Ariston Holding N.V. (ARIS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Ariston's Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Claudia Introvigne, Head of IR of Ariston. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Ariston Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Call. My name is Claudia Introvigne. I'm the Head of IR. And with me today, there are Maurizio Brusadelli, our CEO; and Riccardo Gini, our CFO. The presentation will last nearly 20 minutes, then we'll open up the session for questions. And as a reminder, for those on the phone, the slide deck is available on our Investor Relations website. I now turn the call over to Maurizio. Thank you.

Thank you, Claudia, and good afternoon also from my side. So, let's start, and I am on Slide 3. After 3 years of exceptional growth, as we all know, 2024 was a year of transition for the thermal comfort industry. Demand for heating solutions in Europe declined significantly with the heating heat pump market contracting by more than 30% in our key countries, and close to minus 50% in Germany. This downturn was primarily driven by the previous year's exceptional growth, adjustment to incentive schemes, and elevated stock levels in distribution channels. Traditional heating solutions, so nonrenewable solutions, however, experienced a less pronounced decline, highlighting their continued relevance today and for the future. Ariston Group with its balanced exposure to both climate comfort and water heating segments demonstrated resilience in this challenging market condition. The water heating market was more resilient. The unprecedented weak demand drove our guidance down during last year to organic revenues declining between minus 12% and minus 15% year-on-year like-for-like, and EBIT adjusted margin at circa 6%. We closed 2024 at EUR 2.6 billion of revenues, down 12.7% year-on-year organic and EUR 160 million of adjusted EBIT with a 6.1% margin in line with our guidance. In particular, in Q4, we achieved an 8.7% EBIT margin, also thanks to our planned and executed efficiency initiatives. Our efforts on demand planning and inventories led us to achieve great results in terms of free cash flow, which closed at EUR 152 million in 2024 compared with EUR 112 million in 2023, despite the huge drop in EBIT, which almost halved. Riccardo will comment on Q4 performance later in the presentation. Let's move now on Slide 4. Here, you see the 5 key pillars of Ariston DNA, which we introduced at the time of our IPO. They are confirmed and working on them, we achieved several milestones in 2024 despite the really tough and difficult external context. We were able to offset the renewables decline, thanks to our technological diversification. We improved all our ESG ratings from EcoVadis, S&P, and MSCI, positioning ahead of the sector average in all the cases. We also obtained the certification of our carbon emission targets from the Science-Based Target initiatives. We continue to invest in our product diversification. Capital allocation was balanced. We added a new production facility in Serbia for climate comfort, and in water heating, we acquired a production site in Egypt. Our global and flexible industrial footprint made it possible to manage effectively our plants in a lower-demand environment. We continue to work on the synergies from the most recent acquisition, the German Wolf, which we realized in 2023. And our M&A team continue to analyze new potential acquisitions. Our financial performance remains strong. We delivered our target efficiency program with a reduction of circa EUR 80 million in OpEx and CapEx, half coming from OpEx. We made an exceptional effort on inventories. We managed very well, and we, as I explained before, delivered a strong free cash flow generation. Our net debt on EBITDA is at 2.1. It was 2.3 in the 9 months. And this is a sound level of financial position and drove the Board's decision to extraordinary distribution to shareholders of EUR 0.08 on 2024 results. All in all, we work for the future in a difficult context as we will show you going forward in the presentation. Now if we move to Slide 6, I would like to give, as usual, a quick reminder on who we are before going into numbers and guidance. We are a player active in thermal comfort with a balanced exposure to water heating and climate comfort. Water heating on the right is a resilient business and our main business outside Europe. It benefits from the presence in markets with a growing population and still low but rising penetration of water heating solutions. Climate comfort on the left includes heating, services, parts, and air handling. In the heating business, our portfolio includes different technologies from gas boilers to heat pumps, hybrid solutions, and other heating systems. The European heating market was in negative momentum in 2024 after the positive peak of 2023 and years before. Let me remind you that in Europe, 71% of 2024 revenues, our presence in heating and water heating is more balanced. Service and parts is a growing business, profitable, accelerating during 2024, given the preference of maintenance versus replacement in Europe. Let's move to Slide 7, where as always, we speak about a market to help you to understand better the magnitude of the move in the market demand. In the last quarter, we presented Germany heating market. And here, there is a quick update for all of you. Germany is our largest market. Total revenue in Germany accounted for circa 20% of our group revenues in 2024. As a reminder, the heating market in Germany had a 4% growth in volumes in the 10 years between 2015 and 2022, and it is mainly a replacement market. The market growth was higher in value, thanks to the enriching mix of high efficiency and renewable solutions. After a growing '22, in '23, we suddenly saw a plus 34% increase in volumes. The German government introduced incentives for heat pumps in 2022. And at the same time, there was a fear that the gas boiler would have been banned from 2024. In 2024, the market normalized with a deep 46% decrease in volumes. This was also impacted by destocking and some regulatory uncertainty caused by the delays in setting up the new IT system, which processes the incentive request. As you can see, the first approval for incentives only came in February. During Q4 2024, we have seen an acceleration in the approvals for incentives by the German government, reaching 151,000 for 2024, also driven by the fear of a potential lack of new incentive with the new government. As you know, in Germany, there will be a new government soon, and we are waiting to see their agenda on green transition. Let me now ask Riccardo to take the lead and provide you more details on our fourth quarter and full year results. Thank you.

