Ashtead Technology Holdings Plc (Y9R.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning to everyone in the room and to those who are joining online. Welcome to the Ashtead Technology 2025 Half Year Results webcast. I'm Allan Pirie, the CEO. And I'm joined this morning by Ingrid Stewart, our CFO. I'll start with some highlights and a reminder of our differentiated business model. Ingrid will then talk us through the financial review, after which we'll follow -- I'll follow with a market and operational review. After closing remarks, we'll open the floor to Q&A. The group has continued to deliver robust profitability and year-on-year growth despite some market and geopolitical headwinds during the period, which tempered activity and led to a slower seasonal ramp up during Q2. We have continued to strengthen the business, executed on our long-term strategy and focus on driving enhanced quality of earnings. Compared to the prior period, revenue increased by 23% to GBP 99.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 20% to GBP 27 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin at 27% is ahead of internal expectations. Adjusted EPS growth at 15% delivered an adjusted EPS for the period of 21.9p. We have confidence in our sophisticated and diversified business model and our ability to execute. We have a unique portfolio of equipment and services and are well positioned to support both oil and gas and offshore renewables markets globally through our geographic footprint and highly fungible and mobile technology and services offering. Seatronics and J2, acquired in November 2024, have been fully integrated and delivered -- and are delivering higher operational synergies than initially expected. We have continued to strengthen the business, investing in talent, technology and geographic diversification ahead of growth. We have strengthened our team, including appointing a Head of Mechanical Solutions, a QHSE Director and a CIO. We invested GBP 19.4 million CapEx in the equipment fleet and expanded our technology development programs in our Mechanical Solutions and Asset Integrity service lines. We have continued to gain traction in Norway, capitalizing on the buoyant market, and we have expanded our Mechanical Solutions capabilities in the U.S. and localizing the group's lifting pooling and deployment capability in the region. Most importantly, we are adding value to our customers daily through a flexible and integrated service approach. I'll talk you through an example of that later. Our outlook confidence is underpinned by a supportive market backdrop. Key projects, delayed by our customers and suspended during Q2, have been mobilized, providing confidence in growth in H2. Our total addressable market is forecast to grow by 8% CAGR through 2028, and our outlook confidence is underpinned by customer backlogs. We remain confident and committed to our strategy, which we believe will drive long-term sustainable growth. Board expectations for the full year remain in line with those set out in the trading update. Sorry, it would help if I actually click the slides. Turning to our differentiated business model. We are building on rival capability, and the benefits of our strategy are increasing. The platform we have creates a great opportunity to drive financial performance and further scale the business. We operate across the life cycle of offshore energy infrastructure from project development to decommissioning. In H1 '25, 26% of our revenue came from offshore wind, where the current focus is on site characterization, installation and construction support. Our oil and gas focus remains on late-life inspection, maintenance, repair and decommissioning activity. In H1 2025, 60% of our revenue came from Survey & Robotics, 35% from Mechanical Solutions and 5% from Asset Integrity. We operate as one Ashtead Technology in a highly flexible differentiated way to provide a critical service to our customers. We have a unique consolidated offering. The scale of our equipment fleet is unrivaled. We have deep domain knowledge and experience to really add value to our customers. We have increased global reach, including the strengthening local position in Norway and the U.S. through actions taken already this year, and we continue to innovate and bring new technologies to market that have been designed, engineered and assembled in-house. Ashtead Technology & Services business, we are increasing our TAM, adding unique value to our customers through integrated project support, and we are well placed for growth. I'll now hand over to Ingrid, who will talk us through the financial review.

