Arise AB (publ) (A4W.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to the Arise Q4 Report 2023. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers. CEO, Per-Erik Eriksson; and CFO, Markus Larsson. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. This is Per-Erik, and good morning to you all. I will start with a brief intro on Arise as a company. We were founded in 2007 and listed on NASDAQ in 2010. Currently, we are 67 employees. That's included down the acquisitions we did last year, Pohjan Voima and Fenix Repower. We have 3 different business segments, the starting -- the start of Arise production part, 139 megawatts own production, corresponding to some 340 gigawatt hours in budgeted annual production. The second leg is the development business, including wind, solar, energy storage. Currently, we have a project pipeline of roughly 6.9 gigawatts. And also, we can mention that we have, since inception, divested some 1.5 gigawatts. The third leg and the third business segment is the solutions, what we call solutions, which is our services business. Currently, we have some 2,000 megawatts or 2 gigawatts under management and some 650 megawatts wind under construction. I could also mention that we have 2 projects in late-stage construction. We have Lebo, which will be included in our own production portfolio soon. We expect to have Lebo taking over in commercial operation in March this year. And we also have a project called the Twin Peaks around Solleftea, 240 megawatts that we expect to have taken over in commercial operation this -- quarter 1 this year. With that, I hand it over to Markus.

Thank you, Per-Erik. Yes. So looking a bit into the numbers for Q4. In our view, very, very strong quarter. We increased net sales to SEK 191 million, partly impacted by the sale of Fasikan. EBITDA came in at SEK 82 million and EBIT at EUR 65 million which also was a significant increase compared to the same period last year. Profit after tax totaled SEK 77 million, which corresponded to some SEK 1.81 per share, which is more than double compared to the same period last year. We had a strong operating cash flow of SEK 180 million, and we had cash flow after investments at SEK 123 million and the investments obviously primarily related to Lebo. I get back to the production in a bit during the quarter, Per-Erik mentioned Ranasjo-Salsjohojden project, we saw during Q4 decreased uncertainties related to that project. So this meant that we reinitiated our revenue recognition by another EUR 1 million. We also continued our geographical expansion through the acquisition of 70% in Fenix Repower, we're active in Norway and Ukraine. The Board also proposes a dividend of SEK 1.20 per share, which is a 20% increase compared to the last year. If we look into our segments, development, posted SEK 56 million EBITDA, as mentioned, affected by Fasikan and also the revenue recognition in Ranasjo-Salsjohojden. During the quarter, we mentioned also that the segment saw some FX headwind as our revenue recognition is in euro for all projects. Portfolio grew in total during the quarter by 1,000 megawatts roughly, and that was included the SCA partnership. Within our own production, we saw somewhat weaker winds than normal, but also some maintenance during the quarter. Still, we managed to reach higher production than the same quarter last year. The realized price was SEK 727 per megawatt hour, which was above market average once again. And as Per-Erik mentioned, Lebo will be included in this segment once taken over. Within our Solutions business, we continue to see benefits from economies of scale with Skaftåsen and now also the addition of Fasikan. So this was another quarter with positive EBITDA contribution, which we're very happy with. In terms of the pipeline, it now amounts to almost 7 gigawatts. Worth mentioning is that we see really good progress in Finland, where projects mature according to plan as well as new projects being added. All in all, good progress throughout the portfolio, and we're working hard to mature with our early-stage projects. Looking at the pricing on the left-hand side, this was another quarter where our hedging contributed to a realized price, which was above the market average, which I mentioned previously. We also see that market prices have somewhat normalized a bit, but they remain now on relatively high levels from a historical perspective. This also then contributes to our EBITDA within production, as illustrated on the top right-hand side. Our LTM EBITDA remains very strong and solid, and this was the fifth quarter in a row with increasing LTM EBITDA. On the hedging side, more or less the same as last quarter, we made a small additional volume to Q1 2024. But otherwise, we continue to monitor the market closely, primarily regarding 2025 volumes. Now I hand back over to you, Per-Erik.