Thank you, Maurizio. Let's begin with Slide #8, where we'll first highlight the change in net revenues on a like-for-like basis with Russia deconsolidated from the end of April in both 2023 and 2024 figures, as noted in our previous conference calls. As always, the figures are broken down by primary drivers, organic and FX. There is no M&A contribution as all is captured within the organic category. During this quarter, the FX impact is minimal, primarily affecting our Mexican business. In Q4, revenues declined by 7.3% year-on-year to EUR 727 million, marking an improvement over the full year decline of 13.1%. Organic performance, minus 6.8% year-on-year, remained affected by weak heating markets, particularly European renewables, though showing signs of recovery. Group-wide inventories were successfully cleared. Water heating once again remained more resilient. The decline was mainly driven by volume effects and by unfavorable market mix, while pricing played a limited role affecting mainly a few discontinued products due to regulatory changes. On the positive, our service and parts division continued to deliver strong growth even in this quarter, underscoring the underlying stability of our business. Moving on into Slide #9. We share the sales breakdown by geography. The most notable adjustment remains in our largest region, Europe, which now accounts for 71% of total revenues, down from 74% in the first 9 months of 2023. The net revenues in Europe reached EUR 504 million in Q4, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, an improvement from minus 17.1% in Q3. Largely influenced by softer performance in Germany, France and Italy, mainly within the heating segment, particularly heat pumps. On a positive side, Eastern Europe, U.K., Austria and Belgium delivered revenue growth. In Asia Pacific and Middle East, Africa, net revenues increased by 3.9% year-on-year to EUR 143 million, reversing the negative trend of all the past quarters of the year. Double-digit growth was seen in some key markets. And finally, in the Americas, Q4 revenues were down 6.3% year-on-year to EUR 79 million, reverting the positive trend of the first 9 months. This trend was severely impacted by currency headwinds in Mexico, while the U.S. water heating segment continued to perform steadily. Moving down along the P&L, slide #10 focuses on adjusted EBIT performance. This quarter, the adjusted EBIT margin improved by 240 basis points over the previous quarter, rising to 8.7% from 6.3% in Q3, driven by successful implementation of efficiency initiatives. While the margin remains 220 basis points below last year's level, this is primarily due to operating leverage alongside destocking and mix effects. For context, key adjustments to reported EBIT included EUR 9 million in PPA amortization from past acquisitions. Additionally, it's worth noting the market normalization is facilitating a return to our business typical seasonality. Historical data shows that on average, the adjusted EBIT has been distributed approximately 30% in the first half and 70% in the second half of the year from 2017 to 2021, as illustrated in the accompanying figure. Turning to Page 11. Q4 results boosted the 2024 free cash flow to EUR 152 million, an impressive achievement despite a challenging year. This was primarily driven by our decisive actions to improve inventory and receivables management, leading to a significant turnaround in working capital flow from a EUR 64 million outflow in 2023 to a EUR 99 million inflow in 2024. This positive impact partially offset the EUR 240 million EBITDA decline compared to 2023. And to offer further insight into key performance drivers, a detailed cash flow statement is available in the appendix, and the highlights include CapEx reduced by EUR 43 million to EUR 116 million from EUR 159 million in 2023 aligning with our efficiency goals. A