ARN Media Limited (A1N) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the HT&E 2021 Full Year Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ciaran Davis. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call today. With me is our CFO, Andrew Nye. And this morning, we will take you through our financial highlights, our investor proposition, group financials, how we are going about executing our strategy before wrapping up with the trading update and questions at the end. It's been a very strong year for HT&E. Against the backdrop of extended lockdowns, the business achieved exceptional results, driven by a resilient radio market in which quarter 4 revenues returned to 2019 levels, group revenues rose $29 million, driving a materially higher performance of $225 million across the group. ARN's market-leading audience survey results, combined with a very clearly articulated commercial strategy, provided a strong platform to achieve this revenue growth in the period. Good cost management contributed to EBITDA of $60 million, up 21%, with EBIT up 41% to $46 million. NPAT nearly doubled to $28.8 million with EPS also increasing to $0.104 per share. Our radio operation is a strong cash-generating business. With the sale of our interest in OML and Luxury Escapes further improving our cash position as we prepare to close the acquisition of Grant Broadcasters. Cash flow from operating activities was $34 million. The group's dividend policy with a payout ratio of between 60% and 80% reflects the highly profitable and cash-generative nature of the group. A final dividend of $0.039 per share has been declared, taking full year fully franked dividend to $0.074. 2021 has been a year of significant milestones for HT&E, delivering a number of key strategic priorities, placing the business in a very strong position. The resolution of the ATO matter was one of those milestones and had been a protracted affair having been first assessed in 2018, but removes a significant potential liability on the balance sheet. In November, we were delighted to announce the acquisition of 46 radio stations from Grant Broadcasters. Strategically, these acquisitions fits very well with the growth ambitions we have for ARN. So against the backdrop of these achievements, it is worth taking a moment to outline our clear investor proposition to continue delivering shareholder returns in '22 and beyond. We have a track record as the leading radio broadcaster in the country, #1 in ratings. We have seen strong revenue recovery in '21 with good cost management, which meant we expanded core radio EBITDA margins in the year. Our focus is on increasing leveraging -- oh, sorry, I beg your pardon. Our focus is increasingly on leveraging the investment we make in talent and content across all our distribution channels providing more commercial opportunities. And we are determined to grow our share of revenue as we look forward to further easing of COVID restrictions, which we see as a positive for key radio categories like hospitality, events and tourism. CapEx in a normal year is relatively low in our business, and we will continue to deliver good cash flow from operations. Secondly, our expansion into lucrative Regional markets will deliver a national network for ARN of 58 stations across 33 markets. This acquisition is in a sector of media we know well and provides pro forma scale of $330 million in revenue and $96 million EBITDA from which to build from, and will enable further margin expansion in our core radio operations in FY '22. We are targeting an additional $6 million to $8 million of revenue synergy in '22, growing to over $20 million per annum within the next 3 years. We also see an opportunity to expand our iHeartRadio digital audio platform into these markets, growing new audiences and monetization opportunities. Digital audio is gaining momentum. And now that we have greater visibility on the audience and revenue opportunities, we are determined to capitalize on our already strong market and financial position to drive future return for shareholders. We will be investing $8 million to $9 million in FY '22 to grow our content slate, expand our audience and distribution network, hire more salespeople, further improve our digital data and targeting capabilities and ensure our technology stack delivers for our commercial partners' expectations, growing our programmatic offering. We will also be launching a new digital audio youth brand in March of this year targeting 15- to 29-year-olds, a segment of the market that we currently do not target with our KIIS and Pure Gold brands. For our shareholders, we continue to have one of the strongest balance sheets in Australian media. We expect our leverage to be less