Aperam S.A. (APAM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 7, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveGood morning, everybody. My name is Thorsten Zimmermann, I'm Head of Investor Relations at Aperam. I welcome you to our 2021 Capital Markets Day in Genk at Europe's most efficient stainless steel plant. We have prepared 4 presentations for you today, and management will explain how Aperam will change and improve to 2025. You can download the presentations either from the webcast page or at the Aperam home page in the Investors section. The final session of today will be a joint Q&A. We will start with questions in the room. And if you are listening via webcast, please either send us your questions at [email protected] via e-mail. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over to our CEO, Tim Di Maulo.
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveDear guests, thank you very much to come here in Genk or to assist to this webcast meeting. I'm happy I'm the CEO of this company. I'm a happy CEO, in the sense that in my 35 years of life in the stainless steel, these last 10 years from the creation of Aperam has been extremely exciting. And I think we can show you some of the results of the team, of our leadership team, of all our employees under the guidance of our Board. So 10 years, when we started, we were a relatively weak company with a huge debt, $1.1 billion at the moment of inception. We have been through cycles. We had a complex footprint. And now -- just each moment, let me one moment to take a look at what has happened during this year. So showing you what has happened during this year is something that can be done looking at these 2 charts. One chart is the total shareholder return. As you can see, 10 years show something like 150% and a result, which is compared to the sector much better than the average. And the second part is a chart, in which you can see our cash. We have generated EUR 3 billion cash and this has been used for 3 main elements, which are very big importance for us. The first part to deleverage the company. We are a company with nearly zero debt since the end of 2015. We are a company that has invested massively to strengthen the competitiveness, to strengthen the footprint, the -- including the environment footprint of Aperam. And we are a company who has generated solid return to shareholders, as just said. And these are the 3 elements with a trend that is very clear in the chart that you see here. But how this has could happen? This is the next point of my presentation. You probably know Aperam linked to what we call Leadership Journey. The name is very -- is always associated because this is our trademark. From the beginning, we were not expecting from the market, from prices, from the external events that the result of the company could have improved because they can improve but they can also decrease depending on the cycle. From the beginning of the story of Aperam, we have launched a company project named the Leadership Journey, in which we regroup all the initiatives, self-help measure to strengthen the company. And in particular, we have launched the 3 phases. We have achieved the 3 phases, which have generated around EUR 700 million. And you can see here these 3 phases were different in scope, depending on the moment. We have had the first phase launch just after the creation of Aperam, which has been focused on the restructuring, so decreasing of the line. The second phase, which was focused mostly on upgrading the asset. So using these lines for the best and for the growth. The third phase, which is part of the transformation with the new technology, with other initiatives in digitalization, procurement and the growth of distribution on the top line. You've seen part of it during the visit. So the new lines that you have seen yesterday give you a concrete example of what is happening in this company, how we are strengthening this company. And the target you see will continue to increase during the year. So after the Phase 1, 2, 3, there will be a Phase 4 and 5, we will talk of it today. What I've seen -- you can see is that production line is decreasing, FTE decreasing, but volumes increasing or stable depending on the situation of the market. This is a clear sign of competitiveness. We have the phased cycle, low cycle. And you can see here a comparison between 2 low cycle between 2018 and 2012 and 2019, 2020. Why we take this example because we are in a cyclical industry. But one of the target of the Leadership Journey on all the efforts we have done has been to make this company more resilient and being able, not only to resist and to generate -- continue to generate EBITDA and generate cash, but also to adapt to the situation with flexible tools, flexible man work and reducing the SG&A. This has been done, and the results are shown there. The situation of a low cycle, which we have seen in 2020 is completely different from what we have seen in 2012. Now why we can be excited on our environment. The first thing is stainless steel is a fantastic product. You can do with stainless steel everything. It's a bit expensive, but is durable, is recyclable. It is hygienic, you can clean without limit. And this is why you see it in the food processing. You see it in the hospital everywhere. So this product has a potential to substitute theoretically which is metallic. It's more expensive, yes, but it is expensing only in a short-term reason. If you look at sustainability, if you look at long term, it's clear that this material is a superior material. And you see that this is shown by figures. When you look at the comparison, the growth of the last 10 years and the same forecast for the next 10 years, the growth of stainless steel is double than the average of the other competing raw material. You see in the chart on the left. And you see that ahead of us, there are a lot of new opportunities, which are coming from legislation, for example, for the CO2 content, but also the participation to the mega trends that are linked to the environment on the new energy, on the e-mobility on the hydrogen. This will be seen later and on the service, on the need of shorter lead time where we are positioned with a strong footprint typically with service and solution. Now if we start with ESG, it's clear that as a company, we have a mindset of being responsible and to go ahead even faster than the requirement and lead the sector. So for the moment, we have the best footprint. We are working to continue to improve, and you will see we will work. In social, we have all the elements to show you that we are among the best employer and our -- in particular, our Brazil is showing the fantastic result of winning all the prime in -- during the last 3 or 4 years. And in governance, we are extremely strict. And we have a committed Board and corporate, which are fully embedded in our value. Now on health and safety, I will say that we can never be satisfied with the result of health and safety because the only way of being satisfied is a sustainable zero accident, which is not the case. But we are, as you can see, half of the average of the industry. We have a very low severity rate, which means that we really detect everything which happens and the large majority of the -- of what we can record are small incident with only few days of stops like spraining like it's a small [indiscernible]. But this doesn't mean that we are not working. We are working in many axes, which are on behavioral axes, but also investing. What you are seeing here is clearly showing you a safe plant where there is no, let's say, human people inside the machine, and so this is only also a way to prevent the accidents that happens. Automation is one of the axes. Now when we look at the environment, you know that we are in fact, a recycler of stainless steel. 90% of our raw material is scrap. Scrap that is collected close to the plant in an area here, which is important for the consumption of stainless steel and so we collect it. You see that the typical footprint of recycle of scrap on electrical furnace is in the box on the right, on the lower right. It's much better in terms of print than the integrated plant typically of the Asian producer, which are our main competitors, which have between 4 to 5, 6x the content of CO2. There is also another important element, which is interesting for Aperam is that electrical furnace means electricity. And we are exposed to the 3, let's say, countries in which the electricity is more efficient and cheaper as you can see on the left of the graph -- of the second graph. So this means that for Aperam, the road to zero emission and the road to 2030 30% emission is easier. We believe that the level of CapEx is -- will not exceed the EUR 200 million for the target 2030. We are already well advanced in the decrease of the CO2 emission. You can see the benchmark there. And you see where we are focusing today, our energy in CO2 is on electricity and in natural gas. But this is not enough. We want to be different from the sector. We want to be somebody who is strongly, strongly engaged in the circular economy. You have seen recently the acquisition of ELG, the acquisition, which is not closed today. We are waiting for that and we'll be happy to host you in the second event in which we will explain the fundamentals of this acquisition, how we can work on it. But you have already the key elements in what we have published during the Q2 results. So we believe in the circular economy, we believe is the future, and we are investing in it. And we are investing not only in the scrap recycling, but we have invested also, maybe is less known in Recyco. Recyco is a unit in Isbergues, in which we take all the waste from mills, not only our mills, but also mills of other business, dust in particular. And this dust is treated and recycled, not to let in the nature, heavy metals and to use them as a source of raw material. Recyco is a fantastic unit in which we are continuously investing entities in France in Isbergues. And then we have another fantastic unit, which is renewable energy in BioEnergia. In BioEnergia, we produce from trees, charcoal in a sustainable process, which is transforming this -- which is using this charcoal instead of coke, while coke is emitting the biggest part of the pollution that we are fighting today in the planet. So before looking at the movie, just have in mind that this is one of the axes of development of Aperam. We want to develop this circular economy. We believe that as being a stainless steel producer, you are already recycling scrap. Now we go ahead with the upstream integration in the circular economy. And already today, when the acquisition of ELG will be closed, nearly 30% of our people will be in the circular economy, which is a big step already in our journey. Now I invite you to watch a small movie that will give you a better understanding on what is BioEnergia. [Presentation]
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. So it has been a very short movie. A visit would have been better because -- but the visit is long because it's far and it's huge. It is 116,000 hectares. Can you imagine this, as a surface, is very huge. You need 5 hours by car to cross our lands. It's an example of diversity and is a clear example of the engagement of Aperam in the environmental. But since years, you see this is not new. It's something that we are continuing -- let's say, growing and using since many years. Now if we can go a step by -- what is -- what are the elements of our strategy that you can focus and you will see better in the next presentation. 5 pillars. One is the cost improvement. Now I think you know us for the cost focus and the cost improvement will always be the genetic behavior of our management and our people. Leadership Journey is something which is known by the workers, by the employees, by the white collars, by everybody in the company and is a company trademark for which we are proud. And this will continue. In 2021, 2013 (sic) [ 2023 ], have already launched the Leadership Journey 4 with part of the investment, which are linked to this that you will see. We are working on Leadership Journey 5, which will start from 2024. So always, we create a movement for the next years. We are working on mix improvement. So part of the presentation, and you have seen, the mega trend of today are favorable for stainless steel and for the alloys. And for this, we are investing also in the mix, and you will have a clear example. On ESG, we just discussed. On performance, okay, 10 years past, I think we are good. Now our engagement is to do at least as much and continuous growth. And then opportunity. We have had an opportunity, the beautiful of having a strong balance sheet. We know that is the flexibility and the agility, you can use the opportunity that happens. ELG was an excellent opportunity. We have done it, but that's not mandatory for us to have only M&A. We will choose always the best project between strategic CapEx growth -- organic growth as we have done with very strong IRR, and they can grant you that there is no investment in which the IRR even in crash test is considered below the 15%. So this means that the average is much higher. And we are increasing the presence. And here, Frederic will give you an example of what is the international presence in niche. We have seen the differentiation product, a good product. But there is an important factor that you have to keep in mind. We can be the most differentiated producer in the world, but not make money. Making money means that you have also to be current in a mix differentiation and a very strong cost base for the mix that you are producing. This is sometimes something that is forgotten in what is the differentiation. We are a producer of specialty. But for this, we demand that the performance, the financial performance, the cost performance, the service performance are at the top because only with this, it is sustainable. And also, I repeat this will be shown in all the steps that will be explained to you in the few minutes to come of the Leadership Journey Phase 4, which is composed of many elements. You have seen a part of the elements, which is the startup of the train of Genk, the [indiscernible] and [indiscernible] of the visit of yesterday. There is much more that Bernard and Frederic will explain. So what does it mean to all this? And what are our engagement? You have seen our story. You have seen our results. What we lead for -- what we are engaging for is growth, growth in our profitable -- in our profitability. You see the target there for 2025. This higher profitability means cash, cash generated, cash that will be partially used to continue strengthening the company, partially used to have a good shareholder return and in a stable way. You have seen what is the trend. In low cycle, we are much stronger today than we were in the past. In high cycle, all the benefit of the Leadership Journey, all the benefit of what we are doing and what you see concretely will be there. So for this and to strengthen your understanding of our strategy or what our next step, et cetera, I leave the word to my colleague, starting from Bernard Hallemans, which is who is the CEO of Stainless Europe, and he's the boss here in this plant.
