Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining. Anthony Pettinari, packaging analyst here at Citi. And we're very pleased to have from Ardagh Metal Packaging, Oliver Graham, CEO; and Stefan Schellinger, CFO. Oliver, Stefan, thanks for joining. We'll keep it very interactive.

And maybe I'll just -- maybe we could just start with Americas and North America. And can you discuss the demand environment in North America, the factors that have maybe driven pretty good mid-single-digit growth year-to-date and expectations for '26?

Sure. Yes. No, as you say, I think we've had a good year in North America, a little bit ahead of expectations, driven particularly by the energy category, where we have a strong portfolio. We have both traditional energy players, but also new players, growing very well this year. New players building international distribution, and that certainly served us well. I think in the first half, we saw that the carbonated soft drinks, the CSD players were also getting decent growth, promoting strongly, a bit less in the second half. So I think we see that moderating to more probably where we'd have expected it for the year. Other categories like sparkling water has also been in good growth, which again is good from our perspective with the shape of our portfolio. And then we're not very exposed to mass beer where there's clearly been some weakness. And then in terms of '26, yes, we called the market at sort of low singles. Clearly, there could be some headwinds if the tariff situation persists and Midwest premium remains high. Players will have been hedged this year. Some of those hedges will unwind and that could be a mild headwind. We don't see as a huge effect at retail, but it can play through the supply chain. So we're somewhat cautious, but still see it as a growth of low singles. And then we signaled at our Q3 that we expect it to be a bit softer than the market because of some contract resets in '24, '25.

Right. So '26 maybe a transition year is how you think?

Yes, that's exactly how we described it because I think we've had 3, 4 years of very good growth, typically ahead of the market. We see growth coming back in '27. So yes, exactly. I think '26, we're taking a bit of a breath.

And is there like a percentage of contracts next year that is up for a normal level or 20% or 30%.

It's actually a relatively low percentage now because we've been through these big resets that were the -- if you like, the follow-on from the COVID period where we had longer contracts extending into the middle of the decade. So yes, our North American business is now highly -- I mean, contracted, highly agreed, highly signed off contracts sometimes take a bit more time to actually get signed, but highly commercially resolved.

Great. And you don't have exposure really to mass beer, but others do. I don't know if you can talk generally about maybe risk or competitive dynamics with -- if declines in beer are more secular than cyclical, does that show up somewhere else or put pressure on pricing? Or like how could you see that play out?

I mean we've seen some of that in the market just because, obviously, domestic beer has been under pressure. We had the issue with Bud Light, which obviously was a domestic producer, the growth of imported cans. So to be honest, we've been living with that situation for a while. I don't see any particularly elevated risk. We've just been through these resets. They're mostly resolved. So I don't see any particularly elevated risk for the next year or 2. I think, as I say, we've been living with the situation for a while. And I do think the can is going to continue to be highly competitive in the space. So just depending on where the space grows, I still think the can will take share in that space. So at the minute, yes, we don't have any particular scenario planning around that.

Great. And in terms of substrate substitution and the strength that you've seen in North America, I don't know if you could call out 1 or 2 categories or customer types where you're taking share from glass or plastic or...

I mean I think wherever we look in our 3 regions, the can is taking share from glass at the moment, either 2-way or one way with elevated cost of glass, some of the sustainability headwinds, 2-way, obviously, long-term secular shift into one-way packaging in Brazil. So I think that has been a phenomenon. We can see that and glass players have commented pretty openly, obviously, about that as well. And most of those structural factors, I think, remain in place looking forward, maybe moderating a little bit, but still fundamentally in place. And then I think if you take it on the plastic side, again, we see ourselves generally gaining share in Europe and North America in soft drinks categories from plastic, which is, again, sustainability concerns with our major customers and with consumers. So again, at the minute, we see that persisting.

Right. And in terms of your North American footprint, operating rates sort of relative...

We felt pretty tight in the season, to be honest this year. Obviously, we had more growth than we anticipated in -- particularly in sleek. So some of the specialty sizes back off this energy growth that we were enjoying. So we felt pretty tight. We had to move the network around a lot. Fortunately, we built a lot more flexibility into the network in the last few years. So we were able to do that between different sizes at different points in the season. But we even left probably a point or 2 of growth on the table in Q3 on 12 out standard, we think. So I'd say operating rates, I'd agree with the other commentary I've seen that sort of low 90s is probably where the industry is at, which is a reasonable position to be in, I think.