positive contribution of EUR 56 million from provisions and other operating changes, mainly because of the noncash EUR 38 million Russia impairment. Tax payments decreased by EUR 23 million due to lower taxable income. Additionally, the chart on the right shows our 9 months and full year 2024 net working capital decrease compared to 9 months and full year 2023. Notably, our focused working capital management drove to an improvement to the net working capital to net revenue ratio, improving by 4.8 percentage points compared to last year's improvement of 3.8 percentage points. In 2024, the ratio improved to 12.7% compared to 14.9% in 2023. On Slide #12, you'll find an overview of our adjusted net debt movements throughout the year. Hence, starting from EUR 575 million adjusted net debt position at year-end 2023, we saw a positive EUR 152 million contribution from free cash flow in the year, as noted earlier. We also had a cash outflow from acquisitions and perimeter adjustments primarily from the EUR 21 million acquisition of our Egypt plant announced back in February, alongside a modest negative impact of under EUR 3 million from the net financial position adjustment related to the deconsolidation of our Russian subsidiary. Additional movements include a EUR 63 million dividend payment in May, EUR 12 million invested in our buyback program to support LTI plans executed between August and September, a EUR 31 million cash outflow for financial and FX charges and approximately EUR 22 million in noncash adjustments. These noncash items mainly include the mark-to-market impact on derivatives, IFRS 16 lease liability adjustments and exchange rate variations on net financial indebtedness. In summary, despite challenging market conditions and the combined EUR 75 million outflow for dividends and buybacks, we kept our net debt stable through the year. And finally, to close on the slide, our adjusted net cash position stands at EUR 579 million with a leverage of 2.1, down from 2.3 at the end of September, reinforcing our solid financial position. Slide #13 provides a comprehensive overview of the composition of our net financial indebtedness. Compared to year-end 2023, we observed a decrease in our liquidity to EUR 357 million, primarily driven by strategic investments such as the acquisition of the Egypt plant alongside a EUR 63 million dividend payment and EUR 12 million allocated to our buyback program. Additionally, we have proactively repaid less efficient debt ahead of schedule to further optimize our financial position. When we examine our other key indicators, we find that there have been no significant changes compared to our 9 months results. Key parameters such as duration, maturity distribution and the percentage of fixed rate debt have remained stable, reflecting our prudent financial management. Despite the challenging market conditions, our capital structure continues to be robust, providing us with the flexibility to pursue both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. This resilience is further bolstered by our additional EUR 900 million pool of committed unused credit lines, which positions us well for future investments. Finally, on Slide #14, we summarize the distribution proposal that the Board has made to the AGM. As you all know, our dividend policy is based on the distribution of 1/3 of our reported net profit. 2024 was a challenging year, further impacted by extraordinary items such as the Russian entity impairment that brought the bottom line down to just EUR 3 million. The Board has proposed distributing 1/3 of the EUR 89 million adjusted net profit through available reserves. Thus, the distribution proposal amounts to EUR 29 million or EUR 0.08 per share. Now I will hand over the call to Maurizio, who will drive the discussion deeper into our cost initiatives, market trends and future outlook.

