Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (AML) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. Thank you for joining the Aston Martin Lagonda 2023 Full Year Results Presentation and Q&A. I'm Lawrence Stroll, Executive Chairman. I am pleased to welcome alongside me today Amedeo Felisa, Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Lafferty, Chief Financial Officer. The historic year of our 110th anniversary, 2023, marked an important crossroads for Aston Martin Lagonda, an opportunity to reflect on our rich heritage and progress to date, whilst accelerating forward in our vision for the company to be the most desirable ultra-luxury British performance brand. It's now almost 4 years since I became Executive Chairman. As outlined at our Capital Markets Day in June '23, we have made tremendous progress within that time. We have transformed our iconic global brand, reinvigorated our product portfolio, and improved our balance sheet, supported by our long-term strategic partners. As a high performance car enthusiast myself, I take immense personal pride in the collection of stunning new models we've introduced to our community of owners and enthusiasts around the world. We've combined Aston Martin's renowned for timeless design and several craftsmanship with the very best performance, engineering and latest technology. In 2023, Aston Martin delivered significant financial and strategic progress. This has been driven by continued execution of our growth strategy and demand for ultra-luxury high-performance vehicles. We have created one of the strongest and most exciting product portfolios in our segment. Leveraging all the skills and knowledge from across the business, we are benefiting for our continued investment in product innovation, infusing ultra-luxury with high performance. Our brand position sets us apart as a truly unique business, while investment in people and leadership, which Amedeo will discuss shortly, positions us strongly for accelerated growth in the future. As we review 2023, it's clear this has been a year of growth for Aston Martin. Supported by a rich mix of sales, we have taken average selling prices to record levels with 18% year-on-year revenue growth. This resulted in a significantly enhanced gross margin, continuing progress towards our long-standing target of around 40% gross margin in '24, which Doug will take you through in more details. The 2 graphs showing ASP and gross margin improvements since I took over as Executive Chairman in 2020, highlight the significant progress we have made. We are benefiting from our commitment to ensuring all new models at a minimum 40% gross margin. Our journey of product transformation reached an important strategic milestone in 2023, as we commenced delivery of DB12, the first of our next generation of front engine sports cars. Launched to tremendous excitement 9 months ago, we continue to receive positively acclaim. DB12 has been named Car of the Year by the Robb Report magazine and confirmed by Autocar magazine as the true Super GT, toppling Italy's finest in a group test. The model has driven reappraisal of Aston Martin amongst new audiences, while is at the same time engaging our loyal customers. Specials continue to play a significant role, demonstrating the company's unique ability to operate at the very highest levels of the luxury automotive segment. This included Aston Martin Valkyrie, along with the first Valkyrie Spider, the production of the DBR22 and the 110th anniversary celebration Valour. The DBS770 Ultimate, the most powerful product in Aston Martin ever, was unveiled in January 2023, with the entire run sold out before production commenced. We also continue to explore the experience for the demand for the world's most powerful ultra-luxury SUV, DBX707, which has added more industry awards to its collection and enjoyed strong visibility as the Official FIA Medical Car of F1. We continue to invest in establishing Aston Martin as an ultra-luxury, high-performance brand, supercharged for our continued involvement in the pinnacle of motorsport, Formula One. Proven to bring our brand to new audiences and drive heightened consideration of our products. Just last weekend, the latest season of Drive to Survive was released globally featuring Aston Martin in Episode 1. The most watched show on Netflix in more than 40 countries, the series prominently brings our brand and products to millions of viewers. Capitalizing on the prevailing trend of personalization within the realm of luxury goods, our Q by Aston Martin bespoke division has helped to increase options revenue, whilst providing the tailored service our clients are seeking. The key landmark in that ultra-luxury retail strategy was achieved in June 2023, as we opened our first global flagship Q New York on one of the most prominent corners of Midtown Manhattan. Aligned with our renewed corporate identity, the new showroom brings the highest levels of our Q by Aston Martin bespoke service to North America for the very first time, providing the most sophisticated luxury specification experience available anywhere in the world. 2024 has already proven to be another significant and exciting one for the brand with a highly anticipated arrival of our new products. This includes the completion of our thrilling lineup of new generation front engine sports cars with the recent unveiling advantage, receiving significant excitement from dealers, customers and international media. I hope you enjoyed seeing the promotional video with Fernando Alonso at the start of this presentation. Boosted by the addition of over 150 brake horsepower, this is the fastest and most driver-focused vantage in the famous nameplate's 74-year history. A model which represents our commitment to delivering a thrilling driving experience and integrating the very best in model sport technologies. Joining Vantage and DB12 later this year, we will reveal a new flagship sports car to complete our front engine portfolio, replacing DBS. Continuing our highly desirable Specials program, we have an incredible mid-engine hybrid supercar on the horizon in the Valhalla. Prototype testing has already taken place, and we're currently on course to enter production before the end of this year, marking its key step in our electrification program. Critical to the success of our electrification strategy is a supply agreement with Lucid Group, a world-leading electric vehicle technologies company. The long-term relationship will help propel our first battery electric vehicles as the company develops alternatives to the internal combustion engine. Recognizing changes in our market, we will operate a blended drivetrain approach between 2025 and 2030, including FEV and BEV, with a clear plan to have a lineup of electric sports cars and SUVs. And finally, we look forward to continued expansion of our ultra-luxury retail strategy in 2024. This will include opening to our new showroom at the Peninsula Hotel in Tokyo and building on the success of Q New York, a second flagship in London, with a high-profile location now identified. These and other advancements will support the delivery of the company's near and medium-term financial targets, including achieving positive free cash flow generation in the second half of 2024, as we unleash the power of our brand and continue our growth trajectory. And with that, I would like to hand over to Amedeo.