Thank you, Allan. Good morning, everybody. This slide is a snapshot of our growth journey over the past 4 years. Our half year revenues of GBP 99.1 million represent a growth of 23.2% on prior year, with the revenues having more than tripled over the last 3 years through both organic and inorganic investment. Our adjusted EBITDA of GBP 27 million represents a margin of 27.3%, ahead of our initial expectations for the period. Our ROIC of 24.2% is reduced on prior year due to the increased investment as a result of both the Seatronics and J2 Subsea transactions and CapEx during the course of last year. Our pro forma leverage of 1.6x at the half year has increased on prior year due to RCF funding being utilized to fund these acquisitions. Moving on to the next slide. This provides more detail on our profit and loss account. Our revenue growth of 23.2% was lower than our initial expectations as a result of various market and geopolitical headwinds, which we've witnessed through the first half of this year. Breaking down our growth, we can split this as 22.7% inorganic growth from the acquisitions of Seatronics and J2 Subsea at the back end of last year. This growth has been adjusted to reflect a planned decrease in lower margin sales from those acquisitions. We had a minus 0.8% headwind from FX, which leaves us with a 1.3% organic growth in the period. Our trading update in July highlighted the lower-than-expected revenue performance. Around 60% of the revenue shortfall in our original expectations came from our U.S. operations, which were hit with the sudden cancellation of offshore wind projects on the East Coast following the U.S. administration's decision to withdraw support for offshore wind and the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have caused operators to pause on decision-making and delayed starts to projects. As an example, we had a couple of larger projects in Brazil, which were delayed from Q1, but have since started and will now run into 2026. In terms of our split by market, we saw the biggest increase from our Oil and Gas business, predominantly due to the acquisition of Seatronics and J2. Our renewables revenue has grown 10% year-on-year, with growth impacted by the reduction in activity within the U.S., which represented around 3% of our business last year. Despite revenue performance being lower than expected, we've delivered a solid profit performance in the period, a result of both revenue mix and management of cost. This profit performance has been supported through higher and quicker synergies from the Seatronics and J2 Subsea acquisitions. Our year-on-year EPS growth is 15%. Turning to the balance sheet. Slide 8 shows our balance sheet compared to HY '24 and FY '24. We've continued to invest in our technology fleet through the first half with CapEx of GBP 19.4 million in the period. This brings our gross book value to GBP 185 million. We've estimated our replacement cost at around GBP 350 million, which reflects the 2 gross cost of acquired assets from our acquisitions, the potential third-party cost of our in-house built fleet and inflationary increases. Our ROIC at 24.2% remains well ahead of our cost of capital and our high-teens medium-term target, with the decrease on prior year, the result of the investment in both organic and inorganic growth. Our net debt at the end of June was GBP 132 million, an increase of GBP 4 million on our full year due to predominantly to our investment in CapEx and working capital in the period. In total, GBP 20 million was spent on CapEx, of which, as I said earlier, GBP 19.4 million was in our fleet versus our full year forecast of GBP 35 million. On working capital, it's typical that this increases at the midpoint in the year, albeit with a slower seasonal ramp that we saw through Q2, the impact is lower than expected. We've also invested in stock to support the new manipulator repair and cable molding services that we had acquired through the Seatronics and J2 Subsea acquisitions. As said -- as noted earlier, our pro forma leverage is 1.6x, and we are targeting to reduce this to 1.4x by year-end. And finally, for me, on capital allocation priorities, these remain the same as previously indicated. We continue to see both organic and inorganic opportunities for growth, and we remain focused on these whilst being mindful of leverage. Our small, progressive annual dividend policy remains unchanged. It will come as no surprise to hear that share buybacks have been discussed in depth at Board level. But at the current time, our priorities remain in investing in the opportunities for growth that we see ahead of us, whilst reducing leverage through cash flow. I'll pass you back to Allan, who will cover the market and operating update.

