Antofagasta plc (ANTO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. Hello. Good morning to everyone, and welcome to our call where we will share with you the decision to advance with the Centinela Second Concentrator. So thank you for joining this session. My name is Ivan Arriagada, and I'm the CEO of Antofagasta, and I'm joined here by Mauricio Ortiz, our CFO. So we will start with a brief presentation, which is also available now on our website. And then this will be followed up by a Q&A session. We can move to the next slide. Thank you. Well, here, we have our traditional cautionary statement, which I invite you to review as usual as it includes relevant information. So as announced this morning, I'm pleased to say that after an extensive review, the construction of the second Centinela concentrator has been approved. This is a Brownfield expansion of one of our key districts or mines. The following slides aim to provide a description of the key attributes of this project and how an expansion at Centinela will create and deliver significant stakeholder value. Here, we have a summary of the Second Concentrator project key attributes. Centinela is an asset in our portfolio that has significant potential. We have around 2 billion tonnes of oil reserves, and we believe that doubling the concentrator capacity will help Centinela deliver or develop into a Tier 1 mining district through becoming a global copper mine in terms of scale and moving towards the first quartile on the global cost curve. The capital cost of expanding Centinela concentrator capacity plus additional infrastructure, which involves, for example, an expansion to the water system, additional investments associated to the port power supply, another associated infrastructure is estimated to be $4.4 billion, which is a figure in line with other projects and similar capital intensity basis as other projects of this type. Through expanding Centinela, we're delivering on our profitable growth strategy of our business, whilst maintaining our copper-focused business model. At consensus prices, this project is expected to deliver substantial economic value as well as strategic value in building a bigger production base. Finally, it is important to note Centinela's environmental and social footprint and how this mine is the embodiment of our purpose. Centinela already operates with 100% raw seawater, 100% renewable energy, and we have 20-plus years of working positively with the local communities surrounding our site. These factors help provide confidence in Centinela's future given it is a long-term asset with great further potential. So as I say here in the slide, you can see those key attributes of the projects that I've just -- I just mentioned. On this next slide, we can see in more detail the configuration of the project. In the map to the left, we can see an overview of the district which comprises of multiple mining operations, supplying an existing concentrator plant and an oxide processing SXEW operation today. The plan to double concentrator capacity at Centinela will help to unlock value from the sulfide ore bodies we have across this amazing district. As of today, we have an ore reserve of 2 billion tonnes, and we see significant potential in Centinela's future in our portfolio. Currently, we mine ore from Esperanza and Esperanza Sur pit, an oxides ore from El Tesoro and Encuentro. The latter will soon transition to sulfide ore and will supplement ore from Esperanza Sur for the new concentrator plant. At Centinela, we have 20-plus years of experience in operating, starting with our oxide operations in 2001 and building a district over time, which you can see in this map. This experience will help us significantly in both the construction and operation phase of the project helping to lower the execution risk because we're already operating in the site and have been for a long time. Moving now on to infrastructure. Here, we can see Centinela's location in the north of Chile. A key strength of the Second Concentrator Project is its Brownfield nature, which will help to derisk its construction and operation. What does this mean? We have infrastructure in place, water, power and port facilities and we're looking to expand this as part of the project announced today. We have significant experience in operating at Centinela. And importantly, we also have many years of building strong relationships with our workforce and with our local communities. Centinela operates on 100% raw seawater, as I've mentioned before. And we have infrastructure in place at the port -- and as part of the capital cost for the Second Concentrator, we're looking to expanding this infrastructure to be able to accommodate our new capacity. Here we can see the scale of the opportunity at Centinela. In the first 10 years of full production, we will grow by 144,000 tonnes of copper plus additional byproducts, and that's a very important feature of this ore body. And therefore, on a copper equivalent basis, we expect that we will have an increase of production equivalent to 170,000 tonnes of copper equivalent. So with this growth, Centinela will become one of the key global copper mines in the world. In addition, Centinela has a significant, as I've mentioned, gold stream, and therefore, we will become one of Chile's largest gold producers once we have the Second Concentrator operating. And through this increased emphasis in byproducts, we will see cost benefits as we can see in the next slide. So a key aspect of investing in Centinela expansion is the transition towards being a first quartile operation. The first key factor lowering cost is the deployment of substantial modern technology as part of the expansion, including our autonomous fleet in our mining operations and also HPGR in the new plant, which we will see greater productivity and energy efficiency consumption from. Another key aspect of the plant expansion is scale. Through greater scale and efficiencies, we benefit from better economics. Currently, production is weighted 70-30 towards concentrates and the byproducts that are recovered as part of this process. But the expansion will shift concentrates towards 90% of total output, bringing greater exposure to byproduct credits, and therefore, cheaper production. And with that, I shall now hand over to Mauricio, who will take us through some of the financial aspects of the Second Concentrator. Mauricio, over to you.

