Aptiv PLC ($APTV)

Why don't we get started and maybe people will come in after. Yes, I'm happy to kick off the -- actually the first section, mostly autos today on this track with Aptiv, we have Kevin Clark, the CEO; and Varun Laroyia, the CFO. Following the [ spin ] Versigent, Aptiv is now a much cleaner connector play with active safety and user experience and more focused on really the secular growth areas. And the strong underlying growth profile is really one of the drivers of our overweight rating on the stock. I think we just did our navigator report looking at all the different parts of the vehicle, and there's just really a few parts of the car that are actually growing. It's pretty tough for suppliers, and you guys are focused on some of those key growth areas.

So maybe to kick it off, as I mentioned, you do have the spin. How should investors think about the company with the refocus on the new business divisions? And what do you think is important going forward with that transformation?

Sure. So first, thanks for having us here. We really appreciate it. When we look at our -- the spin, the rationale for the spin and the resulting strategy for, I'll call it, the New Aptiv, to a certain extent, our underlying strategy hasn't really changed, right? We're very much focused on participating in those trends that are driven by more automation, more electrification, more digitalization. I would say New Aptiv is better positioned from a portfolio standpoint to pursue those opportunities, obviously, in automotive, but outside of automotive because we have positions in areas like A&D, telecom, datacom, diversified industrial. So we have a fairly solid platform, both on the intelligent systems side as well as the engineer component side from which we can leverage and grow. And as more of product businesses versus the Versigent business tends to be more of a program business, but more as a product business. It uniquely positions us to combine our product portfolio and go to customers in the A&D space, go to customers in the robotics space. Go to customers in the telecom space and build upon our strong position in areas that are higher margin tend to be higher growth and are earlier in the stage of benefiting or being impacted by the trends of automation, electrification, digitalization. And a couple -- great examples would be in the A&D space. For example, we talk about drones. And there's a lot of activity that we have in and around the drone sector. Our unique portfolio from a software stack standpoint from the real-time operating system on up to actually our future development when you look at our perception systems, whether they be camera vision based or they'd be radar-based, you look at our advanced compute. You look at our high-speed cable assemblies and our high-speed interconnects. Those are all solutions that have applications in that particular product area. And then you overlay on top of it, what we do every day from an industrialization from a supply chain management standpoint and importantly, taking costs out of bill of materials on a regular basis. It provides us a very unique position to bring real benefits to those sectors, especially those areas where they're earlier stage.

And to remind people, it's 24% is non-auto of the current portfolio post-spin with 10% being commercial truck, being broader industrial.

Yes. So about -- yes, 24%, 25% is nonautomotive. 10 points of that is commercial vehicle. The balance is in the A&D and telecom, datacom space. That nonautomotive sector is growing high single digits. So it's a faster-growing area at this point in time. And as I mentioned, Colin, we feel like we're well positioned to take real advantage of the trend in those markets.

Maybe just getting through some of the more maintenance questions. I mean any color on how the quarter is trending production. I think we've seen S&P cut their forecast. Is that a risk at all?

Yes. I think we should first start with explaining the S&P forecast. We operate off of customer schedules. Long term, we look at sources like S&P or IHS. I think the IHS adjustment was really a macro adjustment as they looked at what's going on in the Middle East, the conflict and the implications that, that could have for supply chains, cost of vehicles and ultimately, demand. So that's the position they took. We're comfortable with our guidance. We're watching the market closely, just given the dynamics again in the Middle East and some of the news that we were talking about just prior to our meeting. So we're watching it closely. There have been some puts and some takes, quite frankly, from an overall customer mix. So that's something that we'll continue to watch very closely. But sitting here today, we're comfortable with it. I don't know if Varun has anything to add.

When you say puts and takes on customer mix, what are you referring to?

Some customers are slightly stronger production. Some customers are slightly weaker.

But for you, that's sort of a neutral factor you're still watching...

It's something we manage through.

I think the only other final piece, actually, Kevin, that you kind of remind me is from a year ago, where the overall trade policy elements were still being worked out. So from a year ago in the second quarter with the tariffs being announced in the first quarter a year ago, there was some level of conservatism, I'd say, just to kind of see as to how things would settle out. We don't have that conservatism built in as of now. So it's a very realistic set of guidance and numbers that we provided out there. We're pretty open in terms of the framework as to how we deal with the various puts and takes. So no real update at this point in time.

And one of the big questions coming out of last quarter was the guide is sort of 1% growth in the first half, but 6% to 7% in the second half. Can you remind us of what are the big puts to get you there? And are those all still on track, obviously?