Thank you. Market development, some sum up what happened during the quarter. You can see it on the left-hand side, the graphs on spot in the upper left, and you can see forward prices calendar '25 down, below that in -- on the left hand. Some comments on the market, starting with the spot prices. We saw a quite cold start of the winter, which pushed away the prices -- spot prices during winter higher. We have also seen some improving capture rates if you compare to 2022, a bit softer market and not as volatile between different hours during the day. Which improved the capture rates, which are on a -- I would say, a more normal level now. Looking on the forward markets. In the short term, you could see that winter prices were pushed up on dry and cold weather starting after winter. In the longer run, the longer term, you can -- forward price is a bit softer, weaker demand, very much influenced by European prices on a lower level. And the continental power prices has been impacted by high gas storage levels, keeping prices down, very much influenced by a quite mild winter in Continental Europe. We should also keep in mind that gas market still is very sensitive to potential supply disruptions. You could also --I could also mention that the consumption has decreased in Continental Europe, which had some impact on forward prices, which had impact also on the Nordic forward prices. With that said, I think we change slides. Looking at the planned activities for '24. We have a strong focus to continue to grow our project portfolio in core markets and within all technologies. As mentioned before, with the acquisitions we did last year, we're present in more markets this year, except Sweden. You can see -- you can see the green markets there, except Sweden, we have boots on the ground now in Finland, Pohjan Voima. We have also established a staff in -- through Fenix Repower in Norway and Ukraine. And we have since 2 years back in time, ongoing operations with the team in the U.K. as well. So we have a bit more market presence now versus the years before. We have a quite strong focus also on to mature the early-stage projects into late-stage projects, which means that they are closer to a transaction or closer to ready to build, I should say. We have an ambition to have at least one project sale during '24. I would be extremely disappointed if we don't manage that. So that's a clear target. We are -- as we did 2 company transactions last year, we have some integration works to do this year. I think it succeeded very well with Pohjan Voima during '23. And now we start with Fenix Repower as well this year, a big focus on that as well. We have some ongoing construction projects, which requires some attention, of course. As said, we have Lebo close to take over and also Ranasjö-Salsjöhöjden. And Lebo, also as said, we will be then included in our -- for next quarter, I hope to have Lebo included in our production portfolio. We continue to evaluate acquisition opportunities, could be product portfolios, could be companies, could also be operational assets in our existing and in new geographies. So that's a work that is continuing -- continuously ongoing work. With that said, I think we go to the last slide, some concluding remarks. We had a very strong quarter and a strong year. Actually, the second best earnings we had so far in Arise, which we are very happy about. At the same time, we had strong growth during '23 in the portfolio, and we are established now in a few new markets, which is satisfying. I think we have proved that we deliver recurring profits now and also shareholder value evidenced by the fact that we have dividends last year for the first time, and we'll have this year as well and ongoing buyback share program as well. We had an intense '23, 2 company acquisitions. We did one major project sale, and we also entered into 2 different large-scale partnerships. We have expectations on '24 as well to be another good year in general, supported by strong production revenues. We have attractive price hedges in place. And we expect, as said, to do project sales as well during '24. With that said to sum up, I would say that we are well positioned to deliver on our financial targets that we communicated in September last year. With that, I think we go over to the Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Hanna Grimborg from Handelsbanken.

Hanna here from Handelsbanken. So thanks for the presentation, and I have a couple of questions. So firstly, what's the outlook on the price trends for selling projects? Do you think you'll get paid more for projects per megawatt in 2024 than you did in 2023?

Yes. I think you can say that the conditions have improved. And one factor is that can we expect CapEx to be a bit softer versus what we've seen in '23 where we had a bit of a perfect storm with quite strong inflation. And on top of that, you had the suppliers increasing the margins at the same time. We believe that the competition will start working again on the supplier side when it comes to wind. We have already seen on solar that prices came down quite much on solar panels, but we can -- also on batteries, we see that prices are decreasing a lot with decreasing raw materials on batteries. Looking on the investor universe, we still see a lot of appetite in the market, and there are also a shortage of good projects in the market on the sell side. So we believe that we will see good valuations this year, perhaps better than last year and also a bit impacted by -- you can see price forecast has moved up a bit as well versus last year. So there are a few parameters that we think is on the positive side.

All right. Great input. Okay. So my second question is that you said that you are evaluating expanding into new geographies. Which geographies are you primarily looking at?

I would say that we are quite open minded. That -- there are a few markets in Europe where you see that there are a lot of coming demand for new power. And I don't want to specify any markets right now. You see we had a quite -- perhaps a bit surprised for -- surprising that we are going into Ukraine, which is a bit difficult market, of course, when you look at risks. But on the other hand, it didn't cost a lot of capital, and you can also see enormous potential in the future as well, of course, depending on the war. But we are actively looking into other geographies in Europe, I can say.

All right. Great. And my last question, are you planning to renew your share buyback mandate?

I mean that's the currently ongoing -- the ongoing mandate is to the next AGM. So that would be that question should perhaps be directed to the Board and ultimately to the general meeting, but yes.

The next question comes from Roald Hartvigsen from Clarksons Securities.

[indiscernible].

Roald, sorry, Your line is cutting off. I'm sorry, but it's totally impossible to hear the question. I don't know if you're on a bad line or...

Okay. We'll catch up later.

Okay. Thanks, Roald.

The next question comes from Mattias Ehrenborg from Redeye.

Mattias Ehrenborg from Redeye. Obviously, 2023 was extremely eventful for Arise. But looking at 2024, it looks pretty calm in comparison. You already touched on what key focus areas you were focusing on here in 2024. But what would you say that your -- what are these focus areas would you say can make an impact in your P&L in 2024 already, apart from the potential transaction?