Thanks, Ivan. Good morning. As mentioned, we are leveraging this expansion on a consolidated mine industry, which allows us to focus our investment, mainly in mining and processing companies of the project, representing close to 60% of the total CapEx. In comparison with the previous CapEx estimate, which was published more than a year ago, there are 4 main building blocks to today's update estimate: the first, an additional contingency provision. An updated input and equipment prices due to escalation and inflation. And updated to labor regulation that is expected to impact contraction works. And finally, a stronger Chilean peso. Reflecting these 4 factors and the advanced detailed engineering stage, the updated conservative CapEx estimate is $4.4 billion. The Centinela Second Concentrator Project is organized in several EPC packages, including mining and associated material handling system, the Second Concentrator, the expansion of the seawater and the expansion of other ancillary facilities such as power and tailings. Through organizing the project into these packages, we can allocate each of them to highly qualified EPC contractors, reducing execution risk. Furthermore, each package will be supervised by Antofagasta in-house project management team with experience in similar projects in Chile and overseas. To optimize the value of a long-life mining project like Centinela, a long-term financing is the best choice. The Centinela Second Concentrator Project will unlock significant value in the Centinela District, boosting and bringing forward copper production with a capital-efficient Brownfield brand expansion. The main element of this -- of the funding package is a 12-year conventional project financing at the Centinela level using the existing operation balance sheet, which generated $1.2 billion of EBITDA in 2022. One of the key features of this structure is a 4.5-year grace period. To complete the funding package, shareholder contribution based on each shareholder share in Centinela will represent about 40% of the total project cost. We expect financial close within the first quarter of 2024, triggering full construction thereafter. Regarding the water infrastructure, documentation for the plant outsourcing has been substantially completed. We expect closure to be made alongside the execution of definitive project finance document during Q1 2024. If it's go ahead as planned, an estimated amount of $600 million will be received for the divestment of the existing water infrastructure and project costs will be reduced by approximately $400 million. Of course, the outsourcing will only proceed if it improves the net present value of the project. Finally, I would like to reiterate our strong commitment to our capital allocation framework and its disciplined application in all our financial decisions. As always, value optimization and climate resilience remain key factors in our decision-making process and in the project design and evaluation. To further unlock the value of our sulfide reserves, low energy grinding equipment and autonomous trucks are a clear example of this, allowing Centinela to move towards the first quartile of costs, enhancing its already strong operating cash flow. The project has been assessed across a broad range of macroeconomic scenarios. This allows Antofagasta to maintain its characteristics and strong financial position through the project's execution. Over the years, has consistent in -- Antofagasta has consistently demonstrated its disciplined approach to growth through a range of projects. Throughout this growth, we have delivered attractive returns to shareholders, a strong balance sheet and a commitment to our dividend policy. We will remain focused on these 3 priorities: growth, shareholder's return and a strong balance sheet, understanding that our financial robustness is a key characteristic that allows Antofagasta to create long-term value for our shareholders through the cycle. And with that, I'll hand back to Ivan. Ivan?

