Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

September 4, 2025

NASDAQ US Health Care Biotechnology conference_presentation 29 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#1

All right. Welcome, everyone. Day 2 of Cantor's Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Prakhar Agrawal, biotech analyst at Cantor. For the next session, we have the team of Arrowhead, and representing Arrowhead, we have Chris Anzalone, President, Chairman and CEO of the company. Chris, I appreciate you taking out time.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#2

Thank you for having us. It's great to be here.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#3

I'm sure we have a lot to talk about in terms of some of the updates from this week, but maybe just level set expectations in terms of what you see as the key priorities for the company right now.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#4

Sure. We have a really busy 6 to 9 months ahead of us in essentially chronological order. I think what you're going to see is we will bring MAPT to the clinic. That's going to be our first CNS drug that is administered via a subcu injection. After that, I think we'll bring our first dimer into the clinic. That's PCSK9 APOC3 dimer that we think is a really potentially powerful tool against ASCVD. In November, we've got our PDUFA date for plozasiran. That's a huge event for us to transition from an R&D only to an R&D plus commercial company. We'll have some INHBE and ALK7 data in obesity. I think by the end of the year, we'll have a bit more ALK7 data in the first half of '26. That's about 6 months behind INHBE in dosing. And then I think we'll start to see some MAPT and dimer data around the middle of the year, which I think will be important. I think for the dimer, that will tell us if we have a drug, we'll see how much we can reduce LDL cholesterol, we'll see how much we can reduce triglycerides. And with MAPT, I think that could be a transformational event in that it will give us some proof of concept about our blood-brain barrier platform broadly and of course, MAPT in particular.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#5

Got it. Maybe start with plozasiran. I'm sure we'll have a lot of questions around SHTG. But FCS, I did want to get a few questions. You have the PDUFA in November. Anything that you comment on the latest regulatory interactions there?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#6

So everything is going smoothly. It's -- people have asked us whether or not things have slowed down with whatever is going on with the government. And the answer is we haven't seen any slowdown. It's been -- we've had productive and timely discussions, and our expectation is that we are on track there.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#7

Okay. And olezarsen from Ionis has actually had a pretty strong launch in FCS. I think they've guided to $75 million to $80 million for this year. What are you doing as it relates to some of the commercial preparations in FCS and the uptake curve there?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#8

Sure. We're ready. We've been building out our commercial team for now a couple of years. We are -- boy, as of last week, I think everyone is installed, all the reps are installed. We are -- they're in training as we speak. And so we are prepared to hit the ground running in November.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#9

Got it. And on SHTG, obviously, we saw the news this week from your competitor. Maybe just outline your perspectives on the data.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#10

So look, it's just top line data, just a press release. And so we have not been able to dig into -- nobody has been able to dig into the data yet. But the top line looks good, good for them, good for patients, good for the field. Ultimately, the SHTG market is an education market. And so we've always thought that it's better for patients, it's better for the field to have 2 companies banging that drum and bringing that education than one. And so that's helpful. On the AP side, they showed -- they said that they showed stats for acute pancreatitis. We'll see if that's for the broader studies or just for a small, nested population. It almost doesn't matter from my perspective because it's a really important step forward for the field. And also, I think it helps to crystallize where I think this drug should be in terms of pricing. There is this funny dogma out there that a cardiovascular drug should be priced in the $10,000 to $12,000 per year range, and that's it. And that may be true, but this is not a cardiovascular drug. Plozasiran has always been, at least in these markets, a pancreatitis drug. And so I think the better analogy there is a MASH drug. So to the extent that we are now seeing effects on pancreatitis in this population, I think will help the field and physicians and payers to view this in that way. And I think that's the right way to see it.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#11

Great. And so the MASH drug is actually $50,000 per year. So is that some of the -- I know you'll not comment on the pricing yet, but is that some of the benchmarks that you're sort of flagging now?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#12

Yes. So we are still in that process of trying to figure out what the right price is here. But -- so not to get too granular. I just -- I think that it is not -- this -- if the goal here and if you're able to substantially reduce the risk of pancreatitis. That doesn't feel like a broad market $10,000 to $12,000 a year drug that feels substantially higher than that.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#13

Got it. And so given the data you have seen with Ionis, you have a little bit of a different trial strategy, right, with 2 trials focused on -- there's a specific trial that's focused on acute pancreatitis. Now what's your confidence level on replicating the data on acute pancreatitis in SHASTA-3 and 4?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#14

