AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti Full Year Market Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Thanks very much, Chris. Good afternoon, everyone. And to those of you joining us from the Americas, good morning, and welcome to our 2023 market call. We have Alberto and the full Exco team here to help run you through our performance. But before we start, let me call your attention to the fact that we'll be making forward-looking statements, and we will reference certain non-GAAP financial information during the course of the remarks. Slide 2 is our safe harbor statement. It's important, and I would ask you please to refer to it. I'd also just like to apologize for the delay in releasing the report today. We had a glitch on our side that was a little tricky to overcome. So thanks for your forbearance on this. And we hope this call will be fulsome enough to talk you through the detail in a way that's helpful. Over to you, Alberto.

Thank you, Stewart. Good day, and welcome to our results call. Before we get into the details of what has been a very good year for us, I'd like to address an issue you may have picked up in our release today. During our year-end audit, AGA, AngloGold Ashanti, found a potential error in the calculation of a deferred tax asset at Obuasi in 2022. This potential error could impact our earnings by up to $146 million between 2022 and the first half of 2023. The error is noncash and has no impact on production, cost, cash flow, value of the asset or anything related. Let me be clear. The facts and the numbers are very clear. For our practical purposes, this is an impairment of $146 million. However, there is still an ongoing discussion with our previous auditor, about whether and how much of this error should be accounted for in our eventually reinstated 2022 accounts. Any potential restatement is a time-consuming, complex process made so more by the fact that we're working with 2 sets of auditors. All parties must agree on the nature and quantum of any adjustments before we are able to issue our 2023 results, which we will do as soon as possible. That's that. Now let's move to what really matters. A strong set of results we are all very proud of. The aims as I joined AGA in late 2021 was simple. Close the value gap with our peers. To do it, we've worked to address several interlocking initiatives that together will substantially improve our business. We've still got work to do, but we've made good progress on our original priorities. Most important of all, we've closed the cost gap with our major peers. We've done it safely. We're now among the safest mining companies anywhere in the world. We've improved predictability, again achieving guidance on production and cash costs, this increasingly sets up apart in the peer group. We've been decisive on loss-making operations and projects that don't fit our portfolio. That allows us to narrow our focus on the things that drive value. Obuasi's recovery strategy is progressing to plan. We've declared a new 9.1 million ounce inferred mineral resource at Merlin, which almost doubles our resource position in this new gold district. [ We've ] more than replaced reserve depletion in the past 5 years. We're building on a strong climate track record with a series of new emission reduction projects. And finally, last but not least, our primary listing on the New York Stock Exchange gives us exposure to the world's deepest pool of capital. We've recorded a strong H2 performance after a series of challenges in H1. Gold production was up to 15% with a standard performance from Iduapriem, Tropicana, Geita and Kibali. Cuiaba exemplified the resilience we're building in the business. Even after losing much of Q1, in the pivot to concentrate production, it delivered ahead of budget, which in turn drove a 9% improvement in cash costs. And Obuasi recovery from poor ground conditions in Q3 is proceeding to plan. Perhaps more importantly, the better production results helped drive $314 million in free cash flow in H2, showing the much-improved health of the underlying business. The much stronger H2 ensured we ended the year on a solid footing. We reported a record safety performance, achieved guidance on production and cash costs, our redomicile process is complete. We've taken decisive steps to place CDS on care and maintenance and to sell Gramalote. We've made a major discovery at Merlin, which translates into a fivefold increase in our Nevada mineral resources in 3 years. And we've maintained a robust balance sheet. On safety, we have a clear safety strategy that pairs risk awareness with robust controls to manage the most critical workplace hazards. Our injury frequency rates remains well below industry peers. I've been around for long enough to know that we can never afford to be complacent and that we're only ever as good as our last injury-free shift. 2023, it is important to get the basics right. That starts with meeting our commitments. We delivered just under 2.6 million ounces of production. Within guidance, cash costs were also within our guidance range. All-in sustaining costs increased to $1,538 an ounce, that reflects the higher cash cost and a planned increase in sustaining CapEx. Full potential is working exactly as intended. We will show a detailed graph of $215 million savings realized in 2023, played a key role in helping to offset inflation and also to reduce the impact of production disruptions. Free cash flow was $109 million for the year. That's a big turnaround after 205 outflow in H1. We took the decision to pay a dividend upon our payout policy, declaring a dividend of $0.19 per share, following the strong [ H ] performance, the strong balance sheet, and our confidence in the future. The payout demonstrates confidence in the robustness of the business and our commitment to return to shareholders. We showed you a different view of portfolio at the interim results. The steering lens shows more clearly the geological realities of each site, their flexibility and performance, and potential for growth in both production and margins. This, in [ turn], determines their place in our capital allocation hierarchy. Tier 1 assets have scale, life, or at least the potential to increase life. They're at the lower end of the internal cost curve or have the potential to get there. Tier 2 has a steady performance, ore bodies are well understood, and operations are reasonably well optimized or on their way to be there. Some may be on the higher end of the cost curve, but they are all well-run, predictable, and steady cash contributors. The Tier 1 assets produced 1.6 million ounces of gold last year