Arrow Exploration Corp. ($AXL)

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Arrow Exploration Q1 Results Investor Presentation. [Operator Instructions] The company may not be in a position to answer every question received during the meeting itself. However, the company can review all questions submitted today, and we'll publish those responses where it's appropriate to do so on the Investor Meet Company platform. Before we begin, we would like to submit the following poll. And if you could give that your kind attention, I'm sure the company would be most grateful. And I would now like to hand over to CEO, Marshall Abbott. Marshall, good afternoon, sir.

Good afternoon. Thank you for hosting. Looking forward to this exercise. So we'll update on Q1 '26 results. We'll talk about the overall program, where the company sits from a cash position, where we're headed on the drilling front. and even provide a snippet on acquisitions that we're looking at. So we've got a breadth and depth of talent that work on our behalf, solid group of directors, all oil business fluent and a great suite of executives who, on average, have 25 to 30 years of experience in the oil and gas game. So we're really proud of the people that are supporting this deal and moving forward. So this management team got active in 2020. We took over Arrow at that point in time. It was virtually bankrupt. Of course, it struggled through COVID and the economic threshold at the time. In 2021, we were successful in an AIM listing at 6.25p. And of course, those shareholders are happy campers at the moment. We then launched into a development program based on the discovery that we had at the RCE production platform. And RCE has been a fantastic discovery. On balance in the whole Tapir block, which I'll talk about in a minute, we've got a 100 square mile block. We've drilled 6 exploration wells and 5 of them have been successful. So the play type and the morphology of that particular discovery, along with the other discoveries has allowed us to drill another 40 wells. In 2023, we shot a 100 square mile 3D seismic program on the West Tapir block. That resulted in a significant discovery at Carrizales Norte. 2024, our first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte. And just for background, my staff has experience in drilling 600 horizontal wells, not only in Canada, but in U.S. and in Colombia. We also made another discovery at the same fault trend at the Alberta Llanos platform. We then shot an additional 3D seismic program in 2025 on the Southeast Tapir block. That has resulted in 3 exploration wells drilled, 2 of them successful. We've also implemented a significant water disposal infrastructure in all of our pads. And today, we are disposing of 85,000 barrels a day of fresh water. Water is your friend in the Llanos Basin. It's a very significant and strong aquifer that increases your recovery of original oil in place from 10% to 15% to upwards of 35% to 40%. We're hovering around 5,000 barrels of oil per day. We've got just under 12 million barrels of 2P reserves at 2025, and that's at a significantly reduced price deck than, of course, what we're experiencing today. This action going on in the Middle East is great for the company. Sadly, it's not so great for humanity, but we're taking advantage of it as best we can. Market cap just under USD 90 million as of May 21, 2028 (sic) [ 2026]. We have no debt. Our cash balance as of May 1 is USD 24 million. Our netback on a per barrel basis is $42 a barrel. Both those numbers are increasing, and we look forward to further disclosure on that. Net sales and revenue of $23.5 million in Q1. This is just a quick map on the Colombian entity and the basins that we're active in. Llanos Basin, of course, is where we're the most active. The Middle Magdalena Valley is also where we have production. And we have a shut-in platform in the Putumayo, just down outside of Cali. The bulk of our production comes from Llanos. Accessibility is fantastic there. It is prairie for the most part, very large fincas that are operated by high net worth individuals out of Bogota primarily. We've never had any shut-ins due to socialization issues. So we operate to a very high standard to a Canadian standard in Llanos, and we've become quite good at it. We value ourselves as being the cheapest drillers and cheapest operators in Colombia overall. And I think that's witnessed by the results that we've had. So here's a quick snapshot of the block that we own. It's kind of shaped like a Canadian hockey stick, of course, very appropriate. 5 discoveries. The first was at RCE, Rio Cravo Este, the second was at Carrizales Norte, then Alberta Llanos, then Mateguafa Attic. And most recently, we've had a discovery at Icaco down at the south end. We've got 3D coverage over the entire block now. So that is a huge advantage here. The play type is very simple and straightforward. These thin lines that you see proceeding to the Northeast are faults, and we look for structural compression against the fault to define an oil pool. And so far, we're 5 for 6. So it's an established play type. It's one, again, that you rely on the strength of the aquifer to really push that oil to surface. And it's good oil. The netbacks we get are superior to what I think some of our competitors have, and we're very proud of the financial position we're in. So we are the operator. We have a 50% working interest in the block, 65,000 acres. And this block really sat idle for 20 years. So we are facing tenure issues, and the block is set to expire in the first month of 2028. I can assure you that we are in constant negotiations and discussions with Ecopetrol, the national oil company who controls this block. I met with the Ecopetrol President last week. We have a very positive dialogue going forward. We're very confident that we're going to get an extension to this block. And just for background, Ecopetrol does almost 800,000 barrels a day. This is a very small piece of business for them. So in aggregate, the block is producing 10,000 barrels a day with significant upside. So from a tenure perspective, we are dealing with all the regulatory entities in Colombia. And again, we are proud of the way that we operate and we operate to a Canadian standard, and