Yes. Listen, great point. Essentially we had three key elements in that. The first is just in terms of first half to second half with regards to the underlying global vehicle production, right? And that adds about 100 basis points to the overall uptick from the first half to the second half on a year-over-year basis, right? So that's point number one. The second one we called out was about 150 basis points of just customer supplier fire, for example, that we've called out in the past, I think that's out there in the public domain, but also the annualization or the anniversarying of three programs in China with two different OEMs, which essentially anniversary by the end of the second quarter, right? So that's 150 basis points. That's basically not debatable because it's just math, right? So the 100 basis points I mentioned, GDP, 150 basis points on the couple of points I mentioned here. The final one really is about 300 basis points of launches and ramps, right, that's coming through. But to be clear, these aren't -- these are largely kind of launches that have already begun. So it's basically a ramp going into the second half. So we have good insight in terms of how those programs are tracking. And that's, again, across both of our segments, Engineered Components and also Intelligent Systems.

And if we go half over half, I think it's something like $260 million in sales and $160 million in EBITDA. So it's a pretty high conversion. What are the drivers of that?

Again, listen, the first point, in fact, the single biggest point really is flow-through on revenue. If you kind of go post spin, the incremental margin is roughly about 26 to 27 points on the incremental revenue. So that's kind of point number one. The second point is just strong operating performance because we've been working through as part of the spin, looking at structural cost improvements, right? And it's a playbook that we have worked through for a long, long time in any case. So just working that playbook through. The final point really is if you think about where the FX and commodities impact was a year ago in the second half to this time around, that begins to flatten out a little bit, okay? So those are kind of the three key points, and that's why we feel comfortable about the first half, second half margin move up also.

I guess moving more thematically, you recently announced that you have a partnership with NVIDIA, which is obviously a pretty important company these days. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about it. I think it -- was it a production-ready Edge AI. So what does that involve? How extensive is your relationship with NVIDIA?

Sure. So we've worked with NVIDIA at Aptiv. I think said 2017 was the first program. It was actually an ADAS controller program for VW. So at Aptiv, we go pretty far back. On the Wind River side, Wind River has had a relationship with NVIDIA as well for a number of years. When you look at the more recent agreement, we're very much aligned in terms of our view on AI at the edge and the opportunity across multiple markets. We have a strong view on that NVIDIA certainly does. The partnership is really about how do we take our software stack, how do we put it on their silicon and then how do we go across multiple markets and sell that solution? And how do we do it across multiple NVIDIA technologies in a joint commercialization effort. So that's the real focus. We think there's big opportunities, as I mentioned, on Edge AI. We think there's a big opportunity opportunities on the 5G to 6G transition. And then more broadly speaking, just across industrial applications.

And this is Wind River type technology?

This is Aptiv and Wind River. So it's everything from the Middleware, real-time operating system, VxWorks, the Helix Hypervisor to a portion of the Aptiv software stack.

Does it -- is it just a tech partnership at this point? Or is it actually going to drive revenue?

Actually will drive revenue.

What kind of products it's -- like what kind of software it's going on to?

It's everything -- like I said, it's everything from Aptiv Middleware to Wind River VxWorks and Hypervisor to some of our features as it relates to vision and other perception technologies.

Okay. I think you signed your third robotics partnership. Any color on when this starts becoming a real contributor and what kind of investments?

Yes. So the level of interest is extremely high. We have a number of I call them, proof of concept that are also transitioning to commercial opportunities now across the humanoid and AMR space. We're more focused on AMRs transparently than we are in the humanoid space, just given our view on maturity of the technology and the applications. So we're working with a number of players, confident in the second half of this year, we'll have announcements as it relates to commercial awards in that space. And that should translate to revenue either late this year or beginning early next year. On the drone side, a significant amount of interest, similar situation in terms of proof of concept. I would say closer to commercial opportunity in those discussions in that particular space, just given the nature of the product. When you think about the perception system, so whether it be vision or radar when you think about compute, when you think about the software stack and you think about our interconnect portfolio, high-speed cable assemblies, all those sorts of things that enable performance and something like that. A big content per unit opportunity and a high-volume opportunity. I should say the second thing across those two markets that we talked about is a real focus on resiliency of our supply chain. It's fully mapped. We can identify where products are sourced from our suppliers down to in some areas, 7 or 8 levels down. So having clear visibility where products come from, where they're manufactured, where they're sourced from, the ability to industrialize solutions. So high performance and reduce costs. Those are areas of significant interest and just ability to scale in light of the volumes that are being forecasted in those areas. With those manufacturers, whether they be U.S.-based or European-based with dedicated supply chain.

