Arecor Therapeutics plc (6UI.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
January 7, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Melanie Senior
executiveWelcome, everybody, to this panel discussion. We're going to be talking today about a potential new solution for patients with diabetes. It's an innovation that combines a unique ultra-concentrated, ultra-rapid-acting insulin that's in development at Arecor Therapeutics with Sequel Med Tech's automated insulin delivery system, twiist, which was launched in the U.S. last year. I'm Melanie Senior. I'm your host today. I write for the Nature Portfolio and EvaluatePharma. I'm delighted to have with me today Dr. Sarah Howell, who's the CEO of Arecor. Arecor is an AIM-listed company based in Cambridge, U.K. Also joining me here, Dr. Alan Lotvin, who is the CEO and Co-Founder of Sequel Med Tech based in New Hampshire in the U.S. And last but not least, we're also joined by Dr. Thomas Blevins, who is a practicing endocrinologist. He's based in Austin, Texas and also founder of the Texas Diabetes & Endocrinology Treatment Center. Our road map for the discussion broadly, we're going to probably talk about 30 or 40 minutes, first of all, initially about the remaining unmet need in diabetes care, which remains significant despite the plethora of devices and therapies available. We'll talk about how Arecor's insulin with Sequel's innovative device may help address some of that unmet need. We'll also detail the collaboration between those 2 companies, which was signed last September and look at the forthcoming milestones from that deal and partnership. And then finally, we will open up for your audience questions. And thank you to those of you who've already submitted them. It's great to see. So we'll leave time for that, too. So I'm going to start, if I may, with Dr. Blevins welcome. Could you start, please, just reminding us how challenging diabetes is to manage still for many, many patients and their health care professionals supporting them. And also just tell us which particular category of patients are those using this very intensive insulin therapy that we'll be talking about today.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeRight. Thanks, Mel, and good to be here. So we take care of people. And I know in this audience, there are people who are experts and know all the terms and everything, and there are people who probably don't. And so I'm going to try to explain things a little bit. And so in diabetes care, we take care of people, of course, with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. And we -- the people with type 1 diabetes tend to be on intensive therapy and a high percentage are on insulin pumps and automated insulin delivery. And automated insulin delivery is the sensors that we use of the various brands, talk to the pumps and there are various algorithms, and we have a number of excellent pumps available. In the type 1 world, it is sort of a standard. In the type 2 world, we're just kind of getting into that. There are a very high number of people with type 2 that are on insulin and a high percentage of them are on multiple daily injection or we might call it intensive insulin therapy. And increasingly, we're getting into automated insulin delivery, again, sensor talking to pump, pump pumps the insulin in. And so people with diabetes typically start with oral agents, diet oral agents, weight loss. Now GLP-1s, which delays the onset of starting insulin, but still a significant percent of the people with type 2 are on insulin and on more like multiple daily injection. People with type 2 have to -- not only in type 1, but also have to take insulin multiple times per day, paraphernalia, they have to have prescriptions, multiple prescriptions. And it's a whole new dimension to life, changes in food, we tell them you have to change your food activity, all of that. And so there is a bit of a treatment. There's no question, there's a treatment burden, ask people with type 2. And so that is a typical thing for people with type 2 diabetes. And increasingly, as I mentioned, we're getting into more automated treatment, which is going to make their treatment burden, I think, a little bit less. And I liken it to using automatic transmission in the car versus the stick shift. I mean having things automated helps and eventually automated cars, driving cars like robo cars and things like that, I think are going to help all of us in a way. And people with type 2 and type 1 both benefit from this automation.
Melanie Senior
executiveSo can I just come in to the automation, I mean, I'm imagining -- so they don't have to do anything, the sensor and the delivery of the dose just happens. So they have their device and then that's it, no needles, no nothing, that's just taken care of, correct?
Thomas Blevins
attendeeThat is fairly correct. They still have to insert the sensors. It's not totally easy, but they have to insert the sensors. The sensors are lasting longer. And that is a very important word, longer and more miniaturized makes life better, I think, for people with diabetes. And we'll get into this a little bit later, but one of the sort of enemies of miniaturization is high-dose insulin need and using an insulin like U100, only 100 units per cc versus a more concentrated insulin, which would allow lower volumes and more miniaturization. But yes, that is exactly right, longer wear infusion sets for the pumps, the automated pumps, insulin that can be last longer because of concentration and especially people with higher doses. This morning, I was in my office seeing patients. That's what I do. I'm a clinician and we do a lot of clinical research. But one patient, type 1 was on 190 units of insulin per day, the other type 2 on 230. So this thing about high-dose insulin is real. And to get those people, and that's a significant percentage of the people with type 2 diabetes and type 1 as well these days. We can talk more about that, but I want to be brief. But to get those people onto the automated systems, we need to have a concentrated, I think, a concentrated insulin. So longer, smaller is a big deal.
Melanie Senior
executiveYes. Okay. And we'll come on to this, of course, but thank you for teeing that up. And just -- can I just push you the high number of T2, type 2s, on insulin, I mean, we're talking what, over 50% roughly. I mean a significant proportion...
Thomas Blevins
attendeeI would say it's -- on insulin, it's probably not 50%. The -- it's probably like 25%, 30%, but a significant percentage of a very high number of people with type 2 diabetes.
Melanie Senior
executiveYes. Okay. And you mentioned the GLP-1s, and I know they're in everyone's mind, and we'll come on to that. That's not going to take away the need for insulin, not now, not in the future.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeYou're right.