Bernard Hallemans
executiveThank you, Tim, from my side. So I'm Bernard Hallemans. I'm heading the Stainless Europe division inside Aperam. And so I wish you also a very welcome here in the Genk plant for those who are physically present and who have done the visit yesterday and also for everyone who is connected through the webcast. So I will use the next 25, 30 minutes to guide you through stainless Europe. I will give you a status of where we are today. And I will also especially give you some flavor about the ongoing footprint work we are doing, and that is, I think, giving concrete examples of what Tim just explained before. But let me first start with a recap to explain again who we are and what we do in stainless Europe. So as it is said here in the title of this slide, we are an integrated-multiplant organization, a very flexible one. And we have a big advantage in the sense that as well for the supply of raw materials, so the collection of scrap. As for the delivery of our customers, we are very near to the center where it happens. So we have a big customer base very near to our plans. Also, a lot of the scrap, which is collected in Europe is very near to our plants. We have 4 big production assets, 2 in Belgium and 2 in France, Genk, Chatelet, Isbergues and Gueugnon. On this chart, you also see a fifth plant, which is Pont-de-Roide, and this is a plant belonging to our division where we make precision strip. We do not talk a lot about this plant, but it's an important element also in the footprint work that we are doing. And so it's important to mention it also in this context. Now what do we do? We make flat stainless steel products. And in order to do that, we need to convert scrap. We will recycle scrap and we can do this endlessly without loss of quality, as you know, first things. We have to convert the scrap into finished products. And to get to finished products, we have to go through 3 big production stages, which are shown in the left scheme here on this slide. First stage, we will convert the scrap into stainless steel slabs. And this we do in a steel plant. We have 2 state-of-the-art steel plants in Europe in Belgium, 1 in Genk and 1 in Chatelet. Once we have obtained these slabs, we need a second step to convert a slab to lower the thickness and to go to what we call a black coil or a hot-rolled coil. We have one important asset to do that in Europe, and this is our hot-rolling mill in Chatelet. Slabs and black coils do not allow you to make finished products in stainless steel. So we need a third conversion step. And this is done in what we call a cold-rolling mill for which we have 3 facilities, 1 in Belgium, 2 in France, each of them dedicated to certain markets, as I will explain further in this presentation. The Pont-de-Roide mill, and so the precision strip production is further ahead in the supply chain, and it's one of the internal customers of the scheme that you see here on this slide. We could also divide the supply chain into 2 parts. We talk about upstream and upstream is the sum of our steel plants in our hot-rolling mill. And then we have downstream where we find the cold-rolling mills of Aperam in Europe. As said, we operate the whole scheme as one integrated supply chain and as one entity working together to deliver our customers. Now as Tim already illustrated in the past, we have done a lot of homework on this footprint. Upstream, we have state-of-the-art assets, 2 melt shops with a nameplate capacity of 1 million tonnes, a very performing -- well-performing hot-rolling mill. We have done a lot of homework on the footprint downstream. And you see this complex scheme, which compares the footprint in 2009 with the one in 2020. And if we add the precision strip footprint that we have in 2009 and in 2020, we can say that we came down from 36 main assets to 22 in this downstream footprint already by 2020. So it was already a strong improvement of our performance of our cost position, et cetera, in the past Leadership Journey exercises that we have done. And this has allowed us to already be on the market as we are in 2020. You have seen the results even in a low cycle, as Tim explained. We are present in all main markets, which are consuming stainless steels. And we have represented them here in 3 parts. You have the capital goods, consumer goods and automotive. And we serve these markets with, on the one hand, what we call standard rather standard products, could call them real commodities. But we also have an important part and -- an increasingly important part of what we call top line products, and that's where the mix improvement comes at play. We can then -- and I'll try to show you the groups of main stainless steel families. I will not go into detail, but each market needs a certain mechanical or chemical composition of our steel. So we need to serve these markets with specific alloys or specific surface finishes as the customer requires. We have a very wide portfolio already. And as I said, increasingly rich with top line products. The work we have done up to now has also allowed us to serve these customers with products, which have an extremely good competitiveness, a cost position, which is many times already an undisputed leading cost position in Europe. You see 2 colors in this slide for the families that are shown. The orange products are the products where we consider that we are in this -- already in this undisputed cost-leading position. On the purple ones, we still see potential ahead, and it is -- especially on the purple ones that we have footprint measures ongoing to further improve the cost position and the competitiveness of the products concerned. And I will further explain in the next slide how we are going to do this. Now this is maybe the most important message I want to pass through concerning our targets in the ongoing footprint work. We are completely aligned with what Tim said before in terms of strategy and of pillars upon which we build our work. Every footprint move that we do inside stainless Europe will be measured against 3 very important criteria that you see in this slide. First, we want to be a cost leader in Europe in every product that we sell. This is a very clear criteria, which we'll always, always follow. And so every footprint change will be measured against what we can do in this sense to further improve our position. But it's not only cost. As important as cost, we have our mix evolution. We want to become richer and richer in mix. We want to sell top line specialties to our customers, and the mega trends are giving us further opportunities in this sense. And so every footprint move is also measured against the possibility to improve our top line and our mix in the European context. The third element is getting more and more important each day. It's not new for us, but the importance is absolutely continuing to rise. In every footprint move we make, we will also look at what we can do to reduce greenhouse gas emission. So every footprint move will also contain a component where we will reduce, sometimes drastically reduce our CO2 emission and our CO2 footprint. Now I have 2 slides further on to illustrate the ongoing footprint work we are doing. And to show you that these 3 components are every time coming back into every project. I told you before that in our supply chain, we look at the supply chain as upstream and as downstream. So I first show you what we are doing on the upstream part. So the 2 melt shops, the 2 steel plants and the hot-rolling mill, as you see below in the slide. At this moment, we have 2 big projects ongoing already announced also to the markets in terms of footprint. The first one is considering our hot-rolling mill in Chatelet. What are we doing in this hot-rolling mill? At this moment, we are conducting a project which is extending the capabilities of this hot-rolling mill. And so there, I maybe start with the second pillar, capability extension means that we will be able, on this hot-rolling mill, to get to new stainless steels, harder materials, maybe thicker, maybe other dimensions. We will put the necessary tools in this hot-rolling mill to acquire the capabilities to get to these markets. And at the same time, it will strongly improve the cost to produce these materials as well. So we work on the first pillar, but not only for the special grades. The project that we are conducting today will also improve quality, yields, and hence, costs of all the products that go through this hot-rolling mill. And so the cost position for all our products will further increasingly improve with this project. Energy savings are also part of this footprint move, and so we work on the 3 pillars, as I said before. Ramp-up of this capability extension is foreseen for the moment mid-2022, so in 10 to 11 months from now. Second project on which we are working and which has been revitalized is the AOD project in Genk. AOD stands for argon-oxygen decarburization. It is the technical term for the refining we need to do in our steel inside the steel plant while we produce our slabs. Why are we working on this project in the Genk steel plant? We still have the possibility by extending the capability and renewing the capability in this refining part to, firstly, work on costs. This project will allow us to further increase the flexibility by which we can load raw materials into our steel plant, who has flexibility in loading raw materials as optimization of cost. We will be much more flexible even than today to load any kind of raw material that we can find on the market. At the same time, we have a very strong energy cost reduction component inside this project. So inside the project, there is a big component on heat recovery, on energy regeneration of all the heat that we have in our steel plant production. And so it will also substantially reduce the CO2 footprint of the steel plants. And hence, of course, we will work on the third pillar as I explained before. Second pillar will also be addressed because with this boosted refining possibility, we will also be able to produce in a much more flexible and a much more productive way special grades, which need special attention in the refining stage. So again, on the opportunities we see on the market, the new grades that we could deliver in the future will be produced in a much more efficient way when we will have conducted this project. This project should ramp up mid- -- before mid-2023, so first half of 2023. Two projects together involve a CapEx need of around EUR 120 million. But we do not only work on the upstream. We also work on our downstream footprint still. You have seen that we already did a lot of homework in the past. Now we still have, at this moment, 2 big projects, of which 1 is in final ramp-up. You have -- those who are here have visited it yesterday. We have the Genk footprint projects, one new annealing and pickling line and one cold rolling mill, new cold rolling mill. It will clearly allow and it is allowing -- because it is happening today, it is allowing the Genk mill to extend its cost leadership position to -- towards thinner products. Genk was historically very strong on rather thicker material. Now Genk will also acquire a clear cost leadership position in Europe on thin material. It will also allow us to produce top-quality, new thinner cold-rolled products. So we work on the second pillar there as well. And the 2 lines we have invested, and I think those who have done the visit yesterday will know what I'm talking about, are really state of the art in terms of energy consumption. So again, there, on CO2, we make a major step forward to produce these thinner gauge materials. At the same time, we are moving production from between plants, and by concentrating some more production in Genk, we will also reduce our transport cost. So we will have -- Genk being very close to the upstream, we will have a reduction in transport cost and hence, also CO2 emissions related to this footprint move. Second footprint move, which has been more recently announced, is what I call the Gueugnon footprint, but we are not only working on Gueugnon. What will happen inside the stainless