Thank you, Riccardo. Sorry, I had an issue with the microphone. Let's proceed with Slide 16. Before speaking about guidance, I would like to give you an update on the series of initiatives that we have launched to defend our margin during last year. We fully execute our 2024 program, which included actions on both OpEx and CapEx with a combined impact of around EUR 80 million, circa 1/2 coming from costs and 2/3 temporary. This was only the first step of our move towards the simplification of our entire operating model, which is taking place and will last for the next 3 years. This program called Fit-2-Win will finally help us to control and reduce fixed costs and to increase profitability from 2025 onwards. You can see that the key areas and action are in the slide. And in a nutshell, we are working on the whole organization in order to create a leaner model with the development of centers of excellence and optimization of our legal entity setup. We are working mainly on the staff functions, including the G&A functions, sales and services, R&D and procurement. IT will act as a backbone of the transformation. The permanent benefits of the Fit-2-Win on our margins is targeting EUR 50 million by 2027, which will be summed up to more than EUR 10 million already achieved as permanent savings in 2024, and to our ongoing efforts on direct cost savings, which will contribute also in 2025. It's now time to speak about guidance, which is strictly linked with the expectation on market demand. On Slide 17, you can see our main geographies and products in order to help you understand the main demand dynamics in the different markets. As you can see on the left side, while in Europe, heating and water heating are more balanced. In the rest of the world, we are present mainly in water heating. Europe is our main geography, representing 71% of our revenues in 2024. It was our weakest region in 2024 with a 16% year-on-year decline due, as I explained, to the heating market decrease. During 2024, we said we expected the recovery of the European heating demand to have a long U-shape. We now see destocking almost finished in Europe with a bit of inventory still present among distributors in Germany, which is anyway improving. The Europe heating market should gradually improve throughout the year with the second half stronger than the first. We assume continuity on incentives in Germany until we will know more from the new government. On pricing, we expect pricing dynamics similar to what we saw last year, with some pressure on products that will be forced to exit from the market as, for example, heating pumps using gas that will be banned as the 410, which will happen by end of 2025. Water heating should continue to be resilient. We expect positive growth from our services and parts business. Outside Europe, we expect Asia Pacific and Middle East to have a positive performance. In America, we see positive sentiment on market demand, which could be anyway impacted by the current uncertainties coming from tariffs. As we already said, 2024 was a bottom year for us. And summing up all the above, we expect some gradual recovery accelerating month after month during 2025. In the mid-term, market dynamics are confirmed. This is a replacement market, which could see in Europe an acceleration in value, thanks to the EU regulation and to lower interest rates. Outside Europe, we expect water heating market to continue to grow, thanks to a growing population and the increasing penetration of water heating solutions. Americas markets will continue the positive trend. Let's now move to Slide 18 to speak about guidance. In 2025, our efforts will focus on market share expansion, investment for future and efficiency initiatives to capture the potential of rising demand. After a tough 2024, we have seen a gradual improvement also in January, mainly thanks to our geographical and product diversification, while we have not seen any tangible change in pricing dynamics coming into 2025. So, for 2025, we expect organic revenues to be between 0% and plus 3% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis, with Russia deconsolidated from 2024 figures, where it accounted for EUR 28 million. In our guidance, we don't factor in tariffs and their impact on economy and inflation given the uncertainty and complexity of possible scenarios. On the profitability side, we expect an EBIT adjusted margin higher than 7%, including as positive, the Fit-2-Win impact planned for 2025 plus additional direct cost savings. Speaking about cash, once again, we remind you all that our cash generation will be in Q4. We will continue to focus on the improvement of the working capital dynamics, while in terms of CapEx, we will invest 5%, 6% on net revenues, the majority in development CapEx. This amount is higher than past guidance. We want to be stronger for the future, accelerating our technology road map. Also, thanks to our EUR 0.9 billion of available credit lines, we continue to assess M&A options. Thank you for your attention. And now I think over to you, Claudia, for the Q&A.