Yes, we'll see. Those -- we knew the approval endpoint there simply is lowering triglycerides. And so they're powered to do that. They're way overpowered, frankly. And so my expectation is that we will see drastic lowering of triglycerides, and that will be enough to see approval. We are looking for pancreatitis events, and so we will, of course, collect those data, but those studies were not designed to show that. That's what SHASTA-5 is for, as you know. SHASTA-5 is powered to show effects in pancreatitis in a high-risk population. And so look, from my perspective, this is belt and suspenders. If we are lucky enough to show it in a combination of 3 and 4, that's great. But if not, that's okay, that's what SHASTA-5 is for. Ultimately, SHASTA-5 was designed to help payers in the United States. And I think that will be marginally helpful there, but its real benefit is in the rest of the world, is in Europe to show those hard outcomes.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#15

And do you think physicians might read across the data from -- let's say, in a scenario that it's not stat sig on acute pancreatitis because we've seen somewhat similar trend for the, let's say GLP-1 class where if one drug shows benefit on outcomes, everybody assumes that all drugs will do the same. Like is that something that you could foresee with?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#16

Yes, I think that's a really good point. I think that's probably right. The biology here is quite clear that in this population, these severely elevated levels of triglycerides can cause acute pancreatitis. And so I don't think that's controversial. And so yes, I think that's probably right.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#17

Yes. And on acute pancreatitis because we get some questions like around the unmet need there is there are like about 30,000 hospitalizations due to triglyceride-induced pancreatitis events. So maybe just talk about like why is this such a big deal?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#18

Look, it's two things. One, I think there may be more events than that. But second, this is not a binary event in that, it's not as though these patients feel great or they have pancreatitis and there's nothing in between. There's a spectrum here. These folks suffer from acute and severe abdominal pain. There can be brain fog and there can be other sequelae. And so it's even upstream of acute pancreatitis events, there is discomfort and there are symptoms that can be treated.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#19

Okay. And so how do you think about the addressable market here for...

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#20

Which market?

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#21

Addressable market for SHTG is like high -- I think Ionis has also commented on some of the initial launch focus going after 880 and above triglycerides or patients who have a history that's out 1 million population as well? Like what's your sort of launch strategy going forward?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#22

Yes, I think that's very smart. I would agree with them on that, that this is not a homogeneous market. So we know that there is this rather linear relationship between elevated triglycerides and risk of acute pancreatitis. That slope increases around 500 and then it increases substantially at around 880. And so the low-hanging fruit from my perspective are those patients, there's about 1 million of them in the United States with triglycerides above 800. A substantial potentially proportion of those folks will have had pancreatitis at some point in their lives. But even those who have not are sitting on a ticking time bomb. That's a very dangerous condition. So they are the, I think, the easiest to address and their physicians should understand the risk factors here. I think, again, to come back to an earlier point, this is an education market, and we need to help physicians and patients understand that, that is supremely unhealthy to have triglycerides above 800. So clearly, they will be a focus. But look, I think those patients with triglycerides between 500 and 800 are also at substantial risk and so should be treated.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#23

Right. And so what could be the level of investments to sort of build this market in terms of the sales for marketing efforts to launch plozasiran in SHTG?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#24

Right. So we'll see about that. We have not given guidance on that. But here's what is attractive about plozasiran to us, in no particular order. First, it is a supremely well-tolerated drug. That is helpful. Two, it is extremely active. Our data in our Phase III study in FCS showed triglyceride lowering of around 80%. That's a uniquely helpful thing, right? Third, from just a business standpoint, we are an R&D company. And any company that makes the transition to commercial is going to have some growing pains as it builds out a commercial team and figures out how to add that component to its culture. We get to do that in a stepwise fashion. FCS is a relatively small market. We can address that with a couple of dozen commercial folks, I think. And so it allows us to figure out organizationally how to be a commercial company in a fairly small stage. And then it prepares us to expand into SHTG, which will be, of course, quite a bit larger.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#25

Right. And so on the differentiation versus Ionis' drug, now that we have seen the efficacy and some high-level safety data, what's your view on how will you differentiate in the market?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#26