that's well recognized. To date, those 5 discoveries have resulted in 39 wells drilled, 5 well pads and 27 kilometers of roads built. Cum production to date from 2020 is about 8 million barrels. So we're in good shape. The gravity of that crude varies. Some of the thickest horizons are about 18 API, very low viscosity, however, the oil comes out fast. And some of the crude we develop in the upper reaches is about 31, 32 API. Interestingly, over the last few months, we're getting the same price for our heavy as we are for our light. And here is just a quick snapshot of the Icaco discovery. So just going back, to place you in the map, we're at the south end of the block up against this fault. Again, 3-way closure against the fault is the secret. And we have depicted a fault coming through here on the map with another fault orthogonal to that. We drilled the discovery well down here. Fantastic discovery. You can see on the seismic line, the sort of relief we see at depth. So we get closure up against the fault, and we drill very close to that fault to ensure that we're oil filled. And here's a quick snapshot of some of the sensory tools that we run, the logs that we run. So we've got hydrocarbon bearing at about 8,000 feet all the way down to 10,000 feet, 3 different zones. And right now, we're producing out of a single zone at Icaco. There are 2 other zones that we look to exploit as this discovery matures. We've just completed drilling our second well at Icaco-2, which is 2,000 meters to the Northeast. So it's more than a step-out well. It's a baby exploration well, if you will. We call it a develop cat in-house. So we're looking forward to the results of that. In fact, that well should be down through the weekend, and we'll be talking about it next week. Mateguafa Attic, which is at the northern end of the block, again, the same story here is the fault. This is a closing contour that is compressed high up against that fault. We've got excellent production coming out of Mateguafa. In fact, we drilled a horizontal well at Mateguafa, and it was the longest horizontal drill to date in Colombia. And as a company overall, last year, we were the 10th most active operator in Colombia. So we're well recognized. We're connected in the community. It's a very tight and intimate community, as I'm sure you can appreciate in Colombia. All the rumors are true, we find out. Notwithstanding that, we still have development potential ongoing at Mateguafa Attic, and we look forward to an aggressive development program through the balance of the year. As I mentioned, other discoveries, the initial discovery at Rio Cravo Este, RCE, is what we call it in-house. There's a snapshot of the platform that we're drilling. So very busy platforms, drilling operations, production operations, very large camp. We've got upwards of 120 people on the pad at any given time. Carrizales Norte, very similar, a little easier terrain, not as forested, mainly rice paddies and palm oil plantations. And then the Alberta Llanos field. So you can see the construction and infrastructure we've had to put in place with roads, pads on every one of these discoveries. We value ourselves as being very positive with local communities, and we've employed over 6,000 Colombian nationals since we've been pursuing this drilling program from 2021. So we've never had production delays due to socialization issues. We're proud of that. We take care of our guys in the field. So near-term catalysts. So the play type that we pursue here is cookie cutter, if you will. There is scope and repeatability to it. So we're looking for 3-way closure up against the fault, and that has resulted in 5 very significant material discoveries in the Llanos Basin. The Icaco exploration program is proving to be quite successful. We'll be talking about that more in detail next week. We've got additional development going on at Carrizales Norte as well as RCE, Rio Cravo Este and significant water disposal available to us at the Alberta Llanos project. We're one of the lowest cost operators. Our OpEx reduction projects are in line and underway. And as I mentioned, we're putting away about 85,000 barrels of freshwater per day. And over the last 12 months, we've been very active on the M&A front in looking at potential opportunities. What we're seeing onshore Colombia is there's significant deal flow compared to what it was about a year ago. And in fact, we've looked at probably 60 different opportunities within the last 12 months. So again, we've had 5 major discoveries to date, RCE, Alberta Llanos, Mateguafa Attic, Carrizales Norte, Icaco. We're fully financed. Our cash flow is very strong on a monthly basis. Our cash flow is certainly outstripping our CapEx. We have a strong balance sheet. We'll keep it that way. No debt, and we have access to a $20 million prepay that has been offered to us by BP. BP buys all of our crude at the wellhead. So as soon as there is delivery at the wellhead, the risk becomes BP's. So again, we're well defended against any kind of shut-ins or transportation risk. Very experienced team. We're proud of the team. We're cohesive. We've got the experience, and we're active. We've got 40 people in Bogota, 11 professionals in Calgary. And again, multiple years of experience on both jurisdictions. So that's our little company. We're looking forward to aggressive growth through the balance of the year. We're drilling multiple exploration targets. And of course, we're going to stick as aggressive as we possibly can on the exploration side and on the development side. We've got the infrastructure in place. The biggest issue that we're facing, of course, is the tenure on the Tapir block. There's certainly precedent throughout the basin that these extensions are granted. We've had very positive feedback from Ecopetrol. Ecopetrol themselves have actually initiated a program where they're putting 18 of their operated blocks up for grabs. And certainly, we're looking at that. So I think that's a good indication of where we're going on the tenure of the asset. We see that as being the suppression on the share price. And ultimately, when we get this extension, it's going to be well recognized in share price. So thank you for your time today and more than happy to take any questions.