Thank you, Maurizio. We have now completed our presentation, and we are available for your questions. [Operator Instructions] Operator, please open the line. Thanks.

[Operator Instructions] First question is from Brijesh Siya, HSBC.

So a couple of questions from my side. Firstly, on the pricing, you talked about pricing stable and think about pricing to be stable in the future as well. So, anything -- and how does that marry with your market share gain expectations? Or is that market share gain we are talking about, is it in Europe? And how do you want to kind of gain market share? What differentiates your product versus others to have that confidence that you can have market share gain and having pricing stable? Then the second question is on your CapEx guidance of 5% to 6%. Can you just elaborate what kind of development CapEx you are going to do? Is it more related to the kind of the pending CapEx on the heat pump side or anything incremental you're doing in that side? And within that, probably on a capital allocation side, you're talking about M&A being kind of still a driver. But given your balance sheet is 2x, how confident are you to kind of do any kind of mid- or large-sized deals given you haven't done anything in 2024? Is that something in the pipeline for '25? Sorry, it's a little bit more than 2.

Thank you, Brijesh. I will try to answer. So let me start with pricing. I mean, as you said, and I said before, we didn't see anything strange coming and happening in the market, which we didn't see in the last few months. I think you asked as well what can you do on market share keeping pricing. I mean, if I would play in pricing, I wouldn't be in a branded company. I would be in a completely different company. We work on quality technology, and we are on the upper part, the mainstream to upper pricing of the business. So, we don't compete on pricing. What is differentiated our product, as I said, is advanced technologies, connected system. Very high quality and the reputation that we have with our brands in the market since decades, if not centuries. On the second part of the question, which was on CapEx, we want to invest more and the priority on our CapEx are always following a kind of similar path. So, first of all, is technology. I mean, for us, it's very important to continue to be ahead in terms of technology, both in heating and water heating. Then there is automation, then there is digital transformation and then footprint. That's why given, I mean, obviously, the very good results we had on cash last year, the balanced capital allocation we have and what we can achieve, we decided to increase our R&D expenditure, as I explained before, technologies, automation, transformation and we are confident on this. I think you asked as well on the capital allocation. I mean, we feel very well with the balanced capital allocation we have, including the ratio, which is slightly above 2. This is very solid, very strong. It's true that, I mean, you pointed out in 2024, you didn't do any acquisition. But I mean, to do acquisition, you have to have two parties working together. I think we are working on always with a lot of diligent approach with a lot of resilience on both bolt-on acquisitions and strategic M&A. And in case of strategic option, I remind you, as I said before, that we have almost EUR 1 billion of credit line open and available. So, this is what I would answer.

Next question is from Christian Hinderaker, Goldman Sachs.

My first question is on the country mix comment you mentioned on Slide 10 as being a driver of the margin pressure. I just want to understand if we should read that as meaning Europe is higher margin and then maybe delve a little bit deeper within Europe, are there particular country level margin differences to note?

Thank you, Christian. I mean, I think we always said that our mix is more favorable in Central Europe, and as you know, the majority of the market pressure happened in Germany, which is our first market as well. That's why Germany moved from 25% last year to 20% -- sorry, 2023 to 20% in 2024. So that is where we had the margin impact. I don't want to give confusion or different kind of numbers that I always said in the past. And I remind you all that in terms of heating and water heating, we are very, very balanced. They are both profitable with the same margin level. Within heating, obviously, between renewables and fossil, even in that case, the margin level is equal. So, the country mix is different because you know better than me, the cost of a heating heat pump in Germany and in Switzerland, it's much higher than eventually a heating heat pump in Italy and Spain. So that's what we mean with country mix. We didn't mean that our margins are lower outside Europe.

Thank you, Maurizio. Maybe just secondly then, you've got 94% of your revenue in thermal comfort. I just wonder if you could help split that across heating, hot water and service. And then if you had 20% of your revenue, I think, in 2023 from renewables, which spans, I believe, all those areas, where did that figure land at the end of 2024?

Yes. We always said that between heating and water heating, we are balanced, I mean, in terms of revenue. In terms of renewables, this is now a mid-teens percentage of total revenue. I mean, we spoke about 20% in '24. So as expected, went a little bit down. Service and parts improved and they are doing very fine, very profitable, now 15% of the revenue.

Next question is from Alessandro Tortora, Mediobanca.

I have two questions. The first one is on the organic sales outlook, you shared with us. Considering the 0 plus 3%, should we think about, let's say, first half still, let's say, negative territory? And then as you mentioned before, let's say, a return to a more positive growth in the second half? And behind this question is basically Germany, the major country where we are going to see this sequential improvement you just mentioned. So that's the first question.

Thank you, Alessandro. So, I mean, as you know, in terms of quarter dynamics, we had 3 tough quarters in 2024, and quarter 4 was a little bit better. I think you should expect maybe in Half 1 close to 0 and an acceleration in Half 2 that is what we should expect. Now let's see what is happening month after month. And in Germany, the expectation is to see a little bit of a reverse trend versus what we saw last year. You remember that last year, at the beginning of the year, these are public market data, the fossils, so gas and oil were growing faster and the heating pump, obviously, were terrible across the year. So, this year, we probably will see a little bit of a switch with a higher -- a better performance of heating heat pump and a lower performance of gas and oil, especially in Half 1. So, we go one after the other. I think I said before that, I mean, the first 2 months are in line with our expectations. So, let's go and understand what will happen in the other 10.