Melanie Senior
executiveAbsolutely. Thank you very much for setting out that. I mean just the challenge of management and the daily burden, I suppose, and I know that patients just want to forget they have this condition, right, and get on with their lives and the easier that is to do the better. So we're teeing this up really nicely. And I'll invite Alan to come in now, to talk a bit more about the twiist system, the automated insulin delivery. And I think we also have some slides to bring up at this point.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeYou're bringing the slides up to me, I make one point, and that is this burden makes it so that many times people with type 2, especially really don't take their insulin. So having a system that would actually -- and they have hypoglycemia, they're worried about that, having a system that would reduce their risk of hypoglycemia, reduce their worry and actually give them the medicine that they're supposed to be taking would be very helpful.
Melanie Senior
executiveBecause if they don't take it, then we get into the proper complication from the safety issue, anyway we'll talk about that. Alan, tell us -- so there are some really big competitors out there when it comes to insulin delivery systems. We're seeing MiniMed spin out of Medtronic, et cetera. Tell us about the twiist. You've launched recently. How does that technology stand out in relation to -- let's face it, a pretty competitive market with some big players. Maybe you could speak to how the launch is going as well.
Alan Lotvin
executiveSure. So I'll take 4 or 5 minutes. So the first thing is I'll agree with Dr. Blevins completely here in that despite the fact that there are a lot of people in this space, it is a significantly -- it is a market that suffers from -- has a ton of unmet needs, right? Less than half the people with type 1 who should be using these devices are the people who are using them will switch between 5% and 15% a year. So what we see is that despite years of good devices and clearly better than pens, we still have less than half the people in the United States and far less overseas. So I think there's a large unmet need. So what did we do? Why did we come to market? What we came to market with was the first really new technology in 25 years. I'll just hold up so you can see kind of the real size. And just to be clear, I'm not 6 feet, 9 inches tall or 205 centimeters. I can't palm a basketball. This is a pretty small device, but it holds 300 units of insulin. So getting to the U100, so 3 cc of fluid. So getting to Dr. Blevins' point about the people who need lots of insulin or longer duration. So what this technology does that's unique is it's the only piece of technology that directly measures how much insulin is given with every microshot. And we measure that to 50 billion of a liter of accuracy. Why is that important? Well, 2 reasons. One, with respect to AT278, if you're giving 5x concentrated insulin, you really want to know how much you've given, right? And you want to be sure that it's consistent and reliable. Number two is you're feeding more accurate information into the algorithm, right? You're telling the algorithm, this is how much insulin I have on board exactly or plus or minus 5% at a 50 billion of a liter level of accuracy. The -- and there are other advantages that we don't need to go into for time. We've also built this device on completely modern architecture, which is why we're able to do things like CGM integration relatively quickly, and we have some other really interesting integrations like the Apple Watch that were relatively straightforward because we're dealing with literally 21st century technology. That turns into really the opportunity for people to personalize their experience, right? So number one, this is small. It's lightweight. You can wear it on your body, you can stick it in your pocket, you can move it around without losing insulin, without losing anything. Like I said, smallest form factor that still holds 300 units. And we use the twiist loop algorithm derived from the do-it-yourself community, but is the FDA-cleared version that we modified for use in our device. And that has the widest glucose range, right? It goes down as low as a target glucose of 87 milligrams per deciliter, which for those in the U.K. is 4.83 millimoles per liter. All the data would say the lower your set point that you can safely set at, the better your clinical outcomes are going to be. And we've started to see in our early real-world evidence outstanding clinical outcomes. So we're excited about that. And finally, with respect to our launch, which you mentioned, Melanie, we have outstanding access on the pharmacy benefit and only on the pharmacy benefit in the United States. We chose that because it's the lowest out-of-pocket for people living with diabetes. It is the most convenient and simplest way. We have coverage with over 140 million commercial lives in the United States right now, which is almost close to 80% of the entire population, and we're incredibly pleased with the response that we've gotten from payers. We're also incredibly pleased with the response we've gotten from prescribers. We have over 2,700 unique prescribers that during our limited launch, where we were controlling how many people we put on at a time, sent us a referral or a prescription. So all in all, we're very excited. And we'll be -- we're launching kind of broadly nationally this month, and very excited to be able to work with the folks at Arecor because we think the combination of the twiist device plus AT278 creates not just the opportunity that Dr. Blevins talked about for miniaturization, but also the opportunity to create a device that everyone using intensive insulin type 1 and type 2, can use for 3, 5, 7 days as we continue to pursue approvals for longer wear. So I'll stop there and turn it over to Sarah.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. Thank you very much. I'm getting this message then, very accurate measurement, small device, but with a big reservoir, flexible target flexibility, but also pairing into the Apple ecosystem, that makes sense. A lot of people have Apple technology. So thanks for setting out those advantages and the coverage as well, and I'll maybe come on to some of the feedback. But first of all, Sarah, I think we should talk about insulin. Let's get on to the insulin then and perhaps you can tell us about the Arecor insulin AT278, how you developed it and just the need it serves and how it's different to what's out there already?