than 1x by FY '22. We have opportunities to further realize value from noncore assets such as Soprano and through the sale of 4KQ in Brisbane. We are committed to a dividend payout ratio of 60% to 80%, subject to market conditions, and we maintain flexibility to consider optionality in a consolidating market. Obviously, we're very excited about the opportunity the acquisition of Grant Broadcasters stations presents, which we will refer to as ARN Regional from now on, with the doubling of our broadcast and digital audience network to $8 million. As a result, we can offer our commercial partners the opportunity to reach 1/3 of Australians in 1 transaction. The table on the top right of this slide breaks down the revenue profile of the business, which, as you can see, is in very strong shape with $105 million in revenues, driven by exceptionally robust local revenues of $70 million in '21. After completion of the purchase on January 4, we immediately commenced our integration plan with 3 clear priorities for the year: first, to ensure the Regional broadcasting business continues to perform strongly; secondly, to grow ARN share of national revenue; and thirdly, to roll out iHeartRadio across the regions, growing our digital footprint. This is ahead of schedule with all stations already integrated onto the iHeartRadio platform. We have commenced the syndication of some of our top-performing shows, such as Kyle & Jackie O, Christian O'Connell, Jonesy & Amanda, Will & Woody, which will help provide national and local sponsorship opportunities. We will be taking our new commercial offering to market in March with full integration of TRSN, the national sales team being completed by the end of June. Lots of systems integration is already underway, as is the sale process of 4KQ, which has seen good interest so far. This process is expected to be completed by the end of Q3. So lots to do, but we are encouraged with the early progress, and good to see some new briefs coming in as a result of these 2 businesses coming together. Before handing over to Andrew, I just want to talk about the digital audio investments we will be making this year. As you will see later in the presentation, digital audio is booming, and we have great confidence in our strategy to realize the opportunity we see. Our investment of $8 million to $9 million this year is centered on 3 areas. Firstly, in podcasting. 2021 was another year of exponential growth with 60% of the population now listening to podcasts and downloads growing 28%. Clients and ad agencies now regularly use podcasting as part of their communications, and ARN saw 175% growth in client billings last year. We expect this trend to continue, and we'll be investing to increase our slate of original content and building a commercial offering capable of driving meaningful revenue growth. Secondly, live streaming of radio on digital platforms has accelerated during COVID, with 66% of the population now listening on the device of their choice, be that desktop, mobile or smart speaker. 71% of ARN's distribution platform, iHeartRadio, now stream live radio, growing 23% to 3.6 million hours streamed per month. This year, the radio industry is trialing a new audience measurement system, which will see live streaming data being extracted with potential to provide enhanced advertising targeting. We will be investing in the iHeartRadio brand, building up our first-party data and encouraging our audiences to listen live on the platform whenever and wherever they want. And finally, a relaunch of The Edge, a project we have been working on for some time. The Edge is technically a regional station in Sydney, but we have spent the last few months researching the opportunity to create a new content and commercial model for ARN, building a national audience to a target we don't currently -- to an audience we don't currently target, 15- to 29-year-olds. Launching at the end of March, we have recruited a team of experienced digital content creators with strong digital distribution footprint and skills. And from a commercial perspective, we are building a team with a really good understanding of brand partnerships targeting this demographic. We are determined to capitalize on our already strong market position, and these investments are important drivers of future returns for shareholders. The investments have been taken now against the backdrop of a returning radio market and a conservatively geared balance sheet, while continuing to deliver a strong dividend stream to shareholders. We see digital billings growing to $20 million to $25 million this year, and are confident that our digital audio strategy and the investments that we are making will be profitable in 3 years. Andrew?