Europe perimeter, with the Genk footprint ramping up, we will move certain products from the Gueugnon mill to the Genk mill, make them more efficient, to make them more cost efficient. So we have some capacity, which is freed up in Gueugnon. We are today conducting a project, which will use this capacity to create more value-add products. So we are upgrading several tools in Gueugnon to allow these tools to produce new products, which have a higher euro per tonne added value. And it will, amongst others, also allow us -- and this is why I talked about precision steel in the beginning of my presentation. It will also allow us to produce precision strip instead of [ cold rolled wire ] today, where we have some obsolete tools still. It will allow us to produce these products in the Gueugnon mill. So Gueugnon will extend its capability, be able to produce thinner in a very productive and performed way, and it will go partially also to a precision strip production. So I think it's clear for you that, there, we will again work on cost leadership amongst others in precision, very thin material. An important aspect also, and Frederic Mattei will come back on it, is that Gueugnon will also be the center of production for flat alloys products, which will allow alloys also to grow into other segments. I will let him explain. We extend capabilities, so we work on mix. I think I don't have to repeat myself. And again, in this project, we will have substantial energy savings. In total, we talk about an additional CapEx of around EUR 50 million. And while Genk is completing its ramp-up this year, so by the end of the year, we should have finished with acquiring the savings in Gueugnon, in the other footprint project, savings will rather come during 2023. So what does it -- does this all lead to when we will have conducted these projects? Talked about upstream. So in upstream, there is no real change in footprint, but there is a big increase in capability and a further push on costs. We look at downstream and take back the schemes that you have seen between 2009 and 2020. We will further rationalize the number of downstream tools with the work that we are doing. And so at the end of the day, if you compare the footprint we will have in 2023 with the 1 we had in 2009, we will have close to 50% less tools for an increased capacity. And I think it clearly shows you the amount of work we will have done by then. And the leap forward, we will make further in performance and in productivity. We will go from 36 to 19 core tools by 2023. You also see that in capacity, there will be a little shift, so Genk capacity clearly increasing. Gueugnon slightly decreasing but the mix inside this volume will be totally different and will create much higher value than the mix that we have today in our Gueugnon mill. And so at the end of the day, when I take back the scheme of products we deliver in markets that we serve, our goal is very clearly in line with what I said before: to become, in 2023, a producer who -- for every product family that we serve, who is cost leader, who is the most competitive amongst Europeans to deliver these products to our customers. So if I try to summarize what we are trying to do with the work that we are conducting. I think the first part shown on this slide is obvious. So we go for the most efficient footprint possible, lines with state-of-the-art technology. And I will show you a small movie still on the 4 in a few minutes. We have this logistics advantage, thanks to our proximity to incoming and outcoming flows. And so this makes us clearly to be well placed to be the lowest cost producer in Europe in the future. But again, it's not only about cost. We really want to embed stainless Europe into the circular economy of the future. And this is why the ESG component is that important. So it is really embedded in all what we do, and every project will cover also this aspect. And we should not forget that we greatly benefit from the integration we have inside Aperam with our S&S colleagues. So downward, we have this distribution component that permits us to serve our customers with the best service and on a short lead time. And once we will have had the approval for ELG integration, we will have also the same kind of model in upstream. So it will really allow us to be an actor in the circular economy from the collection of scrap down to the delivery of our main customers. Now before letting you go for a coffee break, I would like to take the opportunity first to show you a visit -- a video, not a visit. That was yesterday. Then we will have a coffee break, and I would ask everyone to be back at 10:15 at the latest. After which, Frederic Mattei, who is the CEO of alloys, will guide you through alloys markets and the strategy that alloys has. But so before to go on this coffee break, I would like, again, to show you a video. For those who have done the visit yesterday, it is about the [ Ball 4 ] of the new annealing and pickling line. You will see it from the outside. This time, you will see it working. You will see the steam coming out. It is a line of more than 300 meters for those who are not present here and have not done the visit. But I think it still gives you a very good flavor about what we are doing in stainless Europe in about 4 minutes. So I propose to launch the video. [Presentation] [Break]
Frederic Mattei
executiveHello, everyone. It's now my turn to welcome you here in Genk and on our webcast today. My name is Frederic Mattei. I'm the CEO of the Alloys & Specialty division of Aperam. And my task in the coming half an hour is to drive you into the fascinating world of the alloys. So First, I think it is important to consider this Alloys & Specialty business as a different segment. There are many reasons for that. The first thing is on the business model, it is a very specific business model. First, we have to keep in mind that this is a global business. If we take our own production, we make 50% of our business outside Europe. It's a 100% specialty business. I will explain what I mean by these words, which are keywords in if you want to fully understand my presentation. And it is highly diversified in terms of grade, markets, locations and so on. It's a business for which there are specific success factors. I think the key word here is innovation or understanding the needs of the market or preparing the product for the needs of the market. So innovating, being able to transfer the ID, the need into a product, these are part of the success factors and that may lead us to tailor-made products. It's also a market where knowledge references are absolutely important that are barriers for entry, and it's also for us very often competitive edge. We have strong metallurgy knowledge. We have strong R&D. We have an equipment, which is fully dedicated to the alloys production. And we also built with time a strong portfolio of patents, certifications, homologation. And you will see from my presentation that these aspects are really important when you consider the applications and the work of our own customers. So altogether, you can follow our results over the years, we have a business, which is rather with a low cyclicality not because every market is -- has a low cyclicality, but the combination of all of the market mix is cyclicality less lower. And the other aspect is, over time, we have a very robust track record with return on capital employed, which is at least 15% over the years. So before going more into the details, I suggest we play a bit with nickel because we say alloys, most of what we do is nickel alloys. So this is nickel. And we may try to add a bit of iron or cobalt. And if you do so, you go for very interesting properties of the material. This material has now electrical properties, magnetic properties. It also has specific properties where you can control the thermal expansion of the material depending on the temperature or you can drive a very specific temperature when you hit the material. So this is what you can do. But why not add a bit more molybdenum or titanium. And if you do so, you go to another family of product, which we call the maraging. This family of product is amazing in terms of mechanical properties. So you can use it for very demanding applications, which are very diverse. This one is a mechanism for watch but can be many other things. Let's remove all these elements and add some chromium and some rare earth. And then you have a material, which is perfect for electrical resistance. So in your oven at home or when you make your toast, you need electrical resistance somewhere, this is nickel alloys. So you start understanding that we are talking about a product, which is everywhere in our daily life and which is also everywhere in the industry in general. I may add also iron, chromium, molybdenum, and I have a family of products, which are very strong in corrosion resistance. But if I add more titanium and vanadium, I have other properties. This is what we call the high-performance alloys, typically, what you have in the turbo of your of your car. This is that kind of material and so on and so on. I can make welding wire for specific applications, but I can also make a desalination plant and transform seawater into potable water. For that, there is a specific chemical environment, which needs a specific answer, and this answer can be given by that kind of material. And if I put even more copper inside, I get another series of electrical properties. This is typically what you find in your circuit breakers at home. And so on and so on. The last example I can give you is these, what we call the thermocouples. It allows you to measure temperature in very different environments. So it's a mixture of nickel and chromium. So you understand where I want to go. I mean these products have an amazing number of properties, and this is endless. Whatever the new needs that may come from the trends of the industry from the customers, there is an alloy for that. So based on that, we easily understand that we see that market as a growing market. Of course, there was a decrease of 2020. But generally, when you look at the future, we expect this market to be a growing one with rather attractive growth. So on this chart, you see how it is expected to grow by end market. There is another way to look at it with a more industrial way. It's to look at it in terms of growth for the shapes of alloys. So I won't go into the details. Just keep in mind that what we are focusing mainly in the Alloys & Specialty division is 2 shapes of product, what is called here on this chart, wire rod, so it's a long product; and what is called here coil, which often we call strip. So our main products in terms of shape are wire rod and coil strip. Again, to give you a better flavor of what -- of why I tell you this is a different business, I think it's also interesting to look at it as a comparison when we make a difference between commodities and specialties. What is a specialty? Specialty, it's something which is perceived by the customer as bringing a specific value above the primary purpose. So you have a product. You may need mechanical properties, but you may need additional thing or it can be serviced. It can be safety news. It can be many things. Here, you are talking about the specialty because it's not substitutable the same way because beyond the product, you need something more. So if I compare what is a commodity compared to specialties and how we translate this in the way we drive the business, I would say that, first, commodities are price sensitive, while specialties are value sensitive. So that means that you need to understand the way -- the cost of your product, but including, for instance, the total life cost of the product. It's a difference also. The difference can also be between standardization of the product -- standardization and tailor-made products. Again, if your customers need something, which is very specific, they won't go for the standard product. They won't go for an offer, which is in line with the needs, and it may be even tailor-made. And last but not least, this is a global business, not a regional