grades except for Siguiri and Sunrise Dam. Recovered grades from underground operations were 2% lower year-on-year at all operations except for Kibali. Underground grades have, however, improved by 6% against the prior quarter at all operations except for Obuasi, with CVSA recording a 46% increase in recovered grade and Geita, a 19% increase. Stockpile drawdowns were noted at Geita, Iduapriem, Tropicana and Siguiri. So compared to the previous quarter, cash costs improved by 8%, mainly due to higher production from producing assets and lower operating costs. All-in sustaining costs for the quarter were 35% or $356 an ounce higher at $1,362 an ounce compared to the third quarter of 2020 and that was on the back of higher cash costs and the planned higher capital expenditure to improve mining flexibility and orebody confidence as well as tailings compliance in Brazil. We saw sustaining capital increased by 70% to $213 million and that was mainly due to the Brazil tailings capital expenditure and continued stripping activities at Tropicana and Iduapriem. All-in sustaining costs in the third quarter of 2021 included an estimated $20 an ounce impact due to COVID-19 and an estimated $94 an ounce impact relating to the Brazil tailings compliance program. For the year-to-date, the COVID impact is estimated at $43 an ounce, and that includes $20 an ounce related to estimated additional costs and $23 an ounce related to the lost production of 47,000 ounces. We are keeping a close watch on inflation. Cumulative inflation for the year-to-date is estimated at around 5% for the group, and that was predominantly driven by the current level of the Brent crude oil price, higher freight and logistics costs, higher steel and heavy equipment pricing, some bulk consumable pricing and competition for scarce resources, particularly labor in key jurisdictions, including Brazil and Australia. We are focusing on the retention of critical skills and strengthening the necessary training and graduate programs for succession planning. We also continue to proactively monitor global supply chains to maintain resilience and continuity of supply and did not experience any material negative impacts of supply shortfalls during quarter 3. Due to our strategic partnerships on global spend categories as well as stocking strategies at our operations, we have benefited from a delayed inflation impact. However, we have increasingly seen cost increases in the third quarter of 2021 and anticipate continued pressure throughout the remainder of 2021 and into 2022. We will use our long-range consumable contracts, leverage our global spend and our operational excellence program to mitigate these cost pressures. Moving on to the balance sheet. Our balance sheet strategy continues to enforce disciplined capital allocation and long-term balance sheet improvement based on a self-funded approach. Adjusted net debt at $871 million, a 60% down from the peak. We remain committed to maintaining a robust balance sheet with an adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA target ratio of 1x through the cycle. Our current ratio of 0.43x is well below that target. Liquidity remains strong and continues to provide good flexibility. We currently have cash balances of $1.1 billion, excluding our share of the Kibali cash balance of $512 million. From a liquidity perspective, cash is mainly supported by the multi-currency $1.4 billion RCF, which was largely undrawn. The Corvus transaction is anticipated to close during Q1 2022, and the acquisition cost will be funded from available cash on hand. On the 22nd of October, we successfully raised a new 7-year bond of $750 million priced at a record low coupon of 3.375%. This translates into an interest saving of around $13 million per annum. The proceeds from the new bond will be used to repurchase the $750 million, 5.125% notes due in 2022 through a cash tender offer followed by the redemption of any remaining notes. There are no other significant near-term maturities. Our dividend policy remains unchanged, which is 20% of free cash flow pre-growth capital paid semiannually. We paid an interim 2021 dividend of USD 0.06 per share in August based on free cash flow generated in the first half of the financial year. The final dividend will be formula-based and declared at the end of the financial year. Our free cash flow continued to be impacted by lock-ups of VAT at Geita and Kibali and export duties at CVSA. In Tanzania, the recoverable VAT input credits increased by $8 million to $152 million despite a $7 million offset against corporate tax payment in September. The offsets for the VAT accumulated since July 2020 and is expected to continue although there is an expected lag in the administrative process. We continued to engage with relevant Tanzanian authorities regarding a recovery mechanism on the historical VAT that was accumulated until 30th of June 2020 and the historical amount is $132 million net. In the DRC, the cash is held in the Kibali JV's bank account in U.S. dollars, which is fully available for operational requirements. Barrick, our JV partner and the operator of Kibali, continued [Audio Gap] of $74 million. And in Argentina, the export duty receivables remained at $23 million. CVSA had a cash balance equivalent to $147 million on the 30th of September 2021, of which $140 million is eligible to be declared as dividend. We've submitted applications to the Argentinian Central Bank to approve this amount to be paid offshore. Finally, our credit ratings remained unchanged during the quarter. Both Moody's and Fitch maintained an investment-grade rating for the company, with Moody's maintaining a negative outlook and Fitch a stable outlook. S&P maintained a rating of 1 notch below in business grade. Concluding on the guidance for 2021. Our revised guidance issued in August remains on track. We're tracking towards the bottom end of the range for the revised production guidance of 2.45 million ounces to 2.6 million ounces. As in the prior years, Q4 is expected to be our peak production quarter with improvements expected at Iduapriem, Siguiri, Australia and Brazil. We are tracking towards the top end of the range for both total cash costs and AISC. The revised guidance is $890 an ounce to $950 an ounce and $1,240 an ounce to $1,340 an ounce, respectively. Other operating expenses estimated of $90 million includes Obuasi care and maintenance costs of between $45 million to $50 million for 2021. Guidance excludes any impact on production and costs relating to the COVID pandemic. The revised guidance also does not assume any production contribution from Obuasi for the second half of 2021, as underground ore will only be used to replenish the run-of-mine stockpiles after recommencing underground ore mining in mid-October 2021. We expect Obuasi to ramp up to the full mining rate of 4,000 tonnes a day by the end of the first half of 2022. Capital expenditure is tracking within the guided range of 1,000 -- or, let's say, $1,030 million to $1,190 million. For the remainder of the year, we will continue our reinvestment program as we pursue key growth-driven brownfield projects across the portfolio. Our sustaining capital spend rate for the 9 months ended 30th of September was $288 an ounce, which was in line with our estimated spend levels of $270 to $290 an ounce for the year. Growth capital expenditure in Q4 relates to Obuasi, Geita, Tropicana, Siguiri and then the 2 Colombian projects, Gramalote and Quebradona. Until Obuasi Phase 2 achieves commercial production stage by mid-2022, reserve development capital will continue to be classified as gross project capital. So despite the reclassification of capital, the overall Obuasi capital remains unchanged. Key risks facing the business including inflationary pressures and the continued spread of COVID-19 and higher-than-normal employee turnover rates. In Brazil, our tailings facilities are currently being converted to dry-stacking operations in advance of decommissioning the existing tailings facilities. This program taking place amidst the COVID-19 pandemic is leading to increased competition for skills and engineering resources, which has resulted in an increase to the planned investment to complete the conversion by the legal deadline. Our current estimates indicate that capital expenditures required in 2021 to implement this new technology will not exceed $150 million, and we expect this work to continue during 2022 to 2025. But based on preliminary estimates today, we anticipate that the annual capital expenditures for each of these years, while still material, would be significantly less than in 2021 and will decline over time. So with that, I'll now hand over to Alberto to conclude. Thank you.