at a cash cost of $980 an ounce. Geita had a strong finish coming back strongly from the Q1 shutdown. In fact, Q4 ounces were 45% higher than Q1. Obuasi recovered very well. As you see, Q4 production was a third higher than Q3. I'll talk more about that shortly. Kibali made a solid contribution of 343,000 ounces and higher grades drove an increase at Tropicana. Turning to Tier 2, Cuiaba, as I mentioned, had a stellar recovery from a standing start. Generating $78 million free cash flow in H2, even at an accounted [ gold ] price, being this a concentrated operation of $1,790 an ounce. The mine is fully converted to a concentrated operation. Sunrise was the poster child for full potential, with cash costs and all-in sustaining well below the year-end. Siguiri has a steady second half as it recovered from the quarter 2 tank collapse. By the year-end, throughput rates have normalized and the team is now working to calibrate the plan to lift recoveries. [ CFSA ] production was lower year-on-year in line with its mine plan. Full asset potential. The full asset potential program has started to gain traction across the asset base. At Sunrise, we're seeing a step chain in underground ore tonnes, which are now consistently above 220,000 tonnes a month. The better haulage performance was underpinned by improvements in stope availability and fleet utilization. We'll look to sustain these levels in 2022. Tropicana's underground ore tonnes were up around 25% in H2. That initiative has been so successful that now we're working on solving ventilation constraints before we can achieve further improvements later this year. There's better availability and utilization of stope boogers and quicker reentry for crews, which has increased effective work time. In the plant, we made improvements to the high-pressure grinding roll circuit to support a throughput increase of 9.5 million tonnes. Iduapriem had an excellent year. We've driven improvements in drill and blast as well as processes to get better fragmentation, we've optimized the load and whole processes to get better on delivery to the plant. And we've sharpened our maintenance practices to achieve better overall equipment availability. At [indiscernible] underground tonnes from Naya Kanga, we're 29% ahead of our full asset potential target. We've delivered backfill directly to stoves via drill holes from surface rather than using trucks. This in turn has the bottlenecked our underground materials handling capacity and improved overall stope availability. We've also redirected from Star and Comet to Naya Kanga, bringing forward production into Q4. The full asset potential, what you see in the graph, is $250 million of an incremental EBITDA that was driven by improvements across 4 sites. Cost savings are adjusted for uncontrollable economic factors, including inflation, exchange rates, and royalties, as well as oil and other commodity movements. Benefits include both productivity improvements, measured as increment in gold production, and cost reductions compared to the flex or expected costs. Incremental gold production includes increasing plant throughput, metallurgical recovery, and mine tonnes. The dollars of benefit of $215 million is very significant, as you are well aware of, but this program has been, this year, absolutely vital in offsetting the massive both inflationary pressures, you've seen the road margins right across the center, and also providing additional resilience to the business to counter the production interruptions we had at Siguiri and Cuiaba. In sum, the reason why we have delivered cost guidance is we have similar sort of issues than our peers, but we have a program that helps counter those costs. Brazil update. Our Brazil operations have been a drag to earnings and cash flow. Last year, we took a decisive step forward to address this, and the results are clear in our numbers. The most important step was to restructure our leadership team. We reduced senior management roles by 25%, and introduced new experienced talent, at the same time with carefully to properly locate accountability and drive performance. We will not indefinitely cross subsidize underperforming and lost market assets, and we made that clear when we saw no return pathway to profitability for CDS. We took the hard decision to place it on care and maintenance in August. We've reviewed capital, made reductions, and ensured no stone is unturned in order to safely reduce costs. The cumulative benefit of these initiatives have greatly stemmed the cash lead and we're looking to a significantly better performance this year. We're prioritizing full asset potential, which will further improve production stability and increase efficiency. Let's take a step back to look at Obuasi. This remains one of the world's greatest gold ore bodies. It has grade well in excess of 8 grams per tonne over its life. It has size over 17 million ounces of resource and 7 million ounces of reserve and it has life of over 20 years. This is a [ Black Sheep ] mines this is in Bogota and it [ enjoys ] strong license to operate. We're also regaining momentum and the ramp up [ towards ] a long life of more than 400,000 ounces per year by 2026. You see in the slide, we are forecasting a range between 275,000 ounces and 320,000 ounces for '24 and between 325,000 ounces and 375,000 ounces for '25 and then plus 400,000 ounces in 2026. So let's look how we get there. The V30 reamer is doing exactly what we said. To recap, we're establishing our conventional stopes with a much wider reamer head, which is showing itself more capable in self-higher-grade rates. We're already getting better results after the blast. For the past 4 months, you can see our mining rates have stabilized and are now around 28% higher than for the first 9 months of the year. And by the way, February is going very well also. We expect another increase to around 110,000 tonnes to 120,000 tonnes from during this year. The underhand drift and fill trial will show how to safely mine the high-grade areas with poor ground conditions that we saw towards the end of last year. It's going very well. We've shown that we can develop through paste backfill in an old stope, which demonstrates paste competency. We've developed a top drive on 3,300 level and installed ground support. We've established the paste reticulation line, closed off the levels with bulkheads and completed the paste backfill. We are focused now on developing a parallel drive alongside the paste fill drive. This will allow us to expose and test the paste strength. After that, we'll develop our first drift on the paste. But it's very important, we continue to use the