Great. Thank you, Ingrid. So turning to the market, the market continues to provide a strong growth way for our business. Over the next 3 years, Ashtead Technology's total addressable market is expected to grow by 23% to GBP 3.4 billion by 2028 at an 8% CAGR. Despite recent headwinds, the offshore wind market is forecast to grow at 15% CAGR through '28. The number of operational wind farms is forecast to increase from 204 to 365 by 2030, being a 79% increase. Ashtead Technology is very well placed to benefit from the offshore wind market because of the transferability of our skills and the expertise from oil and gas. We're supporting the same customers with the same types of equipment from our existing locations. Oil and gas is very much part of the future energy transition mix with anticipated stronger demand for decades to come. Oil and gas inspection, maintenance, repair and construction support growth is forecast at 4% CAGR through to 2028. Turning to the right-hand slide. This shows the key regional addressable markets for Ashtead Technology, which are global, excluding China. We support our customers' operations across all key offshore geographic regions, and we are well placed to benefit from the forecast growth. Not only is the vast majority of our equipment highly fungible and mobile, our customers' vessels are also highly mobile, allowing us to support areas such as West Africa and Latin America with no physical presence in those regions. Ashtead Technology is very well placed to benefit from the growth across both markets and geographically. Turning to the next slide. Oil and gas activity accounted for 74% of our revenue in the first half. A slower energy transition is setting the stage for stronger oil and gas demand for decades to come. Wood Mackenzie estimates a slower transition could leave the world needing about 5% more oil per year than previously forecast from the mid-2030s. An extra 100 billion barrels of oil from exploration will be required to fill the gap by 2050. Whilst the oil and gas greenfield FIDs have declined during 2025 due to delays amid political uncertainty, the annual average is forecast to increase from GBP 96 billion to GBP 106 billion through 2028. When Ashtead Technology listed in 2021, the oil price was in the mid-$60s. By June 2022, the oil price hit the high-$80s, and for most of Ashtead Technology's listed history, the oil price has been in the $70s. With oil currently trading in the $60s, again, it's worth pointing out that is a perfectly good oil price for this business to be successful. Subsea spend is forecast to increase to GBP 40 billion per annum in 2028 from GBP 34 billion last year. 48% of forecast spend in 2028 is driven by projects that have reached FID, and 79% of forecast spend in 2028 is from sanctioned projects and activity with a breakeven oil price below $40 a barrel. Oil and gas greenfield spend is forecast to increase, which coupled with IMR and decommissioning activity provides a very supportive market outlook for Ashtead Technology. Turning to offshore wind. Significant growth is forecast from offshore wind capacity through the rest of the decade. Ashtead Technology's key offshore wind markets are in Europe and in Asia. By 2030, Europe is forecast to account for 64% of global spend, followed by Asia at 30% and North America at 5%. The U.S. administration has halted new federal site auctions, and FID activity in the U.S. stalled amid rise in political uncertainty. To put this into context, 3% of our group revenue was derived from U.S. offshore wind activity in 2024. Looking at the left-hand side and auction activity, site auction activity hit a record high in 2024 at 43 gigawatts despite cancellations and field allocations. '25 auction activity is off to a slow start with just 5 gigawatts opened so far, but with 36 gigawatts planned for the rest of the year. Despite recent challenges, several previously canceled and unallocated auctions from 2024 are set to be reopened in 2025. Turning to FID activity. The first half of '25 has seen strong FID activity with over 6 gigawatts reaching FID, of which 5.7 gigawatts has been in Europe. Poland has been driving the uptick in European activity with circa 3 gigawatts of capacity reaching FID. Despite industry challenges and strategic caution from operators and developers, there is continued selective investment in financially signed projects by scaling back higher risk commitments. Whilst the recalibration of the offshore wind market is ongoing, the market remains high growth, and Ashtead Technology is well placed to benefit from it. Turning to customer backlog. Increasing subsea activity is resulting in customers building record multiyear backlog. The graphic shows the backlogs of 3 major subsea contractors, Technip, Saipem and Subsea7, who are all key customers of Ashtead