Okay. Then the second question is on, let's say, the free cash flow expectation for this year. Considering your intention to have this step-up in CapEx, can you also give us an indication on the working capital after the improvement we observed in this last quarter. If you see a further room to decrease the working capital on sales or you deem as enough, this level? Thanks.

Thanks, Alessandro. This is Ricardo. So first of all, I think it's worth noting the results we achieved on the net working capital before we speak about free cash flow as we went down to a percentage, which also in the industry, I think is -- might be perceived as a very good performance, this 12.7% on revenues which improved both versus the end of Q3 when you might recall was 17.5% and versus the end of 2023 when it was 14.9%. So that's something we have achieved. In the meantime, as we -- I mean, are looking forward, we are looking at this kind of achievement as something we want to keep as a goal despite the challenging scenario we are in. Of course, it is also depending the top-line dynamics we will appreciate throughout the year. Taking all of this stuff in mind, plus, as we indicated on the guidance, the CapEx spending commitment, which will likely increase between 5% and 6% of revenues compared to last year and a lighter effect from working capital. I mean, we can expect a lower free cash flow generation in 2025 compared to 2024. I think that would be a fair assumption.

Still a good one, but lower than exceptional '25.

And so if I may, even if it's a third question. This year, let's say, bottom-line net profit was clearly affected by several nonrecurring items. But can you also give us a kind of indication for tax rate, a sustainable level for tax rate for the coming years?

Yes, I think you can continue to count on 25%. That's what we have seen. I mean, tax rate adjusted last year, 2024 was 24.4%. So that's the ballpark of 25% is something you can rely on.

Next question is from Alessandro Cecchini, Equita.

My two questions are the following one. The first one is actually on the, I mean, raw material steel context. I would like to know what kind of level are you in terms of hedging for 2025? And overall, what kind of global context you see for 2025 in terms of headwinds slightly or tailwinds in terms of raw materials. So, if you can elaborate a little bit more this part. The second part, the second question is about the German market. So just if you can elaborate a little bit more what kind of, I mean, top-line you are experiencing, you are seeing in this moment in the market could be very interesting. And finally, actually, I mean, if my calculations are correct, I think that your current exposure to heat pump is 11%, 12% of total sales, it's something reasonable? Thank you.

I will take the first part, and I will pass to Maurizio for the second part. So, on raw material costs, after the adjustments experienced in 2023, 2024 post the peaks we have seen in '22, we expect a bit of increase in copper and aluminum, while steel is more volatile. That being said, we are locked on price for the majority of the steel on the purchases for 2025. So, we should be well-positioned to some extent. Energy-wise, I mean, the situation here is more complex given our global footprint, more headwind than tailwind, if you will, because I mean, that's part of the challenges we have to face, and we have to figure out solutions to improve our productivity level to offset the energy cost that may inflate as well throughout 2025.

Thank you, Ricardo. I go on the second part, and Alessandro, you are always pointing, but I'm not sure I will answer your question. So, in Germany, last year was tough. I mean, we saw the market collapsing and we were obviously a little bit better than the market, but down in double-digit number at a high level. What I can say is that in these first weeks, the number that we are seeing is not that one. And given Germany is 20% of our revenue, if we give a guidance of 0% to 3%, you might understand which kind of development we see. In terms of the heating heat pump percentage that you calculated, we normally don't give the split of one heating solution. I said before that is around 15%, all included in terms of mid-digit renewables.

Of course, I can understand. And just to clarify your actions on costs because just to make things simple. So, you had EUR 160 million of adjusted EBIT in 2024. And basically, you are guiding EUR 190 million, EUR 200 million, I mean, in 2025, so roughly consensus 2025. So, what is this? So, we are talking about 35%, 40% additional EBIT. How much of this delta is driven by, I mean, savings program, cost-cutting program. So just if you can elaborate a little bit more, it could be very helpful because last year, you added EUR 35 million, EUR 40 million to the P&L. So just to understand how much you are incorporating your guidance for this year.