one, which means that you have a customer base, which is very diverse, and you have to reach these customers wherever they are in the world. So having said that, we have to translate this into the way we drive the business. And this is what we have. We have a dedicated division, Alloys & Specialty, which has a global presence. We have a sales network, which is contacting our customers everywhere in the world. We even have industrial presence in Asia. I will go back to that. You need strong technical marketing and support to the customers. We are organized to have that. We have dedicated teams to do that job. We have a dedicated R&D center, and you have to prepare the future market. So this R&D center, combined with the knowledge of the market allows us to drive an innovation program, which is preparing the products for the future. It can be small evolution, just following the needs of our customers with time or it can be how to give an answer to disruption on the industry like we foresee in the car industry for example. So we have a global footprint. What do I mean by that? So sales network is almost everywhere we need a contact with the customers. The industrial locations, we have 5 mills. The first one -- the biggest one is located in France in Imphy. This one, we could consider it somehow as an upstream, so it is producing wire rod and coils, strip, flat products, which are sold either direct to the customers or to our so-called downstream mills. So the downstream mills can -- are -- their target is to transform the products that come from Imphy into a more added value product. So we have a location in France -- 2 other locations in France, 1 in Amilly, which is dedicated to stamped parts. You have a picture here. We have another, which is located close to Paris in Epone, who is doing some wire out of the wire which comes from Imphy. And we have 2 locations in Asia: 1 in China and 1 in India, which allows us to be there and also to produce specific products including multi-layer material, which we do in India. So knowing the diversity of applications of the market and based on our customer base, we have a wide range of end segments going from electrical -- electronic applications to marine application. I will go back to that via oil and gas applications. So these are -- this is the breakdown of our sales. But to be more specific, I suggest we go into 2 specific applications to show you more in detail what we do. The first application is what we do in cryogenic. So cryogenic means you have to provide the appropriate answer to an environment, which is extremely cold. For that, as I said, there is an alloy for that. And this is the first family I mentioned before, the thermal expansion control is key because when you have a very cold environment, actually, the equipment may become warmer and then colder and warmer and colder. And if it moves, then you may have a problem with cracks, and that may lead to a safety problem. So if you take, for instance, the transportation of liquid natural gas, this material is transported by ship at the temperature of minus 163 degrees. So you need a material, which is able to carry this liquid natural gas. And you can imagine the safety issue is major, and there are a lot of constraints. We have our -- what we call the INVAR, which is our grade -- which is a perfect solution for this. Just to give you an idea, among all the vessels, all the ships carrying liquid natural gas today in the world, 40% of them has been produced out of our material. Another application is when you need pipes to transfer some very cool fluid. The fact is, for technical reasons, if you do that, you need to control the expansion of the fluids and you have several technical solutions. Our solution allows to have straight pipes, which is a great benefit for costs and so on. So again, for this application, we have a solution. Why do I mention these applications, it's also because we know that the future -- in the future, we may have a strong role to play in hydrogen development. Hydrogen will very likely be a cold fluid to be transported somehow. So we are ready for that kind of application for the future. Something which is more maybe easier, more easy to see and to feel, just look at your car. So this car here, they are -- you see the different products we are able to provide for a car. And the different elements on this picture are either for traditional cars or for the cars of tomorrow. You see when we are talking about airbags or turbos, this is something, which is existing for years. When we are talking about OLED screens in the cars, I would say this is the cars of today. This is what the general feature, which we find today. And when we are talking about electrical motors that may be put in the wheels of the car, for instance, or even hydrogen tanks, these are the applications for the future. We are working on that. We are preparing the future with our products to be able to meet the requirements of the car industry in the future. So what about our market position? We are #2. We have grown from a position, which was #4 to #2 position. As I said, we have a major production location in France, but we have also -- we not only sell in Asia, but we have a footprint -- industrial footprint in Asia, which we believe is a strong asset for the future. Our return on capital employed is at least 15% over the years, and this is -- that makes us very profitable and also stable division. And here also, you have the breakdown of what we produce. As I said, our main core product in terms of shapes are wire and strip. You see that represent 90% of what we do. So we are leading the alloy sector in terms of capital efficiency and stability. And we have -- we are considered as a reference in the alloys market by our customers. So when it's about getting alloys, we are among the ones, which are expected to deliver. We have in front of us strong market growth. This market growth is linked to the so-called megatrends of the industries, the mobility of tomorrow, the energies of tomorrow, other applications, also the number of screens we have with always growing quality and so on. That makes a lot of fields where alloys will be needed in the future, and that will definitely drive the market. So there is a growth to be caught. And from the innovation and product design point of view, we are strongly working on that. So you have the kind of applications we are working on, electrical motors for flying vehicles, the energy of tomorrow, screens and so on. So what is our strategy? This is a growth plan. We want to grow, and we believe we have a growth potential, which is in the range of EUR 40 million additional EBITDA by 2025. The reason for that is because, as I said several times since the beginning of my presentation, we are preparing that in terms of product, but we will also prepare ourselves in terms of manufacturing capabilities. Of course, we also have a constant focus on cost control. So we have cost reduction plan, which is also very much focusing on the efficiency of the use of raw material because raw materials are most of what we transform, and being very efficient in raw material is something which is key in our business. So to this extent, the combination with ELG, provided it is approved, will be a great opportunity also for the Alloys & Specialty division. We have market positions, which we want to keep and to leverage because our existing markets are still growing, and we want to be present on the emerging applications. And for that, I will go in a bit more details thereafter. We will adjust also our industrial footprint because we need, let's say, capacity but not capacity in terms of big volumes. We need capacity in terms of capacity available for some very specific applications for which we want to be able to produce with a great flexibility and the capacity to adapt ourselves on a regular basis. So this is what is driving our plan, which, again, is targeting an additional EUR 40 million EBITDA until 2025. And last but not least, Asian footprint, I mentioned it also several times. Asian footprint is something we have. We are very proud of being able to operate in India, in China with a very successful track record. And building on that with enhanced presence there is also part of our projects. So I will go back to what we want to do on the industrial point of view. As I said, what we target is very high-end industrial capabilities. For that, we have a very good mill, which is located in Imphy. I'm talking about the flat products, which we are producing today. This very good mill located in Imphy is quite strongly loaded. And if we want to be able to make it able to catch the future, we have decided to improve it, improving, meaning adjusting our production equipment to make it really at the top of the technology in terms of surface quality in general. So this is what we do. And at the same time, and this was said in Bernard Hallemans' presentation, we closely work with our colleagues from stainless and specifically in Gueugnon, to make them able to transform or partly transform part of the alloys we are making, which creates, by transfer, additional capacity to Imphy, which will be used with an enhanced capability to deliver to the most demanding markets. So this is the rationale, which is behind our project; and for this, we need some investment, which is representing for the flat product production, around EUR 15 million CapEx to be -- which will contribute to our to our business by 2023. And the other big initiative again in Imphy is for the long products. Here, we have a position -- Imphy is a fully integrated mill. You have in Imphy a melt shop. You have the hot rolling mill for wire rod. So we have a very fast route of production. And this model, we want to keep and we want to have for the future equipment, which is at the top of the technology and to keep us ahead of our competitors. So we plan for a major revamping of -- on the -- of our hot rolling mill, which will allow us, first, to be at the level of the highest standards in terms of environment and safety for our workers. Since we are, in this project, changing the technology of reheating of the products, it will be an opportunity for us to decrease our CO2 emissions. If I just focus on the reheating part of the process, we are talking about a reduction by 60% of CO2 emissions for the reheating part of the process. That will be a much more productive equipment, which also will give us, for the future, strong capacity to react to the market needs. And so it will be ready for any long-term development of the market, very flexible. And very important, while we will do this, we have organized ourselves to make sure that we don't go out of the market when we are building this equipment. So there will be a full continuity of work and because most of the equipment will be installed off-line and started when everything is fine with the ramp-up, so no impact for our customers, for our market presence. So these are our major projects. So if -- in a nutshell, if I sum up, I would say that we are on a great market with endless possibilities. There are market -- there are megatrends for which we have solutions, so we definitely have opportunities to catch. We strongly believe we can catch these opportunities that may represent an additional EUR 40 million growth -- EUR 40 million EBITDA for the Alloys & Specialty division. And for -- in order to be able to do that, we need, let's say, 3 things. One is to keep understanding in very details our customers' needs, and that leads us to innovation, R&D, new products. We are very much focused on that. Second aspect is to make our equipment able to follow these new needs, which we know will be extremely demanding. And we do that both in flat and long products. And last aspect is our Asian presence, which, again, is a very strong asset, which we have. It allows us also to make more value-added products and leveraging this Asian presence is also part of our future. So thank you for your attention. So now I will leave the floor to Sudhakar Sivaji, our CFO, who will talk about the financial policy and the medium-term targets. Thank you.