Thank you, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone. Before introducing Doug for the financials, I would like to provide some insight on the operational progress we made as an organization in 2023. We are led by one guiding principle, no one builds an Aston Martin on their own. And I believe that the significant progress we have made in 2023 demonstrates the strong speed of collaboration. As Lawrence has outlined, 2023 was a landmark year for Aston Martin portfolio transformation. Demonstrating our operational progress, we have successfully delivered new core and special models to the market, the majority of which were in line with our initial production plan. Commercially, the successful launch of DB12 has reinforced the market opportunity we saw in our new positioning and set the basis for our future product direction. Media and customer feedback about the design, performance and driving dynamics of the car has been incredible. Whilst incredibly proud of the step-up made with DB12, the ramp-up of the production was lower than expected, as it was temporarily affected by supply readiness and integration of the new EE architecture that supports the fully developed infotainment system. That said, the process of resolving this initial production ramp up has provided valuable learnings. Particularly, we have positioned us well for the future model launches as we embrace our culture of operational improvement, mitigate the supply chain risk, and focus on quality, in line with our ultra-luxury positioning. I am pleased by the continuous improvement and actions we have taken to align the business for the future direction. As a business, we are supporting and developing our people, whilst delivering successful model launches to drive our growth ambition. In 2023, we are strengthening our team with expertise in important areas such as software and supply chain. We have expanded our commitment to training, investing in electrification skill, and in-house capability to complement our landmark supply agreement with Lucid Group and strong technology partners. Our investment in people goes far beyond new hires. In 2023, we formalized a new company values and our commitment to become a great place to work. This runs alongside the completion of the first phase of renovation of our Gaydon headquarters. We have also expanded employee engagement program, including through the introduction of our first all-employee share plan, giving colleagues a sense of ownership of our business. And we expanded our Racing.Green. sustainability strategy with updated targets related to carbon emission and biodiversity. Following last year's progress, let me now look to our future operational goals. At our Capital Markets Day in June '23, I had planned 4 areas of mid- and long-term priorities for Aston Martin. Our suppliers. Working with suppliers as partners, ensuring the readiness and commitment to support our product innovation and the ramp-up of new models. And critically, further strengthening relations with our key strategic suppliers, including Mercedes Benz, Lucid, and Geely. Manufacturing. Driving continuous improvement in our product launch program, whilst at the same time upskilling teams to support our electrification transition and targeting 0 accidents across our facilities. People. Attracting and retaining the best talent as we target Great Place to Work certification and uplift female representation in leadership position. Sustainability. Continuing our journey to net zero and maximum energy efficiency. They are priorities that our entire organization are engaged with and focused on as we drive the future growth ambition at Aston Martin. I will now hand over to Doug to take you through the financial results of the outlook.