Thank you, Mauricio. So those that know us well, will know our purpose, which is developing mining for a better future. We believe in the responsible production of copper generating value for all our stakeholders. Centinela is a project that has been developed and expanded over the past 20 years with this purpose in mind. We operate, as we've mentioned before, on 100% renewable energy and 100% raw seawater, greatly reducing our environmental footprint. We are proud of our track record in safety within Centinela with no fatalities or serious incidents since 2014, low injury frequency rate and strong performance in leading indicators and safety. And all of this was achieved with completing a major project for the group at Los Pelambres with many external contractors operating at 2 sites. So a key element to our operation is that we aim to operate closely with local communities. As indicated here, 60% of our employees at Centinela are from either the Antofagasta or other mining regions, which are the local regions where we operate. And today's announcements will further bolster our investment, create jobs and working with local businesses. Moving now to growth. We can see how Centinela fits in our strategy. Many will recognize the chart to the left. We recently completed the Phase 1 expansion at Los Pelambres earlier this year. And here, we can see how Centinela's Second Concentrator will push us closer to our aspirational target of 900,000 profitable tonnes of copper production per year. Our strategy remains focused on copper. We see significant value in the copper market, which is a metal critical for the energy transition and the world will require material volume growth in the copper market if global climate change ambitions are to be achieved. Our core focus is the Americas, which is a highly prospective region for copper exploration. We have a strong track record of developing assets and operations in Chile, and we will continue to leverage this experience well into the future. Finally, the Second Concentrator will continue our track record of generating shareholder value. This is the latest project in our pipeline with projects spanning more than 30 years of copper production and exploration operating in a safe and sustainable manner. So with that, I'd like to turn back now to the key messages and project attributes, which I would like to leave you when looking at this project. We think we are developing a Tier 1 mining district in Chile. This is underpinned by our strategy of profitable growth, focused on material growth in production, maintaining or improving our margins by lowering our costs and therefore, adding value with a very strict stakeholder value focus. So as you can see here, we -- this is a project that has a mine life based on 2 billion tonnes of ore, which will span for 36 years, which will deliver production for the first 10 years of around 170,000 tonnes of copper equivalent, which includes significant byproducts from gold and moly and making this one of the biggest operations globally. It will position Centinela in the first quartile of the cost curve, therefore, adding efficiency and competitiveness. And as we've mentioned in the past, Centinela is already running in quite a virtuous footprint with respect to the supply of water and energy, and that will continue in this project as this expansion does contemplate that we continue to supply Centinela with renewable energy and also with seawater for its expanded requirements. So with that, and on that note, I think we will turn now to the audience for questions and answers. So I will pass on then to the operator for these purposes. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ioannis Masvoulas at Morgan Stanley.

Hello, can you hear me?

Yes, we can.

Perfect. Perfect. Hello, and thank you very much for the presentation. Three questions from my side, if I may. The first one, around production. In the past, you talked about reading 900,000 tonnes of copper once Centinela Second Concentrator is ramped up. Now you talk about progress towards this long-term ambition. So what level of production shall we assume by the end of the decade around -- across the entire Centinela District, and where would that take your group copper production, please?

Yes. No, I think we've been consistently Ioannis, with respect to indicating that we have an aspiration of moving to 900,000 tonnes provided that the projects which we have in the pipeline are sanctioned in the sort of possible or expected timings. And therefore, this involves both this project, which is obviously a key contributor to that end, but also advancing some of our other expansion projects, namely at Pelambres and also in our other smaller assets, especially Zaldivar. So we have always considered that, that is the combination of the expansion possibilities contained in the whole portfolio. But this is an important step in that direction. So as mentioned, we would expect that this project would deliver 144,000 tonnes of copper that excludes the byproducts and therefore, move about [indiscernible] in full capacity to a number -- in terms of copper production, which is around between 300,000 and 350,000 tonnes.

That -- sorry, that 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of the entire district including cathodes?

Right. Correct.

Perfect. Thank you for that. And second question, can you give us an indication on recurring mine development and sustaining CapEx related to the expansion as I believe the strip ratio is relatively high. And here, I'm excluding the $1 billion related to Encuentro is more post towards the recurring sustaining CapEx for this asset.