Technology, who have more than doubled their backlog in the last 4 years. And looking at H1 '25, these 3 companies have materially increased backlog for '26 and '27. The increase in '26 backlog through the first half of this year has been 23% and the uplift in '27 backlog has been 33%. Multiyear customer backlog provides stronger visibility, and the higher activity underpins our confidence in our market and our ability to successfully execute on our strategy. Turning to M&A. We completed the acquisitions of Seatronics and J2 in November '25, and they have been rapidly integrated into the group. As a reminder, we paid GBP 63 million consideration at a 5.2x EBITDA multiple. The deal rationale was to consolidate the Survey & Robotics market by acquiring our largest competitor. And by doing such, we strengthened our footprint in Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Aberdeen and in Houston. We increased the size of our equipment fleet by 30%. We added highly skilled technical expertise to the team, and we deepened customer relationships. Integration is now complete, realizing higher operational synergies faster than anticipated. Having combined the trade through Ashtead Technology, consolidated rooflines and rationalized the team, we have realized annual operating synergies of about GBP 3 million, which are higher than initial expectations. We have quality checked the whole equipment fleet, which is in better condition than we expected, which will save us GBP 3 million in repair costs, and it's also allowed us to reduce CapEx by GBP 5 million. A small noncore ROV manufacturing business has been sold, and we have cut back on lower quality revenue activity that was prevalent in Seatronics, increasing margins in the process. Regional capabilities have been deepened, providing a catalyst to do more for our customers. Cable molding and ROV manipulator servicing and repairs are being expanded and internationalized. This is a classic Ashtead Technology executed deal. We bought it at an attractive multiple. We have fully integrated it into Ashtead Technology at pace and are expanding the new capabilities internationally. To give you an idea of how we are supporting our customers through integrated support, the capacity we now have -- or sorry, the capability we now have at Ashtead Technology is significantly stronger and deeper than it was previously. We have deliberately expanded our range of products and services to better support our customers. Through increasing integrated supply of equipment and services, we are delivering technical, commercial and admin benefits to our customers whilst widening the competitive moat. As an example, we've got a project mobilizing next month for 210 days with vessels sailing from the U.K. to West Africa to modify and refurbish existing gas facilities. To support our customer, we are providing a suite of equipment across all 3 service lines. We're providing survey equipment for survey positioning and acquisition of data for as-built records. We're providing tooling for dredging activities. Asset integrity, communication and camera systems are being provided for vessel monitoring and subsea equipment positioning. And we're also providing winch systems from the deal that we did with ACE Winches a couple of years ago to pool in subsea cables. This is a package of equipment that pools on 4 acquisitions that we have done in recent years through Forum, WeSubsea, ACE and Seatronics. There is no single competitor who could provide this range of equipment and services as one consolidated package. An integrated approach that is agile, collaborative and focused on excellence is delivering project efficiencies for our customers that is unrivaled. And finally, if we turn to outlook, the Board's full year expectations remain in line with those set out in the trading update of 17th July. We've got a clear growth strategy, and we're executing the plan. Our equipment and services offering is highly differentiated, adding value to our customers. The markets we operate in have strong growth fundamentals. Customers are benefiting from record multiyear backlogs, creating a strong growth runway for us. Our highly flexible business model is creating multiple geographic and market growth opportunities, and we are confident that we will make further progress during the rest of this year to further build and grow our business. And finally, following previous announcements and after extensive shareholder consultation, it is the Board's intention to move the company's listing to the Main Market, expected on 6th October this year. The Board believes that the greater liquidity and broader access to international investors, offered by the Main Market, will provide an excellent platform for the next phase of Ashtead Technology's growth strategy implementation. We'll now open to Q&A.