Thank you, Amedeo, and good morning all. To complete today's full year results presentation, I'll take you through our financial performance for the year before spending some time on our 2024 guidance, our medium-term outlook, which remain unchanged. As Lawrence and Amedeo have discussed, 2023 was a landmark year for the transformation of our portfolio. This has also been reflected in our financial performance as we made significant progress towards our near- and medium-term financial targets. Importantly, this includes progress towards achieving our long-standing positive free cash flow inflection point in the second half of 2024. As shown on the 2023 financial summary slide, we have delivered continuous improvement since 2020, with a positive trajectory across our wholesales, revenues, and adjusted EBITDA. This demonstrates the impact of our evolving product portfolio, continual operational improvements, and ultra-luxury, high-performance brand strategy outlined earlier in the presentation. Starting at the top of the slide, total wholesales increased by 3% to 6,620 units, driven by 14% growth in Sports and GT models. Revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to GBP 1.6 billion, which reflects the continued execution of our growth strategy and enriched product portfolio with increased options revenue helping to drive our average selling prices to record levels. Adjusted EBITDA of GBP 306 million increased by 61%, delivering 490 basis points of year-on-year margin expansion, primarily driven by a 42% increase in gross profit. Q4 was a record EBITDA quarter for Aston Martin at GBP 175 million, a 58% increase year-on-year. Q4 performance reflected the expected growth in Sports and GT models with the production ramp-up of DB12 supported by Specials volumes including Aston Martin, Valkyrie Spiders, DBR22 and Valour models. Looking at the full year wholesales and ASPs in more detail. The split of our wholesales is shown on the left-hand side of the slide. Sports and GT volumes represented 53% of the mix, supported by deliveries of DBS770 Ultimate and DB12, despite the slight delays incurred to the initial production ramp-up. It is worth noting that due to the timing of DB12 deliveries in December, total wholesale volumes were temporarily ahead of retail volumes. Prior to the initial delays, retails across the portfolio were ahead of wholesales for the year, and following the unwinding of this position early in 2024, we expect to see retails outpace wholesales again going forward, aligned with our demand-led luxury retail strategy. Moving to SUV wholesales. We are delighted that the DBX707 is now clearly established as the benchmark in the ultra-luxury SUV segment. DBX707 volumes increased by 25% in 2023 and represented 71% of SUV wholesales, up from 52% in the prior year, with this dynamic benefiting ASPs and margin. This demand underpins the next phase of the models evolution as the DBX707 will become the sole SUV model marketed in 2024. We expect this to further support our margin expansion. Overall SUV volumes were down 9% year-on-year, reflecting the portfolio transition and the previously mentioned elevated Q4 2022 wholesales following disruptions earlier in 2022. As I've also mentioned, the overall contribution from our special models was strong this year. This comprised a mature cadence of Aston Martin Valkyries, including the first Aston Martin Valkyrie Spiders, as well as DBR22 and initial Valour deliveries. This demonstrates the company's unique ability to operate at the very highest levels of the luxury automotive segment, attracting both new customers and collectors to the brand. On the right-hand side of the slide is wholesale average selling price, which was, again, one of the highlights of the year. Both core and total ASPs reached record highs, reflecting our enhanced product portfolio, supported by the repositioning of an investment in the Aston Martin brand over the last 4 years, with our ASPs achieving a CAGR of 14% over that period. In the year, core ASP was GBP 188,000, an increase of 6% year-on-year, driven by strong pricing dynamics and favorable mix from DBS770 Ultimate, DBX707, V12 Vantage Roadster, and the new DB12. Total ASP of GBP 231,000 for the year increased 15%, also reflected in the Specials program I've mentioned. We are addressing the growing demand for unique personalized products in the ultra-luxury market, which drove increased options revenue in 2023, further supporting our ASPs and margin progression, which I'll come on to shortly. Moving on to the geographical split on the next slide. As you can see, wholesale volumes remained well-balanced across all regions in 2023, reflecting our global demand, which is strengthened by our strategic marketing activities and relationship with the Aston Martin Formula One team. The Americas and EMEA, excluding the U.K., were our largest regions in 2023, collectively representing 61% of overall wholesales, primarily driven by strong demand for DBX707, DBS770 Ultimate and DB12. We also grew volumes in the U.K. by 3% year-on-year, driven by demand for our Sports and GT models. Finally, APAC volumes declined 20% year-on-year, but excluding China, these were up 12% year-on-year, driven by DBX707 and DBS770 Ultimate volumes. In China, volumes decreased by 47% compared to 2022. This was driven by a combination of market dynamics and the lapping of 2022's peak in DBX straight 6 volumes. China continues to be a market where we see significant opportunity for long-term growth, and we're excited to bring our new portfolio of products to this market. Moving to gross margin. This remains a key building block of our future ambitions and financial targets with, as Lawrence mentioned, our commitment to ensuring all new models achieve a minimum 40% gross margin. 2023 saw us make a significant improvement of 650 basis points towards our long-standing target of around 40%, with a gross margin of 39.1% for the year. This reflects the benefits of our ongoing portfolio transformation, which drove favorable pricing dynamics as well as product mix and volume growth. As you can see on the slide, our core range gross margin performance was the largest driver of the overall improvement, contributing approximately 450 basis points year-on-year. We improved our mix towards DBS770 Ultimate, DB12, and DBX707, as I described earlier. As we continue to deliver our next generation of sports cars, we expect gross margin from the core range to continue improving. Limited edition high-margin specials are also an important part of our overall strategy, and these drove approximately 360 basis points of year-on-year improvements to overall gross margin with Aston Martin Valkyries including Aston Martin Valkyrie Spider, Valour and DBR22 deliveries in 2023. As mentioned, through our strategic focus on addressing the demand for luxury personalization, we delivered increased options revenue, which further supported our margin improvements. These