Yes. So look, I can't speak to the -- to potentially to how we would differentiate in an SHTG market because I haven't seen their data yet, and we don't even have SHTG data yet other than Phase II data. So moving that aside, if we talk about FCS only, I think the differentiation is fairly clear. Now it's difficult, of course, to compare 2 different drugs across 2 different studies, but you can just look at the numbers. In their study, they showed about 40% reduction of triglycerides from baseline. We showed about an 80% reduction in triglycerides from baseline. I will stand by our safety profile. I think that it is potentially superior. And then we dose once a quarter and they dose once a month. And so this feels like a compelling -- we can make a compelling argument as to why this may be more appropriate for some patients. And also, look, what we hear from physicians is how many patients can we get to goal, right now. Now it depends on what your goal is, goal could be 880, goal could be 500. And if you look at our FCS data, I think we had around 75% get below 880. That's substantial. And I think around 50% get below 500. And remember, these patients have triglycerides in the thousands. And so that's doing something. And I think that olezarsen didn't have anybody get below 500. And I think in the teens or so, 15%, 16%, maybe got below 880. I could be wrong about that, but something around that range.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#27

And so maybe on the FCS, given that you have a little bit better data and maybe possibly better safety and convenience, like do you expect some switching from Ionis' drugs?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#28

Yes, we'll see. Look, I -- we have a strategy for that. We have a strategy for pushing the switch, but also for de novo users. What we -- what I think that physicians should do is just monitor their patients. If they are on olezarsen and they're meeting goal, they may be happy with that drug. But let's see if they're meeting goal. And if they're not, then you might want to consider switching.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#29

Okay. And maybe on Europe for plozasiran and SHTG specifically, like what's the strategy there in terms of launching yourself or is looking for a partner?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#30

Yes. So we are gearing up to do that ourselves with the understanding that we would certainly be open to some kind of ex U.S. deal. And so I can't rely on that because I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know if it's -- if there is an attractive deal to be done there. So we have to prepare ourselves, but we'll see where that goes.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#31

Okay. And your strategy in the broader mixed dyslipidemia market, I think, obviously, a much larger market, but requires a cardio outcomes trial as well. So what's the latest thinking there?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#32

Sure. So we had -- as you know, there is a time when we were thinking about plozasiran for that market as well. Right now, it's a 2-step drug for us. Step 1 is FCS, step 2 is SHTG. There was a time when we were thinking about a third step and then stepping into this mixed hyperlipidemia market. That does not make too much sense to us at this point. I think we keep plozasiran as a pure-play pancreatitis drug full stop. We are developing the dimer for addressing the mixed hyperlipidemia market. We're really excited about that. We think there could be 20 million or so people in the United States that would fall into that category who have never been prospectively studied. And the concept is stunning, right, that if we can knock down both PCSK9 and APOC3, as we've shown in NHP studies, we'll see if it translates into humans. We've had good luck with translation in the past, but let's see how that goes. But if we can reduce LDL-C and triglycerides in these same patients who have elevated triglycerides and elevated LDL, we think it's a very powerful tool for these patients.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#33

And does anyone else have a dimer? I mean it seems a very interesting concept.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#34

It's an interesting concept. We -- I believe that we will be the first ones with a dimer in the clinic, and I expect that to be this year. It's not -- this has taken us some innovation, right? It's not as simple as clipping 2 RNAi molecules together. There is different chemistry. There's a lot that has gone into this. So we're really looking forward to seeing how this looks. As I mentioned, we will have LDL and triglyceride data in 2026. And I think that's going to tell us, is the stoichiometry working for us? Are we getting enough knockdown of both PCSK9 and APOC3 to have something. But I think we'll know that next year. And then I think we can move relatively quickly into a cardiovascular outcomes trial.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#35

Right. But I mean, your translation from NHP to humans has historically been very good.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#36

It's been very good, yes.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#37

So you saw the same signal for the dimer as well?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#38

We did, yes. Yes.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#39

Okay. Got it. Maybe moving on to the obesity portfolio. You have 2 assets in the clinic. So maybe just walk us through why 2 targets, the rationale there?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#40