Victoria McCulloch, RBC. Can we start on organic growth? What are you seeing from your customers that indicates the second half of this year or 2026 even and/or a more kind of medium view might be different to what you've seen in the first half of the year? Particularly, you talked about the addressable market. I mean, on the chart, it's grown 10% '24 to '25, but you've captured just 1% growth. What gives you kind of confidence that you can capture what the -- this year with the addressable market growth that you should? And then on CapEx, can you remind us how much of that is J2, Seatronics this year? And broadly, how should we think about CapEx going forward as a percentage of revenue?

Sure. So take the first part of the question first. The good news is we're at the end of August. So we've only got a few months left to run into the end of the year. We are seeing good trading activity in terms of vessels mobilizing. We did have a number of projects that were delayed or suspended by our customers in the first half of the year. We were always confident that those projects would mobilize, they have mobilized. And some of them have mobilized for a significant period of time. We're talking about large suites of equipment going to places like West Africa or Brazil for 300, 400, 500 days. So that equipment is now out. We obviously had some disruption in the Middle East due to the -- it's really around war that suspended operations in that region for 2 to 3 weeks. That is now back up and running. We haven't lost any projects as a consequence of that. But to answer your question, the confidence comes from the run rate within the business, the daily run rate that we've got. What we know is going to be mobilizing over the next 6, 8 weeks, and the pipeline of quote activity that's building, not only through the rest of this year, but into next year as well. Do you want to pick up CapEx?

CapEx piece, yes. So if you remember back, I guess, 12 months ago, our guidance for CapEx for this year was GBP 30 million. When we did the Seatronics and J2 Subsea acquisitions, we increased that to GBP 40 million. We pulled that down to GBP 35 million, and that recognizes that the fleet that we acquired, as Allan said, was in better condition than we expected. And in terms of percent of revenue on CapEx, we estimate that around 14% over the next couple of years.

If I can be really cheeky and ask a follow-up. What are your views on the Saipem and 7 merger that's now confirmed being 2 significant customers of your own?

We think it's a positive thing for Ashtead Technology, both Subsea7 and Saipem are our key customers of ours. And it's going to be a significant player in the marketplace. It will require a strong supply chain. And we believe that we're very well placed to support them. And, yes, I think it goes back to how we add value to customers. And we deliberately put in integrated support slide into the pack to show how we are differentiated from our competitors. So, yes, we'll wait and see if that deal completes next year. Andrew, I think you had your hand up.

Andrew Nussey from Peel Hunt. I guess, sort of following on from that question a little bit. Have you seen any change in customer behavior through that Q2 hiatus, an equally sort of competitor behavior as they've obviously experienced lower levels of activity, too? And the second question around sort of the M&A pipeline opportunity. Moved to the Main Market 6th of October, you've targeted deleveraging to sort of 1.4x at the end of this year. Would you be hopeful of maybe getting some bolt-on M&A done before the year-end?

That's a leading question. So I'll start with your first part. In terms of customer behavior, I don't think we've seen anything abnormal. There has definitely been more sort of vessel scheduling changes in the first half of the year, but I think most of that has now settled down. So nothing that we haven't seen before is -- or is abnormal in our marketplace. In terms of competitor behaviors, clearly, by us consolidating the market in the Survey & Robotics space by acquiring Seatronics last year, we definitely have some competitors trying to redefine their place in the market. But given how rapidly we've managed to integrate that business and the quality of the business that we've acquired, it's better than we expected. We haven't seen any loss of market share from that. Turning to the M&A point. We're still very active on the M&A pipeline. Clearly, our focus in the last few months has been on the move to the Main Market. And we're also cautious that leverage on a pro forma basis of 1.6x, albeit that we're targeting to get back to 1.4x by the end of the year. So M&A, sometimes you just can't time. It's not something that you can program. We're still very much active in the marketplace. And if there's a deal to be done, we'll very much look at that. But we're very conscious of where our leverage is, and that's the focus at the moment to delever. David?

Yes. It's David Brockton from Deutsche Numis. Can I ask 2 actually around the kit more generally. I'm just struck by the West Africa contract example you gave. And I guess one pushback I've occasionally got on the shares is that the customers own some kit as well. And I guess, what strikes me about that slide is there's such a breadth here. Can you just touch on within the customer landscape are there any that own that breadth of kit now? Or is there a requirement to use you in pretty much most situations or alternative rental provider? So that's the first sort of, I guess, rambling question. And then the second question, just in terms of lead times on U.K., can you just touch on what's happening there, please?