positive improvements were partially offset by general inflationary impacts on higher manufacturing, logistics and other costs, and foreign exchange headwinds. On this slide, you can see our adjusted EBITDA, which increased by 61% year-on-year to GBP 306 million, with a margin expansion of 490 basis points to 18.7%. The biggest positive drivers were the strong pricing dynamics, mix and options revenue growth. This was, as you can see, partially offset by foreign exchange headwinds, general inflationary impacts on the cost base, and our ongoing planned investment in the brand through marketing activities to support our future growth, leading to a 26% increase in adjusted operating expenses. During the year, we also recognized GBP 11 million due to the positive revaluation of our investment in AMR GP Holdings Limited. In the table on the right-hand side, and as previously guided, depreciation and amortization increased year-on-year, driven by the timing of our Specials program deliveries as well as accelerated amortization of capitalized development costs ahead of the launch of our next-generation sports cars. Our adjusted operating loss reduced to GBP 80 million from GBP 118 million despite the 25% increase in D&A. Net adjusted financing expense decreased significantly versus 2022 to GBP 92 million, influenced by the positive GBP 61 million noncash FX revaluation of our U.S. dollar-denominated debt. Finally, adjusting items, including ERP implementation costs, one-off legal expenses, movements in the fair value of outstanding warrants, and financing expenses associated with the transactions we concluded during the year. Now looking at our capital expenditure, cash flow and balance sheet. Capital expenditure in 2023 totaled GBP 397 million, as we continue to invest in our future product pipeline, including our electrification program, which will deliver significant future benefits to the company. As we announced in June 2023, we entered into a new strategic supply arrangement with Lucid Group and made our initial technology access payment of GBP 27 million in Q4 2023. Excluding this, our CapEx was in line with our initial guidance. Free cash outflow increased to GBP 360 million, including a GBP 63 million outflow in Q4. We guided at Q3 to positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter. However, due to the timing of DB12 and Valour deliveries at the end of the year, we did miss this target with a year-on-year receivables increase of GBP 82 million. We saw the related receivables unwind in January this year. As shown on the slide, we also increased our CapEx by GBP 111 million for the reasons I just outlined, and this was also reflected in our free cash flow in 2023. At the end of 2023, our net debt position increased to GBP 814 million, whilst we reduced our net leverage ratio to 2.7x. I will return to our net debt position shortly after providing some further color on free cash flow. Starting with the loss before tax and adding back D&A and other items, including tax cash paid, resulted in GBP 231 million of cash generation. Working capital was an GBP 86 million outflow, an increase from a GBP 15 million outflow in 2022. This was primarily driven by the GBP 82 million increase in receivables resulting from the timings of the delivery of DB12 and Valour in December 2023. As I mentioned, those related receivables unwinding in January 2024. This was partially offset by a decrease in inventories of GBP 12 million due to reduced work-in-progress and finished goods and a GBP 51 million increase in payables due to higher production in December 2023. As we delivered Specials throughout the year and, in particular, during Q4, the balance of deposits held reduced by GBP 66 million. After CapEx, as I previously described, and net interest payments of GBP 109 million, our free cash outflow for the year was GBP 360 million. We expect this to materially improve in 2024, as we execute on our new model deliveries, helping us to reach the positive free cash flow inflection point in the second half of the year. Turning to cash and debt. We ended the year with GBP 392 million of cash, reflecting the free cash outflow, as I've described, partly offset by the proceeds from August's placing and proceeds from the new shares issued to Geely. As previously guided, we also redeemed a portion of the outstanding second lien notes in November 2023. As described earlier, net debt increased to GBP 814 million. However, due to the strong EBITDA performance, our net leverage ratio at the end of 2023 reduced to 2.7x from 4x at the end of 2022. We continue to focus on our mid-term deleveraging target. Now looking ahead to our 2024 guidance, which remains unchanged. We expect 2024 to deliver another year of significant strategic and financial progress. We remain on track to substantially achieve our 2024-2025 targets in 2024, driven by continued strong demand for our products and boosted by the next-generation sports car launches of Vantage and our final front engine sports car, the flagship DBS replacement later in the year. In terms of volumes, in 2024, we expect to deliver high-single-digit percentage growth, driving enhanced profitability and EBITDA, with gross margin further improving to achieve our long-standing target of around 40%. This combination of volume growth and margin enhancement is expected to deliver EBITDA margin expansion continuing into the low 20s. Important to note is the profile of 2024, which is predominantly driven by the launch timings and ramp-up of the next-generation sports cars. We expect wholesale volumes to be heavily weighted to the second half of the year and for that to result in significant growth in gross profit and EBITDA in the second half as compared with the prior year. Further to this, we expect that our continued capital investment in new product developments to support our growth strategy will total around GBP 350 million in 2024, and for this to be relatively evenly spread across the year. As I've mentioned, we expect free cash flow to materially improve in 2024, and to achieve our targeted inflection point for positive free cash flow generation in the second half of the year, driven by the timing of wholesale volumes. Finally, in line with our Q3 2023 results announcement, we expect to refinance our outstanding debt in the first half of 2024. We are in the advanced stages of preparation and look forward to launching this process in due course. Our medium-term outlook for 2027-2028 on the right-hand side of the slide remains unchanged. So to close, and as Lawrence and Amedeo have outlined, with our portfolio, brand and operations, 2024 will be another significant year for Aston Martin's growth. We thank all the teams that have supported the business to deliver the objectives this year, and we'll continue to focus on ensuring we deliver value to all of our stakeholders. Thank you. And I'll now hand back to Lawrence before the operator begins the Q&A session.