Thank you, Christine. So looking forward. So why AngloGold Ashanti? We have a high-quality asset portfolio, a self-generated project pipeline, great people and excellent balance sheet. Those are the critical foundation blocks to make a long-term success of the company. However, we are not realizing our full potential. There is significant latent potential value to unlock. How do we unlock it? We have to get back to basics. We have to get the business of mining right. We will continue to strengthen our teams wherever necessary, ensuring we have the right people in the right roles at every level. The operating model review will ensure we're optimally structured and organized to execute work in a way which supports our values and our strategy. Our program of assessing the full potential gap will be fundamental in regaining the asset competitiveness that we have lost or, in other words, significantly increasing asset productivity and reducing costs. We will, at the same time, continue to entrench our leadership in ESG, particularly in the climate sphere, where we've more than halved our emissions over a little more than a decade. I firmly believe the process we are undertaking, this is necessary, and the journey to begin to taking AngloGold Ashanti and its valuation back to its place among the top gold mining companies, which is where it belongs. Thank you. With that, I will open to questions.

[Operator Instructions] At this stage, I'd like to hand over back to Mr. Bailey for questions. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Judith. And Alberto, these are from the webcast. In the first instance from Sandile Magagula is from Umthombo Wealth. The first one is, could you take us through the inflationary pressures at Serra Grande? And what has been the main driver? And is this trend sustainable into 2022?