The sustaining CapEx?

Yes, please.

Yes. I think we had talked about that we would expect sustaining CapEx for the period. I think we said -- I'm just recalling here from the midyear announcement for the period '27, I think it's '26 to '27. We sort of indicated that mine development and sustaining CapEx would be around $900 million. So that would be the figure. You've got that number.

Okay. Okay. Thank you. And a very last one from my side. Just on the recent deal or equities take in Buenaventura, can you talk about the shape of collaboration that this investment could take? Something you flagged at your press release on Friday. Would you look at asset level stakes in growth projects? Or are you looking to remain a strategic shareholder at the equity level? Any comments here would be finely appreciated.

Yes. Look, I think the -- I mean, the purpose of this call, obviously, is to focus on [ B and C ], but just a few words on Buenaventura. I mean, I think this is an attractive, we think, opportunistic play or investment. We consider at the time that we made our investment evaluation to be attractive. And we consider that there are potential development options, especially in copper in the mining portfolio that Buenaventura holds, both in terms of possible existing and also assets which are or have been highlighted for development. So I think with the stake that we have acquired, we look forward to working with Buenaventura. And I think we are focused at this moment to essentially gain further understanding on those opportunities, both in terms of the existing operations and of what might be there for the future. Our focus is to come contribute with our capabilities and be able to unlock value for all stakeholders. So we are at early stages of engaging Buenaventura to be able, as I said, to fully understand the potential in the portfolio. So that's our plan and where we are today.

Our next question comes from Alexander Pearce at BMO.

Great. Good morning all. So Ivan, my question is that if you don't complete the water infrastructure sale, how would this impact the financing plans? Does it have any impact on timing or critical path? And finally, how much of a difference to cash cost does it make with and without the sale?

Yes. So the -- we've always looked at the sale of the water infrastructure as an attractive option. And as we've expressed before, we would only undertake and enter into that transaction, if you know, it's value accretive. And we, therefore, have planned and have developed both our financing and project execution strategy with that flexibility. Therefore, if we do not enter into this transaction, we would not expect to have any impact on our schedule of construction. And there are certain -- or several measures that we've been working on that ensure that, that happens. One of them is that we have a common EPC contractor for both the option of doing the water system ourselves or being done by a third party. So no impact on the schedule if we decide not to take this optionality. And from a funding point of view, the same is true. I mean we are looking at the project financing structure in a way that it does essentially provide for the financial requirements on a full investment case being undertaken by us. Obviously, if we do the transaction that will give us extra flexibility, but the financing plan that we have does provide the flexibility for both alternatives. So in essence, we do not expect in exercising or not this option that we would have an impact neither on the schedule of construction nor on the financing. Now in terms of its cost impact, we -- our estimate is that this is some -- is a figure which would probably be around $0.03 or $0.04 per pound. And Mauricio, you may be able to expand or be more specific on this.

Thank you. Well, as Ivan said, maybe let me wrap up the key concept here. Centinela Second Concentrator Project and the district overall will have a very strong position in the first quartile of the net cash curve -- net cash cost curve. So we don't see a material impact on the net cash cost curve, implementing the water deal, of course, as Ivan mentioned. We need to complete the last part of the process, and we are going to move forward in this only if it's value accretive for Centinela Second Concentrator Project. But wrapping up, we don't see a material impact in the net cash cost curve and the range is the one that Ivan just mentioned previously.

Yes. Now having said that, I mean, obviously, we have been working on this because we think this -- thus, if it is value accretive, both generate some value but also provide some extra flexibility and release some capital. So we think it's from that point of view, an attractive alternative, but we need do, as I say, close this and land on the sort of final terms before we make this decision. But we've made good progress and I think we're excited as this being an interesting alternative to consider as we sort of close the funding for the project.

Our next question comes from Daniel Major at UBS.

Great. And rather than getting the project over the line, it's been a long time coming. Yes, first question. Yes, the increase in the CapEx, I guess, your relative to previous estimate inflation, FX, et cetera. You mentioned additional contingency. What's the level of contingency within the budget you have at this point?