Thanks, Ciaran. Good morning, everyone. We have maintained the same format for our financial results, consistent with the recent past, with usual reconciliations to assist in understanding exceptional items and lease accounting included in the appendices. References to on a like basis throughout the presentation encompass the removal of disposed businesses from the comparative, the impacts of JobKeeper payments and the comparative remain excluded from the underlying results. On this slide, we show the full year reported result. Group revenues were up 16%, with returning advertiser confidence leading to improved ad spend despite extended government-enforced lockdowns in the second half. Costs were up 15% on a like basis, one-off cost measures impacted the comparative, higher cost of sales recorded on improved revenues and strategic OpEx investments flagged at the half were executed. D&A was lower, owing to contract impairments booked for Cody in June 2020. Underlying EBITDA for the group grew 21% to $59.8 million, and the overall margin improved to 26.5% on recovering revenues. The effective tax rate on underlying Australian operations remained stable at just over 30%. The impacts of settling outstanding tax matters and the part disposal of our investment in Luxury Escapes are excluded from the results, delivering underlying EPS of $0.104 per share, up 87% for the year. Looking at the consolidated results for ARN. Radio revenues were up 13%, solidifying share gains made since the start of 2019. On a like basis, excluding disposed businesses, digital audio revenues grew 48% with podcasting the key contributor. Total costs rose 14% on a like basis with higher cost of sales on improved revenues, while people and OpEx cost growth was at the low end of the guidance provided at the half. Resulting EBITDA was up 17% on a like basis with an improved margin up 1 percentage point to 27. On this slide, we've again included the breakdown of our radio and digital audio businesses with revenues, costs and earnings of each split out. Broadcast radio fundamentals remain very strong with revenue growth delivering improved margin of 31%. Total costs increased in the period attributable to cost of sales on higher revenues and the reinstatement of FY '20 temporary cost savings. A constant focus on cost control has seen total people and operating costs in the radio business maintained at levels below 2019. Turning to digital audio, where growing advertiser awareness and propensity to advertise within podcasts saw total revenues up 48%. Digital revenues booked reflect the net contribution retained by ARN on podcast representation arrangements. Amounts billed to clients, our metric for measuring performance relative to media, peers grew 85% to $13.9 million, a CAGR in excess of 100% across the last 3 years. In '22, we will invest between $8 million to $9 million into growing new digital audiences, focused on relaunching The Edge as the national youth brand, expanding digital capability and the creation of ARN original podcasts with a business case to deliver positive earnings contribution within 3 years. Performance of Cody Outdoor improved substantially in the year with fewer lockdowns and a successful government vaccination program in the second half. Roadside and Transit revenues were up 25% and 96%, respectively, on improved occupancy and rate. Revenue share arrangements on advertising assets increased in line with revenues, while the remaining cost base was held largely unchanged. Cody was unsuccessful in its bid to retain Hong Kong Tramways contract, and we'll exit the agreement in April this year. While the contract contributed around 30% of revenues, it came with a high fixed rent structure and has been generating cash losses for the past 2 years. Our focus is now on rightsizing the business to ensure Cody remains cash flow positive in 2022. Briefly on Soprano, a local software business in which HT&E holds a 25% interest. Pro forma revenues grew 22% to over $119 million, and EBITDA increased 11% to $30 million. The business invested heavily in R&D and portfolio diversification in the year to drive customer acquisition and retention. Despite being an attractive market sector, our investment in Soprano remains noncore, and we will continue to work with Macquarie Capital to secure an exit. The group balance sheet at 31 December showed a significant net cash position of $189 million and included circa $64 million of proceeds from the disposal of investments in oOh!media and Luxury Escapes in the back half. Drawn debt of $67 million, along with existing cash reserves, were utilized to fund the acquisition of 46 radio stations from Grant Broadcasters in early January '22. In respect to the now resolved branch tax matter, the payables line reflects the remaining $20 million owing under the settlement, with a further $16 million recorded in income tax payable line for previously claimed interest deductions under the branch matter. The remaining balance sheet movements in the period are fairly straightforward. Receivables increased with improved revenues. Other noncurrent assets were lower, owing to the previously mentioned investment disposals. And the reduction in right-of-use assets and lease liabilities reflects the package of time on remaining advertising contracts in Cody. Cash flows for the period are outlined on the following slide. The business recorded strong operating cash flows after lease payments of $34.2 million, up 51% in the year, aided by improved earnings. The prior year cash flows were impacted by JobKeeper proceeds and substantial income tax receipts relating to the previously mentioned interest deductions under the branch matter. On this slide, we have provided unaudited normalized pro forma financial information for the combined group, updated to reflect trading for the 12 months to 31 December '21. ARN Regional had a solid second half of '21, recording full year revenues of $105 million and normalized EBITDA of $36.2 million. In respect of pro forma leverage position, the inclusion of $14 million proceeds from the part disposal of investment in Lux and trading performance for the 6 months to December derives pro forma net debt of around $91 million and a leverage of 1.1x. This is an improvement on the 1.4x initially flagged in November. Subject to market conditions, we anticipate leverage to be under 1x by the end of '22, factoring CapEx of $8 million to $10 million for the full group, transaction costs of $7.3 million and one-off integration costs of $2 million to $3 million. Ciaran?