Sarah Howell
executiveSure. So AT278 is the only highly concentrated ultra-rapid acting insulin in development. So it's 5x more concentrated than the insulins that are out there today that are approved for use in these AID systems. So it's a 500 unit per mL insulin compared with those 100 unit per mL insulins. And what we did here is we took existing insulin that's already out there and approved and develop a novel form of insulin that's not only 5x more concentrated, but also has this ultra-rapid acting profile, and that's important, and we'll come on to that. And we've demonstrated its superiority in clinical studies in people with type 1 diabetes as well as with type 2 diabetes with high BMI. I'm not going to talk through we don't have time today. I'm happy to do that offline with anyone that's interested in detail in our clinical data. But what you're seeing here on this slide is our most recent clinical study. So this was comparing AT278 to 500 units per mL with 100 unit per mL insulin aspart. So this is Novo Nordisk, NovoRapid or NovoLog, as it's called in the U.S. and is really to demonstrate that superior profile. So this is in type 2, very similar data in type 1 patient population. So what you're seeing here at a very high level is we've accelerated that absorption of insulin. We're getting more insulin on board faster. In fact, we saw in that first hour post injection 48% in favor of AT278, and then this translates to a greater glucose lowering profile. And again, we saw 66% more insulin action in that first hour post dosing. And the reason why this is quite remarkable here is if you don't do anything special with insulin, if you simply just concentrate up 5x, then you end up with a blunting of this time action profile. So you see a very long and slow absorption of insulin and that converts to a slower and more depressed glucose lowering profile, which means it wouldn't be a good insulin then for use in an AID system. We need fast insulin to be able to control precisely, I'm sure Dr. Blevins will talk about this in more detail, blood glucose and time and range to improve those outcomes for patients. And that's what we've achieved with AT278.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. And just for my benefit here as well, Sarah, the highly concentrated, highly rapid acting, I mean, immediately, I think of, well, is there an increased risk of hypoglycemia. So just remind us of why that precision and the dosing kind of reduces or minimizes that risk.
Sarah Howell
executiveYes. So we're very much looking at this as an insulin [indiscernible] AID systems as we identified some really key, and Alan has spoken about this and to a certain extent, Dr.Blevins, is key patient unmet needs. We know it's undisputed that people do better using an AID system versus MDI, multiple daily injection. Alan talked about the fact that even in the U.S., where the uptake is highest, you still got less than 50% of people with type 1 diabetes using an AID system and less than 10%, we think it's around 5% of people with type 2. So why is that here? And this is around burden, reducing burden and how do we improve those controls here. So with a really concentrated insulin that's also rapid acting, you can move more people over to AID systems, more people, you can get to 3-day wear. And then if we take the accuracy and precision of dosing that Alan talked about with the twiist device, we can then be really sure about that safety. We know exactly how much insulin is being dosed. The algorithm can be fine tuned [Technical Difficulty].
Melanie Senior
executiveWe're losing your sound a bit, Sarah. Can you -- sorry, can you just say that last piece again?
Sarah Howell
executiveI'm not sure where you left me...
Melanie Senior
executiveJust couple of sentences ago, just a couple of sentences.
Sarah Howell
executiveOkay. Yes, I was talking about the fact of if we couple AT278 with superior kinetics with an AID system, which has that precision and accuracy and safety, we can then fine-tune the algorithms. It's the algorithm which is deciding how much insulin is needed relative to those blood glucose readings there. And if we can fine-tune that, not only can we get the best out of the fast-acting superior kinetics, we can also really tightly control that time and range. And that's really then tightly controlling those hyperglycemic events as well as those hypo events.
Melanie Senior
executiveI understand. So there really is this perfect marriage between the accuracy side on Alan's device and the characteristics, PK characteristics of your insulin. And just can I just come back to even in the U.S., less than 50% of patients are using automated insulin delivery systems. And I'm thinking why is that? And I think you didn't spell it out or spell it out for me, it's because they're not quite good enough? Or is it because of something else?
Sarah Howell
executiveSo maybe I'll talk a little bit, but I think Alan as well, you should talk about this as well. I'll talk about it in relation to the insulin. AID systems that are out there today, they're great systems. There's no doubt about that technology has advanced significantly. So we're really looking at now how can we get even better, how can we lower the burden for people living with diabetes and transition more people across to their use. And from an insulin perspective, one really key obvious area is, and Dr. Blevins, talked about this, of the 4 million people, around 4 million people in the U.S. that are on intensive insulin therapy, around 1 million of those are on more than 100 units of insulin a day. So with current AID systems holding up to a maximum of 300 units, they can't get to 3-day wear today. So never mind that longer wear, future miniaturization. So if we can make the AID systems practical for use and lower that burden for that 1 million people that are on more than 100 units a day, we can increase that accessibility and hopefully increase the number of people using AID systems.
Melanie Senior
executiveAlan, do you want to comment on anything on that to add or?
Alan Lotvin
executiveI'll make a very quick comment, and then I'm going to turn it over to the true expert, which is the comment I'd make is that you asked the question why is that? And the answer is there are -- there isn't a single answer. These are a group of diverse heterogeneous patients who all have different reasons for why they've made the treatment decisions that they've made. It's clear that AID systems improve the clinical outcome. So if people are choosing not to, it's a very personal reason. Some of it has to do with cost. Some of it has to do with usability. Some of it has to do with -- the one thing I've heard from a lot of people who are still using pens is when I inject myself, I know for sure that I have insulin on board, and I'm not going to end up in DKA or hyperglycemic comas. But I'll turn it over to Tom for his much more informed view.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeNo, your view are very informed. And a couple of comments. One is, well, we're in the dawn of a new era when it comes to type 2 and AID because there are now 3 companies that have gotten approval and for type 2. That's recent, really recent. And twiist is undergoing studies currently to get approved for type 2. So we're just getting there, and we have a lot to learn. And to put that thing into perspective about the number of units in those 2 patients I described this morning, with U100, if they're using a 3 cc cartridge in a pump, if a person is on 200 units a day, they're going to have to change that cartridge out and the whole thing out every day or 1.5 days. And that is not practical. That is not prolonged. That's not convenient. And so the real next level or next sort of kind of barrier to get through is to get an insulin that we can use that allows people to wear for 3 days at least or 7 days. And we have one company that has a 7-day wear infusion set. Another will have one very soon. Excellent. And -- but if you have an insulin -- now you can change the cartridge out and not the infusion set, but if you have an insulin that you have to use a high consumption U100 with these high insulin users, then they're going to have to change this whole set out repeatedly, really frequently. So we really need a concentrated insulin. In a sense, I mean, I love insulin, one of my favorite hormones. And -- but U100 is sort of the enemy of the prolonged use of the AID systems. And so we do have a U500 currently. You know that. And it has peak -- it's really neat, Sarah is your PK/PD because you're looking at U500 that looks better than U100 aspart. And it's U500 and it gets in quickly, peaks quickly, gets out quickly. We need that to get that better time and range, number one, for the better postprandial control and the lower duration. The current U500, and then I'll pause. But the current U500 we have peaks in 4 to 8 hours, terrible, totally nonphysiologic and has a duration of 24 hours. It's not usable. So we need a U500 concentrated to prolong the duration of what we give people for insulin, make their life better.