Look, local inflation has been in Brazil around 8% due to pressure on primary products, COVID impacts and labor pressures. But the main issue by far has been the spending on tailings is $150 million of our CapEx. If you put it in terms of the production of Brazil, it's about $300 an ounce. And so that hit us very hard. So yes, inflation has been complicated, but the biggest influence has been the TSF. And we've also had to reinvest a significant amount in creating operational flexibility. A big part of the issue that we have faced in Brazil is that we have mines that are mine constrained, which is the worst thing to be. You want to be constrained where your most expensive capital assets are, which is the plants and not in the mine. In many ways, we've locked themselves into corners. And that's where we've had a lot of the big [indiscernible] and the very low grades that we have seen.

Thanks, Alberto. Secondly, at Siguiri, recovered grades have improved by 24%. Can we expect this trajectory to be maintained into next year?

Look, the main reason for this has been Block 2. As we probably said that from months ago, that is a higher grade oxide and, as all of you know, that leads to much more productive and higher grade. It's actually an increase in 50% in the grade. So yes, we expect that to continue in 2022. Nevertheless, there are also significant things to improve. We need to improve the productivity of the plant. We need to improve labor productivity. So there's a lot of things. Costs are really not -- are too high and not acceptable in Siguiri. But we are happy with the -- how Block 2 is performing.

Across all operations, with the exception of Kibali and Siguiri, there's been a common issue, which is softening of grades. Why is this the case? Is the trend also common to peers?

No. Look, this is interesting. That's a good question. If you can see our cash cost increased in the quarter versus quarter at about $180 an ounce. And $140, we say, it's lower grade, and about $40 is that we had to use inventory from lower-grade stockpiles. Actually, this is a consequence. It's not a decision. When you use the stockpiles or a lower grade is that in most cases, we were not able to meet the plans that we wanted. It's not that we had a plan and we found lower grades. It's that we were not able to meet our plans. So take, for example, Tropicana, we have the issues in the beginning with the Havana and that affected the whole '21, and we were really in catch-up. And when you're in catch-up mode, you're far away from your optimal plan and then you have those issues. Brazil is clearly an example of that. The lack of operational flexibility and the fact there'll be [indiscernible] means that any small problem you had, and we didn't have a small, we had a lot of problems with people and COVID and all of that. So we were way behind of our plans, and then that leads to lower grades. And then you have just the Iduapriem, we were reinvesting, we had the waste rock stripping. And then you had a -- also in Sunrise, you were in transition; in Geita, you were in transition to Nyamulilima. So all of that were, I would put it, temporary lower grades. So we expect to see better grades in some of those. So Tropicana, we would expect a better grade in 2022. In Iduapriem, for example, we also would expect to see better grades. And as we assess this full potential and we are able to ensure that we have more flexibility and we are able -- in our mines, and we're able to ensure that we are not mine constrained in most of our assets and that's part of the job of that full potential assessment, we should see a better performance in, let's say, 18 to 24 months.

Thanks, Alberto. And then lastly from Sandile, what significance and -- I think does the recent coup have -- in Guinea have on AngloGold and its future in the country? And are we likely to pursue any diversification, bauxite, aluminum, et cetera, in Guinea?

Not really. If you read all of the communications by the new government, it is that they want to work with foreign investments. I think they've gone out of their way to ensure the continuity of the operations. We certainly have felt that we have delegations -- actually, as we speak, on the ground that have been speaking to the different levels of government including the new Minister of Mines that used to work with us. And all of the feedback that we have received is encouraging. So we will keep at what we do. We are gold miners, if anything, maybe some [indiscernible] but certainly not much more at this stage.

Thanks, Alberto. Then a couple of questions on a similar topic here. [ David Horton ] from Global Mining Research and [ Ahmad Hakim ] from Oasis Asset Management here. Effectively, elimination of duplication is one of your goals. Could you give us some examples of -- so we can understand the scale of the issue? And what are the potential savings and time for execution? Is the first part.