Thanks, Andrew. Conscious of time, but before we move to the trading update and questions, I want to wrap up on the progress we are making executing our strategy. We continue to recruit and retain the best on and off air talent, growing audiences across our broadcast radio networks and brands. We now reach 5.4 million people weekly, a growth of 2% on 2021 and the second straight year as the leading metropolitan network. Our key talents continue to perform. Kyle & Jackie O, 24 surveys as #1; Jonesy & Amanda in Sydney are very strong #2; Gold in Melbourne is #1 with Christian O'Connell #1 breakfast show for 13 consecutive surveys; Mix in Adelaide and 97.3 in Brisbane performed exceptionally well, and we're very conscious and encouraged by the performance of 96FM in Perth. And Will & Woody, our KIIS drive show is #2 nationally. But digital audio momentum is also building. We know podcast listening is going to continue to grow, and ARN is the #1 podcast publisher. On the bottom left of this slide, you can see advertising is following this audience growth with traction in revenue gaining and nearly 60% of ad agencies using podcasting as part of their communications. We also know live streaming is growing, driven by new technologies and smart speaker adoption. And pleasingly, as the chart on the bottom right shows, growth in advertising investment in podcasting or live streaming or other forms of digital audio is not cannibalizing radio revenues, which continues to hold a well-understood and valuable role for agencies and brands. We are a content business and radio is the foundation of our growth with advertising revenues strengthening, core radio margins expanding and opportunities for further revenue and EBITDA growth, thanks to ARN Regional. We intend to use this platform to invest in the transition to a more digitally enabled audio business, delivering the most comprehensive audio experience for our listeners and the most comprehensive audio solutions for our advertising partners. Our 3-year investment road map to profitability in digital operations is built around meeting the needs of these audiences and advertisers offering scale, multi-platform content, digital data and targeting capabilities and increasing the ease of commercial transactions. So to sum up, we have had a strong operational performance in '21, delivering significant milestones. We are well positioned to drive shareholder returns in FY '22 and beyond. Our Regional acquisition will achieve revenue synergies and expand core radio margins. We have a clearly defined digital audio investment strategy with a path to profitability. And most pleasingly, we are seeing the strongest indicators in 24 months that life may be returning to some form of normality post-COVID, and we are confident that this benefit will benefit key radio categories in 2022. Moving to the trading update. At ARN, Q1 revenues are forecasted to grow 3% to 4% based on current market visibility. February market has been transitory with bookings shifting to March as advertisers deal with the lingering effects of COVID, such as staff shortages. The easing of restrictions and the opening of borders is having a positive effect on bookings and briefing activity from March and April, especially for key radio categories such as hospitality and travel and tourism. Q1 ARN Regional/Grant Broadcasters revenues and forward bookings have been less impacted with the quarter pacing to finish 5% to 6% up on the same time last year. We are targeting $6 million to $8 million of revenue synergies in '22 with ARN Regional acquisition. People and operating costs across ARN Metro and Regional radio operations are expected to grow 3% to 4%, driven by investment in people and marketing. Longer-term investments in digital audio with a path to profitability over the next 3 years, to build new audiences and incremental revenue models, we'll see increased investment of $8 million to $9 million in '22 as we relaunch The Edge and accelerate original podcast content creation. At Cody Outdoor, recent momentum for Cody has continued into Q1, with revenues and forward bookings on Roadside contracts for the quarter pacing 15% up on the same time last year. The Hong Kong trams contract ends in April and contributed circa 30% of revenues in FY '21. The contract recorded cash losses in '21. Thank you for your time, and I'll now hand over for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Darren Leung from Macquarie.