Thank you, Doug and Amedeo. To conclude, in 2023, Aston Martin delivered significant strategic milestones and further financial progress. Joining DBX707, the best performance SUV in the luxury segment, and now the highly acclaimed DB12 and Vantage move us another step closer to having the newest and the strongest product portfolio in our segment. With a completely refreshed product range, our showrooms are being transformed. With 60% customers new to the brand, we are not just driving reappraisals of Aston Martin, but are welcoming new franchise inquiries and investment from our dealer partners. These innovations, along with operational advancements, will support the delivery of the company's near- and medium-term financial targets, which remain unchanged. This includes achieving our targeted inflection point for positive free cash flow generation in the second half of 2024. I could not be more excited about the future as we further unleash the power of the brand and to continue our growth trajectory. And on that, I would like to open for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from George Galliers from Goldman Sachs.

I wanted to ask 3 questions, if I may. The first one is related to volumes. The top end of your guidance for this year suggests volumes of somewhere between 7,000 and 7,300 units. Could you give us some insight into the anticipated split between the models that you see for this year? And also, although you've said it will be heavily weighted to the second half, could you also help us a little bit in better understanding the distribution by quarter? Second question I had was with respect to the new Vantage. Looking back at the DB12, I know many journalists are comparing the interior quality to a Bentley. And similarly, the performance in driving dynamics has been very well received by mainstream media. Are you content that the media praise is sufficiently converting into consumer interest and ultimately orders? And have there been any lessons learned from the DB12 introduction that are going to result in you doing something differently with the Vantage in order to maximize consumer impressions? And then finally, maybe for Doug, just with regards to customer deposits, they still form a substantial part of your net cash balance. In terms of treasury and liquidity management, are you content with this set up? Do you have a target max threshold of the amount of cash liquidity which should be contributed by customer deposits?

It's Lawrence. I'll take the first 2. So firstly, DB12 got off to the greatest launch that we've ever had in our 111-year history with thousands of customer orders before anyone ever saw or touched the car based on the launch that happened in April in the South of France before the Monaco Grand Prix. We've never had a launch with that level of customer retail that goes into thousands. Then as you rightly point out, when the journalists got to drive the cars, got critically acclaimed as the best front-engine sports car probably ever made in the world. So that's a hell of a statement comparing to our competitors in other parts of the world. And I'm sure you've seen in magazine articles. So before we get into interiors, with the driving dynamics of the car that were so impressive, our DB12 really took a giant step from DB11 in terms of driving dynamics, in terms of horsepower, and what you're talking about in terms of our new interiors. So it really focused on delivering the super GT we were looking for, superb performance, outperforming our competitors with the greatest, newest, touch screen and [indiscernible] interiors. So we couldn't have been happier with the reception by the automotive world. The customers' orders back that up, and we are now ramping up, as you know, our next car, Vantage, which we launched last Monday, as the trilogy of cars at Silverstone with our Formula One car as our GT3 race car. Same level of excitement in the new Vantage versus the predecessor model, far superior, 650 horsepower, new vehicle driving dynamics, new dampers, new suspensions, and again, new interiors. Always the biggest complaint in the previous models was our interiors were dated. So we've addressed that and took it to a new level. And ultimately, later in the year, you'll see our DBS replacement, which will be our most exciting front-engine sports car flagship. If you look at our history, George, on a full run rate on all of our predecessors, DB11, predecessor Vantage and DBS, on a full run rate, we had made about 6,000 front-engine sports cars, not counting SUV and not counting Specials. Our estimation is, because those vehicles are so far superior than the predecessors, and because Aston Martin has such a higher level of consumer awareness in the last 3 years, and because the products are superior and 60% of our customers are new and the spillover of Formula One, we see, on a full year run rate, much more than 6,000 cars for all these new front-engine sports cars should easily be able to surpass the volume as we did with the predecessors. The media praise, I addressed. I think the next question was for you, Doug.