data from the trial to inform our cost models. And at this stage, we see a $50 per ounce improvement at steady state from underhand versus sub-level open stoping, with higher mining costs, more than offset by significantly better extraction efficiencies. Phase 3 is the refurbishment and return to service of the KMS shaft and associated infrastructure. This will provide direct access to the very high-grade Block 11 and other areas. It will double our current underground materials handling capacity to around 12,000 tonnes per day. If you look at the red block on this slide it shows a significant advantage we'll have when we can move waste, ore and other materials down the shaft with no congestion rather than transporting it via a 12 kilometers decline. The added flexibility will be a significant [ benefit ]. We estimate completion by the end of this year. The next key part of milestones [indiscernible] issuing the [ vents ], that will be soon, rail system and new pump stations, as well as ore passes between the upper mine and rail transport level. Good progress is being made to clear mud between 5,100 levels and shaft bottom. Let's move to Nevada. A picture is worth a thousand words. This is a picture of a gravity concentrate from a high-grade intercept at Merlin in Nevada. As we continue to progress with our drilling and metallurgical programs, we are finding strong indications of visible gold in multiple areas of the project. We have moved quickly to build a world-class new gold district in Southern Nevada. We'll dig into the details of our new 9.1 million ounce discovery at Merlin in just a second. But as you all put the pieces together, we have a number of new deposits emerging that now together contain more than 16 million ounces. Our focus for now is mainly on near-surface oxides with simple metallurgy, first of the smaller North Bullfrog projects in the northeast of our property, and then at the new Merlin discovery, which is a truly spectacular piece of geology in the heart of the world's best gold district. We believe costs will be extremely competitive and there are a number of potential development scenarios that we will test to match the project to our own capital return and needs. In short, the continued exploration success we're enjoying suggests the potential at this stage for this resource to support peak production of around 500,000 ounces over a multi-year period. And this is a multi-decade gold district. North Bullfrog is our starter project. It is the most advanced in our current Nevada pipeline, already in the permitting process, and we declared a first-time mineral reserve of 1 million ounces today. The feasibility study is complete and detailed engineering is underway. Aside from the new low-cost ounces, it will contribute to the group. North Bullfrog will provide us practical understanding of the permitting process, the opportunity to build a best-in-class project team, and current experience of building and operating a project in Nevada, all of which will be invaluable as we roll forward to the much bigger Merlin development. This project has a very attractive return profile. Our updated estimate of first production is around mid-2026, assuming all goes to plan. This is based on correspondence from Stantec, the BLM agency, which estimates the timeline of the record of decision to be around April 2025. We're engaging closely with the regulators to ensure we're able to support the process and their timeline in the best way possible. Our study, which has been approved by our board, pending receipt of all the necessary permits, assumes total growth of around 800,000 pounds, average recovery rate of 0.44, and an initial life of 13 years. We expect Tier 1 all-in sustaining cost of around $854 an ounce, When you amortize the project capital of around #370 million, you will get an all-in cost of about $1,300 an ounce. We assume a conservative gold price of $1,600 an ounce for the study, which would give us an IRR of 13%, and a payback of just over 7 years. However, at the spot, the return jumps to 30% and the payback shrinks to just 4 years. The expanded silicon project covers the silicon deposit roughly in the center of our land holding and Merlin [ immediately ] south. Today, we report a new 9.1 million ounce of inferred mineral resource at Merlin. As far as we can tell, this is the largest greenfield discovery, gold discovery in the U.S. in well over a decade. It's the fruit of a 2023 exploration program that beat all expectations. We drilled 144 holes, totaling more than 100 kilometers of drilling. There is still significant upside, particularly to the West. At first pass in our concept study, the economics look very strong. This year, we're focused on the PFS, which is already underway. This includes infill drilling to test the significance of high-grade mineralization within the inferred mineral resource study. This slide shows clearly why this is a potential game changer for us. In this section, you see the extent and size of the deposit along with some very exciting intercepts, which validates the extent and quality of the ore body. You will obviously look through this cross-section in your own time, but I'd like to just highlight. There's 103 meters of 7.3 grams a tonne, there's 185 meters of around 4 grams a tonne, and there's just over 236 meters of 3.4 grams a tonne. Mineralization remains open primarily to the west of the inferred mineral resource. This breaks down our -- we're moving to exploration performance. Last year, exclusive mineral resource addition totaled 10.3 million ounces from exploration and modeling, and of course, the introduction of Merlin. There were offsets, which resulted in a net gain, one gain to gain of year of 5 million ounces. Mineral reserve additions totaled 2.5 million ounces. 2 came from exploration, including the addition of the 1 million ounces at North Bullfrog. After depletion and other changes, we saw a net reduction year-on-year of 0.7 million ounces. This slide shows exactly why we're excited about the potential within our portfolio. We're in the midst of a program to increase investment in mineral resource development and brownfield exploration. This will aid reserve conversion, extend mine lives, improve operating flexibility, and supplement knowledge of our ore bodies. We're making strong progress. Over the past 4 years, we've added 14.4 million ounces of mineral reserve, which have come into our inventory at only $62 an ounce. When you compare that to multiples being paid even for resource ounces, you can see the enormous value that we've been able to generate organically. Now to Gillian on the financial review.