Sure. So these 2 targets, INHBE and ALK7 are opposite ends of the same pathway, right? This Activin pathway. ALK7 targets adipose tissue. This is our first time in the clinic. I think the first time anybody in the clinic, frankly, to bring RNAi drug directed at adipose. And we've seen good data in animal studies with ALK7. In fact, we've seen good weight loss. We've seen good high-quality weight loss. And so we're excited about that. And it's a very durable drug. That could be dosed potentially once every 6 months or less frequently. So we're excited about that. INHBE is, again, the proximal side of that pathway. And we are interested in that, and the data also -- the animal data were quite good there as well. And that's the hepatocyte-directed construct. We know we're good at knocking down hepatocyte gene targets. So for us, it was belt and suspenders. ALK7 in animals was more potent. I don't know if that's going to translate to humans, but in animals, it was. And so it made sense to bring both into Phase I. And let's do a bake-off. Presumably, one will come out, one will look better, and we will take one of those into Phase II and beyond. But I suppose it's possible that they both look good for different reasons, and we may develop both. My expectation is that we will collect these data this year. And then in '26, we'll be doing Phase II studies in just one of those.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#41

Okay. Got it. And so maybe like where will these targets fit in relative to the semaglutide, tirzepatide and could be a monotherapy option as well? Or do you see it as more like a combination play?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#42

Yes. It's -- look, there's a lot of white space in this field. Obesity is obviously a very large market, and it's a bit diverse. And so let's see what these data look like. In the animal studies, what we saw was good weight loss as a monotherapy, but more importantly, high-quality weight loss. We saw a sparing of muscle. We saw a loss of visceral fat, and this wasn't due to chloric restriction. These animals were eating the same amount of food as control animals, but were still losing weight. They're metabolizing fat. That's a very attractive profile. So it is possible this could be used as a monotherapy. But I'm frankly a bit more excited about potentially using it in combination with one of the GLP-1s either, for instance, using it in combination with the subtherapeutic dose of tirzepatide to maybe lower the -- or eliminate the sarcopenia issues and the GI issues, but still see good weight loss. And also, I like the idea of using this for maintenance therapy. We know that, that's a real opportunity. And so it could be that the patients lose a lot of weight with existing therapies, go off those and then go on either INHBE or ALK7 as a maintenance therapy. So we'll see where that goes. Our Phase I studies will tell us a lot. And I think we'll -- this time next year, we'll know a lot better about how these could fit in.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#43

Right. And so the update that you'll have on the clinical trial, INHBE will come later this year?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#44

Yes. Yes. We'll have an incomplete data set for INHBE by the end of this year. We will have an even more incomplete data set with ALK7 by the end of the year. But my hope is that we have data that is interpretable and so we can have some idea how these are working and if they're working. And then probably in the first half of '26, we'll have a bit more ALK7 data because, as I said, that's about 6 months behind INHBE.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#45

Okay. And so one of your competitors, WAVE also has an readout, INHBE readout. Anything that you would hope to see there as it relates to your approach?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#46

No. We're really focused on how our data look. We'll pay attention to other modalities and drugs as well. But we're -- it's hard for me to imagine being overly influenced by whatever data they have.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#47

Okay. And longer-term for these obesity assets because these are like large markets, more big pharma play. So -- and you've done -- historically done partnerships across multiple assets for your pipeline as well. So what's the longer-term strategy here in obesity? Is partnership something that you could explore early on? Or you want to explore this in like a Phase II trial and maybe take it a little bit further along?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#48

Yes. So let's be clear. Our model has always been a combination of partnering and wholly owned assets. In order to create real value, long-term value, we need to have wholly owned assets that we are commercializing ourselves, plozasiran will be the first one. And that will continue to be the case. But we also have this extraordinarily productive discovery engine that is capable of spinning out more drugs than we could ever commercialize. I continue to be confident that going forward, we will bring 3 to 4 new drug candidates in the clinic every single year. And so they're always be partnering here. Now with obesity, let's just see how that plays out. It's easy to say that a company our size is not really able to do these large and expensive obesity studies. But right now, these are fairly cheap studies. And so let's see what kind of company we look like 2 years from now when those studies could be expensive and broad. We could be a different looking company with different access to capital and plozasiran will be launched by then with different revenue than we have now. And so let's see what that looks like. We are in no hurry to partner these. In fact, they have been -- to date, at least, these have been off limits for partnering just because we think there's too much near to midterm value to part with them at this point. Let's see what the data look like and then we can make decisions going forward.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#49

Right. And on BD, you announced a pretty good deal with Novartis on SNCA, $200 million upfront for a preclinical asset. Strong -- really strong upfront. So like what was attractive about that asset specifically?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#50