Yes, sure. So George, I'll take the third question. I think in essence, no, there's no maximum threshold target or anything like that when it comes to the balance customer deposits. Obviously, it's something which has been fairly consistent in the business over the last few years. What I would say is that the trend that balance is held and the ratio has been sort of trending down over the last few years. I would expect deposits balance to further decline during this year as we conclude deliveries of the Valkyrie program and the Valour. But over time, I suspect there'll be a bit of ebbing and flowing depending on exactly what kind of Specials we're bringing into the program, how quickly we turn those around. So for example, on the DBR22, deposits collected, cars delivered within the same year, and obviously, on other programs, the deposit profile will be slightly different. But there's no particular target we're working to. But obviously, it's on our minds that we need to manage that in the context of those orders.

Great. And may I just follow up just in terms of the distribution of the volumes on a quarterly basis for this year? Can you give any insight there above and beyond the heavily weighted to 2H commentary?

So I don't know we're going to go into quarterly, George. But obviously, we've guided to a heavy weighting to the second half of the year. And I think, clearly, that's by virtue of the fact that we've just launched the Vantage. So that will sort of commence its ramp up now, will ramp up slowly in Q2, and then it will be running more at its rate in Q3 and Q4. So one might assume that the first quarter is going to be DB12 and DBX predominantly, and then we'll really hit our stripes in the second half of the year. So that's how I'd encourage you to think about just the profile of the delivery of the business this year. I think Specials will be delivered across the course of the year, and then, of course, the final next-generation sports car comes later in the year. So that's how I think you should probably think about the profile.

The next question comes from Henning Cosman from Barclays.

Congratulations on the execution in Q4. I also have 3 questions, if I may. The first one perhaps on orders, order intake, and order book. You haven't given us the disclosure this time that you had done in recent releases. So I was hoping for a bit more color there, specifically perhaps on the DB12. Is that sold out now for 2024? And if you could maybe a bit of an indication on what order books look like model by model, as you have done in previous releases? That's the first question. The second question is on ARPU trajectory. Looks very good on that slide there with this continuous improvement, especially also in the core ASPs. Is it fair to assume further rising ASPs or ARPUs versus 2023? And if you could give us a bit of perhaps building blocks of that, how to think about like-for-like pricing mix? There were, as Doug pointed out, of course, quite a few limited series with the Ultimate and the V12 Vantage. So what that could look like against that what one would think is a fairly tough comp. And then finally, perhaps third question. On the underlying unit and ARPU assumptions for 2027-2028. If you could give us a sort of rough split how you see those units between SUV, Sports, GT, Valhalla, Specials Limited Series, just roughly through to -- or indeed in 2027-'28, so we have something to extrapolate for, that would be great?

It's Lawrence. I'll take the first 2. DB12, as I mentioned on the last call when we launched the car in the Cannes Film Festival prior to Monaco Grand Prix, we had taken several thousand customer orders at launch. Those were the cars that we pretty much delivered and are delivering, but pretty much delivered in the third and fourth quarter of last year. We are currently sold out on DB12 to the end of third quarter of this year. We should be sold out to the end of the year and even into next year quite comfortably. The reason we aren't is we've been delaying -- dealers have just received -- in the third, fourth week of December, beginning of January, they just received their dealer demonstrators. So we have a pipeline of customers waiting to test drive globally all through the next weeks. So we feel comfortably that certainly by end of March, we'll be sold out for the end of the year. Again, if demos would have been on time, would have been sold out already today. But as I say, we're sold out through the third quarter. On the other models, we only launched Vantage on Monday of last week. I can tell you the excitement through the press. Hope you've seen some of the articles' headlines, "The Porsche 911 Beater - Aston Martin Sports Cars To Do Levels". So we're getting the same level of response from the automotive journalists and level of excitement that we received from our DB12 super tour to now our Vantage sports car, obviously, after a different segment of the market. And of course, we will have our DBS replacement coming at the end of this year. As I said on the last call heading, historically, we ran 6,000 front engine sports cars when you put all the volumes together on the predecessors for each car. These cars are far superior. The ASPs are more expensive. The option intakes are much greater. The consumer awareness to the brand due to Formula One due to the new product portfolio is much higher and 60% of the customers are new. So in total, we see far exceeding the previous volumes for the predecessors once we're at full run rate for each car. In addition, DBX707 gained 23% in 2023, quite a substantial number. So still the hottest or one of the hottest in luxury, high performance. We took over 20% share of luxury, high-performance market in only 3 years. I think, quite a great statistic. So it keeps remaining 23% ahead of '23, and we will keep that same momentum in. We're going to have a refresh of DBX707 coming out very shortly that will keep that volume trajectory upwards. So what's very exciting is for all the dealers within the next few weeks, they're going to have all brand-new product, all brand-new sports cars, brand-new SUV, Valhalla coming brand-new. So unlike some of our other competitors that are selling 3-, 4-, 5-year-old product in our showrooms, we will be the only ones that will have every product absolutely brand new, which is what we've been working so hard on the last 3 years to be able to deliver. We've now reached that point.