Does World Cup matter or where does it matter?

Yes, hopefully matters in Brazil. And that is historically where it has mattered the most. Obviously, a lot of football focus. You've got the beer players tend to sponsor a lot of football brand, teams and the event. So there is a historical correlation, which obviously, we're looking forward to. We think there could be other fiscal stimulus next year in Brazil as well. So that underpins our hope for some recovery in Brazil after what's been a tough year for the beer market.

And it's a good segue to Brazil. I mean it's always a little bit volatile, but this year, maybe more so. I mean was that -- can you talk about winter, consumer pressure, like what do you think drove that? And where are we now?

Yes. I think it's improved a bit going into Q4. We certainly saw that in October, and we're going into the summer period. I wouldn't overstate it. I think it still feels a bit fragile relative to our expectations. Clearly, it was a very cold winter, and we saw that in the Q3 numbers. And clearly, there is some degree of consumer pressure, I think, on spending. So -- and all substrates suffered. Normally, we're gaining at the expense of 2-way. So yes, we'd hope next year with the World Cup with some fiscal stimulus that is reasonably anticipated that we get -- and I think with the reaction of the brewers because I think they won't like this sort of performance. So I expect to see some reaction. Yes, I would expect it to go back into more normal levels of growth, I think.

And you are 95%, 90% beer in Brazil?

Yes. Yes. We're almost exclusively beer.

Maybe segueing to Europe. Can you talk about -- I think you had low single-digit growth year-to-date and then expectations for '26?

Yes. So I think Europe still grows well. You can see that in our numbers, in the peer numbers. So these long-term trends that are supporting Europe between relatively low per capita consumption in certain markets like Germany, the sustainability trends again, where Europe quite active from a regulatory perspective, so quite a bit that customers there worry about and innovation, again, going into the can, sort of some consumer back pressure on plastic and lack of recycling infrastructure on plastics. So we see those long-term structural trends still in place and going into '26. We were a bit weaker because of -- there we are sort of 50-50 between alc and non-alc. So recently decent beer exposure. And so that definitely -- we saw a weaker second half of the year than the first half. Again, we'd expect the brewers to respond. I think they're talking about it. They're talking about having got a bit out of line on affordability, pushing price beyond CPI, and I think they'll address some of that. So we'd expect beer to recover a bit. We're not banking on too much. And then the soft drinks and energy space, again, very strong. Also lots of sort of innovative categories like wine, ready-to-drink teas, coffee is also good in Europe this year. So -- and again, we're sort of Western Europe, Central Europe, U.K. focused relative to some of our peers. So that -- those markets probably growing well, but some of them not as strongly as some of the Southern and Southeastern markets.

Right. Right. And what does glass substitution look like in Europe? And beer right now? Is it something that's...

Yes. If you look at the last couple of years, every quarter, we get the data, the can is outgrowing glass in beer. So I mean it's very meaningful, I think. And that's why the glass beers are suffering in Europe. And that -- obviously, the energy shock of the Russia-Ukraine war has been very meaningful, adding more cost into glass than in cans. And yes, it's persisting at the minute. There's still some structural higher energy costs out there. We don't quite know how that will develop, but it is still present.

And can you talk a little bit more about costs in Europe? You had kind of a little conversion cost issues this year. I don't know if there's anything you point out of electricity.

Yes, it was less the energy side. I mean I think we're broadly in line and energy is sort of generally coming down in our portfolio as the situation stabilize. But -- and in cans is less of a -- now that we're back in more normal ranges, it's less of an issue. No, it was more on the aluminum conversion that we signaled that we had some headwinds. It was more delayed pass-through, if you like, of the energy shock, which obviously does affect aluminum producers, which we've managed to hold off, but it came through particularly this year. And I think one of our peers has called it out as well. And we don't see that same headwind into '26. So we think that situation is normalizing as we go forward.

And in terms of -- you talked about maybe low 90s utilization in North America. Is that decent for Europe or...