Yes. Yes. Look, I think, as we've mentioned, this updated estimate does include the elements that we've described, escalation, a stronger exchange rate and contingency. I would like to say a couple of things before I answer directly the question that you've made. One is that I think we feel quite comfortable with this figure on the grounds that we have quite some advanced engineering in this project, which is another very significant element. So we've got over 60% of detailed engineering for the project completed, which is quite a strength as you go into execution. And also for the key contracts -- because we've got them in place, basically, we're pricing them at the contractual terms that have been agreed. So we've got a very, I would say, strong estimate from that point of view. Now we have a contingency, which in total, it's a number close to between 15% and 20% of the number. And that has been included in that way considering the time spend that's required for construction. So even though our estimate is reliable from the point of view of being it based on advanced engineering contracted prices for many of its components, we have a long construction period of close to 3 years. And therefore, the contingency reflects that extended period of construction, but it's between 15% and 20%.

Yes, very clear. And then just next question on the water sale. What was -- I mean what is the driver of it not being executed at the same time as announcing the project? Is that to do still assessing the economics? Or is it finalizing the finance terms? And what -- I mean, as you see it now, what sort of probability weighting would you put on -- you going ahead with the auction?

Yes. Look, I think the -- we expect to close this in line with what alongside the financing of the project. And therefore, it's timing has more to do in the way that we look at this with the sort of execution timing of closing the full funding than with anything more fundamental. Now -- but we do, however, and this is the important thing keep the optionalities. As I've mentioned before, we have built in the execution plan and the financing plan with both options in mind. But as I've indicated, we think it's attractive. We've talked about this for a long time. It's a way of downloading some of the investment that we make and recycling the capital. And therefore, we remain of the view that this is an attractive alternative and therefore, meeting our requirements, something that we would pursue. So the timing, therefore, does not reflect any second thoughts on the concept, which we think is still very attractive, but on the execution time line which needs to align with the financing of the project in terms of the execution of the documents.

Okay. And then just final question. Any comments on the referendum result of the weekend and whether you see any sort of changes in particular, whether there will be another round of review to the constitution again at some point in the future? And how you're thinking about that in terms of the long-term sort of stability of the operating sort of base?

Yes. Look, I think the -- a very positive development has been that the whole constitutional debate in Chile has been channel and handled through existing institutions. Now obviously, there's been 2 proposals, which have not been voted favorably for a new constitution, which essentially, I think, reaffirms the constitution that exists today. And therefore, from that point of view and from the point of view specifically of those provisions were applicable to mining, I think it's reassuring that basically through this process, we basically have the current legislative framework applicable to mining and business unchanged. Now the government has been quite clear in their declaration and commitment that they would not see any scope for having a further discussion on writing or proposing a new constitution. So I think that, that discussion is therefore muted at this stage. And I think the general sentiment locally is that the government and Congress focuses on some of the social aspirations around the health, pensions and education and address those rather than on attempting to rewrite the constitution. So my view is that, that discussion seems to have been settled. I think the focus has shifted. There is certainly no interest, I think, on relighting a text. And I think the existing constitution and framework, therefore, has been affirmed. So I -- my view, and certainly, as I say, the government has stated so that they will not attempt to reopen that conversation at this stage. It seems to have been settled and we will stay with the constitution that we have in place.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Edward Goldsmith at Deutsche Bank.

Ivan and Mauricio, thank you for the presentation. One question from my side, just on how we should think about the implication for the full year dividend and the shareholder return policy over the next few years following the Centinela and Buenaventura announcements.