Melanie Senior
executiveIt's extraordinary to me 100 years or more since insulin was first isolated that we're still -- there's still just more to do. So no -- and I'm also very interested in your point, Alan, about patients some of them wanting that feeling of I know I've injected this sort of almost not trusting the algorithm. That's just an interesting angle, but we won't get into all that today. I want to come on to the partnership that Sarah and Alan, you signed, you teamed up just a few months ago. We've already got a really clear sense of why these 2 innovations are so well suited to each other, given their characteristics, the precision, the sensor precision and the convenience of the device with the PK and the characteristic [indiscernible]. Sarah, can you just outline the sort of key elements of the partnership and maybe some of the milestones we can expect?
Sarah Howell
executiveSure. So I think Melanie, as you mentioned at the beginning, we entered into a partnership, so it's a co-development partnership in September of last year. And that's the initial partnership essentially here to undertake all of the activities that we need to do for a Phase II clinical study of AT278 in the twiist AID system here. So it's really so that we can get going on that and take all of that off the critical path. So we're co-funding those Phase II-enabling activities under that agreement. We've been to the FDA together, had a really successful meeting and positive feedback on a pretty innovative Phase II clinical study design there as well, where we'll be using time and range as our primary endpoint. So the teams are busy getting on with that currently, and we're working together now on a broader more strategic partnership to move through Phase II and beyond.
Melanie Senior
executiveOkay. Alan, do you want to comment on any of that or Sarah covered the main features on it? Perhaps you can talk about the sort of milestones. I know there are some questions around timing and things.
Alan Lotvin
executiveSo I think we are extremely excited by the opportunity to work with Sarah and the Arecor team on AT278. I think the opportunity to put rapid-acting U500 in the Twist device creates real clinical advantages for patients. We have -- with 3 cc, that's 1,500 units, which is a week's worth of wear for most -- every -- almost every patient with type 1 and a good chunk of the patients with type 2. Now we don't have a week approval yet. I want to be clear. I don't want to get out ahead of myself. But by the time we get through the development path for AT278, we would anticipate having done the work to have long wear infusion sets as well.
Melanie Senior
executiveBrilliant. And your -- I think your system -- so I'm interested just looking back to the twiist system and your experience on the market already. So obviously, using other kinds of insulin, not rapid-acting U500 yet. What's the most typical use at the moment then out there and the feedback you're getting so far from just the system in itself?
Alan Lotvin
executiveYes. I mean, so far, it's been very positive, right? We have a fairly good sized, sample size of people in our limited launch. We're using U100, both Humalog and NovoLog. We're seeing time and range that we've reported in abstract form at 75.6% of time, people are time and range. We've demonstrated that, again, in abstract form, when we alarm for an occlusion, people's time -- people's glucose is 153. And while it's rising quickly in the half hour before that, it starts coming down right after that. So we think that's a contributor. And again, when I mentioned that we can measure precisely how much insulin we give with each microshot, well, obviously, if I measure it and it's 0, I know that there's an occlusion. And everyone using these devices gets occlusion. It's the nature of insulin, forming fibrils under the skin. It's the nature of teflon catheters. So any of that form the infusion sets. So this is an opportunity to create confidence for people that they're receiving insulin when we tell them receiving insulin. And it doesn't force them to rely on their CGM and get to a glucose of 240 or 300, which might take 2 or 3 hours and then 2 or 3 hours come back down. So we're seeing really, really positive results, and we have a pretty long waiting list of people who are eager to try the device. So, so far, so good. Like as I said to my team, I'm sure we're going to run into bumps in the road. I mean we have a lot of very good, very experienced competitors who spent 10 years or more optimizing systems, and we're still new, but we're moving really quickly.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. No, great to have innovators. I just to be clear, this is type 1 cleared. These are type 1 patients primarily for now?
Alan Lotvin
executiveYes. We have a clearance for type 1. We've completed our type 2 trial. We would anticipate collecting all that data and submitting at the end of the first quarter or so and having presumably, assuming everything goes the way we expect, having a clearance in the beginning of the second half of 2026 for type 2 with twiist.
Melanie Senior
executiveBrilliant. And then, Sarah, coming back to you, that sort of dovetails with the time frame for the partnership, the plan to start the Phase II clinical study with the marriage of the 2 products would be the end of next year then is in line.
Sarah Howell
executiveYes. I mean, as I said, we're working on the -- all of the activities that are needed to get into that clinical study. We've had positive feedback from the FDA. So we'd be targeting second half of this year to be in a position to initiate that clinical study.