No, we'd be ahead of that. So I think in the season, we were certainly mid-plus. So obviously, as the beer market weakened a bit in the second half, that took a bit of pressure out of the system. But certain sizes, certain geographies are very tight in the season at the moment. So there is a need for more capacity to deal with the growth in Europe, and we see capacity coming to the market. We've still got space to grow because we can -- we're still ramping a couple of facilities that we invested in. So there's still room for those to perform better. There's general operational improvements. So we don't need capacity in the next, let's say, at least the next year. But then I think we've signaled we will also be making our share of investments.

So the initial view for '26 for North America, low single-digit volumes.

We said that to the market. And then we said we'd be softer than the market. And then we're not specifying and we won't specify we'll guide at our full year because we're still working through a few situations.

Right. And then in Europe, the 3...

We sort of said we'd be in line. So we said the market, we think, is low 3% plus, 3% to 4%, and we expect to be in line. In Brazil, we said it hopefully goes back to sort of the 3% to 5% and again, see ourselves roughly in line.

And then I don't know if you've disclosed the facilities that you're debottlenecking or you're ramping? Like what is the time line there? And where is the capacity?

Yes. It really follows where we made the investments. So in France and Germany, we've made some investments. And then there's a couple of other facilities where we just see operational improvement. So yes, it's a little bit across the network that we think we can just increase capacity over 2026.

We talked about the tariffs and the kind of the cost of the can. When you think about the competitiveness of can post Liberation Day, can you give us a sense of sort of the -- with the premium, what metal costs are, maybe what cost to the buyer of the can is year-over-year or what it could be? And could that move the needle versus glass or plastic in people making a substitution decision?

Yes. I think the calculation that we shared and everybody is sharing is now we're in a sort of $0.02 to $0.03 on the total retail price of the can. That obviously, therefore, is a higher proportion of the conversion cost that we're selling on to customers. So I don't see that personally affecting the glass can substitution because I think those costs are structurally very different. I think at the margin, you could say there could be some play on PET. But again, it's not that the situations are completely fungible. There's lots of other considerations of filling line capacity of marketing campaigns of shelf space of sustainability. So I think the margin may be -- and that's why we were somewhat cautious in our remarks at Q3 that you could get some headwind on the can, but I don't think it's of a major order.

You talked about sort of competitive intensity in North America. And I'm wondering if you could talk about Europe and Brazil broadly.

I think Europe feels to me like it's always felt, which is there is good healthy levels of competition chasing growth and investing. It can mean that pricing is always competitive and that you need to do what we've always done as an industry, which is lower your costs to maintain margins and invest to grow. So there are some spots where it's a bit more competitive than others and certain players in the market. But I don't think it's anything out of what I'd call the ordinary course for the can industry and partly what's kept the can industry very competitive and healthy. And then Brazil, it's a little bit looser for sure, capacity-wise. So we do see some pressure in certain situations on volumes. But again, I think everything that the can industry has always done to then address its cost base and move forward and keep margins in a decent place, which we need to do because we need to invest for our customers. So I think it works for everyone if that dynamic is maintained.

We've been talking to packaging CEOs all day about kind of volume performance in '25 and volume outlook for '26, and they're not always cheerful discussions. But it seems like bev cans have really bucked the trend. I mean, holistically, as you think about the last few years and maybe '26, like obviously, there's substitution, but I'm just curious how you think the bev can kind of fits with a consumer that's dealing with a lot of affordability issues.

Yes. I think there's been a whole series of tailwinds, right? I think we're in categories that are in good growth like energy and where there's a lot of innovation like cocktails. I think we have become the package of choice in North America for innovation, and that's partly sustainability reasons, partly branding, attractiveness. So I think we see that as a tailwind. I think that we are working for our customers and consumers from a sustainability point of view. So we're obviously both highly recyclable, but also actually recycled and actually brought back into the chain, it's very circular. And that also lowers carbon. And we're on a very powerful carbon reduction program that's supporting our science-based targets, but also our customers' science-based targets, which are generally set for 2030. And those haven't gone away whatever we hear in the world in general. So that combination, the can has always been very efficient through the supply chain. It's always been good for branding and product quality. But I think adding the strong innovation in the can and the sustainability and then some headwinds for our competing substrates, particularly obviously glass has suffered with some of the cost headwinds have all played in the favor of the can. And I think that what that means is the consumer also gets more and more used to the can in more occasions, in more settings. And as they do, I think it means it opens up more growth.