Yes. Look, I think we have our capital allocation framework, and I think that remains intact. We -- and just to remind everybody, the cash that we generate goes first to funding our sustaining CapEx and mine development. Then we pay our dividend policy minimum commitment, which is 35% of earnings. And then we review in sequence, the options with the extra cash both between distributing them to shareholders for addressing investment opportunities and preserving a solid financial position. So that remains unchanged. That is the logic with which we will look at dividend payments. Now in the case of Centinela, we are undertaking, obviously, this big investment, which does commit Centinela's balance sheet. But in the way that we've thought about this funding is that it is essentially ring-fenced to Centinela during this period. And therefore, the other companies that we have in our portfolio and especially Pelambres, will therefore continue to remain in essence with the flexibility to use its cash because it's not tied into a project financing like Centinela with. So from the point of view how we finance these projects? We do them at asset level and therefore, to a large extent, the financial requirements and repayments are tied in to the asset and the project, specifically that we have mined. Now as also Mauricio explained, in this case especially, the funding has been structured in a way that it's a term funding, which has got a grace period and which has also a long maturity. And therefore, we tried to stretch the repayment so that they match more closely the life of the asset. So all of that is built into the way that we finance the projects to create the necessary flexibility to continue to provide funding to shareholders. So that is the way that we will look at. Our capital allocation, as I say, remains intact, and this is being funded at the asset level. Now obviously, we are going through a period as we've sanctioned this project at Centinela level, where we're using the balance sheet and therefore, we'll go through a period of higher investment as we sort of complete this project. But that structure remains intact. I don't know, Mauricio, if you want to add something to that?

No, I think it's a quite complete answer -- no.

This concludes all verbal questions. I would now like to hand it over to Robert Simmons to read out the written questions. Thank you.

Thank you very much. We have 2 email questions. The first being, how much will be the difference in the unit costs between the first and second concentrator? I'll pause there to answer that one before the second question.

Yes, I'm not sure how -- specific this is intended to be. But if we're talking about the processing cost of the concentrator rather than the production cost of copper coming out of the concentrator. It is -- the technology -- I mean, SAG mills and conventional milling as opposed to HPGR, which is rolling crushes, it's about $1 to $1.50 per tonne of ore processed cheaper. So that's on the basis of the throughput cost -- unit cost of the equipment.

Very good. The second question is, how long do you expect for it to take before the operation at Centinela moves back to its reserve grade? So currently, we are processing roughly 0.5% copper and the reserve grade is 0.4% copper.

Yes. Well, that changes obviously with the project that we've just sanctioned because we will now have the flexibility over time to feed 2 plants with 3 pits. And obviously, as we open up the Encuentro pit starting midway through construction of the Second Concentrator, we will go through zones of higher grade. So I think what this does, in essence, is it shifts that moment in time when we get and hit the sort of average grade further down the road, so it does push it back. Now the exact year, I don't have that in mind here. But I think conceptually, what we should have in mind is that we are building flexibility by opening up a third pit, which we'd start doing, as I've said, sort of halfway through construction of the Second Concentrator. And that means that we will have access to higher grade ore from that pit and therefore, the time by -- in which we get to the average grade of the ore body is actually being pushed back with this project. So I think that's directionally the movement in which we will move. And that's why this project is also a significant addition and it's attractive and an exciting opportunity for us.

Thank you. And with that, Ivan. I can confirm there are no more questions either on e-mail or audio. So just to hand back to you to close the call.

Okay. So look -- thank you, everybody, for joining. I know this is the time of the year in which people probably are thinking of the holiday season. So happy holiday to everyone. Just as a closing remark, I think we're very excited. People that have followed the company know that we've been working on this project for quite some time. We think this is the right time to make this expansion at Centinela. The asset is running extremely well. And therefore, we've got also an operating base, which is very solid, it's very robust. We have, in the case of this project, a construction plan, which is based on very advanced engineering, contracted prices for most of it, and at a time in which there is not many construction projects in Chile. So we're excited about the opportunity to move this forward. This will take us much closer to our aspiration of 900,000 tonnes of profitable production as it will also move us into the first quartile of the cost curve for Centinela. So we think this is consistent with our strategy. It plays on all of the strengths that we have to deliver additional profitable copper production to the market. So with that note, I'd like to wish everybody, as I say, a happy season, and thank you for joining the call, and we'll be in touch then early next year. Thank you very much.