Henning, it's Doug. I'll take the second question on -- that we referred to on the ASP. So really pleased with last year, 15% growth on the total ASP in the business was fantastic. That was driven by some pure pricing, a lot of mix. So Lawrence was just talking about the transition in the portfolio. Obviously, that benefits our ASPs. We were pleased with the progress that we've made from a personalization and an options take point of view and hope to see that continue to grow as we come through this year. And I think you mentioned it yourself, the mix of Specials that we've seen in the year. So I'm expecting us to continue on the same path in 2024, driven by those same featuring items. So as we bring the new Vantage, as we bring the final next-generation sports car, and as we look at pricing relative to what we're bringing to the market, I think we'll continue to move in a positive direction on ASP. And fundamentally, if you look at our gross margin delivery across last year, we came pretty close to hitting that 40% number that we've talked about for a long time. And as we've guided, we expect to achieve that 40% this year, facilitated in no small part by the momentum that we have had in pricing.

Okay. I guess, I'll take Lawrence's comments for the 6,000 exceeding on the front engine portfolio plus the 707. I take that as an indication for '27-'28 as well, right?

Yes, I think that's probably a good place to think about it. I think -- we expect to see consistent volume growth in this business out to that sort of '27-'28 period. The 6,000 sports cars that Lawrence mentioned, I think, the waiting will favor sports cars over DBX. So...

I think you're looking at a 6,000/4,000 kind of ratio, plus the Specials on top of that would be a very fair estimation.

Next question comes from Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank.

The first one is a follow-up a bit on what you just said on the options for the DB12 versus, for example, DB11. Could you give us a rough estimate of the options as percent of ASP for that model, and how it changed in the new model versus the old one? And then the second question would be just on the cash generation and your target to be free cash flow positive in H2 '24. Thinking ahead after that, should we expect always a seasonality very weighted to H2 also in cash? Or do you think you can reach a relatively sustainable quarter-by-quarter positive free cash flow after that?

Okay. So I think both of those are for me. So on the first one on options and personalization, as I said, we're really pleased with the progress that we're making. So if I look at the contribution to ASP from the core range over the course of last year, that improved by 200 basis points. That percentage is now over 15% for the first time in this business. So we're making good progress on our journey to improving our ASPs and driving our gross margins through that part of the profile of the delivery of the cars in personalization terms. And of course, that's supported by the things that Lawrence has alluded to earlier in terms of transforming the dealerships and ensuring that the brand is represented appropriately. Dealerships are flagship stores in New York and others that we'll be opening. So that all adds towards the benefit in that regard. As to free cash flow. So yes, we intend for the inflection point to be in the second half of this year, and for that to be the point at which we turn sustainably free cash flow positive. So over the course of the last couple of years, we've had a heavy skew to, let's say, the second half of the year, and in particular, Q4. We know the reasons why that was in 2022 and 2023. We've talked about the reasons why that phenomenon occurs in 2024, given the transition of the portfolio to, quite frankly, what's going to be super good line-up of cars by the time we meet the end of the year. And we believe that, that will stand us in really good stead moving into 2025, with really positive momentum in this business to deliver sustainably free cash flow positive and hopefully a bit more of a steady cadence in terms of what the quarters deliver from '25 onwards.

And that would then, from '25 onwards, also be the case on earnings, I guess, and it is the case. Okay.

Yes. Look, I think -- yes, look, the intention is to have a much more stable delivery and cadence. And I think once we've got all the cars launched and we're running at the appropriate rates in the factories, there's no reason to believe there should be serious discrepancies between what we deliver in the year. Of course, given that the high margin profile of some of the Specials, then they also -- you might experience some peaks and troughs with regard to that. But from a core portfolio point of view, I'd like to think that we can have a lot of this delivered '25 onwards.

Next question comes from Daniel Roeska from Bernstein.