Got it. How about I think probably the most popular question I've been getting is on sort of this shift to 800-volt data centers. How -- maybe can you talk about how does that change your competitive positioning in the data center space? How should you think about it? And what do you think your chances are on sort of winning sort of in data centers?

Yes. So we're very competitive in data centers. I think maybe there's a little bit of confusion there. And I probably created by myself. We're very competitive, but principally on the power side, right, just given our roots when you think about power distribution in a car. I believe we're on 19 of the top 20 800-volt platforms across the globe. We actually have programs with the leading global vehicle -- battery electric vehicle companies, not only on their vehicle platforms, but on their energy storage platforms. So we're well positioned for that transition. And we're getting a lot of interest from suppliers to the energy storage market or the data center market in and around power distribution for those applications. So it's a big opportunity. It's small revenues now. But we think just given our experience in automotive, given what we've done in terms of energy storage with the two leading electric vehicle manufacturers in the world, we're well positioned and have developed strong skill sets and product portfolio to benefit from that trend. I don't know if there's anything I missed.

How about we talk about the data center side of it? Because I thought the -- because today, I mean, some of the other connector players have pretty dominant positions in the data center and you have pretty limited revenue there. My understanding is the 800-volt opens it up that you could have -- your products are more competitive? Or is that a misunderstanding?

Yes. I think -- well, I think it's two things. There are players that are more competitive on the data distribution side within data centers, so data distribution. We're very capable and competitive on the power side of the business, just moving power. So there's an opportunity at 400-volt given our unique -- given the fact that we feel like we're ahead of the curve on 800-volt given what we've done from a customer mix standpoint, in automotive, that uniquely positions us as there's a transition to 800-volt. But we can play in both.

Any color on the percent of a data center connector market that's the data versus the power...

Yes, I don't have that offhand, but we can follow up with you on it.

Maybe if you could talk about new wins outside of autos, how quickly can those ramp? And I think you mentioned earlier, they're higher margin. Any color on how much...

Listen, so first of all, I think it's fair to say we're perhaps one of the first few within the industry to talk about non-auto, right, and the focus associated with that. So I just want to put that thing out there. It's not starting from kind of ground zero. We've already had a really good strong run rate, both pre-spin and post-spin for both businesses, but arguably more on the New Aptiv RemainCo side, right, with regards to non-auto. And it's across a whole series of industries, aerospace and defense, commercial space, telecom, datacom, diversified industrials. So given that kind of strong run rate we already have and the increased focus that we've put into that arena, we are seeing that 8 to 10 points top line growth. That's what we had kind of put out for our financial targets through 2028 at Investor Day last November. And then you obviously saw in the first quarter, we posted 9 points of revenue growth within that non-auto side. I will share within that 24, 25 points of revenue within New Aptiv, as Kevin mentioned, 10 of that 25 is commercial vehicles. And even out there, it's not just kind of the heavy, the HEVs, we also include some of the light commercial vehicles, right? So Class 3, Class 4, essentially think of it for some of the delivery vans across European cities, for example. Those ones we essentially would expect to grow mid-single digits, right? And so then when you kind of say the rest of the non-auto side, aerospace and defense, strong growth coming through on that front, diversified industrials. And we're kind of happy with the way that side of the business is progressing, both in terms of wins but also just the traction we are getting, this 800-volt piece that you just mentioned is relatively new. But I think that, again, opens up, given our incumbency with the 800-volt architecture, it opens up more opportunities for us, right? And then from a margin profile perspective, listen, we are making investments while the margin profile is slightly better, but we are making investments to just double down, and this relates to both the product engineering, but also kind of enhancing our go-to-market capabilities. But again, this was something that we called out when we gave guidance for 2026 in any case. That's all embedded within our guide for the full year.

I think maybe some examples, some specifics from an award standpoint, consistent with what we've talked about in the past. We'll talk about Q2 when we announce Q2 earnings. But if you think about it, when I map it out in the commercial aerospace areas. So awards -- on the interconnect side, high-speed cable assembly side, power side across the major rocket manufacturers in North America. Similarly, awards on -- for low earth orbit applications across the players that are in that space. Similarly, heavier weighted towards the EC product portfolio there. On the software side, real-time operating system awards, so VxWorks, Helix Hypervisor, Aptiv Middleware with one of the major primes for more I'll call traditional aerospace and defense applications, more defense from an application standpoint, battery energy storage awards with the leading EV manufacturer out of China as well as the leading EV manufacturer out of the United States. So those are the areas that are the most interesting in terms of -- and the most different from our traditional applications in and around automotive.