Well, obviously, we [ give ] production, we expect to have a good outcome as we have in '23 due to the fact that we have the attractive price hedges. And then we are -- we expect to have, as said, at least one transaction done during the year. And so in the end of the day, we expect to have results, good financial results in '24 as well. But the key is really that we managed to do a transaction that we expect to do. We have a few ongoing initiatives in parallel at the moment.

And jumping in here. And as I think you mentioned in the CEO comment period that -- I mean, during -- it was very [ ramped ] for 2023. But behind the scenes, it was quite intense. We're closer to accelerate and mature early-stage projects. So there's a lot more to work with now for 2024 vis-a-vis maybe 5 months ago, what you would have expected.

Yes, it's a good comment.

I understand. I agree as well. You mentioned that the production and you also mentioned Lebo that will be fully operational here in Q1. Is it fair to expect some revenues from Lebo as well in Q1 when it comes to production? Or will it start in Q2, would you say?

Yes. We already had revenues, small revenues from Lebo. And we have -- at the moment, we have 2 turbines in operation and expect to have another -- the remaining 3 in operation in the coming 2 or 3 weeks. And then the formal take over will be end of March, but we will have revenues during commissioning and yes, initial phase of production already in Q1. A bit difficult to say how many percent of the budgeted production that will be the outcome. But yes, we will have some revenues.

Okay. Just getting back to the one transaction that you referred to earlier. Is it possible to tell us anything about technology or capacity for these projects or transactions?

No. We cannot give any input on the size of the projects. But there are different technologies also including wind, so to be clear. So we expect to have -- we expect to do some good transactions this year as well.

Okay. And jumping in there also, Mattias, just for your understanding, as we touched upon, I mean historically, maybe Arise has been a bit like the next project in line is X, and then there's Y and then there's Z. There is a bigger sort of project universe at the moment that are being advanced than maybe historically. That's why it's difficult to pinpoint, this is the one.

Also, we are a bit in a different position now as we were a bit -- we don't need to sell everything at the moment. We can actually try to optimize the values in a different manner since you have a much stronger financial position nowadays.

It's good. But does that mean that you might be more -- I think you mentioned already in your Capital Markets Day earlier here in September when it was that you might be open to bring projects later on in early construction or mid-construction or even construct themselves to be able to just improve the profit generation from the project. Is that something that this could refer to?

Yes, that could be possible as well. And we have the capacity to do it with some limitations, of course, depending on how big the project is. And it's also a matter of how we see the value creation if it's risk rewards is on the right balance in a right way. So say it's a bit case by case, and it's also a matter of size.

Okay. And just briefly on your cost side here. You reported SEK 43 million in cost of sold projects in the quarter. Are these SEK 43 million fully related to Fasikan, or is there something else in this cost as well?

Yes, Mattias, that's fully related to Fasikan. And I think worth mentioning regarding Fasikan, we touched upon it already in the Q3 earnings call, I believe that it -- on the face of it, it's less profitable. And the reason is that Fasikan isn't a full greenfield project, but was rather acquired way back in '16, '17 or something. So as we have communicated previously as well, profit margins for projects, for acquired projects are lower per se. Having said that, we also -- we are still confident in our expectations to achieve profit of SEK 1 million to SEK 2 million per megawatts over time. So then I'd say this is -- this was a period mentioned previously, somewhat of a perfect storm.

Okay. I understand. So just to be clear, taking the revenue into consideration and the cost of the [ project ] and the profit multiple translates into SEK 0.8 million per megawatt. But you still believe that SEK 1 million to SEK 2 million per megawatt is achievable going forward?

Yes.

Okay, just another thing on the cost side. You mentioned that cost for the variable remuneration program was SEK 22 million in the quarter versus SEK 16 million last year. And in 2022 [ Kölvallen ] divestment took place, which obviously generate a very good profit levels. Would you say that this cost increase in Q4 this year related to last year is driven by the number of key activities rather than the profit level that the company has generated? Or what are the main drivers here, what do you say?

It's a combination of what you said regarding the achievements over the year, but it's partly profit driven and partly on the kind of operational side.

Okay. And then looking into 2024, do you think that the level of 2023 will be reasonable for 2024? Or how should investors and analysts think there, do you think?

I mean I would say that it's -- I mean, first of all, it's important to understand that the increase from '22 to '23 is all headcount driven. So it's a bit dependent -- of course, it's depending on the results of the company and whether we achieve our goals. But otherwise, at the same headcount, I would say that the maximum amount would be more or less the same, yes.