Lawrence, maybe 2 for you to start. You just mentioned '24 is the year where we get to see all the models kind of next to each other. What are your key to-do items for the team in Gaydon as you think about the upcoming weeks to ensure kind of a smooth production in '24? And maybe secondly, more strategically, you've worked with Lucid for a while now. And I just want to ask what surprised you -- asking in a different way, any additional ideas and opportunities you've uncovered when you think about the technology that's about to come and pass them? And then, Doug, do you expect the miss on free cash flow in Q4 to influence the negotiations for the debt refinancing? And maybe very bluntly, can you answer with a yes or no whether that refinancing will include any equity this year? So kind of just a question whether there's an equity raise among that debt refinancing as well?

On the first question on '24 production, we are extremely confident. We, like every other OEM, had our challenges on HMI software at the initial launch of DB12. Those challenges are now well behind us and we're moving on and building clean cars. Like, again, every other OEM, new HMI is an ongoing process. It has a life of its own. It will constantly be upgraded, deliveries over the year, as we get more feedback from customers of what they're looking for. In these vehicles, we made our own Aston Martin interiors. They're not taken -- previously, as we've had Mercedes type of interiors. We could customize to our Aston Martin and to our customer needs. So with the software issues now comfortably behind us, we've never had any hardware issues or any manufacturing issues, we are beyond extremely confident to deliver on the '24 production plan. You should also be aware that the new DBX has the same infotainment, the new Vantage has the same infotainment, the new DBS replacement has the same infotainment. So what we experienced once, thankfully, we don't have experienced for each individual car. So to answer your question, super-duper confident. Second, on Lucid. We are in the same place we described last time. We confirmed that Lucid still has the best high performance powertrain from a technology point of view that's most suitable to personalize in an Aston Martin personalization for our needs. That is still exactly on track and on plan. We will have a portfolio of BEV vehicles, currently in plan we will have 4 in total. What's changed slightly since really we've all had this last conversation, we feel more immediate consumer demand for a PEV plug-in hybrid before we go to full BEV. I don't think we're the only ones feeling that. I think the market is feeling that. And we have addressed that and we will be coming out with a couple of very important plug-in hybrids before we launch our full BEV. So we'll have a full complement of ICE, PEV and BEV to last us well into the mid-2030s.

Yes, I guess, I'll pick up the last question, obviously. Look, talking about Q4, yes, we delivered a good Q4. I think somebody else mentioned earlier. It was a strong delivery that we needed to do. I was a little bit disappointed with the cash. Obviously, we've said that we were targeting free cash flow positive for Q4. But ultimately, it was a timing thing only. So we received the cash that you can see evident in the receivables balance at the end of Q4 in early January. So it's timing only. And as regards to the refinancing, nor we or our advisers, who we are working with, believe that, that does anything to diminish the confidence that we have in launching the refinancing in due course. So I think the answer to that question is no. And then the answer to your yes and no question is, we're not currently considering equity as part of the refinancing.

For our final question, we'll go to the line of Michael Tyndall from HSBC.

Mike Tyndall from HSBC. Just 2, if I may. One on DB12. I wonder if you could say, are you running now at full production rate on DB12? And then the second question is more around the Specials. I'm just wondering what the hurdle is for Specials in '24? Because Q4 looked like it was a very strong performance. What's the cadence as we go through '24 on the Specials side?

Yes, I can confirm DB12 is now at full production rate, has been for several weeks. So the answer to that question is yes.

Hey, Mike. I'm Doug. So on the Specials, yes, look, we had a strong Q4 with the Specials with delivery of the DBR22s, the initial delivery of the Valours and the Valkyries. And obviously, as we've moved through 2023, I think the mix of the Specials improved. And that's going to continue in 2024. So the finalization of delivery of the Valkyries, they're all with a similar sort of mix profile, the inclusion of the Spiders, where the first deliveries of those took place in the second half of 2023, so that will continue to assist the mix. And then we've still got the majority of the Valours to deliver, and we'll continue with our Specials program as we move through the year. So a really rich mix of Specials, again, in 2024, contributing to all of the things that we talked about earlier in terms of margin improvement and the considerable improvement in the financial performance of the business through the course of it in the second half.

Got it. If I could just have 1 quick follow-up. Valhalla, when do you think you'll open the order books for that?

The order books have been open. We've already sold more than our whole first year's production. So first year's production is all sold out. We will start delivering the car early next year. Yes, I think we're done with questions. I'd like to thank everybody. Obviously, very exciting times. The years of very hard work are now bearing the fruits of all that labor with all these fantastic new cars, a complete new lineup. And being marketed by our fantastic exciting Formula One team has transformed this business as well to a new consumer, 60% new, to a younger consumer, the car enthusiast consumer, which is what Aston Martin is all about. And being able to blend that luxury we've always had with high performance really is a unique model in the high-performance, luxury OEMs, and I think we're unique in that space. I hope everybody watches the Grand Prix this weekend in Bahrain and cheers for us. So thank you, and hope we answered all your questions.

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.