Perfect. Marshall, if I may just jump back in there, thank you very much indeed for your presentation this afternoon. [Operator Instructions] Just like to remind you that a recording of this presentation, along with a copy of the slides and the published Q&A can be accessed via your investor dashboard. Marshall, as you can see, we have received a number of questions, and thank you to all of those on the call for taking the time to submit their questions. But Becky, at this stage, if I may hand over to you to chair the Q&A. And if I pick up from you at the end, that would be great. Thank you.

Thank you very much, Jake. And so we will start with the pre-submitted questions that we received. Firstly, we had multiple questions on the status of the Tapir block extension. I know you've spoken to it, Marshall, but just anything else you wanted to add any update on discussions and progress there as we did have a lot of questions on that.

So as mentioned, we've had an ongoing dialogue with Ecopetrol, along with our partners, Petrolco. We're 50-50 in the Tapir block, and we operate, as you know. The discussions we've had with Ecopetrol have been very positive. I think they are a little surprised at the success we've had in the basin. And it's been well recognized the relationship we have with all the decision-makers at Ecopetrol has been very positive. As I said, I met with the President last week in Bogota, and they're on a regular consistent basis. We've also had a number of discussions with the managers and the vice presidents within the organization, and that's been very positive. So we've had very excellent feedback on the submissions we've made. They are very formal submissions, 20 to 25 pages. We've got a significant work commitment that we would stick to once the block is extended to us. And -- from the perspective of additional opportunity, there is still a lot of work to be done in the Llanos Basin on the Tapir block. We see quite a bit of geological structure that's quite favorable, and that's been recognized. And as I mentioned earlier in the presentation, there is precedent for these extensions being granted. So we're looking forward to providing very positive news in the near future here.

Thank you. And we also had a number of questions on Icaco. So is -- well, summarizing a few, is Icaco on the same trend as the other producing fields. Is Icaco on the same Carbonera C7, C9 play as Mateguafa? Or is it a distinct geological target?

Very good question. So it's at the south end of the block, but there are 6 separate fault trends on the block that are oriented Southwest, Northeast. And so we intersect 6 on the size of the block. They've all pursued the same play type where we have 3-way closure up against the fault. And we have the same horizons that are hydrocarbon bearing in each one of the discoveries we've had. So we've got C7 Carbonera at the top of the stack at about 8,000-foot depth. We can then have Guadalupe or Carbonera 7 further down. And then we get down into the Gacheta and the thickest member is being the Ubaque. So in the well that we drilled and press released in the last 10 days or so, we had all 3 zones hydrocarbon bearing on logs, and we're producing one of the zones, the C7 at the top of the stack. And we're looking forward to actually completing one of the other zones at Ubaque being the thickest over the next couple of weeks. So the rig moved to Icaco-2. We have reached total depth on that well. We're actually setting casing within the next 24 hours, and we'll have additional news on the results of that well next week. But again, looking back at Icaco-1 with the hydrocarbon bearing zones that we see, we're very excited. This is a prospect that we've been excited about since seeing it on the 3D seismic. So it's got all the ingredients, and it's got the faults exactly where we want them to be. And we've got the control of the drilling rig to get these wells down on a deviated sense, Icaco-2 is at a 71-degree angle, which is tricky sometimes, but the experience that we've got on the ground in the Tapir block has proven to be very successful moving forward. And the news is so good. There's a fire truck outside.

If Icaco-2 is successful, what will the drilling plans be? Will you go straight to horizontals?