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveThank you, everybody, for coming to Genk. And thanks to everyone on the webcast joining this call as well. So my name is Sud Sivaji. I'm the CFO of Aperam, and I have the honor of hosting you all today on this Capital Markets Day with my colleagues. Now you heard my colleagues, Tim, Bernard and Frederic, talk about Aperam. Tim started out by saying what is our track record, what is our DNA, what's our strategy and what we want to be. And my colleagues, Frederic and Bernard, have spoken about how we want to do it and why we want to do it in 2 of our divisions. Now it's up to me to try to translate this and how this creates value for you. This is a chart some of you may be familiar with. This is at the core of everything we do at Aperam when it comes to creating value. These 5 pillars are the sequence how we think, starting from the CEO till the factory worker. End of the day, we see a strong balance sheet at the core of everything we do. We are in a cyclical industry. And our balance sheet provides us not just the financial stability, but also an operational leverage in times of low cycles. On top of that, we use cash to invest in our company to create sustainable value and transform our company, as has been demonstrated by my colleagues on the different leadership journeys we have been in the past and we intend to do in the future. The next is when we talk about cash, which is available after that for value-accretive M&A growth and organic CapEx, all we have a very strict IRR expectation of at least 15%. Pending that, a company that is Aperam, 10 years old, we would like to actually establish our reputation, and we've done that in the past years, that we pay stable dividends to our shareholders. Any excess cash would definitely be returned to the shareholders. This is the core of how we operate. Now one special note, there is a sticker you see there on our ELG acquisition, which is still pending regulatory approval. Just wanted to note that we have discussed in the past, but it is an acquisition which we made at an extremely attractive price for us and the colleagues have explained the strategic value. So in practical terms, I believe we just paid for the net working capital, which comes along with the business, and this business is going to create value for us as the colleagues have shown. You know our solid balance sheet. We'll use that going forward. Now let's explore a couple of other items on this list. First things first, on something which is they know, but at the same time, important when you think about it as a metals and a solutions company is how we manage our net working capital. There is a lot of noise out there how net working capital gets created and released in up cycles and down cycles. At Aperam, net working capital is cash, meaning that every invented cent actually is expected to be returned back with the value. We do not just measure return on working capital and release of cash, but we also do something called a second order control, which is quite simple. We say if sales goes down within the next 6 weeks, we have to manage our inventory. You see the chart on the left side -- sorry, on the right side, which shows how closely our net working capital has followed sales over the past 3 years. There have been several cycles up or down. I can tell you that translates to a number of 82% correlation in terms of net working capital reduction when sales goes down or net working capital build up when sales goes up the quarter before. This helps us to create value. And you also see that we have not yoyo-ed on working capital or introduced delays because on the right side, you see the turnover chart. We manage net working capital based on our business model. Over the past 30 months, you can see that our business models in the stainless and industry division, extremely stable turnovers. Our USP, which is our sales and -- sorry, service and solutions unit, S&S distribution unit, we use that. And you can see how the turnover is managed there. So the discussion at Aperam is never about releasing cash or stepping up cash. The discussion at Aperam is about building net working capital to serve value in the future, in the near future and releasing it if we see that the opportunities are going away. And an important note is that our growth plan does not include any substantial jumps in working capital. Yes, when we acquired ELG, there will be net working capital coming in, but that's part and parcel of acquiring a scrap recycling business, and that's a key asset. Now moving on to another aspect, which some of you probably are looking into, which is CapEx. There's been a lot of discussion on if we have invested the right amount of CapEx. You can see that in the past, the right-side chart shows that our CapEx is on an average approximately equal to our depreciation in the past. Of this, about EUR 80 million to EUR 85 million is the regular maintenance CapEx in a normally balanced year. Now a year like last year, where we found that the utilization went down, for obvious reasons we did not have to do as much regular maintenance. However, you see that even in a year like last year, we did in strategic and improvement CapEx because of our strong balance sheet. And that enabled us to see the lines yesterday because we went forth with it. And Aperam, thankfully, because of its discipline, because of its focus on its balance sheet can make such decisions strategically looking at medium and long term. You can see that cash returns dominate since 2015, but it's still a picture, which is actually giving you a clear idea of what we do at Aperam. We balance, we invest in our company, but we would also like to invest -- return value to our investors. Currently, you've seen my colleagues present footprint changes, mix improvements, growth opportunities. We believe that it's a short window. And we will use the short window, and thanks to our focus on growth, to improve our mix substantially. So that results in, if you look at the perspective percentage of cash usage, if you see in relation with EBITDA, we expect that we would have more free cash flow, and the proportions are shown on your screen, available either to return to shareholders. And in case, interesting opportunities arise also to look at growth. But we do see a substantial chance of increasing our free cash flow generation as part of this growth plan which has been shown. Now it's more than just a vision. Tim presented that. Let me walk you a couple of minutes through this plan. As Tim said, it's more than just cost cutting. We are looking at specific growth opportunities. We are looking at becoming a value leader in Europe, but we are also looking at improving our portfolio in Brazil. Let me spend a minute on Brazil. The 2 lines you see at the bottom which is the Brazil electrical steel diversification, where we invest in our electrical steel products in Brazil. In this case, we are moving away or I should say, we are adding on higher value-added products in our electrical steel, which are products which we produce besides our stainless steel in Brazil. To remind some of you, we, in Brazil, we produce primarily stainless steel, but we also produce 3 other products, which is electrical steel grain-oriented, electrical steel nongrain-oriented and carbon steel in specialties. Now what this investment allows us is that while stainless is our leading product, the other products which we use to fill the mix, we like to become more profitable and develop into more value-added areas. And those are the reasons why we invest in electrical steels in Brazil. And lastly, on Brazil, you see a line, and we announced it last quarter, is investment in our hot-rolling mill in Brazil to move towards, again, higher value-added products in the value chain in Brazil. So talking about growth in the future, just looking at the past, you can call it a cycle, you can call it the way the business moves and like somebody asked me in the break, is this how the business is going to be? But what we do see is in the future that there is a certain normality in the future, which would be closer to 2021 than to whatever you would call normal cycles in the past in the areas we operate in. With a stable demand, fair trade, thanks to the legislation we are operating in, our own distribution growth, a streamlined cost base, I'm glad my colleagues have discussed enough about cost basis to show you what we do at Aperam, and a mix improvement. Talking through each of our businesses, how this is going to flow through. I'm probably going to spend a little less time in stainless at Europe and alloys because the colleagues have done an excellent job in explaining what we are trying to do there. The one point I'd like to leave you with on stainless Europe in addition to what Bernard has mentioned, is the fact that, sometimes you look at that small quadrant, which says organic growth and you say, "Oh, that's sort of small." Especially when you look at the following pages. But the base on which this fantastic stainless Europe operation is operating upon is so large. And we are centered in Europe and in Brazil in markets where these grow with the GDP. Even this organic growth option gives us a chance to create value. Moving to Brazil. I discussed about the different portfolios, what we produce there. We do have a unique position, which we have stressed in the past. We are the only producer in Latin America. We have a local supply. Sometimes you look at the news from Brazil in the newspapers and you think, "Oh, this is a huge risk." However, you have to understand Aperam's operation. And Aperam, like I said, we are the only producer in Latin America, but at the same time, also have a substantial part of our cost base in Brazil. What that means is that in case of unfortunately, like it was between 2015 and 2020, weak growth times, the Brazilian reais devalues and that helps us in our cost base. And when the markets get stronger, which is when the Brazilian reais strengthens, we are in an industry which is supplying consumers, washing machines, fridges. So the growth helps our Brazil operation. So there is a certain stability inherent in the model there, which we build upon and we continuously develop. I've talked about the different investments. And for us, Brazil is still a market where we see a natural growth in the GDP. Now stainless is a very GDP-coupled product, as you've understood, and as the GDP of a country grows, stainless consumption increases. Most of you are from Europe, and you are -- I'm sure you've seen in the past that your cars had exhaust pipes, which are more made out of regular steel and they would rust and fall down or your washing machines had cold-rolled drums. But as GDP growth continues and people want to invest in long life products, they move to stainless steel. Today, most of your washing machines have stainless drums, right? So this is a simple example of how it's combined to GDP. And I spoke about private consumption there, but there is also the industrial part, right, where the GDP increases, energy consumption increases and the whole industrial infrastructure requires stainless to support it, too. So that's why we see Brazil definitely for us in midterm as a growth market. Moving to Services & Solutions. I hope we have a chance to discuss this in the future as well. But just a couple of notes. Aperam has the largest B2B platform in the entire industry. For us, our S&S division is a unique differentiator. It gives us a chance in the best case to stay in touch with our customer but also give us a chance to create value by supplying granular volumes in a highly distributed industry. We offer shorter lead times, take care of opportunities when they arise, and we continuously extend our product lines. We see a lot of organic growth opportunities here. And one important thing in S&S is that it is a very CapEx-light division. And lastly, I come to alloys, and I think Frederic's explained that perfectly so that you probably have no questions on alloys. And if you do, we'll answer probably at the end of the presentation. So I'm going to skip this part. What does that translate on a bottom line basis? As a group, we believe that the leadership journey significantly strengthens our earnings power. In a normalized market environment, whichever that can be in the future, we believe that we have sustainably created an opportunity to add at least EUR 300 million in value, and that's our plan. This comes from footprint, alloys growth, the mix, growth in Brazil and mix in Brazil, ELG and the distribution. Now this is something, which I would let you look at and see what is your normal word. But I hope we presented you today a plan to show how does the additional value-add on this normal word from Aperam you look like? Lastly, I just want to leave you with the, as we CFOs call it, the business case slide, why do you want to invest in Aperam. First thing, we have a vision, but hopefully, we could demonstrate that we also have a plan, how to grow Aperam into a more profitable, cash-generative and a resilient company. You've seen my colleagues today, you've heard them, and I can speak for the rest of the team, the top leadership team, I was amazed when I joined that has a combined total of 250 years of stainless and steel experience, the 10 people on top. But it's not just the people on top. Throughout the organization, we have people who are dedicated, who actually care for this company, who've been in this company for several years and generations come into this company. And this company has shown a track record and this team has shown a track record, as Tim has demonstrated in the beginning of this presentation. Third, our focus on balance sheet. That is something which you've seen all my colleagues mention it. It is not just a CFO topic at Aperam, makes my job easier, but at the same time also shows you what kind of a company we are. It will be our cornerstone going forward as well. Value creation is our USP. We are a company, which has had a demonstrated track record over the last 10 years. But in the grand scheme of things, we are a company which is starting out to prove its potential in the market. And we believe our USP among the different metals companies is that even in a low cycle, earn money and use that money to pay our shareholders, like we demonstrated in 2020, to pay our base dividend. This we do. We have strict discipline in capital allocation and a clear execution on projects. Bernard showed you the goal for CRM 5 investment, record time. If you leave out the COVID-related delays where people could not work on it, 15 months for such a complex project. That's where the core of our execution strength lies. Fifth, we don't talk about this a lot outside our company, but it's a core leadership principle, agility. We develop our people based on their value agility. A good plan is good until the first moment it gets executed. So we believe agility is at the core of what we do, how we move, how we react to markets, how we develop new trends. And we are always at the forefront trying to push things. Frederic presented a presentation in which he spoke about how he has alloys in turbochargers. When we saw that the demand on turbochargers were coming down in alloys, this division completely reinvented itself and actually started producing products to go into LED screens, all of your laptops, all of your screens, cars, wherever you get into. That's what Aperam stands for in the short and midterm, agility. And last, but the most important is that we believe our products will serve the future, our customers, in the future. Now I may leave you with a sentence, think about it. You've today heard from us, a company, which is present in the most mature, stable stainless market in the world, growing at a stable pace in Europe, but at the constant forefront of innovation for new technologies. But we are also present in a market and one -- the only stainless player with this focus also where there is enough growth due to GDP in Brazil. We are also a player which is present in stainless where the products go into cars, into domestic appliances, into construction equipment into buildings, but we also have specialized alloys where materials are sold in kilos and not in tonnes. We are also present, like you visited yesterday, we are a company which has the flexibility to be in a steel mill, produce in a steel mill, but we also have distribution networks close to the customers, serving a few tonnes or sometimes even in square meters all over the world. We strongly believe that this is a company, which has a lot of opportunities and a lot of options. And we believe you've got a glimpse into it today. And that brings us to the end of this presentation. I would suggest that we have a coffee break, and everybody gets back at 11:30 or 11:29 to help us, and we can take the questions. Thank you. [Break]
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveHello, and welcome back, everybody, to our final session, the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Alain?