Melanie Senior
executiveBrilliant. Very exciting. I want to come back to you, Dr. Blevins, if I may, after this. And obviously, come in as and when you like as well. So let's say, let's be optimistic. Let's say this all goes to plan and this combination does arrive. How much of a difference would that make to the lives of some of your patients? And maybe you could describe a sort of typical day now and what's involved in a typical day or week in the future with whatever it will be called the twiist-Arecor combination.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeYes, I think it's going to help. I think it's going to make it -- if everything kind of follows through and happens, and I think it's going to make it, so that they have to flow with the machinery and the paraphernalia less. And that is going to help not only compliance, but we know that the machine is going to work for them. I always tell people, you got a machine working for you while you're sleeping, to keep you from getting low and to keep you from getting high during the day. Of course, we'd like to see evolutions in this automation and something that would actually handle meals spontaneously, that's still kind of in the works. But even if people have to announce meals, it's going to really help. And again, the anemia prolongation is an insulin that's too dilute that has to be changed out too often. And the concentrated insulin is really going to help. I hope it's not lost on the audience when I mentioned those 2 patients who I did see this morning. It's not unusual in an endocrine practice to see people on high-dose insulin type 1, type 2. Remember, type 2s don't have a lock-on overweight and insulin resistance. Type 1s have it too. And -- but those 2 patients would have to change their -- the whole system out, their infusion set out every day or 1.5 days. With the U500, as Alan pointed out, they could go on -- that's 3 cc is 1,500 units. And both of those patients could go for a full week with the appropriate pump that worked. and they get better control probably better time and range and because they have a pump working for them all the time, they have an automated system. So I think patients will really like it, and it will make life better and let them not think as much about diabetes. And I could go on and on about that. But people tell me every day, they have to think too much about having the extra bolus, change everything out, and it's a challenge.
Melanie Senior
executiveThat's exactly what I hear from experts and from friends and family that they just don't want it to be visible. They don't want to think about it, just not have it there. So no, thank you. I can see how that -- and just this sort of changing and replacing it, is that a sort of 10-minute job or a 5-minute job or a half hour job normally? Give us a sense of that.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeI can say yes to all of those. It just all depends. It's a pain. And the people of diabetes do so well. They have to take on this whole new dimension to life, and they do it. And it's a hassle. It's a lot of -- lot of expenses, a lot of changing things and paying attention to things that people who don't have diabetes don't have to pay attention to. making life more automated for them would be very helpful.
Melanie Senior
executiveYes. And I can definitely see what's driven Sarah and her team and Alan and his team to create this. Look, I'm -- at this point, there are lots of questions coming in. So I want to just have Jake from the platform just come in and tell everyone how to submit questions because we're going to just carry on. We've got a couple more questions I want to ask and topics we want to bring up. But just so that you all know in the audience how to do this. There are plenty, but maybe not everyone does. So Jake, could you just tell everyone how to do the submission of questions?
Operator
operatorAbsolutely [Operator Instructions]
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. And then I will, if I may, moderators privilege come in with a question of my own. And that's really being optimistic and assuming this does come together, which I very much hope it does and does sound like a really valuable combination. We've heard that there's huge pressure on insulin pricing in the U.S. We saw it with the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act, et cetera. Novo Nordisk, even I think, has discontinued some of the insulin presentation. So I think it's something in many people's minds. And I wonder how you're thinking about -- I mean, you mentioned your coverage, Alan, for the device, but -- how are you thinking about marrying that drive to increase access and improve lives with the sort of commercial realities, if you like, of companies? Alan, Sarah, either of you.
Sarah Howell
executiveDo you want me to start, Alan?
Alan Lotvin
executiveWhy don't you start, Sarah, and then I'll follow on.
Sarah Howell
executiveExactly. Yes, I mean it's a really great question. And partly that is -- I'd answer that from the AT278 perspective is that we're taking existing insulin here. This isn't a novel insulin. So we don't have those significant risk in terms of efficacy and development, but also the costs related to that. So this is an insulin that's already available at scale. We developed a novel formulation of that. So we're not adding a cost burden here or cost of goods burden, which is really important. But we're able to use that and we're using our technology to significantly improve it as we've talked about, so highly concentrated and that superior rapid acting profile, but we're not bringing cost into that system as well. And what I would say is a general point here, this is around improving outcomes for people with diabetes. It's lowering burden, but also with that fast profile, the algorithms, the technology marrying them up with aid to improve those outcomes. If we improve the health of people with diabetes, we reduce the cost and the cost burden for those individuals, both for themselves and payers, but also for health care systems as well. Alan?
Alan Lotvin
executiveYes. So Melanie, it's a really good question. So my last job prior to founding Sequel was -- I was the President of CVS Caremark, the largest pharmacy benefit manager in the country. And when we started Sequel, we started with a mandate of bringing innovation at lower cost. In every other field of life, like things get better and cheaper, right? You think about -- people have said with semiconductors, if cars were like semiconductors, they would get 1 million miles to the gallon and cost $0.84. That doesn't happen in medicine, and we were committed to making that happen. So despite the fact that we believe we have a completely differentiated device, huge advantages in technology, we brought it to market at an incredibly attractive price. That was recognized by the payer community, which is why we were on everyone's formulary prior to launch. We haven't -- Sarah and I have talked about this, obviously, we haven't set the pricing for the combined product yet or AT278 in our device. But my perspective would be coming to market with a different message than innovation at a reasonable price is not a winning strategy because if you have a better product and you have a lower price, it is a no-brainer to get coverage. If you have a better product and it's a much higher price, you really have to start proving the advantages. And so given the size of the market, given everything that Sarah mentioned about the economics of the development, we believe, and we have a lot more work to do, but we believe that we'll be able to bring this to market at an extremely competitive price and so -- I appreciate that. But again, create the better outcomes without massively increasing spend in the country.
Melanie Senior
executiveYes. And there are 90 people -- 90 million people per your figures, Dr. Blevins, on insulin globally. So you're right about the market. Correct. Okay. So the audience, I know, has been very patient. So I'm going to come to some of the questions. And actually, a nice segue actually because there's a question about the market size. Potential number of patients in the U.S. that need intensive insulin therapy, roughly what does that equate to in relation to potential market value? Does anyone have that? I've got a few overall market figures. But in terms of intensive insulin, any ballpark?