Yes. Thanks for the question. I'll try to guide you through all these dynamics. First of all, I mean, as you have seen, this Fit-2-Win program, we are very eager and we are pushing forward. We are targeting to generate EUR 50 million over 3 years' time frame, okay? So, part of this will contribute to the success or I mean, we will meet the guidance as we communicated. In addition to it, there is a direct cost efficiencies. Another portion of cost out is supposed to come from those initiatives implemented last year that we turned into permanent savings. And last but not least, we have the operating leverage that in our guidance, yes, can shift from 0, but it can also go up to 3%. And therefore, we will generate upside as long as we have operating leverage we can count on. So, we have many levers to pull, last year efficiencies, this year initiatives with the Fit-2-Win, direct cost, but also, I mean, the usual efficiency programs we operate with into our manufacturing footprint. That's something we do recurringly, and that's what we are aiming to execute this year as well.

Next question is fromDavide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.

The first one will be follow-up questions. The first one is on CapEx and the 5%, 6% guidance that you've introduced today. I just wonder whether sort of you would reckon in the industry, the need for more investments? Or is it something that you reckon is right for Ariston? So far as I understand since you've been listed that you're never been at 5%, 6%. So, I just wonder whether you might add some few words on the need for raising investment now after the transition year that we have registered last year. And the second question would be again on a topic that you already touched, but if you could add a few words more on the Fit-2-Win efficiency program that you have announced today, EUR 50 million over 3 years. I just wonder whether you might reference out or give us some reference in order how you feel or how do you think is the sort of -- it's sort of -- how should I say, its contribution for making Ariston up to the standards -- to the industry standard. So, some relative reference since you have announced one temporary last year and one again sort of now for the next 3 years. So, what will be out to Ariston once will be completed?

I mean, the line was a little bit unclear, but I think I got your question. So, first of all, on CapEx, obviously, we talk about ourselves. We don't talk about the industry. This is the right number for us. We want to be ahead and do strong investment to be ready to capture the recovery that we are expecting from the market in the next few years. So, we want to be on the leading edge in terms of investment technologies and novelty to the market to really create a gap versus our competitors. On Fit-2-Win, once again, I mean, we call this Fit-2-Win, and we want to be ready to win. I wouldn't -- I think it would be unfair for me to say the others are better or worse. I mean, we want to make sure that we are more agile, we are simpler and that we focus our investments also in terms of organization, in terms of muscles where they are needed for the future. We want to digitalize the company. We want to continue to invest on connected devices that we have around the world. I mean, these are already 0.5 million. And this will generate, obviously, efficiencies that partly as we saw are invested in the company and partly will be given to the bottom-line. So, I think it's something that we started last year and will stay for here with an amplification in the next 3 years, but we will continue to do. It's not a program that will go away. I mean, it's a way to be disciplined in the way you run a company, and this is what we want to do.

If I may ask you sort of just to follow up on the first part of the question on CapEx. The question, if I could rephrase it in a way, not that sort of I'm asking to talk about sort of competitors. It's just that we have seen, especially in renewables, sort of a lot of investments in the industry over the last few years. So, the question is whether sort of you would identify new reasoning for stepping up the investments now rather than before?

Yes. Maybe it will be good for us to spend some time together and maybe to understand a bit better the company. So, as we said before, we play in heating and water heating. Renewables are only mid-teens in terms of percentage of total revenue. I didn't say anything on we will invest more on heating, and that's not the way we do. We have a leading position in water heating, where we want to continue to be ahead. We have leading position in heating across different technologies. And these are the kind of investments that we want to do in R&D, as I said, in digital, in automation and obviously, in some footprint because we are investing and opening a new plant in Serbia, as you know, and we just acquired Egypt.

Next question is from Axel Stasse, Morgan Stanley.

I have 2, if I may. And sorry to come back to this question, but you mentioned that Germany is one of the largest contributor to your profitability. And obviously, as you know, there is some potential risk for subsidies to get robbed for heat pumps, for example. And your guidance is around at least higher than 7% for 2025. My question is, how do you get to still have a mid-term guidance above 10%? What is, I would say, the gap between the 7% and the 10% that I'm missing here? And what is mid-term for you? Is it in 2, 3, 5 years to just get a sense on where to actually get to 10% and how to think about it? That's my first question.