Just 3 from me, please. I might just ask them all upfront. One, there was a slide in the results 6 months ago, it's around shadow cancellation -- sorry, cancellations around -- heading to the Delta lockdowns. Obviously, we're in a bit of a shadow lockdown period with Omicron. Can you give us a feel for what the lockdowns have been and how much of that, I suppose, gets postponed in the first and second quarter of the year, please? The second one is just on a bit more color on the Grant acquisition. So obviously, had the first few months now, but can you just give a feel for where you think that $6 million to $8 million of revenue synergies comes from? Is it from your business or is it from the Grant business, in particular? And then the third one is just on the digital investment, that $8 million to $9 million looks a little bit bigger than expected. Just again, any color as to how quickly we can see the return on the other side, please?

Sure. Hi, Darren. And so firstly, on cancellations and the trend that we showed in August in terms of cancellations not -- sorry, lockdowns not impacting the level of bookings or increasing the level of cancellations. That trend continued towards the end of the year. I think to be fair, what we have seen is February has been, as we call it in the trading outlook, a bit of a transitory month. We have had not cancellations, but bookings moving to March and April. I think it's just dealing with that lingering effect of COVID, and a lot of the categories that we have in radio are trying to sort of get themselves back open again, hire staff and supply issues obviously easing a little bit. So COVID didn't -- lockdown didn't affect radio bookings. I think what we're seeing now, though, is just the small period in February, whereby bookings have moved to March and April as businesses sort of get themselves back in line and start opening up full time with borders easing and with restrictions ending, easing further. In terms of the Grant Broadcasters acquisition, obviously, we announced the acquisition a few months ago, but we only completed the sale on the fourth of January. So we've only had our hands on it, if you like, for a couple of weeks, 4 or 5 weeks. But in terms of where we see that revenue growth coming from, it's really from 3 areas. We see an ability to grow ARN share in Metro markets as a result of being able to offer some form of regional audience as well. We do believe that there is a section of advertisers in the Regional markets that will benefit from working with a metro partner. So we see growth coming within the actual core radio business of Grant itself. And the third area is in digital revenues. And that might take a little longer to come through. But as we roll out iHeartRadio from a consumer perspective, get take-up of downloads of the app and usage of the app, we see digital revenues growing as well. So 3 areas: improved share for ARN in Metro areas, improvement in revenues booked on Grant Broadcasters and digital audio. And finally, in terms of the digital investment of $8 million to $9 million, I think it's a really exciting time for digital audio and for radio businesses like ourselves. The resilience and robustness of radio is there to be seen. Revenues are returning. Audiences are still listening. Yield and rates are holding up and growing as we recover even more. And I think it's incumbent upon us to invest in future returns for shareholders. We've very clearly articulated the strategy there. We're investing in podcasting in the creation of original content, in the ability to recruit digital data capability and salespeople. We're investing in live streaming, which we think could be a very significant revenue driver in the next 2 to 3 years. And we're also investing in The Edge, which is something that we've looked at for the last number of years but have held off doing. This is the year to spend that money in term -- and invest that money because we still see growth in the core radio business. We still will generate high cash returns from that and we are very committed to the dividend policy to shareholders based on that. But we're also here to look to the medium and future longer term as well. And there's no doubt that audiences to digital audio will continue to grow. The investment by advertisers in that sector will continue to grow. And we have built already a very strong level of capability internally to be able to build a business model that we see a path to profitability in the next 3 years. I think the $8 million to $9 million is probably the highest we will be investing over that period of time per annum. But this year is the year investment while we established the really serious foundations of building a very strong digital audio business. And remember, at the end of the day, our whole vision and philosophy is about building the best consumer audio experience for our listeners and in turn then, developing and building the best commercial experience for our audio partners.