Alain William
analystHi, everybody. I'm Alain William from ODDO BHF. Thanks for the presentation and the site visit. I have 3 questions, if I may. First, on the EUR 300 million EBITDA uplift you are projecting for 2025. We know what will come from nickel alloys and from the consolidation of ELG. But could you give us more color on the phasing of that uplift and more granularity in particular for stainless in Europe, namely with the ramp-up at Genk. If we can have more idea on that? And second question, can you give us a sense of the overall CapEx required for the next 4 years at group level, just to have an idea? And third question, if I may, on the ELG transaction. Where are you in the process? If you can just give us an update on the process, the regulatory process? And also the fact that you have given a EUR 55 million EBITDA indication through the cycle. So what sort of spot level should we have in mind when ELG is consolidated?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. Thank you, Alain, for the question. So we must -- to be clear in the EUR 300 million. So we have put this EUR 300 million as the consequence of what we are doing versus the average of '16, '18. This is a base of what is a market. And then you have to take in mind that we have the Leadership Journey 3, the Leadership Journey 4 and ELG. This is clear in all our presentation how the progressive leadership journey are giving results. Take always in mind that you have always to consider the leadership journey at a run rate at the end of the period. So for example, when you have the EUR 223 million at the end of 2020, this means that the position of the end of 2020 compared to the beginning of the period, which was January 2018 or December 2017 has improved by EUR 223 million. And so you progressively see the increase of the results. This EUR 300 million is what we consider as the net-net that comes on top on the situation of the market. Net-net because some gains are always done by competition. There is some part which is, let's say, given back. But this is the net-net on which we engage compared to the base level of 2016, '18. And this will contain the ELG at the completion within the market. Now for the CapEx, I'll let Sud give you through.
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveThanks, Tim. So on the CapEx, Alain, we've given last November when we explained Leadership Journey 3, we said there's going to be a cash out of EUR 90 million for Leadership Journey 3. This consists some of the items which have been presented today as well. So I would say almost 50% of that items were presented in the figures today. So the sum of the numbers, which we have presented today, plus 50% of the number, which we did in November, and there is yet to do some CapEx numbers for Brazil as well, which we are designing and negotiating, which we are not yet ready to announce, but I'm sure you'll understand that when we get to that because AOD Genk, the investment in alloys and in Brazil are Leadership Journey 5 investments, right? So it's 2024. So we are still working on that. When that happens, you'll get a number, but I think you have something to work with, with all the numbers presented today and what's still pending, right? Keep in mind that our CapEx has been EUR 80 million, in terms of regular maintenance EUR 80 million to EUR 85 million. And on top of that, you have the strategic improvement CapEx, which comes on, just to keep that in mind. So that's one question. And the other one you asked was about ELG, right? So the ELG EUR 55 million EBITDA is through the cycle number. So back then, and ELG still doesn't belong to us. So the way we look at it is this is a through-the-cycle number. Now let's see when the closing happens, how the company is we can sit together and work plans. What we have concretely given on top of the EUR 55 million through-the-cycle number is a minimum EUR 24 million in synergies. So that's a good way to look at it through the cycle, how ELG numbers. Does that help you? Thank you. Next question, please.
Frank Claassen
analystFrank Claassen, Degroof Petercam. A question on the energy and electricity prices in Europe. They are really moving up at the moment. How are you dealing with that? And maybe related to that, yes, seen here, solar screens, wind mills. Do you have some kind of targets how self-sufficient you are trying to be on the energy side?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. I think, Bernard, you can present something which because this is mostly in Europe that you are focusing.
Bernard Hallemans
executiveI guess -- yes, is this working? So concerning how we deal with energy, indeed, energy prices are rising everywhere in Europe these days. We have a very agile way to look at energy going forward. And so we try to also cover ourselves, anticipating market evolution, and we do it in a very flexible way. So there is not one rigid policy. I think it's a day-to-day business to optimize energy not consumption only, but also the price paid going forward. Now as you say, the best energy policy that we can have is first to consume less. And I think I've shown you many examples, and Frederic has also touched it. We have this ongoing everywhere in Aperam to reduce our consumption because every kilowatt-hour that we don't consume, we don't have to buy. And then indeed, where we can, to create our own energy. And I think the Genk plant is a very good example of where we want to go and how far we could try to go. And we are actually rolling out and you -- if you look outside, you can see the work ongoing every day. We are rolling out today the second biggest solar park in this plant in Belgium. So it will be more than 50,000 solar panels installed on this plant. Already on the roofs they have been installed, you are not able to see them. The parking lot, which is just next to this building will be completely covered. And this will generate an amount of energy that we will fully absorb. It will not make us self-sufficient by far but this kind of initiatives are being rolled out in the company on our own plant premises, also in the neighborhood, to go to a maximum self-sufficiency. I can't give you yet a final number because we are working still on a lot of projects, but we are clearly maximizing the potential that we can acquire there.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. Question on M&A. Where do you see most opportunities? Is it maybe adding scrap or maybe in the alloys business? Where do you see room for add-on M&A?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo I think that on M&A, we have the agility and the possibility to do what we want to improve the business. But the question is what is interesting for us. What has been interesting for us is to continue to develop this circular economy. We are investing in ELG. We strongly believe this is the future. We have invested in alloys. You have seen the 2 plants, which are in Asia. And we strongly believe that being a producer in Asia, in China, in India, it is an upside for the alloys. Of course, we will not disclose here any of the other initiatives, but you can understand that our focus on being light in the debt is due to the fact that every opportunity, which is -- which can be external, but also internal because the organic growth or this, let's say, investment that we have done here in Genk or the solar panels or whatever we will do will lead us to consider the best investment for the company. So we are open. We cannot give you a clear guidance on what will be the next step. Let's conclude the first one, which is ELG. We are really happy with this one. And we -- I hope we will soon come there and show you what it is about.
Björn Glück
analystBjörn here from Lupus Alpha. I was just wondering, you're producing the, like, greenest steel around the world or, like, stainless steel around the world. Do you have any initiatives or do you see anything in the market that they are willing to pay a premium on this deal from your customers? Is there any way to kind of track this deal in the future with any technology so that you kind of get a bit more rewarded for your efforts in this area?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveThank you for the question. It's a very important question. We have to know that being green means being more expensive and investing more. That's clear. Now the market has not been used to consider the benefit of the green. Of course, when you propose to a customer for the same price I have the greenest steel, they take you, okay? But it's too easy. Now the new initiatives are in 2 sense: First, there should be more, let's say, understanding from the consumers that green has more value than dirt. And this is a full, let's say, society problem and is increasingly in the behavior of some customers, there are some initiatives for which some customers are starting to say, "Okay, we ask for the greenest stainless steel or a greenest solution, and we are eventually ready to give you the preference, maybe a premium." Second should be regulatory because there should be a level play field. We cannot continue to have the imports at 4x, 5x content of CO2 showing the same price without any incentive to decrease the CO2 emission, okay? The European Commission is doing well in saying, "Okay, you as a European, you have to stick and you have to go, you have a target, you have to respect the target." Okay. That's okay. But should be -- there should be a level play field. And this is what is about the carbon border adjustment, which is in discussion. We are at a very, very preliminary discussion, to be honest. But I'm a strong believer that this is the way that the world will go with agreements between -- within states for a better, let's say, world in the future. We cannot escape to that. So the work is ongoing, and let's hope that the commission will be, let's say, a catalyst for the acceleration of that.
Unknown Analyst
analystFrom [ DZ Bank ]. Asia is a huge market and you are already active there in China and India. Do you intend to expand your business more in that region?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. I think being in Asia means what, mean create value in Asia also. And so I don't believe that today, commodities are the way of going to Asia. But I think that Frederic explained for value products, this can be. Maybe Fred, you can add something.
Frederic Mattei
executiveYes, definitely, this can be an area with -- which would be very interesting for value-added products. And also, we have to keep in mind that, as I said, the -- this market has to be understood on the global point of view, including for our customers. And we also have customers who are developing themselves in India or China and who are looking for similar solutions at what they get, for instance, in Europe. So there are different aspects. There is a market which is going here, and there is also some partners, which we are already working on, who are expecting us to be their partners also there. So altogether, definitely makes a potential for the value-added products in Asia in general.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. So I'll read some questions that came from the webcast. The first 2 are from Christian Georges from Societe Generale. Questions -- first question is on the slab capacity in Europe and he asks Aperam's slab capacities, 2 million tonnes, but hot-rolling capacity is 2.8 million tonnes at Châtelet. Are we running at just 2 million tonnes? Or are we buying external slab to reach 2.8 million tonnes? And do we think about increasing slab capacity?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveMaybe Bernard can answer the question.