Yes. It was a great deal. We look forward to working with Novartis. They are the right company to partner alpha-synuclein. We are convinced of that. They're excited about it, and we are excited to work with them. Look, we may have something that is breathtaking in CNS. We have this platform that enables us to administer via subcu injection that gets into the brain and importantly, to deep brain regions. Let's see if that translates from animals to humans. Should it do that, then this is a disruptive technology, absolutely. And so I don't want to speak for Novartis, but I think what they saw was that potential. There's an awful lot -- as they say in Billiards, there's an awful lot of green between the ball and the pocket here. And so let's see if this translates. We haven't been in humans with this platform at all yet. But should it translate, it's potentially very powerful tool, I think.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#51

And so maybe just talk about your broader CNS portfolio as well. MAPT is moving into the clinic. Where will that be tested? And is it like something similar in terms of the technology that you have at SNCA?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#52

Yes, I appreciate that. Yes, it's the same delivery technology. It's the same delivery platform we call the BBB platform, the blood-brain barrier platform. So MAPT will be the first against the targeted tau for Alzheimer's as well as other tauopathies. I would expect that -- I would expect us to file CTA for that over the next month or so. And so that will be the first one in the clinic, and that will be the first one where we will have some knockdown data, I think, in 2026. The next one will be ARO-HTT, that's against Huntington's. That will be by the end of this year, we'll file a CTA. That's partnered with Sarepta. And then the alpha-synuclein drug candidate should be -- we should be filing a CTA in the first quarter of 2026 for -- with Novartis. And then we have a whole host of potential drug candidates underneath that. And so I would stay tuned. I would expect additional neuro assets in the clinic in 2026.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#53

Okay. And on the cadence of partnership, obviously, we saw this deal this week. But going forward, what could be the trend there?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#54

Yes. Look, this is a big part of our model, as I mentioned. And so we will continue to partner. Should you expect to see any new partnerships in the very near term, probably not, particularly discovery-based partnerships. We need to make sure we probably want to take a bit of a breath on discovery partnerships just to make sure that we can serve Novartis, we can serve Sarepta and we can serve ourselves. But maybe in 2026, we could think about additional discovery partnerships. Now there's other deals we can do in the meantime, just not discovery. We -- as I mentioned, we could consider some type of ex U.S. partnership for plozasiran. We could consider some type of ex U.S. partnership with other assets. And so that's certainly on the table.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#55

Right. And I mean you have a lot of clinical stage assets that we haven't talked about. Obviously, pulmonary used to be very important as well. I think you're looking for a partnership there as well, PNPLA3 in NASH and some other host of other assets. So like any specific categories where you feel that there is more opportunity to partner out?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#56

So I would view it the other way. So we are -- we like the idea of building out our development infrastructure and commercial infrastructure in the cardiometabolic space broadly. And so that would include obesity, that would include cardiovascular, that would include plozasiran, zodasiran, the dimer, et cetera. I like the idea of continuing to hold on to assets in that area. And then there will be these noncore assets. We'll see where pulmonary goes. I still like the idea of building out pulmonary expertise at some point. And so we'll see where that goes with the current assets and the additional ones.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#57

Right. And maybe anything else on the early-stage pipeline that we haven't talked about that you guys are super excited internally?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#58

I think we did it. We're really excited to see what MAPT looks like. That, like obesity has been off limits from partnering. We just want to see how that -- we want to turn that card over. We want to see how that -- how the platform works. We want to see how that asset works. It's a well-validated target. There should be some data from competitors out next year on that target that's administered via an intrathecal injection. What's important about this, the BBB platform is certainly helpful from a convenience standpoint rather than having a lumbar puncture that could be a subcu injection. But more importantly, what we have seen is that we can get into deep brain regions and things like alpha-synuclein and Huntington's and MAPT for Alzheimer's, it really requires that deep brain region access. And so we'll see what some of these data look like later in 2026 with respect to the intrathecal injection for MAPT. But I think that could be a good harbinger for that asset class.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#59

And lastly, with the cash in hand, where does it take you in terms of the runway?

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#60

Sure. So we said publicly that we've got -- before the Novartis deal that we've got enough cash to get us into 2028. And that's assuming current cash as well as expected inflows from existing deals, existing milestone payments. So we feel good about where we are there. My expectation is that -- my strong expectation is that there will be more business development between now and 2028 to continue to move this forward.

Prakhar Agrawal

analyst
#61

Okay. Great. That's all the time we have today. Thank you, Chris, for joining us, and thank you to the audience for listening in.

Dr. Christopher Anzalone

executive
#62

It's a pleasure. Thank you.

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