And your specialty mix is 60%, 65%...

Yes. So we -- the way the industry generally defines it, we're pretty strong in specialty. And particularly, we invested in, obviously, a lot of sleek in North America initially on the back of the hard seltzer growth, but that capacity has proved extremely powerful for the trends that are going on in the market with innovation and again, energy drinks. So that's been a really good underpin for the business. But it's also true in Europe, we have good sleek, slim capacity. And in Brazil, we've also made our lines very flexible for different sizes. So yes, we sit in a good place on specialty capacity.

Can you talk about you don't need new capacity for the next year or so. But as you look beyond that, can you just talk about optimal leverage, cash generation, maybe multiyear CapEx to the extent that you can, like how do you balance the growing market with.

Sure. I might pass that one to Stefan.

Yes. So starting with sort of the CapEx element sort of for this year, we guided towards around [indiscernible] growth CapEx. Looking a little bit ahead, I mean, I think we talked about sort of potential investments in Europe in terms of expansions, potentially align. So this is something I think we are considering in the near to midterm. I think sort of overall, I think what we have line of sight of in terms of our investment projects, I think this will be sort of within our current free cash flow generation. So I don't think [indiscernible] change. And if you think about capital allocation going forward, obviously, there's the dividend, which is a Board decision [indiscernible] changing in the near term. So I think it's really about organic investment, the dividend allocation for what is foreseeable.

And the optimal leverage long term, right?

Look, we just recently refinanced our 2026 maturities and [indiscernible] and redeemed our preference shares. So we are now a little bit over 5x. We hope to delever over time as we grow EBITDA, I think we are comfortable operating at that leverage. We haven't put out a specific leverage target, but I think that probably gives you a sort of sense of where we are on leverage right now.

Can you talk about the green bond refinancing that...

Yes. So green bond refinancing, all our bonds are sort of under a green sort of finance framework. I mean the element here goes back to what Ollie referenced earlier is sort of the recyclability of aluminum and sort of us using in our operations, recycled aluminum, which has a significant better carbon footprint than original sort of primary aluminum, and that is sort of on our green framework, that green element that we have as a business.

And then we've got a question in terms of the group recapitalization, like how that impacts you or does not impact you? Like how should we think about that?

Yes. I think it's a very positive step, right, because it eliminates uncertainty. I think it was a process that took a while. And I think now it's solved and clear. And I think that's also from an A&P perspective, clearly positive.

Oliver, from your perspective, is there any change or...

No. I mean it's very early days. So obviously, there's a new Executive Chairman, Mark Porto at the group level. He's joined the AMP Board as well with Paul Coulson leaving. But we still have the same Chair of the AMP Board, and we have 5 nonexecs. So from our point of view, governance has remained in the same place. We don't have any particular change in direction in terms of what we're up to. And clearly, what management is doing is driving performance and improving the business. And then we'll see over the next period what the new shareholders want to do at the group level.

And assuming you continue to have good growth and cash generation, are there -- do you want to grow with customers? Are there specific capabilities or geographies that maybe you're not in? Or just broadly, how do you think?

Yes. I think the first priority, as Stefan said, was to make sure we capture our share of European growth, which we can do in under the roof investment. So we've got 2 projects there that we think we'll do. And that will make sure we stay with our customers and with their growth in key geographies like Spain, the U.K. and capture, as I say, our share of growth within our current capital framework. I think if you look longer term, obviously, there is another step to take in North America. We need to think about that. In Brazil, at the moment, we have capacity, but it's more in the Northeast. So there will be some questions around the South at some point, but that's probably at least a couple of years away. And then future geographies, other geographies, I think we'd consider, but I think for that, we need probably a bit more direction on where the company is going. So that's probably not immediate.

Got it. Got it. Any questions from the room? Oliver, Stefan, thank you.

Thanks, Anthony. Thank you, everyone.