Thank you, Alberto. And hello, everyone. Let's first take a look at the macro environment and the impact on our business. The average gold price received last year was up around 8% compared to 2022 at around $1,930 an ounce. We hedged just under 5% of production with a 0 cost collar between $1,950 an ounce and $2,029 an ounce, which had a positive realized gain of $2 million. For this year, we've used the same structure to hedge 347,000 ounces with a floor of $1,993 an ounce and a ceiling of $2,132 an ounce. This provides downside protection for our assets in Brazil. You may recall we anticipated inflation of 6% in 2023. As we look back, that was a little optimistic as we ended the year at an average CPI of 8%. We're seeing inflation easing somewhat, although it does remain sticky in Ghana, Guinea, and Argentina. And we also believe the labor increases are structural, and this impacts 40% of our cash costs. We see continued weakness in the Aussie dollar, the Argentinian peso, and the Ghana cedi. Currency weakness will not help inflation going forward, and this is something we'll continue to watch. Oil continued to drift lower and our year-end position on the hedge was a realized loss of $7 million. We have no oil hedges in place for 2024. As Alberto mentioned, we saw strong sequential quarterly performances from a number of our key assets in 2023. As you can see in aggregate, 15% production growth, half-on-half, with all regions delivering stellar performance in the last quarter, particularly bolstered by Iduapriem, Geita, Tropicana and Cuiaba. The stronger half 2 production performance had a commensurate impact on our cost base. Total cash costs were 9% better half-on-half at $1,060 an ounce. Our cash costs for the full year were $1,108 an ounce, up 11% year-on-year, with lower production, higher operating costs, fueled by the sustained inflationary pressures, planned higher waste stripping at Tropicana, and one-off costs related to Brazil and the tank failure at Siguiri. When we flex for macro factors which we don't control, the increase almost halved to 6%, and that includes the big disruptions we saw at Cuiaba and Siguiri. We would say we're really quite pleased with this performance, and it really demonstrates the value delivered from our full asset potential program. On AISC, we did see an increase year-on-year as a consequence of investments made in 3 key areas. ORD and waste stripping as we accessed new areas in Geita, Iduapriem and Tropicana. Mineral resource development in our underground mines, supporting greater mine flexibility and stability. And of course, infrastructure development and tailings facilities, particularly at our Brazil operations. We also increased investment in exploration and evaluation to comfortably replenish mineral reserves, as well as additional investment required in environmental rehab. Moving to cash flow or free cash flow, the strong cash flow performance despite the higher CapEx in the second half, by a specific focus on optimizing working capital, higher sales volumes, improved cash costs and higher dividends from Kibali. There is a greater focus on working capital management and cash conversion, which we highlighted as a strategic priority last year. As expected, most of our assets saw stronger operating improvements in the second half, with tailwinds from the higher price. Importantly, as Alberto mentioned, decisive action taken in Brazil played a key role in managing cash outflows. With this strong free cash flow performance in the second half, today we announced an interim dividend of $0.19 per share, incremental to the first half of $0.04 per share, bringing our 2023 dividend to $0.23 per share. Our focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet and decreasing debt levels remains intact. Long-term balance sheet improvements achieved through disciplined capital allocation and the self-funding of our redomicile Obuasi expansion program, Corvus and Coeur Sterling acquisitions, and our major U.S. exploration program. Moving on to guidance for 2024, gold production for the portfolio is expected to be between 2.59 million ounces to 2.79 million ounces. At the midpoint, we expect production growth of about 4% relative to 2023. This is driven mainly by a step up at Obuasi and Siguiri, where we expect year-on-year recovery from the CIL tank failures. Total cash costs for the group are expected to range from $1,075 an ounce to $1,175 an ounce, which at the midpoint is a reduction in real terms given where current inflation sits. We are able to do that given the traction we are seeing inside of our business and specifically our full asset potential program. Sustaining CapEx is expected to grow slightly, mainly because of increased investment in mineral reserve development. Year-on-year AISC is also little changed despite the inflationary pressure. The increase in growth CapEx is due to additional investment in Nevada. For 2025 guidance, gold production is anticipated to grow 2% year-on-year, driven primarily by the expected continued ramp up at Obuasi and modest gains across multiple mines. Total cash costs are expected to decrease as continued full asset potential maturity and production efficiencies are anticipated to drive unit costs lower. The expected increase in non-sustaining capital expenditure reflects the anticipated incremental investment in the construction of North Bullfrog. It does not, however, include capital for the construction of the project. I will now hand back over to Alberto to complete.