Look, the operating model is more around how the functions interact with operations. And we should be finished by -- most of it by the end of this year. And by February, when we next meet, we can give you more numbers. What are we talking about? It's more that the issue is the lack of effectiveness that, that type of model would -- entails. When you talk to several of -- and I have spoken to all of them of our operators in the old model, they had above them people in functions, but that were part of the line that is sort of a bit strange. So we had 2 Chief Operating Officers and each had structures, combined had about 200 people in functions that they were all a lot of them, many good people, but they were trying to help the assets from the center but the assets at the same time were trying to run their day-to-day operations. And there was a lot of confusion and then a lot of distraction, if I may say so. What we will have now is those functions will go to where they should sit, which is in the corporate in functions. And then the line really is empower, strengthen. And by that, I mean -- you take, for example, the head of Tanzania will be reporting to 1 COO that's reporting to me. So it's clarified. He doesn't have 4 or 5 bosses, like 1 of the GMs told me, "I have 5 bosses, I sometimes don't know if there'll be really 1 and then the CEO." So the accountabilities are clear. More importantly, in the old model, we had functions sitting at 4 levels of the organization. So for example, you have HR at the corporate, you had at the COO International, 1 Head of HR. At Latin America, you had another head of HR, and then you went to Colombia and you had another head of HR. What you have now, it's only in 2 places. So you go to Colombia, and you have -- take again, Australia, for example, it's a big -- is VP business unit. Michael, he will have everything to deliver day-to-day. So he will have reporting into him finance person, HR person, technical person and supply. And then they will only sit there and at the corporate. So only in 2 levels of the organization. And the people at the corporate are really there to -- for governance and for just to put the methodology of, for example, in supply, well, we're going to have supply excellence, we're going to have 1 master data. We want to have a contracting system and other things. And maybe in supply, anything that we can do at scale. So the few big contracts will be negotiated at a center, but most -- the bulk of the -- what they buy, how they buy, when they buy is decided by the assets. So I repeat that business unit, Australia, will be empowered to deliver day-to-day results and they will also be held accountable to deliver day-to-day results.

Thanks, Alberto. Two questions on Colombia. Could you just explain what happened at Quebradona? And second, with that delay, could you just talk us through what the cash burn rates are there at the moment?

What happened is we got good news, which was we got the approval of the state that wasn't given because there was some opposition by some landowners over there. At the national level, we got a delay. Basically, they didn't reject it. They just said we need more information. We have assessed the situation, and we are comfortable that we can address all of their technical sort of uncertainties and they are all addressable. There's no showstoppers, but it will delay the process by about 18, 24 months. One of the reasons is because there's going to be a change in government. So I really don't think that this agency will do much more right now. The government will change in 7 months. So we're estimating an 18 to 24 month delay. What we did do is we had to resize and probably that was the first thing we did weeks into it was resize the Colombia to be able to withstand that delay. And so we would have reduced by about 40% to 45% the burn rate in Colombia and broadly it's around to about $8 million per year or something like that. So that's what we have done.

Thanks, Alberto. The next question is from Adrian Hammond from Standard Bank. He says, Barrick recently alluded to an agreement in principle with the DRC regarding repatriation of funds in the form of dividends and repayments of shareholder loan. What does this mean for current monies held within the country of about $0.5 billion AngloGold share? And what does it mean for future cash flows from Kibali relative to the current 60-40 split?

Well, I am crossing my fingers. We're in touch with Barrick on a weekly basis. And I think that this time, we will see what we have announced in the past. What that means is there is 50% of what we -- of what is the joint venture's profit, let's say, remain in country, 40% we repatriate now, and they are distributed as loan repayments. So that 50% is that $500 million and our share is the $512 million that we have locked up. As you mentioned, Mark Bristow has alluded to an agreement where we will be able to get that $512 million out in 2 forms: in dividend repayment; and once an agreement is reached, on loan repayments. So we will be able to shed more light when we -- when that last repatriation mechanism is approved. A permanent solution will be possible, as we said before, with an exception of the Mining Code.

Thanks, Alberto. And then once that $0.5 billion comes out, this is again from Adrian, would you distribute it all to patient shareholders or only 20% as per dividend policy?

At this stage, let me wait the excitement that, that is approved, but we -- I think it will be a significant addition to that 20% dividend policy at this stage. I wouldn't see anything to change that. But that will be $100 million more, so that will be good.

All right. Excellent. Thanks, Alberto. Just -- operator, if we could go over to the line. I see there are a few questions on the line.

The first one comes from Jared Hoover of RMB Morgan Stanley.