Bernard Hallemans
executiveYes. Thank you for the question. The answer to the question is clearly flexibility. I've shown you that we have a very flexible footprint. Today, our slab capacity is well adjusted to our downstream capacity. And indeed, this hot [ trip ] mill, this hot-rolling mill has a nameplate overcapacity, but we have organized it in such a way that for the same cost, so being very flexible on cost, we operate this mill today to absorb the 2 million tonnes capacity that we have in slab. So we don't have a need to fill it to become competitive, and we have the flexibility, if need be, to have more capacity available as an opportunity.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo the next question from Christian is related to the A&S competitive landscape. Looking at the competitive landscape in A&S, there seem to be many potential targets, is M&A the best way forward for the alloys business?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveI think Frederic can take it.
Frederic Mattei
executiveI think as you have seen, our plan is mainly organic-growth-driven, which doesn't mean that there is no opportunity in M&A. So again, it's a question of opportunities. It's a question of finding the appropriate project. But M&A could be an option, which is not in our plan for the moment. But it's not -- it's not a question which we have discarded by -- from the start. Maybe, Tim, if you want to add.
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo I think that as usual, we consider our cash and our opportunity in the most agile way and with a very strict focus on value creation, M&A, our organic growth alternatives. We see today that we have the second biggest operator in the world for alloys. We have seen that it's difficult, the consolidation in Europe. We believe that there is growth in Asia. We believe that we have the potential, the skills to grow. We have the capacity to start a project. We have, for example, just doubled the capacity to supply in China, [ of course ], for the cars. These are components which are used in the car to measure the torque. And so this is typically for the -- to -- for the pilot. So all this can be done, and we will do this faster, faster because we strongly believe in the value of these products, and we believe in the potential of growth of this sector.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. The next 2 questions come from Ioannis Masvoulas from Morgan Stanley. The first one is on ESG. Can you provide more color on the 2030 decarbonization initiatives, especially the natural gas substitution?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. So here, we have -- it is clear in the slide that you have seen that we have 2 challenge. One is electricity and the other one is natural gas. So the natural gas has a substitution, typically electricity but not only -- but all the economy that you can do in recycling the heat from the plants. And we are working exactly on this. So our furnaces will be progressively evolving from natural gas to electricity. This is the first step. The second step -- big step is to reduce the consumption and use the energy, recycling the energy. Only a third step, but this is not for the next few years, which will give -- the further potential will be the use of hydrogen. But when hydrogen will be available as green because not -- there is no sense in using nitrogen, which in itself has a carbon content, which is similar to the one of natural gas. There is a small potential between 2. There are some biogas that can reduce the content of the energy, but this probably is still temporary as a solution and it is only part of the solution. It's clear that one which we have already launched, we are sure that we will reach the target that we have in our chart. So the reduction by 30% of the CO2 by 2030 is clear. The way to 0 carbon is a little bit longer. It contains hydrogen, of course, and so we'll take more years.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo Ioannis' second question is on the free cash flow projection. Does the 2025 free cash flow projection also include improvement in growth CapEx? Or is it purely based on less than EUR 100 million maintenance CapEx?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSud, you take.
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveYes. So the 2025 includes all CapEx, which we have shown today for growth and improvement CapEx as well and also some potential CapEx from ELG if that happens.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo there is a set of question from Patrick Mann from Bank of America. The first 2 are related to the footprint initiatives. And the question is, looking at the footprint upgrades, for example, the Châtelet hot-rolling mill capability extension, are these upgrades unique technology to upfront? And is this a sustainable advantage? Or can anyone else buy the equipment as well?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveBernard?
Bernard Hallemans
executiveWell, if we talk about the hot-rolling mill initiative, I think it's important to notice that we have an asset today which is very much optimized to produce stainless steels. And so the add-on that we put on this hot-rolling mill is not, I would say, as such -- it is not as such possible to copy it to any other hot-rolling mill in stainless. I'll just give you a very clear example. We produce stainless up to 2 meters wide. There are only very few producers who can do that and who have the hot-rolling mill able to do that. So it is not just a plug-and-play solution that we will put in this hot-rolling mill and that anyone can insert in their own assets. Next question, please.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo the next question is also on the footprint but in the opposite direction. By reducing the number of tools and simplifying the footprint, are you giving up any capabilities? Are you narrowing your product focus significantly and at least some part of the market up to competitors or importers?
Bernard Hallemans
executiveI will take the question. The answer is clearly no. It would go absolutely against what I've tried to explain in my presentation. We are enriching mix, and we are not leaving out or throwing away part of what we do today. In every footprint move we make -- and I take the example of the Genk footprint which is ramping up today, we are transferring some products from one tool to a more performance tool. We will only shut down a core tool or an asset in our asset base when all the homologations, all the transfer certainties thereabout, quality of the new tool who is producing. And thereby, we provide maximum continuity and perfect continuity, I would say, to our customers.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo the third question from Patrick Mann is on the mix improvement. Why do you think there is only a short window of opportunity for investing into a substantial mix improvement?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo maybe the wording is being a little bit misled. We see that some trends are accelerating. And to capture the full value of this trend, we must be fast. And this is what is happening. We are doing something extremely fast to be sure to be those -- which will develop these products, also because these products have a high level of technical complexity that you develop with customers. And so if you really want to capture the value, you should be in the first phase when you develop with customers. Then over the year, this can commoditize or can be of a lower value for a customer or even decrease in -- there could be another solution. So the more specialized products have a life, and you capture the maximum life at the beginning. So this is why in our target is to have the maximum extent of the capabilities. Frederic has explained why we are moving part of the production from Imphy to Gueugnon to 3 capacity, enlarge the capabilities of the existing tools in Imphy and have the possibility to provide products which were not existing or were out of the capability immediately when the need exists or even develop a need with customers. This is what we wanted to explain in a short window. It means agility and being fast and having the capability and the flexibility, the reserve of capability and capacity to serve the customer.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. Patrick's final question is on cost leadership. Does targeting cost leadership in Europe give Aperam a sustainable competitive position? Isn't this competing for second price? Or can you compete against nickel pig iron stainless imports with the current trade barrier structures?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveDe facto is what is happening. De facto -- the European Commission has found Indonesia competing with dumping behavior and has put antidumping duties. So this has been happened -- this has happened at the beginning of the last year with hot-rolled. It's happening with the cold-rolled. The markets are different. So the markets are continuously moving up and down, but fundamentally, in a level playfield, we are competing against Indonesia and with, let's say, premium for our quality for our service, for the proximity of customers. They have an advantage, which is the integration of raw material. Of course, there is an advantage. You integrate raw material. You have the value that is the integration of raw material. And especially, if raw material are extremely high, this gives you an advantage. We are integrating our raw material, which are scrapped. And this will constitute, in the long term, the competitive advantage because at a certain point in time, the production of nickel pig iron should be seen as the production of the most polluting raw material existing in the world. And this has to be taken in account. Taking this in account, I think in the long term, there will be a better view on the real competitiveness of the different producer in the world.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveThe next 2 questions come from Rochus Brauneiser from Kepler Cheuvreux. The first question is related to the environmental targets. Why is Aperam not more ambitious regarding timing of carbon neutrality? What are the biggest technical roadblocks for getting there?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo I tried to explain before, we are ambitious. We have discounted an ambition that was -- which arrived early, very early, okay? When we have done the move to go from coke to charcoal in Brazil, this was -- we were a first-mover. We are the only one who use only charcoal in the production by blast furnace and being natural there. So it is -- we are discounting the fact that all Aperam was already there. We have been the first, and Recyco is something that we have created in 2002. So we have launched the initiative. Now the new initiative, as I said, were -- are around the use of electricity and the substitution of natural gas. And the substitution of natural gas, as I said, is also depending on the availability of hydrogen, and this will take some time. But our targets are ambitious.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveThe next question from Rochus are on Brazil. The first one is, are there any meaningful issues for the Timoteo plant due to the lack of hydropower in Brazil?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveNo.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveThe second one, also related to Brazil, to what extent have the eucalyptus forest been impacted by weather extremes in Brazil?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveThere is no impact, in fact, for both. We have, of course, some energy spike but we have also long-term contracts. So this is good, and it has to be said that the majority of the energy in Brazil, in the plant, is self-generated. This means that our dependency on the grid is very low, and this is why I said no immediately. And the second, forest, no, we have not had any particular problem. On the contrary when there is a lot of work, it is good in general for the forest. And we have -- we are in a region which has not shown any kind of problems there.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo the next question comes from Krishan Agarwal from Citi, and it's a very specific alloys question. You mentioned that you supply alloys materials to desalination plants, water desalination plants. In that regard, how are you positioned to supply material to some of the big projects announced by big mining companies mainly in South America?
Frederic Mattei
executiveWhat I mentioned in -- as alloys for desalination is one example among what we are doing. So first point, of course, we are very much looking at the different projects which are coming up in the world, in every industry which we are targeting. And this is one area where we are targeting our efforts. So yes, we are looking closely at all the opportunities, including those related to some desalination plants.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. Maybe we'd give it a second round in the room, see if there's any questions in the room. Everybody seems to be happy here. So I have 2 more questions in the queue from the webcast. So if there's any webcast participants in need of further explanation, now might be a good time to send in your questions. And they are both from Christian Georges from Societe General. The first is a question related to the A&S and the future expected normal. Looking at the A&S future normal, is it correct to understand that you are expecting EBITDA per tonne to grow by 3x by 2025?