Thank you, Gillian. This is another year for delivery. Safety is our priority. We have 2 large climate projects to complete this year, which will significantly reduce our emissions. We're focused on driving operating improvements and delivering more consistent, predictable results. The full asset potential program is working as intended. Our Tier 1 assets are performing well with improvements in the pipeline. We're focused on further optimizing our Tier 2 mines and determining the best [ path ] forward for our remaining assets. There's a good pathway for Obuasi's ramp up with clear milestones against which we can judge our success. Our technical team is progressing our Nevada opportunity to surface the enormous value we have discovered. Our world-class exploration team continues to add value to the drill bridge across our properties. So why Anglo? Gold. We're a U.S. company and 1 of 2 primarily listed senior gold producers in the New York Stock Exchange. We have one of the industry's largest resource space, supported by high reserve grades. Our safety performance is among the best in the industry, in the mining industry, and we have a strong climate record. We have true partnerships in our host communities where we deliver tangible benefits. We have a highly motivated leadership team with world-class technical expertise and experience across developed and developing jurisdictions. We have a diverse portfolio and are rapidly closing the margin gap with peers with lower cost balances in the pipeline. Our track record on competitively replenishing our mineral inventory is among the best in the industry. Our balance sheet is robust with capacity to fund our capital needs, shareholder returns and growth. We've disciplined in allocating capital with a clear dividend policy and leverage targets. I'll finish where I started, closing the value gap. An important part of the strategy to achieve that aim is to regain cost competitiveness. When we started this journey in 2021, our cost inflation was right at the top end of the peer group. As our various interventions have gained traction, we moved first to the midpoint and then to the lower end of the range. You can see our guidance for 2024 and 2025, the costs will be within $100 of the all-in sustaining costs of the guidance of the main sort of competitors. I just want to highlight that that will be about a third of the gap that existed 3 years ago. But we are far from finished. I know we're not been perfect, and I know there's more work needed to ultimately to bend our own cost curve forward. We face challenges and overcome many of them. We've learned lessons that we will apply. We're stronger, more competitive, and better placed than we were this time last year. We are proud of our team. We are proud of our people. And what we have accomplished this year, we eagerly look forward to what is yet to come. Thank you.