I've got a few questions from my side, please? I think I'll start with the easier ones. There was an earlier question around cost inflation. And I just wanted to clarify earlier, it seems from your commentary that you've pretty much been buffeted from inflationary pressures year-to-date, tracking about 5% because of your stocking strategies. But going forward, it looks like some of that pressure could actually come into the business from the fourth quarter and into 2022. So I was hoping that maybe you could give us some color as to whether -- should we be thinking about double-digit cost inflation pressures from an OpEx perspective into 2022? And would that be on an absolute level or on a dollar per tonne basis? And I guess what I'm trying to get to is how much more upside there is to current cash cost outlook of $800 to $840 an ounce, obviously, notwithstanding the fact that there'll be updated guidance in February next year? So that was my first one on cost inflation. And I'll hand it over, and then I'll follow up with a few more.

Okay. We are -- what we have seen up to date for the year is that 5%. At this stage, we don't have better information than probably anybody else. So we're assuming the similar 5% to 6% inflation. We don't have any evidence. I -- probably, in my gut, I think it will be somewhat higher, but that's what we are assuming in our budgets and all of that, which is significant, and then how we try to compensate with that. I -- you don't really know who to believe if you -- how temporary this nature, if the bottlenecks and supply model banks are going to start to improve. There's a lot of uncertainties. So at this stage, we are not planning for anything more than 5%.

Okay. And then just staying on the cost inflation theme. I think we've touched on OpEx, but in terms of CapEx and new project inflation, some of your peers are talking anywhere between 10% and 20% on that. And I mean if I think about your business, I think you've alluded to 2019 to 2020 CapEx being a bit too low. So potentially, there's upside in the future to your CapEx. Then you throw in some inflationary pressures given that you are recapitalizing the business and project items. So -- I mean I'm really trying to get a feel for how much more upside there is to current CapEx in your outlook on top of the fact that you'll have Brazilian TSF CapEx coming through between '22 and '25. So any comments on project CapEx and new projects would be quite useful, please?

Look, if you look at the growth in the total capital between 2020 and 2021, roughly, it's going to be about $400 million increase, out of which about $150 million is Brazil, but then there's $250 million in other; Obuasi data, Tropicana, Brazil, et cetera. So it is a massive increase. If you look at -- what I've said is a lot of it was needed. There was -- we need to improve the operational -- the mine flexibility. You cannot be mine constrained any longer. But it's not going to be. So we probably won't go back to the levels of 700, but it's not going to be 1,200. Where? It's going to be somewhere in the middle. I don't like putting forecast, but we should be able to grow in 2023, especially, to a much more reasonable number. Now how much will inflation -- if you look at -- our cases are different than the big -- because some of these companies are in steady states. And so when you're in steady state, then inflation is hitting you, it's not an inflation, it's not hitting us, it's that -- I mean the $400 million is dwarfing any inflation that we're having. So we should be able to -- yes, as I said, reduce that very high amount. It is -- this year is really this and the next are going to be peak years. And so in spite of any inflation, we should be able to reduce those numbers.

And then I've got 1 or 2 more questions on the operating model as well. And I appreciate that the operating model...

Maybe if you have 1 last question because we need others to have questions, too, I think, but just 1 last question, and then we make a return if we have time.

Yes, yes, sure. Sure. So just on the operating model. I mean I appreciate that it's qualitative in nature and that you probably give us some quantitative numbers in February. But I was hoping you could just chat to some of the changes that you've made to date? I know you've alluded to changing the CDS team in Brazil. I think there's maybe 1 COO at the moment. But if you could just chat to maybe some of the promotions you made within your business, maybe some of the hires you made and why? And will you be disclosing that technical review that Marcelo Godoy is currently busy with? I'll leave at that for now.