Sarah Howell
executiveYes, I can take that. So from an insulin perspective, so as we spoke about earlier, in the U.S., there's around 4 million people with diabetes on intensive insulin therapy. And if we think about what we've spoken about today, we look at the first adopters here as being in 2 patient segments where we've got the highest unmet need for an AT278 with AID twiist device combination here. So you've got 1 million -- around 1 million people that need more than 100 units a day. So these are the people that are not getting even 3-day wear today because of that constraint on the 300 cc with 100 unit per insulin. So there, if we can bring a concentrated rapid-acting insulin to market and AID that they can access AID systems. So you've got potentially 1 million more people that can move across to AID. And then you've got people that are already on pumps, right? So they're already on pumps or they're thinking about it, they're close, nearly pumpers, they tend to be called there. So for them, benefits could be longer wear time without running out of insulin, but also with a superior profile here, innovation on the algorithm side, of course, within the AID system and be more aggressive with that algorithm to improve time and range without the patient having to do anything. This is done by the system. We talked about cars, automation here. They get -- they're able there to benefit from a tuned algorithm faster insulin. It's doing it for them getting a better time and range with no additional burden themselves there. And there's around 1 million people in the U.S. currently using pumps and AID systems. So that's half of the 4 million patient population. If we translated that through to insulin revenue, taking into account, Melanie, everything you just said around pricing and the impact of the IRA Act, et cetera, that still translates to more than a $3 billion per annum in revenue opportunity. If you took all 4 million people with diabetes, you dream into the future, they all move across the AID. If they're all on AID there, that's closer to a $5 billion per annum insulin opportunity. But this is all about those segments, looking at the highest unmet need, you're looking at half of those 4 million initially. But of course, it's still a significant opportunity without, as Alan said, and I agree entirely with them here, put more cost burden either on to the patient, the payer or the health care system. So this is looking at it on parity as of today.
Melanie Senior
executiveThat's such a key point. I mean the market size here, over $100 billion when we talk about all of diabetes devices and therapies growing CAGR, what, 11%, 12%, even with all this price pressure, as you say, Sarah. I mean that means almost $300 billion total market size by the end of next decade. So even just a segment of that, I think, is worth an awful lot. And maybe we can come just briefly back to you, Dr. Blevins on the GLP-1s. I mean so much of the industry has been talking about these wonder drugs and what they're doing for everyone and all the problems they're solving. Can you just help us understand how much you're seeing of, I don't know, the delay to the need to use insulin and give us a sense of the extent to which they are changing, if at all, this dynamic, this need, the size of this market we're talking about.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeYes. It is certainly delaying the need to start insulin the people type -- it's really not having that much impact. Some impact in type 1. It's not approved in type 1 at this point, as you know. I hope it will be at some point. And they are -- they're great drugs, and we use them a lot. And there are significant -- everyone should know and any clinician out there knows, there are a significant number of people who can't tolerate those and who just can't continue or won't continue and over time. So it's not like everybody with type 2 is going to be on a GLP-1. They're not. And so they do delay the need to start insulin sometimes and reduce the dose sometimes, but not always. So the amount of -- the number of people on multiple daily injection continues to be really not that changed. And the doses of insulin sometimes reduced. And then people do have this progression and don't necessarily stay on the GLP-1. So GLP-1s have not really -- they've reduced the timing of starting insulin. They reduced the doses, no doubt about that. But they still -- insulin used in MDI and high-dose insulin here to stay.
Melanie Senior
executiveGot it. Got it. Okay. Let's carry on with our questions. So there is a couple of questions about other concentrated insulins, highly concentrated insulins. One saying what else is being developed and another specifically asking about Humulin, which I think you alluded to -- or maybe you didn't, Sarah, and why that can't be used to bring the same benefits to something like Alan's twiist device as the Arecor insulin can be. So perhaps you can take them both, Sarah, the sort of what else is in development and then specifically Humulin U500?
Sarah Howell
executiveSure. So on the first one, I'll answer that really quickly. There is no clinical data out there certainly that we're aware of any highly concentrated so 500 unit per mL ultra-rapid acting insulin. The reason for that is it's actually really hard as you concentrate up insulin, you get that blunting of the time action profile. So we've done something quite special there to enable that. There have been some developments in the past, but they haven't got further than preclinical development there. The second question is correct, and I think Dr. Blevins has touched on this is the -- there is Humulin R U500. It's insulin from Eli Lilly. We did actually include this within our clinical study, our type 2 clinical study, and it shows exactly that you have this really flat profile. So it wasn't designed as it's not a rapid-acting mealtime insulin. But people do use it off-label in insulin pump, require very high insulin doses. They're using it off-label in insulin pumps today. Of course, AT278 would address that problem. You get all the benefits of getting enough insulin on board to get to 3 days, for example, in an AID system, but that rapid profile, so you get a very precise blood glucose control and time and range.
Melanie Senior
executiveBrilliant. Thank you. Great. Sarah, I'm going to stay with you, there's a question -- 2 questions actually from Suraj Kalia from Oppenheimer. Thank you for those both. One for Sarah. Are there any modifications and what are they needed for AT278 PK/PD profile-wise, in order to match it with the existing AID systems, if at all, and how complicated would that be? I guess it's other than twiist, I think, is the question.