I mean, on Germany, I mean, first of all, we sell both fossil and heating heat pump. We know that the German market, it is obviously our first market with 20% and still in Germany, like other markets with the exception of U.K., which was the only market that grew the heating heat pump in heating last year. In Germany, also thanks to the European legislation, we will see a continued development of renewable solution. So, we play in both fossil and renewables, and we are confident that we can accompany Germany, but all the other countries in the transition that they will do by 2030 to reach the CO2 emission that every country will have to achieve. So that is what I would say on the first part. On the second part, obviously, historically, you saw us staying around or above the 10% mark in terms of profitability. You saw how difficult it was for us 2024 with a top-line decrease of almost 13%. And despite this, our performance gradually improved quarter-by-quarter, and you saw the numbers that we presented before on Q4. So, we expect as well a gradual evolution. We are saying now 7-plus for this year and year after year, we will go back to the level that we had in the past, obviously, subject to the market evolution. And in any case, you heard me saying -- us saying that we have the positive contribution of Fit-2-Win. So that's what I would say without giving you by this, we will be dead.

So, you're not basically anxious that the margins that you delivered in the past were significantly without less, I would say, competition versus now. So that's not an issue in your view to get back to the historical margins, if I understood you correctly.

Yes. I think the company is much stronger than in the past. So, we achieved that level in the past, and we are confident that in the mid-term, we will go back to that level.

And then my last question, sorry, about the cost-cutting programs. Just to make sure I understood it correctly. So, is it just fair to assume that you expect to cost -- to get sorry, EUR 15 million cost every single year for the next 3 years? Is that the way to think about it?

So it is -- maybe also, the line is a little bit strange. So, we said EUR 50 million in the next 3 years. Total.

Next question is from Mats Hugo, Sycamore.

I have 2. The first one is regarding incentive in Germany, given your account on this continuation of incentive program ongoing that will continue in '25. What is your view on the potential action of the new government? And what -- do you have any insight on that currently? And the second one is regarding tariff. Given you assume no impact in the current guidance. So, if you could please elaborate on what could be the main element on positive, on negative side for you, please?

Sorry, can you repeat the second part because I'm not sure I got it because the line again, it's a bit weird. Sorry. The first one I got on Germany and the incentive. The second one, I'm not sure I got it.

Yes, is regarding the potential tariff coming in the U.S. Could you elaborate a bit on what could be the potential impact for your business in the U.S. specifically given the tariff ongoing from Canada and Mexico, please?

Okay. Clear. I understood. So, in Germany, I mean, you know better than me that they adjust the election. I think I know what you know reading the newspaper. So, we are waiting to see if this will be gross quality or not. And in terms of incentives, so we assumed, as I said before, continuity in 2025. So, for what we know, I mean, the government will go up. They will have to -- if they don't do anything, the situation will remain like it is until probably August, September. If they will change something, they might change in August, September. And I don't know if this will be already changed for Q4 or will be changed for 2026. So, for me, the important part is that we assume continuity. What they will do in the budget is honestly only speculation. I think the association as well, they are expecting continuity and they are not expecting a big deviation in terms of the magnitude of eventually the change. So, this is what I can say and it's probably what you heard, and I'm not part of the German government and I'm not the minister, so it's difficult for me to forecast. Our assumption is continuity for 2025. In terms of tariffs, again, we said that in our guidance, we don't factor, I mean, the tariff, the impact on the economy and on the inflation because it's very difficult and it's very complex. There are scenarios which are changing daily based on what U.S. will do, what the other countries will do as counter reaction. So, if we would assume that if the tariffs and the duties stays as they are, you know that we have a production facility in Mexico. This production facility is also producing for U.S. If the situation will stay like this, I mean, us and others are considering this as an incremental cost. So, we will have to price to the market. And eventually, we will continue to work on reducing the cost. The magnitude of these tariffs are manageable, I would say. Now, what I don't know is what will happen in terms of economic impact, inflation, what will happen in Mexico, if Europe will react to China. I mean, all of this guys for me is very difficult in terms of scenarios and in terms of things. Probably we can be clearer and talk more in our next conversation where hopefully, the situation will be clear and stable.

Ms. Introvigne, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Thank you. So, I thank you all for the participation to the call. If you have further questions, the Investor Relations team is available. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.