When we say 8% to 10%, what is the assumption for the market? How much over the underlying market? Because I know some of the truck markets are supposed to recover...

It's an aggregation of the various industries, end markets, right? So I gave you the 10 points of the 25 points is commercial vehicles, and that's kind of mid-single digits. But if you kind of get to an 8% to 10% corridor, that would just kind of naturally imply that some of the other end markets such as aerospace and defense, commercial space, we see growing faster than that range.

It really varies by -- it varies significantly by market. So to Varun's point, on the A&D space market outlooks there are roughly 8% plus sort of overall outlook for growth. When you look at some of the subsets that we were talking about, those are really today, markets that, from a content standpoint, roughly $5 billion of content opportunity for Aptiv growing 30% to 40% from a compounded growth rate standpoint. So very high very high. There are other markets, diversified industrials, and you look at the robotics applications depending upon where you're playing, if you're in the AMR and humanoid space. It's a higher growth rate. It tends to be in the neighborhood of about 30%. If you're in a traditional industrial space, it tends to be kind of a mid-single-digit sort of overall growth rate. So the growth rate is appealing. The margin profile is even more appealing and the ability for us to take an existing product portfolio, some modifications to the product but relatively minimal investment in go-to-market resources. So I think marketing and commercial capabilities, but not -- it's not a significant investment and being able to penetrate those markets and having high confidence in our ability to do so, it puts in a really attractive position. And like I said, in addition to that technology capability that is really important, our ability to bring our supply chain, manufacturing, quality, industrialization capabilities is we found it very unique. So we're getting a lot of pull and a lot of demand. The last piece is just the operating model, right? From an auto perspective, global footprint, the supply chain resiliency in region for region. And as you think about some of these applications, our ability to help them scale up at an auto rate, that frankly is, I'd say, very attractive given our heritage and the ability to be able to deliver that same level of scalability and quality to other end markets.

Switching a bit. Can we talk about the active safety market in China? It seems like China moves super fast, and it's been pretty shocking how they take rate in Level 2+ in China has gone through the roof. We've also seen though an emergence of China tech players in that market. So what is your view of sort of how that market works? And can you remain competitive with those new players emerging in that space?

Yes. It moves -- China market moves very fast. You're absolutely right there. Our China revenues, that will be our fastest-growing market in 2026 calendar year. And part of that is the program launches that Varun had talked about earlier, the ramp-up of those program launches. A big piece of that is ADAS. We've been in China now for 35 years for the China market. Our China team participates in the development of our global ADAS platform. So they're a big piece of our application capabilities or development and application capabilities and a big piece of it is skill set and speed. So we certainly leverage. We leverage that. We partner with China local OEMs. So our solutions tend to have -- be based on China SoCs. So we have a very strong partnership with a semiconductor company called O-Cera, local-based. We partner from a vision standpoint and with a company called Maxieye, who we actually have an investment in. And as well as Horizon Robotics. So those tend to be our vision partners. We develop systems that are almost 95% sourced with China inputs to meet what we're seeing is increasing demand from our customers in China for more resilient supply chain. And for a number of those OEMs, we're taking that technology developed in China and the stack developed in China, and we're actually making modifications were required so that they can sell solutions in Europe, for example. So Leapmotor is one. We provide them -- we're their ADAS supplier for the China market. They are focused on growing outside of China. We're launching a program this year with them that actually will have more non-China parts, non-China vision solutions to meet the demands and the regulatory requirements for the European market. So having that capability to move at speed, having the flexibility, the open architected solution that allows us to plug in different sort of solutions to meet regulatory requirements or customer preferences is really important, and we do that across the globe. So I think if you go to our OEM customers in China, they will say Aptiv operates as a local China OEM. It's not a source for low-cost source senior manufacturing. We've been there for 35 years, supporting the growth of the local market.

I think you mentioned you had sort of three partners in China. Are those more on the supply side? And would you consider other sort of tech partnerships in China?

Yes. We would definitely consider other partnerships in China. It needs to make sense, right? Obviously, stating the obvious. But yes, we would consider other partners as long as they are win-win situations for Aptiv and for the partners.

And maybe talking about connectors, what does the connector market look like in China and globally, are you seeing some of the China connector players show up around the world?

We see some. We're very competitive in China. Very competitive. The mix of China local OEMs programs and revenues is highest in our interconnect business. Roughly 70% of their business today is at market mix or production, very strong positions with the top 5 OEMs in China. China for China applications. Export platforms as well as supporting today supporting players like BYD, like Chery, like Geely in their overseas manufacturing efforts. So we're very well positioned. But like any market, as in advance and grows the supply base, there'll be more competitors out there. We just need to stay in front of them, which is something we've been able to do.