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveSo Christian, I don't specifically understand that chart you're referring to, but if you see the chart which I presented on each division, you'll see that, yes, there is an increase compared to the past average, but it's nowhere close to the 3x you're measuring. Maybe compared to the lowest point in the last 10 years, which you say there, that could be 3x but not to the average. So Frederic's communicated a clear number, and I think that's a clear color for you to factor that in.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveAnd the second question from Christian is related to the nickel price. What is your view on risks related to potentially higher nickel price due to battery demand? Could this lead to a higher stainless steel price impacting negatively underlying demand?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveThe question of the correlation between the demand of stainless steel and the price of nickel is a very old one. Nickel has always had the cycles, has spiked very often and has gone down also at a very low level. And we have not seen really a correlation also because typically, commodities and materials are very much correlated. So when you have a spike in nickel, there is also in aluminum. There is also in iron, et cetera. So there is no visible correlation between price. Of course, as, let's say, salesmen, I would like to propose to our customers a very cheap solution because if we had a cheap solution for stainless steel, we could do everything in the world in stainless steel. I've explained many times that any object can be done in stainless steel in most sustainable way, durable and without a benefit for the planet. The question of price is -- the nickel price compared to the battery, we are in 2 different class of products. There is some, let's say, attrition or some transfer of -- or pulling out when there is demand in 1 of the 2 markets. But fundamentally, there is a market for the raw material for stainless steel, which is scrap-based, nickel pig iron and ferronickel. And there is another market, which is the market of the pure nickel [ of the matter ] and -- which is linked to the battery. I think more and more, we will see these 2 markets as they correlated. There's a common, let's say, factor, which is LME, but in fact, LME is there to give a general trend of the raw material in the world. But at the end, the negotiation for every specific raw material is done for ferronickel, for scrap, for nickel pig iron, for the pure nickel differently.
Alain William
analystJust a follow-up question. Could you maybe give us a trading update on the demand patterns, order books, imports, inventory situation post the summer break? And also, the second question, would you be a candidate to further consolidation in the recycling industry post ELG?
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveSo Alain, thank you for your question. Let me take the one on trading update. So when we came out end of Q2 and we announced the numbers and we gave a forecast how summer is going to look over the next months and we, in fact, did a few months longer than what we usually do as well, there has been no surprises, positive or negative. So the market is exactly as we expected. Demand has come back. Demand is there, right? The price has been influenced by the trade defense measures which have been announced. So it's exactly like we presented at the end of the Q2 chart. There's been no change. And do you want to take question on the...
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo firstly is the closing. We are not officially the owner of ELG, okay? Second, you know that before closing -- before thinking at new consolidation, whatever it is, the first and most important point is that we see a huge potential in ELG. This huge potential is explained by 2 factors. One, there are synergies. We have clearly communicated and we are confident on the fact that this synergy, this EUR 24 million, are a solid base to start immediately, and we will collect them very soon. The second is that we have a culture of leadership journey. And the good is that we will see potential also for implementing the mindset of leadership journey also in a larger footprint, which is the footprint of ELG. On the other hand, they have also a lot of logic. They have a lot of entrepreneurship in this company. We have seen people managing small businesses everywhere in the world, even exporting to even, let's say, optimizing the alloys, et cetera, having long-term contracts with customers, et cetera. So all this has a value that we have to extract. Then maybe one day, we will think if there is any sense to consolidate. For the moment, I don't see the sense. ELG is large enough and is extremely interesting and has a big potential for us. So we will focus on that.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo there's more questions from the webcast. Rochus Brauneiser from Kepler Cheuvreux has sent in 3 more questions. The first is, how long do you expect it will take to convert Aperam's EU electricity supplies to 100% renewable?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveBernard, you want to take?
Bernard Hallemans
executiveSo I think we have to look at the question in 2 ways. First part is, as I said already, decreased electricity consumption and then generate our own electricity to a maximum extent. Then comes the question for what we buy and how far will what we buy be completely coming out of renewable. I don't have the answer personally today because this depends on the evolution on the energy generation market on which there is still a lot of debate. So we will actually always be pushing to purchase where renewable comes from, and we are going to extend our initiatives in this direction. But of course, we are also depending on how the market is structured. I don't know if Tim or Sud want to add something.
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveIt's correct.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveThe next question from Rochus is on the hydrogen industry. Can you quantify the stainless steel potential from the evolution of the hydrogen industry in Europe?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveFrankly, no, because I think it is very big -- it's huge because -- can you imagine the day where hydrogen will be the basis and we replace nearly all the energy that are today used with natural gas, et cetera. It is huge. It is very high potential. So we don't know. We don't know also how much, and there is a challenge in the world between the electrical vehicles with battery and electrical vehicles with fuel cell with advantages in the 2 cases. There are the big transport also. Just -- I've seen that Alstom has presented its train with the hydrogen and fuel cell. So this is fantastic because this means that even for train, if you go for this, the acceleration will be huge. So we know that there is a huge acceleration first. We know the technology. We are there. We are, let's say, starting with many customers. I think we have something like 20 or 25 partnership to work with people in finding a solution in terms of material, et cetera, but it will take some years before assessing the real potential.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. Then there is a couple of questions on the automotive industry. So the first is from Rochus at Kepler, but a similar -- very similar question was also asked from Luke Nelson from JPMorgan. And the question is how much of Aperam's auto exposure is related to exhaust systems. And how much is related to EV-specific applications? And then we go on with what is the stainless steel intensity per car today and in the future?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveSo there are different parts. When you see the exposure of Aperam to the automotive, it's in -- around 15%, but this 15% contains all the applications, which are not only in the exhaust. The only part that we do for the thermal, let's say, engine, it has relevant volumes. The most important is the exhaust. The exhaust will remain until the hybrid will -- hybrid car will be there. But in the same time, what is growing fast in the electrical vehicle is all the battery cases, which is a subject -- the subject also of security because -- remember always that stainless steel has property which are extremely useful when you want to keep safe an environment from the fire because they're resistant to fire. So the moment at which the stainless steel decrease the mechanical property [ in front of the ] temperature is much higher than any other competitive materials. So for this, there is a huge potential for stainless steel to be in all these kind of applications, which are at high temperature and typically the battery case. And second, there is the fuel cells in which you find stainless steel. So the motors will change. The application will change. We are preparing. And in particular, the footprint in Gueugnon with Pont-de-Roude is preparing us to be sure that we have the capabilities for this kind of product.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveOkay. The next question from Luke Nelson from JPMorgan is related to the European ETS system. And he asks, on the guidance of being fully covered under the EU ETS until 2030, does this include the proposed increase in maximum reduction factor for EAFs from 2026 to '30?
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveYes, it includes.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveAnd then his next question is a more broader question related to the apparent consumption for stainless. You gave some qualitative views on growth. Can you relate that views -- what those views are for market growth for stainless in Europe and Brazil, for example, relative to GDP?
Sudhakar Sivaji
executiveSo typically, for us, it's very highly correlated with GDP. So we take GDP growth for these figures. So on Europe, it's on an average base of about 2% point. And in Brazil, it's about double that figure in the past few years with a lot more potential.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo our final question comes from Patrick Mann, Bank of America, again. And it's a question on Alloys & Specialties. How should we think about pricing in A&S. The more value-add the product, the more the price is decoupled from raw material costs? Are raw material costs even a meaningful driver for A&S pricing? Why is this or isn't it?
Frederic Mattei
executiveCan you please repeat the end of the question?
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveYes. Are raw material costs even a meaningful driver for A&S pricing? And why should that be the case or not?
Frederic Mattei
executiveAgain, the pricing of alloys is based on the value of the product. So the pricing is very much related to how much we put added value, how much we put -- we bring a solid, robust solution for the customers. So there is -- of course, the alloys are made of raw materials, which are expensive raw material, but at the end, what drives the pricing for this business is definitely how well we make the adequation between the commercial offer we make to the customers, including the product itself but service, technical support, anything which is also linked to the partnerships you can have. So this is one -- these are the elements which are driving the pricing for this type of products.
Thorsten Zimmermann
executiveSo we don't have any more questions. So I hand back to our CEO, Tim Di Maulo for some concluding remarks.
Timoteo Di Maulo
executiveOkay. Thank you very much because I spent a very good moment with you here. So after COVID, it's clear that an event is something new and something which is pleasant to find back. It is also a very special moment for us because, as I said, we are, let's say, celebrating our 10 years. These 10 years that has been done, you see by a company that I hope you have felt how diverse we are in term of kind of business. We have farmers, a lot of farmers. We have people in the recycling business. We are a transformer of scrap. We have plants which are integrated. We have a lot of -- we have not discussed our distribution, but there is this that we will be happy to show you in the future. And we have a lot of diversification with alloys with very, let's say, diverse solution and components. So Aperam is diversified. And this is something which is related to the possibility of growth and to be resilient to all the cycles that are in commodities. Aperam has also a culture of executing of being focused on what are the basis of the business. We have competent people. We have a Board which is very experienced and give us the right guidance. We have done the job. In the last 10 years, we have done the job. We think that -- the result that you have seen show you that it's not by the -- it's not, let's say, lucky guys. We were in a tough environment. We have generated this EUR 3 billion cash. We have deleveraged the company. We have invested. And you see that all what we have invested is now there. It's reality. You have touched what is the new way of producing with new plants fully automated with very low cost with a lot of capability, flexibility, et cetera. And this -- in this world, this is extremely important. You have seen that we have an ambition of giving at least EUR 300 million recurrent results on top of what is the normative base. And this is supported by all what we have explained. Sometimes, we don't give the detail because it's a competitive matter, but we prefer to do. Instead of teaching you what could have been done, we do. And this is what has for me the characteristic, what is the characteristic -- the main characteristic of Aperam. We execute, we do and we will do in the next years. We have challenges and we have opportunities. The challenge of ESG are well under our hands. We will maintain our focus and being a leader in this. We will convince our customer that there is a benefit for all the community to buy our products with a low content of CO2. And in the same time, we'll continue to focus on where can we develop with the fastest speed that we can have because of our agility and also because of our resources. All this for the benefit of all stakeholders, including, of course, all our investors and all the people, which are listening to us. Thank you very much, and I'm very happy to have seen you, and I hope that we'll have a new event very soon. And stay safe. Bye.
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