Sarah Howell
executiveYes. It's actually probably the other way around actually, thanks for the question. So in terms of the PK/PD profile for AT278, that's fixed. We've shown that clinically in type 1s and type 2s and that superiority actually compared to the 100 unit per mL insulin available today. But there is that opportunity to fine-tune with the AID system. So this is more on the technology side, so more sitting in Alan's area actually that we can fine-tune that algorithm to match the kinetics of AT278 to get the best out of fast absorption and greater glucose lowering profile that time and range. You can do nothing, by the way. You could use existing algorithms, AT278 will work. It does work with existing algorithms there. But if we really want to get the best and see those improvements translated into outcomes for patients, then we do that by fine-tuning the algorithm and matching it to the kinetics of AT278.
Melanie Senior
executiveRight. So the kinetics don't change [indiscernible]. Alan, question of insulin blockage and inaccurate dose delivery with current AIDs, walk us through twiist mechanism of delivery and how you'll compare relative to these other things, I guess, in terms of minimizing inaccuracy.
Alan Lotvin
executiveSo the way the system works, and I'll try to be quick, is it directly measures the volume delivered. And the way we directly measure volume delivered is I'm sure everyone here has either blown across a Coke bottle or a beer bottle, made a noise, drank a little bit, made another noise and it was deeper. The physics of that is remarkable. It's complicated. And essentially, by measuring the difference in tone, we can measure precisely how much is given. We know when 0 is given. So that's how we do it. Because we measure exactly how much we gave, we know exactly when -- how much -- let's just say you wanted to give -- you never give this much, but make the math easy, 1 unit per minute. I give a dose, I measure it, it's 0.98 for all sorts of reasons, right? There's compliance, okay, great. Instead of waiting a full minute for the next dose, I give it 2% sooner. So very quickly, the trumpet curves asymptotically approach your desired number. That's how we do it. The second part is we don't rely on building up a pressure head to notify people for occlusion, right? If we give 0, we know it's occluded. The 2 things that we did, there was a paper that was published in the IEEE journal that was done by an engineer. They clamped all the devices, ran it at a basal rate of 0.3 units an hour and said, when does it alarm? The twiist system alarms at 1 hour, other systems alarm between 4 and 23 hours. 4 to 23 hours of no insulin overnight, your glucose is not where you want it to be. That's published in the IEEE journal. In -- the other question is like, is this a big deal clinically? And Dr. Blevins is probably better suited for me than me. I'll give you 2 pieces of data, though. Anecdotally from survey data, we've learned that pretty much once a month, everyone with diabetes has unexplained hyperglycemia. And they got to say, is it my pump? Is it my set? Did I do something wrong? In 2021 and 2022, there was a paper published looking at the incidence of pump-related hyperglycemia that was reported to the FDA that resulted in either ICU admissions or death. And for a 19-month period in 2019 overlapping with COVID, 745 people in the United States were admitted to an ICU or died for pump-related severe adverse events and were reported to the FDA. And not everything FDA reported to the FDA. Now I want to emphasize, these devices are safe and they're still better than injections on every level, every device. And the people who come before us have done a fantastic job of building the market. But there's another bar that we've been able to bring to bear in terms of making these devices even better. And so we think this is an important part. We hear from people with MDI that they want to be sure that they're getting insulin. But again, the onus is on us to do the clinical trials, which we're doing to prove that there's a real clinical benefit here. And thus far, we've been very happy with it.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. Thank you. I'm going to rattle through because I want to make sure we get through these in the last 10 minutes or so. We sort of alluded to this, but we weren't explicit. Does the combination of twiist and AT278 permit a wear time of a week plus Dr. Blevins or who can take that. We were sort of at a week, where we.
Alan Lotvin
executiveYes. Let me just grab that quickly because it's not a question. The insulin is the insulin, it's 500 units. It's 1,500 units in a 3 cc cartridge. And Dr. Blevins very articulately said how much people need. The rate-limiting step there is getting the approval for a long wear infusion set. That's all -- that's the -- and for a week use of the cassette in our device. That's work that we're doing and taking on. So our intent would be by the time we get to sort of clear AT278 in end of 2027, beginning of 2028, we would have that work already done.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. So Frank, the answer to your question is, hopefully, yes. In theory, if it all goes to plan.
Alan Lotvin
executiveThat was much better answer than mine. Thank you Melanie.
Sarah Howell
executiveI just to add to that, Melanie, that means because it's 1,500 units in a 3 mL cartridge, that means -- it's almost everybody because if you're on 200 -- even up to 200 units [indiscernible] user, you're are going to get.
Melanie Senior
executiveYes. Got it. And Alan, I think you just said this, but again, if anything -- if everything went smoothly, let's keep that caveat in place. What would be the earliest we could expect commercialization of a combined pump with AT278 launch? Say it again?
Alan Lotvin
executiveAgain, I think Sarah and I have got for 2028.
Sarah Howell
executiveYes. So we've mapped out that development and regulatory pathway. Obviously, we've got a good handle on Phase II after the feedback from the FDA. We're assuming a pretty traditional Phase II, then Phase III clinical study. We'll be looking to innovate there as well as much as we can. But if we assume that pathway that we do Phase II break, then Phase III, you're looking at being in a position to file for approval in early 2030.
Alan Lotvin
executiveThat sounds wrong. I'm sorry. I was way off. That's why you let the experts answer the question and not me.
Melanie Senior
executiveEarly 2030, but you said -- you hinted at innovation. I mean, could we talk about innovation in the size and design of the studies because as Frank come back with it, how big do the studies have to be? Is there a way to get a rapid gout with relatively fewer patients now given, as you say, the low risk on the -- in terms of new chemical entity, right, or new biologic....