That's a very good question. I think if I'm to answer it in detail, I would get in trouble with our NOMAD. But with what we've seen so far on Icaco-2, we're very positive. I better not stretch beyond that. Discovery as we know, and we look forward to releasing results of the development program.

Thanks, Marshall. A few questions on water. Do you have enough water disposal capacity at Icaco? And the [indiscernible] note on Icaco-1 suggests that the rig will return to this discovery well to shut off water ingress from one particular perforated zone. How do you do this? And how will you control excess water ingress in the Icaco wells going forward?

Okay. Good question. So today, overall on the block, we're disposing of 85,000 barrels a day. We have capacity of 110,000 barrels a day. And when we get around to drilling a disposal well at Icaco, we'll be able to expand that another 30,000 barrels a day. So when we drill Icaco and the C7, which we tested first, it's the lightest oil and typically, we've had our most success outside of the Ubaque on the C7. There were 3 zones at the top of the stack in the C7. 2 of the 3 were hydrocarbon bearing. The third one had oil over water. Of course, we didn't perforate that. But right now, one of the other 2 zones is producing a significant amount of water. So we're going to move in a service rig with a bridge plug, and we're going to plug off the lowest zone just to see if that increases the oil cut and decreases the water cut. Very straightforward procedure. That service rig should be in place within the next 15 days, and it's a 5-day operation to pull all the pump and tubing out of the hole, go back in with the bridge plug and isolate the zone of interest and get it back on production. So it's a very straightforward procedure. We would be on that today, but you typically need 30 days of socialization before you can move heavy equipment in. And of course, we're doing that.

Moving on to plan and priorities for the company going forward. We've had a question on if the Tapir extension is granted, what is your capital allocation priority? Accelerating drilling, initiating a dividend, buyback or pursuing M&A?

Assuming that we get the extension, and of course, we're highly confident we would proceed with an aggressive development and exploration drilling program. There's still quite a bit of room on this 100 square mile block. And we're very proud of that. From the perspective of share buyback, we see that we're much more efficient at putting money into the ground as opposed to a share buyback. From the perspective of pursuing M&A, as I mentioned, we've looked at 60 opportunities in the last 12 months. We expect to see some of those crystallize. And from an M&A perspective, in my experience, it takes that amount of looking to come out with one that really works for you. So we have a certain amount of criteria in a matrix that we look at and look for in A&D activity. And we're very impressed with the opportunity suite that there is onshore in Colombia. So there's quite a bit of work to be done in that regard. And -- we've got the debt capacity. As you know, we've got no debt and very strong cash flow on a monthly basis. And as I mentioned, the cash flow is outstripping the CapEx. So we're in great shape on the balance sheet, and we look forward to crystallizing on an M&A deal over the next 12 months.

Thank you. I'll now move on to the live submitted questions. Could you please update us to process for selecting infill drill candidates and outcome progress of the infill drills?

Sure. So when we went through the first round of exploitation, and let's just talk about RCE as an example. So at the RCE, we had the discovery. We've drilled now 12 development wells at RCE that exploit 3 different horizons that are hydrocarbon bearing. And based on production rates that we enjoy now from an initial productivity perspective, a well at RCE costs us, if we drill a vertical well, costs us about $2.3 million. And with the rates that we see, we typically pick 320 barrels a day as initial production rate, and that's a net number, net toward 50%. Typically, that can pay out within the first 6 months. So we look at opportunities that are going to pay out very quickly. That's a bit of a hedge that provides us the luxury of still being active if for some unknown reason, the extension is not granted. We're still going to be in great shape with a healthy cash position. But we look at what the payout is going to be when we look at the horizontal wells, which come on at -- or pardon me, which cost us $3.8 million to $4 million per well. Our best well paid out in 37 days in an oil price environment that was using the $75 price deck. So that gives you an indication of the profitability that we enjoy drilling horizontal wells that come on at 1,000 barrels a day. So we're proud of that number and the economics behind it. The fiscal regime, I have to say, onshore Colombia is very supportive of industry being aggressive in pursuing opportunity. Our average royalty is between 8% and 12%. And from a tax perspective, we probably sit at about a 30% tax after all costs are recovered.

Another on horizontals, you just slightly touched on this. Why do you keep on drilling multiple vertical development wells following discoveries? Why not drill horizontal wells given their significantly superior productivity index and production rates?