Thanks, Alberto. Chris?

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Raj Ray of BMO Capital Markets.

My first question, Alberto, is on the full asset potential. I know you're going into the implementation phase at various operations. Can you give us some visibility as to what remains to be done? And are you happy with the way things have gone across the various assets? Second is on the cost impact. The cost is flat year-to-year. You did say that. But against your initial guidance at the beginning of 2023, $1,395 to $1,455, which is a substantial increase. So if you can comment on that. And then lastly, with respect to Nevada, can you talk to what do you see as the potential formatting timeline with respect to North Bullfrog? And when you expect to get into construction? And secondly, when can we expect some visibility on the expanded silicon economics?

Thank you. Okay. Let me -- lots of questions, but good ones, thank you. Full assets potential. Look, we track, you saw 2 slides, and one of them are the hard metrics, and that is really what we track. Are we structurally and permanently improving the tonnes we're moving, or the recovery we're having, or the metallurgical recovery, or whatever hard metric. And that is what is tracked with the operators, with the CTO, with the COO, and all their teams. Now, that slide you saw on finance was actually done by the finance team. And they just made a reconciliation and said, okay, what can we see from this full asset potential in the bottom line. And this is an exposed fact. And you can see that they can find $200 million clearly of improvements, of increasing the EBITDA because of what we have done in full asset potential for 2023. So I thought we would share this for the market. What is yet to come? I can't put out, we haven't put out targets, but we will continue. We think that there is still yet a lot to improve. So I haven't done it in the past and I won't do it now. But I believe that with a little bit of not bad luck, again, we did have very significant events, both in Siguiri and in Cuiaba. And so if we hadn't had full asset potential, we would have been in real trouble. I hope that this year we don't have, maybe we have only one, I don't know. In mining, you already have something. And then probably we can see that more clearly, not offsetting, but in the bottom line. But we are still -- we believe there's still a lot of value to be uncovered by full asset potential. Let me put it that way. In terms of cost, as we said, we met the guidance in cash cost, and we're quite happy about that, $1,108. You're right, in all-in sustaining, we're about 6% higher. It is 2 areas that we wouldn't expect. Obuasi and tailings dams in Brazil really sucked up that additional 6%. The good thing is, if you see, we finish in $1,538, our guidance for 2024 is $1,521, which is slightly lower in nominal terms, but significantly lower in real terms. And then we have another guidance of $1,525 for 2025. So we're stabilizing the all-in sustaining costs. If you look at the guidance, and I've looked at briefly of guidance about 3 or 4 of our peers they're all, they're all-in sustaining is going up. So I think we're happy that we're able to contain this for '24 and '25. If we look into Nevada, we're expecting -- we had said probably last year, we were expecting production at the end of 2025. Right now, we moved to first quarter of 2026. We -- the difference is probably the let's say, the good news is that we got very clear feedback from the Bureau of Land Management and the organizations that are -- which are going to give the license. So we have even more sort of understanding of when they will give us the permission and then how long it takes. And so I think that now we're sort of comfortable that saying right now that production would be in, let's say, 2026, which is still quite good, we believe. And then expanded silicon, we told you about 6 months ago, look, we have an objective. We want to finish the concept study for silicon at the end of the year, and we want to finish the feasibility study. We did both. Now, we are entering the phase of the prefeasibility study that may take between 18 months and 24 months. Things can change significantly. We don't know right now, and nobody knows how to tackle in an optimized way this magnificent ore body. Is it going to be a huge pit? Is it going to be a smaller pit? Is it going to be underground? We just don't know. And so the way we end up optimizing the project will determine a lot of things that we don't know right now. I can tell you right now is we right now have a target of 18 months. We will be telling you how things are progressing. And then when we finish the prefeasibility study, as we are doing right now, we will be able to tell you much more about silicon. It is, however, you can see already, it is, as we said, like one of the probably is the best discovery in more than a decade in the U.S., and it's a massive, massive ore body. So we're very excited.

Very clear. One last follow-up question, if I may, on Obuasi. It's good to see that last 4 months the tonnage has stabilized, the grades have picked up. In 2024, how comfortable are you with your development rates, and how much flexibility you have in the operations? The reason I ask is, is there any risk you see with respect to volatility similar to we saw in Q3 to Obuasi?

So look, the last 4 months and now 5 months, because we're in the third week of February, we're averaging these 90,000 tonnes, which would give you about a 250,000 ounces of gold for the year. And we've said that we believe we can ramp up a bit from about 95,000 tonnes to 110,000 tonnes. That would then put us into the 270,000 ounces to 300,000 ounces. So at this stage, everything is looking good, and we stand by our guidance. Honestly, right now, we are already at the lower end of that guidance. So if we can improve a bit more, which we believe we can, then we should get into the midpoint of that guidance. The important thing, more than the number, if it's 270,000 ounces or 260,000 ounces, is the KMS shaft is a huge thing, and it will give us so much more flexibility. The other important thing that I want to underscore is the trial on the underhand cut and fill has worked beautifully. So and it has -- we have proven that it will reduce the cost per ounce. And so then we have this V wide width reamer [ working ] very well. And we also have an underhand that is working well, reducing significantly dilution. And so, I think we have good instruments. Now, as we move forward to give us comfort on the guidance that we put forward today on that range for '24 with the KMS shaft on the increase now for between 325,000 ounces and 325,000 ounces for '25. And then eventually when by then, by '26, we will be very comfortable with both methods. And hence, we have the confidence of about 400,000 ounces in '26 and beyond.