Sarah Howell
executiveI mean these are all really great questions. And partly it depends here. There's a partly it depends answer with the FDA as well, but we have seen innovation there. What we're assuming at the moment is the Phase II -- we know because we've been to the FDA Phase II clinical study will be around 90 patients. It's less than 100 patients there. Phase III will be less than 500 patients. So we're not looking at huge remember, the safety and efficacy of insulin is already known there. And I think then the question becomes, can we innovate any further around that? Can we do an adaptive design, go from Phase II straight into Phase III? Do we really need that many patients if we're demonstrating can we use time and range again in Phase III. There's a huge number of questions there. But until we go and get that formal feedback, which we can only do at certain times, we won't know for sure. So that time frame I've just given is assuming a traditional no further innovation in that regulatory development time line. Of course, we'll be looking together to -- we want to bring this to patients...
Melanie Senior
executiveAnd of course, I mean, the FDA is not a fixed entity either right now -- a lot of change going on there. And also what we've seen with biosimilars, you could see some of that feed through into efficient development of similar biological entities. Okay. Fantastic. A question for you, Alan, undetected occlusion, what happens, acknowledges that less -- should be less likely with twiist, are there any data on how frequently this happens? I'm sorry if you already -- you talked about occlusions. Did you want to say anything else about data-wise?
Alan Lotvin
executiveNo. I think we would just say with twiist, there generally aren't undetected occlusions will let you know in an hour, right? So -- and what happens is it depends on the causes, right? Sometimes you have to change the site. Sometimes you just have to roll over, right? Just like sometimes just the way the person is laying against their site. So there's not a single answer there.
Melanie Senior
executiveAnd when you say within an hour, I mean, you test these things and they -- that's what you -- that's the maximum time this thing takes when you force occlusion tests on it.
Alan Lotvin
executiveWhen you -- so we -- there's 2 things that we've done. So when we did this clamp study, it was -- basically the average alarm was at 1 hour. In our IFU, I think the exact date -- the exact time at basal insulin is 64 minutes or something. So there -- this is an FDA requirement for reporting in the IFU of when you do and [indiscernible].
Melanie Senior
executiveOkay. Okay. Okay. And brilliant timing, isn't it? Look at this. I've got another -- just a final question from Edwards. Given that the insulin is 5x as concentrated, does that create additional device challenges? And or is the twiist device more or less fit for purpose as is, e.g., will the reservoir remain at 3 mL and the pump battery, will that need to be amended? Or will it need to last longer than it does?
Alan Lotvin
executiveYes. So all good questions. So essentially, the device as it stands is sort of perfectly adequate and perfectly suited for the use of AT278. We would change the algorithm just to divide -- you have to divide the amount of insulin, the amount of volume you give, which takes care of some of the battery problem, right? Because if you -- the battery has a buffer, but if you're firing 1/5 as often, it's just -- that's easy. I think that the biggest challenge that we see is it has nothing to do with the twiist device, but it has to do with making sure that people don't accidentally put U500 in the U100 device. Many times, there may be people and families who are using -- some who may be using U100, some who may be using U500. And in some of the conversations that we've had with the regulatory authorities, like demonstrating the ability to -- with a great U500 that's got great pharmacokinetics out in the wild -- a lot of it -- hopefully, a lot of it out in the wild, we want to be sure that we're protecting people from therapeutic misadventures associated with putting the wrong insulin in the wrong device. So that requires a little bit of work. We have an approach, but the device is pretty much as it stands. I think we can make [Technical Difficulty] bigger or smaller as we choose, by the way.
Melanie Senior
executiveIt's kind of putting petrol in the diesel car or vice versa, whichever one it is, that doesn't do well for the car.
Alan Lotvin
executiveNeither one does well.
Melanie Senior
executiveLook, we've reached our hour. This has been absolutely fascinating. I want to allow you all and Dr. Blevins first, just a final very short remark, either of excitement or promise or whatever here before we close off. So Dr. Blevins, you're excited about this innovation, I assume.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeYes, this has been really fun to talk about this. I've learned quite a bit myself. First of all, AID systems are highly desirable for people with type 1 and type 2, clearly. And we're moving into this zone in type 2. The Arecor U500 has very nice PK/PD. You saw it. I won't go into it any further. And we need a device, AID device that is tweaked to use it. And I think that will be very helpful for our patients, our type 1s on high dose insulin, higher dose usage and also our type 2s.
Melanie Senior
executiveFantastic. Sarah, final words?
Sarah Howell
executiveYes. I mean, obviously, we're really excited about it. I think there's a real opportunity here to reduce burden and improve outcomes and importantly, increase access to more people with diabetes can use AID systems. And we know that will improve outcomes there. So on a practical level, we're already working busily together, looking forward to being in a position to enter into that Phase II clinical study later this year.
Melanie Senior
executiveFantastic. Alan?
Alan Lotvin
executiveSo I'll just be very quick. We are focused on access. We're focused on expanding the utility of these devices. And as a company, we're focused on providing choice for people living with diabetes. And we've been fortunate to uncover a lot of really interesting companies that we've been able to create relationships with. And this is the poster trial for that. And to the extent that we can help accelerate the development of AT278, to all the points Dr. Blevins made, we think it's a really great opportunity for people living with this disease.
Melanie Senior
executiveGreat. Well, look, that's a much better conclusion than I could have put together. So I'll leave it with that. I think what I found most exciting is this access point as well and just making sure this gets to everyone who needs it. So look, thank you to you, the panelists, for your development efforts, for your clinical service, for your time today, and thank you all in the audience for your questions and for your attention. This is being or has been recorded, and I think is going to be up on the website of Arecor and Sequel if you have colleagues who want to listen or if you want to relisten. But with that, I'd like to issue a final thanks and wish you all a really nice rest of the day. Thank you.
Thomas Blevins
attendeeThanks, Mel.
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