So that's really dictated by which zone we're pursuing. When we talk about the C7 zone at the top of the stack, that reservoir averages 20 to 25 feet thick. We're certainly -- we've got the talent in-house to drill horizontals into a reservoir that's that thin. But when we look at the overall economics and the payback, the vertical wells seem to do better in a thinner reservoir. When we're looking at the Ubaque, which is at the base just above the Paleozoic, those wells are upwards of $4 million, they come on, in some cases, in excess of 2,500 barrels a day. The economics are certainly favorable. And as I mentioned, the best well paid out of 37 days at a suppressed price deck. So we like drilling horizontals, but we drill horizontals primarily into the Ubaque reservoir, and that reservoir can be upwards of 80 feet thick with an oil column equivalent to that. So that dictates whether or not we're drilling verticals versus horizontals.

And then a number of questions on M&A. Can you please provide more color on M&A? Is it asset deals or mergers you're focused on? What size of producing assets are you interested in why have you not been able to close any acquisitions? And are acquisitions still a possibility? Or has the jump in energy price outlook put this avenue of growth on the back burner?

Okay. I'll try and be as fulsome as I can on that suite of questions. We've really seen transactions pick up in the last 6 months in Colombia. And we look at a certain matrix of criteria that is important to us. So we certainly have the balance sheet to pursue acquisitions. We've also got, as I mentioned, a $20 million prepay. And we've been probing the bond market as well to look at acquisitions that are north of $100 million. We think we have the capacity to consume that on an accretive basis. Of course, we wouldn't do it if it was dilutive to the existing shareholders. So we've got the prepay. We've got significant cash flow on a monthly basis. And we're looking forward to exploring other money raising and equity issue deals as we proceed. But right now, we're comfortable in our skin. We're not going to do a deal just for the sake of doing a deal. There's lots of opportunity out there. When I look at some of the operators there, there's a very significant Canadian presence. in Colombia. We've got Parex, of course, in Frontera, Perenco, Gran Tierra. Canadian companies represent about 300,000 barrels a day. And here's an example of Parex taking out Frontera. Frontera at 30,000 barrels a day. We know that some of the stuff that they're picking up is not going to be of interest to them, but a huge interest to us. So we're fairly keen on pursuing blocks that are very proximal to the Tapir block. It's easy drilling. It's very forgiving. Frontera had a substantial position there. and potentially not as much interest that Parex would have. That's just one example. SierraCol was recently bought for just under $1 billion. We see some of their acreage is coming up for grabs. So as mentioned, the A&D activity has picked up in the last 6 months, and we're going to do our best to participate in that.

And last question should be an easy one. Can we assure investors that we'll continue to use IMC going forward?

Sorry, I missed the last part. Could you repeat that, please?

Can we assure investors that we'll use IMC again going forward? Investor Meet Company.

Well, of course. It's a fabulous platform. I'm very impressed.

Perfect. I think that brings us to the end of the Q&A.

Excellent, guys, if I may just jump back in there. Thank you very much indeed for being so generous of your time and addressing all of those questions that came in from investors. And of course, if there are any further questions that do come through, we'll make these available to you immediately after the presentation has ended. But Marshall, perhaps before really now just looking to redirect those on the call to provide you with their feedback, which I know is particularly important to yourself and the company. If I could please just ask you for a few closing comments just to wrap up with, that would be great.

Sure. So the company is healthy. We pride ourselves in that. We've got a very strong balance sheet. We've got dedicated staff of 40 people down in Colombia, 11 people up in Calgary. We've got multiple years of experience in the trade. The balance sheet is important to us. The productivity is important to us. Every decision we make with respect to drilling or recompletions or infill wells and water disposal. We meet on a regular basis. So we meet on Teams every day with our group down in Colombia. That's not 5 days a week, that's 7 days a week. So we're on top of operations on an hourly basis. And we're quite proud of the results that we've had. I think that when we look at the reaction that we've had with our peers in Bogota, all the rumors are true in Bogota and there are no secrets. And so everybody knows what everybody is doing, and we're certainly being recognized from an operator perspective that the company is healthy. We're aggressive, and we intend to keep it that way. And we look forward to growing the company. I would certainly like to get this company to at least 10,000 barrels a day within the next 24 months. And so that's going to be a tall order to be sure. But I think the potential exists for us to eclipse that.

Perfect, Marshall. That's great. Thank you once again for updating investors this afternoon. Could I please ask investors not to close this session as you'll now be automatically redirected for the opportunity to provide your feedback in order the management team can better understand your views and expectations. This will only take a few moments to complete, but I'm sure it will be greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Arrow Exploration, we would like to thank you for attending today's presentation. That now concludes today's session. So good afternoon to you all.