Your next question comes from Tom Beadle from UBS.

I've just got 3 questions, please. The first one, just on current trading conditions a bit related to Darren's question. ARN is obviously tracking at that 5% to 6%. Where do you think the market's at? And based on your observations, are you able to quantify potentially how much spend is yet to come back just with -- obviously, there's that delay into March and April. But just trying to work out how much spend for the -- still yet to come back post-COVID. Secondly, on the digital investments. I know you're talking to breakeven within 3 years. But can you just talk a bit more about the economics here? How much of this incremental investment is adding recurring cost to your cost base versus one-off costs? And just how might those costs scale as that digital business scales? And just thirdly, on Grant Broadcasters. I know we're talking about revenue synergies here, but what about the cost synergies. I'd expect there's some significant savings potentially from being able to syndicate your own content across Grant Broadcasters network that might replace some existing content that's being syndicated from other networks, for example. So how much could that be worth?

I'll try, Tom. I'll deal with the last question first, just in terms of Grant Broadcasting (sic) [ Grant Broadcasters ]. I think we made it clear when we did the acquisition that this was not a cost synergy acquisition. The business, as you can see, has exceptionally strong margins. It's a very well run and leanly run business, but very, very successful at that. Yes, there will be some savings in terms of back-end pieces that we will look at. As we say, we only have it for about 4 weeks, so we're working our way through that. Really important to point out that the syndication comments that you mentioned there. We are absolutely believers in that local content is king. We will not be replacing prime time shows that any of the Grant stations have in terms of breakfast. But what we are doing is replacing some of those more off-peak shows that we're running on Grant Broadcasters that other broadcasters have provided to them, but I don't see that being as a material cost saving. Where we do see the opportunity down the road is being able to offer national sponsorship opportunities. So it's not a cost-based piece, and we're working through what those cost savings could be in things like back end and finance and enabling structures that we have. Looking to the trading update, I think we're relatively in line with market in terms of what and how we're performing. It's very hard to quantify, to be honest, and I never like quantifying as much as you would like on these calls how it goes. But what we have definitely seen is that there hasn't been cancellations in February. It has moved to March. We're encouraged by the briefing activity. We're encouraged by the rate growth that we're seeing, which is at a busy time in the lead up to Easter. And obviously, with the run-up to an election as well, we don't anticipate this year -- which would happen in other election years, other advertisers falling away as -- the closer we get to the election. We think there is pent-up demand by advertisers out there to spend, and I don't see them pulling away as the election comes closer. Maybe, Andrew, you might deal with the digital investment?

Yes. Thank you, Ciaran. Look, so the $8 million to $9 million digital investment, the year one is the -- it takes the brunt of that. So there is -- in respect to The Edge, it's a -- yes, it's a known brand, but there will be a significant marketing push in the first year as we build a new consumer brand and a new market positioning. There's circa 20 to 30 staff. So a team that we've put in place there to produce a new form of radio with a different path to commercialization. We'll be able to talk more as the brand is launched in the next period of time. In respect of -- look, ARN -- the other piece of that $8 million to $9 million, ARN podcast content. '21 is about building an audience for our content. So again, the costs will follow, will be before the revenues. So for both The Edge investment and ARN original podcast content, '22 is about the establishment of the brand and establishment of audiences. So from a cost perspective, costs will be higher in the first year, and we would expect those to step down fairly significantly into 2023.

Great. Can I just clarify on that last comment on cost? So basically, you're saying there's some -- effectively some -- a lot of these costs are almost one-off in nature, is that correct? So -- that they'll -- that they will step down nominally in FY '23?