You want to? No? Perfect. Thanks, Raj.

The next question is from Josh Wolfson of RBC.

So I just wanted to recap a comment that I think Gillian had made earlier on the capital front. What was the item that was not included in the guidance? Was that North Bullfrog?

For 2025, yes. The capital for Nevada.

Okay. Yes. So the project capital was something like $400 million to $450 million. What would be that spending directed towards?

So there's studies in there for Nevada and also our kind of usual growth program as well. So sort of expansion of tailings facility and some other growth projects that we have in some of our assets, sort of like the normal envelope of growth capital that we spend annually.

Okay. So assuming the project were to be advanced in, let's say, mid '25, first half of '25, assuming the permits come in, what sort of -- what balance of the CapEx would be added to that figure in 2025?

It's for now, based on where we are with the study, we don't -- the level of confidence in the study, we haven't -- we don't want to apply on what that range would be because the team are still, of course, assessing a number of options in the region.

But it's not the construction phase. It's prefeasibility study. So it's not going to be something that would be very, very material would be. But we just don't know. We'll be telling you where the prefeasibility ends.

Okay. We'll stay tuned for those numbers.

It could be 30. It could be 50. It could be 60. It's not 100, I think. So that's sort of what I'm trying to say.

Okay. Go ahead, Josh. Anything more? Chris?

The next question is from Leroy Mnguni of HSBC.

It's quite pleasing to see that the underhand cuts and fill at Obuasi is progressing really well. I was just wondering, if you have a sense yet of how the costs of that method compared to the sort of previous long-haul open-stoping mining method? And if you could also, please provide some guidance on what you expect Obuasi all-in sustaining costs to be when it reaches steady-state production? And then the decline in all-in sustaining costs into 2025 compared to 2024 is also quite pleasing. I was just wondering, I know you mentioned that it's asset optimization and improved efficiencies. I was just curious as to, is that just generally across the group? Or are there specific assets within the group that are driving those improvements?

Roy, you broke up a little in that last question. Could you just repeat for us, please?

Yes, sure. I was saying that the guidance, all-in sustaining cost guidance for 2025, the fact that it's declining is quite impressive. I know you said it's asset optimization and improved efficiencies. I was just wondering, is that just broadly across the group? Or are there specific assets that are driving those improved efficiencies? And then maybe if I could just add, what are you currently seeing as underlying mining inflation across the group?

That's clear. Thank you. So first question, underhand, cut and fill. So look, in the trial that we already did and completed, what we found is that the cost per ounce was around $800. So $750, I'm sorry. And the equivalent cost with the existing method would be $800. And the reason for that is because in the underhand cut and fill, as Richard explained very well last time, there's no dilution and there's no pillars. So you take all the gold. So when you are in high-grade areas, this method just reduces the cost per ounce of extraction. So that's what is quite exciting, that this now this number of $50 an ounce, lower cost per ounce, is now a proven one in this trial that we have been doing for the past weeks. Regarding all-in sustaining costs for Obuasi, it would be in the $950, $980 an ounce for Obuasi. So Tier 1 in costs. Full asset potential, I think that there's 2 things why also, the all-in sustaining costs for '25. In the numbers that we have for '23, there's still a lot of tailings dams from Brazil. And if you look here at the numbers of Brazil and this difference between all-in sustaining costs and cash costs, it's the highest in the group. It's about $700. So we expect that that number should start coming down. And so that's part of the reason. But of course, we are counting on full asset potential. I would not highlight any particular one. This is an initiative that is done across all the group and all assets. So we now have a detailed budget, let's say, for '25. And so this is -- I want to say this clearly, when we put up these numbers, we -- there's a lot of thought through them, and we aim to achieve them. If I may say so, we put in February of 2023, in March, the numbers for '24. If you go back to then, you will see that our current guidance for '24 is exactly in the range of what we said 1 year ago. And so I go back for '25, we were putting in a lot of attention and we believe that this is achievable. So that's that third question. And then mining inflation, it's still that 5%. Unbelievable, but that is still pervasive. We've seen commodities go down slightly, oil goes down, and we are trying to do everything, renegotiating with our procurement people and the other ones, and reagents, and then ammonia, ammonia nitrate explosive, that should come down. But wage inflation, I would say it's 5% on average across the group. And that's still 50% and very pervasive.