Sure. In terms of customers owning equipment, it's a whole range. And I think what we said before is our best estimate is for Survey & Robotics, customers own probably 65% of the equipment in the marketplace. But when we came to market in 2021, we talked about an increasing propensity to rent being 1 of the 4 growth drivers. We very much see that continuing. And it's not just about the equipment. It's actually about the people, because you need the domain knowledge and the experience to be able to maintain, repair or mobilize the equipment, deal with the logistics, the freight forwarding, 24/7 support. So we are definitely seeing an increase in propensity to rent. In terms of what customers can do what, whilst some customers in Survey & Robotics own a lot of equipment, some own absolutely nothing, and sometimes, it's a bit in the middle. But there is not a rule to say that customers that own a lot of equipment do not rent the equipment. Some of our biggest renters own a lot of equipment. But what we're doing and how we're positioning the business, we've moved from 100% Survey & Robotics revenue back in 2016 to now 60%, which is -- increased because we've done the Seatronics deal recently. We got that down to below 50%. No one can package what we now put together. So the customer example that we talked through this morning, I wouldn't name the customer for commercial reasons, they do own Survey & Robotics equipment, so -- but they've taken our Survey & Robotics equipment. They don't own dry pumps. They certainly don't own winches. And the Asset Integrity suites of equipment that we put in place there for them was bespoke for that project. So not only are we providing equipment off the shelf, we're coming with the full package, including winches and people to do that complicated pooling, but also providing the domain knowledge to come up with solutions specific for a project. Customers generally can't do that anymore. And there's certainly no competitor out there that could pull that package together. So what's the alternative for the customer, split up that scope, but that is then introducing risk in terms of multiple supplier interfaces, multiple contracts, negotiations and multiple people to call when something goes wrong.

And on lead times?

Lead times, there's no real change from what we said previously. Some of the lead times we're seeing, certainly in the ROV tooling, is 6 months. In Survey & Robotics, a lot of the stuff is 10, 12, 14 weeks.

That's also one of the reasons that we've invested in the stock for both manipulator repair and cable molding, but manipulator repair in particular, actually end customers can get the kit quicker from us than they can through other people as well. So it's part of the investment.

Yes. Just to pick up on Ingrid's point there, one of the really nice things that came with the Seatronics deal was a manipulator service and repair business. Customers were having to wait up to 35 weeks to get the manipulators repaired simply because the lead time on some spares was 30 weeks. So we've deliberately spent a few million pounds on spares to put it on our shelf, and we're now turning around manipulator servicing jobs in 3 to 4 weeks, which is a massive benefit to our customers. And that's simply by leveraging the balance sheet that we've got.

Ashley Kelty, Panmure Liberium. I was just wondering if you've been seeing any impact on pricing as a result of U.S. tariffs. And are some of the tariff costs being passed on to yourselves?

Good question. So in terms of pricing of equipment that we are purchasing, we haven't seen any change there. In terms of how we are dealing with tariffs in the U.S., if we are mobilizing things like winches, for example, which are going to the U.S. for a specific job and are then coming back, we are now writing in tariff clauses into the contract, which are being accepted by customers. And the general theme seems to be that it's a bit of a pass-through, so they're doing exactly the same to their customer. So we've not got an issue there. The challenge for us is more around the Survey & Robotics equipment that's highly mobile. Tariffs is a pretty complex subject. We've spent months trying to understand how we can operate our business in a tariff environment, which we believe is here to stay. And we've worked it out. We've got a playbook. We think it will cost us very little. Put that into context, it's probably -- tariffs has probably cost us about $0.5 million year-to-date. So it's not significant. And where we do have an ability to pass it on, we will pass it on.