The marketing load, which is significant in year 1, will step down in 2023.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Entcho Raykovski from Credit Suisse.

I've just got a clarification question to begin with and then a few others, hopefully, fairly straightforward. So the 3% to 4% revenue growth at ARN in Q1 that you're guiding to, does that include both the digital and the regional contribution? In particular, that it's -- that's my interpretation. But if you can confirm, that would be helpful.

The 3% to 4% is ARN radio revenues across Metro and Regional.

Metro and Regional, okay. And so...

Sorry, so a clarification there, 3% to 4% across Metro and slightly higher across Regional.

Okay. So that -- okay. So clear. Okay, so 3% to 4% Metro only. And does the Metro component then include the digital side of things as well or is that captured outside?

That's captured outside.

Okay. Got it. And then if we're thinking about the revenue synergies of $6 million to $8 million, presumably, you're not really capturing much, if any, in the first quarter given that the acquisition has just completed. And similarly, there would be very little in the first half. So if we're thinking about that revenue growth rate over the course of the year, that's something which ramps up over the course of '22?

That is correct. So from a TRSN perspective, which is the Grant Broadcasters national sales team, the integration really starts at the start of next month. So a whole lot of work in the background to align systems and processes going on. So you're correct. It's really a second half hit the ground running, and that's when we would expect revenues to come through.

Okay. Great. And then I guess if I look at the commentary around, again, the first quarter and that 3% to 4% rise, it seems like Q1, so calendar year '22, market revenues are still sitting at over 10% lower than 2019. But if I look back on to the December quarter that we've just passed, we're actually pretty close to 2019 levels. So I'm maybe interested in your perspective on perhaps what's going on. Is it that transitory February that's driving a much lower Q1 calendar year '22 and you see that as abnormal or whether there are other dynamics which are playing out?

Entcho, I -- honestly, I just think it's sort of the knock-on effects of where COVID is at. As you know, radio advertising key categories such as tourism, travel, entertainment events, they haven't really ramped up yet. The guidance that we're seeing from federal and state governments is encouraging. We know that they are starting to plan for more activities. But in terms of Q1, there was a shortage of staff is one. So thankfully, borders opening should help ease that in the coming months. Shortage of supply was another one. But I don't think it's sort of 2 to 3 to 4 months in nature. I think it's something it's more 1 to 2 months. So we have seen the bookings that were there for February move into March and not canceled. So it is just a -- sort of a knock-on effect in some of our categories of what COVID is doing. And hopefully, we're seeing the end of it.

Okay. Got it. And then just a couple of final ones. The $20 million to $25 million of digital billings which you expect for FY '22, is there much or any that you expect in Regional? Or is that a -- is that the longer-term opportunity?

Yes. It's minimal, to be honest, it's a longer-term opportunity. I think this year is focused around getting the iHeartRadio app promoted on stations, get people used to listening to it and driving it in '23.

And the growth of those billings at the moment, Entcho, is fairly heavily focused on podcasting. So podcasting in Metro markets is -- it's a pretty well-known entity. In Regional markets, there is a degree of education as audiences move to -- listen to more podcasts.

Okay. Great. And just -- and finally, the expected transition of billings into revenues, are they a pretty good indicator of where revenues are going to sit? Or is there somewhat of a lag? I'm just conscious that sometimes it doesn't always translate 1 to 1.

In respect of the podcast, so...

Sorry. Correct. So sorry, the $20 million to $25 million.

Okay. So a little bit of a strange one here. The way we account for our podcast revenue is on a net basis. So there is a link here between -- and we have a slide in there that hopefully talks to that, and I can talk to you in more detail later. But the reference there -- so billings is our outward-facing market comparison. It's effectively what we bill to our customers. How we recognize the revenue is on a net basis. So that's the link between the two. So billings will absolutely translate to revenues.

There are no further questions at this time. Please continue, presenters.

Thank you, everybody, for your time. We look forward to catching up next couple of days. Thanks, everybody.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.