Thanks, Leroy. Any follow-up?

No. I'm covered. Understood.

Then the next question is from Adrian Hammond of SBG Securities.

Alberto, appreciate the transparency increase with the 2025 outlook on costs included. And as you know, transparency drives ratings. So well done on that. I would just like to know if you intend on increasing that further with the 3-year outlook in the future, and perhaps on a mine-by-mine basis? That's the first question. Secondly, the prospectivity around Nevada looks obviously very attractive. I was wondering whether you've had expressions of interest for JVs, and would you entertain that? That's the second question. Also, a bit more color, if you may, I'm not seeing much detail on the asset potential program for within the business itself. Ex-Nevada, in terms of reserve replenishment, you declined 0.7 million ounces year-on-year. I wonder if that worries you? And if there's any sort of color you can give us on the progress of the asset potential program within the rest of the business? And then just a comment for Gillian. I noticed that the cash conversion has improved tremendously with the progress you've made on that lock-up in DRC Tanzania and the DC is in Argentina. So just congratulations on that. It's a lot more than your predecessors ever did in such a short time.

Thanks very much.

What is the third question?

Adrian, I think the third question, could you just repeat the one on full asset potential and reserves? If you -- we kind of lost you halfway there. Sorry.

Sorry, yes. Replenishment is a concern. You were down 0.7 million ounces year-on-year, so perhaps you can recognize that as a risk.

Okay. Well, thank you. Look, we've heard you and believe me, we are working towards increasing. We know we need to increase probably to a 3-year eventually. But we will only do it when we're comfortable that we are not putting out like sort of globes. And with all due respect, I've seen others that said, I'm going to go down by $100. And yes, you just don't know how to. So we will do it. I can't promise you when, but we will do. We are working a lot in mine planning right now across the whole company. And when we have a better understanding of all of that, of the long-term, we will. So Gillian has it on her to-do list, but it's really not Gillian. We just need to have the operators a better understanding. But we've heard you, and we're working on it. And we'll come one moment when we will be providing that. And mine-by-mine also. Prospectivity, JVs, it's actually not in the to-do list right now. There are some other companies that have assets in the region, and we are not against probably creating a bigger one or something like that, but it's nothing that is actively in discussions right now. It is such a massive resource. As you see that in itself, it's just going to take a lot of effort getting to that, 0.5 million ounces. Look, the replenishment, if you look at our track record of 25% per year on 6 years, sometimes it's a bit higher, sometimes it's a bit lower. I really am not concerned about that. We actually, if you look at resource, actually, we did increase by 5% resource. More importantly, you see where Geita is, I think it's at 7 years. All the big ones are between 7 and 10 years in Tier 1s. So I know we went down by 0.7 million ounces, but it's a lumpy thing. We have very interesting targets for this year. I am pretty comfortable that if you take a 3-year average, we're basically replenishing our -- I'm pretty sure we will be replenishing our depletion.

Sure. And that 0.5 million ounces, can you give a rough guide as to when you think you could get there from Nevada?

That goes for the [ preview ]. We know that the resource sustains something like that. But look, it's the prefeasibility study, I'll take 18 months. And we will be informing you when we have more right now. But at this stage, I will just -- it will be very speculative. What we do know from the concept level study is that, yes, that it's going to be very profitable, that it is massive, that it is multi-decade, and it will -- we also know that it would be all-in sustaining in the high 900s, let's say at a high end. But we believe we can optimize that.

Thanks Adrian.

So we have no further questions in the queue. Would you like to make some closing remarks?

Okay. Well, look, thank you again very much for your time, for your questions, as always. I always think when I'm reading the presentation, it's a bit too long, and I hope I wouldn't bore you too much. But we are proud of what we have done. We are proud of that in what was a difficult year that started with things beyond our control, with a concentrated collapse and with a change in the regulatory environment in Brazil. We were able to overcome. Probably I would add, you can see, and we have heard you and all the analysts, we are much more focused also, and our new CFO, much more, not so new, but focused on cash conversion. Working capital, you can see, it's much better in the second half. And that will be a continuum. So it's not only cash costs, all-in sustaining, but we're also very, very heavily focused on free cash flow and working capital, and it's showing. So look, things are coming into play, into terms, and how I finished, again, my last introductory comments. We have a great team at all levels. We have very committed people, and we're doing what we said we're going to do. And that's the most important thing. In the end, what we have is our credibility. And you guys are the ones that judge us. Are we delivering on what we said we were going to do? I believe in the last 2 years we have done so. But again, many thanks for your questions and for your attendance.

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's event. And you may now disconnect your lines.