Look, -- so we have -- we will announce the full structure, the full [ ExCo ] structure in probably in a couple of weeks. And we'll talk more about, in February, why would -- there's legal sort of processes that we need to finish and we just don't want to jeopardize any of that. It's more from a legal perspective that I preferred not to talk about. But I did put out the structure in the presentation. So it's very clear. It is 1 COO; 1 CFO; 1 CTO; 1 CDO, probably new, Chief Development Officer. So that's all in the presentation. But the people, I can tell you that there has been -- we talked about a new person leading South America. So that was the person who was in Argentina, is now going to be the leader of Argentina and Brazil, the SVP head. We're also solidifying that whole team. We are bringing the finance person from Colombia. We're also bringing a very experienced HR person also into that Latin American position. We have our top, I think, -- and Mike [indiscernible] one of our top operators that has done an excellent job in Tanzania, will be also now moving into Obuasi and will be looking at both Iduapriem and Obuasi. And then -- so I think that -- then on the new hires at the [ ExCo ], just as I will probably mention later, Graham Ehm will be retiring at the end of this year. And so we have to bring a CTO, and that is Marcelo Godoy. He was working at Newmont. His resume, again, is, I think, exactly what we needed. Really enormous experience in project development, in mine planning, in resource optimization and lately in exploration. So we are very happy with Marcelo. And then also, unfortunately, Italia, our HR Head, had come back actually as a consultant. She wasn't full in the role, but she has wanted to retire and move to Boards and other things. And so we recruited Lisa Ali. She is, by training, a chemist -- biochemist. Career: 10, 12 years in BP, was CEO for a while, went back into HR and has been leading the HR in Newcrest. So that's, I think, an interesting strengthening of the team right now. So probably that's as much as probably I can share right now.

The next question comes from Dominic O'Kane of JPMorgan.

Just 2 slightly interrelated questions. For Colombia, do you regard Quebradona and Gramalote as interdependent project approvals? So does it delay Quebradona naturally push down the road by at least 18 months to 2 years of an approval for Gramalote? And then going beyond that, I've recognized the comments around the update on the operating model for February. But given the portfolio review that you've done so far during your tenure, do you think that the sort of longer-term guidance that was provided earlier in the year is still reliable in terms of the sort of full year outlook for production costs, CapEx, et cetera?

So thank you. So the answer to the first question is no. They are not interrelated. They are completely different in my view. Gramalote is a JV. We don't operate it. We used to be, but for some reason that I don't fully understand, we are not anymore. And so that right now is the project as it was -- didn't meet our thresholds. They were spending the JV $17 million more, so $8.5 million of our part, to optimize -- re-optimize and improve the economics. So we will take a decision at the end of that. If it's a go, then we'll go earlier, but they're not interrelated. And again, we don't run it. So it's probably easy from that point of view. And then Quebradona, that will be a project with very strong economics. And so it's more an issue of getting that environmental license. And then it's a complicated blockading project. It will take time. It won't be ready in many, many years, but it will -- we will try to go as quick as possible when it is approved. If we go in terms of February and guidance -- so what was exactly the question? Now -- I wrote guidance, but nothing more.

My question is, obviously, with the capital markets update earlier in the year...

Yes, yes, yes. Thank you. It's okay. Yes, yes. It's a capital market. Look, I have been clear that I -- this has started all over. I will only give guidance in February for 2022. And maybe we will have 3-year guidance by the end of '22 or in '23. So why is that? Because look, I -- one thing that I understand very well is that credibility is difficult to build and very easy to lose. And I've asked for your indulgence in that. But when we come out with numbers, I want to be as firm as possible in the understanding that we can deliver on them. And so that's why we will only do the February -- the 2022 in February. And then only after we have assessed the full potential, what we can do, will we then give us 3- to 4-year guidance. But let me tell you probably something related to that, and there's been question that I have been asked and it is what is the optimal size? Or am I worried about the optimal size? Or is there a number that we will need to get to? And the answer is no. I think that the structures that we are building on the operating model, the functional and organization, like the Chief Technology Officer, that is a very technical, highly qualified, not in expensive organization, you can sustain it for an organization that has around 3 million ounces, it can be plus or minus 10% or 15%, probably minus 5% of that. So wherever we get to around that, it will be okay. I'm not wedded to any particular size. What I am wedded is that whatever assets we have in our portfolio performs at its peak potential and adds value to the company. But yes, the long-term guidance, it will take some time.

At this time, I would like to hand back to Ludwig -- I mean to Alberto for closing remarks.

Okay. So thank you all for joining us today. As I said before, you know that Graham Ehm will be retiring at the end of this year. And so we bid a very warm farewell to Graham, who has not only built a very strong record of delivery in AngloGold for more than 2 decades at the organization that has exemplified its values at each step of the way. Graham will oversee the restart of Obuasi 2021 and will also -- is working very closely with Marcelo in the coming months to ensure a smooth handover of the portfolio. So thank you, again, all. It's been an interesting long day, and we will reconnect at our full year results in February of next year. Thank you all, again. Bye.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, with that, the conference has concluded. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.