Maybe we can talk about user experience. That's been a pretty big drag on growth. When does that start to inflect? And how core is it to -- you're pretty nimble with your product portfolio? I mean is that too integrated in the rest of the business to divest at some point?

Well, listen, we always look -- we're always looking and reassessing our product portfolio. I think we need to define what user experience is. For us, it's -- we participate in the software stack. We participate in the software stack that is a big piece of which we would say today is more ADAS driven than it is, quite frankly, user experience driven. So it's all the in-cabin sensing, driver monitoring, cabin monitoring, some of that for safety applications. Some of that for how does the sound system operate? How does the human machine interface operate. So there's overlaps with the use of that particular technology. We've talked in the past, we had a large program in -- that was effectively in runoff, and we're about done with that program in runoff. If you look at the whole in-cabin experience sector, the way we look at it today, we're in growth mode today. There are some areas that are less of a priority for us, the traditional infotainment system, which going way back is how we thought about it. There are small areas that we play there, very small areas, but the development or the integration of an OEM's infotainment system is an area that we've significantly backed off of.

Kevin, I guess, just to kind of add to one piece, right? I mean, Kevin mentioned the blurring of the lines between active safety and user experience, for example, with in-cabin sensing being out there. But that also kind of goes back to the renaming of what was our ASUX segment to Intelligent Systems, right? And so -- and then within that product lines being sensors and compute and software and services, which we believe better addresses and better positions us for both the auto and the non-auto side, right? If you think of the push and both of our segments are making tremendous progress on both fronts is just to make sure that we don't kind of pigeonhole ourselves within an auto world as such because we believe and as we are seeing, our technologies and our capabilities are vastly applicable to multiple end markets. So that's the other piece to just kind of share that piece. I know we talked about user experience in the past, but just want to give -- get everyone up to speed with that segment.

How about an update on DRAM? Obviously, the costs have gone through the roof. You seem to have it pretty well managed. I think you had 12 -- starting the year, you had 12 weeks of inventory. You said the cost was about $175 as your pie last year, and you only expect low double increases in that cost. Is that still on track? And has the supply gotten worse? And how should we think about '27?

Listen, the memory sector is constrained with -- without a doubt for 2026, we had end of last year contracted for the full year and locked in prices and commitments from a sourcing standpoint. I would say 2027, we're in a situation where supply for us is virtually guaranteed at this point. Prices will be higher. In order to receive supply, you need to operate at market pricing. So for those OEM customers that are willing to commit with us back to back, we're in a position where we can guarantee them supply and at least a range of overall pricing. But we'll have what we need to support our customers as long as our customers understand. And I think the industry is at a point where they do just given all the noise around it. That prices are going to be significantly higher in '27 than they were in '26.

So you feel pretty confident you'll be able to...

Yes. We feel very comfortable on supply. We have no I shouldn't say no concern. We're very confident on supply, prices given the constraint in overall capacity are going to increase in 2027, and we're passing that to our customers.

And Colin, I think if you can recall, a year ago, we had made approximately about $200 million of investments on that front, semiconductors, memory and stuff. And so -- and again, for '26 also, we call that piece out as part of our free cash flow generation, right? So there are certain areas that based on our conversations that are out there, we've been continuing to utilize the balance sheet to double down on supply chain resiliency. As Kevin mentioned, '26, we feel good about '27 supply guaranteed, but pricing remains open, but it will be...

Maybe just to wrap it up, maybe last question on M&A. I mean, with the spin, you have a little stronger balance sheet, cash. How should we think about what are your priorities for M&A going forward? Is it mostly trying to find assets on the non-auto side? Or are you open to everything?

Yes. I would say -- I would -- I'd answer your question more broadly on capital allocation. So the New Aptiv is a more cash-generative business, to your point, given the margin profile and the nature of the business. Our focus is really on how do we continue to invest organically in the business, both on the automotive side as well as the nonautomotive side, continue to do that. Where we can accelerate the advancement of capabilities, whether that be broaden the product portfolio or capabilities from an engineering or a go-to-market standpoint, we'll look to acquire. I would say the focus there from an M&A standpoint, our bolt-on acquisitions, I'd say, principally in the interconnect space. Say, principally outside of automotive, just given the strength of our existing product portfolio on the Intelligence Systems side, more either commercial partnerships or investments in different technology players. And then the balance of the cash to the extent that we have excess cash flow, we'll return it to shareholders, consistent with what we've done in the past.

Got it. All right. Well, I think we'll wrap it up there.

Thanks for having us.

Thank you, Colin.

Appreciate it.