Okay. That sounds fair. Just a final question here for me and will get back in line, but I think that would be asked anyway. You have nearly SEK 1 billion in cash on hand here. And [ quite ] the limited capital requirements going forward as things look from the outside of this. What are you planning on doing with this cash balance? Has the M&A landscape opened up or become maybe a bit worse in recent times when it comes to production assets or -- what are your thoughts here?

Yes, I think there is several answers to the question. I mean, we -- first of all, the strong financial position enabled the share buyback program and the increased dividend and that kind of shareholders' distribution. Otherwise, I would say we -- as Per-Erik, I think mentioned, we are looking into a lot of acquisition opportunities, both on the development side, project portfolios, but also could be production assets as well. So where -- we're kind of on the offensive side, if any, if you would choose.

Okay. So going forward in terms of M&A, do you think it's possible for investors to expect something to happen in 2024 then?

It's hard to say in 2024 or not 2024. But again, we're in a position where we -- when we find attractive situations, we could move very quickly.

Just final then, Tormsdale and Finnåberget, 2 projects that are in late-stage development, progressing largely according to plan, looking at the report at least. But you mentioned there are some potential grid constraints related to Finnåberget. What are the risks here in terms of -- yes, what was the risks here -- is it that you could be able to end up -- or could you end up with a lower capacity for the project in the end? And which I assume would affect your profit potential here and also possibly timing?

Yes, I can take that one. We have secured from the beginning since a few years back in time, we have secured rig capacity of 100 megawatts for Finnåberget. Then we got actually from the grid company, another option, which means that we could have a higher capacity of some 200 megawatts, which is a bit above the maximum -- probable maximum capacity in the project. However, there are some question marks on the additional 100 megawatts. If that is doable or not, it's a quite complex picture. It's also connected to some offtakes as well, and that is some requirement for that. So there are some risks that we'll not have 200 megawatts. We don't know yet. It could also be that we end up somewhere in between 100 megawatts and 200 megawatts, we'll see. But at the time being, we will leave 200 megawatts in the portfolio report until we know. So that's the best knowledge we have at the moment.

Okay. So there is some -- in terms of a decision for that, there's nothing that you can disclose as for now, I suppose?

Sorry, can you repeat that, Mattias?

Yes. In terms of the decision for the actual capacity in the end, there's nothing that you can disclose on that time...

No, I think we cannot do that. It's an ongoing dialogue. We still hope that we will do better than 100 megawatts, but we don't know yet. It's an ongoing discussion. And there are some analysis to be made as well in connection to this.

The next question comes from Kaleb Solomon from SEB.

Kaleb Solomon from SEB here. Just 2 questions from me. In Q1, there was a negative working capital effect of SEK 140 million related to prepayments for Fasikan, that was supposed to reverse in Q4 and in the cash flow statement, we see positive working capital effect of SEK 63 million. So my question is, is the entire reversal of the prepayment reflected there? Or should we expect some positive working capital effects in Q1 as well?

Yes. Kaleb, yes, we have the Nordics in Q3 last year, and that has all been released during the quarter. So the reason for it being SEK 67 million is other working capital items.

Okay. And my second question is the kind of share of hedged volumes will decrease as Lebo comes online in Q1. So my question is, are you planning to enter new hedges to kind of stick to the 40% volumes? And two, where are PPAs trading as of now?

Yes. We are looking into some different options there at the moment, and we haven't decided a route yet. It might be that we do a PPA for Lebo. We see it might be that we keep hedges as they are. It might be that we had some hedges as well. So that's still open. But we hope to close our PPA as Plan A.

There are no more telephone questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Yes. So I can take one quick written question, which refers to the current cash balance, which is how much that is, an update of that. It's in the report and it's north of SEK 900 million. Rationale for considering buybacks at the current valuation versus spending on new developments? Well, regarding the rationale for buybacks. I think that's what has been communicated when we initiated it, it's a Board decision. But on the second half of that question regarding buyback versus spending on new development, we are pretty firm that buying back shares and also making dividends to the shareholders does not kind of cannibalize or risk anything regarding our development side and our ability to grow the portfolio from the development side. Question also relate from the same. It was from Green Investment Partners. The expected CapEx spend for the coming 3 years and just pointing out that we don't give any CapEx forecasts. With that, I think we're done answering the questions from the chat. Per-Erik?

Okay. Through the Q&A then. Yes, some last comments from my side then. We can conclude that we are very happy with the results in '23, especially, we are happy with the performance and organization, managing to do 2 company acquisitions and also quite -- one quite large transaction as well on top of that. So I think we had a really good performance, a bit -- I'm happier about the performance versus the result, I must say. We expect '24 to be another good year for the company. As said, we have a quite big focus on growth and to mature early stage to late stage, coming closer to transactions in the portfolio. But all in all, I think we are very well positioned to meet our financial targets and the goals we have in the company. So, so far, so good, I would say. Thank you.